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Undervalued PH stocks: Technicals, Fundamentals, & 3A

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Undervalued stocks in PHilippines : Technicals, Fundamentals, & 3A

This thread may be eventually taken into a private part of the GEI website

The thread will allow me to share special content with friends from Manila that may not be suitable for discussion on public threads

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRiBgfqQWrMMIY92vcaz4e  Some have called these "No Brainers": (see 3A Rules in Sept.7th Post)

One thing we will be looking for are so-called "No Brainers" in the Philippines stock market, and the PH Property market.

The new private forum may soon be "by invitation only" for those who are known to the researchers

QUICK LOOK - at 3A's favored Three : TBGI, RCI, ATN ... 6mos : $ $$10d w/more/ Php 0.36, 1.67, 1.25 @ 9.5.2019

RKoZZl9.gif

Longer term : update : w/AGI : 12mo : ? :

yd49tKm.gif

"3A:  "ALL AREAS ANALYZED" / SEE RULES, Below: Sep.7th post

image.png

======

3A PORTFOLIO TRACK RECORD: No Outperformance (yet), if no active management.

In testing this approach, I think it will be useful to maintain some careful historical records

It is a reporting burden, but will help to build confidence in the approach.

Starting point: Allocate P10,000 to each of the three stocks, at end Dec. 2018.

3A PORTFOLIO Performance, Yr.End 2018 to end Sep. 2019: - 14.3%

Mo. :  RCI  : ------ / ATN : ----- / TBGI : ------ / +Ave%
====: #shs : value/ #shs: value/ #shs : value / TotVal. :
ye'16: 2.20 : -------- / 0.31 : ------- / P1.89 : -------- / 56.2k
ye’17: 2.55 : -------- / 0.41 : ------- / P2.70 : -------- / 77.1k
ye'18: 1.98 : ------/ 1.42 : ----- / 0.440 : ------ /
—— : 5,051: 10.0k/7,042: 10.0k/22,727: 10.0k/ 30.0k: Start

July: P1.49 : ------- / 1.28 : -------- / 0.355 : --------- /
Aug: P1.62 : ------- / 1.28 : -------- / 0.370 : --------- /
—— : 5,051: 8.18k/ 7,042: 9.01k/ 22,727: 8.41k / 25.6k: -14.7%
Sep: P1.97 : -------- / 1.18 : -------- / 0.325 : --------- /
—— : 5,051: 9.95k/ 7,042: 8.31k/ 22,727: 7.39k / 25.7k: -14.3%
wk1: P2.00 : ------- / 1.14 : -------- / 0.320 : ---------- /

OVERALL : There is NO evidence of OUTPERFORMANCE YET in these stocks,

Since from ye'2018 (7,462.02) the PSEI rose by +5.2%, to 7,849.94 at 9.30.2019
Thus, the 3A Portfolio underperformed over that period by about 20%
Having said that, TS made some good suggests about timing buys & sells,
Especially on RCI, which has risen from P1.49 end July, and P1.62 end Aug, to P2.00

WHAT IS MISSING from this?

The decision OVERLAY: Buy and Sell points, as may have been suggested by TS.

I am looking for a way to incorporate that into a historical track record.

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In Posts BELOW are some Philippines stocks that are believed to offer very favorable Risk-reward dynamics,

Mostly they are little known stocks, with undervalued assets, which are in the process of being discovered

=====

But first, here's a look at the Overall Philippines stock market.

And why it might make sense to look beyond the Blue Chip stocks, for hidden value.

ROLLING OVER?  A Big Drop Ahead for PH stocks ? (and property too?) !

PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... 10-year : 5yr: 2yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87. Late Aug. It rose into 8/30.

9Asz0gk.gif

Philippines PSEI / Possible Right Shoulder now in place at 8400, w/ recent rallyback to 8000

 PSEI ... update : with Prop.Dev'l : 10d / Last: 7,980 + 87, + 1.10%

tcCDa9a.gif

Major property developers ROSE to a NEW PEAK at the time of the recent possible Right Shoulder

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019

wGnqUMz.gif

If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks

The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway.

 

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Stock No-Brainer #1 : (thanks to Mr. TS) / Arsenio T Ng's company

PH:ATN / ATN Holdings Inc. (PHS) … all-data: 10yr: yr5: 2yr: 6mo / 10d - Last: P1.28 (12mo R: 1.06-1.59)

OLXHfZR.gif

: yr5:

GVT0hiI.gif

ATN Holdings, Inc. (ATN) was incorporated on February 17, 1961 as the Jabpract Mining and Industrial Corporation (JINICO), with the primary purpose of engaging in mining and oil exploration, with an initial authorized capital stock of Two Million Pesos (P2,000,000). On September 13, 1995, SEC approved the increase in authorized capital stock to Two hundred million pesos (P200,000,000) at One centavo   (P0.01) per share. On March 14, 1996, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), approved the changes of name from Jabpract Mining and Industrial Corporation to ATN Holdings, Incorporated and change of corporate purpose from mining to a holding company. A change of par from One Centavo (P0.01) per share to One Peso (P1.00) per share was subsequently approved by the SEC in November, 1996.
 

ATN invested in real properties and stocks. Its investments in real properties are several units of Summit One Tower, a 48'storey building located at 530 Shaw Boulevard, Mandaluyong City. Units of Summit One Tower are office condominium spaces ready for occupancy, with its own separate 6-level parking building and 2 basement parking levels. The units are for sale through either direct sales from walk-in clients, or referrals from independent brokers, or for lease to corporate clients.
ATN's subsidiaries are Palladian Land Development Inc. (PLDI), Advanced Home Concept Development Corp. (AHCDC) and Managed Care Phils., Inc. (MCPI).

website: http://www.atnholdings.com/

mptc1.jpg

From left to right: MPTC Chief Project Development Officer Raul Ignacio, MPTC President and CEO Rodrigo Franco, ATN Chairman and CEO Arsenio Ng, ATN Managing Director Larry Ng and Chairperson of Build, Build, Build Anna Mae Lamentillo

ATN to supply MPTC with rock aggregates

ATN Holdings, Inc. has signed a deal with Metro Pacific Tollways Corp. (MPTC) for the supply of 250,000 cubic meters (cu.m.) of rock aggregates for five infrastructure projects.

In a disclosure to the stock exchange Wednesday, ATN Holdings said it has signed a memorandum of understanding with MPTC on Tuesday that would support the government’s “Build, Build, Build” program.

MPTC’s projects that require rock aggregates include the Harbour Link Project, Cavite Laguna Expressway, Light Rail Transit- Line 1 Cavite Extension, North Luzon Expressway (NLEx)-South Luzon Expressway Connector Road Project, and the NLEx expansion project.

ATN Holdings said it already has an existing 500,000 cu.m. of aggregate stockpile. It is banking on the government’s infrastructure program to boost demand for their products in the future.

The company earlier said it has P240 billion worth of high quality rock reserves in its 256-hectare property in Montalban.

. . . Incorporated in 1961, ATN Holdings was previously a mining and oil company before it changed its primary purpose to that of a holding company with interests in real estate, land development, energy, and health care services. The company’s market cap stood at P4.736 billion at the end of Wednesday’s trading.

Shares in ATN Holdings jumped 1.56% or two centavos to close at P1.30 each at the stock exchange on Wednesday.

> more: https://www.bworldonline.com/atn-to-supply-mptc-with-rock-aggregates/

 

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Stock No-Brainer #2 : A listed company, related to #1, ATN

TBGI / Transpacific Broadband Group International Inc. (PHS)

PH:TBGI … all-data: 10yr: yr5: 2yr: 6mo / 10d - Last: P0.37 (12mo Range: P 0.295-0.69)

aBKpdqL.gif

: yr5:

9GciNtv.gif

/ TBGI's website: http://www.tbgi.net.ph/

Who is Transpacific Broadband Group International Inc.?

The Company is a duly registered Clark Special Economic Zone (CSEZ) enterprise with Registration Certificate No. 95-53 dated 29 November 1995 and has a 25-year Lease Agreement to build, maintain, and manage a satellite earth station within the CSEZ.

Jun 14, 2019 -
Jun 14, 2019 - LISTED Transpacific Broadband Group International, Inc. (TBGI) said ...

It is working with a China state-owned firm for the roll out of common towers for mobile network operators in the country.

In a disclosure to the stock exchange Thursday, TBGI said it signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Chinese company ZPI-SOE to assist it in “pre-site acquisition to the post-construction process” of the common tower aspect of the government’s third telco project.

“The MoU entails the formulation of the Matrix of Responsibilities, Project Schedule, Contract Arrangement and Milestones of the project,” it said.

No details on ZPI-SOE were available. The company is not among the 23 firms that earlier signed an MoU with the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) on the rollout of common towers.

Third telecommunications player Mislatel consortium also noted it is not in talks with TBGI for the provision of common towers for its rollout. “They were not among the companies that submitted a proposal,” Mislatel Spokesperson Adel A. Tamano told BusinessWorld.

But in its disclosure, TBGI said it has submitted an initial list of 3,000 sites that may be used for common towers located in private schools in its existing client base. These schools, TBGI said, are customers availing its broadband services. The agreement with the Chinese firm is expected to help the listed firm improve its top line by P1 billion in the next five years.

“Each tower infrastructure is estimated to cost $100,000 per site, while the site acquisition is budgeted from $7,000 to $8,000 per site,” it said. — Denise A. Valdez

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Stock No-Brainer #3 : (thanks to Mr. TS... again)

PH:RCI / Roxas & Co. (PHS) … all-data: 10yr: yr5: 2yr: 6mo / 10d - Last: P1.28 (12mo Range: 1.06-1.59)

SGuj3H4.gif

: yr5:

XYWGbSP.gif

==

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QUICK LOOK - at the favored Three : TBGI, RCI, ATN ... 6mos : 10d / Php 0.36, 1.67, 1.25 @ 9.5.2019- 2pm

RKoZZl9.gif

I probably would favor RCI at P1.67 at the moment

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3A APPROACH EXPLAINED (All-Angles Approach)

"Hey, Ted, can you define your 3A approach?"

"In my view, ACCESS to management is a key item beyond Technical & Fundamentals"

==========

That is ESSENTIAL. Not every person can have access to listed company owners. I know more moneyed stock players that some listed company owners will not deal with because they (the stock players) are unprofessional and coarse.

Bulletpoint Summary : 3A- AllAngles Approach

1. Look at all 250 philippine stocks and isolate those close to historical bottom. It means people hate them (Buffett said be greedy when others are fearful) or think they are garbage.

2. Study their financial statements and calculate intrinsic value (Buffett style).

3. Contact owner and see if there is turnaround catalyst.

4. Calculate from 2 years data if I have enough cash to create initial wave 1 up. Usually capital deployed is 50-100 million.

5. Market make so I know daily what is happening. Is there new demand or supply coming in?

6. Bring investment banking deals.

7. Share the story and the no-brainer opportunity as part of my charity work.

8. There are 9 rules to follow to make money in 3A. (see below)

If not followed, a person is even likely to lose. Monroe Trout said that he can give his winning system to others and it is possible they will not make money. Why? Because they will not follow all the steps of the system

 

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PROOF OF CONCEPT available? (Yes, says TS)

"Another proof of concept. Everything I do is carefully documented."

"I will already predict what will happen, when RCI and TBGI are much higher, that will be the proof of concept for many. And that's when they will want to come in.

That is probably actually the wrong time to come in, having missed maybe 20-50% (or more) gain already ."

(WhatsAp posts shown in image files)

"I recounted above to someone how he missed the rise of ATN from 0.33 to 1.69 which happened in 10 months"

"0.33 to 1.69 is a rise of +412% in 10 months or +495% annualized. Even if a person just captured a meager 10% of that or 49.5% annualized, how does that compare to property and businesses which are far less liquid and more headache to manage/administer"

"Someone might say I only show the winners. But the truth is 3A never had any loser because it is designed to only have winners so that I can bet big and not think of too many other things."

- From Ted S.

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INTERVIEW NOTES - About 3A "Rules"

Yesterday's article in Biz Buzz of Inquirer. Talks about potential of Nasugbu with new expressway planned that benefits this proven tourism area with excellent beach areas, etc.

RCI, that owns Roxaco Land, Punta Fuego development, etc is kingpin landowner in Nasugbu. Check out its financial statements in PSE Edge.

Major developers like SM, among many others, starting to notice area even more.

As mentioned, I developed a trading/investing system for Philippine stocks in 2011 called 3A system (All Angles Approach). From 2011 til now, it bought only around 13 stocks usually one at a time with a holding period of maximum 6-12 months. All stocks made money even in this 2018 bear mkt.

One stock rose 1000% while the worse performer was 45% rise. Due to the rigorous selection of stocks & the way the system is designed, it is a perfect system wherein profits are assured in 6-12 months or less. Usual return is 100-200% in 6 months.

Below are the rules to profit from it:

To make the best of my 3A (All Angles Approach) phil stock trading/investing system, there are guidelines/rules that MUST be followed strictly. Failure to follow them STRICTLY can result in losses and/or underperformance vs the profitable past performance of 3A system.

3A Guidelines/Rules: (expanded version)

1. A person who wishes to achieve best returns in 1-3 months should pool funds of P20-30 mil to invest in 3A choice stock. Without this, returns may be less immediate and can default to a 6-12 month holding period.

2. Buy more of the stock if it falls from initial entry points. 3A stocks were chosen because of their gross undervaluation vs intrinsic value. Think like Buffett who is happiest when his stocks fall in value as he can buy more on the cheap.

3. After one buys, he should automatically put good til cancelled sell orders on his positions at 5%-30% profit range. Keep some for a jackpot. 3A does not give signals on when to sell. It only gives signals of gross undervaluation vs intrinsic value.

4. Top investment gurus interviewed in Market Wizards book series say their winning systems may not work if used by others because others  tend not to comply with all the moves and rules of the system. Thus, one has to buy all the stocks 3A buys. Often, it is the stock(s) that a person does not buy (but 3A buys) which turns out to be the big winner.

5. Rule #2 cannot be overemphasised as the buying process has always to be done in bullets. Also averaging down is needed for quicker recovery time when the stock resumes its uptrend. Buying in bullets/averaging down is just pure logic and commonsense easily derived from simply observing chart patterns and having some, even limited, trading/investment experience.

6. Because of the strong possibility of a global meltdown in 2018-2019 onwards, 3A phil stocks are best hedged with some global short positions. The logic is if there is a massive global crash that occurs within days instead of the usual 12-24 months downward grind, then the global shorts leg helps partially compensate for the paper loss of the 3A position. If one does not know how to execute the global shorts, ask me how.

7. The reason 3A system does not indicate when to sell (except rule #3 above) is the selling process, decision and skill set are far more complex than entry. Since 3A was designed to be perfect (no loss at latest 6-12 months), the exit cannot be perfected (e.g., because what if there are signs to sell at 25% profit from entry and people sell. And then it shoots up another 200%). Hard to perfect the exit but the entry can be perfected as regards delivering a sure profit over 6-12 months maximum hold (and at times in just days or weeks).

8. Just to "accommodate" the inexperienced thinking of those who say "too good to be true", I have added this guideline: Another point is that if ever a person still has a paper loss on the 3A phil stocks after 12 months, that only means the world has gone to pot. In that situation, the person would have far bigger losses in his properties, businesses, country club shares, stock and bond and balanced funds, his peso cash, his insurance policies tied into stocks/bonds/balanced portfolios, etc. The 3A stock will SURELY  be the least of his problems.

9. Rule #9 of 3A system is a repeat of the common sense concept of "follow all its signals at the price of the signal and average down". Many decide to not buy all the stocks 3A buys. The fact is, invariably, what they don't buy turns out to be the big winner, sooner or later. The expanation is simple: the least expected outcome in markets tend to have the biggest payoffs. There is no point in trying to be smarter than 3A. The 3A is tried and tested since Apr 2011 to deliver consistent profits; not the win lose win lose win lose etc syndrome everyone else experiences.

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Looking back...

... I want to discover what caused this Valuation Gap with TBGI dropping back in late 2018 ... update

QTO1RN8.gif

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SM - the Main BELLWETHER for Big Cap PH stocks - is testing the BOTTOM of its channel

If/ when it breaks uptrend, that me mean a Bear market is underway

SMPH ... update / Last: P34.65 - 0.35, -1.00%

TkcJTtf.gif

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SWITCH Opportunity?

RCI ( P1.87) > TBGI ( P0.335, 18.1%); cf. 5.58x : Sell 100k, to Buy 558k;  ATN (P 1.14)

TBGI etc ... update /

alsYSYW.gif

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Is PH more or Less Bullish than the USA?

Tony Caldaro's Monthly Ewave count - for S&P500 (SPX) ... Weekly: 10yr : 5yr :

ZUvTLnm.png

TS: Wow. This is an extremely bullish wave count, isn't it?
DB: 3 of 3 might be Dead ahead, if he is right
— : What might cause that?  Negative rates, and wild money printing perhaps
TS: As long as no break of support, I would favor the upside in US
DB: The channel lines on that chart are mine, btw
TS: or if some agreement in China US trade? even if temporary?
DB: maybe.  Likely ... before the 2020 election imho
TS: yup. it's a trump card… he can throw
===

xx

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"Thinking Independently"

Good guy to answer this question is JIM ROGERS:

What does it take to be an Above Average investor?:  /

Jim Rogers Discusses Global Risks and Investment Opportunities 

 

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On 9/5/2019 at 2:56 PM, drbubb said:

QUICK LOOK - at the favored Three : TBGI, RCI, ATN ... 6mos : 10d / Php 0.36, 1.67, 1.25 @ 9.5.2019- 2pm

I probably would favor RCI at P1.67 at the moment

So what happened?  I did VERY well, while the other two have fallen

RCI / Roxas Corp.  ... update /Last: P 1.98 > it a high of 2.11 today - within a smidge of expected resistance (610 d MA)

E0IyjSc.gif

P 1.67 > 2.11, is a GAIN of 26.3% in just under one month.

So, a nice demonstration of concept by TS, on my first highlighted investment (which I did not buy in the "real world")

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PSEI - at 7,666-ish... on a Key Test

The Cut in the banks' RRR did not help for long

PSEI / Philippines Stock Index ... 5yr : 2yr: 6mo: 10d - vs.SPY-etc.: 10d-etc/ Last: 7669 - 71, -0.92%

w2XqmIr.gif

.: 10d-etc/ PSEI-Last: 7669

JIkR9v5.gif

When US stock indices rally - then PSEI is likely to rally too. 

Tuesday: SPY: was 293.24, down -3.53, -1.19% / SPX: was 2,940.25, down -36.49, -1.23%

Tony C's weekend comment / SHORT TERM action

spxhourly

Using our short term techniques we can count three more small waves down this week from our Nano wave b high, [3022]>2953>2990>2946.  There are several ways to consider the entire structure from the Micro 3 wave top at 3021, so we’re waiting for additional price action to sort that out.  It could be five overlapping waves from Micro wave 3, or an additional small wave down to complete the irregular a-b-c structure mentioned last week.  Micro wave 4 will be invalidated if it overlaps Micro wave 1 at 2940.

Short term support is at the 2929 and 2884 pivots.  Resistance is at the 2957 and 2984 pivots.

(Note: Tuesday LOD was: 2938.70. which is 0.33% above 2929. expected ST support):

Viber comment: "SPX could falling a bit today, and then rallying before EOD. 

That would help PSEI trading tomorrow. And allow nearly support for PSEI to hold"

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The BEAR argument... could be seen in this comment about the 90 YEAR CYCLE : spy

VgCzQoa.gif

"The 90 year cycle peaked on 9/3/1929 and now provides a reference point stop loss for traders on short position trades. If the cycle is active, DJI should now not violate the September 2019 high. If the 90 year cycle fails, risk is manageable at these levels. Whether the decline becomes a correction or bear market remains to be seen, but the technicals (finally) favor the downside. False breakouts across key sectors tend to be the Kiss of Death. We shall see. As a wise man said, “Monitor and adjust.”

~WD Gann 90-Year Cycle: “When we start from Sunrise or the Horizon and measure to Noon, we get an arc of 90 degrees, which is straight up and down starting from the bottom. 90 months or 90 years is a very important time period. The 90-Year Time Cycle is one of the very important ones because it is two times 45. This time period must always be watched at the end of long time periods. For example: 1932 was 90 years from 1842. Study the Wheat prices around this time. 1850-1851 – add 90 years and we get 1940-41. Note low prices of Wheat around that time.
1855, June, high for Wheat 170. 90 years from this period gives 1945. Wheat reached high in June, selling at 170, some contracts at 168 and 169. 1850-51, extreme lows for Wheat. Add 45 years and we get 1895 when extreme low was reached. From 1895 we again add 45 years and get 1940.”~ > https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2019/09/30/weekend-report-24/comment-page-3/#comments

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NOT a "3A stock" - but I am also considering buying some shares also in AGI, the parent co. of MEG / megaworld

AGI / Alliance Global ... All : 10-yr : 5yr: 2yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: P10.70

92TbxKr.gif

==> see thread on MEGaworld & AGI/ Alliance Global, its parent

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Are we now seeing the PSEI rollover ?

- Off the Right Shoulder? (near 8500, vs. 9,000 peak)

If US stocks continue to slide, the PSEI could go into free fall. Key support levels may be tested soon,

PSEI : 7,525 -85, -1.1% (After Last night's SPX: 2,887.71. -52.64, -1.79%)

PSEI ... 10-years : vs-SPY / 5-yr: 2-yr: 6mo /10d: w/other / Last: 7,525.41 -85.27 Mid-Day

rRxvdZS.gif

: PSEI-vs-SPY : 5yr : 2yr /

wgcUrhE.gif

THE GAP of AGI to the PSEI has become very big.  Time to Buy AGI as a proxy for the PSEI?

PSEI vs- AGI, MEG ... 10-yr: 5-yr / 2-yr fr.10/1/2017 : 6mo /10d - Last > see MEGaworld & AGI thread

E8hcGMY.gif

TIMING—: -PSEI : -AGI : MEG : Shng/ Agi/P: Meg/P: Meg/A: Shng/
YrE-2013 : 5,890 : 25.80 : 3.24 : 3.27 / 43.8%: 5.50%: 12.6% / 5.55%
YrE-2014 : 7,231 : 22.55 : 4.88 : 3.30 / 31.2%: 6.75%: 21.6% / 4.56%
YrE-2015 : 6,952 : 16.10 : 4.25 : 3.13 / 23.2% : 6.11%: 26.4% / 4.50%
YrE-2016 : 6,841 : 12.78 : 3.57 : 3.27 / 18.7% : 5.22%: 27.9% / 4.78%
YrE-2017 : 8,558 : 16.00 : 5.16 : 3.13 / 18.7% : 6.03%: 32.3% / 3.66%
YrE-2018 : 7,466 : 11.90 : 4.75 : 3.12 / 15.9% : 6.36%: 39.9% / 4.18%
01-29-18 : 9,059 : 15.50 : 5.06 : 3.24 / 17.6% : 5.59%: 32.6% / 3.57%
11-13-18 : 6,844 : 10.50 : 4.50 : 3.12 / 15.3% : 6.58%: 42.9% / 4.56%
09-15-19 : 7,997 : 12.76 : 5.18 : 3.36 / 16.0% : 6.48%: 40.6% / 4.20%
10/3 mid.: 7,522: 10.58: 4.40 : 3.29/ 14.1% : 5.85% : 41.6% / 4.37%
=======

Historically, AGI looks very cheap at under 15% (x 1/100th) of the PSEI - so I Bought some AGI shares

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Mere BOUNCE - or Beginning of new Rally?

On the back of a stronger Wall Street overnight, PH stocks are back to the Top of a down-channel on 10d chart

PSEI, rci, tbgi, agi, etc ... 10d / Last: 7,620 + 74, +0.98%; rci: 1.83 -0.05, tbgi: 0.335 +0.02, agi, 10.66 +0.20

YLGyLU1.gif

In edit : It turned out to be an exciting day with a strong close, expecially for AGI

Friday 10/4 Cls; change : %Chg : Compare with PSEI
PSEI : 7,704.60: +159.05 +2.11% : prev, was 7,546
AGI - : P 11.28:  +0.82 , +7.84% : from 13.9%>14.6% (/100) of PSEI
MEG : P  4.50 : + 0.13   , +2.97% : from 5.79%>5.84% (/100)
TBGI : P0.325 : + 0.01   , +3.17% :
RCI - :  P  1.83 :  - 0.05.  , - 2.66% :
ATN  : P.  1.15 : + 0.01   , +0.88% :
Shng: P.  3.18 :  - 0.01   , - 0.30% : from 4.23%>4.13% (/100)
====
Note, the big jump in AGI’s shares was due to a Buyback,
Of  at least 10-15 Million shares (it seems), of 23.9 M traded

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TRENDS

AGI - RCI, TBGI & PSEI ... update : 6mo / Last: 10.66 -0.24, 2.00 +0.09, 0.315 -0.005, 7,765

IO9btby.gif

RCI is still in its broad uptrend and AGI in a downtrend.  TBGI & PSEI in their corrections (probably)

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3A PORTFOLIO TRACK RECORD:

No Outperformance (yet), if no active management.

In testing this approach, I think it will be useful to maintain some careful historical records

It is a reporting burden, but will help to build confidence in the approach.

Starting point: Allocate P10,000 to each of the three stocks, at end Dec. 2018.

3A PORTFOLIO Performance, to end Sep. 2019: - 14.3%

Mo. :  RCI  : ------ / ATN : ----- / TBGI : ------ / +Ave%
====: #shs : value/ #shs: value/ #shs : value / TotVal. :
ye'16: 2.20 : -------- / 0.31 : ------- / P1.89 : -------- / 56.2k
ye’17: 2.55 : -------- / 0.41 : ------- / P2.70 : -------- / 77.1k
ye'18: 1.98 : ------/ 1.42 : ----- / 0.440 : ------ /
—— : 5,051: 10.0k/7,042: 10.0k/22,727: 10.0k/ 30.0k: Start

July: P1.49 : ------- / 1.28 : -------- / 0.355 : --------- /
Aug: P1.62 : ------- / 1.28 : -------- / 0.370 : --------- /
—— : 5,051: 8.18k/ 7,042: 9.01k/ 22,727: 8.41k / 25.6k: -14.7%
Sep: P1.97 : -------- / 1.18 : -------- / 0.325 : --------- /
—— : 5,051: 9.95k/ 7,042: 8.31k/ 22,727: 7.39k / 25.7k: -14.3%
wk1: P2.00 : ------- / 1.14 : -------- / 0.320 : ---------- /

OVERALL : There is NO evidence of OUTPERFORMANCE YET in these stocks,

Since from ye'2018 (7,462.02) the PSEI rose by +5.2%, to 7,849.94 at 9.30.2019
Thus, the 3A Portfolio underperformed over that period by about 20%
Having said that, TS made some good suggests about timing buys & sells,
Especially on RCI, which has risen from P1.49 end July, and P1.62 end Aug, to P2.00

WHAT IS MISSING from this?

The decision OVERLAY: Buy and Sell points, as may have been suggested by TS.

I am looking for a way to incorporate that into a historical track record.

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TIME FRAME for Performance record?

PSEI versus: RCI, ATN, & TBGI ... update /

x

Here's a Note from TS:

"Just for the record, I hv not been talking about RCI  ATN  TBGI for a long time. You can check with their owners. I only looked at their stocks and started buying for RCI jul 2018 and ATN 21 sep 2017 and TBGI Dec 2017.

As you can see, all of them were at their low points. When there is an opportunity for you to meet them, do verify the above.

Those initial buys of mine for these three stocks were messaged in whatsapp to my whatsapp list. So all that is documented.

And one can see the rise of those stocks from those buy points. Needless to say, such significant rise will result in corrections. We all know that."

/ 2 /

"It is nice to see RCI rise then from 1.80ish to 3.00 then fall as a buyout deal was not approved by govt.

But to fall as low as 1.30 was a beauty because it was weak hands that were selling. That was why I had on record the "1.30-1.35" buy

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