Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

Specialty Chemical, trading & logistics co's : VHI, NL, etc

Recommended Posts

Chemical trading co's : XLB, VHI, NL, ... etc

XLB / Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF ... update : $53.51

4QoN5l8.gif

Compare

NL-vs.: VHI, KRO, Che.ut.to ... update : fr.Jan.2015 :

VHI = 0.171 KRO + 0.104 NL = 17.1% x$12.61 + 11.9% x$3.55 = $2.156 + $0.424 = $2.58 at 1.17.2020

1QeF8bw.gif

KRO - etc ... update :

a2maEXD.gif

==

Symbol    Company------- Last :  PE-R : Yield : BkVal :  P-BV : D/Eq : E.ps :

KRO / Kronos Worldwide :  13.70 : 6.95 : 4.96% : $7.53 : 182% : 53-X :
KWR / Quaker Chemical : 202.69 : 64.7 : 0.73% : 32.35 : 627% : 12-X :
MTX / Minerals Tech.------ : 59.43 : 12.5 : 0.34% : 38.45 : 155% : 73-X :
NL    / NL Industries -------- : $3.80 : 33.8 : 13.2% : $5.99 : 63.% : 0.16 :
OMN/ Omnova Solutions :  $8.82 : 19.0 : - n/a - : 17.25 : 223% : 1.21 :
VHI  / Valhi, Inc.-------------  :   $3.47 : 3.44 : 2.31% : -0.05 : - N/a- : 80-X :
==== :

Websites
Kronos / KRO, NL / NL, VHI / VHI,

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 Best Specialty Chemical Stocks for This Year - Top Stocks - TheStreet

    Find the best specialty chemical stocks for this year. ...
    The following specialty chemical stocks are rated highest by our value-focused ... Best ETFs for 2019 ...

    Equity Top: Commodity Chemicals

     

    Symbol
    Equity
    Rating
    METHANEX CORP
    B
    OEC
    ORION ENGINEERED CARBONS SA
    B
    WESTLAKE CHEMICAL PRTNRS LP
    B
    LYB
    LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES NV
    B
    KRO
    KRONOS WORLDWIDE INC
    B-
    WLK
    WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORP
    B-
    CINER RESOURCES LP
    B-
    TSE
    TRINSEO SA
    B-
    OLN
    OLIN CORP
    C+
    CBT
    CABOT CORP
    C

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    What is THIS Chart?      (Prices as of 1.20.2020):

    VHI -vs.NL- etc ... 4yr 6mo: fr.Aug.20.2020 : 10d / $1.75, $3.55-NL, so 49.3% of NL - Half the price of NL

    VHI slid... as NL & KRO slid lower - All three were in downtrends at Jan. 2020

    TMDXh5Z.gif

    share is Backed by shares:
    VHI : $1.75 = 0.171 KRO + 0.104 NL = 17.1% x$12.61 + 11.9% x$3.55 = $2.156 + $0.424 = $2.58 (32.2% discount)
    NL  : $3.55 = 0.713 KRO + 0.22 CIX = 71.3% x$12.61 + 22.0% x$14.33 = $8.99 + $3.15   = $12.14 (70.8% discount)
    NL  : $3.55 = 0.713 KRO + 0.22 CIX = 71.3% x$12.61 + 22.0% x$14.33 = $8.99 + $3.15   = $12.14 (70.8% discount)

    BACKGROUND:

    Harold Simmons created the Valhi group ... & during his lifetime owned 100 Million shares

    101301388-3244261r.jpg?v=1532564560&w=70

    At December 31, 2018, Valhi,Inc. (NYSE:VHI) held approximately 50% of our outstanding common stock and a wholly-owned subsidiary of NL Industries, Inc (NYSE:NL) held approximately 30% of our common stock. Valhi owned approximately 83% of NL's outstanding common stock and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Contran Corporation held approximately 92% of Valhi's outstanding common stock.
    All of Contran's outstanding voting stock is held by a family trust established for the benefit of Lisa K. Simmons and Serena Simmons Connelly and their children, for which Ms. Simmons and Ms. Connelly are co-trustees, or is held directly by Ms .Simmons and Ms. Connelly or entities related to them. Consequently, Ms. Simmons and Ms. Connelly may be deemed to control Contran, Valhi, NL and us.
    Unless otherwise indicated, references in this report to WE, US or OUR refer to Kronos Worldwide, Inc.

    FpBhLsl.png: Timeline :

    Symbol    Company----- Last :  PE-R : Yield : BkVal : Sh-OS : Mkt.Cap : Vown : V-Val :
    KRO / Kronos W'wide :  13.70 : 6.95 : 4.96% : $7.53 : 116.M : $1590.M : 50% : $795.0M
    NL    / NL Industries - : $3.80 :  33.8 : 13.2% : $5.99 : 43.7M : $185.2M : 83% : $153.7M
    === / Valhi's share ---- : -------------------------------------------> ------------> ----------------------->$ 949M
    VHI / Valhi, Inc.---------  : $3.47 :  3.44 : 2.31% : -0.05 : 340.M : $1180.M : PctVV: 124% > DATA

    VHI / Valhi ... All data : $3.47

    6ADRHgk.gif

    NL / NL Industries ... all-data : Shows CYCLICALITY - peak every 6-7 years?

    kmBUVJY.gif

    KRO / Kronos WW ... all-data :

    09Kat4b.gif

    CIX ... all-data :

    IhaylWH.gif

    In 2012, Simmons sold off one of his previous companies, Timet... before he passed on

    Precision Castparts to Buy Titanium Metals for $2.9 Billion

    The Precision Castparts Corporation agreed on Friday to buy the Titanium Metals Corporation, an industrial parts maker whose majority owner is the Texas billionaire Harold Simmons, for about $2.9 billion in cash.

    Under the terms of the deal, Precision will pay $16.50 a share, nearly 43 percent above the closing price of Titanium Metals on Friday.

    The transaction will yield a big payday for Mr. Simmons, a veteran investor and prolific political donor who owns 45 percent of Titanium Metals, commonly known as Timet.

    article-2548331-1B0FA4B300000578-545_634

    (Note: Harold Simmons passed on in Dec. 2013, and Valhi is now control by his wife & daughter/s ?)

    120223_harold_simmons_605_kristenlong.jp

    Humble beginnings... and an appetite for acquisitions

    He would then go on to purchase a variety of banks across Texas, using one bank to finance the purchase of the other. This would give him the nickname “Dallas’ Most Evil Genius”, and he kept doing this. Once he got bored with banking, he looked to even larger things. Next he would attempt to take over Lockheed Martin, and he eventually acquired a 20% stake in the company. From there, the list of companies that Simmons controlled or owned is pretty absurd: Muse Air, Valhi Inc., Amalgamated Sugar, Contran Corporation, and much more. These companies would eventually contribute to his massive net worth, and he would eventually become a multi-billionaire.

    > https://worthly.com/richest/harold-simmons-rose-poverty-10-billion-tycoon/

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    VHI Ratios

    VHI to KRO

    lPvgN6G.png

    VHI to NL

    OIhWWOj.png

    VHI to XLB

    hfuAw5z.png

    ==

     

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    CHE / ChemTrade - Q3- Pg.23

    OUTLOOK : We remain confident...
    that our portfolio of businesses, business model and our strong balance sheet will allow us to comfortably sustain our distributions and increase our financial flexibility by reducing leverage

    > http://www.chemtradelogistics.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Q3-2018_CLIF_Report.pdf

    m3F4RtM.png

    Particularly interested in caustic soda and hydrochloric acid markets in the north-west
    HYDROCHLORIC ACID
    + Regaining strength
    CAUSTIC SODA
      + Demand remains firm, pricing continues to have upward momentum (despite recent volatility)
    + Strong pricing forecast at least through 2023

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Chemtrade loses $131.51M from 2018 continuing ops

    2-13-2019

    Revenue from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $390.8-million, which was $4.1-million higher than the fourth quarter of 2017, largely due to higher revenues in the water solutions and specialty products (WSSC) segment.

    Net loss from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $97.2-million, compared with net earnings from continuing operations of $45.5-million in 2017, which included a tax recovery of $61.5-million compared with $10.7-million in 2018. During the fourth quarter of 2018, a goodwill impairment of $90.0-million related to the water products business was recorded.

    Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) from continuing operations (1) for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $65.0-million compared with $61.5-million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The increase in adjusted EBITDA is mainly attributable to lower corporate costs, including lower incentive compensation accruals.

    Cash flows from operating activities were $79.9-million compared with $62.2-million during the fourth quarter of 2017. Adjusted cash flows from operating activities from continuing operations (1) were $48.7-million compared with $41.4-million generated during the fourth quarter of 2017. Distributable cash after maintenance capital expenditures from continuing operations (1) for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $17.3-million or 19 cents per unit compared with $6.7-million or seven cents per unit in 2017.

    . . .

    Chemtrade's president and chief executive officer, Mark Davis, said: "Our results for 2018 were disappointing and reflect the challenges we faced during the year. We took action on most of these issues, which will drive improvements in 2019 and future years. It's clear that improved execution by Chemtrade and our suppliers will improve results and remains our key focus."

    In the fourth quarter of 2018, the sulphur products and performance chemicals (SPPC) segment generated revenue of $129.1-million, essentially the same as the $129.0-million generated in 2017. However, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $17.3-million, which was $7.1-million lower than 2017. From a revenue perspective, higher prices for merchant sulphuric acid helped to offset the impact of lower volumes due to reduced availability of merchant sulphuric acid supply. The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was driven by several factors. From a merchant acid perspective, margins were flat despite the revenue increase due to lower volume, contractual sharing some of the price increases with suppliers, and higher raw material and freight costs. Adjusted EBITDA was negatively affected by unplanned downtime at a few customers' sites and an extended maintenance outage at a regen customer. Results were also negatively affected by an extended outage at one of Chemtrade's large regen plants, which resulted in higher costs to outsource the processing of a customer's product.

    The WSSC segment reported fourth quarter revenue of $102.4-million compared with $95.2-million in 2017. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.9-million compared with $15.0-million generated in 2017. The increased revenue was mainly due to higher volumes and selling prices of water products. However, despite increasing prices, the rising raw materials costs continue to squeeze margins. Margins are expected to improve as contracts are renewed at prices reflecting the higher raw material costs. During the quarter, two specialty chemicals customers (for potassium chloride (KCl) and phosphorus pentasulphide (P2S5)) significantly reduced their purchases. A return to historic buying levels is expected once the customers' inventory levels are normalized, although in the case of KCl this may take over one year. Therefore, additional sales opportunities are being actively pursued. Until recently, this business's facility was operating at full capacity.

    The electrochemicals (EC) segment reported revenue of $159.3-million and adjusted EBITDA of $46.2-million for the fourth quarter, both of which were close to levels achieved in 2017. Lower caustic prices were offset by higher hydrochloric (HCl) acid prices. However, a sudden downturn in demand for HCl late in the second half of the quarter led to lower production of chlor-alkali. Although there has been some volatility in caustic soda prices recently, the long-term forecast for caustic soda pricing remains favourable.

    / 2 / From Feb 8th:

    Globe says Chemtrade unit price seen recovering

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    The "excess" in VHI has evaporated

    VHI-etc ... update : $2.37 vs. $4.22

    GfJ4Wmg.gif

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    CHE.Un / Chemtrade - Q1 Results

    Chemtrade loses $29.3-million in Q1

    2019-05-08

    The first quarter results also include an increase of $40.0 million in the reserve for legal proceedings ("Litigation Reserve") established in 2018 to cover the costs of resolving the civil actions commenced against General Chemical entities

    EXCERPT

    Net loss for the first quarter of 2019 was $29.3 million, compared with net earnings of $6.9 million in 2018. The decrease was primarily due to the Litigation Reserve booked in the first quarter of 2019, and higher net finance costs due to a loss from the change in the fair value of convertible debentures, partially offset by higher income tax recoveries during the first quarter of 2019 compared to the first quarter of 2018.

    Excluding the Litigation Reserve, Adjusted EBITDA(1) for the first quarter of 2019 was $84.0 million compared with $72.0 million in the first quarter of 2018. The increase in Adjusted EBITDA is mainly attributable to the adoption of IFRS 16, which amounted to $14.6 million, offset by lower Adjusted EBITDA in the EC and Corporate segments.

    Cash flows used in operating activities were $53.5 million compared with cash flows from operating activities of $35.0 million during the first quarter of 2018. Adjusted cash flow from operating activities(1) was $11.5 million compared with $54.1 million generated during the first quarter of 2018. Distributable cash after maintenance capital expenditures(1) (excluding the Litigation Reserve) for the first quarter of 2019 was $42.5 million or $0.46 per unit compared with $44.2 million or $0.48 per unit in 2018.

    Chemtrade President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Davis, said, "Our SPPC segment benefited from higher selling prices for sulphuric acid and improved efficiencies as we are starting to benefit from the restructuring of the business following a significant reduction in the product we receive from our largest by-product supplier.

    > https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aCHE-2756231&symbol=CHE&region=C

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    NL & VHI ... update : $3.47 -0.11 / $2.23 +0.10 = V/N: R-xx%

    V6dbBeQ.gif

    Ratio: $2.23 / $3.47 = V/N: R-64.3%

    h4YdvEN.png

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    CHARTS & Statistics Compared

    VHI -vs.NL- etc ... 4yr 6mo: 10d / $1.75, $3.55, C$11.24

    VHI = 0.171 KRO + 0.104 NL = 17.1% x$12.61 + 11.9% x$3.55 = $2.156 + $0.424 = $2.58
    NL . = 0.713 KRO + 0.22 CIX = 71.3% x$12.61 + 22.0% x$14.33 = $8.99 + $3.15   = $12.14

    Zi09G9f.gif

     6mo: 10d / $1.75, $3.55, C$11.24

    MH6ThDK.gif

    Ratio: VHI-toNL : $1.75 to $3.55= 49.3%

    TM5nFNz.png

    Statistics

    Symbol    Company------- :  Last :  PE-R : Yield : BkVal:  P-BV : D/Eq: E.ps : MkCap: EntVal.: Ebitda: EV/Ebi.
    VHI  / Valhi, Inc.—————- :   $1.75 : 10.7 : 4.55% : -0.06 : - N/a-: 80-X : $0.16: $594.M: 2.59B : 205.M: r-12.7:
    NL    / NL Industries———-:   $3.55 : 7.77 : 0.00% : $6.18 : 57.% : 0.15 : $0.46: $173.M : 86.5M: 15.2M: r-5.68:
    KRO / Kronos Worldwide- :   12.61 : 14.4 : 5.61% : $7.32 : 172% : 55-X: $0.88: $1.46B: $1.54B: 194.M: r-7.93:
    Che.ut ChemTrade Logist.C$11.24: -n/a : 10.8% : $8.66 : 130% : 192x: (1.99): $1.04B: $2.57B: 286.M: r-9.01:
    OMN/ Omnova Solutions- :  10.12 : 56.5 : - n/a - : $1.31 : 773% : 557x:
    MTX / Minerals Tech.------- :  58.87 : 14.1 : 0.34% : 40.24 : 146% : 71-X :
    KWR / Quaker Chemical— : 169.04: 98.7 : 0.90% : 67.79 : 249% : 74-X: $1.71: $3.00B: $3.77B: 134.M: r-28.1:
    ==== :

    Symbol:  Company---- Last :  PE-R : Yield : BkVal : Sh-OS : Mkt.Cap: DebtOS:Vown : V-Value: perV.sh(340m)
    KRO / Kronos W'wide : 12.61 : 14.4 : 5.61% : $7.32: 116.M : $1460.M : $466M:  50% : $730.0M: $2.15
    NL    / NL Industries - : $3.55 : 33.8 : 0.00% : $6.18: 48.8M : $173.1M : $001M:  83% : $143.7M: $0.42
    === / Valhi's share ---- : ------------------------------------------> ----------> -------------------------------------> $873.7M: $2.57
    VHI / Valhi, Inc.---------  : $1.75 : 10.7 : 4.55% : -0.06 : 339.M : $597.1M : $805M: PctVV: 124% >
    KRO / Kronos W'wide : 12.61 : 14.4 : 5.61% : $7.32 : 116.M : $1460.M : $466M: 30% : $438.0M:  $8.98 per NL sh
    CIX  / Comp-X.            : 14.33 : 11.6 : 1.67% : 12.85 : 12.4M : $178.3M : $000M: 87% : $155.1M:  $3.17 = $12.15
    === / NL share --------- : ------------------------------------------> ----------> -------------------------------------> $593.1M: $12.15

    VHI / Valhi ... All data : $3.47 prev. Value

    NL-vs.: VHI, KRO, Che.ut.to ... update : fr.Jan.2015 : Jan.2016 : 4yr:

    1QeF8bw.gif

    Kronos Worldwide,Inc. (NYSE:KRO) (Kronos), incorporated in Delaware in1989, is a leading global producer and marketer of value-added titanium dioxide pigments, or TiO2, a base industrial product used in a wide range of applications. We, along with our distributors and agents, sell and provide technical services for our products to approximately 4,000 customers in 100 countries with the majority of sales in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific.

    We believe we have developed considerable expertise and efficiency in the manufacture, sale, shipment and service of our products in domestic and international markets.TiO2 is a white inorganic pigment used in a wide range of products for its exceptional durability and its ability to impart whiteness, brightness and opacity. TiO2 is a critical component of everyday applications, such as coatings, plastics and paper, as well as many specialty products such as inks, food and cosmetics. TiO2 is widely considered to be superior to alternative white pigments in large part due to its hidin ower (oropacity), which is the ability to cover or mask other materials effectively and efficiently.

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    BOT some Valhi shares, @ just under $1.75 (0.08 div= 4.57%)

    VHI etc ... 1-yr / fr. 1.22.2019 : 10d /

    2tm0xzz.gif

    Ratio : VHI to CIX: 10.4% - at near 10%, this looks "too cheap" "at the bottom" of a range

    LnEO8no.png

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Kronos Worldwide: Dividend Remains A Strong Calling Card

    Summary / Individual TraderApr. 24, 2019

    Dividend is well over 5%.

    Stock trading at just over 8 times earnings.

    Balance sheet remains strong.

    • Vasily ZyryanovJan. 21, 20194 Comments
      Summary

      TiO2 (or titania) is a crucial and nearly irreplaceable pigment, needed primarily as the economy evolves and consumption expands.

      Titanium dioxide market is highly competitive and tough to enter. Existing players are protected from interventions while battling for their share among each other. Nevertheless, this business is highly cyclical.

      Industrial output decline and a global economic slowdown could lead to lower TiO2 demand.

      In Q3 2018, high feedstock prices led to a contraction of margins.

      Kronos is ahead of peers regarding FCF, liquidity, lower leverage; 6.7x P/E and 3.5x EV/EBITDA signalize undervaluation.

      Kronos Worldwide (KRO), a bellwether of titanium dioxide industry, had a tough year. Regarding one-year returns Kronos underperformed the U.S. chemicals industry, lost 51.7% of market capitalization and expectedly failed to beat S&P

       
    • William DanielMar. 31, 20182 Comments
      Summary

      Titanium dioxide (TiO2) prices have recovered after many years of pain in the industry.

      Expected cost increases for sulfate and chloride production methods have caused investors to flee TiO2 producers prematurely.

      Kronos is trading at a strong relative valuation. I consider the company a BUY.

      Founded in 1916, Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:KRO) is one of the largest producers of titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigments in the world. The holding company Valhi (NYSE:VHI) reports an 80%

       
    • small_pic.png
    • Stephen CastellanoNov. 25, 201727 Comments
       
    • small_pic.png
    • Jack BanserMay 20, 20159 Comments

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    6 Reasons To Avoid Kronos Worldwide

    • Freedom in RetirementNov. 18, 201916 Comments
      Summary

      KRO is a titanium dioxide producer and marketer. Prices of this chemical continue to decline. The company is boosting volume to counter the negative effect from lower prices.

      Revenue has barely increased for Q3 over the past seven years.

      The operational performance is weakening.

      The prospects for Kronos Worldwide (KRO) look bearish despite the significant 45% rally from the lows in August. There are several concerns that investors should weigh carefully before committing capital to KRO.

       
    • Vasily ZyryanovSep. 2, 2019
    Summary

    In 1H19, while feedstock prices went up, Kronos Worldwide faced issues as gross margin plummeted and took a toll on operating profit and cash flows.

    Higher tax rate hammered LTM EPS, which is around 2-year lows.

    The unfavorable working capital change led to negative half-year FCF.

    Nevertheless, as a producer of a nearly irreplaceable "quality-of-life" product with robust position on the market, Kronos has bright long-term prospects.

    It has been a while since I covered Kronos Worldwide (KRO), a prominent global producer and marketer of value-added titanium dioxide pigments, for the first time. Back then in January 2019, I attracted

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    VALHI Group, Dividend Flows

    Zq7lz3k.png

    Stock: In flows - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - / Out flows - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - / Net inflow - - - - - per sh.

    VHI - : KROx 58Mx 0.72= $41.8M / VHI x 339Mx 0.08= $27.1M / +$14.7M /339= $0.04 VHI

    NL.  - : KROx 35Mx 0.72= $25.2M /                                                  /

    - - - - - : CIX x 11Mx 0.27= $   3.0M / NL.  x  49Mx 0.00= $00.0M / +$28.2M / 49= $0.58 NL

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    KRO may fall a little lower before it hits the uptrend

    KRO / Kronos Worldwide ... 10yr : / Last: $11.37 -0,03, 6.33% yield

    t4A9YEO.gif

    Meantime, VHI ($1.69 -0.01) and NL ($3.58 +0.10) seem to have found support

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    CHE.ut.T / $9.47 -0.87, -8.41%

    CHEMTRADE LOGISTICS INCOME FUND ISSUES 2020 GUIDANCE

    Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund has issued 2020 guidance.

    2020 guidance

    Chemtrade expects its 2020 adjusted EBITDA (net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization excluding net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization) (1) to range between $300-million and $350-million.

    Chemtrade's guidance is based on numerous assumptions. Certain key assumptions that underpin the guidance are as follows:

    • None of the principal manufacturing facilities (as set out in Chemtrade's annual information form) incur significant unplanned downtime;
    • Key assumptions in the electrochemicals (EC) segment are as follows:
      • North American metric electrochemical unit (MECU) production volume of approximately 190,000 tonnes;
      • A 2020 average caustic soda price based on the 2020 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index being $15 (U.S.) per tonne lower than the 2019 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index;
      • North American production volume of sodium chlorate of approximately 420,000 tonnes;
    • A foreign exchange rate of 77 U.S. cents per $1 (Canadian);
    • Chemtrade also expects:
      • Maintenance capital expenditures to range between $80-million and $90-million;
      • Lease payments to range between $55-million and $60-million;
      • Cash interest (excluding the impact of international financial reporting standard 16) to range between $70-million and $75-million;
      • Cash taxes to range between $5-million and $10-million.

    Two thousand twenty's adjusted EBITDA range is below that of 2019 due to the following reasons:

    1. A higher number of maintenance turnarounds in 2020 relative to 2019, particularly the biennial turnaround at the North Vancouver chlor-alkali facility and a major turnaround at a key refinery customer that takes place once every five years;
    2. The assumption for spot northeast Asia caustic index is that the 2020 average will be below the 2019 average; this index value is a key variable in establishing Chemtrade's selling price for caustic soda;
    3. An assumption that there will not be a recovery in hydrochloric acid (HCl) demand from the higher netback fracking industry; the amount of realized netback revenue is typically higher from the fracking industry than from the industrial market; however, the industrial market is less cyclical; to increase stability, Chemtrade added more industrial customers partway through 2019; thus, the 2020 guidance includes a full year of the lower realized netback revenue as compared with 2019.

    Commenting on the guidance for 2020, Mark Davis, president and chief executive officer of Chemtrade, said: "Generally, our businesses are performing well, but 2020 will be affected by a biennial turnaround at our North Vancouver chlor-alkali plant and by a once-every-five-year turnaround by a key refinery customer. Also, while we are assuming near-term caustic soda weakness, we continue to believe that the long-term fundamentals for caustic soda, particularly in NE Asia, remain favourable."

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    EATING some KRO... Actually, I bought Calls on Kronos yesterday (Friday)

    Bought March $10C at $1.10 = Breakeven is $11.10 / Div. $0.72: for Yield: 6.48%. BkVal: $

    KRO / Kronos W'wide ... from Jan.2019: Jan. 2016: 10d / Last: $10.84 - 0.44, PER: 13.35, Yield: 6.64% (Div. $0.72)

    7PmjLcH.gif

    : fr. Jan. 2016 / Last: $10.84 -

    GNND5ex.gif

    May pair-trade around my positions in VHI and KRO.  Here's the ratio:

    RATIO: VHI-to KRO : 15.3%

    https://imgur.com/XtYVomeXtYVome.png

    ==

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    PAIRS-trading The Valhi-KROnos Group

    VHI-etc ... fr. Jan.2019 : Jan.2016 / Last: VHI: $1.66. NL: $3.36 (202%). KRO-nos: $10.84 (r-6.53)

    6XrhT2F.gif

    : Jan.2016 /

    84gbZKL.gif

    Ratio Suggests... Possible set-up for explosive rally in VHI, back from 202% 1o 100% maybe?

    TYTij85.png

    Date----- :   VHI-- : NL-- : $Gap : Ratio-- / KROnos ratio%/ Dv.80 : Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields:
    BookVal. : ($0.06): $ 6.18: NMF-: NMF % / $ 7.38 =====. /  72cts.: 08cts. 9.00x : R-div. :
    Earns/sh.:  $ 0.18: $ 0.46: $0.28: r256. % / $ 0.88 =====. /
    Dividends: $0.08 : $0.00 : $0.08: NMF.% / $0.72 :  r-9.00/
    01/31/20 : $ 1.66: $ 3.36: $1.70: r202.4%/ $10.84: r-6.53/ 6.64% 4.82% 1.82%: r1.378
    12/31/19 : $ 1.87: $ 3.91: $2.04: r209.1%/ $13.40: r-7.17 / 5.37% 4.28%: 1.09%:  r1.254
    09/30/19 : $ 1.90: $ 3.76: $1.86: r197.9%/ $12.37: r-6.51 / 5.82% 4.21%: 1.61%: r1.382
    06/28/19 : $ 2.97: $ 3.65: $0.68: r122.9%/ $15.32: r-5.16 / 4.70% 2.69%: 2.10%: r1.747
    12/31/18 : $ 1.93: $ 3.51: $1.58: r181.9%/ $11.52: r-5.96 / 6.25% 4.15%: 2.10%:  r1.506
    12/29/17 : $ 6.17: $14.25 $8.08: r230.9%/ $25.77: r-4.18 / 2.79% 1.30%: 1.49%: r2.146
    12/30/16 : $ 3.46: $ 8.15: $4.69: r235.5%/ $11.94: r-3.45 / 6.03%
    12/31/15 : $ 1.34: $ 3.04: $1.70: r226.9%/ $  5.64: r-4.21 /

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    KRO Bounced (+3.4%) at last, helping NL (+5.4%)

    KRO-etc: fr. Dec.2018 / Last:$11.21 +$0.37, +3.41%, vol. 193.9k

    mGGeB1d.gif

    NL ... 12mo./ Last: $3.54 +$0.18, +5.36% vol.15.0k / O:3.36, H:3.75, L:3.33 / VHI was UNCH.: 1.66, vol. 67.5k

    uIxgRFr.gif

    If ChemTrade Logistics is a bellwether - It is still sliding

    CHE.ut.TO / ChemTrade ... fr.Jun.2017: Oct.2018 / Last: C$9.10 -0.28, -2.99% vol. 678.7k /Yr.range: C$8.01-12.00

    lv8gbuh.gif

    : Oct.2018 / Last: C$9.10

    w7rgUlZ.gif

    Ratio: CHE.ut-to vs-KRO: 81.2% (55% > 105% 3 yr. Range)

    UIJtJ47.png

    ===

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    UPDATED Stats, after recent price falls > Does CHE's Ebitda target a little over $7.00?

    CHE.ut ... All-data: w/KRO / Last: C$9.10

    BxK98QZ.gif

    : w/KRO / Ratio: CHE.ut-to vs-KRO: 81.2% (55% > 105% 3 yr. Range)

    T1GeEx7.gif

    Symbol    Company------- :  Last :  PE-R : Yield : BkVal:  P-BV : D/Eq: E.ps : MkCap: EntVal.: Ebitda: EV/Ebi.
    Che.ut ChemTrade Logist.: C$9.10: -n/a : 12.5% : $8.66 : 105% : 192x: (1.99): $843M: $2.40B: 286.M: r-8.41:
    KRO / Kronos Worldwide- :   11.21 : 12.8 : 6.55% : $7.32 : 153% : 55-X: $0.88: $1.30B: $1.33B: 194.M: r-6.88:
    NL    / NL Industries———-:   $3.54 : 7.75 : 0.00% : $6.18 : 57.% : 0.15 : $0.46: $171.M: $77.3M:15.2M: r-5.07:
    VHI  / Valhi, Inc.—————- :   $1.66 : 10.1 : 4.76% : -0.06 : - N/a-: 80-X : $0.16: $563.M: $1.90B : 205.M: r-9.29:

    Average EV/EBI. (4 cos)= r-7.41, (3 cos, ex.VHI): r-6.79. Yield: (4cos): 5.95% (3 cos, ex.NL): 7.94%.

    CHE fell from C$11.40 to $9.10 (-xx% after THIS announcement... adj. Ebitda to be "below"(??)  last year's ($286M reported, above)

    $300M x 7.41= EntVal: $2.22B Est. - (Net Debt: $1.56B) = MktCap: $660M / 93M shs = C$7.10 per share

    ISSUES seem very specific to CHE ... ie their "turnaround timing"

    Chemtrade expects its 2020 adjusted EBITDA (net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization excluding net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization) (1) to range between $300-million and $350-million.

    Chemtrade's guidance is based on numerous assumptions. Certain key assumptions that underpin the guidance are as follows:

    • None of the principal manufacturing facilities (as set out in Chemtrade's annual information form) incur significant unplanned downtime;
    • Key assumptions in the electrochemicals (EC) segment are as follows:
      • North American metric electrochemical unit (MECU) production volume of approximately 190,000 tonnes;
      • A 2020 average caustic soda price based on the 2020 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index being $15 (U.S.) per tonne lower than the 2019 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index;
      • North American production volume of sodium chlorate of approximately 420,000 tonnes;
    • A foreign exchange rate of 77 U.S. cents per $1 (Canadian);
    • Chemtrade also expects:
      • Maintenance capital expenditures to range between $80-million and $90-million;
      • Lease payments to range between $55-million and $60-million;
      • Cash interest (excluding the impact of international financial reporting standard 16) to range between $70-million and $75-million;
      • Cash taxes to range between $5-million and $10-million.

    Two thousand twenty's adjusted EBITDA range is below that of 2019 due to the following reasons:

    Commenting on the guidance for 2020, Mark Davis, president and chief executive officer of Chemtrade, said: "Generally, our businesses are performing well, but 2020 will be affected by a biennial turnaround at our North Vancouver chlor-alkali plant and by a once-every-five-year turnaround by a key refinery customer. Also, while we are assuming near-term caustic soda weakness, we continue to believe that the long-term fundamentals for caustic soda, particularly in NE Asia, remain favourable."

    ===

    Date ET Symbol Price Type Headline
    2020-01-31 00:05 C:CHE 9.60 News Release Chemtrade revises time of 2019 conference call
    2020-01-30 10:08 C:CHE 9.61 News Release Chemtrade Logistics to release 2019 results Feb. 20
    2020-01-27 18:26 C:CHE 10.85 News Release Chemtrade estimates 2020 adjusted EBITDA of $300M

    ===

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    JUMP in VHI (+6%)... as KRO continues its recent bounceback /or Climb

    KRO vs- VHI, NL... 6mo: fr.Aug.2019: 3mo: 10d / Last: $11.53

    Sym.: Last$ : $chg. : % chg. / Yr.Low: %Off L./ $Div. : Yield: PE-R: EP.sh:
    KRO : $11.53 +0.33, + 2.95%/ $9.65 : +19.5%/ $0.72: 6.24%: 13.1 : $0.88:
    VHI  : $ 1.75 +0.09, + 5.42% / $1.65  : +6.06%/ $0.08: 4.57%: 10.9: $0.16:
    NL - : $ 3.52 + 0.14, + 4.14% / $3.04  : +15.8%/ $0.00: 0.00%: 7.65: $0.46:
    VtoN: 49.7%
    Che: C$8.83 - 0.09, - 1.01% / $ 8.01 : +10.2%/ $1.20: 13.59%: -n/a : (1.99)
    CtoK: 76.6%

    movPxeY.gif

    6mo: fr.Aug.2019: 3mo: 10d / Last: $11.53

    aTIT9BU.gif

    Share this post


    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    Sign in to follow this  

    ×