DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2019 Trading - v.131

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 131th Month = almost 11 years.

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)



Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Featured Video

Kyle Bass: "China: The Most Reckless Financial Experiment In History"

 

===============

DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2019 Trading - v.131

FRT/ Fed Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : GLD-SPY : FRTw/SLV : vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:  Gold-in-EUR>: Gold-in-USD>

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR: Eur 1,340 : $1,477 / $1.102

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

 

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE : w/OIH :

COMMS / Gold leading Commodity bounce-back?: Copper. XLE-Oil, FCX, DBA

USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d :

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY DATA

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l

2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
Mar
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
29: 293.87 +0.46: 57.2M: 13.11 : 20.84 - 0.46: 120.83 - 0.54 4.47M: 1281.4 $63.50 : $97.86 - 0.15: 123.02 - 0.19/ 00, 071: 000, 640
30: 294.02 +0.15: 00.0M: 13.12 : 20.89 +0.05: 121.20 +0.37 0.00M: 1286.7 $63.91 : $97.53 - 0.33: 123.65 +0.63/ 00, 074: 000, 680
MAY
30: 279.03 +0.76: 82.1M: 17.30 : 20.77+0.45 : 121.69 +0.82 7.76M: 1292.4 $56.59: $98.17 +0.03: 130.20 +1.11/ 00, 092: 000, 1000
31: 275.27 - 3.76: 86.9M: 18.71 : 21.59 +0.82 : 123.33 +1.64 15.4M: 1311.1 $53.50: $97.61 -0.56: 131.83 +1.63/ 02, 094: 047, 1047

June
26: 290.47 - 0.29: 51.6M: 16.21: 25.52 -0.11: 132.97 - 1.23 12.0M: 1000.0 $00.00: $96.27 - 0.02: 131.97 -0.85/
27:  291.50 +1.03 00.0M: 15.82:
28: 293.00 +1.50: 59.4M: 15.08: 25.56 +0.00: 133.20 -0.00 00.0M: 1000.0 $00.00:  $96.20 -0.00: 132.55 +0.00/ 00,060: 000, 720
July
29: 301.46 - 0.55: 38.1M: 12.83: 27.77 +0.49: 134.53 +0.89 9.16M: 1420.0 $00.00: $98.05 +0.00: 131.51 +0.00/
30: 300.72 - 0.74: 45.8M: 13.94: 27.83 +0.06: 134.98 +0.45 9.45M: 1442.0 $00.00: $98.06 +0.01: 131.83 +0.32/
31: 297.43 - 3.29: 104.M: 16.12 : 26.50 - 1.33: 133.21 - 1.77 18.8M: 1437.8 $58.58: $98.82 +0.76: 132.89 +1.06/

AUG
29: 292.58 +3.69: 58.0M: 17.88 : 29.66 - 0.75: 144.12 - 1.04 14.8M: 1536.9 $56.71: $98.44 - 0.07: 147.24 - 0.56/ 00, 50: 000, 435
30: 292.45 - 0.13: 63.0M: 18.98 : 29.86 +0.20: 143.75 - 0.37 9.64M: 1529.4 $55.10: $98.81 +0.47: 147.28 +0.04/
SEP
26: 297.00 - 0.62: 58.7M: 16.07 : 28.11 - 0.32: 141.79 - 0.04 8.80M: 1510.0 $56.52: 4.79=11.80 $99.13 +0.12: 142.38 +0.91/
27: 295.40 - 1.60: 84.8M: 17.22 : 27.45 - 0.66: 141.06 - 0.73 9.67M: 1502.3 $55.85: 4.79=11.66  $99.12 -0.01: 142.73 +0.35/
30: 296.77 +1.37: 52.6M: 16.24 : 26.71 - 0.74: 138.87 - 2.29 15.5M: 1479.0 $54.32: 4.79=11.34 $99.38 +0.26: 143.08 +0.00/
OCT
27: 315.48 +1.40: 44.8M: 11.75 : 26.66 - 0.12: 137.01 -0.73 4.11M: 1460.8 $58.11: 4.787=12.14 $98.34 - 0.07: 140.72 - 0.41/
28: Holiday.. with 1/2 day on Friday
29: 314.31 - 1.17: 36.6M: 12.67 : 27.08 +0.43: 137.86 +0.85 4.52M: 1472.7 $55.17: 4.748=11.62 $98.27 - 0.07: 140.42 - 0.30/
DEC
02: 311.64 - 2.67: 76.1M: 14.91 : 27.17 +0.09: 137.79 - 0.07 8.28M: 1469.2 $55.96: 4.795=11.67 97.91 - 0.36: 138.31 - 2.11/
03: 309.55 - 2.09: 75.0M: 15.96 : 27.77 +0.60: 139.11 +1.32 8.50M: 1484.2 $56.10: 4.770=11.76 97.73 - 0.18: 141.21 +2.90/
04: 311.46 +1.91: 49.2M: 14.80 : 27.48 - 0.29: 138.92 - 0.19 6.33M: 1000.0 $58.50: 4.80E=12.19 97.65 - 0.08: 139.80 -  1.41/
05: 312.02 +0.56: 00.0M: 14.52 : 27.62 - 0.00: 139.00 +0.08 0.00M: 1473.1 $58.43: 4.793=12.19 97.41 - 0.24: 139.12 + 0.32/
06: 314.87 +2.85: 49.0M: 13.92 : 26.97 - 0.65: 137.62 - 1.38 8.75M: 1465.1 $59.20: 4.805=12.32 97.68 +0.27: 138.35 -  0.77/
09: 313.88 - 0.99: 34.8M: 15.86 : 26.92 - 0.05: 137.58 - 0.04 2.70M: 1464.9 $59.02: 4.787=12.33 97.61 -0.07: 138.65 +0.30/
10: 313.53 - 0.35: 53.0M: 15.68 : 27.13 +0.21: 137.97 +0.39 3.24M: 1468.1 $59.24: 4.781=12.39 97.55 - 0.06: 138.66 +0.01/
11: 314.42 +0.89: 53.5M: 14.99: 27.71 +0.57: 138.92 +0.95 6.11M: 1498.E $58.91: 4.79E=12.30 97.41 - 0.14: 139.75 +1.09/
12: 317.13 +2.71: 96.6M: 13.94 : 27.66 - 0.05: 138.43 - 1.49 8.82M: 1472.3 $59.18: 4.784=12.37 97.40 +0.00: 137.45 - 0.30/
13: 317.32 +0.19: 81.5M: 12.63 : 27.72 +0.06: 139.05 +0.62 6.98M: 1481.2 $60.07: 4.809 12.49 97.18 - 0.22: 139.04 +1.59/
16: 319.50 +2.18: 82.8M: 12.14 : 27.39 -0.33: 139.04 - 0.01 4.65M: 1480.5 $60.21: 4.782=12.59 97.08 - 0.10: 137.79 - 1.25/
17: 319/57 +0.07: 61.1M: 12.29 : 27.16 - 0.23: 139.01 - 0.03 4.29M: 1480.6 $60.87: 4.785=12.72 97.28 +0.20: 137.60 - 0.19/
18: 319.59 +0.02: 48.2M: 12.58 : 27.45 +0.29: 139.02 +0.01 3.61M: 1478.7 $60.85: 4.776=12.74 97.34 +0.08: 136.47 - 1.13/
19: 320.90 +1.31: 85.4M: 12.50 : 27.48 +0.03: 139.38 +0.36 4.98M: 1484.4 $61.18: 4.787=12.78 97.43 +0.09: 136.47 +0.22/
20: 320.73 +1.40: 149.M: 12.51 : 27.13 - 0.35: 139.52 +0.14 4.48M: 1480.9 $60.44: 4.785=12.63 97.68 +0.30: 136.65 +0.18/
23: 321.22 +0.49: 53.0M: 12.61 : 27.77 +0.64: 139.95 +0.43 5.18M: 1487.E $60.70: 4.78E=12.70 97.66 - 0.02: 136.45 - 0.20/
24: 321.23 - 0.01: 20.3M: 12.67 : 28.66 +0.89: 141.27 +1.32 5.30M: 1500.E $61.04: 4.78E=12.77 97.65 - 0.01: 136.84 +0.39/
26: 322.94 +1.71: 31.0M: 12.65 : 29.08 +0.38: 142.38 +1.11 8.34M: 1512.E $61.61: 4.78E=12.89 97.53 - 0.12: 137.17 +0.33/
27: 322.86 - 0.08: 42.6M: 13.43 : 28.87 - 0.21: 142.33 - 0.05 5.12M: 1512.E $61.71: 4.78E=12.91 96.92 - 0.61: 137.32 +0.15/
30: 321.08 - 1.78: 49.8M: 14.82 : 29.49 +0.62: 142.63 +0.30 4.81M: 1515.E $61.61: 4.78E=12.89 96.74 -0.18: 136.82 - 0.50/
31: 321.86 +0.78: 57.1M: 13.78 : 29.28 - 0.21: 142.90 +0.27 5.31M: 1523.1 $61.06: 4.767=12.81 96.84 +0.00: 135.48 - 1.34/
02: 324.87 +3.01: 59.3M: 12.47 : 29.35 +0.07: 143.95 +1.05 7.74M: 1528.1 $61.18: 4.776=12.81 96.73 - 0.11: 137.02 +1.54/
===

[drbubb]

Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Some months ago, with Gold stabilizing, I wrote:

"Many Gold shares are COILED & Ready to spring - if the Dollar slides below $97"

But the USD is still over $97, while Gold has jumped over $1300 again. This looks good

Gold's high for the year was $1566 (early Sep.), though DXY has held up.

  : :

USD Index/DXY $97.77 +0.03 : Gold : $1482.50 +5.20 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : 2yr : DXY: $97.67, EUR: $1.109, GBP: $1.304, CAD: $0.753, AUD: $0.682, PHP: 51.04 (12/4/19)

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba : GDXJ: $29.53 +1.03 , OIH: $13.08 -0.36, USO: $11.10 -0.66

FXFX : 2017-mid'19 :

Gr #1, JNUG, etc: 6mo : 10d : old chart : JNUG ($104), UGLD ($158), GDXJ ($39.52)  - > shows High of Year

Gr # 2: GCM etc: update : GCM.t ($5.91), CCO.t ($13.64 -12.3%), MUX.t ($1.82 -9.91%)

Gr #3: OIH-etc ... update: LOW-of-Yr.: OIH ($10.76) vs. VAL ($3.42), HAL ($16.97), MDR ($0.53)

==

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

=== 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 : 

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos



KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs :&nbs

[drbubb]

SPY... 2015-2019: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep .7, +Dec.3, /
2018 : -Jan.4, +Jan.17
2019 : +Jan.18, +Apr.17, -May29, -Aug28, +Oct.9, -Dec3 



Model dates: 2019 : 2018 : 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2019 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2019 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

Edited November 8 by drbubb

 

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Posted November 8

MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !



3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) :  PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

 

 

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Posted November 8 (edited)

Gas down, Oil down... OIH making new lows (AGAIN! early Aug.)



WTI crude

OIH / Oil Service

 

"Oil Service stocks are still under pressure" - I said May 2nd

HAL, etc ... update : 10d / Last: $21?

Sym. 31may: 01may: -Chg. -Pct%: PER : Yield :
HAL: $21.29: $27.59 -6.30 -22.8%:10.6: 3.38%
SLB:  $34.69: $41.37 -6.68, -16.1%: 23.8: 5.77%
Bhge $21.41: $23.55 -2.14, -9.09%: 66.9: 3.36%
OIH : $13.08: $16.14 -3.06, -19.0%: N/ A: 2.29%
XLE : $58.77: $64.79 -6.02. -9.29%: N/ A: 3.52%
CNQ: $26.99: $28.94 -1.95, -6.74%: 14.5: 4.13%
CHK: $ 1.92 : $ 2.83 -0.91, -32.2%: 4.43: 0.00%
SWN: $ 3.52 : $  3.87 -0.25, -6.46%: 2.14: 0.00%
USO: $11.10 : $13.22 -2.12, -16.0%: ==
WTI: $53.50: $63.60 -10.1,-15.9%: ==
NGas $ 2.45: $2.62: - 0.17, -6.49%:
NG/wt r-4.6%: r-4.1%: :

Ratio: NatGas to-WTI Crude - @ r-4.12% - Buy NatGas versus Oil?



==

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !



3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) :  PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

 

[drbubb]

Gas down, Oil down... OIH making new lows (AGAIN! early Aug.)



WTI crude

OIH / Oil Service

 

"Oil Service stocks are still under pressure" - I said May 2nd

HAL, etc ... update : 10d / Last: $21?

Sym. 31may: 01may: -Chg. -Pct%: PER : Yield :
HAL: $21.29: $27.59 -6.30 -22.8%:10.6: 3.38%
SLB:  $34.69: $41.37 -6.68, -16.1%: 23.8: 5.77%
Bhge $21.41: $23.55 -2.14, -9.09%: 66.9: 3.36%
OIH : $13.08: $16.14 -3.06, -19.0%: N/ A: 2.29%
XLE : $58.77: $64.79 -6.02. -9.29%: N/ A: 3.52%
CNQ: $26.99: $28.94 -1.95, -6.74%: 14.5: 4.13%
CHK: $ 1.92 : $ 2.83 -0.91, -32.2%: 4.43: 0.00%
SWN: $ 3.52 : $  3.87 -0.25, -6.46%: 2.14: 0.00%
USO: $11.10 : $13.22 -2.12, -16.0%: ==
WTI: $53.50: $63.60 -10.1,-15.9%: ==
NGas $ 2.45: $2.62: - 0.17, -6.49%:
NG/wt r-4.6%: r-4.1%: :

Ratio: NatGas to-WTI Crude - @ r-4.12% - Buy NatGas versus Oil?



==

[drbubb]

Hang Lung: The Price GAP narrows AGAIN, as higher yielding HK101 outperforms HK10 >

Reaching *nearly* Yield Parity.

HK101/ HLP vs HK10 / HLG ... update : 10d. w/Hk2823 : $17.66 +0.44 > $21.50 +0.15, Gap: $2.84 / Ratio: 82.1%



Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / HK2823: ratio / Dv.80 : Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r208.%/ =========== /  80cts. 75cts. 5cents: R-div. :
Earns/sh.: $ 3.88 : $ 1.80 : $2.08: r216.%/
Dividends: $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05: r107.%/
09/03/19: $20.20: $18.88: $1.32: r107.%/ $14.68: r-138%/ . 3.96% 3.97%: 0.01%:  r99.7%:
08/30/19: $19.48: $17.72: $1.76: r110.%/ $14.52: r-134%/   4.11% 4.23%: 0.12%:   r97.2%:
06/28/19: $21.65: $18.58: $3.07: r117.%/ $14.94: r-145.%/  3.70% 4.04%: 0.34%:  r91.6%:
03/29/19: $25.20: $19.16: $7.02: r117.%/ $14.58: r-173.%/  3.17% 3.91%: 0.74%:  r81.1%:
12/31/18 : $19.94: $14.92: $5.02: r134.%/ $11.40: r-175.%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
12/29/17 : $28.75: $19.10: $9.66: r151.%/ $15.02: r-191.%/  2.78% 3.93%: 1.15%: r70.7%:
—————

 Wow!

The pricing gap has now narrowed so much that both stocks have (almost) the same yield.

Meantime, HK10 has about 108% more asset backing than HK101.

A pairs trade : Long HK10 / Short HK101, may be virtually risk-free, apart from (important) liquidity & borrowing issues

[drbubb]

Oil prices are near their L.T. Low versus Gold : USO-$11.88 / GLD-$138.27: r-8.59% vs. 7.5% LT Low

USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d :



Edited November 8 by drbubb

 

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Posted November 8 (edited)

Oil prices are near their L.T. Low versus Gold : USO-$11.88 / GLD-$138.27: r-8.59% vs. 7.5% LT Low

USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d :

/ 2 /

ALL E : 12mo : fm. Apr.2018 : 10d /

> See: ALL ENERGY thread

[drbubb]

Oil prices are near their L.T. Low versus Gold : USO-$11.88 / GLD-$138.27: r-8.59% vs. 7.5% LT Low

USO - vs GLD, Ngas, Oilb .... fr. Feb.2009 : 2.17.16 : 9/2017 : end2018 : 10d :

/ 2 /

ALL E : 12mo : fm. Apr.2018 : 10d /

> See: ALL ENERGY thread

[drbubb]

(Looking back to FRIDAY's ACTION):

Both NATGAS & OIL were very weak yesterday, 5-9%

Natgas—- :  $ 2.28 - 0.22, - 8.80%

dd
WTI Crude : $55.17 - 2.94, - 5.06%

dd

Ratio : 4.13% - 3.94% = Natgas weaker than weak oil

Why Did Oil Prices Plunge This Black Friday? Angry Bear (Weblog)

Falling Oil Prices are Tip of Iceberg as Protests Sweep Across Iraq, Analysts Claim Sputnik

. . .

« Back

[drbubb]

Gold's EWave count... from a Bull

James McKee says:

December 3, 2019 at 4:04 pm

Interesting on GLD daily chart. Not necessarily EW, but check out Wave 2 and Wave 4 duration (so far)–nearly identical.
Also, fib retraces are interesting.
Wave 2 = 0.5 * Wave 1
Wave 4 = 0.38 * Wave 3 and 0.5 * Wave 3 extension as of yesterday,
Ignore wave 5 landing area, though I believe it’s been said Wave 5 in commodities is often the longest.

[drbubb]

GOLD BREAKOUT ?

(Question: Why is Silver lagging?)

Dear Reader, Here is a new podcast on the consolidation in gold, why it may soon end and why we could see a new breakout.    CLICK HERE for the podcast.  We will have more in the coming days as well. David Skarica BOX 25517 Gregory Town, Bahamas

[drbubb]

We're in the midst of the longest bull run for stocks without a major drop on record.

By: alexmark

 

(HELPING this along is this... Very low rates):

Negative Rates Are Starting to Worry ECB Officials...

"Floodgates Are Open": German Banks Start Charging Retail Savers

By: alexmark

[drbubb]

NOW 52% !  Take THAT, Peloser !

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-seven percent (47%) disapprove.

The latest figures include 38% who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove.

> http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_dec05

The B/tty and the HOAX-peachment are in trouble !

[drbubb]

Malaysian Ringgit

MYR ... 3yr / last; USD in MYR 4.1625. 

[drbubb]

ALERT! Banks Collapsing & Bank Runs! China’s About To Make It All Come Crashing Down!

/ 2 /

Not Just Deutsche Bank! Germany Heading To Economic Collapse & Stock Market CRASH

December 5, 2019

  Shocking video about the economic collapse of Germany and Deutsche Bank Collapse! Germany’s economic indicators across the board are shrinking. And with Merkel masking a massive tax raise as … Read more

[drbubb]

HOUSING / GOLD CYCLE  - will update the chart above with this

PHM vs GLD & TLT ... fr. 2009 : 5yr: 3yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/ PHM:$40.20 / GLD:$139.00, TLT:$139.12. Ratio: 28.9%

RATIO: 28.9% / / PHM:$40.20 / GLD:$139.00

==

[drbubb]

STOCKS : 3,145.91 +0.91%

FED PUMPS $4 TRILLION INTO MARKETS...

JOBS GROWTH SOARS
RECORD WORKING
UNEMPLOYMENT 50-YEAR LOW

[drbubb]

Dem Impeachment Disaster Continues, IG Report Drops Bombs, Banks Buying Gold

/ 2 /

The Market is BROKEN. Can QE4 Prevent the Global Economic Collapse?

December 5, 2019 by IWB

Do you think that the stock market would crash overnight if the Fed said no more QE, and reduction of the balance is coming? If so, what does that tell us about the underlying issues?

If the central banks intervene in the markets, the expectation is that this is forever. There was never any indication that this could be stopped but the admission was always that it’s needed right now so let’s worry about that stuff later. QE is unsustainable and its behaviour is erratic and impossible to control. This was a lesson these countries didn’t need to learn because we’ve seen the effects throughout history. But of course, those who dig deep into the information know why central banks would still persist, full speed ahead.

[drbubb]

FED PUMPS ANOTHER $70 BILLION...
Cause of cash crunch remains mystery...

[drbubb]

Central banks worldwide buying up massive amounts of gold in a shift away from US dollar – Goldman Sachs

December 10, 2019

Gold prices will climb to $1,600 per ounce over the next year, Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs projects. It says that central banks are consuming a fifth of the global supply of the yellow metal.

“De-dollarization in central banks – demand from central banks for gold is biggest since the Nixon era, eating up 20 percent of global supply,” the head of global commodities research at Goldman, Jeff Currie, told Bloomberg. “I am going to like gold better than bonds because the bonds won’t reflect that de-dollarization.”

Citing “fear-driven demand” for the precious metal, Goldman analysts said last week that investors should diversify their long-term bond holdings with gold.

[drbubb]

Greta may have a tough 2020

Trump Jr: TIME Magazine Picks ‘Marketing Gimmick’ Greta Over Hong Kong Protesters For ‘Person of the Year’

So PC, and so Globalist !  I am disgusted!

So young, so angry... so Brainwashed !

[drbubb]

HUH?

How's that again?

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet shows that in September, the Fed decided to re-elect Trump…

and the money pumping began in earnest

[drbubb]

"EASILY OVER $1500". ($1550 Target)

Are too many bullish on Gold?

WFC anaylst thinks: "lower interest rates will propel gold higher,"

... "And maybe... China is buying gold"

Why gold and oil will be the real winners of 2020 - Wells Fargo

/ 2 /

A greater depression and a civil war?

Things to get uglier and very serious in 2020 warns Doug Casey

"the prospect of a Civil War sounds crazy... but the divided parts of America seem to hate each other."

"the pieces are on like different planets... I can see the country breaking up"

[drbubb]

Top 5 Candidates for the Gold & Silver Stock of 2020 - Jeff Clark

Dr. Bill 1 week ago

Absolutely stunning video . I have extra money to invest in January. I’ll mix and match . Thanks so much you taught me a lot. I have a friend who has over 100,000 shares and I hope it goes up 100 fold .because he was an engineer for decades and a great man .

PGM.t . Pure Gold ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: C$0.71 . Yr.L>H: $0.49-0.81

GOLD.t / Gold Mining ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: C$1.24 / YrL>H: $0.71-1.44 - No debt, $7M cash > C$475M target

SILV / Silvercrest Metals ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: C$6.32 / YrL>H: $2.25-6.69 - already tripled !

MAG.t / MAG Silver ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: C$14.13 / YrL>H: $8.98-8.60 - In the sweet spot

FR.t / First Majestic Silver ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: C$14.14 / YrL>H: $6.67-15.50

REN / Renaissance Gold ... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr / Last: C$0.33 / YrL>H: $0.15-0.425

==

[drbubb]

BULLISH ON OIL...

(could be great timing, since we are now in Tax Selling season)

Mark Gordon / with Keith McCullough of HedgeEye

Mark Gordon: Unprecedented Opportunity in Oil Markets

/ 2 /

Mark Gordon: Why the age of oil abundance is about to end.

Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Mark Gordon to MacroVoices. They discuss why inventory is not what drives the price, the regime change from the age of peak oil to the age of oil abundance and possible impacts the recession will have on oil prices and more.

==

[drbubb]

The U.S. and China May Actually Have an Interim Trade Deal. Get Ready for a Market Rally. Barron's Online