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DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2019 Trading - v.127

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Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 127th Month = Over 10 years.

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)

GjtfFlk.jpg

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Featured Video (coming)

================

DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2019 Trading - v.127

FRT/ Fed Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : GLD-SPY : FRTw/SLV : vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

h8Vrpo1.gif

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term: tny_au_en_euoz_2.gif

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

XMoTw3m.png

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

WwD9kqI.png

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE : w/OIH :

Oil or Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

TGHRdh3.gif

: w/OIH :

fW0LMcY.gif

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

el7816f.gif

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

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Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l

2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
Mar
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
29: 293.87 +0.46: 57.2M: 13.11 : 20.84 - 0.46: 120.83 - 0.54 4.47M: 1281.4 $63.50 : $97.86 - 0.15: 123.02 - 0.19/ 00, 071: 000, 640
30: 294.02 +0.15: 00.0M: 13.12 : 20.89 +0.05: 121.20 +0.37 0.00M: 1286.7 $63.91 : $97.53 - 0.33: 123.65 +0.63/ 00, 074: 000, 680
MAY
30: 279.03 +0.76: 82.1M: 17.30 : 20.77+0.45 : 121.69 +0.82 7.76M: 1292.4 $56.59: $98.17 +0.03: 130.20 +1.11/ 00, 092: 000, 1000
31: 275.27 - 3.76: 86.9M: 18.71 : 21.59 +0.82 : 123.33 +1.64 15.4M: 1311.1 $53.50: $97.61 -0.56: 131.83 +1.63/ 02, 094: 047, 1047

June
26: 290.47 - 0.29: 51.6M: 16.21: 25.52 -0.11: 132.97 - 1.23 12.0M: 1000.0 $00.00: $96.27 - 0.02: 131.97 -0.85/
27:  291.50 +1.03 00.0M: 15.82:
28: 293.00 +1.50: 59.4M: 15.08: 25.56 +0.00: 133.20 -0.00 00.0M: 1000.0 $00.00:  $96.20 -0.00: 132.55 +0.00/ 00,060: 000, 720
July
29: 301.46 - 0.55: 38.1M: 12.83: 27.77 +0.49: 134.53 +0.89 9.16M: 1420.0 $00.00: $98.05 +0.00: 131.51 +0.00/
30: 300.72 - 0.74: 45.8M: 13.94: 27.83 +0.06: 134.98 +0.45 9.45M: 1442.0 $00.00: $98.06 +0.01: 131.83 +0.32/
31: 297.43 - 3.29: 104.M: 16.12 : 26.50 - 1.33: 133.21 - 1.77 18.8M: 1437.8 $58.58: $98.82 +0.76: 132.89 +1.06/

AUG
01: 294.84 - 2.59: 143.M: 17.87 : 27.85 +1.35: 136.41 +3.20 27.7M: 1432.4 $53.95: $98.34 -0.48: 135.26 +2.63/
02: 292.62 - 2.22: 117.M : 17.61 :  27.77 - 0.08: 135.89 -0.52 13.8M: 1557.5 $55.66: $97.52 -0.82: 136.51 +0.25/
05: 283.82 - 8.80: 179.M: 24.59 : 28.60 +0.83: 137.79 +1.90 17.5M: 1476.5 $54.97: $97.35 -0.17: 138.87 +2.36/
06: 287.80 +3.98: 121.M: 19.76 : 28.67 +0.07: 138.91 +1.12 9.47M: 1484.2 $53.63: $97.70 +0.35: 139.98 +1.11/
07: 287.97 +0.17: 000.M: 19.49 : 29.26 +0.59: 141.02 +1.09 0.00M: 1519.6 $51.09: $97.62 - 0.08: 140.03 +0.05/
08: 293.62 +5.65: 87.7M: 16.91 : 29.77 +0.51: 141.73 +0.71 13.1M: 1509.5 $52.54: $97.56 - 0.06: 140.33 +0.30/
09: 291.62 - 2.00: 00.0M: 21.09 : 29.36 - 0.41: 141.26 - 0.37 00.0M: 1508.5 $54.50: $97.38 - 0.19: 140.05 - 0.28/
12: 288.07 - 3.55: 65.2M: 21.14 : 29.00 - 0.36: 142.63 +1.37 14.9M: 1517.2 $54.93: $97.58 +0.20: 142.97 +2.92/
13: 292.55 +4.48: 94.8M: 17.52 : 28.45 - 0.55: 141.78 - 0,85 29.9M: 1518.0 $00.00: $97.78 - 0.03: 142.48 - 0.49/
14: 283.90 - 4.65: 000.M: 22.10 : 28.41 - 0.04: 142.75 +0.97 00.0M: 1527.8 $55.23: $98.15 +0.37: 145.69 +3.21/
15: 284.65 +0.75: 102.M: 21.18 : 28.73 +0.32: 143.70 +0.95 13.5M: 1531.2 $54.57: $98.22 +0.07: 147.31 +1.62/
16: 288.85 +4.20: 85.8M: 18.47 : 28.28 - 0.45: 142.78 - 0.92 00.0M: 1523.6 $54.81: $98.34 +0.12: 146.13 - 1.28/
19: 292.33 +3.40: 53.6M: 16.88 : 27.93 - 0.35: 141.11 - 1.67 10.6M:  1511.6 $56.14: $98.30 - 0.04: 144.04 -2.09/ 00, 36; 00, 0360
20: 290.09 -2.24: 00.0M:  17.50 : 28.85 +0.92: 142.21 +1.10 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00: $98.30 +0.00: 145.53 +0.49/
21: 292.45 +2.36: 49.7M: 15.80 : 28.70 - 0.15: 141.76 - 0.45 8.12M: 1515.7 $55.68: $98.25 - 0.05: 144.56 - 0.97/
22: 292.36 - 0.09: 51.7M:  16.68 : 28.49 -0.21: 141.40 - 0.26 6.85M: 1508.0 $55.30: $98.17 - 0.09: 143.60 - 0.96/
23: 284.85 - 7.51: 149.M: 19.87 : 29.64 +1.15: 144.17 - 0.23 00.0M: 1537.6 $54.17: $98.08 - 0.09: 145.96 +2.36/
26: 288.00 +3.15: 72.6M: 19.32 : 29.64 Unch: 144.19 +0.02 12.2M: 1537.2 $53.64: $97.96 - 0.12: 145.37 - 0.59/
27: 286.87 - 1.13: 68.3M: 20.31 : 30.56 +0.92: 145.57 +1.38 12.9M: 1000.0 $00.00: $98.06 +0.10:
28: 288.89 +2.02 00.0M:  19.35 : 30.44 - 0.12: 145.16 - 0.41 00.0M: 1549.1 $55.78: $98.51 +0.45: 147.80 +0.00/
29: 292.58 +3.69: 58.0M: 17.88 : 29.66 - 0.75: 144.12 - 1.04 14.8M: 1536.9 $56.71: $98.44 - 0.07: 147.24 - 0.56/ 00, 50: 000, 435
30: 292.45 - 0.13: 63.0M: 18.98 : 29.86 +0.20: 143.75 -0.37 9.64M: 1529.4 $55.10: $98.81 +0.47: 147.28 +0.04

==

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Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

A month ago, I said:

"Many Gold shares are COILED & Ready to spring - if the Dollar slides below $97"

But the USD is still over $97, while Gold has jumped over $1300 again. This looks good

idx24_usd_en_2.gif  : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : 2yr : DXY: $97.61+1.44, EUR: $1.1200 -0.027, GBP: $1.264, CAD: $0.738, AUD: $0.694, PHP: 52.15 (from last mo.)

5nh96TC.gif

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba : GDXJ: $29.53 +1.03 , OIH: $13.08 -0.36, USO: $11.10 -0.66

0hjPbHr.gif

FXFX : 2017-mid'19 :

oPsDXSA.gif

Group #1 : update : old chartJNUG ($7.55 -22.6%), UGLD ($96.39 +1.84%), GDXJ ($29.53 -7.11%) - from last month

LQnx6Cw.gif

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.49 -0.85%), CCO.t ($13.64 -12.3%), MUX.t ($1.82 -9.91%)

ZWEPhpH.gif

OIH ($13.08 -27.3%) vs. Drillers: HAL ($21.29 -31.3%), MDR ($6.04 -27.8%), ESV ($8.37 -48.1%)

d1FDdaC.gif

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Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

=== 

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 : 

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

nVzEZ3p.gif

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

9S1H6rx.gif

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

nyB6fg2.gif

SPX ... 10-yr

3OBqgrF.gif

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

jdfaUBq.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

sWEYfy8.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

rpAk3nN.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

uPTblbm.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

3exBC6r.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

4yeFpcu.gif

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

OdgKj01.gif

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

eavKQ45.gif

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

jQ65ScB.gif

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new, 

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BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2019: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29
2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep .7, +Dec.3, /
2018 : -Jan.4, +Jan.17
2019 : +Jan.18, +Apr.17, -May29, -Aug28, +Oct.9, -Dec3

bVz4z2b.gif

Model dates: 2019 : 2018 : 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :
2019-Bradley-Siderograph.png
===
Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2019 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

5hFlqdd.gif

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2019 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

wyXnzph.gif

Gold-Bradley-Siderograph-2019-Turn-Dates

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !

fguOGn7.gif

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

wDu3Hxx.gif

NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

zbFlN2v.gif

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

utFi6fa.png

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Gas down, Oil down... OIH making new lows (AGAIN! early Aug.)

1vMnFlG.png

WTI crude

G5ZWnDF.png

OIH / Oil Service

Ccj5YSq.png

"Oil Service stocks are still under pressure" - I said May 2nd

HAL, etc ... update : 10d / Last: $21?

O2cpbsk.gif

Sym. 31may: 01may: -Chg. -Pct%: PER : Yield :
HAL: $21.29: $27.59 -6.30 -22.8%:10.6: 3.38%
SLB:  $34.69: $41.37 -6.68, -16.1%: 23.8: 5.77%
Bhge $21.41: $23.55 -2.14, -9.09%: 66.9: 3.36%
OIH : $13.08: $16.14 -3.06, -19.0%: N/ A: 2.29%
XLE : $58.77: $64.79 -6.02. -9.29%: N/ A: 3.52%
CNQ: $26.99: $28.94 -1.95, -6.74%: 14.5: 4.13%
CHK: $ 1.92 : $ 2.83 -0.91, -32.2%: 4.43: 0.00%
SWN: $ 3.52 : $  3.87 -0.25, -6.46%: 2.14: 0.00%
USO: $11.10 : $13.22 -2.12, -16.0%: ==
WTI: $53.50: $63.60 -10.1,-15.9%: ==
NGas $ 2.45: $2.62: - 0.17, -6.49%:
NG/wt r-4.6%: r-4.1%: :

Ratio: NatGas to-WTI Crude - @ r-4.12% - Buy NatGas versus Oil?

IgoGQPR.png

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GOLD "knocked on that Ceiling" - of  "the $1350 to $1370 area", then  broke out to a recent high of $14---

GOLD

xx 

=== (as reported last month) ===

Gold put in a strong performance today with the St. Louis Fed president presentingmike_1-636952019002018821.jpg a case for cutting rates.

St. Louis Fed president James Bullard helped light a fire under gold today, Yapping About Too Little Inflation and the Need for Rate Cuts.

Technically speaking, the $1350 to $1370 area has been one tough nut for gold to crack.

On a weekly chart, gold has failed in this area five or six times, depending on how one counts.

mike_2-636952019422813623.jpg

Gold fell from $850 an ounce in 1980 to $262 an ounce in in 1999 with inflation every step of the way.

People believed Greenspan, the great "maestro" had everything under control. It was an illusion.

Faith in central banks is about to be tested again.

Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29795842#gfA3VEXYpChAbyD6.99

Edited by drbubb

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FAILED after small breakout? SPX high was on July ??


Index : Target?: Close +change, +pct.: Day-High: Year-H : Below-YrH
SP500 : $3,000: 2995.82  +22.8,+0.77%: 2995.84: 2995.84: Record H!
DJIA- : 27,000?: 26,966.  +179. ,+0.67%: 26,966. :  26,966. :  Record H!
IWM - : $174.0  : $156.26 +1.11,+0.72%:  156.34 :  173.39  : - 9.88 %
RUT - : $1,740. : 1572.12 +11.6,+0.74%: 1572.19: 1742.09: - 9.76 %
SOXX- : $220.0: $199.95 - 0.92 ,-0.46%:  200.99 :   218.00 : - 8.83 %
XLF - : $ 30.00 : $ 28.08  +0.22, +0.79%:  $28.09 :   $29.07 : - 3.41 %

CHARTS - note how NARROW the New Highs are

SP500 : $3,000: 2995.82  +22.8,+0.77%: 2995.84: 2995.84: Record H!
haSa2Ei.gif

DJIA- : 27,000?: 26,966.  +179. ,+0.67%: 26,966. : 26,966. : Record H!
UE1dplU.gif

IWM - : =====> : $156.26 +1.11,+0.72%: 156.34 :  173.39  : - 9.88 %
SUcgNN8.gif

SOXX- =====> : $199.95 - 0.92 ,-0.46%:  200.99 :   218.00 : - 8.83 %
F1tWhza.gif

XLF - : =====> : $ 28.08  +0.22, +0.79%:  $28.09 :   $29.07 : - 3.41 %
WZOVpbc.gif

FAZ vs-TZA . update :  FAZ $36.09 (yrL-H:$36.09-84.95)/ TZA $44.94 (yrL-H:$39.02-93.45)

YWOcwLj.gif

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SLIDING NOW - After a July XX peak... Meanwhile, Gold may be breaking out

==== :  Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 :  05/03 :  05/31 :  07/03 :  08/02 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 : 1311.1 : 1420.9 : 1457.5 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.51 : 124.50 : 121.88 : 120.65 : 123.33 : 133.63 : 137.79 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 249.92 : 270.06 : 280.42 : 294.03 : 275.57 : 298.80 : 292.62 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2506.8 : 2706.5 : 2803.7 : 2945.6 : 2752.7 : 2995.8 : 2932.1 :
S/AU: 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 195.6% : 204.7% : 215.8% : 229.9%: 210.0%: 210.8%: 201.1%:
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $45.41 : $55.26 : $55.80 : $61.94 : $53.50 : $57.34 : $55.66 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $57.35: $64.89 : $66.48: $64.25: $58.78 : $63.00 : $60.40 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9 % : $14.03: $17.22 : $17.42: $16.34: $13.12 : $14.48 : $12.98 :

OI/X :  44.3% :  36.1 % : ====== : 24.46%: 26.54%: 26.20%: 25.43%: 22.32%: 22.98%: 21.49% :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.940 : $2.734 : $2.859 : $2.570 : $2.452 : $2.290 : $2.120 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $2.630 : $2.773 : $2.932 : $2.819 : $2 .640 : $2.675 : $2.572 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : -------> 895.00 : 917.75 : 911.50 : 842.25 : 878.00? : 908.75 : 868.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 503.25 : 524.25 : 457.28 : 438.00 : 502.70 : 514.00 : 490.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 375.00 : 378.25 : 373.00 : 370.75 : 426.70 : 441.25 : 409.50 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 169.80 : 180.55 : 181.50 : 181.77 : 175.35 : 179.08 : 171.49 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06% : $16.91: $16.93 : $16.45: $16.03: $16.61 : $16.69 : $15.73 :
D/crb: 10.37%: 9.67 % : ====== :  r9.96%: R9.38%: r9.06% : r8.82% : r9.10% : r9.32% : r9.17% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14% : R3.391 : R3.833 : r4.041 : R4.008 : R3.539 : R3.775 : r3.840 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $96.16 : $95.62 : $96.45 : $97.26 : $97.61 : $96.33 : $97.52 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.51 : 120.96 : 118.66 : 123.66 : 131.83 : 134.21 : 136.51 :
=== :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 : 1311.1 : 1420.9 : 1457.5 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ======:  r1.61E : R1.617 : R1.681 : R1.730 : R1.748  : r1.78.e : r1. ?? :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 795.8E : 817.40 : 772.46 : 740.82 : 750.0E : 800.0E :

WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $19.53 : $21.10 : $21.38 : $20.86 : $22.10 : $23.94 : $26.12 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : $22.57 : $21.70 : $20.26 : $21.59 : $25.65 : $27.57 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : + 8.18% : $30.22 : $32.84 : $31.44: $28.41 : $29.53 : $34.84 : $39.43 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : $26.88 : $26.01 : $23.80 : $23.05 : $26.59 : $27.64 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : r1.723 : R1.802 : R1.832 : R1.705 : R1.689 : R1.856 : R1.817 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : $14.92 : $14.20 : $13.96 : $13.65 : $14.32 : $15.21 :
Silver: 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 15.540: 15.930 : 15.260 : 14.980 : 14.570 : 15.340 : 16.270 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.33 : +81.4% : $25.99 : $27.35 : $26.74 : $31.78 : $31.00 : $32.68 : $31.34 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $39.06 : $42.76 : $42.49 : $44.22 : $40.71 : $43.23 : $40.55 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 2494.0 : 2618.2 : 2994.0 : 3078.3 : 2898.7 : 3005.4 : 2821.5 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7476.0 : 8121.9 : 7641.8 : 7968.0 : 7970.0 : 8064.9 : 7890.1 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $23.82 : $26.05 : $26.69 : $28.07 : $26.01 : $28.08 : $27.76 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 133.90 : 149.18 : 158.24 : 160.53 : 145.86 : 156.26 : 152.58 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 17.79% : 17.46%: 16.87% : 17.49% : 17.83%: 17.97%: 18.19% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $3,770 :  $3,435 : $3,818 : $5,712 : $8,350 : 10,250: 10,627:

===== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 :  05/03 :  05/31 :  07/03 :  08/02 :
 

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BIG DROP (-3%) in SPX yesterday

Took profits on (remaining) Shorts yesterday; Was I too early?

SPX. ... update / Last: 2844.74 - 87,31, -2.98%

fGHspRh.gif

VIX. ... update / Last: 24.59 +6.98, +39.64%

KGPoZ01.gif

Or will we get a decent bounce rally now?

Looks like it is deeply oversold

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FTSE starting Rally?

UKX, SPX, etc ... VIX Tza: DAX world: UKus 2 : / Last :

JinnhGp.gif

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USO/ US Oil etf looks to be a Leading Bellwether.

ZYa4HR2.png

On Tuesday, USO slid tuesday 2% to $11.14, & may slide to LO.Yr at $9.23.

USO-etc ... ALL : from 2001 Jan.2007 : 7/2012 : 1/2014 : fr. 2015 : 1/2016 : 10d /

SiXHD3B.gif

: 1/2016 :

D2KxB6T.gif

BTU / Peabody Coal ... fr. 1/2016 : $17.89 - 0.89% / $11.14 = r-00% -- Yield: 3.13%; PER: 4.22; EV/ebit: 0.00

wT5ZHyj.gif

HAL / Halliburton ... fr, 1/2016 : $19.95 - 1.77% / $11.14 = r-00% -- Yield: 3.61%; PER: 13.12; EV/ebit: 0.00

N2tztQE.gif

MUR / Murphy Oil ... fr. 1/2016 : $22.05 - 2.35% / $11.14 = r-00% -- Yield: 4.54%; PER: 13.59; EV/ebit: 0.00

w7trdtr.gif

SLB / Schlumberger ... fr, 1/2016 : $35.46 - 1.47% / $11.14 = r-00% -- Yield: 5.64%; PER: 23.64; EV/ebit: 0.00

cJyPY61.gif

OTH / Other Stock ... fr, 1/2016 : $00.00 - 0.00% / $00.00 = r-00% -- Yield: 0.00%

==

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On a day like today, seems quite quiet. Even allowing for summer holiday. I think the trends will continue for at least another week.

Also the breakdown in crude seems significant. It broke out of the pinch prematurely, and seems like something big on the geopolitical front is imminent...

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I used the slide after the Opening GAP down to buy some calls on Energy stocks

USO/ US Oil etf : $10.84 - 0.30, -2.69% O: 10.81 / H: 10.89 L: 10.49.  closed near Hi-Day

Larry Pesavento thinks we are near at/near an important Low in NatGas

> https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/trade-what-you-see/trade-what-you-see-08-06-19-j2miW6wLFpa/

BOUGHT CALLS on: SLB, MUR, RRC … also, non-energy: FCX, FXI

Sector Update: Energy Giants Decline Pre-Market Wednesday

09:25 AM EDT, 08/07/2019 (MT Newswires) -- Top Energy Stocks:

XOM: -1.28%

CVX: -1.11%

COP: -1.81%

SLB: -1.95%

OXY: -1.22%

Energy giants were declining pre-market Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for September delivery was down $1.08 at $52.55 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global benchmark Brent crude October contract lost $1.12 to $57.82 per barrel and September natural gas futures were flat at $2.11 per 1 million BTU. Among energy-related ETFs, the United States Oil Fund was down 2.60%, while the United States Natural Gas fund was 0.55% higher.

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SELLING DOWN my shares in GCM - but keeping the warrants (a lot!)

Sold almost all shares since the recent breakout

GCM.t / Gran Colombian Gold ... update / Last: C$5.42

t3RvBrh.gif

==

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Is China Hoarding Food, Gold And Other Commodities In Anticipation Of A Global Collapse?

Does China believe that we are on the verge of a major global crisis?  The communist Chinese government has always been very big into planning, and it appears that they have decided that now is the time to hoard food, gold and other commodities...

xx

xx

/ 2 /

Is This Stock Market Correction Forecasting Disaster?

x

 

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"The first guy to ever die of Suicide in a NY jail" - very very suspcious

"Every single system breaks down at the same time"

Jeffrey Epstein’s Death is a Crisis!  (Is the Law crumbling?)

"People don't believe it... And why should they?"

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Oil stocks - I keep looking for the Low

XOP / S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ... All-Data : 5yr / Last: $22.29 - 0.21,

hAqGOK9.gif

: 5yr /

qAak1fO.gif

==

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Keep waiting for the Oil low myself, yo7 would think with all the ratcheting up with Iran it won’t be far away?

Sold a couple of  goldies last 48 hours to take profits in ROXG and Small batch of SSP I bought.

Curious Dr B, don’t think you have commented on BTC lately or alternative currencies, what your current view? I’ve always kept well away but just interested on your view point if you have time.

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9 hours ago, jerpy said:

Keep waiting for the Oil low myself, yo7 would think with all the ratcheting up with Iran it won’t be far away?

Another Look at some Long term charts - seems like another drop of perhaps 1-3% is needed

-- thinking the New Technologies may be driving this drop.

Remember the Rothschild family announced 3-5 years ago they were exiting their Oil Investments 

XOM / Exxon Mobile ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr / Last: $69.63 -0.49%, Yield: 5.00%. PER: 16.8 (LoYr: $64.65, 7.7% Off)

EXwYXmV.gif

XLE / all-data : 10yr : 5yr / Last: $58.40 -1.18%, Yield: 3.65%. PER: N/A (LoYr: $53.36, 9.4% Off)

HB0LtVB.gif

XLE vs. USO : 4yr : fr. 8.12.2015 : / Ratio: $58.40 / $11.36 = 514%

J3CyeCu.gif

RATIO :

Wc5DYq1.png

==

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" Curious Dr B, don’t think you have commented on BTC lately or alternative currencies, what your current view?

I’ve always kept well away but just interested on your view point if you have time. "  - Jerpy

I still have mine, and it has risen a lot from the low

I think it could be threatened by innovations... like Libra Coin

>

FB's Libra Coin - A new type of "stable" currency basket

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GOLD Targets

Why a $2,000 Gold Price is in the Cards

 

Charles Nenner - New Gold Bull Market $2,500 at Least (#1)

/ 3 /

Gold Price Being Manipulated, Should Be $2,900 – Keiser UNCENSORED (Part 2)

 

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With Yields Sinking Everywhere, Gold Just Hit New All-Time Highs…

“It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative,” Joachim Fels, PIMCO’s global economic advisor, warned investors last week. “Whenever the world economy next goes into hibernation, U.S. Treasuries—which many investors view as the ultimate ‘safe haven’ apart from gold—may be no exception to the negative yield phenomenon.”

Fels seems not to be the only investor with this idea, judging by the increased demand for gold.

The price of the yellow metal had its best week in nearly two months as the total value of negative-yielding debt around the world touched a new record of $15 trillion. With the nominal yield on the 10-year Treasury having fallen below 2 percent—and just shy of 0 percent on an inflation-adjusted basis—gold surged above $1,500 an ounce in U.S. dollars (USD) for the first time since September 2013.

It also hit historic all-time highs when priced in a number of other world currencies, including the British pound, Russian ruble and Indian rupee. Last week, the central bank of India, along with those in New Zealand and Thailand, surprised markets by cutting rates more than expected, adding to fears that an economic slowdown is imminent.

On Wednesday, gold’s performance for 2019 caught up with and surpassed that of the stock market.
 

image: https://stockhouse.com/getattachment/d9fc1211-b2c5-4b5e-85b0-d997c5946da6/F2.jpg

F2.jpg

Analysts at Goldman Sachs now say that $1,500 is only the beginning, and that we could see $1,600-an-ounce gold within the next six months
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2019/08/12/with-yields-sinking-everywhere-gold-just-hit-new-all-time-highs#1m2BEVhQ9Ss47L8u.99

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