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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - June 2019 Trading - v.125

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The first Fed cut this year should trigger the huge breakout. Should arrive in July or latest September.

===== (following added in edit by Dr.B):

TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

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Fed to Tank Dollar. Gold May Rally Above $3750 Before December

Fed to Tank Dollar. Gold May Rally Above $3750 Before December 2019 -  dobson777a  Published on 11 Jun 2019  References 
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlin... Fed is out...read more

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Could Equinox Gold make a bid for Gran Colombia?

EQX vs-GCM ... update : 10d / Last: C$1.16 / C$3.99 = R-25%

yaRano4.gif

CEO Ross Beatty will visit Gran Colombia's mine.

Beatty is a darling of Bay Street and Wall Street to, so he might get a much higher valuation for GCM's world class assets

"It's a BUYER's Market (in Gold assets) Right Now!," says Beatty

Ross Beaty: Preparing Equinox Gold for Next Run

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DFHykMyCqo

.
...only speculation right now, partner for Marmato or other projects of GCM? Iacono said in his last interview, if the price is right we could sell the company,

we are here to earn money. Lets see... in every case should be good for the share price.
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.gcm&postid=29816690#R9XQcZoqYgtLivTP.99

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Old Notes - Now this... in Hong Kong

HK Safe?
+ Pressure on the HKD-USD peg
+ Looking at the HKMA Exchange fund it is clear that money has been leaving HK. Since 2016 the fund has gone from $55bn to $7bn
+ HK economy tied to China, while HKD is tied to USD
+ Leverage in HK-China system has reached unprecedented level. China, 400%. HK: 900% of GDP
+ China is using more & more debt to keep its rapid growth going. Now Over 6 units debt for each unit GDP
+ HK grew at the slowest rate in 10 years during Q1
+ Meantime, China defaults hit a record, 3.4X the same period in 2018
+ “China Manufacturing is falling off a cliff”
====

'Blatant, Organized Riot': Hong Kong Protest Descends Into Violence, Police Fire Tear Gas And Rubber Bullets At Crowds Storming Government HQ

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The "ALL ENERGY" chart has broken down - Where is the Low?

All Energy ... fr. mid-June.2018 / USO: $10.64, NGas: $0.0235, U.t: C$4.32, URA: $11.91, BTU: $22.52

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==

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Norway To Okay $1-Trillion Wealth Fund’s Plan To Dump Oil Stocks

9dc63a3e4a2c92fefb2fb029a7617835.jpg

Norway’s Parliament is expected to approve later on Wednesday plans by the government’s US$1-trillion fund—the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund—to divest from oil and gas exploration companies in a landmark decision that could impact future investor attitude toward fossil fuels.

After months of deliberations, Norway’s government proposed in March that the Government Pension Fund Global, as the so-called ‘oil fund’ is officially known, divest from 134 companiesclassified by the index provider FTSE Russell as belonging to the exploration and production subsector. As at the end of 2018, the Norwegian fund held stakes in E&P companies—under FTSE Russell’s classification for such—with an approximate value of US$7.6 billion (66 billion Norwegian crowns). This corresponds to 1.2 percent of the fund’s holdings in equities.

The move by the fund, which has amassed its vast wealth on the back of Norway’s oil and gas revenues, comes at a time when investors are increasingly pressing major oil companies to start taking climate change seriously and to prepare their business portfolios for a world of peak oil demand, whenever that may come.

.  . . Norway, however, is motivating its decision with financial reasons, aiming to cut exposure to the oil price risk. More importantly, the fund will not be divesting from any of the integrated Big Oil firms.

According to Bloomberg, there is broad support in the Norwegian Parliament to approve today changes to the investment criteria of the sovereign wealth fund, including dumping pure exploration and production oil companies and tightening the rules for investing in coal.

According to Germany-based environment and human rights NGO Urgewald, the Norwegian Parliament is expected to vote in favor of the government’s proposal to tighten the coal exclusion criteria of the sovereign fund.

The more stringent criteria expected to be passed by Parliament are “all companies which are operating over 10 GW of coal-fired capacity or producing over 20 million tons of coal annually will be blacklisted by the Norwegian Government Pension Fund.” This would affect eight major companies, including Glencore, Anglo American, Enel, RWE, and BHP Billiton, according to research from NGOs Urgewald and Framtiden i våre hender (Future in our hands).

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NatGas got down to $2.31

9sAWkIp.png

Why Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is betting big on natural gas

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones knows a winner when he sees one.

Jones, who made a $140 million bet on the Cowboys franchise 30 years ago (today the team is worth almost $5 billion, according to Forbes) is now looking to do the same thing in the struggling natural gas sector.

Jones-controlled Comstock Resources is acquiring rival Covey Park Energy in a $2.2 billion deal, with the Dallas businessman putting up $475 million of his own money toward the deal. The move is a big bet on what may be this century’s most important global commodity, natural gas.

Jones, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, said that “I believe in natural gas in a big way, I don’t know of any individuals…that have put the kind of money out as I’ve put in this thing.”

Oh, sure you might say that the natural gas sector is beaten and battered, and its best days are behind it. Of course that’s also what they said about the Cowboys in 1989.

Jones saw something then in the struggling franchise, which has become the most valuable team in the NFL, according to Forbes. And today he is correctly seeing a big opportunity in the natural gas sector.

"I am excited to provide the funding and to team up with Denham Capital to combine the two companies to create the basin leader in the Haynesville shale. This combination is another step toward completing my vision to create an industry leading natural gas company,” Jones said in an online statement.

Of course, in the short-term, Jones may find making money on shale oil and gas may be as challenging as winning in the NFL. Record U.S. production and the lack of pipeline capacity has made it difficult or impossible to make profits.

Investors have been badly bruised, and many have given up on the sector. The Wall Street Journal points out that natural gas prices have fallen over 19 percent this year. Many analysts are predicting an endless era of low prices.

Jones understands that low prices eventually cure low prices...

> more: https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/dallas-cowboys-owner-jerry-jones-natural-gas

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I bought Calls yesterday

ESV / Ensco Plc

iVhTvjs.png

Date ET Symbol Type Headline
2019-06-13 16:30 U:ESV News Release Ensco Rowan plc Receives Investor Proposal
2019-06-10 08:30 U:ESV News Release EnscoRowan Announces Successful Completion of Consent Solicitation with Respect to Rowan Companies Notes
2019-06-03 18:30 U:ESV News Release EnscoRowan Announces Consent Solicitation with Respect to Rowan Companies Notes
2019-05-22 17:29 U:ESV News Release Ensco Rowan plc Provides Update on Dividend Policy

 

Ensco Rowan investor seeks $2.5 billion dividend payout - Reuters

2 days ago - Deep-sea oil driller Ensco Rowan's investor Luminus Management LLC on Wednesday urged the company to declare a special dividend of ...

June 12 (Reuters) - Deep-sea oil driller Ensco Rowan’s investor Luminus Management LLC on Wednesday urged the company to declare a special dividend of $2.5 billion to its shareholders, sending its shares down 6.3%.

Luminus, the investment advisor to funds and accounts that own 4.5% stake in Ensco Rowan, said it is disappointed by the stock’s performance both before, and since, the Ensco-Rowan merger.

Luminus urged the company to launch a priority guaranteed bond offering to fund the dividend.

Ensco Rowan’s shares fell to their lowest in more than 26 years on Wednesday.

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SOXX Bellwether & IWM, SPY

IWM- etc ...  SPY : 3mIwm+ go FL 10d F LT: sw :

uBJAov2.gif

VIX : VIX-etc :

216Oyj5.gif

==

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OILIES Bottoming Together Again?

BPT, USO, OIH .... update : 10d : $16.04 -0.25%, $11.25 +4.07%, $13.80 +2.22%

0MZLDvW.gif

: 10d : $16.04 -0.25%, $11.25 +4.07%, $13.80 +2.22%

9mzOvuQ.gif

==

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GCM ... update-10d :

GKBEXjK.gif

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Spy set to open all time high 296... Slack IPO today.

Iran ready for war with US.

Nearing the time again to buy puts? Maybe tomorrow or next week.

Of course there is a risk it runs on higher for a little while... in that case 320-30 could be a suitable resistance.

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PUTS are on my Menu too.

But I have not pulled the trigger yet

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It’s Finally Happening: Hillary In Trouble, Big-Tech Showdown, A Trump Power Move! It’s In Our Favor

==

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Roxgold ready to punch through Resistance?

ROXG since mid-2010 : 2019 .. Last: $1.09 + 0.04 / YrH: $1.11

ybSh9vk.gif

==

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RECORD HIGH for SPX.

But not other indices - As Iran shoots down US drone (false flag?)

Index: -CLOSE- Change, Open--, High--, Yr.High, vs. H
DJIA : 26,753. +0.94%,  26,665, 26,799, 26,952.  -0.00%
SPX  : 2,954.2 +0.95%,  2949.6, 2958.1,  2,958.1 @High
IWM  : 155.29  +0.47%, 156.05, 156.22, $173.39 -0.00%
Soxx : 192.76  +0.84%, 194.81, 195.70, $218.00 -0.00%

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Fed's Race Track ... Both rising, as gold breaks out

FRT... update :

2YewilF.gif

Ratio: SPX to-Gold

YlqqFaW.png

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Paul Tudor Jones likely made a killing off a timely call last week to buy gold and stocks MarketWatch

 

Here’s what the macro trader told Bloomberg Markets in an interview on June 12.

“I think one of the best trades is gonna be gold. If I had to pick my favorite [bet] for the next 12 to 24 months, it’d probably be gold,” he said.

Fast forward to June 20, and gold prices for August delivery GCQ19, +0.99% , the most active contract on Comex, notched its highest settlement since September of 2013, after the Federal Reserve shifted away from its “patient” stance on monetary policy and signaled that a rate cut could warranted if economic conditions worsen amid the protracted trade tussle between the U.S. and China that has shaken global markets.

Combined with dovish rhetoric from other central banks, signaling that further stimulus could be needed, about a decade removed from the 2008 financial crisis, the intensifying tensions between Iran and the Trump administration added to the search for havens for investors.

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Back in Action - Gold Breaks Out

I want to apologize for the lack of updates the past few months . I spent the last two months writing a new book and that used up nearly all of my time.  However, now is the moment I have been waiting for the last few years this being a major breakout in gold and gold equities. Gold has spent most of the past 6 years going back to 2013 basing between $1050 and $1400 an ounce .  There is a saying in technical terms the longer the base the bigger the space and after a near 6 year base (which is one of the longest bases I have ever seen anywhere) there show be an explosive and long move in Gold.
 
Now that I think a 2002 to 2007 type move in gold is upon us we will be back into full swing in both our free and pay for services. The first thing we will start with this weekend will be a near production silver play that has only a 3 million dollar market cap , 50 million ounces in silver and is raising money at the moment.
 
I am also going to relaunch my monthly service but until then for the next two weeks I am offering a "holiday special" over Canada Day and Independence Day I will offer a 50 percent discount on our lifetime service , which is usually $2500 for $1250 dollars. Over the next two weeks I will be producing numerous video updates on Precious Metals stocks to buy for the coming years and along with some special junior miners which we think can do very well.
 
Sincerely,
David Skarica

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“It’s too late to be bullish,” Huynh said.
 
(Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 is up 18% and powering toward its biggest first half since 1997. For bulls, things are great. Will they get any better?To a handful of cross-asset strategists who turned skeptical on stocks before this week’s manic sessions, that’s becoming the most pressing question. Increasingly, their answer is: not likely.However spectacular the real-time reaction -- almost 90% of S&P companies are in the green and investors just pushed the index to a record -- gestures like Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish pivot don’t engender confidence for the long term, says Sophie Huynh, a cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale in London. They ring more as a warning, she says, perhaps marking the beginning of the end to economic and market cycles that have lasted a decade.“It’s too late to be bullish,” Huynh said. “The Fed starts to consider rate cuts, equities should start to reflect slower growth momentum, and investors should start to cut earnings expectations. But that hasn’t impacted equities yet.”U.S. stocks surged for a fourth day Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising 1% to its first record since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed within 0.3% of its October high. Futures on the gauges were down 0.2% and 0.1% respectively as of 7:10 p.m. in New York. Speculation the Fed and other central banks are about to add stimulus to the global economy has been a boon for financial products everywhere, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping below 2% for the first time since November 2016.Huynh’s arguments aren’t new. She says valuations are stretched while earnings stagnate, a sign “fear of missing out” has blinded traders to deteriorating fundamentals. Her team cut its recommended global stock allocation to 35% from 40% about two weeks ago and said nothing that has happened since has altered the view.As is true for most equity bears, the relentless decline in Treasury yields provides reason enough to lighten up on stocks, pointing to gathering economic weakness. And while Powell’s dovishness has been enough to revive financial markets, expecting monetary policy to do the same for the economy is asking too much.“At this stage of the economic cycle, you’re either going to have a recession next year or a cyclical slowdown,” she said. “If the Fed cuts rates, do you think we’ll see a global growth recovery? It’s not the case.”Much of the view is shared at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. Dokyoung Lee, who helps manage about $1.5 billion in the firm’s multi-asset portfolio in the Americas, has been trimming his overweight position in global equities since April and turned underweight equities in May. He’s now 5% underweight global stocks, while increasing his allocation to bond-like REITs and infrastructure stocks.Likewise, Lee doesn’t regret making the underweight call just before the Fed decision sent everything higher.“If you take a cold look at what’s going on and ask yourself about what exactly has changed, it’s not much. You still have a trade dispute with China and it’s not going to be easy for stocks,” Lee, head of multi-asset strategies in the Americas at Deutsche Bank Securities, said by phone from New York. “We have a lot of the same issues that we had going into yesterday. They won’t turn around on a dime.”There are the factors that won’t go away even if Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping come closer to a trade agreement at the G-20 summit next week. Economic data in the U.S. isn’t stellar, a key manufacturing gauge is in contraction in most of the regions globally, a stock market rally comes amid minuscule fund flows, which hedge funds trimming their stock allocation to the lowest level in about five years.Investors have pulled $152 billion from emerging and developed equity mutual and exchange-traded funds this year, strategists at Bank of America Corp say in citing EPFR Global data. About a third of the money was yanked from the U.S. passive and active funds.“It’s not a time to be greedy,” Lee said. “Not at all.”(Updates with futures in fifth paragraph.)To contact the reporter on this story: Elena Popina in New York at epopina@bloomberg.netTo contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Chris NagiFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

(Bloomberg) -- The S&P 500 is up 18% and powering toward its biggest first half since 1997. For bulls, things are great. Will they get any better?

To a handful of cross-asset strategists who turned skeptical on stocks before this week’s manic sessions, that’s becoming the most pressing question. Increasingly, their answer is: not likely.

However spectacular the real-time reaction -- almost 90% of S&P companies are in the green and investors just pushed the index to a record -- gestures like Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish pivot don’t engender confidence for the long term, says Sophie Huynh, a cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale in London. They ring more as a warning, she says, perhaps marking the beginning of the end to economic and market cycles that have lasted a decade.

“It’s too late to be bullish,” Huynh said. “The Fed starts to consider rate cuts, equities should start to reflect slower growth momentum, and investors should start to cut earnings expectations. But that hasn’t impacted equities yet.”

U.S. stocks surged for a fourth day Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising 1% to its first record since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed within 0.3% of its October high. Futures on the gauges were down 0.2% and 0.1% respectively as of 7:10 p.m. in New York. Speculation the Fed and other central banks are about to add stimulus to the global economy has been a boon for financial products everywhere, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping below 2% for the first time since November 2016.

Huynh’s arguments aren’t new. She says valuations are stretched while earnings stagnate, a sign “fear of missing out” has blinded traders to deteriorating fundamentals. Her team cut its recommended global stock allocation to 35% from 40% about two weeks ago and said nothing that has happened since has altered the view.

As is true for most equity bears, the relentless decline in Treasury yields provides reason enough to lighten up on stocks, pointing to gathering economic weakness. And while Powell’s dovishness has been enough to revive financial markets, expecting monetary policy to do the same for the economy is asking too much.

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DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : 2yr : DXY: $96.09 -0.54, EUR: $1.1396 +0.0026, GBP: $1.274, CAD: $0.755, AUD: $0.693, PHP: 51.46

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GLD ... update / Last:

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TPRFF (GCM is usd)/ Gran Columbia, update... has raced far ahead of GLD, GDX... & even more ahead of MUX

SlZGjr8.gif

==

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FAZ VS TZA .. Update : 10d /

QSasgNg.gif

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GOOG: shutter it !  Or fine them Billions & Fire top management

ELECTION INTERFERENCE: Project Veritas: Insider Blows Whistle & Exec Reveals Google Plan to Prevent “Trump situation” in 2020 on Hidden Cam.

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VIDEO: “Insider Blows Whistle & Exec Reveals Google Plan to Prevent ‘Trump situation’ in 2020 on Hidden Cam” (Project Veritas) Plus: “Insider: Google Violates ‘letter of the law’ and ‘spirit … Read more

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As China’s Banking System Freezes, SHIBOR Tumbles To Lowest In A Decade

china-repo-rates-2-400x400.jpg

via Zerohedge: One trading day after we reported that China was “Hit By “Significant Banking Stress” as SHIBOR tumbled to recession levels, and less than a week after we warned that China’s interbank … Read more

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