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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - May 2019 Trading - v.124

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2 hours ago, hector said:

Learned today that option spread is wider if vol is lower. DBA fits that bill lol.

You should aim to trade at mid-market.

I usually get filled there, or very close to it

DBA had a nice gain today, so you should be in profit

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2 hours ago, drbubb said:

You should aim to trade at mid-market.

I usually get filled there, or very close to it

DBA had a nice gain today, so you should be in profit

Yup for the time being a tiny profit after subtracting all costs.

Ah, I'll give that a go next time. It's just that usually when buying shares, your limit only gets filled if it crosses the ask quotation.

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Depends on the market... In options markets, try the mid-point.

BTW, I downsized my positions from Monday, taking profits on most of the options I bought

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They are LIVING OFF FEMALE ANGER
This video is interesting in many ways, but one comment jumped out...
At just before 7 minutes in, Tim reveals that a Social Media person had told him:

"ANGRY FEMALES SHARE THE MOST"

I Need To Quit, Channel Announcement And Changes Coming

And so to grow their audience Social Media networks have worked to ramp up the anger
of SJW females, in order to get shares and bigger audiences.
No wonder we have so much anti-Trump, anti-male garbage on Social media.
These networks do not care about truth, they just want more hits

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APAC/ HK1104 & MGX ... fr. 12/2018 - Last: $1.08 / A$1.16 (@ 5/14/19) : R-93.1%

8Kkp7bD.gif

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Hang Lung: The Price GAP narrows, as higher yielding HK101 outperforms HK10

HK101/ HLP vs HK10 / HLG ... update : 10d : $17.66 +0.44 > $21.50 +0.15, Gap: $2.84 / Ratio: 82.1%

KiScCtm.gif

Date-- — : Hk10-: HK101: $Gap : Ratio- / Dv.80: Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields:
BookVal. : $63.49: $30.58: NMF-: r48.2%/ 80cts. 75cts. 5cents: R-div. :
Earns/sh.: $03.88: $01.80: $2.08: r46.4%/
Dividends: $0.80 : $0.75 : $0.05: r93.8%/
05/16/19: $21.50: $17.66: $2.84 : r82.1%/ 3.72% 4.25%: 0.53%: r87.5%:
12/31/18: $19.94: $14.92: $5.02 : r74.8%/ 4.01% 5.03%: 1.02%:  r79.7%:
06/29/18: $22.00: $16.18: $5.82 : r73.5%/
12/29/17: $28.75: $19.10: $9.65 : r66.4%/
06/30/17: $32.30: $19.50: 12.80 : r60.4%/
12/31/16: $26.50: $16.02: 10.48 : r60.5%/ 3.02% 4.68%: 1.66%: r64.5%:
—————

HK10 is earning way more than its dividend, and using the excess to increase its holding of HK101.

So the backing of HK10 has gotten stronger and stronger & its dividend "safer" possibly

 

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Bought a small number of Calls in FCX,

Using my profits from the Monday call buying (sold on Tue&Wed)

FCX -vs-CCJ ... update : $10.85 -0.01, $10.04 -0.08 = r-108%

vfBlRvB.gif

COPPER-etc .., update : 10d :

hDiO0zb.gif

Ratio: FCX to-CCJ : 108%

MyJBnvJ.png

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Excellent Results! GCM is still very cheap

US$ Mkt Cap : 48.28M x US$2.72 (+9.6%) = US$131.3 M

/ 12mos EBITDA ($110.2M) = 1.19 times EBITDA !

/ x4 Q1s EBITDA ($141.2M) = just 93% times EBITDA !!

GCM.t (C$3.69 +0.36) = TPRFF, us quote ... update: US$2.72 +0.25, +9.61%

bhkw9EY.gif

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Oil-Related Indices & Shares

XLE, USO, OIH, BPT ... chart :

q8FrHXr.gif

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SELL Housing, BUY Silver?

Housing (PHM, REIT) vs. Silver ... update :

CKGmeCE.gif

Ratio : Cheapest SLV

mqwPHnG.png

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Big picture keeps Moves in perspective

GLD etf since launch ... All : GBS-all : SLV-all / Last:

VyOe3GQ.gif

: SLV-all : 4yr / Last: $13.52,  -0.13

1jUvDdB.gif

: 4yr /

d34Mvn1.gif

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Why Trump Will Win the US China Trade War—Stephen Moore

Can China really hurt the US with its financial weapons in the US China trade war? Is the US in a “fantastic” position, as US President Donald Trump says? Is dumping US Treasury bonds really an option for the Chinese? And how does all this impact the 2020 election? This is American Thought Leaders and I'm Jan Jekielek. Today we sit down with Heritage Foundation economist Steve Moore, who played a major role in the development of President Trump’s economic policy, and is co-author of the book, "Trumponomics: Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy." More on US China trade! See: US China Trade War: ’Trump is Not Going to Back Down… This is a War of Values’—Curtis Ellis: https://youtu.be/oSjlGNaWPbc

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Astrologer

Remember the BIG PICTURE: RED MARKET ALERT 5/22-5/26.
Hence we have advised again raising cash & first short trading entry yesterday. 
We will step in more daily as Monday/Tuesday markets unknown.
We will also add gold as in June it will be above 1300.

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Silver dropped, and SIL/ Silver shares down too

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  06/29 :  09/28 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 :  05/03 :  05/17  :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 : 1275.7 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 118.65 : 112.76 : 121.51 : 124.50 : 121.88 : 120.65 : 120.65 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 271.28 : 290.72 : 249.92 : 270.06 : 280.42 : 294.03 : 285.84 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2506.8 : 2706.5 : 2803.7 : 2945.6 : 2859.5 :
S/AU: 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 216.7%: 243.6%: 195.6% : 204.7% : 215.8% : 229.9%: 224.2%:
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $74.15 : $73.25 : $45.41 : $55.26 : $55.80 : $61.94 : $62.92 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $75.94 : $75.74 : $57.35: $64.89 : $66.48: $64.25: $63.75:
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $26.27 : $25.19 : $14.03: $17.22 : $17.42: $16.34: $15.09:

OI/X :  44.3% : 36.1% : ====== : 34.59% : 33.25% :  24.46%: 26.54%: 26.20%: 25.43%: 23.67% :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.920 : $3.010 : $2.940 : $2.734 : $2.859 : $2.570 : $2.630 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.630 : $2.773 : $2.932 : $2.819 : $2.739 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : -------------------------> 845.50 : 895.00 : 917.75 : 911.50 : 842.25 : 821.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 501.25 : 509.00 : 503.25 : 524.25 : 457.28 : 438.00 : 465.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 371.25 : 356.25 : 375.00 : 378.25 : 373.00 : 370.75 : 383.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 200.39 : 195.16 : 169.80 : 180.55 : 181.50 : 181.77 : 180.99 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06% : $18.03: $16.91 : $16.91: $16.93 : $16.45: $16.03: $15.92:
D/crb: 10.37% : 9.67% : ====== :  r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.96% : R9.38%: r9.06% : r8.82% : r8.80% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.391 : R3.833 : r4.041 : R4.008 : r4.004 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.16 : $95.62 : $96.45 : $97.26 : $97.82 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.72 : 117.27 : 121.51 : 120.96 : 118.66 : 123.66 : 125.99 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1281.3 : 1322.1 : 1299.2 : 1281.3 : 1275.7 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : R1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.61E : R1.617 : R1.681 : r1.730 : R1.735 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 819.04 : 742.23 : 795.8E: 817.40 : 772.46 : 740.82 : 736.20 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $22.06 : $17.50 :$19.53 : $21.10 : $21.38 : $20.86 : $20.07 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $22.31 :$18.52 : $21.09 : $22.57 : $21.70 : $20.26 : $20.75 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : + 8.18% : $32.70 : $27.36 :$30.22 : $32.84 : $31.44 : $28.41 : $28.74 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $28.88 : $24.23 : $25.02 : $26.88 : $26.01 : $23.80 : $22.59 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.723 : R1.802 : R1.832 : R1.705 : R1.671 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.15 : $13.73 : $14.52 : $14.92 : $14.20 : $13.96 : $13.52 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.200 : 14.710 : 15.540: 15.930 : 15.260 : 14.980 : 14.390 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.33 : +81.4% : $28.75 : $24.77: $25.99 : $27.35 : $26.74 : $31.78 : $32.48 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $43.33 : $42.92: $39.06 : $42.76 : $42.49 : $44.22 : $40.29 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2494.0 : 2618.2 : 2994.0 : 3078.3 : 2860.2 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7476.0 : 8121.9 : 7641.8 : 7968.0 : 7580.9 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $26.59 : $27.58 : $23.82 : $26.05 : $26.69 : $28.07 : $26.88 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 163.77 : 168.55 : 133.90 : 149.18 : 158.24 : 160.53 : 152.84 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 16.24% : 16.36%: 17.79%: 17.46%: 16.87% : 17.49% : 17.59% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $5,883 : $6,652 : $3,770 :  $3,435 : $3,818 : $5,712 : $7,110 :
===== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  06/29 :  09/28 :  12/31 :   02/01 :  03/01 : 05/03 :  05/17 :

 

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HSI may have fallen to key support (144d MA)

HSI / Hang Seng index ... update  / Last: 27,848.79 +61.18

xx

Do you think Hong Kong is safe?

/ 2 /

HK10 etc ... fr. Jan./2017 : hk101 / 10d : $21.05, $17.56 : Gap: $3.49. / Ratio-83.5%

AFd0YJn.gif

: hk101 : $17.56

43CrkqX.gif

/ 10d :

flHAqD7.gif

 

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On 5/16/2019 at 11:59 PM, drbubb said:

Excellent Results! GCM is still very cheap

US$ Mkt Cap : 48.28M x US$2.72 (+9.6%) = US$131.3 M

/ 12mos EBITDA ($110.2M) = 1.19 times EBITDA !

/ x4 Q1s EBITDA ($141.2M) = just 93% times EBITDA !!

GCM.t (C$3.69 +0.36) = TPRFF, us quote ... update: US$2.72 +0.25, +9.61%

bhkw9EY.gif

Retracing that gap up?

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U.S. corporate debt as a percentage of GDP, 1970 to 2019

D6nj394UcAEcWbR.png

 

 

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Will GDX HOLD support...And Jump like a Spring?

GDX ... 4yr : 1yr /Last: $

uVAdFev.gif

: 1yr

PxoGygQ.gif

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"Retracing that gap up? " , Jerpy.

Yes, I think so too

GCM.t / Gran Columbia Gold .... update :

ugDbtnQ.gif

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SOXX Did precede this Stock drop!

SOXX ... update / Last: $180.15 -$2.85, -1.56% / SPX: $2,822.24 - $34.03, -1.18%

geIT0iY.gif

====

Meantime, HW of the Astrologers Fund says:

Henry Weingarten <afund@earthlink.net>
 
23 May at 08:39
 

If you attended any of our talks in last eight months, you knew this was going to be a  RED ALERT MAY with May 1/2 & May 22-26, 2019  highlighted.

1. MAY MARKETS                                                                    
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS

3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES                        

4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB

6. LETTERS

 

  1. 1. YOU BET YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)  EPISODE TWO: DOES THE FAT LADY SINGS BEFORE JUNE?

    OUR RECOMMENDATION HAS BEEN TO RAISE CASH LEVELS, SELL INTO STRENGTH & LOCK IN PROFITS!

    Specifically, we recommended selling at 2954 May 1 [Tops 2954.13] and ,if covered, reselling 2945 SPX Friday May 3.

  • P1 2869 ACHIEVED
  • P2 2812 ACHIEVED
  • P3 2750?  Perhaps we will see this upcoming test this May??

 

WHY MAY? In addition to astro indicators, five more potential EARTHLY reasons beyond the FOMC May meeting & subpar UBER IPO:

  1. Future disappointing corporate earnings & forecasts (within a bifurcated stock market)
  2. US/China Trade Negotiations may not come soon, and that would mean more market volatility
  3. A classic “Sell in May and Go Away” (unlike last year)
  4. Assorted geopolitical swan events e.g. China, [Iran, UK, Turkey, N Korea, etc.]
  5. THE BIGGEST REASON IS THAT GIVEN MARKETS WERE AT RECORD LEVELS,

WE STILL DON’T SEE ANY STRONG EARTHLY (OR HEAVENLY) REASON FOR MARKETS TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER AT THIS POINT IN TIME!

 

Proper Valuations:

DJIA > 25000

SP > 2750

US$ ~ 98

UBER < 42

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RELEASE THE DOCUMENTS !

Better even than Releasing the Kraken ! (maybe)

(Releasing the Sessions was a total Flop. Releasing Barr is something very different.)

Trump moves to escalate investigation of intel agencies

2000.jpeg

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump on Thursday granted Attorney General William Barr new powers to review and potentially release classified information related to the origins of the Russia investigation, a move aimed at accelerating Barr’s inquiry into whether U.S. officials improperly surveilled Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Trump directed the intelligence community to “quickly and fully cooperate” with Barr’s probe. The directive marked an escalation in Trump’s efforts to “investigate the investigators,” as he continues to try to undermine the findings of special counsel Robert Mueller’s probe amid mounting Democratic calls for impeachment proceedings.

Press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement that Trump is delegating to Barr the “full and complete authority” to declassify documents relating to the probe, which would ease his efforts to review the sensitive intelligence underpinnings of the investigation. Such an action could create fresh tensions within the FBI and other intelligence agencies, which have historically resisted such demands.

Barr has already asked John Durham, the U.S. attorney in Connecticut, to examine the origins of the Russia investigation to determine whether intelligence and surveillance methods used during the probe were lawful and appropriate. Still, Barr has been directly involved, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to discuss it publicly, and is also working with CIA Director Gina Haspel, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and FBI Director Christopher Wray.

Trump is giving Barr a new tool in his investigation, empowering his attorney general to unilaterally unseal documents that the Justice Department has historically regarded as among its most highly secret. Warrants obtained from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, for instance, are not made public — not even to the person on whom the surveillance was authorized.

Trump explicitly delegated Barr with declassification power — noting it would not automatically extend to another attorney general — and only for use in the review of the Russia investigation. Before using the new authority, Barr should consult with intelligence officials “to the extent he deems it practicable,” Trump wrote in a memo formalizing the matter.

Trump has frequently claimed his campaign was the victim of “spying,” though the intelligence community has insisted it acted lawfully in following leads in the Russia investigation and conducted surveillance under court order.

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ROXG is getting a Bid! 

It is finally Moving off support levels now

ROXG ... All-Log : 10-yr : 5-yr : 1-yr ... Last: $0.96, +0.03 (H: $0.99), vol. 2.76M - Look at the Rising Volume!

NvMhaHu.gif

RECENT HEADLINES

Date ET Symbol Price Type Headline
2019-05-14 17:10 C:ROXG 0.90 News Release Roxgold earns $1.9-million (U.S.) in Q1
2019-05-14 17:06 C:ROXG 0.90 SEDAR Interim Financial Statements SEDAR Interim Financial Statements
2019-05-14 17:06 C:ROXG 0.90 SEDAR MD & A SEDAR MD & A
2019-04-29 17:09 C:ROXG 0.90 News Release Roxgold produces 33,652 oz Au in Q1 2019

===

Operations:

  • Achieved solid production results of 33,652 ounces (Q1 2018 -- 40,452 ounces);
  • Sold 32,798 ounces of gold (1) for a total of $42.8-million in gold sales (1) (40,050 ounces and $53.2-million, respectively, in Q1 2018);
  • Cash operating cost (2) of $468 per ounce produced and all-in sustaining cost (2) of $775 per ounce sold were in line with guidance;
  • Operating costs (2) of $147 per tonne processed were 32 per cent lower than Q1 2018 as a result of increased throughput and improved efficiencies;
  • Mined 98,140 tonnes and achieved a record quarterly throughput of 106,816 tonnes, which exceeded increased nameplate capacity of 1,100 tonnes per day by approximately 8 per cent.

Financial:

  • Achieved EBITDA (2) (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $16.2-million and EBITDA margin (2) of 38 per cent in Q1 2019, compared with $28.8-million and 54 per cent, respectively, in Q1 2018;
  • Generated cash flow from mining operations (2) totalling $23.4-million for cash flow from mining operations per share (2) of six cents (eight Canadian cents per share);
  • Maintained a strong balance sheet with a net cash position (2) of $13-million;
  • Generated a strong return on equity (2) of 16 per cent;
  • Repurchased and cancelled 4,949,000 shares at an average price of 84 Canadian cents per share for a total cost of $3.1-million ($4.2-million (Canadian)).

Growth:

  • Announced the completion of the Seguela gold project acquisition from Newcrest Mining in April, 2019, and commenced RC (reverse circulation) drilling on the Antenna deposit on April 24;
  • First stoping ore mined at Bagassi South mine at the end of April, 2019.

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