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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2019 Trading - v.127

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TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

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3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN : 

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BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

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"A very interesting Breakout!" - Record highs Possible

Louise Yamada Sees Gold Surging to New Highs

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WHERE the GAINS Were...

GCM.wtB have caught up with the Huge gains of WM - MUX was a big laggard

GCM -vs- WM.etc ... update

dLUSwnI.gif

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Victoria Gold gains are kicking in! ... update  : 48 cents + 3 cents. +6.7%

7V2bZqe.gif

 

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Despite 4% JUMP yestersday,  Oil is is still in a Downtrend

Weekly USO / US Oil (WTI) etf - etc ... update / Last: $11.87 +0.51, +4.49%

wy49j13.gif

A move above USO-$12.25 (x4.8= WTI $58.80) might be a confirmation that a new uptrend has started

gS7UUzD.png

The 4% jump in WTI, hardly moved the Dial on XLE, which was up just 1% to $58.94

BKAXRBY.png

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Stocks may be ready to short again

SPY - etc... update : 10d / Last: $292.55 +4.48: 94.8M

GOoTBzn.gif

: 10d :: FAZ ($38.41 -$1.19) / TZA ($49.95 -$1.68) = 76.9%

sAsKDLT.gif

===== $ 292.55 / VIX: 17.96%
PUTS  : Sep.16,’19: Oct.18,2019:
$300p  $8.41-8.55: 11.12-11.22 :
$295p $5.88-5.95: $8.75- 8.82 :
292.5e $5.04-5.10: $7.78-7.86 :
$290p  $4.19-4.25: $6.94-7.01 :
=====
AtT-$ :  5.07, 1.73%: 7.82, 2.67%:
sep.3rd 3.88, 1.31%:
13d’s:1.19/13=.092: 2.75/28=.098
13d’s: 0.42%=.032%: 0.94%  =.034%

 

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If the Big co's cannot pick winners in the sector - how can you?

Canopy Growth, world’s largest pot company, lost $1 billion in three months MarketWatch

Canopy Growth Corp. reported a C$1.28 billion quarterly loss late Wednesday and missed analyst revenue estimates for revenue, sending shares down 10% in after-hours trading.

The world’s largest cannabis company by market value, Canopy Growth CGC, -6.64% WEED, -5.76%  reported fiscal first-quarter net losses of C$1.28 billion, or C$3.70 a share, compared with losses of C$91 million, or 40 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The more than $1 billion loss was due to the company extinguishing warrants related to the Constellation Brands Inc. STZ, -1.61%  investment.

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On 8/13/2019 at 5:43 PM, drbubb said:

WHERE the GAINS Were...

GCM.wtB have caught up with the Huge gains of WM - MUX was a big laggard

GCM -vs- WM.etc ... update

dLUSwnI.gif

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Victoria Gold gains are kicking in! ... update  : 48 cents + 3 cents. +6.7%

7V2bZqe.gif

 

Been a good year for a few miners.

Suppose all boats float when the tide is rising, still prefer producers (or at least near term ones) than explorers, think if the general market bubble pops, funding junior explorers will once again be difficult.

 

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After the yield curve inverts — here’s how the stock market tends to perform since 1978

MW-HP418_invert_20190814121159_ZH.jpg?uu

The inversion of the main measure of the yield curve, or a negative spread between short-term and long-term yields, has preceded the last seven recessions. However, that doesn’t mean that recessionary jitters will spark a lasting selloff in equity markets.

On average, the S&P 500 has returned 2.5% after a yield-curve inversion in the three months after the episode, while it has gained 4.87% in the following six months, 13.48% a year after, 14.73% in the following two years, and 16.41% three years out, according to Dow Jones Market Data (see table below):

Date of first 2/10-year inversion 3 months later 6 months later 1 year 2 years 3 years
8/17/1978 -10.14% -6.10% 3.06% 19.64% 24.88%
8/20/1980 13.44% 2.27% 5.59% -8.69% 32.49%
12/9/1988 6.10% 17.93% 25.87% 18.31% 36.54%
5/26/1998 -0.90% 8.49% 19.26% 25.96% 16.81%
12/30/2005 4.16% 1.76% 13.62% 18.44% -28.65%
Average 2.53% 4.87% 13.48% 14.73% 16.41%

Read: These stocks are falling the most as Treasury yield curve inverts

On top of all that, a yield-curve inversion, doesn’t instantly result in an economic recession. From 1956, past recessions have started on average around 15 months after an inversion of the 2-year/10-year spread occurred, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

See full story.

Dow tumbles 800 points in biggest one day fall of year on global economic growth slowdown

U.S. stocks fell sharply Wednesday, following a series of worrying data on global economic growth, and after the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell below that of the 2-year note, marking an inversion of the main measure of the yield curve, flashing a recession warning signal. See full story.

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Easy Rider - Intro - Born to be wild!

Peter Fonda and the Captain America Bike

"Tell Me We Haven't Blown It": Peter Fonda Reflects on 'Easy Rider' and Its Unanswered Question

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Leftist Actor Peter Fonda Dead at 79

Actor Peter Fonda, who co-wrote and starred in the seminal 1960s counterculture film "Easy Rider," has died. He was 79.

In a statement obtained by Fox News, Fonda's family said that the actor  -- the son of Henry Fonda and the younger brother of Jane Fonda -- died Friday morning at his Los Angeles home after suffering respiratory failure due to lung cancer.

“In one of the saddest moments of our lives, we are not able to find the appropriate words to express the pain in our hearts. As we grieve, we ask that you respect our privacy," the family statement said. “And, while we mourn the loss of this sweet and gracious man, we also wish for all to celebrate his indomitable spirit and love of life. In honor of Peter, please raise a glass to freedom.”

Peter Fonda, pictured earlier this year at the Guadalajara International Film Festival 2019 in Mexico. (Photo by Leonardo Alvarez Hernandez/Getty Images)

Peter Fonda, pictured earlier this year at the Guadalajara International Film Festival 2019 in Mexico. (Photo by Leonardo Alvarez Hernandez/Getty Images)

Born into Hollywood royalty, Peter carved his own path with his non-conformist tendencies. He earned a Best Original Screenplay Oscar nomination for co-writing "Easy Rider," but lost out to William Goldman's script for "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid."

Nearly three decades later, Fonda snagged a Best Actor nomination for his work in 1997's "Ulee’s Gold." He lost out to contemporary Jack Nicholson's turn in "As Good As It Gets," but did snag a Golden Globe Award for Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries or Television Movie for his work in the 1999 Showtime original "The Passion of Ayn Ra

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This was a good interview with some excellent insights into the US political scene

Michael Knowles | The Ben Shapiro Show Sunday Special Ep. 62

Two very articulate men.  Yale Grad, and Harvard Law graduate

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CHARTS VIEW - How Serious is the DAMAGE IN HK, from the Protests?

// See New thread : TINY HONG KONG

It is certainly time the issue of HK PROTESTS was more fully discussed on GEI...

The protests & tensions are dominating headlines, and moving stock markets & property markets

HSI is oversold now, and has bounced off a mid-channel trendline near 25,000

HK:HSI / Hang Seng index ... all-data : 10-yr : 5yrW : 2yrD : 6mo : 10d / Last: 26,225 +490, +1.91%, so far today (mid-Monday)

4vSfKRB.gif

: 10-yr : 5yrW : 2yrD : 6mo : 10d /

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: 2yrD : 6mo : 10d /

UAPT4bS.gif

HK Property/ Centa-City Leading Index: 188.22 : -0.11% since last week, -0.38% vs Prev. Mo.

6Yx42Lg.png

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Hang Lung Group... is jumping today, & almost catching up with China stocks

HK-2823 v.HK10 ... 10d : flip : / Last: Hk2823: $14.56 +0.22 +1.53% / $19.98 +0.44, +2.25% (xx%)

WdaWlCH.gif

But not in the mid- term perspective

HK-2823 v.HK10 ... 6mo : flip : / A 25%+ Gap !!!

5SYePN4.gif

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I bought Stock puts two days ago

But was too busy (closing a property sale) to post about it here

This morning I got up, and saw the SMACKDOWN. SP500 : - 2.5%

ECsLiAGWwAERtGM?format=jpg&name=small
TRADE WAR ESCALATES
STOCKS FREAK
TRUMP CALLS XI ENEMY
NKOREA LAUNCHES ANOTHER ONE

 

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BOUGHT Puts again on Wed. & Thursday - Here is why...

(this investment in SPY puts, TZA & FAZ Calls got me on the right side of the Market BEFORE Friday's big drop)

The recent rally was reflected in a pullback in TZA & FAZ to support levels, ie 21d MA on wed/thi

BEAR Side: TZA & FAZ ... Jul.2017-toDate : fr.May2018 : Apr'19 / wed cl. xx / thu cl. xx

rwHfXNI.gif

Above was Wed./Thu when I put on my hedges.

Below is what happened next / in shorter time horizon... fr.May2018 : Apr'19 / wed cl. xx / thu cl. xx

rpa5sJD.gif

Stock rally ran out of gas - Low volume prior to the high vol. drop ... 3 mos

lmIs3bG.gif

So what happened Friday? ... update chart - Note heavy Volume

7l9Bmq4.gif

Sym. : Close : change, Pct. : Day-Low -High : YrHigh: Fr.Yr.H(L)
SOXX 196.81: - 9.08, - 4.41%: 196.25-204.65 : 220.82 : - 10.9 % :
SPY -: 284.85: - 7.51, - 2.57%: 283.46-292.76 : 302.23 : - 5.75 % :
IWM : 145.43: - 4.80, - 3.07%: 144.93-150.11 : 173.39 : - 20.4 % :
TNA-: $49.55: - 4.95, - 9.08%: $49.03-$54.63 : $97.12 : - 49.0 % :
TZA-: $54.44: +4.55, +9.12%: $49.78-$54.94 : $39.02 : +39.5 % :
FAZ-: $40.56: +2.59, +6.82%: $37.77-$41.16 : $34.29 : +18.3 % :
VIX-: %19.87: +3.19, +19.1%: 16.04 -21.07% : %11.03 : +80.1 % :
OPTions:
s294p 10.59: +4.52, +74.5%:
F36C: $4.50: +1.72, +61.9%:
T47C: $8.00: +3.95, +97.5%:
T48C: $6.30: +2.30, +57.5%:
(Spy294p-9/20/19, Faz36C-9/20/19, Tza47C-9/20/19, Tza48C-9/27/19)
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TZA. FAZ, VIX ... update / Individually: TZA:$54.44, FAZ:$40.56, VIX:$19.87

2WUwPIh.gif

IWM vs. SOXX, SPY ... fr. May-2018 : / $

MUBCupz.gif

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GOLD going up

GLD ... update : GDX : gdxj / $144.17 x xx = $1526

glnFI5R.gif

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I have the same upwards channel on my gold chart. It would still surprise me if gold retraces to 1300 over the next two years. How would that even be possible?

Would a sudden contraction by the Fed do this? Wouldn't that destroy the economy? Maybe the Fed will do this to get revenge on Trump and make sure he isn't reelected.

EDIT: based on these concerns I have sold off 1/3 of my physical gold holding.

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PHILIPPINES STOCKS - a Right Shoulder may be in place

PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... update / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87, -1.62%

9Asz0gk.gif

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TZA closed Tuesday at $55 (+4.5%)

It could go a little higher ($57 ?)... Or a lot higher ($68 & beyond)

TZA / 3x Bear on IWM/ Russell 2000... update / Last :$55.00 +2.38, +4.52%/ IWM: $144.85 : Faz :

5sBdsS5.gif

I may take a portion of my TZA calls "off the table" if/when the TZA hits $57, and hold the rest for a deeper

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CHINA's BANKS are in  trouble / Crisis Dead ahead ??

Exiled Chinese Billionaire's Accusations of China (w/ Guo Wengui & Kyle Bass) >

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cwXifDaCjE

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China May be the trigger... soon

But not today - with market so strong, up about 1%

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Gold Price Predictions from Wall Street – $2,000 (or higher) as Early as Next Year

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