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NGD / Newgold. Playing bounce in 2018's weakest

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NGD / Newgold. Playing bounce in 2018's weakest

According to Kitco...

Mining_1228_2.png

> more: https://www.kitco.com/news/2018-12-28/Top-Mining-Gainers-and-Decliners-in-2018.html

About what about this one, with 200,000 oz+ production?:

Symbol/Mining stock---- : 12/20/17: 12/21/18: change

GCM.t / Gran Columbia-- :  C $1.87  :  C $2.73  : + 46.0%  x 48.2M shs: C$131.6M

TPRFF / Gran Col.in US$  :  $  1.46  :   $   2.03   : + 39.0%  x 48.2M shs: $ 97.8M

GDXJ / JuniorGoldMiners:   $32.72  :    $28.94  :  - 11.6%

CAD   / in uS Dollars---------: x $0.779 :  x $0.735 : - 5.65%

Even after the 2018 Gain, it may be one of the very cheapest Gold miners

Obviously, it is not over $500M MktCap. Maybe it will be someday

LOSER? the biggest Loser was NGD : -73.1%

NGD / Newgold ... update : 6-mo : 3-mo : last $0.7735

moIYuCC.gif

: 6-mo fewer lines : 3-mo : last $0.7735 : Options : NGD-website : presentations :

dM57YB7.gif

New Gold (NGD) -73% - The Canadian miner struggled with operational challenges at its Rainy River Mine in Ontario. The company cut its forecast production while increasing cost estimates for 2018

LINKS:

.> website:

 > Newgold Bullboard : http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=ngd

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CLOSER ... from xx : 6-mo : 3-mo : last $0.7735 : Options :

97WWPS6.gif

Share Structure

- as at July 25, 2018
Shares Issued and Outstanding (Basic)      578,748,338
Stock Options (exercisable for # shares)   9,953,450
Series A Warrants (expired June 28, 2017)

Market Cap, : 578.7 Million x $0.78 = $451 Million .

In addition, there is about $800 Million in Debt

Q3 Highlights

Gold production from total operations of 114,025 ounces and copper production of 21.7 million pounds
Operating expense from continuing operations of $644 per gold ounce and $1.57 per copper pound
All-in sustaining costs from total operations(1) of $966 per ounce, including total cash costs(2) of $424 per ounce
Revenues of $147 million from continuing operations
Operating cash flows of $51 million, or $0.09 per share
Operating cash flows before changes in non-cash operating working capital of $83 million, or $0.14 per share
Loss from continuing operations of $2 million, or $0.00 per share
Net loss of $166 million, or $0.29 per share, including an impairment loss, net of tax of $162 million, relating to the sale of the Mesquite Mine

 

   
   
   

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JOY!
I did actually buy some Newgold calls on Dec.31st

Bought Feb.$0.50 calls at 30 cents

Today, NGD has traded as high as 84 cents, and the calls have traded up to 38 cents

Close: $0.8253 Change: +0.0685 : +9.05%
Open: 0.76 / High: 0.8442 / Low: 0.76 / Vol.: 2,511,874

NGD / Newgold ... 10d : 3mo :

44IFyOK.gif

: 3mo :

vjk8bJ0.gif

===

Actually, I paid for them by selling Puts on SIL.

Sold SIL Jul $28 puts @ 4.0333 ... Breakeven: is $23.97

SIL / Silver shs etf : 10d : 3mo : Close: $25.17    Change: +0.15 : +0.60%
Open: 24.86 / High: 25.40 / Low: 24.77 / Volume: 85,118

Jul $28 puts: $3.50 - 4.00 : Mid-$3.75

So I am making money on both sides of the trade so far

 

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2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three

MUX vs. GCM (tprff), NGD & GDXJ ... 3-mos : fr. 10/1/18 : 9/5/2018 :

CuETRX1.gif

co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- /
Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. /
Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% /
Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% /
Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% /
Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% /
Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% /
*cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018
===
12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% /
Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% /
shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% /
MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% /  768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% /
Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% /  00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% /  800. > 810. +00.0% /
EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% /  769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% /
/oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k>4.84k -30.9%/5.06k>3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% /
NW 224. > 260. +00.0% /  521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% /
BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% /
p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% /
====

 SUMMARY

1. GCM / Gran Columbian looks very cheap by comparison with the others
+ Tiny MktCap of $100M; that is only 38% of GCM's $5.40 Book Value
+ Adding debt, the Enterprize Value (EV) is only $150 Million
+ That's a tiny $690 per ounce of production: 217k oz, & growing
+ GCM is showing good Free Cash flow & profits - looks very cheap, performing well.

2. MUX / McEwen Mining has a well-regarded CEO with a big personal stake
+ Annual production was expected to grow by 16% 128k oz in 2018
+ Adding gold equiv. from Copper, etc, 171k GEqv oz expected, up 12.5% over 2017
+ Valuation looks stretched at $3,630 per oz. of GEO. That's down -28% from prior year.
+ But the Market has had confidence in MUX's ability to grow production in future years
+ 2019 should be another UP year in production, because...  (Black Fox Mine is starting up?)
+ Has high historical beta to Gold prices, so could climb 2-4X faster than Gold

3. NGD / Newgold was a big loser in 2018, down -73%, highest drop among mid-producers
+ NGD's production costs @xxx were higher than expected. That caused price drop
+ NGD carries over $800M in debt, and so was forced the sell off two mines in 2018
+ Valuation dropped sharply, so by year end... EV / oz. was down almost half to $3,260/oz.
+ Should be cheap enough to bring a bounce, if production keeps growing and the new
management can bring some operational improvements. Gold price might help too.

 

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THU, 1/3:
0.8991 +0.0738 +8.94%
Open: 0.8499 / High: 0.90 / Low: 0.8301    Vol.: 4,049,029

 

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NEW GOLD's Bullboard - > on Stockhouse

New Gold is a Canadian-focused intermediate gold mining company with two core producing assets in top-rated jurisdictions: the Rainy River and New Afton Mines in Canada. The Company also operates the Cerro San Pedro Mine in Mexico (which transitioned to residual leaching in 2016). In addition, New Gold owns 100% of the Blackwater project located in Canada.

I got spanked on this one...
posted December 13, 2018 12:25 am  by  canne
NGD cost me a pile of money but I took my licks and sold out in Sept.
I gave up on the mining business as all I see is trouble up ahead
and NGD is in a weak position. I doubt they will go bankrupt but...
- read more
/ 2.
CEO bought 250,000 shares on the open market last month.  Mega Bullish!
/ 3.
(Dec.16): Technically, still a very weak stock.  
The 30 week ma is falling hard and the RSI just cannot move out of negative
territory.  It is possible that price may rise over the short term
but I...read more
/ 4.
NGD reserves / posted Dec.16, 2018 05:50 pm  by  TELEMARKER
http://www.newgold.com/investors/reserves-and-resources/default.aspx
/ 5.
Congrats once again to Newgold
posted December 31, 2018 - by  papineau
This is very difficult to do, but NGD has made the list of TSX worst performers
TWO years in a row. Way to go guys.  Are you going for a three peat?

+ M. Papinewgold----you should buy some today at fire sale prices-
--going to $2.00 in 2019.  Today of course there's selling for 2018 tax loss.
Get some while it's cheap
+ Psych01 tax loss selling should have been completed by last Thurs Dec 27.  
Revenue Canada requires a 2 day window for tax losses to be completed today
(Dec 31) and got investors to recognize the...read more  
/ 6.
debt/cashflow (4X?)
currently about 4x and cash on hand running low   
can they turn around the material handling/processing (peat,basalt)  
problems at rainy river  before they need a cash infusion ?
 ...read more
/ 7.
Renaud bought a whole pack of shares in Nov 2018
posted January 01, 2019 11:36 am  by  SmithersDithers
Our CEO is leading from the front.  January production numbers and 2019 forecast
could be a gamechangers here.   I think he has stopped the bleeding.   
If we get a surge in the POG then...read more
/ 8.
NGD was the worst performing mid size gold stock last year ,
Oliphant almost managed to bankrupt the company .This year might indeed
be different as POG is rising and there is a new management team...read more
/ 9.
Barrick is looking for mines...in CANADA. Just on BNN Commodities.
Maybe they will buy New Gold. Dom
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/we-definitely-need-more-assets-in-canada-barrick-s-new-ceo-says-1.1189659
==

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Good News !

NEW GOLD REPORTS STRONG FOURTH QUARTER

New Gold Inc. has released strong fourth quarter operating results from the Rainy River and New Afton mines, with Rainy River achieving annual revised gold production guidance and New Afton exceeding annual gold production guidance as well as achieving the high end of annual copper production guidance. All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Fourth quarter and recent operational highlights:

  • Total gold production for the quarter was 110,559 ounces and 455,448 ounces for the year, including 97,428 ounces and 315,483 ounces, respectively, from continuing operations (1).
  • The Rainy River mine reported best-ever quarterly gold production of 77,202 ounces, a 39-per-cent increase over the prior quarter. The stronger operational performance achieved in September continued into the fourth quarter with the last four months of the year contributing 45 per cent of the 227,284 ounces produced for the year, achieving revised annual guidance.
  • The New Afton mine delivered another solid quarter with gold production of 18,778 ounces, contributing to annual production of 77,329 ounces, which exceeded the high end of annual guidance. New Afton produced 20.8 million pounds of copper for the quarter and 85.1 million pounds for the year, achieving the high end of annual guidance.
  • During the quarter, mine closure activities continued at the Cerro San Pedro mine and 1,448 gold ounces were recovered from residual leaching of the heap leach pads.
  • Consistent with the renewed vision of repositioning the Rainy River mine for long-term success, the company has adopted a disciplined approach to capital allocation as well as mine life optimization. Accordingly, management has deferred the 2019 underground mine development plan to 2020. During 2019, the company will launch a comprehensive review that includes alternative underground mining scenarios with the overall objective of reducing capital and improving the return on investment for the underground portion of the life of mine. Further details will be provided in the 2019 guidance press release, scheduled for release in the second half of January.
  • An internally financed development strategy for the New Afton C zone has been launched, which will extend mine life to 2030 with robust economics. Further details will be provided in the 2019 guidance press release, scheduled for release in the second half of January.

"We are pleased to report a strong fourth quarter at both Rainy River and New Afton. It is encouraging to see the improvement in overall performance achieved at Rainy River in the final four months of the year. This marks a pivotal turning point for Rainy River as we reposition the asset for long-term success. The stronger production delivered during these months allowed the operation to comfortably meet revised annual production guidance.

> MORE: https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aNGD-2703954&symbol=NGD&region=C

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Another Great day for NGD ... chart

Last: 1.08  +0.12, +12.50%
Open: 1.01 / High: 1.11 / Low: 0.997 / Volume: 7,677,773
That's HUGE Volume, so the move may continue,
Though I see some resistance at $1.11 - 1.12

Bullboard Comments:

New Gold Reports Strong Fourth Quarter

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/796399/new-gold-reports-strong-fourth-quarter PR Newswire TORONTO, Jan. 8, 2019 Rainy River Achieves Revised Annual Guidance New Afton Exceeds Annual...read more

RE:New Gold Reports Strong Fourth Quarter

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Newgold pulls back on lighter volume

NGD / Newgold ... update : $1.09 - 0.02

wo8VoJq.gif

==

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Pullback in NGD continues

NGD / Newgold ... update : $1.02 - 0.03

p38Smn5.gif

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