Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Feb. 2019 Trading - v.121

Recommended Posts

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif :

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

SILVER? I bought a sizeable number of SLV Calls yesterday, and may add more silver exposure today

SIlver looks like it has a "W" shaped bottom in place

fEZxJpU.png

SLV ... Silver etf

m6o88vK.png

(chart from yesterday):

SIL ($26.35) - vs SLV, GLD ... update : SLV ($14.72, r-1.79) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%) : other AG :

sZymRLh.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This stock picker continues to outperform by using volatility as a ‘friend’

Amy Zhang, manager of the Alger Small Cap Focus Fund, explained last April how she had improved the fund’s performance since taking over the portfolio in 2015. She hasn’t lost her touch since that conversation.

Here’s a link to the April 2018 interview in which Zhang explained her stock-selection process in detail. Since April 11, the day before that interview was published, the Alger Small Cap Focus Fund’s class A shares AOFAX, +1.64%  have returned 19%, while the Russell 2000 Growth Index RUO, +1.63%  has declined 1.6%. (During that same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.49%  has returned 3.8% and the S&P 500 Index SPX, +1.29%  has returned 4.2%).

At the time of the first interview, the fund had $804 million in assets and a four-star rating from Morningstar for its class A shares. Since then, the fund has more than tripled to $2.7 billion in assets and now has a five-star rating (the highest) from Morningstar for class A.

That is remarkable, especially when you consider how painful the fourth-quarter price action was. During a follow-up interview last week, Zhang said: “The most important thing is letting the market serve us, use volatility as our friend and focus on risk/reward.”

As new money continued to pour into the fund, she would increase positions she felt represented the best value at that time, based on volatile price action.

“We do a lot of stress tests,” she said. “Having a solid bear price, when assumptions are so low/pessimistic — that is what I call a margin for safety. Understanding when to buy serves me very well. Buying low always works.”

She said that for three years, through Dec. 31, the fund captured 122% of the benchmark Russell 2000 Growth Index’s upside movement, while capturing only 80% of the downside.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stock-picker-continues-to-outperform-by-using-volatility-as-a-friend-2019-02-12?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SPY :  274.10 +3.48, +1.29%
IWM :  152.99 +1.89, +1.25%

6PnXeMe.gif

jaMFmTx.gif

(But LOOK at the volume!)

US stocks push higher as shutdown and trade talk fears ease

Financial Times-3 hours ago
US stocks ended the day higher on optimism over a tentative deal to avert another government shutdown and encouraging signs that the US ...

Here's why hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass thinks US stocks will be Lower...

MarketWatch-13 hours ago
My guess is by the end of the year the U.S. market will be lower than it is today,” Bass told Bloomberg in an interview that aired Monday.

US stocks surge on US-China trade deal optimism

Washington Post-5 hours ago
U.S. stocks marched broadly higher in afternoon trading Tuesday amid renewed optimism over the potential for a trade deal between the U.S. ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"The GREATEST MOVIE" ??

Here's a treat... a free film on Youtube,

Which has been called the "greatest movie" ever made

The Man From Earth 2007

Wiki Review: EXCERPT

The Man from Earth is a 2007 American drama science fiction film written by Jerome Bixby and directed by Richard Schenkman. It stars David Lee Smith as John Oldman, the protagonist. The screenplay was conceived by Jerome Bixby in the early 1960s and completed on his deathbed in April 1998.[2] The film gained recognition in part for being widely distributed through Internet peer-to-peer networks, which raised its profile. The film was later adapted by Schenkman into a stage play of the same name.

The plot focuses on John Oldman, a departing university professor, who claims to be a Cro-Magnon (or Magdalenian caveman) who has secretly survived for more than 14,000 years. The entire film is set in and around Oldman's house during his farewell party and is composed almost entirely of dialogue. The plot advances through intellectual arguments between Oldman and his fellow faculty members.

Reception

IGN gave it an 8 out of 10, calling it "intellectual sci-fi".[7]DVD Verdict criticized the heavy-handed ending, saying that one's opinion of the film would be shaped by views on religio

> wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_from_Earth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, drbubb said:

SPY :  274.10 +3.48, +1.29%
IWM :  152.99 +1.89, +1.25%

6PnXeMe.gif

jaMFmTx.gif

(But LOOK at the volume!)

US stocks push higher as shutdown and trade talk fears ease

Financial Times-3 hours ago
US stocks ended the day higher on optimism over a tentative deal to avert another government shutdown and encouraging signs that the US ...

Here's why hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass thinks US stocks will be Lower...

MarketWatch-13 hours ago
My guess is by the end of the year the U.S. market will be lower than it is today,” Bass told Bloomberg in an interview that aired Monday.

US stocks surge on US-China trade deal optimism

Washington Post-5 hours ago
U.S. stocks marched broadly higher in afternoon trading Tuesday amid renewed optimism over the potential for a trade deal between the U.S. ..

No reason why stocks should end up lower over the year if USD depreciates relative to assets. In fact all fiat currencies are depreciating rapidly and that is why stock markets the world over are rising despite the fundamentals being crappy. I'd say we will probably be still around these levels (after a lot of ranging/whipsawing) at the end of the year.

Possibly in the UK stocks at least we will continue a general rise into July to reach the top of the monthly range and then come back down the rest of the year to either the middle or bottom of the range. (FTSE 6580 - 7770)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it DEJA VU all over again for Canadian Oil & Gas shares?

CNQ / Can. Nat'l Res. vs.USO (oil), NGAS (natgas) ... 5yrs : 2yr :

EcYN1oK.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold has broken the downtrend & Resistance at $1300

Might SIL (silver share etf) be next  to breakout?

GLD (gold etf) versus SIL ... update : $123.37, $26.13

dj88suE.gif

Ratio: $26.13 / $123.37 = 21.2

z0bQvUs.png

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CONTRAST in Precious Metals

Gold jumped (+$4) as the USD dropped.

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

But Silver is still down for the day

silver.gif?0.6058618726160527

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Zuckerberg Bought me a new MacBook Laptop. Thanks Mark!

Well, not exactly. But the profits from FB puts covered the cost of the laptop which I bought recently.

(& I feel truly "virtuous" by winning when the FB price drops.)

I am OUT > I sold the FB puts at $10.50, for a profit of over 23% - so not a bad trade

With FB down $7 from where I bought the puts, a profit of only $2 is disappointing. (FB Volatility shrank!)

Still, I made money on these puts while the overall market was rising (so I am happy.)

I immediately SWAPPED into TZA-Calls, buying Mar.$9 Calls at $1.10, so my breakeven on TZA is $10.10.

TZA / 3X Bear on Russell-2000/ IWM ... TZA-v-FB : Tza-10d : $9.97 > my b/even is $10.10 or 1.3% higher

BJanJ8q.gif

That is equivalent to being SHORT: at about IWM-$153.50 x 0.996= $152.90

IWM - etf for Russell-2000 ... vs.FB : alone : spy / Last: $153.50

yTwZ2uw.gif

It will be interesting to see if the short on IWM will outperform a FB short from here/

(in edit) Here's the FB chart a little after the opening on Friday ... 10d chart / Last: $163.00 -0.59% on the day

AGU4rqz.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EUR0-Comms/ Oil shares, Gold, Silver :  fr.July '17 : 10d : 11/26: EUR turns can drive big moves

b4moHYr.gif

Gold has run ahead. SLV / Silver has lagged. Could EUR bottom here?

If so, we may see further upwards moves in Commodities

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GLOBAL RESET NEWS: This is WHY Central Banks Are Now HOARDING GOLD

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, drbubb said:

GLOBAL RESET NEWS: This is WHY Central Banks Are Now HOARDING GOLD

==

Including the Fed & BoE? Didn't they lease their gold to the bullion banks, so technically they don't own as much anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By the way, I added a "very useful" holding of Silver / SLV calls to my current TOP 5

- see charts: 5x

2iuhW4q.gif

WM.t  : 0.245 UNCH, +0.00% : disappointing, still digesting recent up moves perhaps
Gcm.t : $4.08 +0.08, +2.00%
GZZ.v : $0.37 +.025, +7.25%
(rzz.v) : 12.90 +0.24, +1.90%
MUX : $1.88  +0.09, +5.03%
SLV- : $14.82 +0.17, +1.16%
(Sil-) : $26.79 +0.34, +1.29%
(Gdxj): 32.95 +0.62, +1.92%
(Gld): 124.80 +0.74, +0.60%

Nice to see MUX getting a bid, at last ! - last $1.88.

Close Over $1.95-2.00 will be a breakout of sorts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RELATED?

Mortgage rates hit a 12-month low as economic expansion looks vulnerable MarketWatch

Dow and Nasdaq notch eighth straight weekly gains; S&P 500 logs third straight weekly win

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry for the Down time.

I had to change Nameservers, and that did not prove easy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatta Day! 

Best $-making day in a long time. (Despite the annoying server issues)

This worked
SIL 27.67 +0.88, +3.28% / update
B2kUhUY.gif

The others did well too. 

Top 5 : chart

Gcm.t : $4.42 +0.34, +8.33%
WM.t  : 0.255 +0.01, +4.08%
GZZ.v : $0.38 +0.01, +2.70%
(rzz.v) : 12.59 -0.31, -2.40% (don't own this. RZZ tends to lead GZZ)
MUX- : $1.95 +0.07, +3.72%
SLV - : 15.02 +0.20, +1.35%
(Sil-) : 27.67 +0.88, +3.28%
(Gdxj): 34.34 +1.39, +4.22% : for reference
(Gld): 126.70 +1.90, +1.52% : for reference

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, drbubb said:

Whatta Day! 

Best $-making day in a long time. (Despite the annoying server issues)

This worked
SIL 27.67 +0.88, +3.28% / update
B2kUhUY.gif

The others did well too. 

Top 5 : chart

Gcm.t : $4.42 +0.34, +8.33%
WM.t  : 0.255 +0.01, +4.08%
GZZ.v : $0.38 +0.01, +2.70%
(rzz.v) : 12.59 -0.31, -2.40% (don't own this. RZZ tends to lead GZZ)
MUX- : $1.95 +0.07, +3.72%
SLV - : 15.02 +0.20, +1.35%
(Sil-) : 27.67 +0.88, +3.28%
(Gdxj): 34.34 +1.39, +4.22% : for reference
(Gld): 126.70 +1.90, +1.52% : for reference

 

GCM was a surprise move for most based on Venezuelan assets I had no idea they owned! Certainly welcome, definitely unexpected.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes.

GCM.t: A very pleasant surprise for me too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's Not a Crash, THIS Is a Crash! Sydney, Melbourne Await "Housing Bloodbath"

House prices could fall by more than 40 per cent in the “worst crash since the 1890s depression”, a new report warns. We’re now in stage two of the “bloodbath”.

House prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall by up to 25 per cent this year alone and “there’s a chance they could fall by half” in the coming “property bloodbath”, an economist has warned.

LF Economics founder Lindsay David, who has been warning of the looming property crash for the past five years, said in a report today the recent house price falls were just the beginning.

CoreLogic data for January showed Sydney and Melbourne prices were now 12.3 per cent and 8.7 per cent down from their respective peaks in July and November 2017, with Melbourne falling at “the fastest rate ever seen”.

“We think there’s a chance property prices could fall by half in Sydney and Melbourne over the long run,” Mr David said. “I wouldn’t be surprised by falls of at least 40 per cent. When all hell breaks loose you’ve only got so many buyers out there.”

Growth in mortgage debt is sharply declining.

Growth in mortgage debt is sharply declining.Source:Supplied

Mr David bases his forecasts largely on the “debt accelerator”, which is strongly correlated with house price growth six months forward. Latest data indicates the debt accelerator is “falling sharply” in Sydney and Melbourne.

. . . Mr David’s report, Let the Bloodbath Begin, outlines no fewer than 18 separate headwinds facing the housing market, from the $120 billion interest-only loan rollover and mortgage broker exodus to the Labor Party’s proposed tax reforms.

He argues Australia is in stage two of a five-stage process as the country’s debt-financed asset bubble bursts. “The losses are going to mount, and start to mount faster because now you’ve got those economic headwinds involved with the bubble bursting,” he said.

The mindset in this stage is that the declines are “more than expected” but “orderly”. Stage three is when prices “fall well past thresholds owners are comfortable with”, banks take a further profit hit, more developers go under and construction job losses mount.

This is when “panic slowly starts to set in”, particularly among highly leveraged borrowers, and mindsets “eventually shift from denial to questioning how this can possibly be happening” as “nobody believed prices could fall by this much”.

“We are shifting from stage two of the bust to stage three,” Mr David said.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello Old Friend... Gold Nears $1,350 Resistance (That Has Repelled It 4 Times In 5 Years)

The past five years have been baffling for gold bugs. In an environment of massive central bank money creation, rising government deficits and a populist takeover of many countries’ political systems – all of which should be great for safe haven assets – gold has spiked to around $1,350 four times, only to be smacked back down each time. Very demoralizing.

And now it’s gearing up for another try.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has the Short-covering started?  MUX is starting to behave better

MUX: $1.99 + $0.07, +2.65% on 2.7Million shares, on a day when GDXJ was - 2.01%

xRg0ijI.gif

Ratio: MUX -to-GDXJ

RaBIdbR.png

Bottomed at 5.33%. Could it run up to 7.5% or so... maybe higher.

If GDXJ stays at $33.72, then that would be: $2.52.

MUX may need some good news to get there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow !  Tucker is really on the mark, with his latest!

TUCKER BLOWS THE WHISTLE ON IDENTITY POLITICS - At Last! Excellent! (& overdue)

Tucker Carlson Tonight on Fox News 2/21/19 [FULL]

x

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, drbubb said:

Has the Short-covering started?  MUX is starting to behave better

MUX: $1.99 + $0.07, +2.65% on 2.7Million shares, on a day when GDXJ was - 2.01%

xRg0ijI.gif

Ratio: MUX -to-GDXJ

RaBIdbR.png

Bottomed at 5.33%. Could it run up to 7.5% or so... maybe higher.

If GDXJ stays at $33.72, then that would be: $2.52.

MUX may need some good news to get there.

I think 2.5 wouldn't be a bad target. But I think if it got there, it would have a chance to run to 4. Difficult to believe but maybe rising gold price helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×