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DrBubb's Diary - Sep. 2019 Trading - v.128

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Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 128th Month = Over 10 years.

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)

GjtfFlk.jpg

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Featured Video (coming)

================

DrBubb's Diary - Sep. 2019 Trading - v.128

FRT/ Fed Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : GLD-SPY : FRTw/SLV : vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

h8Vrpo1.gif

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term: tny_au_en_euoz_2.gif

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

XMoTw3m.png

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

WwD9kqI.png

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE : w/OIH :

Oil or Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

TGHRdh3.gif

: w/OIH :

fW0LMcY.gif

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

el7816f.gif

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

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Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l

2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
Mar
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
29: 293.87 +0.46: 57.2M: 13.11 : 20.84 - 0.46: 120.83 - 0.54 4.47M: 1281.4 $63.50 : $97.86 - 0.15: 123.02 - 0.19/ 00, 071: 000, 640
30: 294.02 +0.15: 00.0M: 13.12 : 20.89 +0.05: 121.20 +0.37 0.00M: 1286.7 $63.91 : $97.53 - 0.33: 123.65 +0.63/ 00, 074: 000, 680
MAY
30: 279.03 +0.76: 82.1M: 17.30 : 20.77+0.45 : 121.69 +0.82 7.76M: 1292.4 $56.59: $98.17 +0.03: 130.20 +1.11/ 00, 092: 000, 1000
31: 275.27 - 3.76: 86.9M: 18.71 : 21.59 +0.82 : 123.33 +1.64 15.4M: 1311.1 $53.50: $97.61 -0.56: 131.83 +1.63/ 02, 094: 047, 1047

June
26: 290.47 - 0.29: 51.6M: 16.21: 25.52 -0.11: 132.97 - 1.23 12.0M: 1000.0 $00.00: $96.27 - 0.02: 131.97 -0.85/
27:  291.50 +1.03 00.0M: 15.82:
28: 293.00 +1.50: 59.4M: 15.08: 25.56 +0.00: 133.20 -0.00 00.0M: 1000.0 $00.00:  $96.20 -0.00: 132.55 +0.00/ 00,060: 000, 720
July
29: 301.46 - 0.55: 38.1M: 12.83: 27.77 +0.49: 134.53 +0.89 9.16M: 1420.0 $00.00: $98.05 +0.00: 131.51 +0.00/
30: 300.72 - 0.74: 45.8M: 13.94: 27.83 +0.06: 134.98 +0.45 9.45M: 1442.0 $00.00: $98.06 +0.01: 131.83 +0.32/
31: 297.43 - 3.29: 104.M: 16.12 : 26.50 - 1.33: 133.21 - 1.77 18.8M: 1437.8 $58.58: $98.82 +0.76: 132.89 +1.06/

AUG
29: 292.58 +3.69: 58.0M: 17.88 : 29.66 - 0.75: 144.12 - 1.04 14.8M: 1536.9 $56.71: $98.44 - 0.07: 147.24 - 0.56/ 00, 50: 000, 435
30: 292.45 - 0.13: 63.0M: 18.98 : 29.86 +0.20: 143.75 - 0.37 9.64M: 1529.4 $55.10: $98.81 +0.47: 147.28 +0.04/
SEP
02: Holiday ==========: 19.66 :
03: 290.74 - 1.71: 69.2M: 18.14 : 30.37 +0.51: 145.75 +2.00 15.6M: 1555.5 $53.90: $98.81 - 0.19: 147.21 +0.19/
04: 294.04 +3.30: 47.0M: 17.33 : 30.95 +0.58: 146.66 +0.91 11.3M: 1560.0 $56.20: $98.43 - 0.38: 147.43 +0.22/ 00, 12; 000, 025
05: 297.82 +3.78: 00.0M: 16.27 : 29.31 - 1.64: 143.14 - 3.42 00.0M: 1525.5 $56.30: $98.41 - 0.02: 144.76 - 2.67/
06: 298.05 +0.23: 49.5M: 15.00 : 28.48 - 0.83: 141.92 - 1.22 14.2M: 1515.5 $56.52: $98.01 - 0.40: 145.79 +1.03/ 00, 15: 000, 060
09: 298.20 +0.15: 51.3M: 15.27 : 27.73 - 0.75: 141.39 - 0.53 11.3M: 1511.1 $57.85: $98.38 +0.37: 143.20 - 2.59/ 00, 06: 000, 090
10: 298.13 - 0.07: 57.9M: 15.20 : 27.51 - 0.22: 140.18 - 1.21 12.6M: 1499.2 $57.40: $98.34 - 0.04: 140.69 - 2.51/ 00, 19: 020, 110
11: 300.25 +2.12: 68.8M: 14.61 : 27.72 +0.21: 141.03 +0.95 7.45M: 1000.0
12: 301.29 - 0.00: 00.0M: 14.22 : 27.27 - 0.45: 141.32 +0.29 00.0M: 1507.4 $55.09: $98.31 - 0.00: 139.52 -0.00/
13: 301.09 - 0.20: 62.1M: 13.74 : 26.64 - 0.63: 140.15 - 1.17  13.5M: 1499.5 $54.85: $97.86 - 0.45: 136.54 - 2.98/ 00, 25: 000, 158
16: 300.16 - 0.93: 58.2M: 14.67 : 27.29 +0.65: 141.32 +1.17  8.09M: 1511.4 $62.90:
17: 300.92 +0.76: 42.9M: 14.44 : 28.12 +0.83: 141.60 -0.28 7.05M: 1513.0 $59.30:
18: 301.10 +0.00: 00.0M: 13.95 : 27.62 +0.00: 140.71 +0.00 0.00M: 1515.2 $58.00: $
19: 301.08 - 0.02: 78.1M: 14.05 : 28.10 +0.48: 141.28 +0.57 8.06M: 1506.2 $58.19: $98.21 - 0.06: 140.04 +0.00/
20: 298.28 - 1.41: 97.5M: 15.32 : 28.69 +0.59: 142.95 +1.67 12.3M: 1515.1  $58.09: $98.46 +0.25: 141.89 +1.85/
23: 298.21 - 0.07: 47.5M: 14.91 : 29.16 +0.47: 143.75 +0.80 9.04M: 1000.0 $00.00: $98.65 +0.19: 141.86 - 0.03/
24: 295.87 +0.00: 00.0M: 17.05 : 29.49 +0.33: 144.51 +0.66 0.00M: 1530.2 $57.29: $98.34 -0.31: 142.48 +0.62/
25: 297.62 + 1.75: 73.4M: 15.96 : 28.43 -1.06: 141.83 - 2.68 12.0M: 1512.3 $56.49: $99.01 +0.67: 141.47 - 2.01/
26: 297.00 - 0.62: 58.7M: 16.07 : 28.11 - 0.32: 141.79 - 0.04 8.80M: 1510.0 $56.52: 4.79=11.80 $99.13 +0.12: 142.38 +0.91/
27: 295.40 - 1.60: 84.8M: 17.22 : 27.45 - 0.66: 141.06 - 0.73 9.67M: 1502.3 $55.85: 4.79=11.66  $99.12 -0.01: 142.73 +0.35/
30: 296.77 +1.37: 52.6M: 16.24 : 26.71 - 0.74: 138.87 - 2.29 15.5M: 1479.0 $54.32: 4.79=11.34 $99.38 +0.26: 143.08 +0.35/
 

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Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

A month ago, I said:

"Many Gold shares are COILED & Ready to spring - if the Dollar slides below $97"

But the USD is still over $97, while Gold has jumped over $1300 again. This looks good

idx24_usd_en_2.gif  : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : 2yr : DXY: $97.61+1.44, EUR: $1.1200 -0.027, GBP: $1.264, CAD: $0.738, AUD: $0.694, PHP: 52.15 (from last mo.)

5nh96TC.gif

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba : GDXJ: $29.53 +1.03 , OIH: $13.08 -0.36, USO: $11.10 -0.66

0hjPbHr.gif

FXFX : 2017-mid'19 :

oPsDXSA.gif

Group #1 : update : old chartJNUG ($7.55 -22.6%), UGLD ($96.39 +1.84%), GDXJ ($29.53 -7.11%) - from last month

LQnx6Cw.gif

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.49 -0.85%), CCO.t ($13.64 -12.3%), MUX.t ($1.82 -9.91%)

ZWEPhpH.gif

OIH ($13.08 -27.3%) vs. Drillers: HAL ($21.29 -31.3%), MDR ($6.04 -27.8%), ESV ($8.37 -48.1%)

d1FDdaC.gif

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Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

=== 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 : 

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

nVzEZ3p.gif

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

9S1H6rx.gif

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

nyB6fg2.gif

SPX ... 10-yr

3OBqgrF.gif

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

jdfaUBq.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

sWEYfy8.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

rpAk3nN.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

uPTblbm.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

3exBC6r.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

4yeFpcu.gif

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

OdgKj01.gif

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

eavKQ45.gif

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

jQ65ScB.gif

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new, 

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BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2019: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep .7, +Dec.3, /
2018 : -Jan.4, +Jan.17
2019 : +Jan.18, +Apr.17, -May29, -Aug28, +Oct.9, -Dec3 

bVz4z2b.gif

Model dates: 2019 : 2018 : 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :
2019-Bradley-Siderograph.png
===
Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2019 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

5hFlqdd.gif

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2019 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

wyXnzph.gif

Gold-Bradley-Siderograph-2019-Turn-Dates

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !

fguOGn7.gif

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

wDu3Hxx.gif

NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

zbFlN2v.gif

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

utFi6fa.png

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Gas down, Oil down... OIH making new lows (AGAIN! early Aug.)

1vMnFlG.png

WTI crude

G5ZWnDF.png

OIH / Oil Service

Ccj5YSq.png

"Oil Service stocks are still under pressure" - I said May 2nd

HAL, etc ... update : 10d / Last: $21?

O2cpbsk.gif

Sym. 31may: 01may: -Chg. -Pct%: PER : Yield :
HAL: $21.29: $27.59 -6.30 -22.8%:10.6: 3.38%
SLB:  $34.69: $41.37 -6.68, -16.1%: 23.8: 5.77%
Bhge $21.41: $23.55 -2.14, -9.09%: 66.9: 3.36%
OIH : $13.08: $16.14 -3.06, -19.0%: N/ A: 2.29%
XLE : $58.77: $64.79 -6.02. -9.29%: N/ A: 3.52%
CNQ: $26.99: $28.94 -1.95, -6.74%: 14.5: 4.13%
CHK: $ 1.92 : $ 2.83 -0.91, -32.2%: 4.43: 0.00%
SWN: $ 3.52 : $  3.87 -0.25, -6.46%: 2.14: 0.00%
USO: $11.10 : $13.22 -2.12, -16.0%: ==
WTI: $53.50: $63.60 -10.1,-15.9%: ==
NGas $ 2.45: $2.62: - 0.17, -6.49%:
NG/wt r-4.6%: r-4.1%: :

Ratio: NatGas to-WTI Crude - @ r-4.12% - Buy NatGas versus Oil?

IgoGQPR.png

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Hang Lung: The Price GAP narrows AGAIN, as higher yielding HK101 outperforms HK10 >

Reaching *nearly* Yield Parity.

HK101/ HLP vs HK10 / HLG ... update : 10d. w/Hk2823 : $17.66 +0.44 > $21.50 +0.15, Gap: $2.84 / Ratio: 82.1%

zx7OCK9.gif

Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / HK2823: ratio / Dv.80 : Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r208.%/ =========== /  80cts. 75cts. 5cents: R-div. :
Earns/sh.: $ 3.88 : $ 1.80 : $2.08: r216.%/
Dividends: $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05: r107.%/
09/03/19: $20.20: $18.88: $1.32: r107.%/ $14.68: r-138%/ . 3.96% 3.97%: 0.01%r99.7%:
08/30/19: $19.48: $17.72: $1.76: r110.%/ $14.52: r-134%/   4.11% 4.23%: 0.12%:   r97.2%:
06/28/19: $21.65: $18.58: $3.07: r117.%/ $14.94: r-145.%/  3.70% 4.04%: 0.34%:  r91.6%:
03/29/19: $25.20: $19.16: $7.02: r117.%/ $14.58: r-173.%/  3.17% 3.91%: 0.74%:  r81.1%:
12/31/18 : $19.94: $14.92: $5.02: r134.%/ $11.40: r-175.%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
12/29/17 : $28.75: $19.10: $9.66: r151.%/ $15.02: r-191.%/  2.78% 3.93%: 1.15%: r70.7%:
—————

 Wow!

The pricing gap has now narrowed so much that both stocks have (almost) the same yield.

Meantime, HK10 has about 108% more asset backing than HK101.

A pairs trade : Long HK10 / Short HK101, may be virtually risk-free, apart from (important) liquidity & borrowing issues

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NEXT BUBBLE: INDEX Stocks?

Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ says he has found the next market bubble

Key Points
  • Passive investments are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago, Burry told Bloomberg News.
  • “Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,” said Burry.
  • “The theater keeps getting more crowded, but the exit door is the same as it always was. All this gets worse as you get into even less liquid equity and bond markets globally,” he said.

106091765-1566479308096gettyimages-49856

Michael Burry, one of the first investors to call and profit from the subprime mortgage crisis, is seeing a similar bubble in passive investing, according to Bloomberg News.

Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds are inflating stock and bond prices in a similar way that collateralized debt obligations did for subprime mortgages more than 10 years ago, Burry told Bloomberg News in an email. When the massive inflows into passive vehicles reverse, “it will be ugly,” he said.

“Like most bubbles, the longer it goes on, the worse the crash will be,” Burry said. “This is very much like the bubble in synthetic asset-backed CDOs before the Great Financial Crisis in that price-setting in that market was not done by fundamental security-level analysis, but by massive capital flows based on Nobel-approved models of risk that proved to be untrue.”

 

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RECESSION WATCH & WARNINGS

Yield Curve ... update : 30yr : 10yr-TNX : 2yr :

AUC64Xd.png

/ 2 /

ISM Manufacturing PMI Hits 49.1%, Officially Contracting...

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls Most Since 2012 on Trade Fears

Link to the report: www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1

If anyone was wondering why the market dipped again after 10AM here’s why. Trade policy concerns and supply chain impacts are being cited as some of the largest reasons for slowing orders and leaner inventories. This is one of the indicators the FOMC is going to be looking at when they make their next rate decision and this is the first time this particular indicator has been in contraction territory in years.

/ 3 /

Sharpest decline in new work since March 2009

New orders fall at fastest pace for over ten years in August…

 

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Trouble & Opportunity come together

Junk Debt in a stressed oil patch

Wall Street Gears Up For Onslaught Of Oil & Gas Bankruptcies

Oil and gas companies are facing an onslaught of bankruptcies as the “shale revolution” appears to be coming to an unceremonious end, at least on Wall Street, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Companies like Sanchez Energy Corp., Halcon Resources Corp. and 26 other oil and gas producers have all filed for bankruptcy this year, already matching the 28 industry bankruptcies from all of 2018. The number is expected to rise as debt maturities for those looking to cash in on the shale revolution and make bets on higher oil prices years ago are now looming.

5.7% of all energy companies with junk rated bonds are defaulting as of August, the highest level since 2017. The metric is “considered a key indicator of the industry’s financial stress.”

1567535694-o_1djs6guq111uf16rc1jdh1kng1f

The defaults are on the rise as companies struggle to service debt, bring in new money and refinance existing debt. The once-darling shale business model has been under significant scrutiny from Wall Street over the last 18 months, adding to the headwinds for many companies.

Investor interest has faded after years of meager returns while, at the same time, companies struggle to meet their cost of capital with oil prices below $60/barrel.

/ 2 /

Oil Prices Must Drop Sharply To Compete With EVs

All major stakeholders in the oil industry need oil prices to be higher than the current $60 a barrel Brent Crude to turn profits or balance government budgets.

Yet, in the long term, oil prices at $60 wouldn’t be competitive in the transportation sector because they won’t be able to compete with electric vehicles (EVs), BNP Paribas Asset Management said in a research note last month.

 

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Scary musings about Debt & the "Madness" of 2008's Debt surge

"When the economy unwinds, Trump will get blamed... and we may get a Socialist President"

Trump and the Fed's Trillion Dollar Decision (w/ David Stockman)

David Stockman, the former director of the Office of Management and Budget under Ronald Reagan, argues that the Fed’s decision to rapidly expand its balance sheet in response to the financial crisis set the table for a breakdown in global economics and politics. Stockman argues that the knock-on effects from the Fed’s decade-old decision could have significant consequences. This clip is excerpted from a video published on Real Vision on February 25, 2019 entitled “The Economic Danger Posed by Trump.”

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WHY the Sudden Halt (in Luxury spending) ?

Luxury Property, & other Luxury Goods are not selling well

Uh, OH! The Top 10% Account For 50% Of Consumption, But The Wealthy Have Stopped Spending

  • A sudden pullback in spending among the wealthy could cascade down to the rest of the economy and create a further drag on growth.
  • High-end real estate is having its worst year since the financial crisis.
  • Luxury retailers are struggling while discounters like Walmart and Target thrive.
  • At this month’s massive Pebble Beach car auctions, the most expensive cars faltered on the block.
  • In the first half of 2019, art auction sales were down for the first time in years.

The rich have cut their spending on everything from homes to jewelry, sparking fears of a trickle-down recession that starts at the top.

From real estate and retail stores to classic cars and art, the weakest segment of the American economy right now is the very top. While the middle class and broader consumer sections continue to spend, economists say the sudden pullback among the wealthy could cascade down to the rest of the economy and create a further drag on growth.

Luxury real estate is having its worst year since the financial crisis, with pricey markets like Manhattan seeing six straight quarters of sales declines. According to Redfin, sales of homes priced at $1.5 million or more fell 5% in the U.S. in the second quarter. Unsold mansions and penthouses are piling up across the country, especially in ritzy resort towns, with a nearly three-year supply of luxury listings in Aspen, Colorado, and the Hamptons in New York.

Retailers to the 1% are faring the worst, with famed Barney’s filing for bankruptcy and Nordstrom posting three consecutive quarterly declines in revenue. Meanwhile, Wal-Mart and Target, which cater to the everyday consumer, are reporting stronger-than-expected traffic and growth.

At this month’s massive Pebble Beach car auctions, known for smashing price records, the most expensive cars faltered on the auction block. Less than half of the cars offered for $1 million or more were able to sell. But cars priced at under $75,000 sold quickly — many for far more than their estimates.

In the first half of 2019, art auction sales were down for the first time in years. Sales at Sotheby’s dropped 10% and Christie’s auction sales were down 22% from a year ago.

(Note: the ART market, as reflected in Sothebys stock was a bellwether signalling a downturn in stocks & a possible recession...

UNTIL the company received a surprise takeover Bid* in June 2019)

BID / Sotheby's ... since 2007 : 2012 / Last: $50.00

1smKQgE.gif

There are many reasons for spending declines — tax changes, for instance, are to blame for some of the real estate slump.

===

* Patrick Drahi, a French-Israeli tycoon bids $2.7 Bn for Sotheby's:

"When this consummate outsider announced on June 17 that he would shell out $2.7 billion to purchase Sotheby’s, the iconic 275-year-old auction house, a raft of questions followed. Is he seeking a trophy asset to sit on his shelf, or will he shake up a firm that had seen its share price tumble by 40% in a year? Is it wise to pile more debt onto Sotheby’s? "

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BONDS n'Gold rose together ... Will they now slide together?

Perhaps an obvious Right Shoulder will get formed first (if this is a Head)

TLT vs-GLD .. fr.Oct.2018 : Oct.2014 / Last: $144.76 -1.8% / $143.14 -2.2% = Ratio: 101.3%

8K1sqVX.gif

Maybe long term rates have dropped far enough... Perhaps the big move down in rates will cancel the recession.

 

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Some powerful comments here... about Toxic Femininity

TF is linked to the rise of government, since women use government as the mechanism to extract resources from Men

How To Be a Modern Man! Stefan Molyneux of Freedomain in Conversation

32 minutes in: The Battle between two cultures
Families with Fathers + Discipline = Strong culture of responsible individuals
Single Mothers + “spray & pray” + high taxes, totalist government = Socialism w/o Freedom

THE DEMON FEMALE - interesting discussion at 42minutes in.
"We lost the ability to see women's capacity for Evil"
Women today are narcissitic, and cannot see when they are doing things wrong.
"women have a wonderful side, and an evil side." "We need to stop blaming men for everything"
"women's great weakness is vanity... you can see this all over the place."
"We have to remind them", so they will not be controlled by Left-generated narratives.
They are NOT always wonderful,  they can be irresponsible, selfish, predatory.

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NATGAS is gaining on WTI Crude

jTa6aDi.png

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GOLD Puts

BOT GLD Puts on the day of Gold's high

wZwiM8D.gif

Just sold half for a nice profit, with GLD near $140

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PINCHPOINT - for "All Energy"?

URPTF (Uranium), BTU (peabody Coal), USO (Crude Oil), Ngas (Nat.Gas) ... update : 10d :

JYTL8Y1.gif

===

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TOO MANY PEOPLE in the Gold Trade?

Steve Rhodes thinks so

Trade What You See 09-11-19

> https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/trade-what-you-see/trade-what-you-see-09-11-19-0PFciKDpg2e/

"Break of $1508, suggests a change in trend is underway

"Gold may pullback to $1412 (Dec.Gold) ... in the next 1-2 weeks,

And maybe $1286 by (something like) Jan-Feb."

"If THAT happens, people will HATE Gold, setting up a great Buy."

pyFSeie.png

==

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NGD / NewGold ... update / last: $1.21 + 0.03

zlbw1qW.gif

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GOLD gapped Up ... and I traded

Bought some Puts (@ a better price) - to replace the Ones I had sold - when Gold was lower

GLD -10 day chart / last: $142.79

hof5RUw.gif

ADDED later in Day

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PERFECT TIMING?

Love it when this happens:

BOT : Puts near HOD: Oct.18th $146P at $4.50 (x10)

Sold: Puts near LOD: Oct.18th: $148P at $7.25 (x 5)

Difference: $2.75, and $2 Gao in my favor, reduced money commitment at a nice profit !

earlier had sold (x5) $148P at $8.10

These Puts are hedging some physical Gold holdings.

If GLD rallies to above $142, and chart looks right, I might add more Puts

 

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Still waiting ... At the Energy Pinchpoint

All-E-2017 .... update : 10d / USO:

lGFz0lu.gif

USO / US Oil ...10yr : 2yr : 6mo : 10d / Last:

o4rB2Ai.gif

BTU-Peabody Coal may need help from Natgas (& Oil) ... update / Last

Lj9lCJE.gif

Some Oil Service stocks ... like HAL... are still near the Lows

FNmNREF.gif

HAL to USO ..

3vxVuoB.png

==

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