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drbubb

Newbie Stock trading - to gain Mastery

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Newbie Stock trading - to gain Mastery

/ I put on display here, some of the Tools I use, using Real time investing ideas - warts & all /

I am going to work with some New stock traders, who (eventually) want to gain mastery of stock trading.

We will start small, and with a specific stock focus - & maintain some regular communication via a Viber chat, to be set up.

business-team-brainstorming-in-office-ma

In developing this program, I have a plan for how I will teach trading & investing... based on some ideas about training programs from a friend

who has trained many new people in a business he runs.

From conversations about how he trains people, I learned his Rules, which I will call MB's Training Rules.  - Summarized as follows:

MB’s method (of teaching a useful skill) include these phases:  
The TRAINEE must agree to:
1. Follow instructions,  starting with small projects
2. Monitor results & quality (Asking relevant questions along the way)
3. Makes notes on what is being learned
4. Take responsibility for the quality & results of his/her projects
5. Gain confidence by accepting praise & criticism (Gains & Losses)
6. Repeat with larger & larger projects, until full mastery is gained.
====

(I think these Rules can be applied to stock trading as with any other useful skill to be mastered.)

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MONITORING-a-Stock Project / Comment & Questions are needed from Trainees

Initially, we will start with MONITORING a stock of my choosing - It may be trading outside the PH.

And I will ask (the main, active) participants to Make Notes &/or Ask questions as the stock trading progresses.

There will be some guidelines about the minimum number of comments & questions that I expect each week.

And the project on specific stock may end, if/ when :

+ The stock price falls below the "Stop Loss level" (c.f. C$1.50 on WILD)

+ If the active participant(s) want to end the project, by "taking profits"

+ If the project leader (me!) wants to take profits, or even end the project in a loss

If the participants fail to post the minimum number of comments or questions on the viber chat, the Leader can end the arrangement at any time thereafter

===

Here is the Initial stock I have chosen...

CA:WILD.t / WildBrain Ltd. (TSE) ... 5yr: 2yr-L: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / MONITORING Starts at: C$1.60
EGjT0p7.gif
 
NEWS & Price on WILD.t: click here

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REASONS I chose this stock, WILD / Wildbrain is because...

My active trainee-participants may be able to assist me in assessing Wildbrain's characters and its entertainment content, which is not in my own wheelhouse.

Wildbrain can be thought of as "a children's Disney," but with less than 1/1000th of Disney's market cap.

"Owns the world’s largest independent library of children’s content, at 13,000 half-hours." > Aug. 29, 2019 News Report, when new CEO was announced

WILD can be thought of as a turn-around situation. It has brought in new management who have invested about C$30Million of their own money. (see below)

Here's WILD with a C$274m MktCap (@$1.60) against DIS with US$253 Billion (@$140).

Prices over the last 5 years... update : reverse / C$1.60 (US$1.22) vs. $140 : 88X, 115X

PkL6Xj5.gif

 

Wikipedia : WildBrain Studios is a Vancouver-based studio and a subsidiary of WildBrain which produces animated and live-action programming.

WildBrain: Home Page / WILD have over 145 million subscribers on Youtube

WildBrain is the world's leading independent kids' content company, owner of Teletubbies, Degrassi, Caillou, Yo Gabba Gabba!, Inspector Gadget and more.

At WildBrain we make great content for kids and families. With approximately 13,000 half-hours of filmed entertainment in our library – one of the world’s most extensive – we are home to such brands as Peanuts, Teletubbies, Strawberry Shortcake, Caillou, Inspector Gadget and Degrassi. Our shows are seen in more than 150 countries on over 500 telecasters and streaming platforms. Our AVOD business – WildBrain Spark offers one of the largest networks of kids’ channels on YouTube, with over 145 million subscribers. We also license consumer products and location-based entertainment in every major territory for our own properties as well for our clients and content partners. Our television group owns and operates four family entertainment channels that are among the most-viewed in Canada.

WildBrain is headquartered in Canada with offices worldwide and trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: WILD).

Studios · ‎WildBrain Spark · ‎Investors

SNOOPY & Peanuts (41% stake, worth maybe $200M+, over 2/3rds of WILD's Mkt.Cap value)

In May 2017, Wildbrain announced that it would acquire Iconix's entertainment brands, including the 80% stake of Peanuts Worldwide and full rights to the Strawberry Shortcake brand, for $345 million.WILD officially took control of the properties on June 30, 2017. On May 13, 2018, WILD announced it had reached a strategic agreement for Sony Music Entertainment Japan to acquire 49% of its 80% stake in Peanuts Worldwide for $185 million, with WILD holding a 41% stake and SMEJ owning 39%. (SMEJ's consumer products division has been a licensing agent for the Peanuts brand since 2010.) / Source

Inspector Gadget: Magic Gadget (Full Episode)

1,817,202 views / Oct 1, 2013

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmZF6m66Z4c

LARVA - HUMAN HAND | Videos For Kids | Larva 2018

2,778,815 views / Mar 12, 2018

 

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WILD's LEADERSHIP

Eric-Ellenbogen-black.jpg

Eric Ellenbogen, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chair of WildBrain, has spent more than 30 years running entertainment businesses, including holding senior management roles as President of Broadway Video Entertainment (the TV and film production and distribution company founded by Lorne Michaels); President of Golden Books Family Entertainment; and President and CEO of Marvel Enterprises before its acquisition by Disney. With the backing of private equity, he co-founded Classic Media in 2000, which became one of the largest private owners of branded kids’ and family entertainment and was acquired by DreamWorks Animation (DWA) in 2012. At DWA, Mr. Ellenbogen became Co-Head of DreamWorks Classics and DreamWorks International Television, and was largely responsible for the company’s entry into the television business. Following DWA’s sale to NBCUniversal, Ellenbogen became Co-President of Classic Media, which was restarted as a business unit of NBCUniversal. Mr. Ellenbogen was a board director of Golden Books and Marvel, then both public companies, and is a Trustee of the Public Theater in New York City among other civic involvements. He is a graduate of Harvard College and holds an MBA from UCLA.

Roz-Nowicki-EVP-Peanuts-Worldwide-croppe

Roz Nowicki, Executive Vice President, Peanuts Worldwide, has a proven track record in global marketing, brand licensing, product development, and retail experience in the entertainment space. She oversees the robust global consumer products program for the Peanuts brand, and manages WildBrain’s Franchise Brands portfolio, including Strawberry ShortcakeMega Man: Fully Charged and Rev & Roll. Roz was previously the EVP of Global Sales and Retail at 20th Century Fox, where she led the consumer products strategy for TV properties such as The Simpsons and Family Guy, and films including Avatar and Ice Age. She also was EVP of Consumer Products at 4Kids Entertainment, working on Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Cabbage Patch Kids, and Yu-Gi-Oh!, and worked at both Universal Studios and The Walt Disney Company in Consumer Products.

> MORE: https://www.wildbrain.com/investors/management/

"new management (along with other insiders) ... have invested about C$30Million of their own money."

In total, 35,928,144 common and variable voting shares (“Shares”) were issued under the Rights Offering to raise $60.0 million in gross proceeds. Insiders purchased over 53% of the total number of Shares issued.

/ 2 /

....announced the successful completion today of its previously announced rights offering (the “Rights Offering”), which expired at 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on November 15, 2019. WildBrain issued the full allotment of 35,928,144 voting shares of the Company (“Voting Shares”) at a price of $1.67 per Voting Share for gross proceeds of $60.0 million. The Rights Offering was oversubscribed...

WildBrain will use $50.0 million of the proceeds of the Rights Offering to reduce its term loan, and the remaining $10.0 million, less offering expenses, for general working capital purposes. After this debt repayment, the Company’s net leverage ratio1 as at September 30, 2019 would be reduced from 5.66x to approximately 5.14x on a pro forma basis.

In addition, the previously announced amendment to the Company’s term loan agreement to set the net leverage covenant1 at 6.75x with no step downs for the remainder of the loan term is expected to take effect on November 26, 2019 upon this repayment.

> source:

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I made this Chart a few days ago, identifying a possible support level at about $1.44-1.45.

WILD.t : 6mo: 10d / MONITORING Started at: C$1.60 / Last $1.49

ED9QyTe.jpg

WILD Update. Friday close was C$1.49, up 0.03, +2.05%
Meantime, the General index, SPX, was down - 1.77%
That is an encouraging trend, showing impressive relative strength, and a bounce of likely key support.
It seems to have bounced off the support I Identified at $1.44-45

WILD-etc... 10d/ Close: $1.49 +0.03, Open: $1.51, High: $1.51, Low: $1.44 / Vol. 103,832

ie7xUPV.gif

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IMPORTANT SUPPORT HELD? 

WILD may be forming an important bottom at C$1.44-1.50

It looks like the support we identified at C$1.44-1.45 may have held.

And WILD (& the other stocks on this chart: DHX. VHI) may be on the way up once again)

A strong move up on Thu & Friday would help confirm that, and so would GOOD EARNINGS on Feb.13th

WILD-etc ... 10d / Last: $1.51 +0.05, +3.4%, vol. 41.9k

JQAwPvH.gif

BTW, I own the other stocks above too ( DHX, VHI, MIMI), and may comment on them here as well/

3 / 4 had. roughly similar charts to WILD.t

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I have not listened to this yet - Will comment after I do,

How to Make Millions In the Next Market Crash >

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGh_zhbuJCA

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On 2/6/2020 at 3:53 PM, drbubb said:

IMPORTANT SUPPORT HELD? 

BTW, I own the other stocks above too ( DHX, VHI, MIMI), and may comment on them here as well/

3 / 4 had. roughly similar charts to WILD.t

Here are all 4 stocks, which I am monitoring together ... 12-mo / Wild: 1.48 -0.03, VHI: 1.69, -0.06, MIMI: 0.35, -0.01

yJWYCLs.gif

Here's DHX alone / DHI Group ($3.06 +0.12, +4.08%) ... update - DHX released some Good Earnings News yesterday

- I hope we will see another positive reaction with WILD next week

gEsGSgI.gif

=== NEWS

Date ET Symbol Type Headline
2020-02-06 09:00 U:DHX News The Dice Tech Job Report: Remarkable demand for data-oriented technologists; smaller tech hubs amassing top tech talent
2020-02-05 16:15 U:DHX News DHI Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results
2020-01-29 09:00 U:DHX News The Dice 2020 Tech Salary Report: Satisfied technologists primed to innovate if employers shift to more holistic offerings
2020-01-23 16:15 U:DHX News DHI Group, Inc. to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results on February 5th, 2020

Fourth Quarter 2019 Financial Results

  • Total revenues1 were $37.7 million, up 1% on a sequential basis and down 1% year over year.
  • Dice1 revenues were $23.3 million, up 1% on a sequential basis and down 3% year over year.
  • eFinancialCareers revenues were $7.8 million, down 1% on a sequential basis and down 6% year over year.
  • ClearanceJobs revenues were $6.6 million, up 5% on a sequential basis and up 16% year over year.
  • Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, total revenues were up 1% on a sequential basis and down 1% year over year while eFinancialCareers was down 4% on a sequential basis and down 6% year over year.
  • Net income was $3.5 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, compared to net income of $2.9 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter.
  • Cash flow from operations was $3.9 million compared to $6.2 million in the year-ago quarter.
  • Adjusted EBITDA2 was $8.6 million, and Adjusted EBITDA margin2 was 23% compared to $8.3 million and 22% in the year-ago quarter.

===

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A BIG DAY for WILD-brain, today maybe? 

After what I call, a "Key Mid-channel bounce" (see explanation, below.)

This could be an ideal inflection point. Because Wildbrain is scheduled to release the Last Quarter's earnings today.

If the Earnings Report is better than expected, this could have a nice positive impact on the stock.

Prior earnings gave a hint of a possible emerging turnaround, and insiders invested Millions, in the recent share placement

So I am optimistic, though recent price action has been weak

WILD ... 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ Last: $1.53 + $0.04, Open: $1.49, High: $1.55, Low: $1.44. vol. 86,900

p2iYYyx.gif

===

The Set-up may be right for an important Low to be in place. WILD's stock could be set for a new longterm uptrend.

D_LxLTBU4AAnaqs.jpg

WILD is Not a Falling knife. That risk is avoided, so long as the Year's Low near $1.35-1.40 holds

Here's why:

+ Chart set-up: See the Down trending channel above, which I have identified with the labels: Upper & Lower.

I usually also draw a middle Line, a Mid-point, which I have identified with the "MId" label above.

Old & useful advice is: "Do not catch a falling knife (see above).... Wait for the stock price to Bounce" (off a support level.)

We have seen a BOUNCE. What we often see in a bottom formation is... First, a Low. like the Low <$1.40 in August.

Then, a bounce to the Top of the channel. or above, like the $2.22 in Oct.  Then, a final retest of the Low, but where

that retest happened near the old low, & at the mid-point of the channel. 

WILD is now a textbox example of the ideal Bottoming Set-up pattern.

+ Fundamentals: WILD has been losing money in recent quarters, but this may be set for a turnaround

+ Committed New Management: New management came and, and raised money, committing about C$30M of their own

funds, and this came at a higher price (C$1.67) than the current one (C$1.53.)

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A FORESHADOWING - of a future move up? (in WILD, "the children's Disney")

(Cross-market ratios can sometimes predict stock price moves, & extremes)

Their charts have looked a bit like mirror images, but this may change if WILD is bottoming

Here's an update of the WILD.t / DIS ratio - First, the two stocks : All: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr

08M6odG.gif

Ratio: WILD.t (C$1.53) / DIS ($141.85) = R-1.08%, up 8% from Low at/near 1.00%

xtKhTw8.png

WILD.t to DIS Ratio - has fallen from over 10%

Timing—: - Wild.t : - - DIS -- : Ratio
YE’ 2014: C$9.90 : $  94.19: 10.5%
YE’ 2015: C$8.48 : $108.08: 7.85%
YE’ 2016: C$7.06 : $104.22: 6.77%
YE’ 2017: C$4.50 : $107.51: 4.19%
YE’ 2018: C$2.24 : $109.65: 2.04%
YE’ 2019: C$1.57 : $144.63: 1.09%
02.12.20: C$1.53 : $142.00: 1.08%

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WILD's Earnings Report has come out - I added Q2 data here

My quick assessment: "Good, but not spectacular, could help the stock price."

Q2.'20 results will be discussed in a podcast today.

If there are positive comments on future from Mgmt., that may help more than the Q2 Result, a small Loss.

Right now, I foresee a continuation of the improving trend, but not yet a truly impressive jump in price.

My guess is... this might help the stock price somewhat. (in edit: the detail led to different conclusion)

WILD—: Q1.’19 : Q2.’19 : . . ./ Q1.’20: Q2.’20:
Revs. - : 104.0 :   117.0 : . . ./  112.3 : 122.1 : + 4%
WB.spk : $16.2 :  00.00 : . . ./ $22.1 : $00.0 :+??
CF ops : (10.0) :  $ 11.6 : . . ./ $18.7 : $46.6 :
FreeCsh ($5.5) :  $12.9 : . . ./  $07.6 : $13.3 :
Ebitda- :
Eb.,adj. : $17.3 : $22.0 : . . ./  $19.6 : $25.6 :
NetLoss: ($2.4): (17.1) : . . ./ (16.0)* ($2.3):
Lever.-- :   X.Xx :  X.Xx  :  . . ./ 5.66x :  5.09x :
*Loss- Q1’20, after reorg cost
======

NEWS OUT !

Date ET Symbol Price Type Headline
2020-02-13 07:19 C:WILD 1.53 SEDAR Interim Financial Statements SEDAR Interim Financial Statements
2020-02-13 07:19 C:WILD 1.53 SEDAR MD & A SEDAR MD & A
2020-02-13 07:00 C:WILD 1.53 News Release WildBrain Reports Results For Q2 2020

===

Replay will be available after the call on +1 (855) 859-2056 toll free, under passcode 5462579, until 11:59 p.m. ET, February 20, 2020.

The audio and transcript will also be archived on the Company’s website approximately two days after the event.

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Whoops! - YouTube's tweak will hit the WiidBrain Spark Business

Part of this sounds encouraging, but retooling around Youtube's new policy may reduce income significantly below what it might have been

(from Management's discussion):

"Our improving financial position allows us to execute on our plans, focusing on creative development, our AVOD business and IP and brands, all of which will contribute to long-term growth."

In January 2020, YouTube introduced new rules and policies regarding targeted advertising on kids' content.  Absent WildBrain's own initiatives in direct advertising sales and any mitigating actions by YouTube, we expect there would be a negative impact on revenue at WildBrain Spark in the back half of Fiscal 2020.  Initially, in the first few weeks following the change, WildBrain Spark experienced a revenue decline of approximately 40%, compared with the same period last year.

Ellenbogen added, "We're taking actions to address the changes made by YouTube and continue to see significant value in our large and growing user base. We believe these changes will result in a more positive and curated environment for kids, and ultimately, improved monetization that will reward quality content.  We're ideally positioned to benefit from this move over the long term."

> source: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item?bid=Z-C%3aWILD-2865267&amp;symbol=WILD&amp;region=C

VIEWS were rising fast, but they are getting harder to monetize:

Grow Brands and Build Awareness on WildBrain Spark

• WildBrain Spark's online audience up by 36% to over 9.9 billion views in the quarter vs a year ago. 

This amounted to more than 52.0 billion minutes of videos watched, up 36% from Q2 2019.

 

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WILL LOOK For Another stock, beyond WILD. (The shares may be "dead money" for a while.)

I liked the set-up (Charts, & Insider buying) for Wildbrain when I started this thread.

But the change in the Youtube algorhithm, are likely to hit Wildbrain-Spark revenues & earnings pretty hard for 1-2 Qtrs maybe.

WILD.TO stock is likely to be dead money for a while.

Right now, I own WILD 5.875% Convertible debentures (see chart) with a 7.14% running yield. (5.875%/82)

1Ki5fqX.png

Plus, a modest number of shares. (The debentures benefited from the Debt repayment thru the $50M stock placement.)

My plan was, to jump into the Stock much bigger, if the earnings were good and the stock started to accelerate.

On Friday, WILD slid below support at $1.44-45, down to $1.42*. so I do not see that happening for several months (at least.)

I will look for other stocks to follow here.

=====

*Fortunately, there should also be some strong support at $1.40

 

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A good chart provides NO GUARANTEE of a profit.

(comments from a viber chat)

+ Financial Charts are mere graphical representation of human participation. The more crowd the more crowd behavior is reflected. Chart shows cyclic pattern. As mentioned all natural systems have cycles and limits.

+ Agreed.  And a "good" chart set-up does not guarantee a profit/  If fundamental news is not positive, then a good set-up may be wasted, until the fundamentals improve.

=====

NOTE: I am tempted to choose a Philippines mining stock as a new stock TIP here.

But there are too many fundamental things in the PH, that might "disrupt" a good stock chart.

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This PSEI chart shows why I am still Bearish on PH stocks

PSEI ... 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last:

390LnGQ.gif

7000-7200 is  a Key support level, which may soon be broken

I am watching how the PSEI moves in relation to the downwards channel and the moving averages...

1. If PSEI stays within the lower half of the downwards channel. As the test at 7000-7200 comes. and there is no strong bounce to the upper half of the channel.  The there is an excellent chance the key support will be broken for a longer journey to the downside, below 7000

2. Confirmation that an important (& maybe long lasting drop is underway) would be when the 76d MA (blue line) breaks the 987d MA (orange line), and futher confirmed when the 252d (red line) breaks the long term 987d MA

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HOW I USE MOVING AVERAGES - from a viber chat

(Can anyone tell me what those periods in the PSEI chart above represent?  I will tell you, if interested.)

yes pls explain the specific MA numbers

Some of them are Fibonacci numbers, you know: 3, 5, 8, 13, (21d), 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, (987d)...

I find they all have value. But 21d = 1 month and 987 = 3.9/4yrs are of key importance in short term and long term trends

76d > there are various ways of deriving this number mathematically, but I found over decades it JUST WORKS well, it is 3.6 months, ie between 3 & 4 months

252d = ONE YEAR >  provides key support or resistance to see if a long term trend is changing / PSEI- 4yr. chart :

390LnGQ.gif

how about for Bulls... Do they work in bull markets too?  Can you use them to trade counter-trend bounces?

Yes. I will sometimes buy a market which looks bearish, when it is oversold,  But you must be very nimble in your entries and exits to make money (when trading a counter-trend bounce

These MAs also work in a Bull market, 

Here's Gran Columbia, GCM.t 4-yrs-chart / Last: C$6.17 + 0.35, +6.01%

The chart shows 21d, 76d, & 252d MA (adding the 987d MA stretches the chart too much.)

QuCjaVG.gif

Since it broke above C$1.70 in Sep. 2017, GCM has been in a strong uptrend. 

Confirmed bu how the blue (76) MA was mostly in an uptrend, and when it dipped, the blue stayed above the red (252) MA

There are DECADES of testing I have used to find, and use these tools well.  Mostly my own work. and not yet captured in a book or Technical anaylsis writings

MEG / Megaworld ... 4-yr / Last: Php3.96

vc4yGTb.gif

MEG we spoke about here, and One member asked about buying near P4.  I told him he would probably do okay, but that he should be nimble and look to sell around 4.50.  The rally did not last long. haha.  so would have required ultra-nibbleness, since it peaked out between 4.40 and 4.50, reversing the same day.

How do you read this sir? I have Meg too

simple comment: look at that 76d Ma (blue) it is still in a clear & strong downtrend.  Not good!

So Blue MA must cross the longterm Red MA?

I will look at 76d vs 252d as my Gold or Death Cross equivalent.  Other periods too

MA's must be adjusted ... 252days = 52weeks.  Something too simple is less useful. Like just 200 periods on both Daily & Weekly charts.

People who use only 50 x 200 period MA's "dont get it" imho. The MA's are different for Daily and Weekly charts

DOUBLE DEATH CROSS coming on PSEI?

In the case of PSEI, blue is now crossing orange (987) and red will cross orange within several weeks probably. 

Might that case, with two lines crossing a longer term MA be called Double Death?? haha

Lines moving Up or DOWN together is MORE powerful

Notice on the MEG chart. that yellow (21) crossing blue (76) cna give you a quicker signal. ie sooner

After a cross, if both lines are point up, or both are pointed down together you can get some very powerful moves UP or DOWN

 

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