Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Jan. 2019 Trading - v.120

Recommended Posts

TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

=====

SILVER up to resistance with opening Gap

SLV / Silver ... update : 10d : Last: $14.68

7gcQjtR.gif

SIL / Silver shares ... update : 10d : Last: $25.50

rBQIgfj.png

==

Edited by drbubb

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gran Columbia Gold shows textbook breakout... with rising volume

(here's hoping, it will be followed by other miners)

GCM vs- MUX, CCO ... update : 3.18 +0.23: +7.80%, $2.59 UNCH, $15.23 -1.49%

zof52gT.gif

GCM ... longer term : C$3.18 +0.23: +7.80%, vol.: 287,194 / YrH: C$3.45

f1bsdzs.gif

Meantime, NGD: 0.8991 +0.0738 +8.94% / Open: 0.8499 / High: 0.90 / Low: 0.8301    Vol.: 4,049,029

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTI Crude is bouncing off support near $43

chW4JdL.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The China Syndrome : A  potential Double Whammy (if Chinese capital is withdrawn from global markets)

The Risk of Crowding Out is real

mcgcapital says:

From @lisaabramowicz:

Just the interest payments on China’s non-financial debt totalled about $3 trillion last year, equal to roughly 22% of the nation’s GDP, according to @vshih2. At this point, China is borrowing more money just to cover the interest payments on its existing debt.

And this is worth a read – https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/07/a-chinese-recession-is-inevitable-dont-think-it-wont-affect-you

Selected paragraphs below:

“Former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke famously characterised this much-studied phenomenon as a key component of the “global savings glut”. Thus, instead of leading to lower global real interest rates, a Chinese slowdown that spreads across Asia could paradoxically lead to higher interest rates elsewhere – especially if a second Asian financial crisis leads to a sharp draw-down of central bank reserves. Thus, for global capital markets, a Chinese recession could easily prove to be a double whammy.”

“When the advanced countries had their financial crisis a decade ago, emerging markets recovered relatively quickly, thanks to low debt levels and strong commodity prices. Today, however, debt levels have risen significantly, and a sharp rise in global real interest rates would almost certainly extend today’s brewing crises beyond the handful of countries (including Argentina and Turkey) that have already been hit.”

“Nor is the US immune. For the moment, the US can finance its trillion-dollar deficits at relatively low cost. But the relatively short-term duration of its borrowing – under four years if one integrates the Treasury and Federal Reserve balance sheets – means that a rise in interest rates would soon cause debt service to crowd out needed expenditures in other areas.”

> Tony  C's Blog:  https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2019/01/02/wednesday-update-650/#comments

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CHINA & COPPER - EXCERPT from an interview with Frank Holmes

TGR: What is your crystal ball telling you? Do you think the Trump Administration will be able to negotiate trade settlements with China?

FH: I think if anyone's going to be able to do it, it's definitely going to be Mr. Tough Guy, who likes that role. I don't like his style, but he's the master of game theory. I was out with a young PhD who went to Stanford applying game theory to macroeconomic models, and she was telling me that most of her friends couldn't stand that she said Trump was going to win. In her reasoning, she says it's not about liking him; rather, he's a master of applying game theory. And when you look at what he's done and what he continues to do, then it looks like the odds could favor Trump is going to win because China needs us, we don't need it. It needs our $13 trillion economy.

TGR: Along the same lines, do you think that interest rates are about to peak or have peaked? The Federal Reserve chair has modulated his talk in the last month or so.

FH: I think the Fed is going to look at Christmas sales and tally the numbers. But what's going to happen in the first quarter of next year is all the tax benefits for the lower corporate tax break are going to be gone for the growth in our corporate earnings. That's going to slow down the year-over-year growth rate. A lot of quant funds use this momentum, looking at not only revenue last quarter over forward quarters, but cash flow last quarter over forward quarters and earnings last quarter over forward quarters. This year it's been ripping. It's been very, very healthy and strong for the public companies. But that year-over-year change is going to start having a new base starting next year.

TGR: So in a sense it's uncharted waters.

FH: Yes. I think one has to make sure that they're balanced in their equation of debt to equity. But there's no doubt the Fed seems to be on a suicide mission with raising rates.

I was in D.C. recently, and I had the wonderful experience of going to the Chinese embassy and hearing about free trade and trade and all the related issues. And then I went over to Capitol Hill and the Senate and listened to debates and discussions. I think the Chinese underestimated how many Americans distrust them. I guess they like buying cheap products at Walmart. But it's not just a Trump versus them. It's both Democrats and Republicans. It's one thing where the New York Times agrees with Trump and the Washington Post. I think that was the underestimation.

TGR: Let's turn to commodities. What commodities do you think will do better than others in 2019?

FH: Copper is one of the commodities that took it on the chin faster with the PMI turning negative, and it's probably oversold. And there's not a big growth of supply. If you believe in the electrification of the world, the growth in data centers, the growth in the Amazons and the Googles of the world, then you know they all need these data centers, and they all need copper wiring. And then you come along with Tesla and other electric cars, and they all use five, six times the amount of copper than a gasoline-powered car. I don't believe that trend is going to leave us...

. . .

TGR: What's your outlook on precious metals?

FH: I remain very bullish on gold. I remain bullish because there is peak gold. There was peak oil. In 2005 that was a great concern until the frackers came along. There are no frackers for the gold space, though. ....But the process for bringing a mine on-stream and getting the necessary permitting is still a very, very long cycle. I think that gold supply is going to continue to dwindle. Reserves are going to peak and they're going to slide.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2018/12/28/frank-holmes-looking-back-looking-ahead#je2pdoWSqGgCd6hh.99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

COPPER may put in an important Low right here near $2.55

9agrpME.png

FCX

AnQ4M0H.png

Copper & FCX : chart :

yGrhsIi.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I expected, the high-beta Drillers are moving up faster than OIH

OIH etc- RDC, MDR, ESV ... update

22DEjpj.gif

This move has benefited my OIL SECTOR PORTFOLIO, which is up $7,548 (ignoring TV)

Sym. / Price :  x-Qty: $-Value: Strike : Pmt.: $Surplus -Cost-: Profit :
RDC  : $ 9.50 : x2500= 23,750: $6.C : $15.0K: $ 8,750: $7,275: $1,475
MDR : $ 7.66 : x2500= 19,150: $5.C : $12.5K: $ 6,650: $6,400: $0,250
ESV  : $ 4.18 : x5000= 20,900: $2.C : $10.0K: 10,900: $8,400: $2,500
Total: =========== > 63,800: ==== : $37.5K: 26,300 : 22,075 $4,225
OIH  : $15.19: x3700= 56,203: 20.C: $74.0K: (17,797) 21,120 $3,323 : $7,548
$4,225/3700: $1.14: $14.05
$3,323/3700: $0.90: $14.29

I value this Portfolio against a Notional 3,700 shares of OIH at b/e $14.29 = $52,873

So +$7,548 is like a 14.3% gain in just a few days - on a portfolio "funded" by excess Buying Power
======

OIH-etc / Daily ... update:

qHNKcxQ.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will Gold-in-US$ begin to close the Gap?

MNT.t is Gold in CAD ...

GLD -vs.MNT : update : vsHK101/PSEI :

Lys2rAC.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thursday's Opening GAP UP troubled me.

And I did some modest selling on Thursday.  Friday brought a Gap down

UGLD (3x Gold) vs. Gold ets (1x) ... 10d SLV+: w/UGL : wSlv,Sil / 3m : 6m : 1yr : 2yr : 5yr :

gl9tTG6.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

zPYVAmI.png

The Canadian dollar opened Friday on a strong note, rising to a high not seen in two weeks against the U.S. dollar. The loonie strengthened up to 75 cents. Both Canada and the U.S. reported modest job growth in December 2018, with 93,000 jobs Canada added on an increase in part-time hiring, while the U.S. added 312,000 jobs that month.

Canada’s national unemployment rate was 5.6% in December, with St. John’s Newfoundland posting the largest growth at 7.5% while Vancouver (4.4%) and Victoria (3.8%) were in the basement.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2019/01/04/loonie-rises-as-more-canadians-gain-employment#Qws6u2UagDWG2TjH.99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Japanese YEN was also in the News this week

The sharp move at the beginning of the year suggests the DOLLAR may have a bad year

USD in JPY ... 10d : There was a FLASH CRASH on Wed.

3lXjTm7.gif

feJyNjr.png

Yen climbs on safe-haven appeal amid China growth fears

CNBC-3 Jan 2019
The yen rallied against the dollar and euro on Thursday as investors sought the perceived safety of the Japanese currency after a shock ...
 

The Yen-Inspired 'Flash-Crash' Is an Ugly Omen

Bloomberg-3 Jan 2019
The currency’s surge isn’t just about thin liquidity. A weakening dollar and yuan make the BoJ’s efforts to lessen the yen’s appeal look pretty futile.

The sharp appreciation of the yen in the twilight zone between U.S. and Asia trading days isn’t just an overreaction to poor results from Apple Inc. in thin trading (Japan doesn’t return from its New Year holiday until Friday). It is a portent of the struggles ahead for the country’s central bank in 2019. It’s going to be harder than ever to keep the currency from strengthening.

Two major obstacles have sprung up to thwart the Bank of Japan’s valiant attempts to weaken the yen: The U.S. Federal Reserve potentially ending its quarterly tightening cycle and the slowing Chinese economy. The latter was shown starkly by Apple’s lower revenue forecast.
A depreciating Chinese yuan and a dollar no longer propped up by rate hikes make the BoJ’s herculean effort to generate inflation and growth look almost futile. Barring intervention, on which Japan has a terrible record, it looks out of ammunition and ideas to get the currency under control and boost exports.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29  :  09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30  :  12/31 :  01/04  :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1281.3 : 1285.8 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.54 : 121.51 : 121.44 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 275.65 : 249.92 : 252.39 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2760.2 : 2506.8 : 2531.9 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2%: 195.6%: 196.9% :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $45.41 : $47.96 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : - 4.09% :  $67.41: $75.94: $75.74 : $66.48: $66.11: $57.35: $59.87 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05 : - 11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27: $25.19 : $21.14: $18.80: $14.03: $15.19 :

OI/X :  44.3% : 36.06% : ====== : 35.41% : 34.59%: 33.25%: 31.80%: 28.44%: 24.46% : 25.37% :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $2.940 : $3.044 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.630 : $2.650 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ====== ----------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 895.00 : 895.00 : 921.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 516.00 : 503.25 : 517.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 378.00 : 375.00 : 383.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 169.80 : 173.35 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : - 6.06% : $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72: $17.29 : $16.91: $16.94 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06% : r9.51% : R9.06% : R9.77% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.391 : r3.534 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.16 : $96.20 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.33 : 121.51 : 122.11 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1281.3 : 1285.8 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.602 : R1.61E : r1.611 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755.est : 761.74 : 796.0E : 798.25 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.64 : $19.53 :  $19.36 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $21.09 : $21.30 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $30.22 : $31.28 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $25.02 : $26.00 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  r1.730 : R1.723 : R1.765 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $14.52 : $14.73 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 15.540 : 15.790 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $25.99 : $27.20 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $41.08 : $39.06 : $39.69 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2588.2 : 2494.0 : 2514.9 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7367.9 : 7476.0 : 7761.1 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.83 : $23.82 : $24.26 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 151.83 : 133.90 : 137.19 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 18.16% : 16.24%: 16.36%: 17.13%: 17.67%: 17.79%: 17.68 %:
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 :  $3,979 : $3,770 : $3,747
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29  :  09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30  :  12/31 :  01/04  :

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JAMES DAMORE, the fired Google engineer, is still looking for a job

Checkmark Diversity with James Damore

Does anyone on the Left give a damn about what happens to a genuine victim of injustice?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold has climbed to Key Resistance near $1300 (/10.6= GBS-$122.6)

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif

GBS-etc ... since 2008 : Last: $120.83

DXa3TQ5.gif

GLD ... since 2009 :

Fb2KMQ4.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HIGHER LOWS - HK Property stocks may have put in an important Low

Wharf & Henderson... & HK10 - HLG

After restructuring, Wharf may now be a "development-oriented" version of HL

Symbol Company : YrLow : Last-- : change: PE-R.
HK 04/ Wharf Hld.: $18.70: $20.85: +11.5%: 3.89:
HK 10/ H.Lung Gr. : $19.12: $20.10: +5.12%: 4.60:
HK 12/ Henderson: $36.15: $41.20: +14.0%: 5.79:
HK101/ H.Lung Pr.: $13.90: $15.34: +10.4%: 7.71:
HSI--/ Heng Seng-- : 24,541: 25,836: +5.28%: N/A :

Chart : hk4 & hk12 ... update : w/hk10 : "the Pack" :

fJ2GpMb.gif

"The Pack" has slid lower, with HSI on top

Sebm7jI.gif

===

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

MOVING "LIKE BATS ... out of H3LL"

phnom-sampeau-bat-cave-near-battambang-c

It has been a good start to the year for some stocks  I own and have mentioned prominently here.

"BATS" ... update :

HMCROFC.gif

The best flying bat so far is...

ESV / Ensco Plc ... update : Last $4.47, up about 35% in less than 10 days

3PRJ6sm.gif

Just a few days ago, I bought June.$2C, paying $1.68.  Now with Intrinsic value (at $4.47) of $2.47, so +47%

Meanwhile, MUX would be in the Rats portfolio, ...and may stay there

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the biggest Rat ... which thank goodness is NOT in my portfolio

Apple stock has dropped 38 percent in 90 days

On October 3, the stock was selling at 232.07 per share, and while the price has fluctuated and the market in general has plunged in that time period, the stock has been on a downward trend for the past couple of months and has lost approximately $87 a share since that October high point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the "Bats" - my second largest position. Added 100k+ shares a few days ago:

'splosive!

$0.195 +0.035, Percent Change: +21.88%
Open: 0.165 / High: 0.195 / Low: 0.165 / Volume: 2,207,806

WM / Wallbridge ... 10d : 6mo :

h1L8KTW.gif

: 6mo :

RF3NwNy.gif

===

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another Bat took off !

CKG.t / Chesapeake Gold ... 10d : 6Bats : Last: $2.15 + 0.20 +10.26%

SxI8utR.gif

Up from $1.57 (12/21)  to $2.15  in 8 trading days - that's 36.9%

I have only a few of these. shudda added more w/ 20-20 hindsight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A DOLLAR BULL makes his argument

Mostly, it is the "last man standing" argument

The US Dollar vs Gold: The Final Showdown - Brent Johnson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASvl7St02Qs

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

( Here's how someone else explains Options & Uses them to manage risks)

Using Gold And Silver Options As A Strategic Investment Tool - Patrick Ceresna

He talks about Trading the Cycles... Average length: about Nine Months

(my own work finds short cycles of 4-6 months)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×