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OIH, Oil Service - A Long Term Low near $14?

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OIH, Oil Service etf - Are we now in a long Term Low buying window?

Rationale: made record Low price, Oil is at low of year, & tax selling is driving weak oil svc. shares lower

OIH / Oil Service ... All-Data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / YE'18-update / Last: $14.03 / YrL: $13.13, H: $29.86

---> vs. components: 6mo Top5 : nxt5 : drlr : oth : bells o uo/ 10d Top5 : nxt5 : drlr : oth : bells o uo : bats :

EOhHinK.gif

( ADDED - in Edit 12/26 : Oil Service stocks Up by 6-14% in just one day's trading.)

OIH etc ... 10d : Daily from 6.19 : Updated 1/04 $15.19 / prior charts: #1, 2, 3, 4...

qHNKcxQ.gif

Ratio: OIH to-USO may have reached a major low near 141% : $14.17 / $9.90 = 143.1%

nmPzop9.png

Brent Oil

eT1w1Ou.png

OIH vs OILB (Brent etf) ... all-data : 10-yr : 5yr : 3yr - 10d / Last: $15.20 / $25.15 = R-60.4%

yp3M3XJ.gif

In the above chart (since late 2005), it is very RARE to see OIH under 62% of OILB, as now

Sym. Last$: %WTI :$-Chg. %Chg. R-WTI: yield: Year-L: Year-H: -Vs.H-:
brnt $56.08: 100.% -$2.58, -4.40%  100.%: 0.00% $55.58: $86.74: -35.3%
oilb  $25.15: 44.8% -$1.12, -4.26%  96.8%: 0.00% $25.15: $37.98: -33.8%
WTI: $46.60: 83.1% -$3.60, -7.17% 163.%: 0.00% $46.11: $76.90: -39.4%:
USO: $ 9.79: 17.4% -$0.66, -6.32% 144.%:  0.00% $  9.73: $16.24: -39.7%
===
OIH: $15.20: 27.1% -$0.31, -2.00% 45.5%: 4.46% $15.11: $29.87: -49.1%
SLB: $37.84: 67.5% -$1.21, -3.10% 70.5%: 5.29% $37.67: $80.35: -52.9%
HAL: $28.98: 51.7% -$0.11, -0.38% 08.6%: 2.48% $28.17: $57.86: -49.9%
HP -: $54.45: 97.1% -$1.92, -3.41% 77.5%: 5.22% $53.66: $75.10: -27.5%
bhge:  21.22: 37.8% -$0.40, -1.85% 42.0%: 3.39% $20.81: $37.76: -43.8%
TS -:  $21.79: 38.9% -$0.04, -0.18% 04.1%: 2.39% $21.66: $40.64: -46.4%
===
RIG: (see post#2 below)
RDC: $ 8.88: 00.0% -$0.50, -5.33% 00.0%: 0.00% $ 8.53: $20.87: -00.0%
===========

Weighting-Top 12: (symbol):    pct.
Schlumberger NV------- (SLB19.89%
Halliburton Co.----------- (HAL17.72% -cuml: 37.61% Top2
Helmerich and Payne--- (HP)    5.97%
Baker Hughes A GE--- (BHGE)  5.70%
Tenaris SA--------------------- (TS)   5.29% -cuml: 54.57% Top5
TechnipFMC PLC--- (FTI:PAR)  5.15%
Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN)   4.80%
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)   4.56%
Transocean Ltd. ---------- (RIG)   4.46%
Core Laboratories NV.- (CLB)   4.20% -cuml: 77.74% Top10
Apergy Corp.--------------- (APY)   3.22%
Ensco PLC ------------------ (ESV)   2.30% -cuml: 83.26% Top12
------------------------------ sub-total: 83.26%
Transocean Ltd.----------- (RIG)    4.46%
Rowan Companies PLC (RDC)  1.73%
Nabors Industries Ltd.-- (NBR)  1.19%
Noble Corporation PLC-- (NE)    1.09%
Diamond Offsh.Drilling - (DO)    1.06%

> components: pg1 : pg2 :

OIL News https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/Wo

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The Drillers - may be the hardest hit - given the high cost breakeven points of their customers

OIH: $14.76: 25.8% -$0.44, -2.89% REVs : 4.59% $14.63: $29.87: -50.6% / 1 day later  than above, Brent $57.24
===  $57.24: %OIH : -------- :  -------- : vsOIH : yield :
RIG : $  6.96: 47.2% -$0.18, -2.66% 92.0%: 0.00% $ 6.91: $14.47: -51.9%
RDC: $  8.57: 58.1% -$0.31, -3.49% 121.%: 0.00% $ 8.49: $20.87: -58.9%
NBR: $  2.19: 14.8% -$0.14, -6.01% 208.%: 0.00% $ 2.16: $  8.87: -75.3%
NE -: $  2.93: 19.9% -$0.03, -1.01% 34.9%: 0.00% $ 2.90: $  7.41: -60.6%
DO -: $  9.56: 00.0% -$0.18, -1.85% 00.0%: 0.00% $ 9.47: $21.92: -56.4%
???  : $00.00: 00.0% -$0,00, -0,00% 00.0%: 0.00% $ 0.00: $00.00: -00.0%

RDC / Rowan Drilling ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / RDC: $ 8.88 -0.50, -5.33% YrL: $ 8.53

6yDAcAK.gif

==

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The OIH to OILB ratio

OIH vs OILB (Brent etf) ... all-data : 10-yr : 5yr-W : 3yr - 10d / Last: $15.20 / $25.15 = R-60.4%

yp3M3XJ.gif

: 5yr-W : from 12/2013 >

dhuU2jg.gif

YrEnd: - Ratio -- OIH - : -- OILB- :  -- XLE- :

2013 : 67.83%: $48.07 : $70.87 : $88.51 :
2014 : 101.8%: $35.92 : $35.28 : $79.16 :
2015 : 138.8%: $26.45 : $19.05 : $60.32 :
2016 : 134.3%: $33.35 : $24.83 : $75.32 :
2017 : 93.04%: $26.05 : $28.00 : $72.26 :
2018 :
12/18 60.44%: $15.20 : $25.15 : $59.52 :

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SLB - vs-OIH ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / Last: $37.90 +$0.06

dS06M1n.gif

HAL - vs-OIH ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / Last: $29.09 +$0.11

dS06M1n.gif

SLB - vs-OIH ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / Last:

dd

 

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NEW LOW, as Stocks fall too

OIH : $14.73 - $0.47, - 3.09%
Oilb : $25.33 + $0.18. +0.72%
Spy : 252.05  - $3.03. - 1.19%

zq5eeXP.gif

Still laser-beam-like...

All time low (late 2001) was near these levels: $14.27 was the adj. close on 9/26/2001

(in edit, CLOSING levels):

OIH : $14.76 -$0.44, -2.89% : why? given the following...

WTI: $48.17 +$1.57, +3.35%
USO: $10.02 +$0.23, +2.35%
brnt: $57.24 +$1.16, +2.07%
oilb : $25.33 +$0.18, +0.72%

KysaIuW.png

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MOST "Bombed Out" - Candidates  ... update : 10d : OIH vs. RDC, ESV, MDR 

DZfRpBz.gif

MDR / McDermott Int'l ... all-data : $6.48, 33.0% BV-$0.00/ -76.2% off 2018 high: $ 6.44 > $27.21

rmKM0k3.gif

ESV / Ensco Plc -------- ... all-data : $3.68, 19.4% BV-$0.00/ -61.3% off 2018 range: ($ 3.57 > $ 9.51)

jo9SJY1.gif

RDC / Rowan Companies ---... all-data : $ 8.57, 21.4% BV-$0.00 / -58.9% off 2018 range : ( $ 8.49 > $20.87 )

wbGJrlR.gif

A theoretical Options Portfolio (both long & short)

Sym/ Month-Strike : $stock :$Prem, %stkV = $inTM +$TmV: TVas%: #Mo: Tv/Mo:

Long
RDC : April'19-$6.0C: $ 8.25 : $ 2.85, 34.5% = $ 2.25 + $ 0.60 : 07.27%: / 04 : 1.81%:
MDR : May'19-$5.0C: $ 6.65 : $ 2.50, 37.6% = $ 1.65 + $ 0.85 : 12.78%: / 05 : 2.13%:
ESV : June'19-$2.0C: $ 3.58 : $ 1.65, 46.1% = $ 1.58 + $ 0.07 : 01.96%: / 06 : 0.33%:
Short
OIH : Jan.'20- $20.P: $14.90 : $ 5.70, 38.3% = $ 5.10 + $ 0.60 : 04.03%: / 13 : 0.31%:
====

Selling OIH in the money Puts can be used to finance the Calls

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The Former-Oil-God speaks

Legendary Oil Trader Is Bullish On Oil Prices

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 14, 2018

 Andy Hall

Legendary oil trader Andy Hall, who was nicknamed oil ‘God’ for profitably predicting a bull run in oil prices in the past, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday that oil prices would rise from current levels, as they may have hit the bottom after plunging by 30 percent in just two months.

“I think with prices hovering around or a little over $50 a barrel, I think you would have to have a pretty negative outlook on the global economy to believe that prices will continue their downward trajectory,” Hall told Bloomberg TV in an interview, noting that he doesn’t see a global recession soon.

Moreover, a slump in oil prices like the one we’ve seen over the past two months typically slows down supply growth while boosting demand, if there isn’t a global economic slowdown.

Lower prices will undoubtedly impact U.S. production growth, Hall said, but added that the surge in American oil production above expectations has been the biggest surprise this year. 

In the weeks leading up to the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna, Hall was one of the analysts expecting an OPEC-assisted rebound in prices.

“The balance of risk at this point favors some sort of recovery,” Hall said in an interview with Bloomberg in November, two weeks before OPEC and its Russia-led non-OPEC partners decided to cut a total of 1.2 million bpd of oil production for six month beginning in January, with an option to review the agreement in April.

Before the new OPEC+ deal, the stronger U.S. dollar against emerging-market currencies and concerns over the U.S.-China trade war were weighing on demand, while inventories were rising, according to Hall.

Hall, the oil trader who had bet on higher oil prices for more than a decade, continued to hold his bullish view even after the 2014 oil price crash. But in the summer of 2017, he closed his main fund Astenbeck after the fund posted double-digit losses.

> more: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Legendary-Oil-Trader-Is-Bullish-On-Oil-Prices.html

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"The Oil Bells" : an Oil Service Options portfolio

Size: US$ 50,000+ > roughly eqv. to:  3,700 shs of OIH (x$14 = $51,800)

Components: Short Puts of OIH / Long Calls on: RDC, ESV, MDR

charts: 2yr : 6mo Top5 : nxt5 : drlr : oth : bells fr.6/18 O/ 10d Top5 : nxt5 : drlr : oth : bells :

yaFOCpy.gif

bells-10d :

bpxlBLQ.gif

WHY did I do this?

By selling itm puts on OIH...

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The stock market just booked its ugliest Christmas Eve plunge — ever

Dow skids to end down 2.9%; S&P 500 on cusp of bear market

U.S. oil suffers worst 1-day decline in about three months as risk assets get bludgeoned

(WTI -$ $3.06, or 6.7%, to $42.53 )

Oil Service - Bells are Not ringing yet ... MDR etc : OHI-led :

1Yi6s76.gif

The S&P 500 index SPX, -2.71% fell by 2.7% Monday, marking the first session before Christmas that the broad-market benchmark has booked a loss of 1% or greater — ever. That statistic has been confirmed by Dow Jones Market Data, which said the largest decline in the index on the trading day before Christmas was Dec. 23 in 1933.

All three indexes have fallen for four straight sessions. The Nasdaq has skidded 8.7% in that time, while the Dow has lost 8% and the S&P 7.7%. The trio is on track for the ugliest monthly drop since October of 2008, during the heart of the 2008-09 financial crisis. Last week was the worst week of trading since the financial crisis of 2008.

The Nasdaq officially entered bear-market territory on Friday, and has now plunged 23.6% from its record close set Aug. 29. The S&P has slumped 19.8% from its Sept. 20 record close, and the Dow has slid 18.8% from its Oct. 3 record close.

. . . Crude-oil futures on Monday logged their worst one-day drop in about three months and closed at the lowest level in about two years. February West Texas Intermediate CLG9, -6.38% crude oil shed $3.06, or 6.7%, to settle at $42.53 a barrel. That close represents the lowest for WTI since around 2016, and the worst single-session decline for the U.S. oil benchmark since Nov. 23, according to FactSet data. Nagging concerns about global crude output and fears of an economic slowdown internationally have eroded appetite for crude, which has gotten swept up in a broad unraveling of demand for assets perceived as risky.

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Too late for Santa... A big post-Xmas rally in Stocks, lifts my Oil Service stocks by 6-14% in just one day's trading.

OIH etc ... update : Daily from 6.19 :

ZgrHWiU.gif

: Daily from 6.19 :

2B1RDoW.gif

An interesting EXPERIMENTAL PORTFOLIO of Oil Service stocks

I sold a deep in the money PUT on OIH, to finance the purchase of Deep in-the-money Calls on Drillers.

My Out-of-pocket on creating this portfolio was virtually zero,  But It should perfom like a $50K+ Portfolio

My UPSIDE is on the higher beta stocks, while the downside risk I take is on OIH, which may have greater downside protection

Sym./ Price: %change: Opt.Mo.-Stk: $Prem, %stkV = Basis: Gn/Ls: Orig. : Gn/Ls: xQty: Gn/Ls :
Calls: T19.54: $2475
RDC :  $ 9.02: +11.2%: April'19-$6.0C: $3.30* 36.6% = $2.85 +$0.45: $8.25 : +9.33% x25: +1125
MDR : $ 6.78: +6.27%: May'19-$5.0C: $2.60* 38.3% = $2.50 +$0.10: $6.65 : +1.95% x25: +$250
ESV  : $ 3.74: +14.4%: June'19-$2.0C: $1.80, 46.1% = $1.58 +$0.22: $3.58 : +4.45% x50: +1100
Put -: +$5.37: (1665) = $810
OIH  : $14.17: +6.38%: Jan.'20-$20.P : $6.15, 38.3% = $5.70 - $0.45: 14.90 : - 7.89% x37: - 1665
USO- : $ 9.90: +6.57%: 143% : WTI.cr : $46.22: 83.7% Br
Brent $55.24: +8.80% /OILB: $23.77 : 3.90xOIH : 59.6%=OIH/OilB
XLE- : $57.19: +6.22% /brent 103.5% : 4.04xOIH
====
B/ev : $13.95: - 0.22 = +$ 810/3700  x14.17= $52,429

The Overall portfolio is now in profit (+$810), for the first time, and equivalent breakeven on OIH is $13.95

Ratio: OIH to-USO may have reached a major low near 141% : $0.00 / $0.00 = 100%

nmPzop9.png

==

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OIH  : $14.17: +6.38%: Jan.'20-$20.P : $6.15, 38.3% = $5.70 - $0.45: 14.90 : - 7.89% x37: - 1665
USO- : $ 9.90: +6.57%: 143% : WTI.cr : $46.22: 83.7% Br
Brent $55.24: +8.80% /OILB: $23.77 : 3.90xOIH : 59.6%=OIH/OilB
XLE-: $57.19: +6.22% /brent 103.5% : 4.04xOIH

Ratio : XLE / Brent

9PjcmOM.png

Ratio : XLE to OIH

beb1qsb.png

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==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 : 12/28 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1258.1 : 1283.0 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2760.2 : 2416.6 : 2485.7 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2%: 192.1% : 193.7% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $66.11 : $56.11 : $57.05 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $45.59 : $45.33 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27 : $25.19 : $21.14: $18.80: $13.65 : $14.12 :
OI/Wt:  62.1% : 43.1% : ====== : 36.76% : 35.43%: 34.39% : 31.28%: 36.91%: 29.94%: 31.15% :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $3.750 : $3.303 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.670 : $2.680 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 172.13 : 170.97 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.29 : $17.00 : $16.97 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06% : r9.51% : R9.88% : R9.93% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.301 : R3.361 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.95 : $96.39 :
=====
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $20.44 : $20.60 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $28.94 : $29.44 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $24.74 : $24.96 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  R1.730 : R1.801 : R1.731 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $13.74 : $14.42 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 14.700 : 15.440 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $25.13 : $26.04 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 :  12/28 :

Ratio: XLE to-OIH

iErBye6.png

Ratio: OIH to-XLE -- You can BUY OIH without selling XLE.  Maybe sell later, or buy Puts on XLE

0kFhlyN.png

==

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(I explained a TIMING issue in this entry in my Diary):

BUYING NGD/Newgold Feb.$0.50 Calls was an end of the year trade. A bit like the Oil Service stocks*.

(I thought we would see a shift from selling to buying in NGD, because it was :  Biggest Loser of 2018, among Gold Miners: -73%.)

Many were Selling during December to lock in Tax Losses. That pressure ends completely in the new year.

And those who sold earlier may re-enter the stock, locking in a tax loss, and to establish a new position at Lower cost.

Often Works well after a Big Selloff at year-end (... though not always)

===

*Update on Oil Service stocks:

YE'18 : OIH ( $14.03 )  vs. Drillers: RDC ( $8.39 ), MDR ( $6.54 ), ESV ( $3.56).10d /
01/02: $14.37 +2.42% vs. Drillers: $8.74 +4.17%, $7.16 +9.48%, $3.73, +4.78%

- "... poised?", I asked.  Let's see what happens to these stocks the coming days.

4n4GyJU.gif

OIH / Oil Service ... All-Data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / YE'18-update / Last: $14.03 / YrL: $13.13, H: $29.86

EOhHinK.gif

==

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As I expected, the high-beta Drillers are moving up faster than OIH

OIH etc- RDC, MDR, ESV ... update

22DEjpj.gif

This move has benefited...

My OIL SECTOR PORTFOLIO, which is up $7,548 (ignoring TV)

Sym. / Price :  x-Qty: $-Value: Strike : Pmt.: $Surplus -Cost-: Profit :
RDC  : $ 9.50 : x2500= 23,750: $6.C : $15.0K: $ 8,750: $7,275: $1,475
MDR : $ 7.66 : x2500= 19,150: $5.C : $12.5K: $ 6,650: $6,400: $0,250
ESV  :  $ 4.18 : x5000= 20,900: $2.C : $10.0K:  10,900: $8,400: $2,500
Total: =========== > 63,800: ==== : $37.5K: 26,300 : 22,075 $4,225
OIH  : $15.19: x3700= 56,203: 20.C : $74.0K: (17,797) 21,120 $3,323 : $7,548
$4,225/3700: $1.14: $14.05
$3,323/3700: $0.90: $14.29

I value this Portfolio against a Notional 3,700 shares of OIH at b/e $14.29 = $52,873

So +$7,548 is like a 14.3% gain in just a few days - on a portfolio "funded" by excess Buying Power
======

OIH-etc / Daily ... update:

qHNKcxQ.gif

==

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"Like Bats ... out of H3LL"

phnom-sampeau-bat-cave-near-battambang-c

It has been a good start to the year for some stocks  I own and have mentioned prominently here.

BATS ... update :

HMCROFC.gif

The best flying bat so far is...

ESV / Ensco Plc ... update : Last $4.47, up about 35% in less than 10 days

3PRJ6sm.gif

Just a few days ago, I bought June.$2C, paying $1.68.  Now with Intrinsic value (at $4.47) of $2.47, so +47%.

At $5.50, they would have an intrinsic value of $3.5, or 108% above Cost

Meanwhile, MUX would be in the Rats portfolio, ...and may stay there

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4 hours ago, drbubb said:

 

It has been a good start to the year for some stocks  I own and have mentioned prominently 

Meanwhile, MUX would be in the Rats portfolio, ...and may stay there

You are on a roll Dr B. I’d had a nibble of MDR and it’s paid off nicely. It was a bit random, gut instinct to go with them out of all your drillers but I got in near the end on Thursday’s leg up. To be honest I was a little concerned I’d got in on a wave that would ebb away, but no it’s kept rising.

My only slight conundrum is MUX being so unloved. Are the shorts in control there? 

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OIL SECTOR PORTFOLIO, which is Now up $12,289, +24.3%

OIH-etc ... update :

pxrE22l.gif

Sym. / Price :  x-Qty: $-Value: Strike : Pmt.: $Surplus -Cost-: Profit :
RDC  : $10.41: x2500= 26,025: $6.C : $15.0K: $11,025: $7,275: $3,750
MDR : $ 8.15 : x2500= 20,375: $5.C : $12.5K: $ 7,875 :  $6,400: $1,475
ESV  :  $ 4.44 : x5000= 22,200: $2.C : $10.0K: $12,200: $8,400: $3,800
Total: =========== > 68,600: ==== : $37.5K :  31,100 : 22,075 $9,025
OIH  : $15.94: x3700= 58,978: 20.C : $74.0K: (15,022): 21,120 $6,098 : $15,123
$9,025/3700: $2.44: $13.50
$6,098/3700: $1.65: $14.29
IV, J'20-$20Put: ($4.50-4.85): mid$4.68 -IV:$4.06 = TV:$0.62 : ($2,294)
Port.Gain: $15,123 -(TV: $2,294)= $12,829 // Buyback of Put: $17,316

I value this Portfolio against a Notional 3,700 shares of OIH at b/e $14.29 = $52,873
So +$12,289 is like a 24.3% gain, where I simply used "Buying Power" to create this portfolio

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The OIH Puts may be coming into a Buying Window, if OIH rises another $1-2

OIH - Jan.$20 Put ... update : Last $4.35-$4.45 (mid-$4.40) at $16.38, that's IV: $3.62, TV: $0.98

phOkJx8.gif

OIH itself looks like it may run into resistance at perhaps $18.00

OIH ... update : 10d : Last $16.38 (O: 16.32 / H: 16.42 / L: 16.05 )

mPw0ADe.gif

==

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One buying the Other?? ... at a raise bid

Ensco proposes raising stock exchange ratio for Rowan buyout to 2.600 from 2.215

Ensco raises proposed stock exchange ratio for buyout bid for Rowan

Ensco raises proposed stock exchange ratio for buyout bid for Rowan

By Tomi Kilgore

Published: Jan 14, 2019

Shares of Ensco PLC ESV, -0.80% sank 4.8% in premarket trade Monday, after the oil services company said it proposed raising the stock exchange ratio for its buyout bid of Rowan Companies RDC, +7.16% after Ensco's stock tumbled since the deal was announced in October. Rowan's stock rose 0.7% ahead of the open. Under the new proposal, Ensco would exchange 2.600 of its shares for each Rowan share outstanding, up from a previous proposal of 2.215 shares. Based on Friday's closing prices, the new ratio would value Rowan's stock at $11.34 each. That's 8.2% above Friday's closing price for Rowan's stock, but 39.6% below the implied value of the original deal, which was announced ahead of the Oct. 8 open.

 

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Sold RDC: 25x Apr.$6C @ 5.4 = $13,500
Remember, these cost me $7,275 ($2.91), so a 85,6% gain
And were "financed" by the Short sale of OIH Puts

OIH Jan.$20P : $4.35-4.45/ mid$4.40 x3700= $16,280

If I paid $13,500 to buyback those Puts, it would be: $3.65 - near my $3.50 target

 

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Oil Service to slow down, maybe dip? Or is the Dip done; ready to follow UK oil shs higher?

OIH - Jan.2020 $20 Puts - update : $4.15 -4.30: $4.23 OIH at $16.55 > IV: $3.45 / TV: $0.78

9KHOVEp.gif

Two UK Oil shares  ( BP & PFC & PBT ) seem to be leading XON & OIH : chart : 10d ... (+ XLE)

0FVN63s.gif

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Update - on the "Virtue Silo" that I created, using only excess Buying Power

I SOLD $20-Puts on OIH, the Oil service etf, to

BUY Calls on three high-beta components of the OIH, all Oil Drillers, when they were cheap.

My virtual OIL SECTOR PORTFOLIO, is now up $21,495, about 40%

Sym. / Price :  x-Qty: $-Value: Strike : Pmt.: $Surplus -Cost-: Profit :
RDC  :$12.02 : x2500= 30,050 : $6.C : $15.0K: $15,050: $7,275: $7,775 - sold for $6,225 profit
MDR : $ 9.14 : x2500= 22,850 : $5.C : $12.5K: $10,350: $6,400: $3,950
ESV  : $ 4.59 : x5000= 22,950 : $2.C : $10.0K :  12,950:  $8,400: $4,550
Total: =========== > 75,850 : ==== : $37.5K :  38,350 : 22,075 16,275

OIH  : $16.78: x3700= 62,086 : 20.C : $74.0K : (11,914) 21,120 $9,206 : $25,481, but that is overstated

$9,206/3700: $2.49: $14.29
I value this Portfolio against a Notional 3,700 shares of OIH at b/e $14.29 = $52,873
So +$25,481, is like a 48.2% gain in just a few weeks - on a portfolio "funded" by excess Buying Power
BUT,
I need to adjust for Time Value slippage on the OIH puts.
In fact, I have already bought back ALL of the 37x$20 OIH puts for $14,350,
making a profit on OIH Puts of $6,770, rather than the $9,206 shown above.

The overall actual profit is $12,995-taken + $8,500-potential = $21,495, or 40.7%
======

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Really surprised at MDR (and all your OIH portfolio), having bought at an average 7.28, set myself a mental target price of $8.50 and for me I was quite disciplined selling at that level.

Truth is, my decision was more I didn’t expect it to keep galloping on so quickly. Not being greedy it was a good start for my trading year, so happy with the profit; still surprised though.

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I sold my MDR May $5 calls yesterday at $4.35 x 25 = $10,875

A nice profit on MDR ...  $4475 / $6400 = +70% Gain on cost

Now, with only ESV calls remaining...

ESV  : $ 4.46 / Jun $2C : @$2.50 x50ctx are worth = $12,500 -  $8,400 = $4,100

The overall actual profit is $17,470-taken + $4,100-potential = $21,570, or 40.8%

That 41% gain is on the Notional portfolio value.

I never spent any cash, or actually put at risk that amount of money

 

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I am Out... but not Done... with the Oil Sector "split package options trade" (SPOT)

Sold my ESV calls at $2.75 yesterday.

If we see a pullback, I will be looking for a re-entry point in OIH, its components, or other oil-related shares

This has been a successful and profitable experiment

My virtual OIL SECTOR PORTFOLIO, produced a profit of $22,820, 43.2% in about 6 weeks

Sym. / Price :  x-Qty: $-Value: Strike : Pmt.: $Surplus -Cost-: Profit  :
RDC  :$12.87 : x2500= 32,175 : $6.C : $15.0K: $15,050: $7,275: $7,775 - sold @$5.40, $6,225 profit
MDR : $ 9.31 : x2500= 23,275 : $5.C : $12.5K: $10,775: $6,400: $4,375 - sold @$4.35, $4,475 profit
ESV  : $ 4.70 : x5000= 23,500 : $2.C : $10.0K: $13,500:  $8,400: $5,100 - sold @$2.75, $5,350 profit
Total: =========== > 78,950 : ==== : $37.5K :  41,450 : 22,075 19,375

OIH  : $17.45: x3700= 64,565 : 20.C : $74.0K : ($9,435) 21,120: 11,685 : -BBck @$3,88, $6,770 profit

Overall expected profit = $31,060, but that is overstated , because of TV of OIH short
Actual profit, closed out: $22,820
=====

$11,685/3700: $3.16, ($17.45-$3.16): $14.29 notional start-point for OIH: x3700= $52,873

Actual Return on Notional Starting point of OIH: 43.2%

& OIH would have needed to Rise to $14.29 x 143.2% = $20.47, to gain the same

 

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