Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
zoomraker

STOCKS: Maybe it is different this time?

Recommended Posts

STOCKS: Maybe it is different this time?

Looking at the S&P500 it seems there was an acceleration in the rate of growth around 1983.  Reading the bears the S&P is due to crash 50% every week because "stock markets always correct etc" However I think there could be genuine reasons it really is different this time.

1.  low interest rates forever - politicians would rather see currency destroyed than repricing of assets in which they and the system are heavily invested.

2. demographic change -  there is essentially a commitment in all western nations among the political class to continue to bring in cheap workers.

3. importation of consumers - every extra person is more profit because it is an  extra person who needs housing, feeding, clothing etc

4. automation - the cost of manufacturing goods will approach zero after raw materials - this will lead to a massive growth in profitability for corporations.

5. efficiencies generated by big data  (still thinking about this)

6. coming transportation efficiencies -  networked vehicles talking to each other with autopilot will probably squeeze another 30 to 50% out of current transport infrastructure.   Electric vehicles will also become much cheaper to manufacture and maintain than IC vehicles.  Opportunity for almost entirely modular vehicle design using off the shelf parts shared between manufacturers.  Massive economies of scale possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes. Maybe

But "different this time" are dangerous words... as you know

welcome back. btw.  U R well?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The encumbent financial overlords will do everything necessary to maintain their hegemony. As Draghi said, whatever it takes, "believe me it will be enough".

Inflation distorts prices. The Fed is about to begin a year long period of inflation which will keep the S&P at all-time highs. This is bad for the US economy in the long run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not buying industrials or tech stocks, because for me the reason for doing so would be to hedge against inflation, not because stocks are undervalued.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

unless banksters:

grew a soul

made an unbreakable pledge never to sell things for more than they are worth

and swapped their coke addictions for Sodium Pentothal

Since the last time

very likely not different this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best thing to do IMO is to focus on long-term value like housing or banking stocks. We know that banks will be bailed out.

If you want a bargain, how about Deutsche Bank stock?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, hector said:

If you want a bargain, how about Deutsche Bank stock?

banks may be.

shareholders never.

I made that mistake on nrk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FAILED just below Targets? on the day before July 4th Holiday


Index : Target?: Close +change, +pct.: Day-High: Year-H : Below-YrH
SP500 : $3,000: 2995.82  +22.8,+0.77%: 2995.84: 2995.84: Record H!
DJIA- : 27,000?: 26,966.  +179. ,+0.67%: 26,966. :  26,966. :  Record H!
IWM - : $174.0  : $156.26 +1.11,+0.72%:  156.34 :  173.39  : - 9.88 %
RUT - : $1,740. : 1572.12 +11.6,+0.74%: 1572.19: 1742.09: - 9.76 %
SOXX- : $220.0: $199.95 - 0.92 ,-0.46%:  200.99 :   218.00 : - 8.83 %
XLF - : $ 30.00 : $ 28.08  +0.22, +0.79%:  $28.09 :   $29.07 : - 3.41 %

CHARTS - note how NARROW the New Highs are

SP500 : $3,000: 2995.82  +22.8,+0.77%: 2995.84: 2995.84: Record H!
haSa2Ei.gif

DJIA- : 27,000?: 26,966.  +179. ,+0.67%: 26,966. : 26,966. : Record H!
UE1dplU.gif

IWM - : =====> : $156.26 +1.11,+0.72%: 156.34 :  173.39  : - 9.88 %
SUcgNN8.gif

SOXX- =====> : $199.95 - 0.92 ,-0.46%:  200.99 :   218.00 : - 8.83 %
F1tWhza.gif

XLF - : =====> : $ 28.08  +0.22, +0.79%:  $28.09 :   $29.07 : - 3.41 %
WZOVpbc.gif

FAZ vs-TZA . update :  FAZ $36.09 (yrL-H:$36.09-84.95)/ TZA $44.94 (yrL-H:$39.02-93.45)

YWOcwLj.gif

ABOUT these charts

I would like to explain some things about what these charts are showing:

1. Parallel Lines

I find that most price action on a chart can usually be explained, or defined within parallel lines, and I try to identify what those parallel lines look like.  Obviously you want to BUY on or near the bottom of the range and SELL near the top./

2. Momentum

When momentum is strong and all indices are moving up together with strong volume, the tendency is for the move to continue in the same direction.  Before a change in trend, they were often be  a loss of momentum, where a smaller number of stocks will be participating in the move.  Thus, the Russell index (RUT, & IWM) of 2000 stocks may lose momentum before, the S&P 500 (SPX), or Dow 30 stocks (DJIA) loses momenttum.  Recently, we have seen IWN/RUT weakening while SPX & DJIA continue to make new highs.  SOXX is another bellwether which may peak out BEFORE SPX & DJIA. It can often lead those indices by a day or two

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I bought some SPY puts yesterday, and Calls on FAZ

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, drbubb said:

DJIA- : 27,000?: 26,966.  +179. ,+0.67%: 26,966. : 26,966. : Record H!
UE1dplU.gif

Ouch. someones been going balls deep in short interest on the DJIA for the last 12 months. I see at least three enormous trades in there. 

did the fed stop being bullish? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×