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"Virtue Investing" - emotional risk (FB puts, etc.)

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"Virtue Investing" - carries emotional Risk

(Often, when you FEEL GOOD about an investment when you make it, it does not make money)

HERE is an example - I hope to beat the built-in curse... of LIKING A TRADE TOO MUCH, when I out it on.

Genuine TRUE Virtue? (Note 666 close)

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I am now short FB!.

Yesterday, I joined the side of the angels. I bought FB puts

FB / Fakebook - FascistBook .... All-Data : Jul.2017 / 10d : Last $166.69 ... LIVE

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: Jul.2017 :

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: 10d :

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BOT: FB: apr170P : @ $8.45 (with FB over $170) - closed at $9.67

In this case...

My own "good feelings" about being short, may be at war against those who FELT GOOD when they bought FB after reading the favorable earnings report.

But I need to stay alert to how emotions may drive my own investment and trading decisions - Hence this thread.

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Facebook worth $45 billion more after earnings set it up to be potential ‘comeback story of 2019’ MarketWatch

Facebook Inc. shares had their best performance in three years on Thursday, after the company’s latest quarterly numbers restored confidence in the beleaguered social-media giant.

“The most draconian fears ought to begin to subside,” wrote Evercore ISI analyst Anthony DiClemente, who asked whether Facebook could emerge as tech’s “comeback story of 2019.”

Facebook FB, +10.82%  shares increased 10.8% Thursday to close at $166.69, Facebook’s biggest single-day increase since a 15.5% gain following fourth-quarter earnings on Jan. 28, 2016. That move added about $46.8 billion to Facebook’s market capitalization, which has been damaged by a series of scandals but stood at $479 billion at the end of Thursday’s session, according to FactSet.

MW-HD098_facebo_20190131153602_NS.gif?uu
 

Fueling excitement are the company’s better-than-feared financial disclosures released Wednesday afternoon about its core service. Daily active users climbed to 1.52 billion, up 9% from a year earlier, and Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner said that engagement around “Facebook Blue,” the traditional site, is consistent with the user trends. That means “stability in the developed markets” and growth in developing markets, he added.

In the U.S. and Canada, Facebook’s daily-active-user count inched up to 282 million from 277 million a year earlier, while monthly active users for the region increased to 242 million from 239 million.

An erosion in core Facebook usage was “not to be observed in user metrics,” wrote Evercore’s DiClemente, helping put to bed some concerns that users were fleeing the main Facebook site in favor of platforms like Instagram, which aren’t monetized as well yet. He rates the stock at outperform with a $195 price target.

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–– ADVERTISEMENT ––
 
 

Opinion: Facebook had a bad year? Not judging by its bottom line

 

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ZUCK must be feeling good after the "blowout earnings report"

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRxLFh45228aJViYa8Jqik

And the move to chop Iran-related accounts (to help Israel?)

I wonder how many of these accounts were simply conservative, or critics of Israel, & had little to do with Iran

Facebook removes nearly 800 fake pages and accounts traced to Iran

CNBC-5 hours ago
Facebook on Thursday announced it removed 783 pages, groups and accounts with ties to Iran as part of the company's continued effort to rid ...
 
 
 

Facebook said Thursday it took down hundreds of “inauthentic” accounts from Iran that were part of a vast manipulation campaign operating in more than 20 countries, including Israel.

The world’s biggest social network said it removed 783 pages, groups and accounts “for engaging in coordinated inauthentic behavior tied to Iran.”

An example of content on a Facebook page tied to an Iranian manipulation campaign. (Facebook)

Facebook said Thursday it took down hundreds of “inauthentic” accounts from Iran that were part of a vast manipulation campaign operating in more than 20 countries, including Israel.

The world’s biggest social network said it removed 783 pages, groups and accounts “for engaging in coordinated inauthentic behavior tied to Iran. ”The pages were part of a campaign to promote Iranian interests in various countries by creating fake identities of residents of those nations, according to a statement by Nathaniel Gleicher, head of cybersecurity policy at Facebook.

“We are constantly working to detect and stop this type of activity because we don’t want our services to be used to manipulate people,” Gleicher said.

LOL !

“We’re taking down these pages, groups and accounts based on their behavior, not the content they post. In this case, the people behind this activity coordinated with one another and used fake accounts to misrepresent themselves, and that was the basis for our action.”

The operators “typically represented themselves as locals, often using fake accounts, and posted news stories on current events,” including “commentary that repurposed Iranian state media’s reporting on topics like Israel-Palestine relations and the conflicts in Syria and Yemen,” Gleicher said.

. . . Meanwhile, Likud party claimed that Iran was trying to topple Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhau.

“It is unsurprising that Iran is trying to topple Prime Minister Netanyahu, who blocked its nuclear program, thwarted its efforts at military entrenchment in Syria, pulverized its economy and sent the Mossad to steal from under its nose the secret nuclear archives,” according to Likud.

Facebook first began looking into these kinds of activities after the revelations of Russian influence campaigns during the 2016 US election, which were aimed at sowing discord.

(This last point may show the REAL motivation in the timing of FB's move : Part of a SAVE BIBI effort. 

And FB says it does not want people manipulating others! Hahaha)

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Outrage over Facebook's use of teens to spy on rivals as Sandberg ...
In-Depth-Fox News-5 hours ago

Apple leaves Facebook offices in disarray after revoking app ...

The Guardian-12 hours ago
The move came on Wednesday, the day after it was revealed that Facebook had allegedly exploited a loophole in Apple's approval system to ...

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How Quitting Facebook Could Change Your Life

Fortune-7 hours ago
Quitting Facebook can affect your life, according to a new study. In some ways, the report, The Welfare Effects of Social Media, recalls life ...
 

Participants stopped using Facebook, except for the social media’s Messenger app.

Results of the one-month experiment showed that people scored lower on tests of their political knowledge, while political polarization dropped between 5% and 10% for some users.

“This is not a trivial finding,” David Lazer, a professor at Northeastern University, who teaches political science and computer and information science told the New York Times. “It could have gone either way. You could imagine that the other chatter and information on Facebook was crowding out news consumption.”

Participants also reported having an extra hour each day — and sometimes more for heavier Facebook users — which they spent offline with loved ones, or watching TV.

The study also found that deactivating Facebook had a positive, yet minor impact on mood. While the study did provide evidence to support the addictive nature of social media, it remained unclear whether heavy Facebook use worsened a person’s mental wellbeing, or if people with mental health disorders were heavier users.

(I would love to see how they tested "political knowledge" - FB brainwashing??)
 
Facebook turns 15
Opinion-The Economist-15 hours ago

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FB SHORTS got ((Squeezed)) yesterday

sedZGf0.png

How Facebook, GE and Apple turned their struggles into stock gains ...

CNBC-2 hours ago
Facebook, General Electric and Apple have all proved how powerful low expectations can be, CNBC's Jim Cramer said Thursday after ...
 

 

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FB still easing, and my Put rose a little in value

Facebook ... FB-10d : $165.71 /  FB-Apr.$170p: $9.82 2d : 5d / Apr.$165p: $7.40 /

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FB-Apr.$170p: $9.80

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2d : 5d / When acquired: Bought $170p, at $8.45 when FB was over $170. HOD was $171.80

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Option Volatility Calculation :

April’19  : Bid — - Offer : Mid- : %Last : P.A.x2 : estVol : -VIX-, chg. : %VIX :
170.00P : $9.80 - $9.85 : $9.82: 5.92% :
165.71P :  : ATM > est> : $7.74 : 4.67% : 9.35% : 23.4%: 16.14%-0.43: 145%
165.00P : $7.35 - $7.45 : $7.40 : 4.46% :

When the Put was acquired, assuming price was $170...

170.00P :  : ATM > est> : $8.45 : 4.97% : 9.96% : 24.9%: 16.57%------>: 150%

 

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Facebook Stock Surges On Strong Quarterly Earnings Report

Facebook stock surged Thursday following an earnings report that beat estimates and showed stable user trends, as several analysts raised their price target.

After the market close Wednesday, Facebook (FB) reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $2.38 per share and revenue of $16.9 billion. Wall Street analysts expected $2.19 per share on revenue of $16.4 billion.

The company got a slew of price target hikes as a result. The high-end range of the price-target raise was from Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Brian White. He raised the price target to 225 from 190.

"After a scandalous 2018, Facebook's strong fourth-quarter results and constructive view on 2019 relative to the blizzard of negative news headlines tells us that the worst is likely over for the company," White wrote in a note to clients. "That said, we expect the negative news flow to continue in 2019, combined with monetary fines, the threat of increased regulation and the potential for other scandals to emerge within the tech world."

. . . Facebook Engagement Stable

"Engagement appears stable, as the daily and monthly active user ratio held steady." Baird analyst Colin Sebastian wrote in a note to clients.

Facebook now estimates 2.7 billion people use its flagship network or its Instagram, WhatsApp or Messenger offerings each month. And more than 2 billion people use at least one of the four each day.

Raymond James analyst Aaron Kessler raised his price target on Facebook stock to 200, from 190. He maintained a rating of outperform.

> https://www.investors.com/news/technology/facebook-stock-earnings/

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NEGATIVE NEWS flow to continue...

Is New York Times coverage of Facebook really getting more negative ...

Jan 21, 2019 -

Facebook executives reportedly think that the New York Times’ coverage of their company has turned unfairly negative.

Part of that argument is correct.

Sentiment in the Times’ coverage of Facebook has been, on average, almost exclusively negative since the 2016 elections, according to new data analyzed by researcher Joe Hovde, a full-time data analyst at a retail tech company.

That’s a turnaround from the paper’s Facebook coverage in the four years leading up to Donald Trump’s election, and it has continued into this year.

For the analysis, Hovde included stories with “Facebook” in the article headline and summary text, and then scored the surrounding words on a scale of -5 (very negative words like curses unlikely to show up in the Times) to +5 (extremely positive, using words like “superb” or “breathtaking”)

Many believe Facebook is having a negative impact on society around ...

Apr 12, 2018 -

Mark Zuckerberg’s former personal pollster, Tavis McGinn, thinks Facebook is having a negative impact on society. Based on his most recent survey, it seems much of the world agrees.

McGinn, who used to track the public’s perception of CEO Zuckerberg and COO Sheryl Sandberg while working for Facebook, left Facebook after just six months and launched his own polling company, Honest Data. The 18-person company conducts market research for large tech firms. It hasn’t accepted outside funding.

A recent survey McGinn conducted found Facebook is not well regarded in many parts of the world.

Australia, Canada and the U.K. had the highest share of respondents — about 33 percent — who say that Facebook is having a “negative impact on society,” according to McGinn’s new survey.

 

Criticism of Facebook - Wikipedia

Criticism of Facebook relates to how Facebook's market dominance has led to international .... The first of the new features, News Feed, appears on every Facebook member's home page, .... with Facebook (14%), negative aspects regarding Facebook friends (13%), and the feeling of getting addicted to Facebook (6%).

The use of Facebook can have psychological effects, including feelings of jealousy[7][8] and stress,[9][10] a lack of attention,[11] and social media addiction, in some cases comparable to drug addiction.[12][13]

Facebook's company tactics have also received prominent coverage, including electricity usage,[14] tax avoidance,[15] real-name user requirement policies,[16]censorship,[17][18] and its involvement in the United States PRISM surveillance program.[19] Facebook has come under scrutiny for 'ignoring' or shirking its responsibility for the content posted on its platform, including copyright and intellectual property infringement,[20]hate speech,[21][22] incitement of rape[23] and terrorism,[24][25]fake news,[26][27][28]Facebook murder, crimes and violent incidents live-streamed through its Facebook Live functionality.[29][30][31]

Facebook has been banned by several governments, including Syria,[32] China,[33] and Iran.[34]

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FB stuck (so far) at resistance level

FB / Facebook ... update / Last: $170.49 -$0.67, -0.39% / day range: 169.27-172.47

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Year’s range: 123.02-218.62 : Diff.: $95.60 / 50% level = $170.82, say $171 = where it is now!

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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Pre-Market Trading:  $168.70 - 1.79 - 1.05%

2019 Will Be a Perilous Year for Facebook

Feb 06 / GuruFocus News -

A little-noticed but profoundly significant note was added to Facebook Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FB) latest earnings release. In the forward-looking statements section of the fourth-quarter earnings release that outlines potential risk factors, the company added: “risks associated with government actions that could restrict access to our products or impair our ability to sell advertising in certain countries.”

Even though many analysts may dismiss or altogether ignore the additional language, the seemingly innocuous additional risk factors is an acknowledgement of the perils the company is going to face in 2019.

The company has had a series of clashes with regulators in the past. As I noted previously, the problem for Facebook is that it has been duplicitous and demonstrated bad faith for years concerning its attempt to address data privacy abuses; its actions have belied its pious assertions of concern with potential abuse of its users' private data.

. . .The most menacing peril facing the company comes from Europe. Legislators charged with implementing the General Data Privacy Regulation seem to be more savvy about the company’s business practices and are drafting what will prove to be cumbersome and costly provisions accordingly.

Subsequent to the enactment of the GDPR last spring, European regulators are now becoming more emboldened and adversarial in their regulatory relationship with the tech giants, most notably Facebook and Alphabet's (GOOG)(GOOGL) Google. It is inevitable that U.S. legislators are going to follow suit. Many countries are drafting regulations in a strict manner consistent with the intent of the privacy law.

. . .Here is the basis for another analyst’s buy rating on the company:

“FB’s status as leader in Social is unchanged and we see continued upside for FB shares as it digests the social hangover,” the analyst wrote last Monday. “FB remains a tier 1 platform for advertising spend with Instagram showing positive drivers of growth.”

No mention of how regulatory action, however slight, will impact the stock or should at least be acknowledged in any valuation models. Nary a word about whether projected multiples are rational in what will be a drastically different operating environment.

. . . Will the company continue to enjoy 40%-plus operating margins if European regulations become more onerous? If an analyst believes impacts on margins will be negligible, what is the factual basis for that assertion?

 
/ 2 /

Facebook data: Germany's anti-trust office has ruled that Facebook (FB) is abusing its dominant position in social media by combining data from other sources such as Instagram, WhatsApp and third party websites to build a unique profile of each user.

In future, Facebook will have to seek German users' explicit consent to collect and combine such data. "Facebook is to develop proposals for solutions to this effect," the Bundeskartellamt said in a statement.
Facebook said it disagreed with the conclusions of the investigation and intended to appeal.
    "Using information across services helps to make them better and protect people's safety," the company said in a statement.

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    922181_congress-social-50006-twitter-ceo

    Will Twitter be the first Social media company to "dustify" ?

    TWTR ... update : 30.80 -3.36, -9.84%

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    Twitter Shares Drop as Company Reveals Disappointing User Numbers

    Twitter shares dropped by as much as 10 percent Thursday as the company revealed its number of daily active users for the first time, disappointing investors. Only 39 percent of Twitter use the platform every day.

    Reuters reports that following the recent release of Twitter’s daily active users for the first time, the company’s stock price has taken a hit. Twitter has notoriously never released their daily active user metrics in the past, instead revealing the percentage increase or decrease of its monthly active users.

    But due to a recent decline in monthly active users — partly due to the social media firm’s crackdown on fake accounts — Twitter chose to reveal its daily active users and will no longer be publishing monthly active user figures.

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    So far, So good... FB: $163.25 -0.81

    "Inflated" FB has not kept pace with the rising SPY

    In fact, it fell !  ... as SPY rose

    Ratio: FB -to-SPY ... could fall soon to 58%

    Nb6G205.png

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    Zuckerberg Bought me my MacBook Laptop. Thanks Mark!

    Well, not exactly. But the profits from FB puts covered the cost of the laptop.

    (& I feel good about winning when FB shares drop.)

    I am OUT > I sold the FB puts at $10.50, for a profit of over 23% - so not a bad trade

    In fact, with FB down $7 from where I bought the puts, a profit of just $2 is disappointing.

    Still, I made money on these puts while the overall market was rising.

    I immediately SWAPPED into TZA-Calls, buying Mar.$9 Calls at $1.10, so my breakeven on TZA is $10.10.

    TZA / 3X Bear on Russell-2000/ IWM ... TZA-v-FB : Tza-10d : $9.97 > my b/even is $10.10 or 1.3% higher

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    That is equivalent to being SHORT: at about IWM-$153.50 x 0.996= $152.90

    IWM - etf for Russell-2000 ... vs.FB : alone : spy / Last: $153.50

    yTwZ2uw.gif

    It will be interesting to see if the short on IWM will outperform a FB short from here/

    (in edit) Here's the FB chart a little after the opening on Friday ... 10d chart / Last: $163.00 -0.59% on the day

    AGU4rqz.gif

    ==

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    RUMORS... Big Fine for Fakebook?

    Mark-Zuckerberg-frowning-200x150.png

    Facebook, FTC Negotiating Massive Fine?

    Suggestion: Use FB billions to build the Wall, adding it to El Chapo's billions

     

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