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DrBubb's Diary - Q1. 2020 Trading - v.132

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Sure.

You have been in great form Dr B and I always say anyone who claims to have 100% winners is a liar, nobody is that good or perfect.

BUT there have some consistent winning picks or themes to explore, research or look for similar flagged up.

===== (following was added by DrBubb) =====

 ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN : 

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

=====

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21 minutes ago, jerpy said:

Sure.

You have been in great form Dr B and I always say anyone who claims to have 100% winners is a liar, nobody is that good or perfect.

BUT there have some consistent winning picks or themes to explore, research or look for similar flagged up.

Yeah, 

I would never claim 100% perfect picks.  And some stocks take time to get their footing.

This thread : Cycles, & GEI's 3-Favorite Gold shares ...might be a good one to see my favorite Gold related stocks.

And I am hoping others will make suggestions to add there

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STOCKS HAVE REACHED MY TARGETS, what next?

IWM is very near its 170+ high.  SPY is over 330.  INDU is in the 29,000-30,000 range

Here's IWM... 3-years / Last: 169.07.  Day's High: 170.55

2icTydq.gif

IWN- vs. SPY. DOW/INDU ... 3-years : INDU-last: 29,348

7eGfBHj.gif

SPY on its own: 3-years : Last: 331.95 +1.03, +0.31%. Day.H: 332.18

SPY-335 now looks like a better TARGET than 330 was.

Ve6DBms.gif

: 5-yrs: Last: 331.95

PcsfQ3N.gif

===

YES, stock indicies could go higher,. but I will be watching for signs of a faltering rally now.

The best time to sell, hedge, or short is NOT when you think we might be hitting a top (since this could be wrong),

but AFTER you see clear signs of the rally faltering !

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GOLD vs OIL shares (& Oil, Natgas)

GDX versus XLE ... 5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $28.42 / $59.12 = 48.1%

rX790f1.gif

Ratio: : $28.42 / $59.12 = 48.1%

2efs6J5.png

Gold to Oil Ratio... a pop to a Ratio of 29-30x coming?  Then what?

cpwamrQ.png

Gold to Natgas Ratio: already at an extreme maybe?  But how to play it?

kinhkn0.png

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Natgas is Weak...  in the middle of Winter

UNG / Natural Gas etf ... fr. 2017: 2018 / 5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $15.54 (New Low)

aRuhF8V.gif

UNG vs some Natgas stocks: fr.2017 /

ybicPos.gif

WHICH STOCKS (if not the UNG etf) to play a bounce in Natgas

UNG vs. FTXN (gas stocks) & FCG (small cap gas stocks) .... fr.Aug.2017 : 3yr: 2yr / Last:

FTXN: $16.10, 2.79%Y, 9.0% off $14.77 YrL / FCG: $11.38, 3.04%Y, 15.4% off $9.86 YrL

dmdcBLt.gif

FCG: ETF Constituents - Top 15 / profile

FTXN vs: UNG, GasL (3xBull), NTR ... update /

FLoMoeu.gif

6915901-15786846475962777.png

Source: Yahoo Finance

GASL has net assets of $41.9 million, trades an average of 2.4 million shares each day, and charges an expense ratio of 1.04%.

==

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Summary : Natural gas sits around $2.20 per MMBtu.

Another small withdrawal.

The longer it sits, the lower it could fall.

Apache explodes on a significant oil discovery.

GASL continued to rise.

Looking for more stock ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Hecht Commodity Report. Get started today »

The price of nearby February natural gas futures fell from a high of $2.926 on November 5, as the peak season of demand approached. The most recent low came on January 3 at $2.083 per MMBtu, a decline of 28.8% in just under two months. So far, in 2020, the price of the nearby futures contract has not traded above $2.234, the high from last Friday, January 10.

A combination of warm temperatures and high stockpile levels have weighed on the price of the volatile energy commodity. Technical support from a medium-term perspective stands at the August 2019 low of $2.029 per MMBtu. A test of the $2 level is likely on the horizon, given the bearish price action during the peak season.

Meanwhile, the natural gas equities have done a lot better than the price of the energy commodity over the past weeks. The Direxion Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3X Shares (GASL) rallied sharply from its early December low. Last week, the price reached a level that was double the December low. At the same time, shares of Apache Corporation (APA) exploded higher despite the bearish price action in the commodity it extracts from the crust of the earth.

The longer it sits, the lower it could fall

Last year, the end of the withdrawal season was on March 22, when stocks fell to 1.107 tcf. With around eleven weeks to go before natural gas begins to flow back into storage and stocks rise, the average weekly withdrawal would need to be 185.6 bcf to reach last year's low. Since the most substantial withdrawal so far this winter was 161 bcf, and the temperatures have been warmer than average across the US, stocks will go into the injection season at a far higher level this March compared to in 2019.

With stocks weighing on the price of natural gas and the bearish price trend since early November, the prospects for a move below $2 per MMBtu are rising. At the $2.20 level with spring right around the corner, natural gas looks like a bearish sitting duck.

. . . The quarterly chart illustrates that the first level of technical support sits at the lows from August 2019 of $2.029, which is a gateway to the $2 level. Below there, the March 2016 bottom at $1.611 per MMBtu could act as a magnet for the price of the energy commodity. The growing open interest could include trend-following bears looking for a test of the 2016 low. If the price breaks $2, we could see open interest rise as bears look to push the price lower.

Apache explodes on a significant oil discovery

While natural gas continues to sit near the lows, the news was different for one oil and gas producing company over the past week. Shares of Apache Corporation exploded higher on the news of a significant oil discovery together with Total SA in Surinam.

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10 Bargain Energy Stocks You Can Buy Cheaper Than Insiders Did
SLIDESHOW:

OXY-etc ... update / see prices, below
TacnMwV.gif

GasL vs: xx ... fr. 2017: 2018: Oct.2018:

IKM1GTm.gif

: Oct.2018: GasL ($8.12 -0.54, -6.24%), SPN ($5.19), GPOR ($1.90), RRC ($3.96), SWN ($1.86)

9pywedD.gif

Sym. /  Company---- : Price : BkVal: Insdr: Shs-OS : MkCap: / Yield : PER : EntV: Ebitda: EV/Eb:
GPOR/ Gulfport Energy: $1.90: 22.28: $2.42: 159.7M: $303.M/ - N/A-: 5.14: 2.43B: 1.01B:  r-2.41 :
SPN -/ Superior Energy: $5.19: $9.14: $0.83: 14.68M: $762.M/ - N/A-: N/A-: 1.20B: 280M: r-4.30 :
OXY -/ Occidental Petr.: 45.83: 29.46: 50.22:   893.M: $40.9 B/ 6.89%: 8.49: 101.B: 8.43B: r-12.0 :
Other:
RRC -/ Range Res.—— : $3.96: 16.88: $0.00: 251.M: $996.M/ 1.83% : N/A- : 4.16B: 1.20B: r-3.48 :
SWN -/ So’western Egy: $1.86: $5.81: $0.00: 541.M: $1.01B/  0.00% : 5.17: 3.40B: 1.28B: r-2.65 :

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Hang Lung Properties (HK101) has jumped ahead of HK10 again... and even more so, the China Index

HK101 vs: HK10 (HL Group) & HK2823 ... update 10d : $19.24 +0.22, $20.95 +0.05, $15.62 Unch.

bbSL3pw.gif

Date----- : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio-- / HK2823: ratio%/ Dv.80 : Dv.75: gap- : R.Yields:
BookVal. : $65.45: $30.73: NMF- : r213.% / ============ / 80cts. 75cts. 5cents: R-div. :
Earns/sh.: $ 3.88 : $ 1.80 : $2.08: r216.% /

Dividends:  $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05: r107.% /
01/20/20 : $20.95: $19.24: $1.71: r108.9%/ $15.62: r-134.%/ 3.82% 3.90%: 0.08%: r97.9%:
01/10/20 : $20.50: $18.58: $1.92: r110.3%/ $15.58: r-132.%/ 3.90% 4.05%: 0.24%: r96.3%:
12/31/19 : $19.26: $17.10: $2.16: r112.6%/ $15.32: r-126.%/ 4.15% 4.39%: 0.24%: r94.5%:

===

When Dividend yields are so similar, it seems to be a NO BRAINER to Buy HK10 instead of HK101,

Give the sharing of assets, and the much greater Asset Backing of HK10

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NY Times ENDORSES: 2nd Rate, Entitled, & Female

(Let's call a Spade, a Spade: NYT is not what it used to be. Too many Leftwing-ish pussies working there now?)

Liz Warren is "a talented story-teller" (NYT endorses her crafty lying too, it sure seems )

Huckabee rips New York Times for endorsing Elizabeth Warren

==

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He's the NEW "Anti-Woke" Hero!

Laurence Fox Defends His Right to an Opinion After His Controversial Comments | Good Morning Britain

/ 2 /

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A SUCCESSFUL PH INVESTORS’s views & methods for trading in PH market

I want to share some NOTES (on a no-name basis, until I get permission)

Saw a surprisingly good presentation on Technical analysis, sponsored by one of the brokerage firms

The presenter Is a Successful self-employed trader-investor, who used to work for a big PH bank,
And then said he “tripled his salary” when he joined a larger European bank for two years.
Then he went out on his own, and enjoyed enough success as a private trader to buy a
P100 Million house about 2-3 years ago. In addition to his own Trading, he also prepares quarterly
presentations for various large institutional clients.

He gave a very clear presentation on Technical analysis in front of a group of 6-8 people.
Fortunately, he was willing to entertain questions, and I asked him plenty, as did a few of the
Other attendees.  This allowed us to get some real depth of understanding into his current views,
And some of the areas where he enjoyed past success.

/ 2 /

Here-in, I will summarise some of the Bigger Picture views he presented, & I found most interesting
(These are not given in the same order they were presented.)

+ He thinks the PH market peaked about two years ago in Jan. 2018, at over 9,000

+ He does use Elliott waves also and thinks we are in the A wave of an long A-B-C correction that
Could last for some years. He agreed with me observation that we might have recently seen the
Wave 2 of wave 2, and so are headed into a bigger drop

zePKwFC.gif

PSEI : Thu.1.23.2020: Php 7,616.35 + 147.62, + 1.98%. (ALI: 40.80 + 1.40, + 3.55%, DayH: 41.25)

+ 7500-7600 was key support, and it looks like that is gone for now. (Key Support about 5000 or lower?)
+ Other than Cash, there are no (or very few) safe havens for PH based investors

+ Personally, he moved away from PH stocks about two years ago, and now does most of his investing
In the USA and other foreign markets, where etfs, shorts, options and other instruments are allowed

+ He finds it harder to trade now, with some shrinking of volume and illiquidity, as fewer foreign
Investors are active in PH now..  When he was trading in size in PH a few years ago he sometimes
Had to struggle to find the volume he wanted without moving the price too much.
(His trade size on a “big” personal trade might have been P 5 Million or more.)

/ 3 /

CosqMyY.gif

+ Some of his successful trades include Double Dragon (DD) where he approx. Doubled his money,
Riding the stock from the breakout just about P10 to P20, but missing out on the wild ride to P80.

6flsIg6.gif

And Integrated Micro-Electronics Inc (IMI), where he also made many millions.  There were other                                              successes mentioned, but I did not Get them into my notes.

+ When doing technical analysis he makes extensive use of parallel lines as support and resistance
Levels. He likens these to floors and ceilings, and talked about market action being like a tennis ball
Hitting those levels and trying to break through. He talked about techniques he uses to identify
When the action might be ready to make a break. Coiled and tight action below a resistance level
With higher lows. Can be a sign of a coming breakout, especially when buying volume rises.

+ we agreed that gaps can be meaningful and can be a warning or confirmation that a trend is
Changing or has changed.

I will certainly be interesting in seeing more presentations by this gentleman.
And I will show him a copy of these notes, and ask if he would like to join our Viber chat

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, December 23, 2019

Short bets against long-term Treasury bonds hit record as economic pessimism wanes

Speculators have amassed a record level of short wagers in futures for U.S. long-term government bonds, which have profited from a significant run-up this year.

The growing willingness of bond bears to place bets on a reversal of this year’s bond rally represents an about-turn from August when investors feared an impending recession as the economy succumbed to trade-driven headwinds.

Those concerns now have abated and a growing camp of investors see potential green shoots coming up in the global economy thanks to a preliminary U.S.-China trade agreement. To be sure, few anticipate a cyclical recovery as high debt levels and a tight labor market prevent an acceleration of growth.

“Shorts in the longest maturity [Treasurys] have soared since the trade war headlines improved,” said Jim Vogel, an interest-rate strategist at FHN Financial.

Non-commercial players, or those who don’t use interest-rate futures for hedging purposes, have placed a record net bullish position of 384,666 future contracts for bonds with maturities of 25 years or more in the week ending in Dec. 10.

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EXCERPT / please visit:Taal Area - Relief Efforts

Attending the Makati Rotary-related Speed Dating session, were two from the Taal area.


Chemist Eric Punzalan, and retired America anthropologist, Richard Hirsch,  live in the Balayan Bay Area
Near Taal. They both live in the area near Taal, and saw the explosion and gas fumes.  They were moved
By what they saw and have become active in relief efforts in the city-town of San Luis just outside the
14km emergency exclusion zone.  (They are also both divers and diving instructors and have a keen
Interest in the environmental impact of the explosion and the evacuation.)

Both government and private relief efforts have resulted in a steady flow of food to the area. A lane on
The highway is blocked to be used for emergency vehicles bringing food etc,
We are at the second stage now of the relief.  Needs beyond food and water need addressing.
Sanitation is a big one.  For example, in San Luis there are 15,000 evacuated people who had to
Leave quickly the high danger zone.  They are now living in community without housing for them:
Covered basketball courts, schools.  There are insufficient toilets, and an urgent need for portajohns.

The waste fluids and human waste need removal and treatment.

There is a flood of plastic piling up: forks, spoons, plates, & bags. Piling up in the area.
Very little waste is being removed, and this will be putting the environment at risk. Since there are
Already inadequate removal of waste plastic.

 

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GCM Soars

$5.65 +0.26, +4,82% / YrH is $5.91

(in edit):

The close was even stronger:

$5.94 +0.55, +10.20% > New High !

Vol. 868.5k

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Ray Dalio Lambastes Bitcoin (BTC), Praises Gold in Davos Bi

Ray Dalio Lambastes Bitcoin (BTC), Praises Gold in Davos Billionaire Ray Dalio continues to criticize Bitcoin (BTC) while encouraging investors to buy more gold Ray Dalio Lambastes Bitcoin (BTC),...read more

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Did some OIL share Call-Buying this week... as Natgas & Oil dragged Energy shares lower

UNG-USO versus MUR & ECA ... update / Friday: $18.00-12.00... $24.00, $3.00

BA5VdyS.gif

===

Sym: Fri.Cl. chg. -pct. / Day.L: Yr.Lo: Off YrL
WTI : $54.19 -1.40, - 2.52%/ 53.85 : 50.52: +7.26%
Ratio: r4.741 ====
USO: $11.43 -0.23, - 1.97%/ 11.31 : 10.49: +8.96%
NGas $1.87 -0.03, - 1.79%/ $1.85: $1.83: +2.19%
UNG: $14.61 -0.33, - 2.21%/ 14.53 : 14.53: +0.55%
MUR: 23.80 -0.41, - 1.69%/ 23.33 : 17.04: +39.7%: BOT Apr.$22.5 Calls
ECA : $ 3.79 -0.25, - 6.19%/ $3.70 : $3.70: +2.43%: BOT Apr,$3.00 Calls
XLE : $56.62 -0.66, - 1.15%/ 55.55 : 56.18: +0.78%
XOP: $20.44 -0.36, - 1.73%/ 20.07 : 19.90: +2.71%
OIH : $11.64 -0.32, - 2.68%/ 11.49 : 10.76:  +8.18%
Ratio: r1.756 ====
Ratio: r29.0x wti/ng

WHAT Did I do?

I bought Calls on MUR and ECA this week - more later

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ENERGY Prices - Last 3 years

WTI Crude Oil

WtfayMf.png

Natural Gas

EjSp3LZ.png

Ratio

PdZlC72.png

XLE / Oil stocks may bottom around $55

oIAkna5.png

==

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THE GREAT BRAINWASHING... by the Lie Stream Media

IN-SHADOW - A Modern Odyssey - Animated Short Film

31.7K subscribers
Embark on a visionary journey through the fragmented unconscious of our modern times, and with courage face the Shadow. Through Shadow into Light.
 
/ 2 /
In Shadow: Where Artists Fear to Tread
==

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SPX - Possible TOP in place, at 3337.77 ?

Hidden messages? (haha: NOT DONE yet on the upside, seems to be the message of numerology)

The Hidden Meaning Behind Angel Number 333.

... It means that your angels are just nearby, ready to help and reassure you that your plans are going well.

The angel number 777 is the number of abundance. When your angels start sending you this message, it means that the abundance you have been waiting for is just there, waiting to be unlocked

On the other hand, the irresistible personalities of repeating number sequence 3 (3, 33 meaning, 333 and 3333) can’t take direction. They rebel against authority and they put things off until it becomes an emergency.

3yr ... update

yreGaVc.png

x

SPX... All data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: yr: 6mo: 10d / Last

wuIzeWT.gif

==

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US company, DHI Group (DHX), an online recruiter - I like the chart, and now have some (modest) exposure

DHX ... update : 1yr: 10d // Key Stats : DHI Group website : presentation :

2fyHdGD.gif

DHX - 3yr

aChPffv.png

DHX Presentation: Cash flow stabilized, Debt coming down

sHcWend.png

Investment Thesis / NYSE: DHX

Market for Online Recruitment Tools is Growing

Tech Market Niche is Attractive and Plays to our IP in Collecting and Mapping Tech Skills

New Management Drives Functional Strength and Focus

Demonstrated Success of Product Innovation with ClearanceJobs

Set for Operating Leverage Expansion and Shareholder Value Creation

Opportunity to Invest at Inflection Point (?)

>pg.18> https://s24.q4cdn.com/133441296/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2019/q3/DHI-Q3-2019-Investor-Presentation-FINAL_.pdf

PODCAST - 3rd Q. Conference Call. (34:06 Minutes)
NOTES
3rd Q summary: Progress in returning to growth
+ Not yet turned the corner (on growth),  but better positioned
+ Major product innovations, esp. at Dice (job search, alerts)
+ Targeting inhouse Tech
+ Hired new sr. sales staff - expecting 12% overall mkt growth
+ Candidate registration is increasing
+ Ebitda margins expected to continue at 22-23%
+ Modest increase in capital expenditures
+ Total debt is only $8M, with Cash of $4.5M
+ Buying back shares.  BOT 367k sh @ aver.: $3.40 continuing
+ Summary: $10M more CF, reducing debt, buying back stock
( Note: Book Value: $3.09 per share vs. Cl.: $2.91. 54M sh.)

> https://78449.choruscall.com/dataconf/productusers/dhx/mediaframe/33055/indexr.html

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: Dom Frisby's email

 

Mr
 
 
17 Million You Know Whats Could Go To Number One
 
 
Dear Beloved Member of the Dominic Frisby Mailing List,
 
Exciting news. There's an outside chance that 17 Million F-Offs, the song I wrote about Brexit, could go to Number One this Friday, January 31, Brexit Day. 
 
As well as competing against the likes of Stormzy, Ed Sheeran and Eminem (who has a new record out) and the big record labels, there is a campaign to get the EU National (!) Anthem, Ode To Joy, to Number One. 
 
However, comedy is a wonderful thing. Though Ode To Joy is currently topping the charts, 17 Million F-Offs suddenly took off yesterday and is now in 2nd on Amazon and 3rd on iTunes. Massive Lollage.
 
Please help this noble cause by buying the single. You can buy it on Amazon here (99p) or at iTunes here (79p). Buying the single is about 150 times more effective than streaming it.
 
Please spread the message far and wide.
 
I'll be donating the profits to charity.

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Charles Nenner: "we still have strong upwards momentum. But soon we will go down in a strong way" 

(He sees up to 40% risk on the downside. His clients are now OUT OF STOCKS/)

IWM- etc: SPY, INDU... 3years: from 1.28.2017 / last: $164.87 +1.36, xxx, yyy

TVrscZT.gif

Note: IWM may be making a right shoulder = "lower high" /

9qKqjJ2.gif

==

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