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DrBubb's Diary - Jan. 2019 Trading - v.120

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Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 120th Month = 10 full years!

9 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)

GjtfFlk.jpg

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

BUILD THE WALL! Pelosi / Schumer's "American Gothic: failure

"In the past, People CAME FOR FREEDOM. Now they come for Free Stuff!" > Stefan Molneux video

================

DrBubb's Diary - Jan. 2019 Trading - v.120

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

dpifCZO.gif

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term: tny_au_en_euoz_2.gif

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

5sSUg0D.png

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

WwD9kqI.png

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE :

Oil or Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

https://i.imgur.com/dxD6Z0d.gif

2F6D9uo.gif

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

WM3iUdC.gif

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

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DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC

03: 279.30 +3.65 91.0M: 16.44 : 19.44 +0.35 : 116.41 +0.87 8.45M: 1233.9 $52.95 : $96.84 -0.36 : 115.88 +0.55/ 00, 012: 000, 0031
04: 270.05 - 9.05 156.M: 20.74 : 19.60 +0.16 : 117.12 +0.71 7.15M: 1246.6 $53.25 : $96.96 +0.12 : 117.82 +1.94/ 04, 016: 017, 0048
05: Bush Funeral
06: 269.84 - 0.41 187.M: 21.19 : 19.71 +0.11 : 117.14 +0.02 9.02M: 1243.6 $51.49 : $96.80 - 0.16 : 118.19 +0.37/ 00, 025: 000, 0116
07: 263.57 - 6.27 144.M: 23.23 : 20.20 +0.49 : 118.09 +0.95 10.3M: 1252.6 $52.61 : $96.71 - 0.09 : 118.41 +0.22/ 03, 028: 054, 0170
10: 264.07 +0.50 145.M: 22.64 : 20.13 - 0.07 : 117.68 - 0.41 8.11M: 1249.4 $51.00 : $97.10 +0.39 : 118.90 +0.49/ 10, 038: 000, 0250
11: 264.13 +0.06 116.M: 21.76 : 20.01 - 0.12 : 117.54 - 0.14 6.01M: 1247.2 $51.65 : $97.45 +0.35 : 118.88 - 0.22/ 03, 041: 028, 0278
12: 265.46 +1.33 88.1M: 21.46 : 20.44 +0.43 : 117.79 +0.25 4.01M: 1250.0 $51.15 : $97.05 - 0.40 : 118.35 - 0.53/ 10, 051: 067, 0345
13: 265.37 - 0.09 87.6M: 20.65 : 20.48 +0.04 : 117.53 - 0.26 4.11M: 1247.4 $52.58 : $97.13 +0.03 : 118.07 - 0.18/ 01, 052: 040, 0405
14: 260.47 - 4.90 106.M: 21.63 : 20.12 -0.36 : 117.06 - 0.46 7.47M: 1241.4 $51.20 : $97.42 +0.29 : 118.48 +0.41/ 02, 054: 000, 0400
17: 255.36 - 5.11 148.M: 24.52 : 20.61 +0.49 : 117.87 + 0.81 7.64M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.12 -0.30 : 119.17 +0.69/ 00, 067: 000, 0509
18: 254.08 - 1.28 000.M: 25.58 : 21.09 +0.48 : 118.15 + 0.28 00.0M: 1253.6 $46.60 : $96.85 -0.27 : 119.60 +0.43/ 06, 073: 061, 0570
19: 251.26 - 3.82 199.M: 25.58 : 19.95 - 1.14 : 117.43 - 0.72 13.7M: 1256.4 $48.17 : $97.01 +0.16 : 121.18 +1.58/ 06, 079: 058, 0638
20: 245.73 - 5.53 000.M: 28.38 : 20.67 +0.72 : 119.24 +1.81 00.0M: 1267.9 $45.88 : $96.39 - 0.62 : 120.74 - 0.44/ 04, 083: 062, 0700
21: 240.70 - 5.03 217.M: 30.11 : 20.44  -0.23 : 118.72 - 0.52 12.5M: 1258.1 $45.59 : $96.95 +0.56 : 120.72 - 0.02/ 04, 087: 068, 0768
24: 234.34 - 6.36 147.M: 36.07 : 21.09 +0.65 : 120.02 + 1.30 9.74M: 1271.0 $42.25 : $96.55 -0.40 : 121.32 + 0.50/ 04, 091
26: 246.18 +11.84 219.M: 30.41 : 20.62 -0.47 : 119.66 - 0.36 14.3M: 1262.0 $46.25 : $97.05 +0.50 : 120.02 - 1.30/ 09, 100
27: 248.07 - 1.91 186.M: 29.96 : 20.97 +0.35 : 121.55 + 1.89 11.9M: 1281.1 $44.61 : $96.57 -0.00 : 120.04 +0.02/
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
02: 250.18 +0.26 109.M: 23.22 : 21.05 - 0.04 : 121.33 +0.08 11.6M: 1284.1 $46.54 : $96.66 +0.40 : 122.15 +0.64/ 00, 020 : 000, 100 :
03: 244.21 - 5.97 123.M: 25.45 : 21.48 +0.43 : 122.43 +1.10 14.8M: 1294.8 $47.09 : $96.20 - 0.46 : 123.54 +1.39/ 08, 028 : 067, 167 :
04: 252.39 +8.18 130.M: 21.38 : 21.30 - 0.18 : 121.44 - 0.99 13.3M: 1285.8 $47.96 : $96.20 UNCH : 122.11 - 1.43/ 06, 034 : 060, 227 :
07: 254.38 +1.99 94.3M: 21.40 : 21.04 - 0.26 : 121.86 +0.42 7.42M: 1289.9 $48.52 : $95.83 +0.17 : 121.75 - 0.36/ 02, 035 : 000, 345 :
08: 256.77 +2.29 00.0M: 20.47 : 21.05 +0.01 : 121.53 - 0.33 0.00M: 1285.9 $49.82 : $95.92 +0.09 : 121.43 - 0.32/ 10, 045 : 045, 390 :
09: 257.97 +1.20 82.6M: 19.98 : 21.32 +0.27 : 122.31 +0.78 10.2M: 1292.0 $52.36 : $95.14 - 0.76 : 121.24 - 0.19/ 00, 052 : 044, 434 :
10: 258.88 +0.91 89.9M: 19.50 : 21.00 - 0.32 : 121.59 - 0.72 6.28M: 1287.0 $52.59 : $95.55 +0.41 : 120.46 - 0.78/ 01, 053 : 020, 454 :
11: 258.98 +0.10 63.8M: 18.19 : 21.08 +0.08 : 121.80 +0.21 8.32M: 1289.5 $51.59 : $95.37 - 0.18 : 120.93 +0.47/ 05. 059 : 070, 524 :
14: 257.40 - 1.58 57.2M: 19.07 : 20.93 - 0.15 : 122.09 +0.29 6.46M: 1291.3 $50.51 : $95.59 +0.22 : 120.48 - 0.45/ 00, 063 : 000, 573 :
15: 260.35 +2.95 73.5M: 18.60 : 20.61 - 0.32 : 121.88 - 0.21 7.44M: 1288.4 $52.11 : $95.94 +0.35 : 120.04 - 0.44/ 04, 067 : 034,  607 :
16: 260.98 +0.63 65.2M: 19.04 : 20.60 - 0.01 : 122.27 +0.39 6.67M: 1293.8 $52.31 : $96.05 +0.09 : 120.16 +0.12/ 02, 069 : 030, 637 :
17: 262.96 +1.98 00.0M: 18.06 : 20.66 +0.06 : 122.11 - 0.16 0.00M: 1292.9 $52.36 : $96.07 +0.02 : 120.19 +0.03/
18: 266.46 +3.50 109.M: 17.80 : 20.31 - 0.31 : 121.02 - 1.09 9.79M: 1282.6 $54.04 : $96.36 +0.29 : 119.56 - 0.63/0.63/
21: Holiday ------------------ : ------------------------------------------------------------------: 1277.0
22: 262.86 -3.60 00.0M: 20.80 : 20.45 +0.14 : 121.49 +0.47 0.00M: 1283.6 $53.01 : $96.30 -0.06 :  120.37 +0.81/
23: 263.41 +0.55 78.5M: 19.52 : 20.49 +0.04 : 121.28 - 0.21  5.16M: 1284.0 $52.62 : $96.07 - 0.23 : 120.32 - 0.05/  00, 089: 000, 0910
24: 263.55 +0.14 54.2M: 18.89 : 20.50 +0.01 : 121.09 - 0.19 5.65M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.57 +0.21 : 121.11 +0.79/
25: 265.78 +2.23 00.0M: 17.42 : 21.18 +0.68 : 122.86 +1.79 0.00M: 1298.1 $53.69 : $95.78 - 0.79 : 120.53 -0.58/
28: 263.76 - 2.02 79.2M: 18.87 : 21.45 +0.27 : 123.29 +0.43 8.44M: 1303.1 $51.99 : $95.76 - 0.02 : 120.41 - 0.12/ 00,  96: 000, 1089
29: 263.41 - 0.35 57.5M: 19.13 : 21.97 +0.52 : 123.98 +0.69 10.5M: 1308.9 $53.31 : $95.81 +0.05 : 121.02 +0.61/ 04, 100: 072, 1161
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:
01: 270.06 +0.13 74.9M: 16.14 : 22.57 - 0.12 : 124.50 - 0.25 12.2M: 1322.1 $55.26 : $95.62 +0.06 : 120.96 - 1.01/

 

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Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides

idx24_usd_en_2.gif  : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : DXY: $96.17, EUR: $1.147, GBP: $1.275, CAD: $0.737, AUD: $0.704, PHP: 52.50 (FYE'18)

vpft4jt.gif

GDXJ - vs UDN, SLV, OIH ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :

Jz4WXIy.gif

FXFX : 2017-19.Q1 :

nud5Z9m.gif

Group #1 : update JNUG ($9.21), UGLD ($95.41), GDXJ ($30.22)

xn9BL6H.gif

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($2.82), CCO.t ($15.48), MUX.t ($2.50)

0heVxak.png

OIH ($14.03) vs. Drillers: RDC ($8.39), MDR ($6.54), ESV ($3.56) .10d / - also poised?

nVSKatz.gif

==

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Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

===

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

nVzEZ3p.gif

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

9S1H6rx.gif

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

nyB6fg2.gif

SPX ... 10-yr

3OBqgrF.gif

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

jdfaUBq.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

sWEYfy8.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

rpAk3nN.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

uPTblbm.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

3exBC6r.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

4yeFpcu.gif

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

OdgKj01.gif

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

eavKQ45.gif

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

jQ65ScB.gif

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

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Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update :

5bn3Jgu.gif

Old chart - to Feb.2018

OiR7uum.gif

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

N1Eoth5.gif

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90
Gold-toUSD_zp.png

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:Gold-toUSD.png

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d :

sbRuJRa.gif

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 9/07/2018

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Are we seeing / have we already seen.. Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

image.png

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

S57joQx.gif

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

PxNQSf4.gif

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BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

WnLivxx.gif

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :
SP_500_Bradley_Siderograph.png
===
Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

6bpXv6V.gif

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

wyXnzph.gif

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

fguOGn7.gif

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart : Last, PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

wDu3Hxx.gif

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

VoL3vU9.png

mvzyRJF.png

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MONTHLY Data - BOUNCE@

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :   12/31 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1281.3 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.54 : 121.51 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 275.65 : 249.92 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2760.2 : 2506.8 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2%: 195.6%:
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $45.41 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $66.48: $66.11: $57.35 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27 : $25.19 : $21.14: $18.80: $14.03 :

OI/X :  44.3% : 36.1% : ====== : 35.41% : 34.59%: 33.25% : 31.80%: 28.44%: 24.46% :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $2.940 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.630 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 895.00 : 895.00 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 516.00 : 503.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 378.00 : 375.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 169.80 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.29 : $16.91 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06% : r9.51% : R9.06% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.391 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.16 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.33 : 121.51 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1281.3 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.602 : R1.-
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 761.74 : 77-:
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.64 : $19.53 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $21.09 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $30.22 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $25.02 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  R1.730 : R1.723 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $14.52 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 15.540 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $2599 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $41.08 : $39.06 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2588.2 : 2494.0 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7367.9 : 7476.0 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.83 : $23.82 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 151.83 : 133.90 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 18.16% : 16.24%: 16.36% : 17.13%: 17.67%: 17.79% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 :  $3,979 : $3,770 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30  :  12/31 :

Ratio: XLE to-OIH

iErBye6.png

Ratio: OIH to-XLE -- You can BUY OIH without selling XLE.  Maybe sell later, or buy Puts on XLE

0kFhlyN.png

==

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REAL HOPE for Justice in 2019? - FASCINATING! Listen to what happened @ the Bush funeral, etc

Justice is Coming, #GITMO Style -- Dr. Dave Janda

==

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The Dollar's Slide is starting already maybe

24hr-euro-small.gif
DXY : 96.147 -0.247 -0.26%
EUR : $1.155 +0.68%
GBP : $1.275 -0.06%

====

Gold Ends 2018 Down 2%, But Sees Best Month Since Jan ‘17

Although down on the year, gold is getting ready to ring in 2019 on a strong note as it ends December with its best monthly gains since January 2017.

February gold futures last traded at $1,283 an ounce, unchanged on the day and slightly down from its highest level since June. However, for the year, gold is ending with a loss, the first since 2015.

m2wmfofm

According to some commodity analysts gold has significantly benefited from shifting U.S. interest rate expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool showed that one month ago markets were pricing at least one-rate hike in 2019. Heading into the new year, markets are now pricing only an 11% chance of a rate hike.

“[gold’s] good performance is the expectations of less Fed rate hikes,” said George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management. Market. “The price of gold is a barometer of economic and political well being of our times.”

Although gold has strong upside momentum, some analysts are warning investors to not expect prices to rally in a straight line.

Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures said that the yellow metal could see some selling pressure as price push closer to $1,300 an ounce.

“As Gold treks near the psychological $1,300 mark, it will have a tough time pushing through here without a fresh catalyst or outright U.S Dollar weakness,” he said in a note to clients. “We believe it is important to capitalize on strength and maintain that traders should lock in some gains here if they have followed our bullish bias over the last 90 days.”

 

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Long Gold, Short Equities Top Trade For 2019 – DailyFX.com

gold-2048295_640.jpg

(Kitco News) - Gold could do well in 2019 as risk aversion grips financial markets, according to one market strategist.

In his 2019 outlook report, John Kicklighter, chief currency strategist at DailyFX.com said that in the current market environment one of his top trades for next year is to go long gold, as he expects U.S. equity markets to struggle.

“It is difficult to envision a genuine scenario for the year ahead that paints the U.S. shares market as 'oversold' or 'value' - but there are many routes for which fear sweeps in. I will look for U.S. indices to struggle,” Kicklighter said in the report.

He noted that the yellow metal could push to as high as $1,400 an ounce as recession fears start to grow.

“If we have another tip into recessionary fear, monetary policy will be a highlight once again - but not because of a sharp and deep dovish turn,” he said. “The developed world's central banks don't have the capacity to fend off such a tide should it form. Instead, the depreciation in traditional fiat currencies would arise from the recognition that easing has been rendered completely ineffective.”

Gold has seen a surge of momentum as equity markets see their worst selling pressure since 2018. The S&P 500 prepares to end the year down more than 6%.

Meanwhile, gold futures are expected to end the year down around 2%. December has been a strong month for the yellow metal as prices are up 4.5%, its best monthly performance since January 2017.

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Images of Broken Light... Across the Universe

NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft passed by Ultima Thule, a Manhattan-sized rock a billion miles farther out from its Pluto passage in 2015.

NASA spacecraft signals from most distant object EVER visited...

Billion miles BEYOND Pluto...

The full scope of observations made by New Horizons will take nearly 2 years to beam back to Earth because it traveled so far.

Team members gathered at Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory, home to Mission Control, cheer upon receiving the signal, which took so long to reach them because the small, icy object is 4 billion miles from the Earth and 1 billion miles from Pluto.

190101-nasa-new-horizons-alan-stern-cs-1

Mostly white guys made this happen (Get over it!)

Though the closest point of the flyby, only 2,200 miles above Ultima Thule’s surface, occurred just after midnight, the spacecraft was pointed at the object for a few more hours with its antenna, rigidly locked to the spacecraft body, pointing away from Earth. And once the spacecraft rotated to send a burst of housekeeping data back to NASA’s Deep Space Network radio telescope in Madrid, the signal then took 6 hours and 7 minutes at the speed of light to reach Earth. Comparing that travel time with the eight minutes it takes light from the Sun to reach Earth or the slightly over one second that it takes light from the Moon to reach Earth shows how far away the encounter with Ultima Thule was.

. . . The audience at JHUAPL cheered as they watched the control room on a video feed as system after system reported “green,” meaning success. And one signal showed that the Solid State Recorder’s computer memory was full, indicating that the spacecraft took its quota of data.

At a press conference an hour later, Principal Investigator Alan Stern of Southwest Research Institute of Boulder, Colorado, led a team reporting on what is known, though the images from last night won’t be available until Wednesday.

“I don’t know about you, I’m liking this 2019 thing so far,” joked Stern. Mission Operations chief Alice Bowman reported on the data successfully received via the Madrid station of the Deep Space Network.

Stern summarized his team's accomplishments by saying, “They scored 100 on the test.”

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Hong Kong Real Estate Prices Fall Most Since 2008

  • The monthly home price index fell 3.5 per cent to 366.3 in November, up from 2.56 per cent in October
  • Largest fall in a single month since November 2008

Prices of lived-in homes in Hong Kong saw the sharpest decline in a single month in November since the global financial crisis in 2008.

HK$ per sq ft of saleable area : Nov 2018 HK$22,714 : 

wYg2By9.png

Source: Midland Realty

The monthly home price index, which represents movements in the secondary property market, fell 3.5 per cent to 366.3 in November, compared to the 2.56 per cent slide in October, 1.27 per cent in September and 0.05 per cent in August, according to data from the Rating and Valuation Department.

Home prices have slumped 7.2 per cent after peaking in July following a 28-month surge starting in April 2016,

. . . “It is the largest fall in a single month since November 2008,” said Derek Chan, head of research at Ricacrop Properties.

Home price plunged 8.22 per cent in November 2008 and hit the year’s low of 104.8 in December. After a three-month decline, home prices began to rebound in January 2009.

A number of investment banks and analysts have forecast that property prices will continue to fall, with some predicting declines of as much as 25 per cent next year.

Denis Ma, head of research at property consultants JLL, expects home prices to fall at least 15 per cent in 2019.

(PRIMARY Prices UNDER Second hand):

“Part of the reason why prices fell at a faster rate in November was because developers started putting more projects on to the market in the previous months. The flurry of new launches has seen sell-through rates fall as developers also scrambled to find buyers,” Ma said.

Buying interest also remained weak.

“Home sales in the secondary market plunged 67 per cent over the weekend with just one flat sold,” said Willy Liu, a director at Ricacrop Properties, which monitors 10 major housing estates in Hong Kong.

Sino Land has been offering flats at its Grand Central development in Kwun Tong at prices that are 14 per cent lower compared to those nearby, luring home seekers away from the secondary market.

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GOLD, SILVER & CURRENCY CRISIS 2019

To date, we have escaped a currency crisis in the West, but given rising debt levels and increasingly illiquid banks, how much longer can the good times last? Are gold, silver & precious metals mining stocks poised to finally rise toward their true value in 2019? Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver and Chairman of First Mining Gold joins me to discuss.

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KITCO

Silver Starts A Breakout Move Higher The Technical TraderDec 31
The Silver Lining In Gold Todd 'Bubba' HorwitzDec 28
John Rubino - John And I Were Finally Right by Kerry Lutz, 2018-12-27
MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/JohnRubino_26Dec18.mp3
=====

This Daily chart of Silver shows the December 26 upside breakout move. We can clearly see the breakout above $15.00 and the historical resistance just below $15.00. This move is extremely important in the context of the total risk play that has recently played out through the past two months. Take a look as how quiet the Silver market has been over the past few months. Take a look at how Silver reacted only moderately to the recent market selloff and Fed statements. There was no real “fear” exhibited in the metals markets or in Silver over the past 60+ days. Yet, today, there is some real fear that is playing out in the price of Silver.

Technical1.png

. . . GOLD 

appears to be breaking out to new highs despite the strength of the dollar and the equity markets. The negativity and fear surrounding gold is helping propel prices higher and it now looks headed to the next level of $1,300.

Silver has suddenly gained strength as well breaking out as it targets $16. After months of consolidation, silver is attracting new money buyers and looks ready to join gold in what looks like the next bull market in metals.

Although both gold and silver look good and appear to be headed to new highs, that doesn’t alleviate the potential for a reversal and some selling pressure. Traders and investors must still watch the support levels. Gold’s support is $1,250 and silver support is $15. As with any trade, the key to success is patience and discipline.

. . . 

GlhfCDyQ

Frank HolmesFrank E. Holmes  

Strengths

  • The best performing metal this week was silver, up 5.15 percent, finally getting some respect as it approaches its 200-day moving average. Hitting six-month highs this week, money managers are the most bullish they’ve been on gold in months. Gold has been a beneficiary of the volatility experienced in global equities this week. Bloomberg reports that gold priced in the British pound has jumped back above 1,000 pounds an ounce and is trading at its highest level since September 2017. The move in gold could be further supported by international markets, which have seen the greenback fall to nearly a five-year low of just 61.9 percent of allocated reserves, reports Bloomberg.
  • Gold bulls added substantial positions to ETFs backed by bullion as the yellow metal is heading for its best month in two years on the heels of the partial U.S. government shutdown and shaky equities. Gold-backed ETF holdings have surged by more than 100 tons since October and the rapid inflow has helped to boost prices, reports Bloomberg. On Thursday’s trading session, ETFs bought 662,080 troy ounces of gold, which is the biggest one-day increase in at least 12 months. Also on Thursday, the SPDR Gold Shares fund saw inflows of more than $643 million, the most since July 2016.

FH20181231-1.png

  • Turkey continues to add to its gold reserves. Holdings rose $191 million from the previous week. The country spent most of 2018 selling off about 15 percent of its bullion in an effort to prop up the local currency, but its reversal to add to reserves is a positive trend. According to official figures from the central bank in Ankara, Turkey’s reserves are worth $19.8 billion as of the end of last week.

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HONG KONG Stocks

Stock-- : -Close- : chg.: pct.chg.: Low
HS index: 25,130 - 715., - 2.77%: 25055 / Hang Seng Index
HK2823 : $11.20 - 0.20, - 1.75%: 11.14 / A50 China Index
HK101 - : $14.58 - 0.34, - 2.28%: 14.52 / Hang Lung Prop.

HK2823 (A50 China stocks) vs HSI ... all-data :

5zsRkyM.gif

HK10 -etc ... update : HK-Hlg-2823-Au : 10d :

c9OD2xt.gif

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Hope you've had a nice break. I won't have much to say about gold for now as prices seem to be developing as expected. Silver seems to be tagging along for the ride. I think cryptos may still be sluggish but the one I hold, Ether, seems to have a strong v-shaped bottom. I had mentioned of selling some before Christmas but I bought it all back and then some around the 130 level.

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Interesting.

I have been so busy on some year end stock trades, I havent had time to look at Cryptos

(Below is another Useful interview with Tucker Carlson about how US elites are letting Voters down)

After Words with Tucker Carlson

 

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Day #1, in 2019 Trading : Dow may open down - 350 points

Jan 2 7:33am:

Global stock markets kicked off 2019 with more steep falls triggered by new signs of economic weakness in China.

Major stock indexes in Europe and Asia dropped sharply on Wednesday after new data suggested that China's vast manufacturing sector contracted in December.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed 2.8% lower. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.2% and Australia's ASX dropped 1.6%. Japan's markets were closed for a public holiday.
    In Europe, the UK's FTSE was down 0.5%, while France's CAC slipped 1.4% and Germany's DAX shed 0.1%.
    US stock market futures indicated the Dow would open sharply lower.
    The New Year sell-off comes after a difficult 2018 for many investors. Last year was the worst for US stocks since 2008. December was a particularly dreadful month, with the Dow plunging 8.7%.

    Chinese economy under pressure

    Among the top concerns for investors is faltering growth in China, the world's second biggest economy, and continuing trade tensions with the United States. The Shanghai Composite slumped almost 25% last year, making it the world's worst-performing major market.
    There were new signs of weakness in China on Wednesday.
     
    The latest purchasing managers index survey, conducted by media group Caixin and research firm Markit, fell to 49.7 in December from 50.2 in November. It is this second time this week that data has indicated China's huge manufacturing sector is now contracting.
    "It is looking increasingly likely that the Chinese economy may come under greater downward pressure," said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at research firm CEBM Group, in a statement accompanying the Caixin PMI release.
    Analysts said that many investors were now betting on the prospect of a significant global economic slowdown within the next 18 months.

    More

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    Apple disappoints (after hours)

    Dow futures drop more than 300 points as tech shares get hit after hours on a warning from Apple

    • The main ETF tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 dropped in after hours trading Wednesday.
    • Dow and S&P 500 futures opened for trading more than 1 percent lower.
    • Apple said it sees first-quarter revenue of $84 billion vs. a previous guidance of a range of $89 billion and $93 billion. It blamed weak China sales for the shortfall and some weakness in upgrade cycle in other countries.
    • Apple shares were down 30 percent last quarter as Wall Street analysts warned this kind of announcement could be coming.

    It’s going to be a tough day for technology stocks on Thursday after Apple warned first-quarter sales would be less than it previously expected.

    The Invesco QQQ Trust, which track the tech heavy Nasdaq-100 Index, lost more than 2 percent in after hours trading on Wednesday. Apple shares cratered by 7 percent. The S&P 500 ETF Trust, tracking the broader market, lost more than 1 percent in extended trading.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 338 points shortly after the open of trading Wednesday evening. S&P 500 futures lost 1.3 percent. The yen saw a giant move higher versus the U.S. dollar (about 2 percent) as investors sought safety in the Japanese currency.

    . . . There have been several reports pointing to weak iPhone sales in recent months. Some Apple suppliers cut their estimates last quarter, leading many to speculate consumers weren’t upgrading to the new models. Apple also took the unusual step of promoting discounted prices for iPhones on its website if customers traded in an older model...

     

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    JOY!
    I did actually buy some Newgold calls on Dec.31st

    Bought Feb.$0.50 calls at 30 cents

    Today, NGD has traded as high as 84 cents, and the calls have traded up to 38 cents

    Close: $0.8253 Change: +0.0685 : +9.05%
    Open: 0.76 / High: 0.8442 / Low: 0.76 / Vol.: 2,511,874

    NGD / Newgold ... 10d : 3mo :

    44IFyOK.gif

    : 3mo :

    vjk8bJ0.gif

    ===

    Actually, I paid for them by selling Puts on SIL.

    Sold SIL Jul $28 puts @ 4.0333 ... Breakeven: is $23.97

    SIL / Silver shs etf : 10d : 3mo : Close: $25.17    Change: +0.15 : +0.60%
    Open: 24.86 / High: 25.40 / Low: 24.77 / Volume: 85,118

    Jul $28 puts: $3.50 - 4.00 : Mid-$3.75

    So I am making money on both sides of the trade so far

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    BUYING NGD/Newgold Feb.$0.50 Calls was an end of the year trade. A bit like the Oil Service stocks*.

    (I thought we would see a shift from selling to buying in NGD, because it was :  Biggest Loser of 2018, among Gold Miners: -73%.)

    Many were Selling during December to lock in Tax Losses. That pressure ends completely in the new year.

    And those who sold earlier may re-enter the stock, locking in a tax loss, and to establish a new position at Lower cost.

    Often Works well after a Big Selloff at year-end (... though not always)

    ===

    *Update on Oil Service stocks:

    YE'18 : OIH ( $14.03 )  vs. Drillers: RDC ( $8.39 ), MDR ( $6.54 ), ESV ( $3.56).10d /
    01/02: $14.37 +2.42% vs. Drillers: $8.74 +4.17%, $7.16 +9.48%, $3.73, +4.78%

    - "... poised?", I asked.  Let's see what happens to these stocks the coming days.

    4n4GyJU.gif

    OIH / Oil Service ... All-Data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / YE'18-update / Last: $14.03 / YrL: $13.13, H: $29.86

    EOhHinK.gif

    ==

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    2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three

    MUX vs. GCM (tprff), NGD & GDXJ ... 3-mos : fr. 10/1/18 : 9/5/2018 :

    CuETRX1.gif

    co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- /
    Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. /
    Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% /
    Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% /
    Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% /
    Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% /
    Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% /
    *cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018
    ===
    12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% /
    Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% /
    shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% /
    MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% /  768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% /
    Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% /  00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% /  800. > 810. +00.0% /
    EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% /  769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% /
    /oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k>4.84k -30.9%/5.06k>3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% /
    NW 224. > 260. +00.0% /  521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% /
    BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% /
    p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% /
    ====

     SUMMARY

    1. GCM / Gran Columbian looks very cheap by comparison with the others
    + Tiny MktCap of $100M; that is only 38% of GCM's $5.40 Book Value
    + Adding debt, the Enterprize Value (EV) is only $150 Million
    + That's a tiny $690 per ounce of production: 217k oz, & growing
    + GCM is showing good Free Cash flow & profits - looks very cheap, performing well.

    2. MUX / McEwen Mining has a well-regarded CEO with a big personal stake
    + Annual production was expected to grow by 16% 128k oz in 2018
    + Adding gold equiv. from Copper, etc, 171k GEqv oz expected, up 12.5% over 2017
    + Valuation looks stretched at $3,630 per oz. of GEO. That's down -28% from prior year.
    + But the Market has had confidence in MUX's ability to grow production in future years
    + 2019 should be another UP year in production, because...  (Black Fox Mine is starting up?)
    + Has high historical beta to Gold prices, so could climb 2-4X faster than Gold

    3. NGD / Newgold was a big loser in 2018, down -73%, highest drop among mid-producers
    + NGD's production costs @xxx were higher than expected. That caused price drop
    + NGD carries over $800M in debt, and so was forced the sell off two mines in 2018
    + Valuation dropped sharply, so by year end... EV / oz. was down almost half to $3,260/oz.
    + Should be cheap enough to bring a bounce, if production keeps growing and the new
    management can bring some operational improvements. Gold price might help too.

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