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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Mar. 2019 Trading - v.122

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif :

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

Updating / Three Different Prices ... 3yr : 10d :

dI3rySK.gif

vv see below

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Updating

If china stocks don't breakdown soon, I am think precious metals and especially Silver should soon have good rally.

Based on  the Silver-Shanghai Composite Cyclical indicator...

TURNING Up (like Sh.Composite), or Rolling Down, like SLV might be doing now

Three Different Prices ... 3yr : 10d :

PFQSQD7.png

3yr : - updated:

DBMpLRF.gif

ratio

n6QO0zq.png

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Laramide vs. Cameco

lam.t etc ... update

sMkhjZ7.gif

ratio: lam to cco

Hd3OolU.png

idea: sell calls on ccj, to buy lam shares...

1,000 ccj = $12.42 x 1000 = $12,420

Month : $12.00 call : $13.00 call : If $$$ : /c$.365=$0.274
Sep.’19: $1.15-1.35 : $0.70-0.80 : $1,250 : 4,562 Lam shs.
Jan.’20: $1.40-1.60 : $0.95-1.05 : $1,000 : 3,650 Lam shs.

 

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Uranium stocks may be ready to Rock

Supply is down due to mine closures by Cameco & in Khazkastan.

Demand rising as six Japanese reactors are ready to reopen in 2019. After 5 reopened in 2018.

URA vs. U.t and CCJ ... 3yr -

T4Iw1Fv.gif

URA / Global X Uranium ETF ... all / Last: $12.61 +0.16

yOSDDVK.gif

U.t / Uranium Participation Fund ... all / Last: $4.74

xDSwT9o.gif

... here's the largest, the uranium "blue chip" that I own already

CCJ / Cameco Corp ... all / Last: $12.42 +0.20

ZOUhliP.gif

==

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Will the U price squirt higher now?

U.t vs CCO.t ... update : 10d / Last: $4.74 +0.01, $12.42 +0.20

vz4EVGt.gif

: 10d : w/URA :

VDNfija.gif

Cameco produces around 15% of the world’s uranium. It operates two of the highest-quality uranium mines in the world. Both are located in Canada’s Athabasca Basin. And the quality of the uranium there is 100x better than the global average.

This allows Cameco to produce uranium for less than its competitors. Most companies mine it for $50–$60/lb. Cameco does it for around $35/lb.

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the Brains behind AOC are exposed

Mr. Reagan Devastates Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with Facts

Chris Kohls aka "Mr. Reagan" joins me to discuss his explosive expose of the Justice Democrats, the organization behind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other radical Freshmen Congressional Representatives.

(here's the video); over 1.7 million views

The Brains Behind AOC Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

"She has become absolutely dependent on the instructions of her handlers"

NOW WE KNOW the truth source of the Toxicity which is AOC.

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Uranium-related shares compared

URA -etc. update: $12.61, CCO/Cameco $16.56, PDN/Paladin $.165: LAM/Laramide $.365, FCU/Fission $.495

VA58ygB.gif

Sym : Price: MktCap EntVal : Ebitda : EV/eb.: Earns : PER-: Div. : Yield : BkVal : P/BV :
Cco.t 16.56: $6.55b: $6.95M $617.M : r: 11.1: $0.42: 39.4 : $0.08 : 0.49%: 12.62: 131% :
Nxe.t $2.27: $790M: $828M: (24.6M): r: N/a : (0.05): 00.0 : N/a— : 0.00%: $0.47: 482% :
pdn.t $.165: $289M: $336.M (47.7M): r: 00.0 : $0.24: 00.0 : N/a— : N/a— : $0.12: 132% :
Fcu.t: .495 : $241.M  $219.M (5.37M) (r: 40.1): (0.04) 00.0 : N/a— : N/a— : $0.67:  74% :
Lam.t .365 : $49.4M $56.8M (1.82M) (r: 31.3): (0.01) 00.0 : N/a— : N/a— : $0.54:  68% :
Other
Gold : 13.01: $22.7b : $29.4B: $3.06b: r:9.60 :  (1.32): N/a- : $0.16 : 1.22%: $6.50: 200%:
NEM : 33.15: $17.7b : $20.2B: $2.74b: r:7.36 : $0.64: 51.8 : $0.56 : 1.68%: 19.70 : 168%:

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Is the Dollar Done?  And rolling over?

DXY ... 2-years: UUP/ Last: $95.92 breaks an uptrend line

sJW49zW.gif

Silver share may be about to break upwards

Silver: SIL vs. SLV ... update : w/GDXJ :

DzRPc3w.gif

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Using OPTIONS to Invest at Higher Yield... PEI/ Penn. REIT, yielding 14%+
 
I will be getting 20% plus yield on my investment, using an customized Options-related strategy.
How? By Selling Puts & Buying Calls, I started out with a tiny debit, only 9 cents per Call option.
My Call exercise price is just $4, or just 68% of Wed.'s closing price of $5.87.
 
I got a good price on the options, by Using a News-related Price drop, as a buying opportunity.
 
Here is the NEWS item: "Pennsylvania REIT stock price target cut to $5 from $7 - at SunTrust RH"
 
This news was reported on MARKETWATCH : @ 7:19 PM ET 03/19/19. That was AFTER the market close on Tuesday.
The PEI stock dropped in early Wednesday, 3/20 trading. My Option order was triggered on this drop.
The chart below shows the action in PEI for 10 trading days, up to & including Wed. 3/20.
The Wed price drop was down to $5.70.  My order was triggered near the end of the 20 cent price drop.
 
PEI ... 10d : Last: $5.87 -0.04 / O: $5.91, H: $5.96, L: $5.70 vol. 1.21Mn
L0UrNgr.gif
==
Option Package: I Sold the Oct.$7 Put & Bought Apr. $4 Calls for a small debit, of less than 9 cents
I intend to exercise the Apr.$4 Calls, and collect the May Quarterly dividend, & probably the August dividend too.
 
My cost to collect the $0.21 / Qtr. and $0.84 pa. dividend will be about $4.00 (so, I will get a Div. yield > 20% p.a.)
Until October,  when I will have to face possible exercise of the $7 Puts. With luck, PEI may be above that level then.
If so, I can keep the PEI shares at a breakeven cost of $4.09 (minus the dividends collected, so maybe $3.67.)
If not above the $7 Put exercise, I can sell some of my PEI shares to cover buying back the $7 Put.
 
WORST CASE RISK: If the dividend is cut, then I may find the $7 Puts are  exercised early, and my $4 Calls/Shares will lose value.
 
Step-by-Step, my Risk & Reward on a 10 option / 1,000 share Call position. (Following figures ignore commissions):
 
Phase 1: Pay a Debit of 9 cents ($0.09 x1000 = $9 per Call = $90 for 10 calls), which I will more than get back from divs, if paid.
 
DETAIL: a Credit of $1.70 per Oct.$7 Put sold / a Debit of $1.79 per Apr $4 Call bought = Net Debit: $9/ct. x10 Cts= $90.
(Note: The Puts had an intrinsic value of $1.21 at $5.79, and that means I collected $0.49 of Time Value, at $1.70.)
My intention is to exercise the $4 Calls in April, prior to the April.18th exercise date, so I can collect the $.21 Quarterly dividend.
 
Phase 2: Exercise the Apr. $4.00 calls ($4.00 x 1,000 shs = $4,000. adj.> $4.09 -0.21 = $3.88 per sh.)
 
By the end of May, each 1,000 shares of PEI, should deliver a 21 cent dividends, so I should more than recover my
9 cents/ $90 per 1,000 share debit,. (Alternatively, if I have to borrow the $4.00 exercise price, then the dividend in May
will more than cover interest.)  Another 21 cents dividend should be paid at the end of August. bringing my
Net cost down to: $0.09 + 4.00 - 0.21 - 0.21 = $3.67 per share, or $3,670 per 1,000 shares 
 
Phase 3: Buyback the Oct. $7.00 puts. $7.00 Strike: Less the value of PEI. $7.00- ($3.88= $3.12/2= $1.56 )= $5.44 breakeven
 
If PEI is trading at $5.44 in Oct., then I can sell my PEI position at the price, and gain a $1.56/ share profit. and use that
to cover the $1.56 Loss on the $7.00 Puts, when I buy them back. If PEI is above $5.44, I should have a profit.
 
ALONG THE WAY,  the initial breakeven is: $5.54 + 50% Time Value on the $7 Puts (say 50 cents/2) = about $5.79
So I sell the $4 Apr. Calls at $1.79. and cover the 9 cents debit, and have $1.70 left to pay the $1.21 IV on the Oct. Puts
Plus another $0.49 to cover Time Value in the Puts
 
Basically, I will make a Gain of approx. 2 cents, for every 1 cent the price is above the $5.79 Initial breakeven,
with an adjustment downwards in the breakeven price if/as the Time Value of the Oct. $7 puts declines.
(There are 7 months, or about 210 days until the Put expires, if the Time Value was to fall in a straight line,
rather than per a SqRt. of Time, then the TV would fall by about 1.6 cents every week. In fact, it will fall
less that that initially, and faster towards the end.  But TV will also rise if PEI stock rises towards the $7 strike.
An October Put or Call struck At-the-Money, is now worth about 11%.  So if the price rise quickly to $7.00,
the Put would have a time value of about $0.77.  The $4 Calls would increase much faster.)
 
With PEI closing on Wed, at $5.87, I see these prices for PEI Options
 
Apr. $4 Call : $1.80 -  2.00 = $1.90 mid : IV: $1.87 + TV: $0.03= $1.90
Oct. $7 Put  : $1.40 -  1.90 = $1.65 mid : IV: $1.13 + TV: $0.52= $1.65
 : Net Value : $1.90 -$1.65= $0.25 Net, or a $0.16 profit, on  $0.09 Debit, x10cts = $165 profit per 10 cts, 1000 shares
 
How much BUYING POWER do I need for this strategy?
 
ph.#1: $90 cash + In-the-money Value of puts ($1.13, $1130) + 30% MV ($5.87 x30%= $1.76, $1760) = $3790, per 10 contracts
ph.#2: $90 cash + (same as above, if PEI at $5.87 is marginable, as I believe it is), so $1130 + $2890 = $3790, per 10 contracts
- - - -  : At this stage, an additional $4,000, will have to be borrowed, so $4,090 in total, less whatever Divs, are received
ph.#3: If I do not buyback the Puts, then I will have to borrow another $7,000 to exercise the Puts on another 1,000 shares
Then, I will be long 2,000 shares, at an average cost of about $5.55 ( ie. $4.09 + $7.00), less the dividends received.

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MANILA was graded #12 in the Top 20, Most Dynamic cities in the World.

Mostly about economic growth, and "real estate momentum."
19 of the top 20 were in Asia, and 131 cities were reviewed.
Indian and Chinese cities dominated, None from Europe or America
made the Top 20 List

 

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31 minutes ago, drbubb said:

MANILA was graded #12 in the Top 20, Most Dynamic cities in the World.

Mostly about economic growth, and "real estate momentum."
19 of the top 20 were in Asia, and 131 cities were reviewed.
Indian and Chinese cities dominated, None from Europe or America
made the Top 20 List

 

Wow congrats for your city! You recommended I check it out a while ago, and I will get around to it. Perhaps I will make a visit this fall/winter.

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It is a pretty exciting place to live, if you like growth & infrastructure change

And it is still quite a CHEAP place to live, by international standards

MORE on the Philippines in a special section in THIS very website: http://MakatiPrime.com

 

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FALSE BREAK?

DXY / chart - has recovered all of its losses from yesterday

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Time to ESCAPE from New York? 

(to avoid sky-high taxes & other costs)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D2MM7Y_UwAEeX1H.jpg


Tax Reform Causing Freakouts in Rich New York Towns...

41% say can't afford to live in NYC; Plan to leave...

LIST: Fastest-shrinking cities in USA...

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Oil has run into some possible resistance

USO / US Oil etf ... update: OIH : Oilb : OIH is also at poss, resistance at $18. OILB at $30 resistance

dwaljWK.gif

Some Oil stocks like Murphy Oil are also testing resistance

MUR ... update:

6cMnnG7.gif

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8 hours ago, drbubb said:

FALSE BREAK?

DXY / chart - has recovered all of its losses from yesterday

yanuJqb.gif

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Part of a Family?

I am amazed at how these charts can be integrated into a combined picture

GCM vs MUX etc ... update :

https://i.imgur.com/rQNID12.gif

==

I dont think I am imagining these relationships - they appear to be pretty clear

 

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On 3/22/2019 at 8:02 AM, drbubb said:

Oil has run into some possible resistance

USO / US Oil etf ... update: OIH : Oilb : OIH is also at poss, resistance at $18. OILB at $30 resistance

dwaljWK.gif

Some Oil stocks like Murphy Oil are also testing resistance

MUR ... update:

6cMnnG7.gif

Energy-related shares are getting body-slammed today

OIH : $16.97 -0.78, -4.40%
USO : $12.17 -0.27, -2.17%
BPT : $26.16 -1.01, -3.72%
CNQ : $27.58 -0.87, -3.06%

Uranium-related is down too:
CCJ : $11.78 -0.33, -2.73%
URA : $12.36 -0.27, -2.14%
U.t - : $ 4.54 -0.10, -2.16%

Coal too
BTU : $29.45 -0.56, -1.87%

===> in edit: Here's what we saw after the Friday close

OIH : $16.95 -0.80, -4.50%
USO : $12.23 -0.21, -1.70%
XLE : $65.47 -1.82, -2.70%... update

DyOuS1s.gif

==

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Markets dive as key economic indicator raises recession fears

Markets plunged Friday when a closely watched economic measure warned that sluggish global growth could tip the United States toward recession.

All three major indexes saw a steep decline on worries that a recession may finally be on the horizon after a 10-year bull market and economic expansion.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 460 points, about 1.8 percent, when the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-year yield. The so-called "inverted yield curve" is a historic precursor of a recession.

Stocks posted their worst day since Jan. 3.

/ 2 /

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