drbubb Posted February 2, 2019 Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 Chemical trading co's : XLB, VHI, NL, ... etc May 2019: w/KRO: w/XLB: 10d / Last: $19.60 +0.85 / KRO: $15.00 XLB / Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF ... update : $53.51 Compare NL-vs.: VHI, KRO, Che.ut.to ... update : fr.Jan.2015 : VHI = 0.171 KRO + 0.104 NL = 17.1% x$12.61 + 11.9% x$3.55 = $2.156 + $0.424 = $2.58 at 1.17.2020 KRO - etc ... update : == Symbol Company------- Last : PE-R : Yield : BkVal : P-BV : D/Eq : E.ps : KRO / Kronos Worldwide : 13.70 : 6.95 : 4.96% : $7.53 : 182% : 53-X : KWR / Quaker Chemical : 202.69 : 64.7 : 0.73% : 32.35 : 627% : 12-X : MTX / Minerals Tech.------ : 59.43 : 12.5 : 0.34% : 38.45 : 155% : 73-X : NL / NL Industries -------- : $3.80 : 33.8 : 13.2% : $5.99 : 63.% : 0.16 : OMN/ Omnova Solutions : $8.82 : 19.0 : - n/a - : 17.25 : 223% : 1.21 : VHI / Valhi, Inc.------------- : $3.47 : 3.44 : 2.31% : -0.05 : - N/a- : 80-X : ==== : Websites Kronos / KRO, NL / NL, VHI / VHI, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 2, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 2, 2019 10 Best Specialty Chemical Stocks for This Year - Top Stocks - TheStreet https://www.thestreet.com/topic/21482/top-rated-equity-chemical-companies.html Find the best specialty chemical stocks for this year. ... The following specialty chemical stocks are rated highest by our value-focused ... Best ETFs for 2019 ... Equity Top: Commodity Chemicals Symbol Equity Rating MEOH METHANEX CORP B OEC ORION ENGINEERED CARBONS SA B WLKP WESTLAKE CHEMICAL PRTNRS LP B LYB LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES NV B KRO KRONOS WORLDWIDE INC B- WLK WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORP B- CINR CINER RESOURCES LP B- TSE TRINSEO SA B- OLN OLIN CORP C+ CBT CABOT CORP C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 What is THIS Chart? (Prices as of 1.20.2020): VHI -vs.NL- etc ... 4yr : 6mo: fr.Aug.20.2020 : 10d / $1.75, $3.55-NL, so 49.3% of NL - Half the price of NL VHI slid... as NL & KRO slid lower - All three were in downtrends at Jan. 2020 share is Backed by shares:VHI : $1.75 = 0.171 KRO + 0.104 NL = 17.1% x$12.61 + 11.9% x$3.55 = $2.156 + $0.424 = $2.58 (32.2% discount)NL : $3.55 = 0.713 KRO + 0.22 CIX = 71.3% x$12.61 + 22.0% x$14.33 = $8.99 + $3.15 = $12.14 (70.8% discount)NL : $3.55 = 0.713 KRO + 0.22 CIX = 71.3% x$12.61 + 22.0% x$14.33 = $8.99 + $3.15 = $12.14 (70.8% discount) BACKGROUND: Harold Simmons created the Valhi group ... & during his lifetime owned 100 Million shares At December 31, 2018, Valhi,Inc. (NYSE:VHI) held approximately 50% of our outstanding common stock and a wholly-owned subsidiary of NL Industries, Inc (NYSE:NL) held approximately 30% of our common stock. Valhi owned approximately 83% of NL's outstanding common stock and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Contran Corporation held approximately 92% of Valhi's outstanding common stock. All of Contran's outstanding voting stock is held by a family trust established for the benefit of Lisa K. Simmons and Serena Simmons Connelly and their children, for which Ms. Simmons and Ms. Connelly are co-trustees, or is held directly by Ms .Simmons and Ms. Connelly or entities related to them. Consequently, Ms. Simmons and Ms. Connelly may be deemed to control Contran, Valhi, NL and us. Unless otherwise indicated, references in this report to WE, US or OUR refer to Kronos Worldwide, Inc. : Timeline : Symbol Company----- Last : PE-R : Yield : BkVal : Sh-OS : Mkt.Cap : Vown : V-Val : KRO / Kronos W'wide : 13.70 : 6.95 : 4.96% : $7.53 : 116.M : $1590.M : 50% : $795.0M NL / NL Industries - : $3.80 : 33.8 : 13.2% : $5.99 : 43.7M : $185.2M : 83% : $153.7M === / Valhi's share ---- : -------------------------------------------> ------------> ----------------------->$ 949M VHI / Valhi, Inc.--------- : $3.47 : 3.44 : 2.31% : -0.05 : 340.M : $1180.M : PctVV: 124% > DATA VHI / Valhi ... All data : $3.47 NL / NL Industries ... all-data : Shows CYCLICALITY - peak every 6-7 years? KRO / Kronos WW ... all-data : CIX ... all-data : In 2012, Simmons sold off one of his previous companies, Timet... before he passed on Precision Castparts to Buy Titanium Metals for $2.9 Billion The Precision Castparts Corporation agreed on Friday to buy the Titanium Metals Corporation, an industrial parts maker whose majority owner is the Texas billionaire Harold Simmons, for about $2.9 billion in cash. Under the terms of the deal, Precision will pay $16.50 a share, nearly 43 percent above the closing price of Titanium Metals on Friday. The transaction will yield a big payday for Mr. Simmons, a veteran investor and prolific political donor who owns 45 percent of Titanium Metals, commonly known as Timet. (Note: Harold Simmons passed on in Dec. 2013, and Valhi is now control by his wife & daughter/s ?) Humble beginnings... and an appetite for acquisitions He would then go on to purchase a variety of banks across Texas, using one bank to finance the purchase of the other. This would give him the nickname “Dallas’ Most Evil Genius”, and he kept doing this. Once he got bored with banking, he looked to even larger things. Next he would attempt to take over Lockheed Martin, and he eventually acquired a 20% stake in the company. From there, the list of companies that Simmons controlled or owned is pretty absurd: Muse Air, Valhi Inc., Amalgamated Sugar, Contran Corporation, and much more. These companies would eventually contribute to his massive net worth, and he would eventually become a multi-billionaire. > https://worthly.com/richest/harold-simmons-rose-poverty-10-billion-tycoon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2019 VHI Ratios VHI to KRO VHI to NL VHI to XLB == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2019 CHE / ChemTrade - Q3- Pg.23 OUTLOOK : We remain confident... that our portfolio of businesses, business model and our strong balance sheet will allow us to comfortably sustain our distributions and increase our financial flexibility by reducing leverage > http://www.chemtradelogistics.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Q3-2018_CLIF_Report.pdf Particularly interested in caustic soda and hydrochloric acid markets in the north-west HYDROCHLORIC ACID + Regaining strength CAUSTIC SODA + Demand remains firm, pricing continues to have upward momentum (despite recent volatility) + Strong pricing forecast at least through 2023 > http://www.chemtradelogistics.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Chemtrade-Presentation-01_21_2019.pdf Financial : Presentations: http://www.chemtradelogistics.com/main/investors/presentations/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Chemtrade loses $131.51M from 2018 continuing ops 2-13-2019 Revenue from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $390.8-million, which was $4.1-million higher than the fourth quarter of 2017, largely due to higher revenues in the water solutions and specialty products (WSSC) segment. Net loss from continuing operations for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $97.2-million, compared with net earnings from continuing operations of $45.5-million in 2017, which included a tax recovery of $61.5-million compared with $10.7-million in 2018. During the fourth quarter of 2018, a goodwill impairment of $90.0-million related to the water products business was recorded. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) from continuing operations (1) for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $65.0-million compared with $61.5-million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The increase in adjusted EBITDA is mainly attributable to lower corporate costs, including lower incentive compensation accruals. Cash flows from operating activities were $79.9-million compared with $62.2-million during the fourth quarter of 2017. Adjusted cash flows from operating activities from continuing operations (1) were $48.7-million compared with $41.4-million generated during the fourth quarter of 2017. Distributable cash after maintenance capital expenditures from continuing operations (1) for the fourth quarter of 2018 was $17.3-million or 19 cents per unit compared with $6.7-million or seven cents per unit in 2017. . . . Chemtrade's president and chief executive officer, Mark Davis, said: "Our results for 2018 were disappointing and reflect the challenges we faced during the year. We took action on most of these issues, which will drive improvements in 2019 and future years. It's clear that improved execution by Chemtrade and our suppliers will improve results and remains our key focus." In the fourth quarter of 2018, the sulphur products and performance chemicals (SPPC) segment generated revenue of $129.1-million, essentially the same as the $129.0-million generated in 2017. However, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $17.3-million, which was $7.1-million lower than 2017. From a revenue perspective, higher prices for merchant sulphuric acid helped to offset the impact of lower volumes due to reduced availability of merchant sulphuric acid supply. The decrease in adjusted EBITDA was driven by several factors. From a merchant acid perspective, margins were flat despite the revenue increase due to lower volume, contractual sharing some of the price increases with suppliers, and higher raw material and freight costs. Adjusted EBITDA was negatively affected by unplanned downtime at a few customers' sites and an extended maintenance outage at a regen customer. Results were also negatively affected by an extended outage at one of Chemtrade's large regen plants, which resulted in higher costs to outsource the processing of a customer's product. The WSSC segment reported fourth quarter revenue of $102.4-million compared with $95.2-million in 2017. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.9-million compared with $15.0-million generated in 2017. The increased revenue was mainly due to higher volumes and selling prices of water products. However, despite increasing prices, the rising raw materials costs continue to squeeze margins. Margins are expected to improve as contracts are renewed at prices reflecting the higher raw material costs. During the quarter, two specialty chemicals customers (for potassium chloride (KCl) and phosphorus pentasulphide (P2S5)) significantly reduced their purchases. A return to historic buying levels is expected once the customers' inventory levels are normalized, although in the case of KCl this may take over one year. Therefore, additional sales opportunities are being actively pursued. Until recently, this business's facility was operating at full capacity. The electrochemicals (EC) segment reported revenue of $159.3-million and adjusted EBITDA of $46.2-million for the fourth quarter, both of which were close to levels achieved in 2017. Lower caustic prices were offset by higher hydrochloric (HCl) acid prices. However, a sudden downturn in demand for HCl late in the second half of the quarter led to lower production of chlor-alkali. Although there has been some volatility in caustic soda prices recently, the long-term forecast for caustic soda pricing remains favourable. / 2 / From Feb 8th: Globe says Chemtrade unit price seen recovering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 16, 2019 The "excess" in VHI has evaporated VHI-etc ... update : $2.37 vs. $4.22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2019 CHE.Un / Chemtrade - Q1 Results Chemtrade loses $29.3-million in Q1 2019-05-08 The first quarter results also include an increase of $40.0 million in the reserve for legal proceedings ("Litigation Reserve") established in 2018 to cover the costs of resolving the civil actions commenced against General Chemical entities EXCERPT Net loss for the first quarter of 2019 was $29.3 million, compared with net earnings of $6.9 million in 2018. The decrease was primarily due to the Litigation Reserve booked in the first quarter of 2019, and higher net finance costs due to a loss from the change in the fair value of convertible debentures, partially offset by higher income tax recoveries during the first quarter of 2019 compared to the first quarter of 2018. Excluding the Litigation Reserve, Adjusted EBITDA(1) for the first quarter of 2019 was $84.0 million compared with $72.0 million in the first quarter of 2018. The increase in Adjusted EBITDA is mainly attributable to the adoption of IFRS 16, which amounted to $14.6 million, offset by lower Adjusted EBITDA in the EC and Corporate segments. Cash flows used in operating activities were $53.5 million compared with cash flows from operating activities of $35.0 million during the first quarter of 2018. Adjusted cash flow from operating activities(1) was $11.5 million compared with $54.1 million generated during the first quarter of 2018. Distributable cash after maintenance capital expenditures(1) (excluding the Litigation Reserve) for the first quarter of 2019 was $42.5 million or $0.46 per unit compared with $44.2 million or $0.48 per unit in 2018. Chemtrade President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark Davis, said, "Our SPPC segment benefited from higher selling prices for sulphuric acid and improved efficiencies as we are starting to benefit from the restructuring of the business following a significant reduction in the product we receive from our largest by-product supplier. > https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aCHE-2756231&symbol=CHE&region=C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 13, 2019 NL & VHI ... update : $3.47 -0.11 / $2.23 +0.10 = V/N: R-xx% Ratio: $2.23 / $3.47 = V/N: R-64.3% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2020 CHARTS & Statistics Compared VHI -vs.NL- etc ... 4yr : 6mo: 10d / $1.75, $3.55, C$11.24 VHI = 0.171 KRO + 0.104 NL = 17.1% x$12.61 + 11.9% x$3.55 = $2.156 + $0.424 = $2.58NL . = 0.713 KRO + 0.22 CIX = 71.3% x$12.61 + 22.0% x$14.33 = $8.99 + $3.15 = $12.14 6mo: 10d / $1.75, $3.55, C$11.24 Ratio: VHI-toNL : $1.75 to $3.55= 49.3% Statistics Symbol Company------- : Last : PE-R : Yield : BkVal: P-BV : D/Eq: E.ps : MkCap: EntVal.: Ebitda: EV/Ebi. VHI / Valhi, Inc.—————- : $1.75 : 10.7 : 4.55% : -0.06 : - N/a-: 80-X : $0.16: $594.M: 2.59B : 205.M: r-12.7: NL / NL Industries———-: $3.55 : 7.77 : 0.00% : $6.18 : 57.% : 0.15 : $0.46: $173.M : 86.5M: 15.2M: r-5.68: KRO / Kronos Worldwide- : 12.61 : 14.4 : 5.61% : $7.32 : 172% : 55-X: $0.88: $1.46B: $1.54B: 194.M: r-7.93: Che.ut ChemTrade Logist.C$11.24: -n/a : 10.8% : $8.66 : 130% : 192x: (1.99): $1.04B: $2.57B: 286.M: r-9.01: OMN/ Omnova Solutions- : 10.12 : 56.5 : - n/a - : $1.31 : 773% : 557x: MTX / Minerals Tech.------- : 58.87 : 14.1 : 0.34% : 40.24 : 146% : 71-X : KWR / Quaker Chemical— : 169.04: 98.7 : 0.90% : 67.79 : 249% : 74-X: $1.71: $3.00B: $3.77B: 134.M: r-28.1: ==== : Symbol: Company---- Last : PE-R : Yield : BkVal : Sh-OS : Mkt.Cap: DebtOS:Vown : V-Value: perV.sh(340m) KRO / Kronos W'wide : 12.61 : 14.4 : 5.61% : $7.32: 116.M : $1460.M : $466M: 50% : $730.0M: $2.15 NL / NL Industries - : $3.55 : 33.8 : 0.00% : $6.18: 48.8M : $173.1M : $001M: 83% : $143.7M: $0.42 === / Valhi's share ---- : ------------------------------------------> ----------> -------------------------------------> $873.7M: $2.57 VHI / Valhi, Inc.--------- : $1.75 : 10.7 : 4.55% : -0.06 : 339.M : $597.1M : $805M: PctVV: 124% > KRO / Kronos W'wide : 12.61 : 14.4 : 5.61% : $7.32 : 116.M : $1460.M : $466M: 30% : $438.0M: $8.98 per NL sh CIX / Comp-X. : 14.33 : 11.6 : 1.67% : 12.85 : 12.4M : $178.3M : $000M: 87% : $155.1M: $3.17 = $12.15 === / NL share --------- : ------------------------------------------> ----------> -------------------------------------> $593.1M: $12.15 VHI / Valhi ... All data : $3.47 prev. Value NL-vs.: VHI, KRO, Che.ut.to ... update : fr.Jan.2015 : Jan.2016 : 4yr: Kronos Worldwide,Inc. (NYSE:KRO) (Kronos), incorporated in Delaware in1989, is a leading global producer and marketer of value-added titanium dioxide pigments, or TiO2, a base industrial product used in a wide range of applications. We, along with our distributors and agents, sell and provide technical services for our products to approximately 4,000 customers in 100 countries with the majority of sales in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific. We believe we have developed considerable expertise and efficiency in the manufacture, sale, shipment and service of our products in domestic and international markets.TiO2 is a white inorganic pigment used in a wide range of products for its exceptional durability and its ability to impart whiteness, brightness and opacity. TiO2 is a critical component of everyday applications, such as coatings, plastics and paper, as well as many specialty products such as inks, food and cosmetics. TiO2 is widely considered to be superior to alternative white pigments in large part due to its hiding ower (oropacity), which is the ability to cover or mask other materials effectively and efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2020 BOT some Valhi shares, @ just under $1.75 (0.08 div= 4.57%) VHI etc ... 1-yr / fr. 1.22.2019 : 10d / Ratio : VHI to CIX: 10.4% - at near 10%, this looks "too cheap" "at the bottom" of a range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 Kronos Worldwide: Dividend Remains A Strong Calling Card Summary / Individual Trader•Apr. 24, 2019 Dividend is well over 5%. Stock trading at just over 8 times earnings. Balance sheet remains strong. Kronos Converts TiO2 Into Cash Flow Vasily Zyryanov•Jan. 21, 2019•4 Comments Summary TiO2 (or titania) is a crucial and nearly irreplaceable pigment, needed primarily as the economy evolves and consumption expands. Titanium dioxide market is highly competitive and tough to enter. Existing players are protected from interventions while battling for their share among each other. Nevertheless, this business is highly cyclical. Industrial output decline and a global economic slowdown could lead to lower TiO2 demand. In Q3 2018, high feedstock prices led to a contraction of margins. Kronos is ahead of peers regarding FCF, liquidity, lower leverage; 6.7x P/E and 3.5x EV/EBITDA signalize undervaluation. Kronos Worldwide (KRO), a bellwether of titanium dioxide industry, had a tough year. Regarding one-year returns Kronos underperformed the U.S. chemicals industry, lost 51.7% of market capitalization and expectedly failed to beat S&P Kronos Worldwide: Buy This 102-Year-Old Undervalued, Under-Covered, 3% Yielder William Daniel•Mar. 31, 2018•2 Comments Summary Titanium dioxide (TiO2) prices have recovered after many years of pain in the industry. Expected cost increases for sulfate and chloride production methods have caused investors to flee TiO2 producers prematurely. Kronos is trading at a strong relative valuation. I consider the company a BUY. Founded in 1916, Kronos Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE:KRO) is one of the largest producers of titanium dioxide (TiO2) pigments in the world. The holding company Valhi (NYSE:VHI) reports an 80% Kronos Worldwide: Unleash The Titan Stephen Castellano•Nov. 25, 2017•27 Comments Kronos Worldwide: 4.75% Yield And European Exposure Make This Chemical Producer Interesting Jack Banser•May 20, 2015•9 Comments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 6 Reasons To Avoid Kronos Worldwide Freedom in Retirement•Nov. 18, 2019•16 Comments Summary KRO is a titanium dioxide producer and marketer. Prices of this chemical continue to decline. The company is boosting volume to counter the negative effect from lower prices. Revenue has barely increased for Q3 over the past seven years. The operational performance is weakening. The prospects for Kronos Worldwide (KRO) look bearish despite the significant 45% rally from the lows in August. There are several concerns that investors should weigh carefully before committing capital to KRO. Kronos Worldwide: A Look At Financials And Yield After H1 2019 Results Vasily Zyryanov•Sep. 2, 2019 Summary In 1H19, while feedstock prices went up, Kronos Worldwide faced issues as gross margin plummeted and took a toll on operating profit and cash flows. Higher tax rate hammered LTM EPS, which is around 2-year lows. The unfavorable working capital change led to negative half-year FCF. Nevertheless, as a producer of a nearly irreplaceable "quality-of-life" product with robust position on the market, Kronos has bright long-term prospects. It has been a while since I covered Kronos Worldwide (KRO), a prominent global producer and marketer of value-added titanium dioxide pigments, for the first time. Back then in January 2019, I attracted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 24, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2020 VALHI Group, Dividend Flows Stock: In flows - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - / Out flows - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - / Net inflow - - - - - per sh. VHI - : KROx 58Mx 0.72= $41.8M / VHI x 339Mx 0.08= $27.1M / +$14.7M /339= $0.04 VHI NL. - : KROx 35Mx 0.72= $25.2M / / - - - - - : CIX x 11Mx 0.27= $ 3.0M / NL. x 49Mx 0.00= $00.0M / +$28.2M / 49= $0.58 NL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2020 KRO may fall a little lower before it hits the uptrend KRO / Kronos Worldwide ... 10yr : / Last: $11.37 -0,03, 6.33% yield Meantime, VHI ($1.69 -0.01) and NL ($3.58 +0.10) seem to have found support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 29, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2020 CHE.ut.T / $9.47 -0.87, -8.41% CHEMTRADE LOGISTICS INCOME FUND ISSUES 2020 GUIDANCE Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund has issued 2020 guidance. 2020 guidance Chemtrade expects its 2020 adjusted EBITDA (net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization excluding net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization) (1) to range between $300-million and $350-million. Chemtrade's guidance is based on numerous assumptions. Certain key assumptions that underpin the guidance are as follows: None of the principal manufacturing facilities (as set out in Chemtrade's annual information form) incur significant unplanned downtime; Key assumptions in the electrochemicals (EC) segment are as follows: North American metric electrochemical unit (MECU) production volume of approximately 190,000 tonnes; A 2020 average caustic soda price based on the 2020 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index being $15 (U.S.) per tonne lower than the 2019 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index; North American production volume of sodium chlorate of approximately 420,000 tonnes; A foreign exchange rate of 77 U.S. cents per $1 (Canadian); Chemtrade also expects: Maintenance capital expenditures to range between $80-million and $90-million; Lease payments to range between $55-million and $60-million; Cash interest (excluding the impact of international financial reporting standard 16) to range between $70-million and $75-million; Cash taxes to range between $5-million and $10-million. Two thousand twenty's adjusted EBITDA range is below that of 2019 due to the following reasons: A higher number of maintenance turnarounds in 2020 relative to 2019, particularly the biennial turnaround at the North Vancouver chlor-alkali facility and a major turnaround at a key refinery customer that takes place once every five years; The assumption for spot northeast Asia caustic index is that the 2020 average will be below the 2019 average; this index value is a key variable in establishing Chemtrade's selling price for caustic soda; An assumption that there will not be a recovery in hydrochloric acid (HCl) demand from the higher netback fracking industry; the amount of realized netback revenue is typically higher from the fracking industry than from the industrial market; however, the industrial market is less cyclical; to increase stability, Chemtrade added more industrial customers partway through 2019; thus, the 2020 guidance includes a full year of the lower realized netback revenue as compared with 2019. Commenting on the guidance for 2020, Mark Davis, president and chief executive officer of Chemtrade, said: "Generally, our businesses are performing well, but 2020 will be affected by a biennial turnaround at our North Vancouver chlor-alkali plant and by a once-every-five-year turnaround by a key refinery customer. Also, while we are assuming near-term caustic soda weakness, we continue to believe that the long-term fundamentals for caustic soda, particularly in NE Asia, remain favourable." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 EATING some KRO... Actually, I bought Calls on Kronos yesterday (Friday) Bought March $10C at $1.10 = Breakeven is $11.10 / Div. $0.72: for Yield: 6.48%. BkVal: $ KRO / Kronos W'wide ... from Jan.2019: Jan. 2016: 10d / Last: $10.84 - 0.44, PER: 13.35, Yield: 6.64% (Div. $0.72) : fr. Jan. 2016 / Last: $10.84 - May pair-trade around my positions in VHI and KRO. Here's the ratio: RATIO: VHI-to KRO : 15.3% https://imgur.com/XtYVome == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 1, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2020 PAIRS-trading The Valhi-KROnos Group VHI-etc ... fr. Jan.2019 : Jan.2016 / Last: VHI: $1.66. NL: $3.36 (202%). KRO-nos: $10.84 (r-6.53) : Jan.2016 / Ratio Suggests... Possible set-up for explosive rally in VHI, back from 202% 1o 100% maybe? Date----- : VHI-- : NL-- : $Gap : Ratio-- / KROnos ratio%/ Dv.80 : Dv.75: gap-: R.Yields: BookVal. : ($0.06): $ 6.18: NMF-: NMF % / $ 7.38 =====. / 72cts.: 08cts. 9.00x : R-div. : Earns/sh.: $ 0.18: $ 0.46: $0.28: r256. % / $ 0.88 =====. /Dividends: $0.08 : $0.00 : $0.08: NMF.% / $0.72 : r-9.00/ 01/31/20 : $ 1.66: $ 3.36: $1.70: r202.4%/ $10.84: r-6.53/ 6.64% 4.82% 1.82%: r1.378 12/31/19 : $ 1.87: $ 3.91: $2.04: r209.1%/ $13.40: r-7.17 / 5.37% 4.28%: 1.09%: r1.254 09/30/19 : $ 1.90: $ 3.76: $1.86: r197.9%/ $12.37: r-6.51 / 5.82% 4.21%: 1.61%: r1.382 06/28/19 : $ 2.97: $ 3.65: $0.68: r122.9%/ $15.32: r-5.16 / 4.70% 2.69%: 2.10%: r1.747 12/31/18 : $ 1.93: $ 3.51: $1.58: r181.9%/ $11.52: r-5.96 / 6.25% 4.15%: 2.10%: r1.506 12/29/17 : $ 6.17: $14.25 $8.08: r230.9%/ $25.77: r-4.18 / 2.79% 1.30%: 1.49%: r2.146 12/30/16 : $ 3.46: $ 8.15: $4.69: r235.5%/ $11.94: r-3.45 / 6.03% 12/31/15 : $ 1.34: $ 3.04: $1.70: r226.9%/ $ 5.64: r-4.21 / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 KRO Bounced (+3.4%) at last, helping NL (+5.4%) KRO-etc: fr. Dec.2018 / Last:$11.21 +$0.37, +3.41%, vol. 193.9k NL ... 12mo./ Last: $3.54 +$0.18, +5.36% vol.15.0k / O:3.36, H:3.75, L:3.33 / VHI was UNCH.: 1.66, vol. 67.5k If ChemTrade Logistics is a bellwether - It is still sliding CHE.ut.TO / ChemTrade ... fr.Jun.2017: Oct.2018 / Last: C$9.10 -0.28, -2.99% vol. 678.7k /Yr.range: C$8.01-12.00 : Oct.2018 / Last: C$9.10 Ratio: CHE.ut-to vs-KRO: 81.2% (55% > 105% 3 yr. Range) === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 UPDATED Stats, after recent price falls > Does CHE's Ebitda target a little over $7.00? CHE.ut ... All-data: w/KRO / Last: C$9.10 : w/KRO / Ratio: CHE.ut-to vs-KRO: 81.2% (55% > 105% 3 yr. Range) Symbol Company------- : Last : PE-R : Yield : BkVal: P-BV : D/Eq: E.ps : MkCap: EntVal.: Ebitda: EV/Ebi. Che.ut ChemTrade Logist.: C$9.10: -n/a : 12.5% : $8.66 : 105% : 192x: (1.99): $843M: $2.40B: 286.M: r-8.41: KRO / Kronos Worldwide- : 11.21 : 12.8 : 6.55% : $7.32 : 153% : 55-X: $0.88: $1.30B: $1.33B: 194.M: r-6.88: NL / NL Industries———-: $3.54 : 7.75 : 0.00% : $6.18 : 57.% : 0.15 : $0.46: $171.M: $77.3M:15.2M: r-5.07: VHI / Valhi, Inc.—————- : $1.66 : 10.1 : 4.76% : -0.06 : - N/a-: 80-X : $0.16: $563.M: $1.90B : 205.M: r-9.29: Average EV/EBI. (4 cos)= r-7.41, (3 cos, ex.VHI): r-6.79. Yield: (4cos): 5.95% (3 cos, ex.NL): 7.94%. CHE fell from C$11.40 to $9.10 (-xx% after THIS announcement... adj. Ebitda to be "below"(??) last year's ($286M reported, above) $300M x 7.41= EntVal: $2.22B Est. - (Net Debt: $1.56B) = MktCap: $660M / 93M shs = C$7.10 per share ISSUES seem very specific to CHE ... ie their "turnaround timing" Chemtrade expects its 2020 adjusted EBITDA (net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization excluding net earnings before any deduction for net finance costs, taxes, depreciation and amortization) (1) to range between $300-million and $350-million. Chemtrade's guidance is based on numerous assumptions. Certain key assumptions that underpin the guidance are as follows: None of the principal manufacturing facilities (as set out in Chemtrade's annual information form) incur significant unplanned downtime; Key assumptions in the electrochemicals (EC) segment are as follows: North American metric electrochemical unit (MECU) production volume of approximately 190,000 tonnes; A 2020 average caustic soda price based on the 2020 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index being $15 (U.S.) per tonne lower than the 2019 average IHS NE Asia caustic price index; North American production volume of sodium chlorate of approximately 420,000 tonnes; A foreign exchange rate of 77 U.S. cents per $1 (Canadian); Chemtrade also expects: Maintenance capital expenditures to range between $80-million and $90-million; Lease payments to range between $55-million and $60-million; Cash interest (excluding the impact of international financial reporting standard 16) to range between $70-million and $75-million; Cash taxes to range between $5-million and $10-million. Two thousand twenty's adjusted EBITDA range is below that of 2019 due to the following reasons: Commenting on the guidance for 2020, Mark Davis, president and chief executive officer of Chemtrade, said: "Generally, our businesses are performing well, but 2020 will be affected by a biennial turnaround at our North Vancouver chlor-alkali plant and by a once-every-five-year turnaround by a key refinery customer. Also, while we are assuming near-term caustic soda weakness, we continue to believe that the long-term fundamentals for caustic soda, particularly in NE Asia, remain favourable." === Date ET Symbol Price Type Headline 2020-01-31 00:05 C:CHE 9.60 News Release Chemtrade revises time of 2019 conference call 2020-01-30 10:08 C:CHE 9.61 News Release Chemtrade Logistics to release 2019 results Feb. 20 2020-01-27 18:26 C:CHE 10.85 News Release Chemtrade estimates 2020 adjusted EBITDA of $300M === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 6, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2020 JUMP in VHI (+6%)... as KRO continues its recent bounceback /or Climb KRO vs- VHI, NL... 6mo: fr.Aug.2019: 3mo: 10d / Last: $11.53 Sym.: Last$ : $chg. : % chg. / Yr.Low: %Off L./ $Div. : Yield: PE-R: EP.sh: KRO : $11.53 +0.33, + 2.95%/ $9.65 : +19.5%/ $0.72: 6.24%: 13.1 : $0.88: VHI : $ 1.75 +0.09, + 5.42% / $1.65 : +6.06%/ $0.08: 4.57%: 10.9: $0.16: NL - : $ 3.52 + 0.14, + 4.14% / $3.04 : +15.8%/ $0.00: 0.00%: 7.65: $0.46: VtoN: 49.7% Che: C$8.83 - 0.09, - 1.01% / $ 8.01 : +10.2%/ $1.20: 13.59%: -n/a : (1.99) CtoK: 76.6% 6mo: fr.Aug.2019: 3mo: 10d / Last: $11.53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 CHE.ut ... YTD / Last: $4.86 / yrL: xx, yrL: yy xx ChemTrade Logistics. : O/S Prin.: Conver.: Price : Last Price : Yield : YTM > / CHE.un: 92.6M units. : $ 450M : - N/A - : $4.86 : $4.85 - 4.86 : 12.3%: BV $7.66 B / 5.25% : 30 Jun., 2021: $ 14.5M*: $28.00: 100.35 : 100.2-100.5 : 5.23%: C / 5.00% : 31 Aug., 2023: $143.8M: $24.85: $82.25: 82.00-82.50 : 6.08%: D / 4.75% : 31 May, 2024: $201.1M: $26.70: $75.00: 73.00-77.00 : 6.33%: E / 6.50% : 31 Oct., 2026: $100.0M: $15.80: $73.00: 72.00-73.90 : 8.90%: F / 8.50% : 30 Sep. 2025: $ 86.3M: $ 7.35: $93.40: 93.00-93.79 : 9.10%: ======== : ====== Total: $545.5M: > Update : https://www.stockwatch.com/Quote/Detail?C:CHE.UT *redeemed $100M, 9-29, and $12.5M on Oct 5th, leaving just $14.5M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 14, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2020 KRO -etc ... update: KRO: $13.71, NL: $0.00, VHI: $0.00 VHI to KRO x === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 VHI -etc: fr.Nov'19: Jan'18: '19: '20: 10d / VHI: 17.09 / KRO: 15.36 = Ratio: 111.2%, NL: 4.63 (30.1%) Chart '2020: 10d / VHI: 17.09 / KRO: 15.36 = Ratio: 111.2%, NL: 4.63 (30.1%) VHI: 17.09 / KRO: 15.36 = Ratio: 111.2% Ratio: 3.7x VHI: 17.09 / NL: 4.63 (30.1%) xxhttps://imgur.com/Vw2tuJD === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2021 Globe says Hansen keen on Chemtrade Logistics Income 2021-01-18 08:57 ET - In the News The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday, Jan. 15, edition that Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen boosted Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund ($6.99) to "outperform" from "market perform" on Friday. The Globe's David Leeder writes that Mr. Hansen still targets the shares at $9. Analysts on average target the shares at $7.03. Mr. Hansen says in a note: "We foresee a number of incremental tailwinds emerging in 2021 that bode well for Chemtrade's earnings profile, including: 1) an improving North American economy; 2) rising sulphuric acid prices; 3) a modest lift/recovery in NE Asian caustic prices; 4) improving HCL demand/prices in tandem with higher oil prices and E&P activity; and 5) improved operating performance. Collectively, we expect these shifting dynamics to underpin a healthy EBITDA recovery in 2021. ... Chemtrade still trades at a discounted valuation vs. its historical average, a discount that we expect will gradually erode. ... While the company continues to carry an above-average leverage profile, it has no near-term maturities and plenty of room on its existing covenants to provide time for an earnings recovery. Coupled with the total return opportunity described, we are upgrading." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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