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DrBubb's Diary - Q1. 2020 Trading - v.132

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BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

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FEMINISM IS DYING fast !

When hard times arrive, woman give up on feminism.

They want a strong man to take charge, take responsibility,  and offer strong leadership

And we all want genuine wisdom (from either sex), rather than delusional nonsense

The Coronavirus Is A DISASTER For Feminism...

/ 2 /

Crisis EXPOSES Narcissistic Feminism, Hard Times Show The Ideology Falls Apart Under Pressure

/ 3 /

Why Voter Turnout Will Be the Lowest in History

===

> TOXIC Femininity Thread / Scroll down >

 

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DEBT-fueled Paradygm may reverse soon? New Currency ahead?

xx

1. Peak in Bonds (Done? Or maybe "US Rates will go to negative", as Raoul Paul thinks)
2. More deflation, but many prices are already below production costs, so limited downside
3. Inflation measures bottom, then prices will start to rise.  The Fed may fear raising rates.
4. Inflation recovers fast, & rages out of control, & eventually the Dollar weakens?
5. Dollar weakness may lead to a currency reset, perhaps using govt backed Cryptos

SPX - since 1978 / Last: 2,305 -4.3% vs. YrH (3,394) : -32.1%

ti03iro.gif

Bonds. TLT/ Long term Treasuries etf : All / Last: $159.43 +7.5% vs. YrH (179.70) : -11.3%

qtDKLO2.gif

The previous spike on TLT ($121.9 on 12.30.08) came almost 100 days before the Low in SPX ($676.5 on 03.09.09)

mn1gTM6.gif

INFLATION Measures - Crashing Fast... but for how long?
USO / Oil ... All : Last: $4.94 -8.0% / $xx vs. Yr.H: ($13.85 / $xx) : - 64.3%

diUUjZg.gif

DBA / Agriculture ... All : Last: $13.99 +0.8% vs. Yr.H: ($16.99) : -17.7%

TMuXHLk.gif

GLD / Gold... All : Last: $140.11 +1.5% vs. Yr.H: ($159.37) : -12.1%

Dc5voOI.gif

==

 

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from NEW THREAD in the Main section

GOLD looks like it could go either way...,

Shoot up to $2000+, or drop down to maybe $1000 over the next year or two.

In fact, Robert Prechter's EWT (Elliott Wave Theory) thinks gold has peaked, and could be headed back towards $1000 (GLD $100) : chart

But that may not happen.

I am more inclined to take a clue from that past. when TLT-Bonds shot up sharply in the GFC, in late 2008. 

It looked like this: chart

ShjQ6r1.gif

As today, in the 2008-9 Global Crisis, TLT shot up by xx% in a few weeks, and SPX dropped : chart.

There was a brief DIP in Gold over a few days back to $80, and then as TLT gradually gave up its gains, Gold rose and rose.

Over the next year or so, as TLT fell -28%, Gold rose +55% to GLD-$124, or Gold-$1300 (x10.5).

Might we see the same thing once again?

Let's look at the last few weeks... GLD-vs-TLT ... since Sep.2019 : 10d :

ODyHNv8.gif

Bonds may be close to a final peak above the $171 close, or perhaps they had it already

If the 2009 patterns follows, bonds drop about 20% over 1 year plus, while Gold rises 50%+ ($2,400+) in 2021.

(I will also look at Silver)

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Are you guys aware of David Wilcock's recent videos about the PANDEMIC?

He says the Virus is real, and a danger to some - but the disruption will not last long/

He thinks it will be used as a Cover for the MASS ARRESTS he has been talking about a long time ago.

I am trying to confirm key parts of his narrative.

One interesting part was the recent arrest of the Harvard professor, Charles Leiber, who lied about his ties with China, and was arrested

Wilcock claimed they found vials of Coronavirus, hidden in his socks

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GOLD Jumps on Fee easing gold refineries closing///


Gold rises over 1.7% as U.S. Fed ramps up support measures
Kitco News

March 24 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday, following a near 4% jump in the previous session after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced unprecedented measures to support an economy which is reeling from the coronavirus pandemic.

FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold climbed 1.7% to $1,578.83 per ounce by 0116 GMT. The metal rose 3.7% on Monday, its highest percentage gain since June 2016.

* U.S. gold futures rose 1.6% to $1,592.20 per ounce.
* For the first time, the Fed will back purchases of corporate bonds, backstop direct loans to companies and will "soon" roll out a program to get credit to small and medium-sized business.
* Asian shares were set to rally as the U.S. central bank pledged to help the economy from a fallout. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.5% in early trade.
* President Donald Trump said on Monday he is considering how to reopen the U.S. economy when a 15-day shutdown ends next week, even as the coronavirus spreads rapidly.
* A far-reaching virus economic stimulus package remained stalled in the U.S. Senate on Monday as Democrats said it contained too little money for states and hospitals and not enough restrictions on a fund to help big businesses.
* Global central banks also took various measures to mitigate the damage of the outbreak, with Australia's;s central bank proposing to buy $2.35 billion in government bonds, while Germany agreed for a package worth up to $808 billion.
* Three of the world's;s largest gold refineries said on Monday they had suspended production in Switzerland for at least a week after local authorities ordered the closure of non-essential industry to curtail the spread of the virus.
* Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , rose 1.8% to 923.99 tonnes on Monday.

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GOOD NEWS at Last! Curves Bend (a little)

There is now a small BEND in the growth curves on Covid cases.  this could be meaningful

Mar #Cases: #Chg.: #CHINA: C.Pct: Critical: -%-: Death: Recov.s: %Rec: Active: Non-C: #chg.
23: 335,511 +30.5k 81k.Est 24%: 10.64k: 3.2%: 14,611: 97,636: +3.0% : 223.4k: 274.5k +30.5k: +14%
24: 375,536 +40.0k 81k.Est 22%: 12.21k: 3.2%: 16,369: 101584 +4.0%: 257.6k: 314.4k +39.9k: +15%
25: 418,099 +42.6k 81k.Est 19%: 12.98k: 3.1%: 18,608: 108323 +6.6%: 291.2k: 000.0k +42.6k: +14%

New CASES, growth per day
== Recovs. + % + / Cases : NonCh +%—/  USA — : +%-/ Philippines +% (recv,D’s)
17: +2,416: +3.2%/ +14.6k: +13.0k +15%/
18: +3,392: +4.3%/ +15.8k: +15.6k +16%/
19: +3,061: +3.7%/+20.8k: +20.8k +18%/
20: +3,356: +4.0%/+26.1k: +26.1k +19%/ +4,661 +50%/ 217 +  15: +7.4% ( 8, 17)
21: +2,791: +3.2%/ +29.5k: +29.1k +19%/ +5,317 +39%/ 230 + 13: +6.0% ( 8, 18)
22: +3,841: +4.2%/ +30.3k: +29.4k +15%/ +4,835 +25%/ 307 + 77: +33.%/ (13, 19)
23: +2,843: +3.0%/ +30.5k: +30.5k +14%/ +8,254 +34%/ 380 + 73: +24%/ (15, 25)/ 5683
24: +3,948: +4.0%/ +40.0k: +39.9k +15%/ +9,454 +28%/ 462 + 82: +22%/ (18, 33)/ 6650  + 967 +17% (135, 335)
25: +6,739: +6.6%/ +42.6k: +42.6k +14%/ +9,279 +21%/ 552 +  90: +19%/ (20, 35)/ 8077 +1427 +21% (135, 422)
===

THE BIG JUMP in RECOVERIES, up 6.6% in a day, is a good sign.

Part of that is just aging of a larger number of Cases - but I have been wanting to see that jump.

The other good news is the drop in growth rate of new non-China case, but the fall from 15% to 13.5% is not so meaningful.

We need to see New cases growing at less than 10%, and recoveries growing at over 10% per day

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Bo Polny – New Era of Time Starts in April -Jesus Coming Back (something big at Passover)

> LINK to his presentation:

He's a cycles analyst, sometimes hits it on the mark.  (But he is often wrong, and then quickly forgets that - I have a thread showing that.)

In the interview, he clearly states: "we are at D, ready for a sharp plunge into E... in April"

GH: "sharp plunge into  DOW 15,000 or whatever"

4WtNF1s.gif

Above is my own target, done many days ago (in showing in earlier post on this thread) : about 16,000

"Between now and the END of 2022, I am looking for a terrible stock market,

Stocks should have a hyper-inflationary rally in Sept. or year end, followed by a huge drop (into end 2022,)

===== =====

"DANIEL's TIME LINE"

Epic Gold, Silver Rise & Markets Plunge in April –Bo Polny

Bo-Polny-3.29.2020-pic-300x284.png

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release)

Cycle expert and financial analyst Bo Polny predicted a market crash in the stock market on February 9, 2020. A few weeks later, it nosedived 36% in the fastest crash in the history of the markets. Is it over? Not according to Polny. He contends, “When gold was shooting up into the $1,600 range in February along with silver and mining stocks, I said don’t get too excited because the market was going to top out the end of February, and then gold and silver will have a down cycle in the month of March. That’s what happened. Why did I schedule the interview at the end of March? The end of March is a final entry point to get in on gold and silver positions. Once April comes, gold and silver will do the opposite. Again, please understand my words, they will do the opposite of what they did in March.

> more: https://usawatchdog.com/epic-gold-silver-rise-markets-plunge-in-april-bo-polny/#more-23165

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: Fav5 (w/WM.t):

hBwycTv.gif

Kicking off historic bull run: 'Look for new record highs above $1,921' — Credit Suisse

The comparisons between today's gold price action and that of 2008 are gaining popularity with Credit Suisse now expecting the COVID-19 crisis to eventually push gold to new record highs of above $1,921 an ounce.

“We remain major long term Gold bulls, with the market encouragingly back above its 200-day average having held above key support at $1,452/1,446,” Credit Suisse said in a note last week. “We still look for new record highs above $1,921.”

. . .

During the 2008 financial crisis, gold first saw a sharp sell-off, but following the intervention from the Federal Reserve, the precious metal eventually began to rise, kicking off a historic bull run.

“It's important to note that Real Yields have stopped rising and we still believe a similar dynamic will play out to 2009 when after a sharp initial correction in 2008, gold eventually went on to make new all-time record highs,” Credit Suisse said.

From the technical perspective, gold’s initial resistance is currently above $1,700 an ounce while support is at around $1,450, the note pointed out.

“Resistances above $1,700/05 are eventually seen at $1,734, the 78.6% retracement of the 2011/15 down move, then the $1,796/1,803 corrective highs from 2011/12,” Credit Suisse said. “Key support remains at $1,452/46, below which now completes a top to suggest a much-protracted correction, with the next support at $1,374/48.”

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