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drbubb

SOXX, tza & faz/ Semi-Conductor index, etc: Great Bellwethers?

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SOXX Tired?, peaked first? (I thought at the time: 9/16/2019)

SOXX- etc ... 10d / Last

R5582xP.gif

/ 2 /

And then...  BAGHDAD AIRSTRIKE ! (early Friday)

UPDATE _ at the Turn of the Year, going into 2020, IWM peaked first : 10d-update

Thu. Jan. 2nd close:
SOXX: 256.29 +5.19, +2.07% O: 254.26, H: 256.29, L: 253.00 (12mo: 150.95 - 256.29)
SPY.  : 324.87 +3.01, +0.94% O: 323.54, H: 324.89, L: 322.53 (12mo: 243.67 - 324.89)
IWM. : 165.78 +0.11,  +0.07% O: 166.74, H: 166.75, L: 164.23 (12mo: 133.72 - 167.12)
XLF.  : $31.08 +0.30, +0.97% O: $30.89, H: $31.08, L: $30.80 (12mo: $23.82 - $31.08)

VpohMyj.gif

==

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US Stocks Coming at an Extreme.. and a Turning Point?

- Last hurrah possibly?  Watch SOXX over the next few days, for signs of a turn.

Maybe we have seen the last cut in Interest rates (on Thursday) in this cycle

(Is bellwether Phillippines PSEI already past its peak? @8,400, now <8,000: chart )

SOXX vs. SPY, IWM ... 6mo : 10d / Last : 229.50 +5.15, +2.30% : SPY: 306.14 +0.93%. R- 75.0%

RF6h1EJ.gif

Ratio: SOXX to-SPY: R- 75.0%

rQdgs5H.png

Look at VIX, the Volatility Index (12.3%).... seemingly on the bottom of a range, like TZA & FAZ

TZA, vs. VIX, FAZ ... update : 10d / Last: $40.97, 12.3% - 6.96%, $31.71

50Y0Pl9.gif

Straddles (SPX: $306.14 / IWM: $158.10 / r: 193.6% / vix: 12.3% )

SPX:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 :  pct.   /    Call +  Put = Feb. :  pct.   /
310: $3.15+$7.35=10.50: 3.43%/ $4.43+$8.73=13.16 : 4.30%/ $6.60+10.47=17.07: 5.58%/
306: $5.37+$5.36=10.73: 3.51%/ $6.73+$6.93=13.66: 4.46%/ $8.99+$8.81=17.80: 5.82%/
302: $8.18+$3.99=12.17: 3.98%/ $9.45+$5.58=15.03 : 4.91%/  11.68+7.58=19.26: 6.29%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 9.67% ) /  76 days ( /45.6%: 9.78%)  /  111 days ( /55.1%: 10.6%)/
===
IWM:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct. /   Call +  Put =   J’20 :  pct.    /    Call +  Put = Feb. :  pct.   /
163: $1.27+$6.39=$7.66: 4.85%/ $2.05+$7.07= $9.12: 5.77%/ $3.16+$7.94=11.10: 7.03%/
158: $3.52+$3.52=$7.04: 4.46%/ $4.47+$4.44=$8.91: 5.64%/ $5.71+$5.46=11.17: 7.07%/
154: $6.25+$2.14=$8.39: 5.31%/ $7.11+$3.06= 10.17: 6.04%/ $8.29+$4.05=12.34: 7.81%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 12.3% ) /   76 days ( /45.6%: 12.4%)  /  111 days ( /55.1%: 12.8%) /
===
( Soxx: $229.50, TZA: $40.97. TNA: $62.69 )
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /    Call +  Put = Feb. : pct. /
230: $6.85+$8.10=14.95: 6.51%/ $8.85+10.00=18.85: 8.21%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 17.9%  )/  76 days ( /45.6%: 18.0%)   / 167 days ( /67.6%: ???%) /
===
TZA:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /    Call +  Put = Apr. : pct. /
$36: $5.62+$0.59=$6.21: 15.2%/ $5.95+$1.19=$7.14: 17.4% /
$41: $2.71+$2.78=$5.49: 13.4%/ $3.38+$3.75=$7.13:17.4%/ $5.45+$6.23:11.68: 28.5%/
$45: $1.53+$5.62=$7.15: 17.4%/ $2.24+$6.58=$8.82: 21.5% /
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 36.9% ) /  76 days ( /45.6%: 38.2%)   / 167 days ( /67.6%: 42.2%) /
===
TNA:    Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct. /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.  /    Call +  Put = Apr. : pct. /
$58: $6.88+$2.44=$9.32: 14.9%/ $7.75+$3.55=11.30: 18.0%/
$63: $3.80+$4.30=$8.10: 12.9%/ $4.70+$5.52=10.22: 16.3%/ $7.46+$8.48=15.94: 25.4%/
$67: $2.06+$6.60=$8.66: 13.8%/ $2.86+$7.68=10.54: 16.8%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 35.5% ) /  76 days ( /45.6%: 35.8%)   /  167 days ( /67.6%: 37.5%)  /
===

Tza-Tna "straddle"--------> tna$63c:4.70:7.50%+tza$41c:3.38:8.24%=>15.74% /.456= 34.5%pa /jan'20:12.4%= R2.78 vs. 3x gearing

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STOCKS STILL in Bull Market?  Upside breakout is possible

As of last week, Tony C's daughter, Christine, saw the upwards move in Stocks still underway

LONG TERM: Uptrend consolidating

wklyreport

In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  The Primary wave I high occurred in May 2015 and Primary wave II low in February 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway ever since and the Major wave 1 high of Primary wave III occurred in October 2018.  Our preferred long term count is posted on SPX, which reflects that Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 is underway from the Major wave 2 low in December 2018 and continues to subdivide into Minor, Minute and now Micro waves.  We modified our long term status to identify that the uptrend is consolidating and that remains until Major wave 3 can clearly breakout of the overlapping wave structure.  Our alternate count for a potential breakdown is posted on the DOW in the public chart list.

MEDIUM TERM: Uptrend

spxdaily

SPX continued the rally this week to reach 3027, just one point shy of the all-time, before pulling back to finish the week at 3022. 

> more: Weekend Report / Posted on by Christine Caldaro

Not all agree, like these posters:

Jim Guthery says:

Gann’s 90-year cycle 09/2019 to 03/2020. Or maybe he was just overhyped? What ushers next if his theories are correct could coincide with Fiona’s “hasty manner.” But 3090 could come soon. It’s tough trying to play vix products. But when this puppy starts you can see 20 to 30% pops in a day.

==

  • SPYtrader says:

    M Wags,
    Still no Buy signal for me. As I mentioned before, I never buy at the bottom. From my vantage point the trend is still down. I will leave the lower targets and the higher targets to others. The best scenario for me would be it goes into a trading range for weeks to several months and then breaks higher. I’m still interested in owning it for a more longer term investment.

  • 11c5fdeaa10cf20d541075c3309b3906?s=40&d=gtoptions says:

    You’re only down 26%.

    Liked by 2 people

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Semiconductor stocks are in bubble territory, these analysts say MarketWatch

One index is up more than 84% in the year to date

Where’s the bubble in financial markets?

Some analysts point to commercial real estate, propped up by the exuberant spending of WeWork. Some are keeping a watchful eye on corporate debt. And still others are uneasy about the surge in growth of passively-managed funds. But would you expect semiconductor equipment?

That’s the thesis from BCA Research, and it’s a view they have strong feelings about. “We warn that the S&P semi equipment all-time highs look more like a mania, eerily similar to the dotcom bubble era,” BCA analysts said in part one of a two-part series laying out their case.

That’s right: semiconductors, the chips inside the computers that increasingly power our lives, are the Pets.com and Geocities of 2019.

Related: Here’s how to play the trade war with ETFs

To be sure, part of BCA’s argument rests on valuations, which are sky-high. So far this year, the S&P Semiconductor Equipment Index has surged nearly 84%, according to FactSet, nearly four times the rise in the S&P 500 SPX, -0.20%  . A popular exchange-traded fund that tracks a separate index, the iShares PHLX Semiconductor fund SOXX, -0.41%  , is up about 50% in that time period.

“Relative forward profits are way behind relative share prices as investors have extrapolated the recent positive trade news far into the future,” BCA analysts explained. “As a reminder this index has a 90% foreign sales exposure with roughly 30% of sales originating from China.”

BCA also has some macro fundamental reasons for caution. A trade group called World Semiconductor Trade Statistics said in August that demand will decline 13.3% in 2019, “returning to growth” in 2020. (This MarketWatch story lays out a more bullish case for some recovery.)

Still, the U.S. manufacturing sector remains in contraction, for the third month in a row, the analysts pointed out. That signals that the lofty valuations for the semi sector are “unwarranted and bound to return to earth,” they said. “While bulls would buy this breakout, we are sticking our necks out and recommend selling into strength.”

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LONELY New HIGHS for SOXX.  Time to look at buying SOX Puts?

SOXX / semiconductors vs.: SPY, IWM... fr. 11.15.18: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / SOXX: 236.98, SPY:311.79, IWM: 158.92

QE1C7lD.gif

: 2yr:

TE3CuMP.gif

Ratio: SOXX-to-SPY

7YlPCjD.png

( Soxx: $235.76, TZA: $40.23. TNA: $63.78)
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /  
250: $1.24+14.90=16.14: 6.81%/ $2.87+16.45=19.32: 8.16%/41.2%= 19.8%  
240: $4.35+$8.05=12.40: 5.23%/ $6.70+10.20=16.90: 7.13%/41.2%= 17.3%
235: $7.00+$5.60=12.60: 5.31%/ $9.35+$7.90=
17.25: 7.28%/41.2%= 17.7%
230: 10.25+$3.80=14.05: 5.93%/ 12.40+$5.85=18.25: 7.70%/41.2%= 18.7%
Days: 34 days ( /30.5%: 17.4%  )/  62 days ( /41.2%: 17.7%)

SUGGESTION: BUY: SOXX.jan.$235P @$7.90 /236.89= just 3.33%: cheap insurance?

Prev:  Soxx: $235.76, TZA: $40.23. TNA: $63.78)
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /  
235: $7.65+$7.20=14.85: 6.30%/ $9.80+$9.35=20.15: 8.55%/
230: 10.75+$5.25=16.00: 6.79%/ 12.70 +$7.35=21.05: 8.93%/43.8%= 19.5%
Days: 41 days ( /33.5%: 18.8%  )/  69 days ( /43.8%: 19.5%)   /
Prev:  Soxx: $229.50
Soxx:   Call +  Put =  Dec : - pct.  /   Call +  Put =   J’20 : pct.   /  
230: $6.85+$8.10=14.95: 6.51%/ $8.85+10.00=18.85: 8.21%/
Days: 48 days ( /36.3%: 17.9%  )/  76 days ( /45.6%: 18.0%)   / 167 days ( /67.6%: ???%) /
===

How much Gas is left in the tank?

As Impeachment Fizzles, The Stock Market Soars

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On 11/17/2019 at 12:32 PM, drbubb said:

LONELY New HIGHS for SOXX.  Time to look at buying SOX Puts?

SOXX / semiconductors vs.: SPY, IWM... fr. 11.15.18: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / SOXX: 236.98, SPY:311.79, IWM: 158.92

QE1C7lD.gif

SUGGESTION: BUY: SOXX.jan.$235P @$7.90 /236.89= just 3.33%: cheap insurance?

I SUGGESTED Buying this Put:

SOXX.jan.$235P @$7.90 > Now at 10.05 ! : + 27.2%

SOXX-etc ... 10d /

SPY   : 310.77 - 1.18, -0.37%, Low: 309.06, -0.99%. (Prev.: 311.93)
SOXX: 232.40 - 2.77, -1.18%, Low: 230.62, -1.99%. (Prev.: 235.17)

MSNlZoV.gif

Stocks sink on report US-China trade deal may be delayed

Fox Business-1 hour ago
Semiconductor stocks were hit especially hard on the news a trade deal may be delayed. AMD, Qualcomm and Micron Technology all finished ...

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SOXX moved up from the level of SPY, to the level of FMC

FMC-etc / fr. 2008 : Sep.2015 : Dec.2018 / FMC: $97.23, SOXX: $229.68, SPY: $310.96

ExZ74d6.gif

: Sep.2015 : Dec.2018 /

09bvurj.gif

: Dec.2018 / FMC: $97.23, SOXX: $229.68, SPY: $310.96

SPDoZEJ.gif

==

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On 11/21/2019 at 6:39 AM, drbubb said:

I SUGGESTED Buying this Put:

SOXX.jan.$235P @$7.90 > Now at 10.05 ! : + 27.2%

SOXX-etc ... 10d /

SPY   : 310.77 - 1.18, -0.37%, Low: 309.06, -0.99%. (Prev.: 311.93)
SOXX: 232.40 - 2.77, -1.18%, Low: 230.62, -1.99%. (Prev.: 235.17)

update ... SOXX-vs-SPY : 10d - NOTE the discrepancy, non-confirmation of the NEW HIGH in SPY

SOXX has not matched the Higher High in SPY !

HBOAzeu.gif

===== : -11/20 : -11/21 : -11/22 : -11/27 change, +Pct.
SOXX.  : 235.17 : 232.40 : 229.65 :: 236.00 +1.69, +0.72%
SPY.     : 311.95 : 310.77 : 310.95 :: 315.48 +1.40, +0.45%
Ratio    :  75.4% :  74.8%  :  73.9% ::  74.8% :
VIX       :  12.78 :   13.13  :   12.34 ::  11.75  :
ja.235p: ===== : $10.05 : $12.00 ::  $7.40 :
%$235 : ===== :   4.28% :  5.11% ::  3.15% :
ja.315p: ===== :  $ 8.50 :  $ 7.70 ::  $5.18 :
%$315 : ===== :   2.70% :  2.44% ::  1.64% :
=====

TZA, vs. VIX, FAZ ... update : 10d / Last: $40.97, 12.3% - 6.96%, $31.71

fwgiQRj.gif

6mos :

image.png

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Cannot say that, Hector.  What does "Safe" mean?

But I think PUTS may be a smart buy here.  SOXX or SPY.  They both look cheap with VIX so low

Calls on FAZ & TZA may also pay off

But as the following charts show, ROLLOVER from an important Top tends to be a process, not a single, once & for all sudden peak

XLF/ Financials ... all : 5yr / Last: 30.20

QhhoA1K.gif

xx

seNlhYK.gif

 

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I think ultimately stocks will go higher. We are assuming dollar weakness and people staying in cash like Buffett because they can't see any bargains. Also the index bubble means more retirement funds into stocks, while unemployment is low. Meanwhile hedgies who are short are getting burned.

In the short term, maybe a lot of choppiness, so could be some opportunistic shorts here and there like over this year.

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KILLER CHARTS ?

This one, SOXX vs SPY, and IWM ... update:

izFAy6B.gif

... makes my Point mostly clearly - about this being a good time to BUY PUTS

We are now at point C - a point which I think is very similar to points A & B, new high on SPY, but NOT SOXX.

/ 2 /

The chart shows Fed interest rates and the NASDAQ for roughly the past 25 years - three huge rate cutting cycles, three massive bubbles;

two of which have already popped. Think the third won't pop?

EKZ2B9-XsAYlQdL?format=png&name=small

> https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-chart-shows-fed-interest-rates-and-the-nasdaq-for-roughly-the-past-25-years-three-huge-rate-cutting-cycles-three-massive-bubbles-two-of-which-have-already-popped-think-the-third-wont-pop/

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PULLED UP by the SOXX

US Stocks still looking good

IWM vs SOXX, SPY ... update :

AoyRDrv.gif

==

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Discrete Targets for US stock indices?

Looks like the record IWM high of 170.07 may be a good target - that's 2.4% above Friday's close of 166

That's 37.0% over the IWM-124 Low. +38.2% above the 124 Low would be: 171.4.  So I am targeting: 170-171 for IWM.

IWM vs. SPY, XLF ... update / Last: 165.97, 320.73, 30.68 / INDU: 28,445 ... 10d-w/SOXX

olmVNK8.gif

2.4% over the SPX Close of 3,221 would be: 3,298, Call it SPX-3,300

2.4% over the INDU Close of 28,445 would be: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000 as a round number target

===

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"2.4% over the SPX Close of 3,221 would be: 3,298, Call it SPX-3,300

2.4% over the INDU Close of 28,445 would be: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000 as a round number target

getting closer...

3,233.78
Change:
arrow +10.40

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This could be a Top formation, but somehow does not feel right yet

I will be watching these Highs from last week. Note that SOXX gave a 1-day Early warning

SPY vs-Soxx, Iwm... update / SPY: 321.08 -0.55%, SOXX: 250.42 -0.75%, IWM: 165.44 -0.25%

E3a0beH.gif

SOXX vs-IWM, SPY ... update:

lKk4is8.gif

TZA. FAZ, VIX ... update / Individually: TZA:$54.44, FAZ:$40.56, VIX:$19.87

ibNpKoi.gif

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It was looking bearish until, naturally, Trump announced the trade deal and gave the bulls a second wind. Closed my shorts on Tuesday and will watch for a week or two.

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whoops!

And then...  BAGHDAD AIRSTRIKE !

UPDATE _ at the Turn of the Year, going into 2020, IWM peaked first : 10d-update

SOXX: 256.29 +5.19, +2.07% O: 254.26, H: 256.29, L: 253.00 (12mo: 150.95 - 256.29)
SPY.  : 324.87 +3.01, +0.94% O: 323.54, H: 324.89, L: 322.53 (12mo: 243.67 - 324.89)
IWM. : 165.78 +0.11,  +0.07% O: 166.74, H: 166.75, L: 164.23 (12mo: 133.72 - 167.12)
XLF.  : $31.08 +0.30, +0.97% O: $30.89, H: $31.08, L: $30.80 (12mo: $23.82 - $31.08)

VpohMyj.gif

==

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The real bubble?  it is in ETF stocks. 

I have just heard a very fascinating interview about this.  I will psot a link here shortly.  The argument in the interview is to "look for stocks below the ETF line" (which may not be included in popular indices for a number of reasons.)  Wky?  because when the MASS SELLING comes, it will be the indices and etfs that get sold.  And the stocks in the index will get pound.  And the ones outside it, may be relatively unscathed.  A very interesting idea, which was well-presented

Why We're in the Biggest Financial Bubble in History (w/ Steve Bregman & Mike Green) >

==

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BULLSEYE ! - on my IWM -170 Peak Target, from before Christmas 2019.

MY TARGETS were, Late Dec. & Jan. -  - - / Actual Highs ! :

IWM / Russell 2000 : target was 170-171  /170.36- on 1.17.2020

Initially, SPX-3,300, later raised to: 3,350 / 3,393 - on 2.19.2020

INDU: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000.   / 29,600- on 2.12.2020

XLF / Financials etf : target not given.       / $31.38- on 2.12.2020

TOPS - chart updated in 2020, period starts in Late 2017:

lPCBXcA.gif

===== ( follow was posted before Christmas 2019):

"Discrete Targets for US stock indices?" - I wrote in my 2020 TIPS thread, at the end of 2019

Looks like the record IWM high of 170.07 may be a good target - that's 2.4% above Friday's close of 166

That's 37.0% over the IWM-124 Low. +38.2% above the 124 Low would be: 171.4.  So I am targeting: 170-171 for IWM.

IWM vs. SPY, XLF ... update / Last: 165.97, 320.73, 30.68 / INDU: 28,445

olmVNK8.gif

2.4% over the SPX Close of 3,221 would be: 3,298, Call it SPX-3,300

2.4% over the INDU Close of 28,445 would be: 29,128.  Maybe 29.000 or 30,000 as a round number target

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This chart shows a clear set-up for the Recent Market Drop, starting a few days ago

TZA. FAZ, VIX ... update / Individually:

TZA: 49.00 +1.91
FAZ: 36.79 +2.09
VIX : 40.11 +0.93

KO2SBu3.gif

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STOCKS ready to Fade now?

XLF/ Financials are already weakening

Update : YTD: from 2.20.2020: soxx-led: 10d/ SPY: Thu: 338.28 (YrH: 339.61), Fri.8/21: 339.48 (YrH: 339.72)

JN4Yahi.gif

XLF: 24.31 / SPY: 339.48 = Ratio- 7.16%

Uzc0cKz.gif

10d/ SPY: 338.28 > SOXX dropping faster... Leading SPY down?

j1cN3mN.gif

Friday: 10d/ SPY: 339.48 (YrH: 339.72)

2eRta9q.gif

SOXX leading SPY lower now? Ratio: 88%, down from 91.5% peak

rWWudov.png

XLF-to SPY ratio: 7.16%

iwYgXsh.png

==

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USA- Big 3: 10d/: TSLA -All:

t4DEYnQ.gif

TSLA -All:

IkBVmhS.gif

===

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Tech due for bounce maybe, after sharp selloff in early september

GOOG- twtr- FB ... from 7.5.2019: 10d / G: $1,532 -3.7%, T: $38.19 -4.2%, F: $271 -4.1% (Spy: $333 -2.7%)

3I9BrfR.gif

==

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SOXX often Peaks first, but NOT Always! ... fr. 2/28/18 : 10d: iwm: spy : tza vF 2 :

A484ShM.gif

w/XLF:

bIx28nO.gif

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