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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Sep. 2019 Trading - v.128

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TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

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BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

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Happy that I found the EXIT - mostly at above $2.00

MUX returned to its losing ways since then - Might take another look below $1.65

MUX / McEwen Mining ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 4yr : 3yr : 1yr : 6mo ... / Last: $1.63

TTqMX3Y.gif

: 3yr : 1yr : 6mo ... / Last: $1.63

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Ratio: MUX to GDX

68D9LPl.png

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Excellent interview.  Worrying story about HK

Kyle Bass on China's Major Risks & Opportunities (w/ Grant Williams)

Bass thinks shorting the HKD could be a good trade now.

China will want to choose its own timing on when to devalue HKD, and link it to the RMB.

That could be very soon

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How Much Will Oil Surge When Trading Reopens

brent%209.15.jpg?h=55c36216&itok=rqM-fB0

Consensus is for a $5-10/barrel spike, with some expecting Brent hitting as much as $80 tomorrow.

/ 2 /

Could Be "Weeks" Before Aramco Restores Full Production Capacity As Specter Of $100 Oil Looms

smoke%20abqaiq.jpg?itok=5WW39yNc

The 5.7 million barrels a day outage is the single worst supply disruption even over and against the first Gulf War and the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran.

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The Top 30 IPOs Of 2019 Will Burn A Total Of $12.5 Billion Between Them

2019%20ipos%20net%20loss.jpg?h=13655b43&

IPOs completed during 2019 are projected to be the least profitable IPOs of any year since the Tech boom.

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READY FOR ACTION ?

President Trump Signals Military Action Over Attack On Saudi Oil Sites: ‘Locked And Loaded’

/ 2 /

Thank God, Bolton is no longer at the table ('tho he may have called some shots on this)

Kellyanne Conway touts Trump admin after Bolton's departure

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Oil Shares Up Big & OIL UP MORE !

BP: +4%, Brent: +8%

BP Plc vs OILB/Brent ... 10day : 6mo / BP: 524.8P, +4.04%, OILB: 30.19, +8.38%

7jAWg9n.gif

: 6mo : 12mo /

RQ8K7p3.gif

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Joe Rogan Experience #1351 - Dan Aykroyd

Dan Aykroyd, CM OOnt is a Canadian-American actor, producer, comedian, musician and filmmaker who was an original member of the "Not Ready for Prime Time Players" on Saturday Night Live.

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Banks Warm to Mortgage Bonds That Burned Them in '08...

RON PAUL: WATCH THE BUBBLE BURST...

“You can’t predict exactly where the creation of credit goes,” said Paul. “We have a ton of inflation with all that QE [quantitative easing]. And, every time you lower interest rates below market levels and create new credit, that’s a bubble.”

Paul has been waving the red flag for years, warning that a once in a lifetime market drop of 50% or more will strike stocks. With bonds yielding negative rates now in focus, he suggests the danger is ballooning to unseen levels.

Yet, he’s unsure of the timing of a collapse.

“You don’t know this precise time. But you know it can happen,” he said. “How do you sell a bond that pays a negative rate? Who’s going to jump up and down?”


PEW: 19% of Americans considered upper class...

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TOXIC Femininity:  GOVERNMENT is THE Answer

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The Latest: Saudi minister: 50% of crude reduction restored

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The Latest on tensions in the Persian Gulf and the fallout after weekend attack on major oil sites in Saudi Arabia (all times local):

10 p.m.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister says 50% of the production cut by the attack on its oil processing plant has been restored.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman made the comments Tuesday night at a news conference in Jiddah.

The attack Saturday struck a Saudi oil field and the world’s largest crude oil processing plant, which knocked out 5.7 million barrels of crude oil production per day for the kingdom, or about 5% of the world’s daily production.

The prince added that within this month, production capacity will be up to 11 million barrels per day by the end of September. It had been around 9.6 milllion barrels per day before the attack.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, whom a Saudi-led coalition have been fighting since March 2015, claimed the attack. However, U.S. and Saudi officials say they believe Iran carried out the assault, something denied by Tehran.

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7:40 p.m.

Egypt’s foreign minister says his country is standing by Saudi Arabia following the weekend attack on major oil sites in the kingdom.

Sameh Shoukry is calling on the international community to collectively back Saudi Arabia and identify who was responsible for the attacks on a Saudi oil field and the world’s largest crude oil processing plant.

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BUBBLES and Anti-Bubbles /

Spotting Bubbles: The Biggest Risk to the Financial System (w/ Diego Parrilla) >

How can investors position themselves to profit from irrational markets? Diego Parrilla of Quadriga Asset Management explores the opportunities behind bubbles — and their funhouse mirror opposite, anti-bubbles — which result from artificially suppressed prices. Filmed on October 16, 2018 in New York.

ANTI-BUBBLES:  Gold, Volatility ... are "artificially cheap"

 

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Glenn Beck gets to an excellent rant

ANOTHER COMING RECESSION?

Federal Reserve Funds Banks Billions, Market is Broken

 

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CYCLE in FCX & Copper... all-data : 5yr : fr.11/2015 / 8-9 months, recently bottomed at end of Aug. 2019

jV6g3tK.gif

FCX is more volatile... so the cycle highs and lows may be easier to spot

Ratio: FCX-to-Copper

izpqdiG.png

Is the Big Market Cycle About to Turn? (w/ Ron William)

RW says some sensible things, but is looking at a longer cycle - like 10 years

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The Vile NEW RELIGION of the LEFT
Interview with Douglas Murray about The Madness of Crowds (ENG)

The subject of Douglas Murray’s new book The Madness of Crowds is the growing vehemence of public discourse.

This phenomenon, emenating mainly from universities and the media, seems to allow only a certain set of convictions. Douglas Murray uncovers the religious nature of this development and describes the looming dangers in his interview with Roland Tichy and Achim Winter of the German magazine Tichys Einblick.

Time to start making martyrs of them. Start by eviscerating Justin Trudeau for the "sin" of wearing blackface.

The Left needs to get on with eating their own leaders.. Trudeau's hypocrisy make him an excellent target

My Thoughts on Justin Trudeau (THE SAAD TRUTH_955)

 

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LOW RATES are having an impact

BOOM: New Home Sales Fastest Pace Since 2007…

Sales of new single-family homes in the U.S. soared much higher than expected in August and sales data for the previous two months were revised upwards as well.

The Census Bureau said on Wednesday that new home sales rose 7.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000 units in August. July and June’s sales pace were also revised up.

The three-month moving average, which many economists consider a more reliable indicator of the health of the housing market because it smooths out month-to-month volatility, climbed to 703,000, the fastest pace in nearly 12 years.

Economists polled by Econoday had forecast an annual pace of 662,000 new home sales, a 3.5 percent climb.

Compared with a year ago, sales were up 18 percent.

New home sales appear to be benefitting from the strength of the labor market and lower interest rates. The Fed cut its interest rate target by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its July meeting and mortgage rates are down by more than a percentage point from last year’s high.

Although new home sales account for only 11.5 percent of total housing market sales, they have bigger spill-over effects on the economy. Home building increases demand for labor and new homes need to outfitted with furniture and appliances.

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GLD / Gold ... 3-yr :

iIj4qvb.gif

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"I VOTED FOR HILLARY CLINTON... but it did not feel good"

Dave Chappelle Compares Hillary Clinton To Darth Vader | Netflix Is A Joke

==

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Doug Casey - Expect At Least $5,000 Gold In This New Spectacular Bull Market

 

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Miami Real Estate Is About To Collapse…


Miami has a highly cyclical property market where the magnitudes of the booms and busts dwarf anywhere else in the country.  In my experience, trends in Miami real estate also tend to lead national trends by a few quarters. Therefore, smart guys always watch Miami. Roughly a year ago, I noticed that Miami property prices started to decline after a two or three-year period ... Read More

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Talking Shipping With Mike Alkin


Over the past few months, I’ve received a lot of questions on shipping. Mike “Mr. Uranium” Alkin invited me on his show to answer some of those questions. We talked shipping, uranium, Greece and much more. My part begins at the 20 minute mark (damn Uber had me late).  I hope you enjoy. https://www.curzioresearch.com/this-beautifully-ugly-industry-has-massive-upside-potential/  

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Casey Daily Dispatch Reader,

Trump's devastating sanctions on Iran are in full effect...

...and oil markets are on ALERT.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani declared:

"This is an economic war against Iran. We are prepared to resist... and [we will] break the sanctions!"

Iranians are rallying in the capital, Tehran...

...they're chanting "Death to America!"...

...burning U.S. flags and pictures of President Trump...

Image
 

The situation is tense. And it can get out of hand any day...

I'm sure I don't have to tell you but... a new crisis in the Middle East could seriously cripple A THIRD of the world's oil supplies...

And Iran's leaders have a secret plan to completely disrupt the oil market—and spike oil prices across the Western world as punishment.

 

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Bonds rising over the past year.. means that Long Term rates have fallen

Possibly be enough to avoid a Recession

TLT / etf for Long Term US govt bonds ... update / Last: $142.73

v21mHag.gif

Look at what these long rate cuts have done to the stock price of one of the largest US homebuilders

PHM / Pulte Group ... update / Last: $35.92

dcsLwIL.gif

 

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STOCK PICKERS may WIN in the Future

HOW TO SPOT BUBBLES (there may be one on indexing)

Identifying Financial Bubbles in the System Before a Crisis (w/ Vikram Mansharamani) >

Has "passive investing gotten ahead of itself" /

Some think "prices are right, so don't bother with analysis" / this may be wrong.

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