Jump to content

DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2019 Trading - v.131


Recommended Posts

Druckenmiller likes some commodities - incl. Copper

"We don't own Energy... probably should"

Shifted to: "Owning stuff that will do well in a higher growth world"

Druckenmiller on 2020 Outlook, Monetary Policy, U.S. Election

==

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 73
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

US Fed Wooing Inflation - 19th Dec 19 - Gary_Tanashian

/ 2 /

Three Trends Investors Need To Watch In 2020 - 18th Dec 19 - OilPrice_Com

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this is worth a look.  Some are stranger than reported here, I think

Top 10 Strange Mysterious Places to visit in the world

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TAX SELLING Bargains - for fun & profit

New horizons?  LRA etc - A Bullish PATTERN?

I am almost out of GZZ, Golden Valley.  I have one more tranche (or so) to sell.

I made a nice profit on it - close to a double.  And I am reinvesting the capital in other project generator companies.

LRA is one of them.  Look at this nice repeating pattern. Can we guess what comes next??

(haha. There's no guarantee the big jump will come again, tough the set-up is similar, and tax-selling ends any day now)

LRA.t / Lara Exploration... All-data: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: $0.56 -0.01

 

TxHxUIV.gif

==

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WEEK AHEAD

Gold prices look ready to start the new year with a bang Kitco News

For the fourth straight year, silver was voted as the metal most likely to outperform the other precious metals and copper during the year ahead.

This year, 1,820 people participated in an Outlook 2020 online survey. A total of 794 Main Street voters, or 44%, said they expect silver to fare better than other metals in the year ahead.

Gold came in second place, with 526 votes, or 29%. Another 213 of the survey respondents, or 12%, favored platinum. Voters cast 178 ballots, or 10%, in favor of copper.

Palladium garnered only 109 votes, or 6%. That was the same percentage as a year ago. Of course, palladium confounded voters in 2019, posting a 50% rise so far this year and touching $2,000 an ounce for the first time ever.

Metal_Survey_2020.png

“Silver is the most beat-down metal of them all; just look at the chart,” said one Kitco reader. “It’s found its btm [bottom] and only one way to go -- up! Palladium is in a blow-off parabolic move, which is going to end badly for people buying it right now.”

As of Thursday, the gold-silver ratio stood at a historically high 84.5, meaning it takes 84.5 ounce of silver to buy an ounce of gold. A high number means underperformance by silver, and vice-versa.

A number of Wall Street analysts told Kitco News in recent weeks that they see potential for silver to outperform gold.

"Over the last few years, investment for silver and gold disconnected quite a bit,” said TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali. “Over the last few months, however, there have been signs that the correlation of investment activity for both metals has turned positive again. We are optimistic on the prospect for gold, but we think it will pay off more for those who…purchase silver. We think the industrial demand side of the equation will improve later in the year."

===

Gold managed to surprise traders once more this year with prices rallying alongside record-high equity markets this week. Analysts see the rally continuing with more gains during the first week of the New Year.

Gold moved north of $1,500 an ounce on Christmas Eve, with February Comex gold futures last trading at $1,516.10, up about 2.4% on the week.

Late December is historically a favorable time for gold, with prices usually rallying into year-end and the beginning of January, said RJO Futures senior market strategist Phillip Streible. He added that the precious metal has the potential to rise further next week.

“We finally broke out to the upside. Seasonally, gold starts to rally from about Christmas to the first couple of weeks in January. Gold can go higher next week … looks like it is going to make another legitimate shot towards the resistance at $1,525-50,” Streible told Kitco News on Friday.

Traders are carefully eyeing the political and trade headlines as markets kickoff 2020 next week, hoping the new year will provide answers to some major global uncertainties, including trade tariffs, U.S. presidential election, Brexit and global growth.

In the short term, investors are more optimistic about the U.S.-China trade talks, shifting attention to improved consumer sentiment when it comes to gold in 2020, said Kitco’s senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff.

“It appears metals traders are focusing more on the upbeat consumer demand prospects for gold in the new year, as the U.S. and China have virtually reached a partial trade agreement,” Wyckoff said. “That expected better consumer demand is trumping the negative aspects of a bull run in equities, pulling funds away from the safe-haven metals.”

Looking ahead, gold could be in store for some more gains based on the technical positioning, added Wyckoff.

“Gold has taken on a more bullish near-term technical posture the past two weeks. The near-term trend has turned up, suggesting more sideways-to-higher price action in early January,” he said.

This week’s performance has been the best since August. Overall, gold is up around 18% year-to-date.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interview with Investor Insider, Brian Braga - who bought 6% of GLDX

GLDX vs-GCM.t ... update: Last :$2.20 / $5.40 : xx%

ar49T5m.gif

xx

He likes the valuation of Gold-X, and thinks a takeover can happen... at a much better price

With a  10 Million oz resource, and a market cap of.... xx

... It looks like one of the cheapest ways to play a large Gold deposit

MP3: https://static.tfmetalsreport.com/audio/2019-12/tf-metals-report-20191203-4b5402.mp3

SPECIAL PODCAST: A look at Gold X Mining Corp with Brian Paes Braga

2*eZ99OGb_ffkwSsO3ju7UZA.jpeg
Brian Braga works as Principal, Head of Merchant Banking at SAF Group, a leading structured credit and merchant banking group which builds, invests, finances and advises high growth companies. He’s also on several boards, including serving on the Board of Directors at Thunderbird Entertainment Group Inc., a Vancouver-based content production studio, and on the Board of Directors for metals company, DeepGreen Metals Inc.
I think I may have come across an interesting situation here. When you have a few minutes, please give a listen to this interview. The company in question is called Gold X Mining Corp and the guest is Brian Paes Braga, who previously ran a company called Lithium X and now serves on the Strategic Advisory Board of Gold X Mining. This company was previously known as Sandspring Resources and, as you...
 
Brian Paes-Braga: Lithium Resource Entrepreneur Turns His Attention to the Media Industry
Brian discusses the sale of Lithium X Energy and how he feels very fortunate to be surrounded by the best people in the business like Frank Giustra and Paul Matysek. He says, “Like anything in life, it’s all about the quality of the people and the ambition that drives them.” He explains his new project as chairman of Thunderbird Entertainment (TSX.V:TBRD) and how they plan on leveraging the billion-dollar video on demand media industry. Thunderbird is growing rapidly, and they have a great management team, an excellent CEO, along with 50 million in revenue. Time Stamp References: 1:20 - Building of Lithium X and sale. 3:30 - Business relationships with good people. 6:40 - His background and forming Lithium X. 12:45 - Attracting mentors and highly talented people. 16:10 - Overview of Thunderbird Entertainment 24:00 - Reasons for being publicly listed.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Delingpole: The 2010s Were the Twilight of the Elites

Delingpole: The 2010s Were the Twilight of the Elites

This was the Decade of the Twilight of the Elites. From Brexit to the U.S. presidential election, from Bolsonaro in Brazil to the people’s revolutions that swept Europe, the arrogant, corrupt and complacent political establishments of the old order fought desperately to uphold their rotten hegemony only to be crushed, schooled and humiliated to the point of near-irrelevance by a mighty wave of populism. Here were some of the key moments…

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This could be a Top formation, but somehow does not feel right yet

I will be watching these Highs from last week. Note that SOXX gave a 1-day Early warning

SPY vs-Soxx, Iwm... update / SPY: 321.08 -0.55%, SOXX: 250.42 -0.75%, IWM: 165.44 -0.25%

E3a0beH.gif

SOXX vs-IWM, SPY ... update:

lKk4is8.gif

TZA. FAZ, VIX ... update / Individually: TZA:$54.44, FAZ:$40.56, VIX:$19.87

ibNpKoi.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Analysts are wrong; oil and gold will not outperform in 2020

Macroeconomic fundamentals are not in oil’s favor next year, this according to Simon Watkins, author of An Insider’s Guide To Trading The Global Oil Market.“There’s absolutely no reason whatsoever for oil to go up. We’ve already seen massive geopolitical risk increases,” Watkins told Kitco News, adding that there is a cap on gold as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Majority of bitcoin trading is a hoax, new study finds

Key Points
  • Ninety-five percent of spot bitcoin trading volume is faked by unregulated exchanges, according to a study from Bitwise this week.
  • The firm analyzed the top 81 crypto exchanges by volume on industry site CoinMarketCap.com. They report an aggregated $6 billion in average daily bitcoin volume. The study finds that only $273 million of that is legitimate.
  • “People looked at cryptocurrency and said this market is a mess; that’s because they were looking at data that was manipulated,” says Matthew Hougan, global head of research at Bitwise.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/12/2019 at 11:33 AM, drbubb said:

Greta may have a tough 2020

Trump Jr: TIME Magazine Picks ‘Marketing Gimmick’ Greta Over Hong Kong Protesters For ‘Person of the Year’

ELgcBrYXUAAIfJ1?format=jpg&name=small

So PC, and so Globalist !  I am disgusted!

So young, so angry... so Brainwashed !

Karma is coming - Greta will pay the Price... and David Hogg is paying

Political Groups Exploit Children Like Greta Thunberg And David Hogg Then Discard Them

==

Link to comment
Share on other sites

THREE quantum levels for these stocks,

GCM is in the Lowest highest one, and "trying" to get thru the DOUBLE-the-low resistance at C$5.60.

Gold miners: ... update /

GCM: $5.49, 96.1% over $2.80 Yr’s Low (recent H: $5.76)
GDXJ: $42.39, 52.5% over $27.80, VIT: $9.07, 63.4% over $5.55,  ROXG: $1.03, 43.1% over $0.72

DsHoRjD.gif

==

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EURO ready to roll in 2020/ Have we seen an important Higher LOW in the Euro in late 2019?

EUR - in USD ... All-data : fr.2012 : fr.2015 : at 12.31.19: $1.121 (DXY: $96.06, Gold: $1523.10, AG: $17.93, SLV: $16.68)

yATDKi8.gif

: fr.2012 : fr.2015 :

2D2h3B8.gif

==

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Jonas R -  Oil Jumps as U.S. Strike on Iran General Raises Conflict Fears
(Bloomberg) --Oil jumped close to $70 a barrel after a U.S. airstrike ordered by President Donald Trump killed a top Iranian general in Iraq, intensifying fears of conflict in the world’s most important crude-producing region.
In a turbulent start to the Asian day marked by unusually heavy trading, futures in London and New York surged by more than 4% to levels not seen since the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure in September. The strike near Baghdad airport killed Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force, according to a Defense Department statement

=====

Obviously, any flare-up is likely to push up Oil, and probably precious metal prices too

The OILB et f is up about 5% in London trading

GBS, the Gold etf, is up almost 1.5%

Trading is leaving a GAP UP, and it is often a good trading strategy to "fade" these gaps. But not always

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ENUfZNVUUAAaz86?format=png&name=small

'ACT OF WAR'

US kills revered Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in rocket strike at Baghdad airport as Tehran vows ‘crushing revenge’

IRAN'S most powerful military commander was killed at Baghdad airport on Friday by a US air strike - as the two countries stand on the brink of war.

President Donald Trump personally approved the attack that took out General Qasem Soleimani, the second-most powerful person in Iran

> https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10661549/us-airstrike-iranian-general-baghdad/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LIE STREAM MEDIA hyperbole?

I will probably be selling some of my Silver if th the price rise is large enough - back near old highs

===

Fears of WWIII grow after Donald Trump airstrike kills Iran general

comp-1578040463.png?quality=90&strip=all

The phrase ‘World War 3’ began trending after the killing of the Iranian leader’s second in command in a US airstrike. Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was killed in a bombing ordered by President Donald Trump overnight at Baghdad Airport. After news of his death broke, the country’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei sparked fears of war after he promised ‘harsh vengeance’. Many of those tweeting about the airstrike used memes to bring light to the situation, joking about fears it could spark ‘World War 3’ – a phrase now trending on Twitter. Searches for ‘World War 3’ also spiked on Google within hours of the airstrike in Iraq overnight. Google Trends recorded ‘Iran’ as the second most searched term in the United States, with more than 500,000 searches for the topic.

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/03/world-war-3-trends-donald-trump-airstrike-kills-iran-general-11993960/?ito=cbshare

 

See > AIRSTRIKE thread:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And then...  BAGHDAD AIRSTRIKE ! (early Friday)

UPDATE _ at the Turn of the Year, going into 2020, IWM peaked first : 10d-update

Thu. Jan. 2nd close:
SOXX: 256.29 +5.19, +2.07% O: 254.26, H: 256.29, L: 253.00 (12mo: 150.95 - 256.29)
SPY.  : 324.87 +3.01, +0.94% O: 323.54, H: 324.89, L: 322.53 (12mo: 243.67 - 324.89)
IWM. : 165.78 +0.11,  +0.07% O: 166.74, H: 166.75, L: 164.23 (12mo: 133.72 - 167.12)
XLF.  : $31.08 +0.30, +0.97% O: $30.89, H: $31.08, L: $30.80 (12mo: $23.82 - $31.08)

VpohMyj.gif

==

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/21/2019 at 4:15 PM, drbubb said:

SLV / Silver is one of my tips of the Year 2020

... I bought some Jan $15.50 calls at $0.48.  And SLV closed yesterday at $16.04, and those

Just SOLD 1/.3 of my position at $1.45 - that is a 202% Profit !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canaccord is Cheap versus Junior Gold mining, but not versus a bombed-out sector, Cannabis

Canadian broker Canaccord (C$) vs- GDXJ, Junior Gold Miners (US$)

CF vs-GDXJ, YRI.t, VIT.t ... update : Last: C$4.84/ GDXJ: $41.91 = r-11.55%

(Emphasizing Cycle of 5-7 months, last bottomed: end Nov.2019)

eMf1oWo.gif

Ratio:

jHlYIwe.png

Canaccord vs- a "Cannabis cluster" of stocks

CF vs-MJ, WEED.t, FIRE.t ... update : Last: C$4.84/ MJ: $16.73 = r-28.9%

H5fsLBN.gif

Ratio: C$4.84/ MJ: $16.73 = r-28.9%

GhMfrB1.png

===

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...