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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - May 2019 Trading - v.124

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TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

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BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

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GLD: $121.95 -$1.58, -1.28% vol. 11.6M

SOXX Dropped - have we got a possible Top in place yet?  Time will tell. But this is China-News related

SOXX - +etc ... 10d : +etc/10d :

BAqQrgi.gif

Compare Moves:

SOXX : 210.07 - 3.48, - 1.63%
SPY - : 292.82 - 1.21, - 0.41%
IWM -: 160.71 + 0.18, +0.11%
TZA -: $ 8.48 - 0.03, - 0.35%
FAZ -: $ 7.92 +0.09, +1.15%

SOXX- etc ... update : Viewing the chart below, I think at least one more rally is likely

X0s6y2t.gif

SOXX- three years

ewFo5n1.png

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Williams has said this before - Will he be right this time?

The Economy is Tanking

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SOXX dropped. market dropped.  Why?

Trump's threat of big trade sanctions on China.  China stocks got dumped Monday too

NEWS:

+ Trump vows to hike US tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods

This week, & may target hundreds of billions more soon. China considers cancelling this week's talks

+ China gives modest boost economy with RRR cut

China will cut Reserve Requirement Ratios, to release about 280 Bn Yuan ($41 bn) for small & middle-sized banks.

Funds will be used for loans to small & middle-sized companies. PBOC has cut RRR's five times in the last year.

+ Junk bond market rally turns Chinese borrowers more aggressive

The market flood gates were re-opened this year - $40.1B raised so far in 2019, vs. $45.6B for all of 2018

 

ShComp. / Shanghai Composite Index ... update / 2,926

Jum3vFX.gif

WHAT IS AT STAKE in China - A good speech that get's into deeper strategic issues

Stephen K. Bannon's Keynote Address at the Western Petroleum Marketers Association

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Pennsylvania REIT Shares Up 16% After Earnings >PEI

AWESOME !
Remember THIS stock (Penn. REIT)?
PEI / Penn. REIT ... 4-yr : 10d / Last: $7.68 +0.63, +8.94%

m5E5MWW.png

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Gold/Silver Ratio = 86

9bXBqMw.png

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YOU NEED TO LISTEN to this,

Kyle Bass thinks Hong Kong is in real trouble now : HK has spent 80% of its Rainy Day fund, defending its (over-valued currency)

J. Kyle Bass's Speech at CPDC Conference 4/25/19

==

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3 hours ago, hector said:

Looks like SPY going down.

And I'm not short. Drat.

Should have could have.

I believe you will have another chance to sell. But I cannot gtee it.

Watch China news... and maybeSOXX which left two gaps down

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(I willlook at this ...when afterbreakfast -and comment)

Trump to End the Dollar as We Know it by June 19th?

 


Casey Daily Dispatch Reader,

 

Image
 

Have you seen this yet?

This move is long overdue...

But it has nothing to do with all of the cryptocurrencies you've been reading about. 

Instead, I'm talking about a major UPGRADE to the paper dollar.

It could transform everything familiar to you about saving... spending... investing... retiring... and banking...

Click here now for the urgent details.

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TNA made a nice clear downturn

It is a 3X Bull on IWN/ Russell 2000

TNA vs IWM ... chart :

VNwCrvt.gif

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GCM / Grand Columbia Gold

Can also find price relationships met at today;s close ... update : $3.14

QiXh9Fl.gif

x7JxmUU.gif

The catapult may be set to launch it

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AAB86kf.img?h=419&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f
FACEBOOK CO-FOUNDER CALLS FOR GOVT TO BREAK IT UP...

Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes called for the break up of Facebook today, arguing in a New York Times op-ed that the site needs to be reined in because its CEO Mark Zuckerberg has “unchecked power” in modern life.

While Hughes noted that he hasn’t worked at Facebook in 15 years, he still feels “anger and responsibility” when the site is used as a vehicle for bad actors and nefarious content, like “Russian agents, violent rhetoric and fake news; and the unbounded drive to capture ever more of our time and attention.”

“[Zuckerberg is] human. But it’s his very humanity that makes his unchecked power so problematic,” Hughes later notes in the piece. “Mark’s influence is staggering, far beyond that of anyone else in the private sector or in government. He controls three core communications platforms — Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp — that billions of people use every day.”

“Mark is a good, kind person. But I’m angry that his focus on growth led him to sacrifice security and civility for clicks,” he added.

Hughes also voiced his disappointment in himself and the initial developers of Facebook for “not thinking more about how the News Feed algorithm could change our culture, influence elections and empower nationalist leaders.”

Near the end of the op-ed, Hughes took admitted that it “took the 2016 election fallout and Cambridge Analytica to awaken me to the dangers of Facebook’s monopoly” and argued that “Zuckerberg cannot fix Facebook, but our government can.”

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What Could Go Wrong? The Fed’s Warns On Corporate Debt

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What Blows Up First? Leveraged Corporate Loans

By now just about everyone understands what junk bonds are and why they matter. But there’s a non-publicly traded version of this kind of debt that’s also soaring and has recently caught the Fed’s eye. Called leveraged loans, these are loans made by banks to companies with weak balance sheets – defined as debt exceeding six times EBITDA, the broadest measure of cash flow.

The dynamic with leveraged loans is the same as with junk bonds (and margin debt, mortgages and car loans), which is to say the longer an economic expansion lasts, the more willing the markets are to fund the sketchier borrows in a given category. Which creates an unstable sector, which leads to a crisis as soon as the economy turns down, and so on.

In the Fed’s most recent report on potential sources of instability, leveraged loans earned a place of honor by clocking a 20% increase in the past year, combined with “rapid growth of less-regulated private credit and a weakening of underwriting standards.”

The latest warning came from the Federal Reserve who identified rising sales of risky corporate debt as a top vulnerability facing the U.S. financial system in their latest financial stability report. Via WSJ:

Officials, for the second time in six months, cited potential risks tied to nonfinancial corporate borrowing, particularly leveraged loans—a $1.1 trillion market that the Fed said grew by 20% last year amid declining credit standards. They also flagged possible concerns in elevated asset prices and historically high debt owned by U.S. businesses.

Monday’s report also identified potential economic shocks that could test the stability of the U.S. financial system, including trade tensions, potential spillover effects to the U.S. from a messy exit of Britain from the European Union and slowing economic growth globally.

Specifically, the Fed warned a downturn could expose vulnerabilities in U.S. corporate debt markets, ‘including the rapid growth of less-regulated private credit and a weakening of underwriting standards for leveraged loans.’”

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Junk Bonds tend to behave more like equity

JNK / Junk Bonds ... update : w/BCV / Last: 107.50 / TLT: 124.92 = 00%

X8p0ZAJ.gif

: w/BCV / Bancroft Fund : $21.69 : Yield 4.61%, PER: 20.04 / 107.50 = XX%

BzGboJm.gif

Ratio: JNK / TLT

bcfgd21.png

Ratio: BCV / JNK

QvafD4T.png

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Nora Jones and sister

COME AWAY WITH ME - NORAH JONES (Full Album) > Mp3

/ 2 /

Anoushka Sankar & Joshua Bell

/ 3 /

Guided Meditation

 

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SOXX still in an UP-channel

SOXX-etc ... update : Last: 201.20 +0.29 / O: 199.07,  L: 196.35, H: 202.30 / Vol. 1.2 million

umlUHy6.gif

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Dollar is vulnerable

DXY / Trade weighted US Dollar .... 5yrs : 10d / Last:

Xbyzl2U.gif

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After passing up the opportunity to buy puts in SPY, I've decided not to give up on options.

EU regs preventing me from purchasing US ETFs stopped me from buying DBA in the past, however today I purchased my first ever option - a call (not just one, heh) on DBA, giving me leveraged exposure to the ETF after all.

I chose an expiry of 19 Jul and strike of 16. Cost was 0.23. Hope I did that right. What can I expect to happen as the price of DBA recovers towards 16? Should I sell them out when they get ITM?

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Metro Bank (MTRO.L) in the UK has had its share price go from £40 in March 2018 to now £4.75. Do you think its worth the punt (at least a dead cat bounce)? Maybe around £3.90?

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Commodites (DBA, CRB), why so weak?

I suppose doubts about China buying of US agricultural products in the face of tariffs and a trade war is the concern

DBA vs CRB ... update : $15.55 - 0.04,

bJBcZCq.gif

Ratio: DBA-to CRB

xx

I would not describe DBA as a safe buy.  Buying here would be a bet on better news flow (from China?) which may bring a quick bounce from oversold

 

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GCM / Gran Columbia Gold could be starting a Surge, with a 5% jump

GCM.t ... update / Last: C$3.31 +$0.16, +5.08%

L7Ufdj4.gif

SSP is down to under 5% of GCM.  So cheap, I could not resist buying some SSP.v shares

GCM.t -vs. SSP, etc. ... 1/2016 : 1/2017 : 1/2018 : 12mos: 10d : C$0.16 / C$3.31 = 4.83%

DQQMWPV.gif

2qIjseH.png

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. . .

 
The Dow sunk around 650 points early Monday, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also lost ground. This comes after China pledged to raise tariffs on $60 billion worth of imports in retaliation to last week's tariff increase from Washington. The Hang Seng was trading higher in positive territory.

The trade dispute escalated last week when The U.S. administration raised tariffs to 25 per-cent from 10 per-cent on some $200 billion worth of imported goods from China. The Dow ended the week 2.1 per-cent lower, its worst week since March 2019, despite a statement from the White House that negotiations were “constructive”. Talks closed with no agreement from either side.

Tech and bank stocks were hit the hardest. Chipmakers and tech companies have been weathering the storm as the trade dispute’s outcoming is feared to cause a slowdown in orders. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) opened lower and lost around 5 per-cent by midday, while Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDQ:CSCO) was roughly 3.8 per-cent lower.

The only silver lining was around safe-play holdings such as utilities.
Read more at https://stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2019/05/13/wall-street-rocked-latest-china-trade-war-salvo#C8SgFvzyfw2pvjxO.99

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Gold Surges Back Above $1300 On Huge Volume As Trade Tensions Escalate

With China's retaliatory threats coming just minutes after Trump warned them not to, and including a closet threat to dump USTs, precious metals are aggressively bid this morning with Gold surging above its 50DMA and breaking $1300 once again.

Gold spiked on extremely heavy volume...

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BUYING CALLS !

I finally did some buying yesterday - Call options.

From BEST to Worse:  In Monday trading

SJT - 10d / Prev.:$ 4.13 > Open: $4.10, Close: $4.30 +0.17, +4.12%

sErGeCf.gif

SLV - 10d / Prev.:$13.84> Open: 13.86, Close: $13.84 UNCH. +0.00%

arbcRR8.gif

HAL - 10d / Prev.:$25.36> Open: 24.86, Close: $24.65 -$0.71, -2.80%

8XK5ky6.gif

ESV - 10d / Prev.:$11.71 > Open: 11.54, Close: $10.90 -$0.81, -6.92%

QvdAo0x.gif

TNA - 10d / Prev.:$58.39> Open: 60.99, Close: $58.39 -6.11. -9.47%

IvSVVL8.gif

Compare:

ALL above - 10d

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Today/ Tuesday
UKX - 10d  : Prev. 7,163 > Open: 7,163.68 Last: 7,230.55 +66.87, +0.93%

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