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drbubb

Corona - Super Virus: 50 Million plus Quarantined

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I imagine that was his stick to beat the Government with and after he got what he wanted he changed his tune.

Hard to know what is going on behind the scenes but that's what it smells like

======

STATISTICS (added in Edit) > HOPE INDEX: Growth in Recoveries vs. New Cases

Mar Hp: #Cases: #Chg: #CHINA: C.Pct: Critical: -%-: Death: Recovs: %chg: Active: Non-Ch: #chg.
F: Hope84,624: +1,245: 79,251 : 93.7%: 7,816 : 9.2%: 2,923: 39,903: ====%: 42,271:   5374 :  +824
01: - 27 :  86.991: +2,366: 79.826 : 91.8%: 7,569 : 8.7%: 2,978: 42,326: +6.1%: 41,310:  7165 : +1791: +33%
02: - 19 :  89,070: +2,079: 80,026 : 89.8%: 7,356 : 8.3%: 3,046: 45,136: +6.6%: 40,888:   9044 : +1879: +26%
03: -   6 :  90,932: +1,862: 80,151 : 88.1%: 7,098 : 7.8%: 3,119: 48,165: +6.7%: 39,223: 10,298: +1254: +14%
04: - 17 :  93,021: +2,089: 80,270 : 86.3%: 6,771 : 7.3%: 3,202: 50,944: +5.8%: 38,875: 12,751: +2453: +24%
05: - 10 :  95,316: +2,295: 80,430 : 84.4%: 6,420 : 6.7%: 3,303: 53,524: +5.1%: 38,507: 14,886: +2137: +17%
06: - 16 :  98,421: +3,105: 80,552 : 81.8%: 6,272 : 6.4%: 3,385: 55,630: +3.9%: 39,400: 17,869: +2,983: +20%
07: - 17: 102,224: +3,803: 80,651: 78.9%: 6,153 : 6.0%: 3,495: 57,611: +3.6%: 40,946: 21,573: +3,704: +21%
08: - 13: 106,200: +3,976: 80,696: 76.0%: 6,035 : 5.7%: 3,600: 60,190: +4.5%: 42,311: 25,504: +3.931: +18%
09: - 14: 109,936: +3,737: 80,703: 73.4%: 6,129 : 5.6%: 3,806: 60,979: +1.3%: 43,886: 29,233: +3,729: +15%
10: - 11: 114,549: +4,613: 80,757: 70.5%: 5,771 : 5.0%: 4,028: 64,268: +5.4%: 46,300: 33,792: +4,559: +16%
11: - 12: 118,905: +4,356: 80,761: 67.9%: 6,045 : 5.1%: 4,269: 65,110: +1.3%: 49,526: 38,144: +4,352: +13%
12: - 14: 126,145: +7,240: 80,796: 64.1%: 5,709 : 4.5%: 4,627: 68,240: +4.8%: 53,344: 45,349: +7,205: +19%
13: - 16: 134,557: +8,412: 80,832: 60.1%: 5,958 : 4.4%: 4,981: 70,383: +3.1%: 59,212: 53,763: +8,414: +19%
14: - 16: 145,631: +9,074: 80,832: 55.5%: 6,042 : 4.1%: 5,423: 72,528: +3.0%: 67,447: 64,659: +10.9k: +19%
15: - 11: 156,444 +10,813 80.9kEst 52%: 5,888 : 3.7%: 5,832: 75,799: +4.5%: 68,925: 75,620: +10.0k: +15%
16: - 16: 167,798 +11,354 80.9kEst 48%: 5,639 : 3.4%: 6,451: 75,926: +0.2%: 85,603: 88,717: +13.1k: +17%
17: - 12: 182,403 +14,605 80.9Est 44%: 6,163 : 3.4%:   7,144: 78,342: +3.2%: 96,917: 101.7k: +12.9k: +15%
18: - 12: 198,181 +15,778 80.9Est 41%: 7,020 : 3.5%:   7,965: 81,734: +4.3%: 101.5k: 117.3k: +15.6k: +16%
19: - 14: 218,953 +20,772 81k.Est 37%: 7,158 : 3.3%:   8,952: 84,795: +3.7%: 125.2K: 138.1k: +20.8k: +18%
20: - 15: 245,073 +26.1k 81k.Est  33%: 7,378 : 3.0%: 10,041: 88,151: +4.0%: 146.9k: 165.5k: +26.1k: +19%
21: - 15: 274,643 +29.5k 81K.Est 29%: 7,975 : 2.9%: 11.366: 90,942: +3.2% : 172.3k: 194.6k: +29.1k: +18%
22: - 11: 304,999 +30.3k 81k.Est 27%:  9,382 : 3.1%: 13,003: 94,793: +4.2% : 187.8k: 224.0k +29.4k: +15%
23: - 11: 335,511 +30.5k 81k.Est 24%: 10.64k: 3.2%: 14,611: 97,636: +3.0% : 223.4k: 274.5k +30.5k: +14%
24: - 11: 375,536 +40.0k 81k.Est 22%: 12.21k: 3.2%: 16,369: 101584 +4.0%: 257.6k: 314.4k +39.9k: +15%
25: -  7 : 418,099 +42.6k 81k.Est 19%: 12.98k: 3.1%: 18,608: 108323 +6.6%: 291.2k: 357.0k +42.6k: +14%
26: -  9 : 468,012 +50.0k 81k.Est 17%: 14.91k: 3.2%: 21,180: 113,809 +5.1%: 318.1k: 407.0k +50.0k: +14%
27: -  7 : 529,148 +61.1k 81k. Est 15%: 19.5k: 3.7%: 23,976: 123,380 +8.4%: 382.3k: 461.8k +61.1k: +15%
28: -  7 : 592,919 +63.2k 81k. Est 14%: 22.1k: 3.7%: 27,187: 132,520 +7.4%: 433.2k: 520.0k +63.2k: +14%
29:  - 6 : 660,173 +63.8k 81k. Est 12%: 25.5k: 3.8%: 30,642: 141,464 +6.7%: 433.2k: 578.8k +63.8k: +12%
30:  - 4 : 721,412 +61.3k 81k. Est 11%: 26.8k: 3.7%: 33,956: 151,004 +6.7%: 536.5k: 640.0k +61.2k: +11%
31:  - 1 : 784,381 +63.0k 81k. Est 10%: 29.6k: 3.8%: 37,780: 165,035 +9.3%: 581.6k: 703.0k +63.0k: +10%
01: - 3 : 854,039 +69.6k 81k. Esr  9%: 32.3k: 3.8%: 42,014: 176,906 +7.2%: 635,1k: 772.5k +69.5k: +10%
02: +0 : 934,033 +80.0k 82k. Est  9%: 35.5k: 3.8%: 46,922: 193,891 +9.6%: 657.7k: 852.4k +79.9k: +10%
03: +0 : 1,011.k  +75.9k 82k. Est  0%: 37.7k: 0.0%: 52,887: 212,015 +9.3%: 694.0k: 929.5k +75.9k: +8.9%
===

(NOTE: some numbers don't add, they were taken from different sources)
>  CORONAVIRUS STATS / > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

> More Detail > https://ncov2019.live/

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Germany and the Netherlands seem to fight off the virus better than most — here’s why MarketWatch

The Netherlands and Germany both showed glimmers of hope in the battle to combat the coronavirus on Wednesday, while the number of cases in New York rose rapidly.

Data from Germany show just 0.4% of people who tested positive for the virus have died from it, much less than the 9.5% in Italy and 4.3% in France. In the Netherlands growth in transmissions of the virus have slowed significantly.

Giving evidence in front of the Dutch Parliament, Jaap van Dissel, head of the Netherlands National Institute of Health, said: “The exponential growth of the outbreak has in all probability been brought to a halt,” with the infection only being passed on at a rate of one infected person to one other person.

If proven, this would be a significant achievement. In some countries, the average spread from one infected person has been to as many as five or more people. In the U.S., the state of New York had 5,146 new cases confirmed on Wednesday, and more than 30,000 have tested positive.

Germany, as of late Thursday, has had 43,646 cases of COVID-19 diagnosed, and 262 people have died, while 5,673 have recovered, according to data compiled by the Whiting School of Engineering’s Centers for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. There have been 7,459 confirmed Dutch cases and 435 deaths with six recoveries recorded.

Germany’s population is estimated at 84 million, and Holland’s at 17.1 million.

The low death rate in Germany has confounded experts, and it could be due to several causes. The possible explanation is that doctors aggressively screened citizens who were either fit or early on in the sickness at the time they took the test, at a rate not seen in other countries, which only had the resources to test the very sick. This has skewed the comparison with other countries, because those who were fit when tested and had caught the virus were more likely to suffer from a mild case and survive.

Germany also was more effective than most countries at tracking and tracing the contacts of infected patients before the spread took hold, effectively containing it better than other countries.

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Shocking video shows women deliberately coughing in people’s faces as they walk down the street amid coronavirus pandemic

A shocking video has emerged showing a group of women deliberately coughing in a person's face as they walk down a street during Britain's coronavirus lockdown.

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DECEPTION NARRATIVE (below) does not Ring True with me

America’s Corona Tsar, Andrew Fauci, Concedes Covid-19 May Be Just a Bad Flu With a Fatality Rate of 0.1%

This whole thing is an overblown farce. This is the NWO making their play to destroy the human race! Wake up! Quit panicking and being scaredy cats!

The report, entitled “Covid-19 — Navigating the Uncharted”, was co-authored by Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., H. Clifford Lane, M.D., and Robert R. Redfield, M.D.

Here’s a direct quote from that report:

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“

/ 2 /

The US Coronavirus Curve Appears To Be Getting Steeper, Not Flatter

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VERY BAD day, with big growth everywhere, including terrible growth in Philippines

New CASES, growth per day
== Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
17: - 12%: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: - 12%: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: - 14%: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: - 15%: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: - 11%: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: - 11%: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 +  77: +33%/ (13, 19)
23: - 12%: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 +  73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +11.1k +25%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
26: -  9% : +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +13.4k +24%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)
27: -  7% : +9,571: +8.4%/ +61.1k: +61.1k +15%/ +17.2k +25%/ 707 +  71: +11%/ (28, 45)/ 11.7k +2129 +22% (135, 578)
28: -  7% : +9,140: +7.4%/ +63.2k: +63.2k +14%/ +18.7k +22%/ 803 +  96: +14%/ (31, 54)/ 14.5k +2885 +25% (135, 759)
29: -  6% : +8,942: +6.7%/ +63.8k: +63.8k +12%/ +19.5k +19%/ 1075 +272 +34%/ (00, 68)/ 17.1k +2.5k  +17% (135. 1019)
====

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Getting closer to +HOPE Globally

New CASES, growth per day
== Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
19: - 14%: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: - 15%: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: - 11%: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: - 11%: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 +  77: +33%/ (13, 19)
23: - 12%: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 +  73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +11.1k +25%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
26: -  9% : +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +13.4k +24%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)
27: -  7% : +9,571: +8.4%/ +61.1k: +61.1k +15%/ +17.2k +25%/ 707 +  71: +11%/ (28, 45)/ 11.7k +2129 +22% (135, 578)
28: - 7% : +9,140: +7.4%/ +63.2k: +63.2k +14%/ +18.7k +22%/ 803 +  96: +14%/ (31, 54)/ 14.5k +2885 +25% (135, 759)
29: - 6% : +8,942: +6.7%/ +63.8k: +63.8k +12%/ +19.5k +19%/ 1075 +272 +34%/ (38, 68)/ 17.1k +2.5k +17% (135. 1019)
30: - 4% : +9,540: +6.7%/ +61.3k: +61.2k +11%/ +18.3k +15%/ 1418 +343 +32%/ (42, 71)/ 19.5k +2.4k +14% (135, 1228)
====

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A health worker faces the Beast of Covid

"I'm a Nurse - and TERRIFIED of #Coronavirus!" Freedomain Call In

"I am contacting you because I am a brand new nurse and the coronavirus situation is extremely stressful. I am considering quitting my new job because the risk I am at and I was hoping you could help me make that decision because it is weighing on me so heavily. "Here are my circumstances: I was hired as a psychiatric nurse and started working on [x] at a hospital. I am a new graduate with no experience in the field. The hospital I work at is now at full capacity and there are no more respirators left. My unit is a psych unit so we do not have the normal things a medical floor has. "Although other hospitals have stopped admitting patients into psych units because of the coronavirus, our hospital continues to admit new patients to the unit. This morning we admitted our first patient with a pending Covid test and she is symptomatic. Although no one from administration is talking to us at all about any of this, my assumption is we will begin to care for these covid patients. "The hospital is out of equipment. Our floor has not had hand sanitizer for weeks and we are now using shampoo as soap at the only 2 hands sinks we have. Nurses on other units taking care of the covid patients have told me they are reusing n95 masks for days and do not have any gowns....

 

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Doctor In Italy – We No Longer Provide Respirators For Those Over 6

https://thejeffreylord.com/doctor-in-italy-we-no-longer-provide-respirators-for-those-over-60/

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CROSSOVER into +HOPE in April? 

Today was just -1

== Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
19: - 14%: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: - 15%: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: - 11%: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: - 11%: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 +  77: +33%/ (13, 19)
23: - 12%: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 +  73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +11.1k +25%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
26: -  9% : +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +13.4k +24%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)
27: -  7% : +9,571: +8.4%/ +61.1k: +61.1k +15%/ +17.2k +25%/ 707 +  71: +11%/ (28, 45)/ 11.7k +2129 +22% (135, 578)
28: - 7% : +9,140: +7.4%/ +63.2k: +63.2k +14%/ +18.7k +22%/ 803 +  96: +14%/ (31, 54)/ 14.5k +2885 +25% (135, 759)
29: - 6% : +8,942: +6.7%/ +63.8k: +63.8k +12%/ +19.5k +19%/ 1075 +272 +34%/ (38, 68)/ 17.1k +2.5k +17% (135. 1019)
30: - 4% : +9,540: +6.7%/ +61.3k: +61.2k +11%/ +18.3k +15%/ 1418 +343 +32%/ (42, 71)/ 19.5k +2.4k +14% (135, 1228)
31: - 1% : +14.0k : +9.3%/ +63.0k: +63.0k +10%/ +20.0k +14%/ 1646 +128 + 9%/ (42, 78)/ 22.1k +2.6k +13% (135, 1408)
====

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I agree.

Can China really have stalled at 81K for so long?

That is very very hard to believe.  If true, they should let the world in on their secrets

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HOPE Index still in minus territory, 

Where is the jump in Recoveries?  Change in Recoveries declined

The Philippines had a VERY BAD DAY, with New cases jumping +33%

New CASES, growth per day
== Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +11.1k +25%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
26: -  9% : +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +13.4k +24%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)
27: -  7% : +9,571: +8.4%/ +61.1k: +61.1k +15%/ +17.2k +25%/ 707 +  71: +11%/ (28, 45)/ 11.7k +2129 +22% (135, 578)
28: - 7% : +9,140: +7.4%/ +63.2k: +63.2k +14%/ +18.7k +22%/ 803 +  96: +14%/ (31, 54)/ 14.5k +2885 +25% (135, 759)
29: - 6% : +8,942: +6.7%/ +63.8k: +63.8k +12%/ +19.5k +19%/ 1075 +272 +34%/ (38, 68)/ 17.1k +2.5k +17% (135. 1019)
30: - 4% : +9,540: +6.7%/ +61.3k: +61.2k +11%/ +18.3k +15%/ 1418 +343 +32%/ (42, 71)/ 19.5k +2.4k +14% (135, 1228)
31: - 1% : +14.0k : +9.3%/ +63.0k: +63.0k +10%/ +20.0k +14%/ 1646 +128 + 9%/ (42, 78)/ 22.1k +2.6k +13% (135, 1408)
01: - 3% : +11.9k : +7.2%/ +69.6k: +69.5k +10%/ +21.5k +13%/ 2084 +538 +33%/ (49, 88)/ 25.2k +3.0k +14% (135, 1789)
====

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VIEW FROM PHILIPPINES, where New Cases jumped +33%

3/31 DOH report
Positive 2084; Deaths 88; Recovery 49
Finer details: 1068 negatives, 699 in the backlog

What happened between reports?
There were 593 new tests - 538 positive and 55 negative

Backlog increased by 7, on 600 new cases added

Daily View

Phew! 500+! Expect more of those days.
The dip in testing yesterday might be a fluke as they learn the ropes of the process (ie. transfers, prep, etc). Today, they were able to clear 86% of the outstanding backlog. If they keep at this rate, expect 400 or higher positive cases per day going forward.

The high positive rate is still very alarming as it points to testing being limited to people with very significant symptoms. The current ratio of positive to negative is 2:1 overall, and 10:1 for the most recent day. We want to see this quickly get to 3:97 (ie. 3% or the South Korean rate). If we continue at the current trend, it will be very hard for anyone to make a good decision on what to do with the lockdown by mid-April. It will not give them any knowledge about what is really happening on the ground.

News of more testing sites has also come out and news that PGH has been converted to a Covid Facility with 130 beds. Hopefully, we begin to see a consolidation of cases and also a consolidation of experts in the field there. This is also good news as this alleviates the pressure on other hospitals to hopefully serve normal (non-Covid) cases.

What do we want to ideally see?

I'll make a list here of the trends we'd like to see from before and check off what we've already seen.
- increasing test throughput. The most recent days are 221, 343, 401. At 593 today, this is a welcome improvement.
- Positive / negative ratio. Right now overall is 2:1, yesterday was 6:5. Today is still very high at 10:1. We want 3:97- Industries/organizations stepping in
- ie. telco for contact tracing; mega-sites offering space for make-shift hospitals. We've seen PGH being converted to a 130-bed facility. We will need larger ones so that other hospitals can continue to care for normal cases.

What you should expect

Worldwide: I got too excited with Apr 1 / Apr 2 prediction for 1 Million. Yesterday's rate showed a slight slowdown and I'm not sure if it's just the testing rate going down (remember test kit production is linear, but the virus infection rate is exponential), or we're seeing some flattening in the curve. The previous 4 days' addition has been around 60K per day (linear) rather than the previous 12.5% day over day group. In any case, expect 1 Million to still happen on or before April 5.

Philippines: We may get days of +1000 soon as they get more test labs activated. For now, it will still stay below 1000. Look at the daily backlog for more insight on when +1000 days will happen.

Also, expect a hard decision to be made by the Philippine government in the next 2 weeks. This is with regards to the lockdown. As we have very little visibility on the actual infected numbers and trend, they will have to make a decision on the lockdown with very little information - eg. no information if we're really tapering, no information on how many clusters are there and where the hot ones are. Pray that they will able to make a health vs economy decision that is correct.

There is only really 3 potential way out of the current situation that I can see (if you have others, let me know). (1) Herd immunity - the UK tried it and backed off, (2) starve the virus of carriers by locking down and giving the health care system a chance, or (3) intermittent flare-up and lockdown that cycles for a long while. Let's hope that #2 is successful enough that we don't get to #3, as it will prolong the cycle we are currently in and have a harsher economic impact. However, brace for #3 as it might be the most likely outcome.
Mike Sy's Daily View - https://www.facebook.com/mike.sy

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Britain's youngest coronavirus death: Boy, 13, 'with no underlying conditions' dies alone in isolation in London hospital after testing positive, leaving his family 'beyond devastated' - after UK death toll rises record 381 to 1,789

Ismail Mohamed Abdulwahab, 13, from Brixton, London, died alone on Monday
He is believed to be the youngest victim of the coronavirus outbreak in the UK
His heartbroken family revealed how he died alone at King's College Hospital
Comes as 381 coronavirus deaths and 3,009 cases declared in the UK today
Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

 

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The No.1 Priority Right Now Is to Test a Representative Sample of the Population — Why Isn’t It Being Done?

Get a polling company to create a 3000-strong representative sample of your population. Then take 9,000 of your SARS-CoV-2 tests and go triple-test every one of them.

Then finally we’ll have the answer to the question of how much covid-19 virus is already out there and therefore what the actual hospitalization and mortality rates are, and we can finally decide what measures make, or do not make, sense based on some actual data.

(And as a bonus we’ll get some insight into how accurate the tests themselves are.)

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Is This What's Behind Italy's Outrageous 10% Mortality Rate From COVID-19?

Italy's 10% mortality rate has been one of the most disturbing mysteries of the global pandemic. Italy's mortality rate is roughly 20x Germany's (a relatively benign 0.4%), and many multiples of China's (roughly 2.5%) rate.

As scientists puzzle over the reason, researchers have proposed a theory that's being vetted by peers: Italy's mild flu season left a larger victim pool for COVID-19. This would suggest that the US, which has struggled with more lethal flu seasons, won't have as large a pool of potential high-risk victims, especially as testing suggests the virus is more widespread than many had expected.
 

/ 2 /

DEATH RATE: NUMBERS DON'T MAKE SENSE.
I was a math major at Harvard, so I think I am qualified to question Doc Wacasey.
But there seems to be a flaw in his logic.  Everyone who gets Covid needs to pass thru
Treatment to a final result: Fatality, or Recovery.  Those who have not yet, are still in care.
Total Cases now are: 854k.  We should not be compare with deaths, since the death rate
is the end of the chain, and so many of out cases are new cases and we do not yet know
For the new cases how many will recover & how many with be fatalies.
If we look at Deaths as a shared of resolved cases we get this:
😧 42,014 / D+R: 42,014 + 176,906: 218,920 = 19%

That is a much higher than the 3% or 1% Death rate that people are talking about
Even if we accept that 80% of the cases are unreported, & if we assume that ALL
of the unreported cases will go to recovery, then the Death rate goes /5= 3.8%.
That is still high, very high.
Maybe the Doctor should explain why the real death rate is going to drop or
The cases still in the Care Pipeline,  THAT would be interesting to hear, and at about
25% of the way in, I had not heard that.

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Covid HOPE Index at 0%, thanks to +9.6% daily rise in Recoveries

== Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +11.1k +25%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
26: -  9% : +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +13.4k +24%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)
27: -  7% : +9,571: +8.4%/ +61.1k: +61.1k +15%/ +17.2k +25%/ 707 +  71: +11%/ (28, 45)/ 11.7k +2129 +22% (135, 578)
28: - 7% : +9,140: +7.4%/ +63.2k: +63.2k +14%/ +18.7k +22%/ 803 +  96: +14%/ (31, 54)/ 14.5k +2885 +25% (135, 759)
29: - 6% : +8,942: +6.7%/ +63.8k: +63.8k +12%/ +19.5k +19%/ 1075 +272 +34%/ (38, 68)/ 17.1k +2.5k +17% (135. 1019)
30: - 4% : +9,540: +6.7%/ +61.3k: +61.2k +11%/ +18.3k +15%/ 1418 +343 +32%/ (42, 71)/ 19.5k +2.4k +14% (135, 1228)
31: - 1% : +14.0k : +9.3%/ +63.0k: +63.0k +10%/ +20.0k +14%/ 1646 +128 + 9%/ (42, 78)/ 22.1k +2.6k +13% (135, 1408)
01: - 3% : +11.9k : +7.2%/ +69.6k: +69.5k +10%/ +21.5k +13%/ 2084 +538 +33%/ (49, 88)/ 25.2k +3.0k +14% (135, 1789)
02: +0% : +17.0k : +9.6%/ +80.0k: +79.9k +10%/ +25.7k +14%/ 2311 +227 +11%/ (50, 96)/ 29.5k +4.3k +17% (135, 2352)
===

AT +10% rise in Recoveries (+17.0K) and 10% rise in Cases (+80.0K) there is still a big 63K rise in Cases, net of Recoveries:

-5k more Deaths in a day, so 58K more people in Care. 

To get the number of people in Care stable, the Hope Index may need to be perhaps +8% on current numbers.

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1 in 3 incorrectly negative?
SPREADS 'JUST BY BREATHING'...
LA mayor says all residents should wear masks...
Looters wearing face masks too...
Residents in Texas city face $1,000 fine for uncovered mouth, nose...

A prestigious scientific panel told the White House Wednesday night that research shows coronavirus can be spread not just by sneezes or coughs, but also just by talking, or possibly even just breathing.

"While the current [coronavirus] specific research is limited, the results of available studies are consistent with aerosolization of virus from normal breathing," according to the letter, written by Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of a committee with the National Academy of Sciences.
    Fineberg told CNN that he will wear start wearing a mask when he goes to the grocery store.
     
    "I'm not going to wear a surgical mask, because clinicians need those," said Fineberg, former dean of the Harvard School of Public Health. "But I have a nice western-style bandana I might wear. Or I have a balaclava. I have some pretty nice options."
     
    Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN Tuesday that the idea of recommending broad use of masks in the US to prevent the spread of coronavirus is under "very active discussion" by the group.

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    DEM DELUSION

    Double privileged woman is whining... miles away from the harsher Reality

    / 2 /

    Why Are So Many More Men Dying?

    As coronavirus continues its spread across borders, oceans and continents, there is a perplexing piece of data that has so far evaded a proper explanation: It’s still early, but in almost every country that we have numbers for, more men than women are dying from the virus.

    Most attempts to explain this discrepancy have focused primarily on behavior, some of which are almost certainly valid. Higher rates of tobacco consumption, a reluctance to seek proper and timely medical care and even lower rates of hand-washing absolutely do play a role in who will be hit hardest.

    But what is being overlooked in these explanations is that the disproportionate toll coronavirus is taking on men isn’t an anomaly. Rather, it may be a timely and high-profile demonstration of what up until recently has been an underappreciated scientific fact: When it comes to survival, men are the weaker sex.

    This isn’t just the case during once-in-a-lifetime pandemics. This innate biological advantage is apparent at every age and stage of human life: Baby girls are consistently more likely to make it to their first birthday; 80 percent of all centenarians today are women; an incredible 95 percent of those who reach the formidable age of 110 years old are women. While on average genetic males have more muscle mass and greater height, overall size, and physical strength, when it comes to surviving the physical hardships encountered from birth to late-in-life, genetic females almost always outlast genetic males.

    We have long assumed that the only reason behind the earlier and disproportionate demise of men was behavioral. But in fact, the female survival advantage between the sexes still holds, regardless of education, economic factors, and alcohol, drug, or tobacco consumption.

    / 3 /

    Inside The Dark Money Dem Group Using An Umbrella Network To Flay Trump Over His Virus Response

    Two left-leaning large super PAC groups that kickstarted a digital ad campaign targeting President Donald Trump’s coronavirus response have ties to a wealthy dark money network.

    • Two super PACs — Pacronym and American Bridge — that are thrashing President Donald Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic are affiliated with Arabella Advisors, a consulting firm that is not required to identify its donors. 
    • Academics and other researchers said flaying the president over his virus response so early in the health crisis skirts ethical boundaries, and that he should be given more leeway on the matter.
    • One of Pacronym’s affiliated groups is creating a large network of so-called local news outlets that are designed to promote progressive viewpoints inside battleground states. 

    Arabella’s network raked in $582 million in 2017 while taking advantage of tax laws allowing it to conceal the identity of most of its donors, according to a 2019 report from the Capital Research Center, a group that investigates nonprofits and other organizations’ spending habits. Other groups have raised alarms about the network as well.

    / 4 /

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    HOPE INDEX stuck at ZERO.

    New cases still too high. Especially in US, UK & PHL, all +12-14%

    New CASES, growth per day
    == Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
    24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
    25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +11.1k +25%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
    26: -  9% : +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +13.4k +24%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)
    27: -  7% : +9,571: +8.4%/ +61.1k: +61.1k +15%/ +17.2k +25%/ 707 +  71: +11%/ (28, 45)/ 11.7k +2129 +22% (135, 578)
    28: - 7% : +9,140: +7.4%/ +63.2k: +63.2k +14%/ +18.7k +22%/ 803 +  96: +14%/ (31, 54)/ 14.5k +2885 +25% (135, 759)
    29: - 6% : +8,942: +6.7%/ +63.8k: +63.8k +12%/ +19.5k +19%/ 1075 +272 +34%/ (38, 68)/ 17.1k +2.5k +17% (135. 1019)
    30: - 4% : +9,540: +6.7%/ +61.3k: +61.2k +11%/ +18.3k +15%/ 1418 +343 +32%/ (42, 71)/ 19.5k +2.4k +14% (135, 1228)
    31: - 1% : +14.0k : +9.3%/ +63.0k: +63.0k +10%/ +20.0k +14%/ 1646 +128 + 9%/ (42, 78)/ 22.1k +2.6k +13% (135, 1408)
    01: - 3% : +11.9k : +7.2%/ +69.6k: +69.5k +10%/ +21.5k +13%/ 2084 +538 +33%/ (49, 88)/ 25.2k +3.0k +14% (135, 1789)
    02: +0% : +17.0k : +9.6%/ +80.0k: +79.9k +10%/ +25.7k +14%/ 2311 +227 +11%/ (50, 96)/ 29.5k +4.3k +17% (135, 2352)
    03: +0% : +18.1k : +9.3%/ +75.9k: +75.9k +. 9%/ +26.9k +12%/ 2633 +322 +14% (51, 107)/ 33.7k +4.2k +14% (135, 2921)
    ====

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    Pass this on. Makes sense why youngsters who are fit and well can also succumb to covid-19 yet some older patients may get away with a mild flu like illness

    This was sent by a charge nurse who  worked at NHS 24. It’s written by his doctor colleague currently working with seriously ill coronavirus patients - and in despair as to why anyone is still socialising.

    Viral load is the key to how coronavirus affects each person. This explanation is clear and helpful as to why as little social contact as possible is now crucial, gives a clue how to  manage it .... the Govt should have explained this at the outset.

    Why do we need to shut places where people group?

    Remember this: VIRAL LOAD

    There will be a lot about this. Why is it important?

    With this virus, the amount of virus in your blood at first infection directly relates to the severity of the illness you will suffer. This isn’t unusual - HIV management is all about reducing viral load to keep people alive longer. BUT it’s very important in COVID-19.

    So if you are in, say, a pub or religious building or entertainment venue with 200 people and a large number don’t have symptoms but are shedding, you are breathing in lots of droplets per minute and absorbing a high load of the virus. In a crowded space. They become ill over the next 48 hours. You then three days later wonder why you can’t breathe and end up in hospital. You’d decided because you were young and healthy it wasn’t going to be a problem. Wrong.

    Fortunately but unfortunately because the elderly are isolating quite well, the initial UK data suggests that all age groups above 20 are almost equally represented in ICUs in England. Most of the cases are in London but the wave is moving outwards.

    This means that being under 60 and fit and well doesn’t seem to be as protective as we thought. Why? Viral load.

    This may be skewed simply by the fact that too many Londoners didn’t do as asked and congregated in large groups in confined spaces and got a large initial viral load. They then went home and infected their wider families. Which is why, as London is overwhelmed, we need to shut everything down to save the rest of the UK. We are a week at most behind London.

    Our sympathies go out to the families affected in London and the critical care teams battling right now to save as many as they can.

    If I sit with one person and catch this virus, I get a small viral load. My immune system will start to fight it and by the time the virus starts replicating, I’m ready to kill it.

    No medicines will help this process meaningfully hence there is no “cure” for this virus. All we can do is support you with a ventilator and hope your immune system can catch up fast enough.

    If I sit in the same room with six people, all shedding I get six times the initial dose. The rise in viral load is faster than my immune system can cope with and it is overrun. I then become critically ill and need me (or someone of my specialty) to fix it instead of just being at home and being ok in the end.

    THIS BIT IS IMPORTANT:

    If you are a large family group, remember that by being ill and in the same room, you will make each other ill or “more ill”. If you get sick, isolate just yourself to one room and stay there. Don’t all sit in one room coughing. You will increase the viral load for all of you, reducing your survival rate.

    A family of six people may produce double the droplets of a family of three in the same space. Maths is important.

    If one of you is symptomatic, assume you are all shedding and make sure you keep some space.

    Parents are getting it from their kids because no one is going to stop comforting their child (nor should they) so the parent gets a big hit as well as the child. I don’t think that can be helped.

    REMEMBER: THINK ABOUT VIRAL LOAD

    It could save your life or your child’s.

    Coventry and Warwickshire - it’s up to you now. We are preparing for the worst but we are hoping for the best from you. Please help us to help you. Stay home and take this seriously now before we need the army on the streets to remind you. Yes I’m serious.

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