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drbubb

SOXX, tza & faz/ Semi-Conductor index, etc: Great Bellwethers?

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SOXX / Semi-Conductor index, Can be a Great Bellwether

SOXX often Peaks first, BEFORE other indices ... fr. 2/28/18 : 3/2017 : 1/2016 / 10d: iwm: spy : tza vF 2 :

Ej0dxUL.gif

From Aug23rd Updated - see Post#2

TZA. FAZ, VIX ... update / Individually: TZA:$54.44, FAZ:$40.56, VIX:$19.87

2WUwPIh.gif

=====

SOXX Shock! : -1.20%. Has the stock market turned?

$183.63 - 2.23, -1.20%, O: 185.11, H:185.11, L:181.63 / vol. 980k

SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down?

SPY fell just -0.04%.  IWM rose +0.14%

SOXX - +etc ... 10d : +etc/10d :

1oeNZLO.gif

Top Holdings,     as SOXX closed at $183.63 - 2.230, -1.20%

SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down?

Name                        Symbol  % Assets
Broadcom Inc         :  AVGO    8.94%    $271.49 - 3.51, -1.28%
Texas Instruments :  TXN      7.98%    $105.71 - 1.56, -1.45%
Intel Corp                 :  INTC     7.56%.      $53.24 +0.01, +0.02%
NVIDIA Corp            : NVDA     6.96%    $155.25 - 1.69, -1.08%
Qualcomm Inc         : QCOM    6.73%      $53.04 +0.01, +0.02%
Xilinx Inc.                 :  XLNX     4.79%    $123.27 +0.49, +0.40%
Adv. Micro Devices :  AMD      4.54%      $23.48 - 0.73, -3.02%
Lam Research          :  LRCX    4.28%    $177.20 - 1.36, -0.76%
Analog Devices        :  ADI        4.26%.   $105.24 - 1.24, -1.17%
Applied Materials.   :  AMAT    4.15%.     $38.78 - 0.80, -2.02%

SOXX is looking toppy

X1OOKHt.png

And AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, too. 

f2rO2uX.png

AMD was down over 3% yesterday, the biggest drop among the Top10 components of the SOXX

A NEWS-driven drop?  Or are we seeing pure exhaustion in The Rally in Semis?

I could not find specific news items to explain the 3% drop in AMD, and the 1% or greater drop in several other components.

This may signify that Rally targets have been reached and the Rally in Semis is exhausted.

As a matter of fact, one of the main news mentions, by Jim Cramer was bullish:

The Return of the Semis

What's the biggest surprise rally of 2019? It's the semiconductors, Cramer told viewers. After being left for dead in last year's decline, investors simply got too negative, Cramer said, and that's led to an incredible rally this year.

The semiconductors were hit with a one-two punch of declining end markets, falling prices and an overall market decline. Shares of Texas Instruments (TXN - Get Report) , Micron Technologies (MU - Get Report) , Advanced Micro Devices (AMD - Get Report) and Nvidia (NVDA - Get Report) all seemed to be in free fall.

But there's more to semiconductors than just the price of DRAM and flash memory, Cramer said, there's also 5G wireless. 5G is what's going to power the cell phones of the future, and that's why shares of Xilinx (XLNX - Get Report) are up 45% for the year. Cramer said he's bullish on Skyworks Solutions (SWKS - Get Report) and Lam Research (LRCX - Get Report) , an Action Alerts PLUS holding.

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UPDATED - AUG. 23rd 2019 !

BOUGHT Puts again on Wed. & Thursday - Here is why...

(this investment in SPY puts, TZA & FAZ Calls got me on the right side of the Market BEFORE Friday's big drop)

The recent rally was reflected in a pullback in TZA & FAZ to support levels, ie 21d MA on wed/thi

BEAR Side: TZA & FAZ ... Jul.2017-toDate : fr.May2018 : Apr'19 / wed cl. xx / thu cl. xx

rwHfXNI.gif

Above was Wed./Thu when I put on my hedges.

Below is what happened next / in shorter time horizon... fr.May2018 : Apr'19 / wed cl. xx / thu cl. xx

rpa5sJD.gif

Stock rally ran out of gas - Low volume prior to the high vol. drop ... 3 mos

lmIs3bG.gif

So what happened Friday? ... update chart - Note heavy Volume

7l9Bmq4.gif

Sym. : Close : change, Pct. : Day-Low -High : YrHigh: Fr.Yr.H(L)
SOXX 196.81: - 9.08, - 4.41%: 196.25-204.65 : 220.82 : - 10.9 % :
SPY -: 284.85: - 7.51, - 2.57%: 283.46-292.76 : 302.23 : - 5.75 % :
IWM : 145.43: - 4.80, - 3.07%: 144.93-150.11 : 173.39 : - 20.4 % :
TNA-: $49.55: - 4.95, - 9.08%: $49.03-$54.63 : $97.12 : - 49.0 % :
TZA-: $54.44: +4.55, +9.12%: $49.78-$54.94 : $39.02 : +39.5 % :
FAZ-: $40.56: +2.59, +6.82%: $37.77-$41.16 : $34.29 : +18.3 % :
VIX-: %19.87: +3.19, +19.1%: 16.04 -21.07% : %11.03 : +80.1 % :
OPTions:
s294p 10.59: +4.52, +74.5%:
F36C: $4.50: +1.72, +61.9%:
T47C: $8.00: +3.95, +97.5%:
T48C: $6.30: +2.30, +57.5%:
(Spy294p-9/20/19, Faz36C-9/20/19, Tza47C-9/20/19, Tza48C-9/27/19)
====

TZA. FAZ, VIX ... update / Individually: TZA:$54.44, FAZ:$40.56, VIX:$19.87

eQ3O8Qq.gif

IWM vs. SOXX, SPY ... fr. May-2018 : / $

MUBCupz.gif

=== original post follows:

( Anyone else paying attention to these potentially helpful indicators? )

I was POSTING about a possible Turn, a day before Wed's Drop

HERE is my Tuesday posting

========================

STOCK INDICES may be Rolling over.

IWM may soon follow SOXX (Semi-conductor Index) Lower ... update : SOXX vs SPY : SOXX: 185.86 - 1.17

   

ncIDWU5.gif

One way to bet on a drop, would be to buy this etf:

TZA / 3X BEAR etf on Russell 2000 (IWM) ... update : Last: $9.31 + 0.21, +2.31% // Compare : UKX

8OLYZqc.gif

I have some TZA March $9 calls - and a loss on them at this stage... I bought them a little to early, but still have profit potential

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BASED and "ready to Roll" - that might be "the BEAR etf's", TZA & FAZ

I Added these Links to Header: : tza vF 2 :

Chart of # 2 : FAZ & TZA tend to have similar movements, sometimes one leads the other

T0JIAJQ.gif

What are these?

FAZ = Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3x Shares (ETF) - if you think Bank stocks will drop
TZA = Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (ETF) - if you think stock, esp. the Russell 2000 will drop
 
The Russell has a higher beta than does the SPY, so a 3X Bear like TZA moves up fast when stocks drop.
I sometimes buy Calls on the TZA when I think stocks might drop
 
Like the past 2-3 days
 

 

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SOLD my TZA calls just now... as the Bearish move in Stocks may be waning

Most of them made me nearly a double

I bought at 73 cents, and sold out half at $1.35, and the other half at $1.48

SPY was near the Low of the day, and TZA near the day's high as I sold at $1.48 (+$9 = $10.48 underlying TZA)

Why?

SOXX +etc  vs. SPY, IWM ... $178.30 -0.79%, $272.65 -0.86%, $150.94 -0.45%/ TZA: $10.47 +1.47%

HCiVjQX.gif

The gap down on disappointing Employment figures may have taken the energy of of the slide.

SOXX opened much lower ($176.56) and is now well off its lows as SPY & IWM retest lows.

I take this as a potentially bullish indication. And I like to double my money (at least) on Option trades

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Exiting the trade proved to be a wise move, since IWM rose & TZA fell later

SOXX +etc  vs. SPY, IWM ... $179.51 -0.09%, $274.46 -0.20%, $150.94 -0.03%/ TZA: $10.32 +0.19%

MA6kOVO.gif

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On 3/9/2019 at 11:44 AM, drbubb said:

Exiting the trade proved to be a wise move, since IWM rose & TZA fell later

SOXX +etc  vs. SPY, IWM ... $179.51 -0.09%, $274.46 -0.20%, $150.94 -0.03%/ TZA: $10.32 +0.19%

MA6kOVO.gif

Russell 2000 : up: +23.67, +1.5% - Glad to be out of the TZA Calls

idx24_russell_en_2.gif

TZA: $9.84 - 0.46, -4.6%

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SHORT stocks again - & happy so far

IWN ran into some possible resistance, and I decided to enter a small options position, which is Bearish on stocks

BOT Apr.$9 Calls on TZA at $0.81, when TZA was about $9.60 - It closed at $9.65 -$0.12, -1.23%

SOXX - etc: IWM, & SPY ... 10d : $185.12 +$0.74, 0.40% (H: $186.69),  $154.98 +0.40%, $281.34 +0.66%

P6JNler.gif

It is a small position.  Hardly matters, less than 10% of the one I sold a a profit a few days earlier.

I will add to it, if I see a good set-up

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A great place for Stock Indices to stall out?

SOXX-etc . update: 10d - $189.16 -0.15%, IWM:$155.75 +0.64%, SPY:$282.33 +0.36% - ratio SPY/IWM: r-181.3%

ZaUuFlN.gif

Ratio SPY/IWM: r-181.3%

LS9VN8K.png

Ratio SPY/IWM: r-181.3%

x

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SOXX : $200 is a possible topping area. Let's see what comes next

SOXX ... chart / last: $200.65

K9Qv8r0.gif

D3a22A-WkAA0o1N-400x400.jpg

via @hks55:   Ray Dalio says the economy looks like 1937 and a downturn is coming in about two years

> https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-stock-market-and-economy-look-like-1937/

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Finally, A big drop in SOXX today :

211.09
Change:
arrow -4.60
Open:
214.97
High:
215.28
Low:
210.13
Volume:
247,398
Percent Change:
-2.13%

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SOXX often Peaks first, BEFORE other indices ... fr. 2/28/18 : 3/2017 : 1/2016 / 10d: iwm: spy : tza vF 2 :

CNiOous.gif

soxx etc - 10d

wDq0pFy.gif

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It Looks to me that a Top formation is underway.

I would probably want to see SOXX in clear falling channel (rather than a rising one before shorting SPY...or buying puts.)

Tn]he chart shows a battle between a Rising  & Falling  channel

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CHART incl. FTSE -100 "UKX"

IWM, SOXX,etc ... charts -  IWM, SOXX, SPY, UKX

6yNq9u9.gif

UKX to SPY Ratio ... Last:  r-000 ... Will FTSE Lead SPY Lower yet again ?

xx

==

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SOXX Dropped - have we got a possible SOXX Top in place yet? 

Time will tell. But the drop yesterday was on China-News related

SOXX - +etc ... 10d : +etc/10d :

BAqQrgi.gif

Compare Moves:

SOXX : 210.07 - 3.48, - 1.63%
SPY - : 292.82 - 1.21, - 0.41%
IWM -: 160.71 + 0.18, +0.11%
TZA -: $ 8.48 - 0.03, - 0.35%
FAZ -: $ 7.92 +0.09, +1.15%

SOXX- etc ... update : Viewing the chart below, I think at least one more rally is likely

X0s6y2t.gif

SOXX- three years

ewFo5n1.png

==

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SOXX Did precede this Stock drop!

SOXX ... update / Last: $180.15 -$2.85, -1.56% / SPX: $2,822.24 - $34.03, -1.18%

geIT0iY.gif

====

Meantime, HW of the Astrologers Fund says:

Henry Weingarten <afund@earthlink.net>
 
23 May at 08:39
 

If you attended any of our talks in last eight months, you knew this was going to be a  RED ALERT MAY with May 1/2 & May 22-26, 2019  highlighted.

1. MAY MARKETS                                                                    
2. UP STARS/DOWN STARS

3. GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES                        

4. QUOTES
5. ON THE WEB

6. LETTERS

 

  1. 1. YOU BET YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)  EPISODE TWO: DOES THE FAT LADY SINGS BEFORE JUNE?

    OUR RECOMMENDATION HAS BEEN TO RAISE CASH LEVELS, SELL INTO STRENGTH & LOCK IN PROFITS!

    Specifically, we recommended selling at 2954 May 1 [Tops 2954.13] and ,if covered, reselling 2945 SPX Friday May 3.

  • P1 2869 ACHIEVED
  • P2 2812 ACHIEVED
  • P3 2750?  Perhaps we will see this upcoming test this May??

 

WHY MAY? In addition to astro indicators, five more potential EARTHLY reasons beyond the FOMC May meeting & subpar UBER IPO:

  1. Future disappointing corporate earnings & forecasts (within a bifurcated stock market)
  2. US/China Trade Negotiations may not come soon, and that would mean more market volatility
  3. A classic “Sell in May and Go Away” (unlike last year)
  4. Assorted geopolitical swan events e.g. China, [Iran, UK, Turkey, N Korea, etc.]
  5. THE BIGGEST REASON IS THAT GIVEN MARKETS WERE AT RECORD LEVELS,

WE STILL DON’T SEE ANY STRONG EARTHLY (OR HEAVENLY) REASON FOR MARKETS TO MOVE MUCH HIGHER AT THIS POINT IN TIME!

 

Proper Valuations:

DJIA > 25000

SP > 2750

US$ ~ 98

UBER < 42

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TOPPING PROCESS underway?

The Lonely new high of the SPY

IWM, XLF, SPY etc ... update :

QA3qxfu.gif

SOXX-etc :

TnhwVnD.gif

FAZ & TZA ... update : Last:

PPojpNz.gif

Ratio: FAZ to-TZA

sKqCr20.png

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A POTENTIAL ROLLOVER may be confirmed today

SOXX often Peaks first, BEFORE other indices ... fr. 2/28/18 : 3/2017 : 1/2016 / 10d: iwm: spy : tza vF 2 :

XFVeeGA.png

10d:

pvzQoNY.gif

==

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SOXX often Peaks first, BEFORE other indices ... fr. 2/28/18 :

vMjzLjI.gif

10d:

8VcHUQX.gif

FAZ & TZA ... update : 10d : Last:

rLhtEFx.gif

: 10d :

gwKm1Mu.gif

==

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GOT SHORT STOCKS yesterday

Thru purchase of TZA Calls - End Aug. $42 Calls at $

IWM, the underlying index for TZA Bearish Calls, peaked last after SOXX and SPY

IWM vs. SOXX, SPY ... update : xx / $

PSTxPQt.gif

oEixgu8.gif

TZA / 3X Bear on Russell 2000 (IWM) ... 10d :

k7eHUeK.gif

==

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PEAKS : One after another...

SOXX, SPY, then IWM yesterday

Sym.: Close : change, Pct. : Day-Low - High : Yr.High: Fr.Yr.H(L)
SOXX: 209.58: - 7.19, -3.32%: 207.49: 215.46 : 220.82: - 5.09%
SPY -: 297.43: - 3.29, -1.09%: 295.20: 301.20 : 302.23 : - 1.59%
IWM-: 156.56: - 1.28, -0.81%: 155.55: 159.23 : 173.39 : - 9.71%
TNA-: $63.01: - 1.49, -2.31%: $61.77: $66.25 : $97.12 : - 35.1%
TZA-: $44.61: +1.02, +2.34%: $42.42: $45.45 : $39.02: +14.3%
FAZ-: $35.65: +0.64, +1.83%: $34.75: $36.23 : $34.29: +3.97%
====

IWM, spy, soxx ... 10d : xx

toptLOt.gif

TZA / 3X Bear etf ... 4-year : 1-year : TNA-1yr /

rgzyWGl.gif

TNA 3X Bull, the "flip side" of above, hit resistance at $66

TNA ... update : 12mo / Last: $63.01: - 1.49, -2.31%: $61.77: $66.25 :

fN32xrC.gif

==

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BOUGHT Puts again on Wed. & Thursday - Here is why...

(this investment in SPY puts, TZA & FAZ Calls got me on the right side of the Market BEFORE Friday's big drop)

The recent rally was reflected in a pullback in TZA & FAZ to support levels, ie 21d MA on wed/thi

BEAR Side: TZA & FAZ ... Jul.2017-toDate : fr.May2018 : Apr'19 / wed cl. xx / thu cl. xx

rwHfXNI.gif

Above was Wed./Thu when I put on my hedges.

Below is what happened next / in shorter time horizon... fr.May2018 : Apr'19 / wed cl. xx / thu cl. xx

rpa5sJD.gif

Stock rally ran out of gas - Low volume prior to the high vol. drop ... 3 mos

lmIs3bG.gif

So what happened Friday? ... update chart - Note heavy Volume

7l9Bmq4.gif

Sym. : Close : change, Pct. : Day-Low -High : YrHigh: Fr.Yr.H(L)
SOXX 196.81: - 9.08, - 4.41%: 196.25-204.65 : 220.82 : - 10.9 % :
SPY -: 284.85: - 7.51, - 2.57%: 283.46-292.76 : 302.23 : - 5.75 % :
IWM : 145.43: - 4.80, - 3.07%: 144.93-150.11 : 173.39 : - 20.4 % :
TNA-: $49.55: - 4.95, - 9.08%: $49.03-$54.63 : $97.12 : - 49.0 % :
TZA-: $54.44: +4.55, +9.12%: $49.78-$54.94 : $39.02 : +39.5 % :
FAZ-: $40.56: +2.59, +6.82%: $37.77-$41.16 : $34.29 : +18.3 % :
VIX-: %19.87: +3.19, +19.1%: 16.04 -21.07% : %11.03 : +80.1 % :
OPTions:
s294p 10.59: +4.52, +74.5%:
F36C: $4.50: +1.72, +61.9%:
T47C: $8.00: +3.95, +97.5%:
T48C: $6.30: +2.30, +57.5%:
(Spy294p-9/20/19, Faz36C-9/20/19, Tza47C-9/20/19, Tza48C-9/27/19)
====

TZA. FAZ, VIX ... update / Individually: TZA:$54.44, FAZ:$40.56, VIX:$19.87

2WUwPIh.gif

IWM vs. SOXX, SPY ... fr. May-2018 : / $

MUBCupz.gif

===

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From the Astrology Fund

Saturday, 24 August 2019, Henry Weingarten <afund@earthlink.net> wrote:
 

If you sold in May & went away SOON (TBD) time to return. Many weak market hands may be gone next week - especially if SPX 2825 does NOT hold.

Remember the adage "Buy when there is blood in the streets" so keep powder dry. We first nibble ~MOC

2950 Pivot S1 2925 S2 2790/2800 S3?

 

This was yesterday’s afternoon’s tweet.

Markets are being set up for the projected October Rally with unusual risk caveats from both China AND India/Pakistan (TBA).

 

Upside however may be limited to ~ SPX 3000-3100- thereafter we will lock in/hedge/raise cash for a largely trading market until Christmas.

When others will be buying (October?), we plan to sell whatever we don’t want into 2020, rather than the usual December time.

 

Most markets are performing as we forecast with the possible exception of our BIG Copper Play: Big rally H2 2019 (which is being delayed by the US/China spat AKA Trade War but that can change on a dime- September/October? 

 

Gold is good but getting highly overvalued, so would prefer now just to buy select under appreciated PM stocks to more physical gold above $1500.

While the Gold/Silver ratio will soon trade in Silver’s favor now circa 88 P1 85  P2 80, being also an economic metal, will delay its inevitable rise until global economic conditions improve (as which time Gold’s crisis role will also be reduced).

When markets are freak out like Friday, it is of course a good day trading buy to hedge long market positions.

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SOXX Upchannel is being tested

SOXX-etc ... update

ctKZqQ8.gif

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TZA closed Tuesday at $55 (+4.5%)

It could go a little higher ($57 ?)... Or a lot higher ($68 & beyond)

TZA / 3x Bear on IWM/ Russell 2000... update / Last :$55.00 +2.38, +4.52%/ IWM: $144.85 : Faz :

5sBdsS5.gif

I may take a portion of my TZA calls "off the table" if/when the TZA hits $57, and hold the rest for a deeper

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