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Corona - Super Virus: 50 Million plus Quarantined

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(in edit):  Check out the "Hope Index": + growth in Recoveries - growth in Non-China cases

Sad News... for those hoping for an early escape through recoveries

Macau has new cases.  Now three infected, after they had thought all their cases were recovered.

Now 13 cases = 10 recovered, 3 active

Non-CHINA CASE are still Rising Fast!  (at like +15%/d), Recoveries: +3-4% daily

Mar Hp: #Cases: #Chg: #CHINA: C.Pct: Critical: -%-: Death: Recovs: %chg: Active: Non-Ch: #chg.
F: Hope84,624: +1,245: 79,251 : 93.7%: 7,816 : 9.2%: 2,923: 39,903: ====%: 42,271:   5374 :  +824
01: - 27 :  86.991: +2,366: 79.826 : 91.8%: 7,569 : 8.7%: 2,978: 42,326: +6.1%: 41,310:  7165 : +1791: +33%
02: - 19 :  89,070: +2,079: 80,026 : 89.8%: 7,356 : 8.3%: 3,046: 45,136: +6.6%: 40,888:   9044 : +1879: +26%
03: -   6 :  90,932: +1,862: 80,151 : 88.1%: 7,098 : 7.8%: 3,119: 48,165: +6.7%: 39,223: 10,298: +1254: +14%
04: - 17 :  93,021: +2,089: 80,270 : 86.3%: 6,771 : 7.3%: 3,202: 50,944: +5.8%: 38,875: 12,751: +2453: +24%
05: - 10 :  95,316: +2,295: 80,430 : 84.4%: 6,420 : 6.7%: 3,303: 53,524: +5.1%: 38,507: 14,886: +2137: +17%
06: - 16 :  98,421: +3,105: 80,552 : 81.8%: 6,272 : 6.4%: 3,385: 55,630: +3.9%: 39,400: 17,869: +2,983: +20%
07: - 17: 102,224: +3,803: 80,651: 78.9%: 6,153 : 6.0%: 3,495: 57,611: +3.6%: 40,946: 21,573: +3,704: +21%
08: - 13: 106,200: +3,976: 80,696: 76.0%: 6,035 : 5.7%: 3,600: 60,190: +4.5%: 42,311: 25,504: +3.931: +18%
09: - 14: 109,936: +3,737: 80,703: 73.4%: 6,129 : 5.6%: 3,806: 60,979: +1.3%: 43,886: 29,233: +3,729: +15%
10: - 11: 114,549: +4,613: 80,757: 70.5%: 5,771 : 5.0%: 4,028: 64,268: +5.4%: 46,300: 33,792: +4,559: +16%
11: - 12: 118,905: +4,356: 80,761: 67.9%: 6,045 : 5.1%: 4,269: 65,110: +1.3%: 49,526: 38,144: +4,352: +13%
12: - 14: 126,145: +7,240: 80,796: 64.1%: 5,709 : 4.5%: 4,627: 68,240: +4.8%: 53,344: 45,349: +7,205: +19%
13: - 16: 134,557: +8,412: 80,832: 60.1%: 5,958 : 4.4%: 4,981: 70,383: +3.1%: 59,212: 53,763: +8,414: +19%
14: - 16: 145,631: +9,074: 80,832: 55.5%: 6,042 : 4.1%: 5,423: 72,528: +3.0%: 67,447: 64,659: +10.9k: +19%
15: - 11: 156,444 +10,813 80.9kEst 52%: 5,888 : 3.7%: 5,832: 75,799: +4.5%: 68,925: 75,620: +10.0k: +15%
16: - 16: 167,798 +11,354 80.9kEst 48%: 5,639 : 3.4%: 6,451: 75,926: +0.2%: 85,603: 88,717: +13.1k: +17%
17: - 12: 182,403 +14,605 80.9Est 44%: 6,163 : 3.4%:   7,144: 78,342: +3.2%: 96,917: 101.7k: +12.9k: +15%
18: - 12: 198,181 +15,778 80.9Est 41%: 7,020 : 3.5%:   7,965: 81,734: +4.3%: 101.5k: 117.3k: +15.6k: +16%
19: - 14: 218,953 +20,772 81k.Est 37%: 7,158 : 3.3%:   8,952: 84,795: +3.7%: 125.2K: 138.1k: +20.8k: +18%
20: - 15: 245,073 +26.1k 81k.Est  33%: 7,378 : 3.0%: 10,041: 88,151: +4.0%: 146.9k: 165.5k: +26.1k: +19%
21: - 15: 274,643 +29.5k 81K.Est 29%: 7,975 : 2.9%: 11.366: 90,942: +3.2% : 172.3k: 194.6k: +29.1k: +18%
22: - 11: 304,999 +30.3k 81k.Est 27%:  9,382 : 3.1%: 13,003: 94,793: +4.2% : 187.8k: 224.0k +29.4k: +15%
23: - 11: 335,511 +30.5k 81k.Est 24%: 10.64k: 3.2%: 14,611: 97,636: +3.0% : 223.4k: 274.5k +30.5k: +14%
24: - 11: 375,536 +40.0k 81k.Est 22%: 12.21k: 3.2%: 16,369: 101584 +4.0%: 257.6k: 314.4k +39.9k: +15%
25: -  7 : 418,099 +42.6k 81k.Est 19%: 12.98k: 3.1%: 18,608: 108323 +6.6%: 291.2k: 357.0k +42.6k: +14%
26: -  9 : 468,012 +50.0k 81k.Est 17%: 14.91k: 0.0%: 21,180: 113,809 +5.1%: 318.1k: 407.0k +50.0k: +14%
27: -  7 : 529,148 +61.1k 81k.Est 00%: 19.5k: 0.0%: 23,976: 123,380 +8.4%: 382.3k: 000.0k +61.1k: +15%
===:
>  CORONAVIRUS STATS / > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

> More Detail > https://ncov2019.live/

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Sad News... for those hoping for an early escape through Recoveries

Macau has new cases.  Now three infected, after they had thought all their cases were recovered.
Now 13 cases = 10 recovered, 3 active, though none of those are critical (yet)

Other "early" countries (with reliable stats) I thought may make it thru to green soon …
Some are still struggling with new cases:

Country — :  #of Cases . %chg.: per M/ Recovs: %Cs : Active: Critic: Deaths. %
Singapore :    266.  +23: +9.5%:  45.5/.      114:  (43%):      152:      14:      0:  0.0%
HongKong :   168   +13: +8.4%:   22.4/.       81:  (48%):        83:        4:        4:  2.4%
Diam.Prin. :    696.  + 0:    + 0%:   === /.     456:  (66%):      233:      15:       7:  1.0%
Compare:
China         : 80,881   + 0 :  +  0%:   56.2 / 68,724: (85%):  8,931: 3,226: 3,226:  0.0%
USA            :   6,439 +1.7k: +30%:  19.5/       106:   (  2%):   6,224:    12:    109: 1.7%
Philippines :       187  +45:  +32%:   1.7 /          5:    (  3%):      170:      1:       12:  6.4%
========

At 30%+ New cases in the Last Day, USA & Philippines are in  Deep Doodoo

Globally,

Non-CHINA CASE are still Rising Fast!  (at like +15%/d), Recoveries: +3-4% daily

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Common Sense on FOOD (supply lines in PH)

"this WAR is 90% logistics"

From Justo Ortiz, Chairman of Union Bank                                                                                     ----------------                                                                                                                                 May I respectfully give an unsolicited advice to those who claim to be experts and trained in crisis management. A graduate of the school of hard knocks like me, wishes to convey some concerns hoping that it will merit your attention:

1. At this point in time of great global difficulty brought about by Covid19, we cannot anymore solely (or partially) rely on imports to feed our population. (Paraphrasing my friend Norberto Chingcuanco).

2. We have to rely on our national capacity and capability to feed our own population.

3. The threat of hunger is worse than the threat of a virus. Even those who survive this virus will have to contend with the lack of food and a non-existent food production and producers

4. Every day that we disrupt the supply chain for food security is a day of food off everybody's table.

5. May I remind everybody that food does not appear like magic. It has to come from somewhere. And that somewhere is sometimes called as "raw materials". If you think that raw materials cannot be eaten, think again.

6. May I also state that these raw materials, including farm produce, do not miraculously come out of a magic box. People, those whom you locked down in their homes and prevented from crossing checkpoints, make your food.

7. Even our enforcers and frontliners will have to fight for food against those whom they aim to protect from this virus.

5. I appeal to our experts in crisis management to please consider organizing mobility corridors for the supply chain to move with ease. These include the manpower and the management in food production.

8. How to do this??? Well, you are the experts. But here is one tip.... get onboard one expert in supply chain management and let him elucidate to you what it means.

9. May I tell you, and I will stand my ground on this, this WAR is 90% logistics, 5% health, 3% enforcement and 1% common sense.

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A CURE?  Just maybe !  worked on 10 of 10!

HCQ Cured 100% of 20 CV Patients, 2986

/ 2 /

(Tucker Carlson's show seems to have boosted Presidential support for the possible cure)

Trump Supports HCQ for Coronavirus, 2987 >

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ur3jLLQCx-A

 

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Here are new cases time lapsed by country and date of first 100 total cases.

 
0*FYzUsTU2RqPix6Xg

Here is a better picture of US confirmed case daily growth.

1*_JoA6wNKSQxFEylJ3hFCEA.png

The United States is tracking with other European nations at doubling every three days or so. As we measure and test more Americans, this will continue to grow. Our time-lapse growth is lower than China, but not as good as South Korea, Japan, Singapore, or Taiwan. All are considered models of how to beat COVID-19. The United States is performing average, not great, compared to the other modern countries by this metric.

Daily growth rates declined over time across all countries regardless of particular policy solutions, such as shutting the borders or social distancing.

 
0*8rcyCr21ElN_Q28v
 
1*hbh7fdIbm1dEv9R9BVSbfQ.png

The daily growth data across the world is a little noisy. Weighing daily growth of confirmed cases by a relative daily growth factor cleans up the picture, more than 1 is increasing and below 1 is declining. For all of March, the world has hovered around 1.1. This translates to an average daily growth rate of 10%, with ups and downs on a daily basis. This isn’t great, but it is good news as COVID-19 most likely isn’t increasing in virality. The growth rate of the growth rate is approximately 10%; however, the data is quite noisy.

> source: https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

 

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Some TRUTH telling - about what is going on in Washington

The Cost Of Coronavirus | Ep. 18

 

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Global numbers slow a bit... While PHL jumps +33% in a day

New CASES, growth per day
== Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s)
17: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.0k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.5k +18%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +30.3k +16%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 + 77: +33.%/ (13, 19)
===

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Breaking News in PHL !!!

"They have found a cure for Covid19" - It is claimed

The treatment is with Hydroxychloroquin Tablets under brandname Plaquenil and Azithromycin 500mg.

Dose is 3 tabs Plaquenil and 1 tab Azithromycin a day. The Plaquenil is taken for 10 days. The usual dose for Azithromycin is for 3-5 days only. Both are available in the Philippines.

Tested on 40 patients. 100% batting average. 6 days to heal. \

The link:

===

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There is so much disparity in the way countries record cases I don't think it's helpful to compare the numbers. Perhaps it's more meaningful to compare the number of deaths but even that is clouded with suspicion...when you look at Italy's death toll compared to China's...Can we really believe China got off that lightly.

The UK is only recording cases that are admitted to hospital for treatment so anyone self isolating at home with mild symptoms is not recorded and Korea is testing and recording anyone and everyone it can.

Then you look at Germany's figures and scratch your head at the death toll which according to Matt Hancock ( UK health minister ) who spoke to his counterpart in Germany is due to the fact the people most affected in Germany were young fit individuals who had been skiing in Italy but there is some suspicion they are using a different method of recording the cause of death and then you have the lies of Thailand and Japan...nothing out of Thailand for weeks and then an explosion of cases as if someone has just said we had better fess up...makes me wonder what is going on in Japan too with the PM there still insisting the olympics will go ahead...no incentive there to be straight.

No one wants to be top of this league.

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After watching Boris today, I think we are not far off lockdown in the U.K, certainly within London anyway.

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USA cases have JUMPED again: +34%!  PHL: +24% IN A DAY.  

NO SIGNS yet of any CURE in the stats, Recoveries up only 3%  ...

New CASES, growth per day
== Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%— /  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / UK --- :
17: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: +3,061: +3.7%/ +20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: +3,356: +4.0%/ +26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4%  ( 8, 17)
21: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 +  13: +6.0%  ( 8, 18)
22: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 +  77: +33.% (13, 19)
23: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 +  73: +24.% (15, 25)/
===

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UK Schools closed, general shops closed. People don't have much to do apart from watch the news, then go panic buy in that order.

Now the sun has come out, and people are flooding into the beaches and countryside spreading disease. They're eating fish and chips and ice cream like everything is normal. The car parks are full, the roads to the seaside are busy, and people are treating it like a public bank holiday. I doubt people can keep 2m apart.

People are moving out from the smoke and into their second or third homes out in the country or to Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon has said this is not acceptable.

From today, a lot of National parks, beach car parks, are going to be closed to stop the community spread.

---

A ICU consultant has been interviewed on radio - he says the situation is very real, and he doesn't know what's going to happen next as the beds are filling up, yet people aren't taking this seriously.

 

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Thought it was coming, hearing too many noises about people not taking it seriously and forces getting briefings. Had an air of inevitability, a shock was needed.

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5 hours ago, notanewmember said:

UK Schools closed, general shops closed. People don't have much to do apart from watch the news, then go panic buy in that order.

. . . A ICU consultant has been interviewed on radio - he says the situation is very real, and he doesn't know what's going to happen next as the beds are filling up, yet people aren't taking this seriously

 

It is surely real.

Friends of friends have Covid, and two have died

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GOOD NEWS at Last! Curves Bend (a little)

There is now a small BEND in the growth curves on Covid cases.  this could be meaningful

Mar #Cases: #Chg.: #CHINA: C.Pct: Critical: -%-: Death: Recov.s: %Rec: Active: Non-C: #chg.
23: 335,511 +30.5k 81k.Est 24%: 10.64k: 3.2%: 14,611: 97,636: +3.0% : 223.4k: 274.5k +30.5k: +14%
24: 375,536 +40.0k 81k.Est 22%: 12.21k: 3.2%: 16,369: 101584 +4.0%: 257.6k: 314.4k +39.9k: +15%
25: 418,099 +42.6k 81k.Est 19%: 12.98k: 3.1%: 18,608: 108323 +6.6%: 291.2k: 000.0k +42.6k: +14%

New CASES, growth per day
== Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s)
17: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 + 77: +33.%/ (13, 19)
23: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 + 73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 + 82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +9,279 +21%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
===

THE BIG JUMP in RECOVERIES, up 6.6% in a day, is a good sign.

Part of that is just aging of a larger number of Cases - but I have been wanting to see that jump.

The other good news is the drop in growth rate of new non-China case, but the fall from 15% to 13.5% is not so meaningful.

We need to see New cases growing at less than 10%, and recoveries growing at over 10% per day

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Just as I was seeing some signs in the Global picture of some slight bending of the Curve,

THIS very bad chart for the US came out...

ZNZR3Bc.jpg

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Improvement hardly shows; Hope index = -9% (recv+5%, -cases+14%)

New CASES, growth per day
== Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
17: - 12%: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: - 12%: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: - 14%: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: - 15%: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: - 11%: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: - 11%: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 +  77: +33%/ (13, 19)
23: - 12%: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 +  73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +9,279 +21%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
26: -  9 %: +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +10.8k +20%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)

====

With the (non-China) world at 14%, and USA, Philippines, & UK all at 15% or higher daily growth, the picture remains solidly negative

 

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INSANITY

I get that Brits don't like to be told what to do, but this is insanity!

_111266751_mediaitem111266750.jpg

The Bath half marathon has gone ahead despite an outcry over it taking place during the coronavirus crisis.

The Premier League and Football League have been cancelled over the weekend but organisers denied they were being irresponsible by pressing ahead.

They said said 6,200 runners took part - about half the usual number.

> https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-bristol-51893095

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PHL is so much better than USA & UK, with 11% daily rise, just half of the horrible growth rates in the other two

New CASES, growth per day
== Hope : Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s) / U.K., +cases, +% (recvs, D’s)
17: - 12%: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: - 12%: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: - 14%: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: - 15%: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: - 11%: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: - 11%: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 +  77: +33%/ (13, 19)
23: - 12%: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 +  73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: - 11%: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 +  82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: -  7 %: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +9,279 +21%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
26: -  9% : +5,486: +5.1%/ +50.0k: +50.0k +14%/ +10.8k +20%/ 636 +  84: +15%/ (26, 38)/ 9,529 +1452 +18% (135, 465)
27: -  7% : +9,571: +8.4%/ +61.1k: +61.1k +15%/ +15.5k +23%/ 707 +  71: +11%/ (28, 45)/ 11.7k +2129 +22% (135, 578)
====

HOPE improved thanks to the jump to 8% in the growth of recoveries

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I was going to blow a fuse about the half marathon and then I realised that was 2 weeks ago before the lockdown at the same time as the Cheltenham festival had 70.000 racegoers in attendance just up the road.

 

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We are all living in the shadows of bad decisions, some of them our own

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Professor Who Predicted 500K UK Deaths Now Says Under 20K Will Die, Peak In Two Weeks

Imperial College London's Neil Ferguson - who originally estimated 500,000 deaths in the UK due to Coronavirus, now says that the virus will peak in just two or three weeks, and that UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, according to NewScientist.

neil%20ferguson.png

The need for intensive care beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at a national level, said Ferguson. The projections are based on computer simulations of the virus spreading, which take into account the properties of the virus, the reduced transmission between people asked to stay at home and the capacity of hospitals, particularly intensive care units. -NewScientist

Why the change of heart from Ferguson - who himself has contracted COVID-19?

Ferguson - whose 'Terrifying' research from just 10 days ago predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US and that the UK would need to be under quarantine for 18 months or more - now says that coronavirus will not overwhelm the UK's ICU beds, and that over 1/2 of those it will kill would have died by the end of the year anyway because they were so old and sick.

His reasoning is that estimates of the virus's transmissibility are much higher than previously thought - and that many more people have gotten it than we realize, making it less dangerous overall.

> https://www.zerohedge.com/health/prof-who-predicted-500k-deaths-uk-has-startling-change-heart-now-predicts-under-20k-two-week

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