Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Q1. 2020 Trading - v.132

Recommended Posts

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif :

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Charting near-term technical damage, S&P 500 ventures under key support

 

Focus: Crude oil confirms bearish trend shift, 10-year yields tags three-month low, Gold extends technical breakout, China pressured amid virus concerns, USO, TNX, GLD, FXI

Author photo

By

MichaelAshbaugh

Technicals columnist

Editor’s Note: This is a free edition of The Technical Indicator, a daily MarketWatch subscriber newsletter. To get this column each market day, click here.

Technically speaking, the major U.S. benchmarks have pulled in sharply from recent record highs, pressured amid the most aggressive selling pressure since October.

Against this backdrop, near-term damage has been inflicted to the S&P 500’s backdrop, though its more important intermediate-term bullish bias is intact.

MW-HZ148_202001_20200128094805_NS.gif?uu
 
MW-HZ149_202001_20200128094806_NS.gif?uu
 

Before detailing the U.S. markets’ wider view, the S&P 500’s SPX, -0.09%  hourly chart highlights the past two weeks.

As illustrated, the S&P has pulled in sharply from record highs.

Tactically, the breakout point (3,258) pivots to resistance, a level matching Monday’s session high (3,258.8).

 

This is followed by the 20-day moving average, currently 3,275, and resistance matching the former range bottom (3,280). A retest of this area from underneath is underway early Tuesday.

MW-HZ161_202001_20200128111101_NS.gif?uu
 

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.04%  has extended a pullback from record highs.

Consider that Monday’s close (28,535) registered just three points under the 2019 close (28,538), briefly placing the index in negative year-to-date territory.

From current levels, the 2019 peak (28,701) is followed by the Dow’s former breakout point (28,872), an area also detailed on the daily chart.

(but HOW GOOD is this armchair type commentary?)

The Nemesis of Stock Market Technical Analysis

clip_image0012.jpg

In recent weeks, there have been numerous technical analysts who have declared that the stock market has topped out and that we should prepare for tough sledding in the months and years ahead.  The problem is that we have been hearing dire warnings from practitioners of chart theory for more than ten years.  Over that span of time, every single bearish analyst has been dead wrong.  Not only didn’t the market collapse as they predicted, the stock market has climbed steadily to new heights.  Periodic short-term corrections along the way have had no serious impact on the uptrend.

Someone throwing darts in the dark would have fared better.  So, what went wrong?  Two factors more than anything else may account for the dismal performance of market technicians: (1) the steady growth of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and (2) manipulative high frequency algorithmic trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Siyata Mobile is gaining some good business; Large orders

I bought some Convertible Debs here - they have a high yield*, (12%) but are unquoted

SIM / Siyata ... update / Last: $0.29 / 12mo Range: 0.26 - 0.60

RgMcGxI.gif

xx

2020-01-16 23:31 C:SIM 0.30 Private Placement - Debenture Siyata Mobile $7,866,000 debenture private placement

Convertible debenture:  $7,866,000 face value : Maturity: Dec. 23, 2021

Conversion price:  convertible at 45 cents into 17.48 million shares and 7,866,000 warrants
Warrants:  Each warrant is exercisable into one common share at 45 cents until Dec. 23, 2022.
Interest rate:  12 per cent per annum
Number of placees:  58 placees (one was me!)

(Meantime, product orders are coming in strong...)

2020-01-27 08:10 C:SIM 0.28 News Release Siyata Mobile receives $1.1M order for Uniden UV350

Siyata Mobile Inc. has received a $1.1-million purchase order for the Uniden UV350 in-vehicle IoT (Internet of things) device from a major U.S. cellular business-to-business distributor servicing cellular carriers, first responders and commercial fleets across the United States.

Marc Seelenfreund, chief executive officer of Siyata Mobile, commented: "This marks the single largest purchase order for the UV350 to date and we are very pleased to be working with this highly specialized B2B distributor in the U.S. With the necessary carrier approvals, growing distribution channels and numerous high-value trials in place, we anticipate continued growing adoption of the UV350 in the primary and extended first responder market and commercial fleet verticals."

Available through AT&T, FirstNet, Verizon, Rogers and Bell, the Uniden UV350 is the world's first dedicated in-vehicle IoT device with carrier grade push-to-talk over cellular (PoC), dedicated speakers and microphones for mission critical sound quality, and a large 5.5-inch widescreen for easy navigation, monitoring and functionality.

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WHAT A JOKE this is!

"House managers used ’overwhelmingly’ and ’prove’ 64 times… Still Want Witnesses

->  https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/01/29/live-updates-trump-impeachment-trial-senators-ask-questions/

(Reality: they have an extremely poor and unproven case, despite their "confident" rhetoric. 

This is destroying the credibility for the Rogue team from the house.... and Helping Trump's elections chances.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LAMAR SPEAKS, America Listens !

TRUMP tweet: "Game over!"

EPkyN_HXkAArhQL?format=png&name=small
NO WITNESSES? TRIAL OVER SOON?

Before Alexander’s statement, Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine said late Thursday she would vote to allow witnesses in the impeachment trial, briefly raising Democrats’ hopes for a breakthrough.

But Alexander minutes later said that “there is no need for more evidence to prove something that has already been proven and that does not meet the U.S. Constitution’s high bar for an impeachable offense.”

Collins, Alexander and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska were playing an outsized role in the final hours of debate with pointed questions. Another Republican senator, Mitt Romney of Utah, has made clear he will vote for witnesses.

Murkowksi is expected to announce her decision on Friday, ahead of voting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BREAKDOWN?: PH STOCKS, including Property stocks are showing signs of Breakdown

Only SMPH, of the top 3, have held up well (so far)

ssIYEIr.jpg

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 5yr : 3yr: from Aug.2016 / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019

JTgoCMu.gif

==

With the Property stock peak now about 6months ago, we may soon be seeing some declines in the physical market;

Assuming the property stock peak is indeed in place,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold moved up to new Yr.H with strong Bonds, & TIPs Bonds: 1.31.2020

GLD-vs: TLT, LTPZ .. Jan.2018: Jul.2019 / $149.33 (vs.YrH: $149.68), TLT: $145.90, LTPZ: $77.13

eeireX6.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How are Stocks Going Up While Earnings Go Down?

image.png

by Tom McClellan The primary driver of stock prices is supposedly earnings, right?  So how is it that earnings as a percentage of GDP have been falling since a peak … Read more

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The real bubble?  it is in ETF stocks. 

I have just heard a very fascinating interview about this.  I will psot a link here shortly.  The argument in the interview is to "look for stocks below the ETF line" (which may not be included in popular indices for a number of reasons.)  Wky?  because when the MASS SELLING comes, it will be the indices and etfs that get sold.  And the stocks in the index will get pound.  And the ones outside it, may be relatively unscathed.  A very interesting idea, which was well-presented

Why We're in the Biggest Financial Bubble in History (w/ Steve Bregman & Mike Green) >

==

Stocks like KRO, VHI, DHX & WILD.t, that I have been buying recently are "below the etf line"

For that matter, GCM.t my favorite Gold stock, has also been outside the GDX & GDXJ index 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"SOCIALISTS ... Do NOT know how to Create wealth, only how to Redistribute & Destroy wealth" -

DrBubb > http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/topic/22504-socialism-its-failures-media-university-complicity/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

LONGING for Silver? (again)

I am waiting for the Right moment on THIS Chart

SIL / Silver Share Index vs. Silver

SIL vs- SLV, GDXJ ... 6mo / Last

gjscHam.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SILVER Shares are Precious too!

Silver shares (SIL) might be a cheaper way to play Precious metals

GDXJ - SIL  vs SLV, OIH... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 / GDXJ: $40.25 -1.71%, SIL: $30.60 -2.05%, SLV: $16.54 -0.54%. R-185%
WBF3ymH.gif

Ratio: SIL: $30.60 -2.05%, SLV: $16.54 -0.54%. R-185%

80iJekm.png

SLV toGLD Ratio

0BJXhRJ.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OIL to GOLD Ratio - Signals possible Buying point

yqHQSeN.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The MENTAL GYMMNASTICS the Dems go thru to maintain their delusions, take my breath away

(Like in this passage - from an AP article, Democrats on edge after 2020 election season's ragged launch )

"For now, he’s relishing what he views as a deeply flawed Democratic field and a political terrain that appears to be shifting in his favor. Though he will face re-election as an impeached president, the congressional investigation and trial has only strengthened his hold on the GOP and done nothing to hurt his overall approval ratin g with voters.

The economy, which can be a bulwark or an anchor for a president, continues to grow. An employment report out Friday showed more 225,000 jobs created in January.

Trump remains reviled by most Democrats, and many in the party believed heading into the election year that disdain for Trump would be a chief motivator for its voters. Yet the Iowa caucuses showed no sign of heightened enthusiasm."

Make some minor changes, and the Truth shines thru:

"(The President faces a) deeply flawed Democratic field and (the) political terrain appears to be shifting in (Trump's) favor. Though (Dems had hoped) he (would) face re-election (labeled) as an impeached president, the congressional investigation and trial (have) only strengthened his hold on the GOP and done nothing to hurt his overall approval ratin g with voters.

The economy, which can be a bulwark or an anchor for a president, continues to grow. An employment report out Friday showed more 225,000 jobs created in January.

Democrats (lack winning policies and a strong candidate.) Many in the party believed heading into the election year that (their) disdain for Trump would be a (sufficient) motivator (to get the vote out). Yet the Iowa caucuses showed no sign of enthusiasm (for Dems or their message)"

The Dems are in big trouble, but are reluctant to accept the Truth, still after many months of distracting themselves and American with failing witchhunts and strained conspiracy theories. 

We need discernment, friends, discernment. Because we can easily see the Lie Stream Media is part of the pointing away from Truth

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TIME to Get Serious about OIL?  Maybe very serious !

XLE / Oil Major etf ... All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / $53.98, PER: n/a, Yield: 4.16%

vs.Yr.L: $52.55 vs. All-time.H: $101.29 (6.23.2014) - Yr.L was 51.9% of All.time.High

1AS7bRR.gif

Could a resurgence in inflation be ahead?  With rising Oil, Energy, & Copper prices?

XLE/Oil Shares vs. USO, Copper, U.t ... from 2010: 2016: 2yr: 1yr / Last:

lSRetpc.gif

==

Ratio: Oil (WTI) to Copper: 19.7X

ir7bpTg.png

Ratio: Oil (WTI) to Gold: 3.2%

ByKztfD.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m asking myself, will oil go high with a set up more looking like weak global demand? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/9/2020 at 7:25 PM, jerpy said:

I’m asking myself, will oil go high with a set up more looking like weak global demand? 

Charts dont answer fundamental questions like that one, unfortunately

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ENERGY JUMP - strong opening rally today, off monday's gap down low

XLE et al ... 10d/ Last: 54.41 +1.3%, xop: $18.97 +1.3%, oih: $11.19, +2.0%

ZKqQ8no.gif

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

China stocks have rallied back to the fracture point.

It may be tough to rally further

HK;2823 ... 2-yr / Last: $14.42 - 0.08

B7Fmh8n.gif

It is right at the fracture point now (think of a bone fracture) and it will take some strong buying to get through this level

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A BIG DAY for WILD-brain, today maybe? 

After what I call, a "Key Mid-channel bounce" (see explanation, below.)

This could be an ideal inflection point. Because Wildbrain is scheduled to release the Last Quarter's earnings today.

If the Earnings Report is better than expected, this could have a nice positive impact on the stock.

Prior earnings gave a hint of a possible emerging turnaround, and insiders invested Millions, in the recent share placement

So I am optimistic, though recent price action has been weak

WILD ... 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ Last: $1.53 + $0.04, Open: $1.49, High: $1.55, Low: $1.44. vol. 86,900

p2iYYyx.gif

===

The Set-up may be right for an important Low to be in place. WILD's stock could be set for a new longterm uptrend.

D_LxLTBU4AAnaqs.jpg

WILD is Not a Falling knife. That risk is avoided, so long as the Year's Low near $1.35-1.40 holds

Here's why:

+ Chart set-up: See the Down trending channel above, which I have identified with the labels: Upper & Lower.

I usually also draw a middle Line, a Mid-point, which I have identified with the "MId" label above.

Old & useful advice is: "Do not catch a falling knife (see above).... Wait for the stock price to Bounce" (off a support level.)

We have seen a BOUNCE. What we often see in a bottom formation is... First, a Low. like the Low <$1.40 in August.

Then, a bounce to the Top of the channel. or above, like the $2.22 in Oct.  Then, a final retest of the Low, but where

that retest happened near the old low, & at the mid-point of the channel. 

WILD is now a textbox example of the ideal Bottoming Set-up pattern.

+ Fundamentals: WILD has been losing money in recent quarters, but this may be set for a turnaround

+ Committed New Management: New management came and, and raised money, committing about C$30M of their own

funds, and this came at a higher price (C$1.67) than the current one (C$1.53.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CAUTIONARY COMMENTS  on PH stocks - from a Viber chat
Is the PH Stock Market "Too Small (& too backward) to bother"?

I think you will find the chat excerpts which I have just added to the thread on GEI to be
Interesting and highly relevant to PH based & Global investors.
There are also some long term charts, and some specific stock ideas.
This might be one of the best threads on PH stocks, for people reading here.
(If good comments are made here about that content, I might pick them up and
Post them back on that other thread):


See thread > Scroll down past the charts for the comments in the last post
http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/topic/22569-psei-valuation-pe-ratios-the-2020-starter-portfolio/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TREATED as a "containable shock" so Far - "On the ground, it is completely different"

The Economic Effects of Coronavirus Are Spreading Says El-Erian

Chinese companies are announcing "they will lay people off, and NOT PAY them"

"Four big themes are being accelerated"

+ Globalization

+ Climate change / + (two more)

El-E. is pushing the Global agenda here, saying that "smart companies" should embrace these.

Really?  I think some smart people may be thinking the opposite.  Like maybe, Travel Less!

/ 2 /

Coronavirus: How is it affecting the global economy? - BBC Newsnight

Globally, we are seeing: Shortages and Prices rises for items coming from China, esp. electronic gear, and semi-conductors

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×