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Oil's Instant Crisis, + $5-6 ... on Saudi Drone attack

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Oil's Instant Crisis, + $5-6... on Saudi Drone attack

How Much Will Oil Surge When Trading Reopens

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Consensus is for a $5-10/barrel spike, with some expecting Brent hitting as much as $80 tomorrow.

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Could Be "Weeks" Before Aramco Restores Full Production Capacity As Specter Of $100 Oil Looms

smoke%20abqaiq.jpg?itok=5WW39yNc

The 5.7 million barrels a day outage is the single worst supply disruption even over and against the first Gulf War and the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.

 

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Saudi Shuts Half Oil Output After Drone Strikes...
KINGDOM ROCKED...
Attack knocked out 5% of global supply...
Iran says ready for war after accusations...
Kuwait probes drone sighting...
Spectre of oil at $100/barrel...

* Traders, analysts expect oil to jump $5-10/barrel on Monday

* Longer-term prices depend on extent of damage

* Market has to price in big geopolitical risk

* Attacks could be repeated, will damage Aramco IPO plans
 

WSJ: This Is Big One...
Tense Gulf...

The technological sophistication and audacity of Saturday’s attack will linger over the energy market

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TILAK DOSHI, MUSE & STANCIL

"In the oil universe, this attack is perhaps equivalent to the 9/11 attacks ...

Abqaiq is easily the world's single most important oil production and processing infrastructure site."

GREG NEWMAN, CO-CEO OF ONYX COMMODITIES

Expects Brent futures to open $2 per barrel up and close $7 to $10 per barrel higher on Monday.

The market could see a return to $100 per barrel if the issue cannot be resolved in the short term.

In the swaps market, Dubai timespreads could see a $1.50-$2 barrel backwardation as end-users scramble to cover shorts for short-term loading.

Refined product prices will be strong, with particular emphasis on high-sulphur fuel oil given current tightness and that it is the refinery product most closely linked to Saudi heavy crude.

AYHAM KAMEL, EURASIA GROUP

"A small $2-$3 per barrel premium would emerge if the damage appears to be an issue that can be resolved quickly, and $10 if the damage to Aramco's facilities is significant."

"The scale of (the) attack will encourage markets to re-examine the need for considering an oil geopolitical risk premium ... The attacks could complicate Aramco's IPO plans given rising security risks and potential impact on its valuation."

"The U.S. would only release crude from its strategic reserves if damage to infrastructure appears critical or oil prices spike significantly."

SAMUEL CISZUK, FOUNDING PARTNER AT ELS ANALYSIS

"The outage of 5 million bpd (barrels per day), roughly half of the current Saudi production level and about 5% of global supply, is very large by historic standards. It would in relatively few weeks start to put a stress on the market."

"This incident is a very uncomfortable wake-up call to radically higher risk premiums on Gulf production."

CHRISTYAN MALEK, JP MORGAN

"I'd expect a $3-$5 move in oil prices in the short term. The market has been sleep-walking in risk premium in the region, disproportionately focusing on risk to demand growth and shale oil supply."

"This attack introduces a new, irreversible risk premium into the market."

Expects oil to rise to $80-90 a barrel over the next three-six months as the market turns its focus to geopolitics.

> http://news.trust.org/item/20190915103023-kawk0

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READY FOR ACTION ?

President Trump Signals Military Action Over Attack On Saudi Oil Sites: ‘Locked And Loaded’

President Donald Trump suggested on Sunday that the U.S. military could be used to respond to the terrorist attacks on oil sites in Saudi Arabia, for which U.S. officials say Iran was responsible.

"Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked," Trump tweeted. "There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!"

"Based on the attack on Saudi Arabia, which may have an impact on oil prices, I have authorized the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if needed, in a to-be-determined amount sufficient to keep the markets well-supplied," Trump said several minutes earlier. "I have also informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States."

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Thank God, Bolton is no longer at the table ('tho he may have called some shots on this)

Kellyanne Conway touts Trump admin after Bolton's departure

==

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Oil Shares Up Big & OIL UP MORE !

BP: +4%, Brent: +8%

BP Plc vs OILB/Brent ... 10day : 6mo / BP: 524.8P, +4.04%, OILB: 30.19, +8.38%

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: 6mo /

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BP plc - Last three years

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BP -to-WTI Crude

poGD3tg.png

==

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Coming War?

Saudi Arabia Oil Fields and the Iran Drone Attack EXPLAINED

Saudi Arabian oil refinery fields were hit with a drone attack over the weekend. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and President Trump say Iran is to blame. Now, oil production from Saudi Arabia -- and therefore supply around the world -- has decreased dramatically. Is a war between the two nations to come? What does this mean for Americans and oil prices moving forward? And what does Jamal Khashoggi have to do with it all? Glenn explains what YOU need to know!

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So about that rumour John Bolton was fired for organising a purchase of Iranian weapons...

f'ing Amerifags. Even their own president decided he couldnt stand to be married to em.

However at least someone is bringing the pain on the damn Saudi scum, only thing worse than an Amerifag is the Saudi child rapist scum they are subserviant to.

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The Latest: Saudi minister: 50% of crude reduction restored

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The Latest on tensions in the Persian Gulf and the fallout after weekend attack on major oil sites in Saudi Arabia (all times local):

10 p.m.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister says 50% of the production cut by the attack on its oil processing plant has been restored.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman made the comments Tuesday night at a news conference in Jiddah.

The attack Saturday struck a Saudi oil field and the world’s largest crude oil processing plant, which knocked out 5.7 million barrels of crude oil production per day for the kingdom, or about 5% of the world’s daily production.

The prince added that within this month, production capacity will be up to 11 million barrels per day by the end of September. It had been around 9.6 milllion barrels per day before the attack.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, whom a Saudi-led coalition have been fighting since March 2015, claimed the attack. However, U.S. and Saudi officials say they believe Iran carried out the assault, something denied by Tehran.

___

7:40 p.m.

Egypt’s foreign minister says his country is standing by Saudi Arabia following the weekend attack on major oil sites in the kingdom.

Sameh Shoukry is calling on the international community to collectively back Saudi Arabia and identify who was responsible for the attacks on a Saudi oil field and the world’s largest crude oil processing plant.

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