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DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2019 Trading - v.129

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Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 128th Month = Over 10 years.

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)

GjtfFlk.jpg

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Featured Video (coming)

================

DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2019 Trading - v.129

FRT/ Fed Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : GLD-SPY : FRTw/SLV : vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

C2bG0m0.gif

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:  Gold-in-EURtny_au_en_euoz_2.gif: Gold-in-USD tny_au_en_usoz_2.gif

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

XMoTw3m.png

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

WwD9kqI.png

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE : w/OIH :

Oil or Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

TGHRdh3.gif

: w/OIH :

fW0LMcY.gif

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

el7816f.gif

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

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Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l

2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
Mar
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
29: 293.87 +0.46: 57.2M: 13.11 : 20.84 - 0.46: 120.83 - 0.54 4.47M: 1281.4 $63.50 : $97.86 - 0.15: 123.02 - 0.19/ 00, 071: 000, 640
30: 294.02 +0.15: 00.0M: 13.12 : 20.89 +0.05: 121.20 +0.37 0.00M: 1286.7 $63.91 : $97.53 - 0.33: 123.65 +0.63/ 00, 074: 000, 680
MAY
30: 279.03 +0.76: 82.1M: 17.30 : 20.77+0.45 : 121.69 +0.82 7.76M: 1292.4 $56.59: $98.17 +0.03: 130.20 +1.11/ 00, 092: 000, 1000
31: 275.27 - 3.76: 86.9M: 18.71 : 21.59 +0.82 : 123.33 +1.64 15.4M: 1311.1 $53.50: $97.61 -0.56: 131.83 +1.63/ 02, 094: 047, 1047

June
26: 290.47 - 0.29: 51.6M: 16.21: 25.52 -0.11: 132.97 - 1.23 12.0M: 1000.0 $00.00: $96.27 - 0.02: 131.97 -0.85/
27:  291.50 +1.03 00.0M: 15.82:
28: 293.00 +1.50: 59.4M: 15.08: 25.56 +0.00: 133.20 -0.00 00.0M: 1000.0 $00.00:  $96.20 -0.00: 132.55 +0.00/ 00,060: 000, 720
July
29: 301.46 - 0.55: 38.1M: 12.83: 27.77 +0.49: 134.53 +0.89 9.16M: 1420.0 $00.00: $98.05 +0.00: 131.51 +0.00/
30: 300.72 - 0.74: 45.8M: 13.94: 27.83 +0.06: 134.98 +0.45 9.45M: 1442.0 $00.00: $98.06 +0.01: 131.83 +0.32/
31: 297.43 - 3.29: 104.M: 16.12 : 26.50 - 1.33: 133.21 - 1.77 18.8M: 1437.8 $58.58: $98.82 +0.76: 132.89 +1.06/

AUG
29: 292.58 +3.69: 58.0M: 17.88 : 29.66 - 0.75: 144.12 - 1.04 14.8M: 1536.9 $56.71: $98.44 - 0.07: 147.24 - 0.56/ 00, 50: 000, 435
30: 292.45 - 0.13: 63.0M: 18.98 : 29.86 +0.20: 143.75 - 0.37 9.64M: 1529.4 $55.10: $98.81 +0.47: 147.28 +0.04/
SEP
26: 297.00 - 0.62: 58.7M: 16.07 : 28.11 - 0.32: 141.79 - 0.04 8.80M: 1510.0 $56.52: 4.79=11.80 $99.13 +0.12: 142.38 +0.91/
27: 295.40 - 1.60: 84.8M: 17.22 : 27.45 - 0.66: 141.06 - 0.73 9.67M: 1502.3 $55.85: 4.79=11.66  $99.12 -0.01: 142.73 +0.35/
30: 296.77 +1.37: 52.6M: 16.24 : 26.71 - 0.74: 138.87 - 2.29 15.5M: 1479.0 $54.32: 4.79=11.34 $99.38 +0.26: 143.08 +0.00/
OCT
01: 293.24 - 3.53: 89.9M: 18.56 : 26.92 +0.21: 139.63 +0.76 00.0M: 1489.0 $53.60:4.79=11.19  $99.02 - 0.36: 143.36 +0.28/0.28/
02: 288.06 - 5.18: 125.M: 20.56 : 27.41 +0.49: 141.26 +1.63 11.9M: 1507.9 $52.59: 4.79E=10.98 $99.03 +0.01: 143.61 +0.35/
03: 290.83 +2.77: 00.0M: 19.12 : 27.05 - 0.36: 141.90 +0.64 12.4M: 1511.2 $52.35: 4.79E=10.93
04: 294.35 +3.52: 66.7M: 17.04 : 27.87 +0.82: 141.90 +0.00 9.69M: 1511.2 $52.88: 4.79E=11.04
07: 293.08 - 1.27: 00.0M: 17.86 : 27.49 - 0.38: 140.69 - 1.21 6.16M: 1504.4 $52.75: 4.778=11.04 $98.76 +0.00: 144.78 +0.00/
08: 288.53 - 4.55: 101.M: 20.28 : 28.36 +0.87: 141.92 +1.23 10.5M: 1503.9 $52.63: 4.833=10.89 $98.82 +0.16: 145.17 +0.39/
09: 291.27 +2.74: 65.7M: 18.64 : 28.05 - 0.31: 142.05 +0.13 7.05M: 1512.8 $52.59: 4.785=10.99 $99.01 +0.19: 144.35 - 0.82/
10: 293.24 +1.97: 57.3M: 17.57 : 28.05 +0.00: 140.81 - 1.24 9.33M: 1500.9 $53.60: 4.79E=11.19 $98.79 - 0.22: 142.20 - 2.15/
11: 296.28 +3.04: 101.M: 15.58 : 26.97 - 1.08: 140.03 - 0.78 11.4M: 1488.7 $54.70: 4.79E=11.42 $98.33 - 0.37: 140.44 - 1.76/
14: 295.95 - 0.33: 40.5M: 14.57 : 27.07 +0.10: 140.45 +0.42 4.01M: 1492.E $52.97: 4.79E=11.06 $98.45 +0.12: 141.46 +1.02/
15: 298.88 +0.00: 47.8M: 13.54 : 26.19 - 0.88: 139.61 - 0.84 9.13M: 1483.5 $52.81: 4.775=11.06 $98.00 -0.45: 139.75 +0.00/
16: 298.40 - 0.48: 50.6M: 13.68 : 26.71 +0.52: 140.41 +0.80 10.4M: 1494.0 $53.56: 4.808=11.14 $97.99 - 0.01: 139.92 +0.17/
===

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Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

A month ago, I said:

"Many Gold shares are COILED & Ready to spring - if the Dollar slides below $97"

But the USD is still over $97, while Gold has jumped over $1300 again. This looks good

idx24_usd_en_2.gif  : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : 2yr : DXY: $97.61+1.44, EUR: $1.1200 -0.027, GBP: $1.264, CAD: $0.738, AUD: $0.694, PHP: 52.15 (from last mo.)

5nh96TC.gif

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba : GDXJ: $29.53 +1.03 , OIH: $13.08 -0.36, USO: $11.10 -0.66

0hjPbHr.gif

FXFX : 2017-mid'19 :

oPsDXSA.gif

Group #1 : update : old chartJNUG ($7.55 -22.6%), UGLD ($96.39 +1.84%), GDXJ ($29.53 -7.11%) - from last month

LQnx6Cw.gif

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.49 -0.85%), CCO.t ($13.64 -12.3%), MUX.t ($1.82 -9.91%)

ZWEPhpH.gif

OIH ($13.08 -27.3%) vs. Drillers: HAL ($21.29 -31.3%), MDR ($6.04 -27.8%), ESV ($8.37 -48.1%)

d1FDdaC.gif

 

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Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

=== 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 : 

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

nVzEZ3p.gif

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

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All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

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SPX ... 10-yr

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.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

jdfaUBq.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

sWEYfy8.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

rpAk3nN.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

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.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

3exBC6r.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

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.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

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.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

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China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

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===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new, 

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BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2019: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep .7, +Dec.3, /
2018 : -Jan.4, +Jan.17
2019 : +Jan.18, +Apr.17, -May29, -Aug28, +Oct.9, -Dec3 

bVz4z2b.gif

Model dates: 2019 : 2018 : 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :
2019-Bradley-Siderograph.png
===
Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2019 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

5hFlqdd.gif

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2019 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

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Gold-Bradley-Siderograph-2019-Turn-Dates

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !

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3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

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NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

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RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

utFi6fa.png

 

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Gas down, Oil down... OIH making new lows (AGAIN! early Aug.)

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WTI crude

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OIH / Oil Service

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"Oil Service stocks are still under pressure" - I said May 2nd

HAL, etc ... update : 10d / Last: $21?

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Sym. 31may: 01may: -Chg. -Pct%: PER : Yield :
HAL: $21.29: $27.59 -6.30 -22.8%:10.6: 3.38%
SLB:  $34.69: $41.37 -6.68, -16.1%: 23.8: 5.77%
Bhge $21.41: $23.55 -2.14, -9.09%: 66.9: 3.36%
OIH : $13.08: $16.14 -3.06, -19.0%: N/ A: 2.29%
XLE : $58.77: $64.79 -6.02. -9.29%: N/ A: 3.52%
CNQ: $26.99: $28.94 -1.95, -6.74%: 14.5: 4.13%
CHK: $ 1.92 : $ 2.83 -0.91, -32.2%: 4.43: 0.00%
SWN: $ 3.52 : $  3.87 -0.25, -6.46%: 2.14: 0.00%
USO: $11.10 : $13.22 -2.12, -16.0%: ==
WTI: $53.50: $63.60 -10.1,-15.9%: ==
NGas $ 2.45: $2.62: - 0.17, -6.49%:
NG/wt r-4.6%: r-4.1%: :

Ratio: NatGas to-WTI Crude - @ r-4.12% - Buy NatGas versus Oil?

IgoGQPR.png

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Hang Lung: The Price GAP narrows AGAIN, as higher yielding HK101 outperforms HK10 >

Reaching *nearly* Yield Parity.

HK101/ HLP vs HK10 / HLG ... update : 10d. w/Hk2823 : $17.66 +0.44 > $21.50 +0.15, Gap: $2.84 / Ratio: 82.1%

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Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / HK2823: ratio / Dv.80 : Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r208.%/ =========== /  80cts. 75cts. 5cents: R-div. :
Earns/sh.: $ 3.88 : $ 1.80 : $2.08: r216.%/
Dividends: $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05: r107.%/
09/03/19: $20.20: $18.88: $1.32: r107.%/ $14.68: r-138%/ . 3.96% 3.97%: 0.01%r99.7%:
08/30/19: $19.48: $17.72: $1.76: r110.%/ $14.52: r-134%/   4.11% 4.23%: 0.12%:   r97.2%:
06/28/19: $21.65: $18.58: $3.07: r117.%/ $14.94: r-145.%/  3.70% 4.04%: 0.34%:  r91.6%:
03/29/19: $25.20: $19.16: $7.02: r117.%/ $14.58: r-173.%/  3.17% 3.91%: 0.74%:  r81.1%:
12/31/18 : $19.94: $14.92: $5.02: r134.%/ $11.40: r-175.%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
12/29/17 : $28.75: $19.10: $9.66: r151.%/ $15.02: r-191.%/  2.78% 3.93%: 1.15%: r70.7%:
—————

 Wow!

The pricing gap has now narrowed so much that both stocks have (almost) the same yield.

Meantime, HK10 has about 108% more asset backing than HK101.

A pairs trade : Long HK10 / Short HK101, may be virtually risk-free, apart from (important) liquidity & borrowing issues

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Are we now seeing a Rollover in the Philippines Stock Exchange Index / PSEI?

- Off the Right Shoulder? (near 8500, vs. 9,000 peak)

If US stocks continue to slide, the PSEI could go into free fall. Key support levels may be tested soon,

PSEI : 7,525 -85, -1.1% (After Last night's SPX: 2,887.71. -52.64, -1.79%)

PSEI ... 10-years : vs-SPY / 5-yr: 2-yr: 6mo /10d: w/other / Last: 7,525.41 -85.27 Mid-Day

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: vs-SPY /

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THE GAP of AGI to the PSEI has become very big.  Time to Buy AGI as a proxy for the PSEI?

PSEI vs- AGI, MEG ... 10-yr: 5-yr / 2-yr fr.10/1/2017 : 6mo /10d - Last

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TIMING—: -PSEI : -AGI : MEG : Shng/ Agi/P: Meg/P: Meg/A: Shng/
YrE-2013 : 5,890 : 25.80 : 3.24 : 3.27 / 43.8%: 5.50%: 12.6% / 5.55%
YrE-2014 : 7,231 : 22.55 : 4.88 : 3.30 / 31.2%: 6.75%: 21.6% / 4.56%
YrE-2015 : 6,952 : 16.10 : 4.25 : 3.13 / 23.2% : 6.11%: 26.4% / 4.50%
YrE-2016 : 6,841 : 12.78 : 3.57 : 3.27 / 18.7% : 5.22%: 27.9% / 4.78%
YrE-2017 : 8,558 : 16.00 : 5.16 : 3.13 / 18.7% : 6.03%: 32.3% / 3.66%
YrE-2018 : 7,466 : 11.90 : 4.75 : 3.12 / 15.9% : 6.36%: 39.9% / 4.18%
01-29-18 : 9,059 : 15.50 : 5.06 : 3.24 / 17.6% : 5.59%: 32.6% / 3.57%
11-13-18 : 6,844 : 10.50 : 4.50 : 3.12 / 15.3% : 6.58%: 42.9% / 4.56%
09-15-19 : 7,997 : 12.76 : 5.18 : 3.36 / 16.0% : 6.48%: 40.6% / 4.20%
10/3 mid.: 7,522: 10.58 : 4.40 : 3.29/ 14.1%  5.85% : 41.6% / 4.37%
=======

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Relative Weakness of Coal (& BTU) shown here

All Energy ... 12mos /

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Comparison back to mid-2017 - shows similarity of Recent path of Natgas & BTU ...

All-E ... since mid-2017 - Shows Two Tiers: upper tier: U & Oil / lower tier: Natgas & BTU/Coal

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Natgas plays (RRC & SWN) vs. All-E's "lower tier" ... since mid-2017 : 10d/ Last: RRC:$3.62 , SWN:$1.82

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: 10d/ Last: RRC:$3.62 , SWN:$1.82

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==

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Global Equities Relief-Rally Led To Asia Pacific REITs’ Underperformance In September

REITs could see support in October on expectations for cuts in interest rate.

Global capital markets cheered after the U.S. Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) and trade talks between China and the U.S. showed signs of progress. The MSCI World rose 2% for the month on the back of improved market sentiment.

For the Asia Pacific region, the GPR/APREA Investable REIT Index reported a 0.6% increase in September versus MSCI AC Asia Pacific’s 2.7% gain over the same period. The marginal rise in the REIT Index reflected the risk-on sentiment in the Asia Pacific markets. 

Australian REITs led the underperformance of regional REITs with a 2% drop during the month.  The MSCI Australia index was up 2%. This decline in the REIT index is a result of market concerns about Australia’s economic outlook and its impact on the local property market. 

REITs in Japan registered the best performance with a 2.9% increase. J-REITs, however, still underperformed the MSCI Japan, which rose 4.2% during the same period.

Despite the September rebound, concerns about the global economic outlook have re-surfaced after worse-than-expected U.S. PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) data released on October 1. The market largely expected governments to keep interest rates low. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently cut its interest rate by 25 bps cut to a record low of 0.75%. 

Thus, we expect Asia Pacific REITs’ outperformance to return in October on the back of concerns over the global economic outlook and lower interest rate expectations.

Screen-Shot-2019-10-03-at-4.46.16-PM.png

Based on market close at September 30, 2019 / All performance numbers are based on total gross returns in USD

Sources: GPR and Bloomberg

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On Sep.6th, I asked...

BONDS n'Gold rose together ... Will they now slide together?

Perhaps an obvious Right Shoulder will get formed first (if this is a Head)

TLT vs-GLD .. fr.Oct.2018 : ? / Last: $144.76 -1.8% / $143.14 -2.2% = Ratio: 101.3%

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Maybe long term rates have dropped far enough... Perhaps the big move down in rates will cancel the recession.

UPDATE,  after a dip from above $148 to: $137 / -7.5%

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RATIO : "Normal range" seems to be 100% +/- 2%
hUOlFMT.png

Thinking about Buying GLD, Selling TLT - to play the swings above

 

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Gold bounces Peter Hug

Investors following my diatribes for the past few weeks bombarded me with amazing emails when I turned negative the gold market at $1,560 and silver at $19.40.

The market seemed overbought and some macro issues had shifted. The European offer to accept a delay in Brexit took the British pound up 400 pips. The Fed meeting of September indicated a split in consensus, with the possibility of another imminent rate cut, off the table. Chinese trade negotiations were looking better.

So our call that the market was heavy was not met with great enthusiasm from investors, who were reading that gold at $2,000 and silver at $25 was imminent. However, today, has changed my paradigm.

From a technical perspective, the market looks bad, (I can’t use the word I wanted). The ISM index indicates the U.S. is following the global economies into a slowdown/recession and the Fed is likely to be more aggressive at future meetings.

Technically, I need gold above $1,497 to start and ideally through $1,520 again. I’m bullish gold, but not jumping up and down yet.

Gold-in-USD tny_au_en_usoz_2.gif: Got it ! (back above $1500)

Direction: Sell
Target Price / Range: $1,455 / Timeframe: 01-10-2019 to 4-10-2019

Gold prices continue to be driven by shorter term investor activity based on technical buying and selling. As gold prices broke below support levels over the past few days there was increased technical selling. Prices are now in a downward trend and could fall to test $1,450. A break below this level could quickly push gold prices to fall toward $1,420.

Gold is in a stable landscape Bill Baruch

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With each passing day, the chances of the United States entering a deep recession grows.

...

Fortunately, it appears that market participants regained some semblance of sanity as the week dragged on, with both gold and silver recovering much of their earlier week losses.

As it stands now, gold bullion has moved once again above $1500 USD per ounce, while silver bullion stands at $17.70 USD per ounce.

These are important levels to maintain and any protracted time spent below these levels could mean much lower prices; however, given the fundamentals, it seems unlikely that this will be the case.

Central bankers around the world are now fully aware that we are about to enter into a dragged out global recession as the trade wars continue to go on with no end in sight.

This means that interest rates around the world are going to be slashed by Central Bankers. Stimulus programs are going to once again be all the rage and the money printing is going to be happening at a feverish pace.

In addition to this, the Democratic Party in the United States seems hell bent on moving forward with impeachment proceedings against President Trump. A plan that appears to be pivotal in their 2020 election campaign strategy and nothing further, as it is incredibly unlikely that he will be impeached and removed from office.

Even if the House does vote to impeach, the Senate, which is controlled by Republicans, are not going to vote to remove him from office as two thirds must do so.

Unfortunately for the Democrats, I along with many others believe that this is going to backfire on them, as it is only going to embolden Republicans and result in a staggering high turnout for the President come 2020.

Regardless, uncertainty abounds and precious metals are going to take notice as this political theater continues to unfold.

People should not be selling gold and silver bullion as we saw earlier in this week, but in fact be buying it hand over fist in the coming climate.

Expect much higher prices as global risk grows and as QE to infinity goes worldwide.

Keep stacking. Focus on the long term. Ignore the short term noise.

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the SLIDE IN OIL may be ending

Oil-in-Gold may be ending an A-B-C correction

USO-to-Gold - near 7.5% support

tQESomp.png

Ratio: WTI-to-GOLD

Qh68lUf.png

==

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The developed world is on the brink of a financial, economic, social and political crisis

 

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According to the findings of a new Hill-HarrisX poll, a shocking 32 percent of black male voters would prefer to vote for Donald Trump over a generic Democrat opponent in the 2020 presidential election.

The Hill reported the data deceptively by claiming that an “overwhelming majority of black voters” would support a Democrat in 2020 over President Trump. The fake news did not mention Trump’s impressive support among black male voters in their report about the poll.

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Track RECORD of destroying Capital

Gold up 50%, but mid-tier Gold miners valuations are down

Why Gold Mining Companies Habitually Destroy Capital (w/ James Rasteh)

James Rasteh of Coast Capital Management is a deep-value investor who has turned his sights on the gold miners. He points out that these stocks have destroyed billions of dollars in capital, and have chronically underperformed the gold price, even during rallies. According to Rasteh, the managers are the problem, and yet they have paid themselves millions. He says it’s now time for a change. Filmed on September 11, 2018 in New York

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