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DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2018 Trading - v.119

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Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 119th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

GjtfFlk.jpg

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

TheMuellerInvestigationIsFINALLYPayingOf

================

DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2018 Trading - v.119

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

DOJqMhF.gif

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term: tny_au_en_euoz_2.gif

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

L7D6UiL.png

 

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

WVFK3Bz.png

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE :

Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

yTOUF5w.gif

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

WM3iUdC.gif

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

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DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
JUN
29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 99, 100 : 000, 1026

JUL
30: 279.84 - 1.58 00.0M: 15.26 : 21.27 - 0.05 : 115.65 -0..18 0.00M: 1231.5 $70.13 : $94.35 - 0.32 : 119.05 - 0.41/ 06, 104 : 000. 988
31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 04, 108 : 050, 1038

AUG
30: 290.30 -1.18 00.0M: 00.00 : 18.69 - 0.30 : 113.64 -0.56 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $00.00 +0.00 : 121.29 +0.27/
31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 -0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 -0.29/ 00, 096 : 000, 954

SEP
27: 290.69 +0.81 50.7M: 12.41 : 18.43 - 0.08 : 112.05 - 1.00 7.61M: 1187.4 $72.12 : $94.97 +0.73 : 117.58 +0.08/ 04, 77 : 040. 713
28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 04, 81 : 040, 753

Oct
30: 267.77 +3.91 143.M: 23.32 : 19.14 +0.14 : 115.80  - 0.51 7.15M: 1225.3 $66.18 : $97.00 +0.36 : 114.16 -0.57/ 04, 109: 034, 1134
31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 -0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 -0.15 : 113.31 -0.85/ 05, 114: 050, 1184

===
01: 273.51 +2.88 91.1M: 19.34 : 19.57 +0.64 : 116.63 + 1.48 13.1M: 1238.6 $63.69 : $96.37 -0.48 : 113.41 +0.10/ 04, 118: 000, 1230
02: 271.89 -1.62 110.M: 19.51 : 19.63 +0.06 : 116.65 +0.02 8.41M: 1233.3 $63.14 : $96.50 +0.13 : 112.00 -1.41/ 03, 121: 044, 1274
05: 273.39 +1.50 59.1M: 19.96 : 19.56 -0.07 : 116.37 -0.28 5.72M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.35 -0.15 : 112.44 +0.44/ 00, 017: 000, 084
6: 275.12 +1.73 00.0M: 00.00 : 19.40 -0.16 : 116.02 -0.35 0.00M: 1226.3 $62.21 : $96.16 -0.19 : 112.37 -0.07/
7: 281.01 +5.89 89.1M: 16.36 : 19.31 -0.09 : 116.01 -0.01 7.70M: 1228.7 $61.67 : $96.18 +0.02 : 112.52 +0.15/ 00, 030: 000, 192
8: 280.50 -0.51 00.0M: 16.72 : 19.38 +0.07 : 115.86 -0.15 0.00M: 1225.1 $60.67 : $96.63 +0.45 : 112.51 -0.01/ 09, 039: 075, 267
9: 277.76 -2.74 85.7M: 17.36 : 19.04 -0.34 : 114.48 -1.38 13.8M: 1208.6 $60.19 : $96.90 +0.27 : 113.35 +0.84/ 09, 048: 075, 342
12:272.57 -5.19 89.7M: 20.45 : 18.61 -0.43 : 113.66 -0.82 7.21M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.52 +0.62 : 114.09 +0.74/ 00, 063: 000, 470
13: 272.06 -0.51 00.0M: 20.02 : 18.42 =0.19 : 113.70 +0.04 0.00M: 1201.4 $55.69 : $97.99 +0.47 : 114.02 -0.07/ 07, 070: 070, 540
14: 270.20 -1.86 111.M: 21.25 : 18.83 +0.41 : 114.64 +0.94 13.8M: 1210.1 $56.25 : $96.85 -0.14 : 114.09 +0.07/ 00, 076: 085, 625
15: 273.02 +2.82 122.M: 19.98 : 19.09 +0.26 : 114.77 +0.13 8.82M: 1212.0 $56.70 : $97.04 +0.19 : 114.04 -0.03/ 08, 084: 065, 890
16: 273.73 +0.71 127.M: 18.14 : 19.38 +0.29 : 115.62 +0.85 8.58M: 1224.0 $56.70 : $96.47 -0.57 : 114.70 +0.66/
19: 269.10 -4.63 000.M: 20.10 : 19.39 +0.00 : 115.67 +0.05 0.00M: 1225.3 $57.20 : $96.19 -0.28 : 115.02 +0.32/ XX
20: 264.12 -4.98 127.M: 22.48 : 19.30 -0.09 : 115.67 Unch. 8.29M: 1221.2 $53.43 : $96.83 +0.64 : 115.06 +0.04/ 00,
21: 265.02 +0.90 00.0M: 20.80 : 19.81 +0.51 : 115.86 +0.20 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.39 -0.44 : 115.02 -0.04/
22: Holiday
23: 263.25 -1.77 38.7M: 21.52 : 19.36 -0.45 : 115.77 -0.09 3.68M: 1223.2 $50.42 : $96.94 +0.45 : 115.14 +0.12/ 00, 130: 000, 1130
26: 267.50 +4.25 68.9M: 18.90 : 19.26 -0.10 : 115.64 -0.14 3.90M: 1222.4 $51.63 : $97.04 +0.10 : 114.88 -0.26/ 00, 144: 000, 1294
27: 268.40 +0.90 69.6M: 19.02 : 18.87 -0.39 : 114.95 -0.69 8.76M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.37 +0.31 : 115.01 +0.13/ 04, 148: 047, 1341
28: 274.58 +6.18 114.M: 18.49 : 19.34 +0.47 : 115.38 +0.43 13.0M: 1223.6 $50.29 : $96.75 -0.62 : 114.45 -0.56/ 03, 151: 046, 1386
29: 273.98 -0.60 72.3M: 18.79 : 19.17 -0.17 : 115.74 +0.36 6.31M: 1224.1 $51.45 : $96.79 +0.04 : 114.90 +0.45/ 06, 157: 070, 1456
30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 -0.08 : 115.54 -0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 06, 163: 100, 1556

DEC
03: 279.30 +3.65 91.0M: 16.44 : 19.44 +0.35 : 116.41 +0.87 8.45M: 1233.9 $52.95 : $96.84 -0.36 : 115.88 +0.55/ 00, 012: 000, 0031
04: 270.05 - 9.05 156.M: 20.74 : 19.60 +0.16 : 117.12 +0.71 7.15M: 1246.6 $53.25 : $96.96 +0.12 : 117.82 +1.94/ 04, 016: 017, 0048
05: Bush Funeral
06: 269.84 - 0.41 187.M: 21.19 : 19.71 +0.11 : 117.14 +0.02 9.02M: 1243.6 $51.49 : $96.80 -0.16 : 118.19 +0.37/ 00, 025: 000, 0116
07: 263.57 - 6.27 144.M: 23.23 : 20.20 +0.49 : 118.09 +0.95 10.3M: 1252.6 $52.61 : $96.71 -0.09 : 118.41 +0.22/ 03, 028: 054, 0170
10: 264.07 +0.50 145.M: 22.64 : 20.13 - 0.07 : 117.68 -0.41 8.11M: 1249.4 $51.00 : $97.10 +0.39 : 118.90 +0.49/ 10, 038: 000, 0250

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Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

YrGKY4n.gif

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

nyB6fg2.gif

SPX ... 10-yr

3OBqgrF.gif

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

jdfaUBq.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

sWEYfy8.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

rpAk3nN.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

uPTblbm.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

3exBC6r.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

4yeFpcu.gif

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

OdgKj01.gif

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

eavKQ45.gif

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

jQ65ScB.gif

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

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Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update :

5bn3Jgu.gif

Old chart - to Feb.2018

OiR7uum.gif

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

N1Eoth5.gif

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90
Gold-toUSD_zp.png

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:Gold-toUSD.png

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d :

sbRuJRa.gif

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 9/07/2018

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Are we seeing / have we already seen.. Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

image.png

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

S57joQx.gif

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

PxNQSf4.gif

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BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

WnLivxx.gif

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :
SP_500_Bradley_Siderograph.png
===
Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

6bpXv6V.gif

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

wyXnzph.gif

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

fguOGn7.gif

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart : Last, PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

wDu3Hxx.gif

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

VoL3vU9.png

mvzyRJF.png

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WEEKLY Data - Stocks bounce back, as Bitcoins dive again

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/26 :  11/23 :  11/30 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1223.2 : 1220.2 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.64 : 115.54 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 267.50 : 275.65 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2632.5 : 2760.2 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 215.2%: 226.2% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $63.91 : $66.11 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.42 :  $50.93 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-24.26 : R-23.96 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.350 : $4.600 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.760 : $2.790 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 881.00 : 895.00 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 507.25 : 516.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 359.00 : 378.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 179.50 : 181.74 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.16 : $17.29 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: R9.56% : R9.51% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R3.750 : R3.724 : r3.823 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $96.94 : $97.20 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.14 : 115.33 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1223.2 : 1220.2 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.606 : R1.602 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 761.74 : 761.74 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.85 : $15.64 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.36 : $19.09 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $27.27 : $26.59 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.37 : $23.05 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  r1.741 : R1.730 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.42 : $13.32 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.240 : 14.350 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $25.92 : $26.52 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $39.74 : $41.08 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2579.5 : 2588.2 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7340.2 : 7367.9 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.00 : $26.83 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 147.89 : 151.83 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1713 : 0.1758 : 0.1767 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 : $4,285 : $3,979 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :   9/28  :  10/26 :  11/23  : 11/30 :

OIL IS CHEAPER THAN GOLD

Ratio
 XI3OUrj.png

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Dec 2 10:08pm:

A cease fire is better than a trade war, and stocks jumped higher after the United States and China said they would hold off on further tariffs and continue talking about their differences. More

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Gold : $1230+

gold.gif?0.6926577608530164

GLD - Gold etf ... update : Fri.: $115.54 / GBS-Mon.: $115.95 +$1.06

XVVYGvu.gif

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KITCO

OPINION: Is Gold Forming a Bottom, or a Bear Flag? Kitco Commentary

Gold Steady As U.S.-China Trade Truce Weighs On Dollar Reuters

The Most Hated Precious Metal’ Will Finally Rise In The Next Few ...

===

Bearish case: DXY strong, headed to 97 & higher?

The U.S. dollar is in a bull market and continues to receive most of the safe-haven bids gold investors are accustomed to enjoying during global equity weakness. Bullion has remained weak due mostly to the strong dollar and as long as the world’s reserve currency remains well above its rising 50-day moving average, its bull market will remain intact. Moreover, a DXY weekly close above 97 on the Cash Settle Index may be enough to break the critical $1200 support level in gold on a weekly basis. The continued political uncertainty in Europe has yet to entice consistent safe-haven buying in bullion as well. Trading in fed funds futures imply an 83% chance of a hike in December and one more hike in 2019, while the Fed’s dot plot implies three more interest rate hikes next year.

Bull case: The "Right" people are now Bullish

Earlier this week, during a speech at the Economic Club of New York, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell used a softer tone to describe where interest-rate policy is presently, in what could be construed as implying fewer interest-rate hikes to come. Although Powell said nothing to dull expectations for a rate increase when Fed policy makers meet next month, any hint of a shift in policy from tightening to easing during the FOMC speech on December 19th would be very gold friendly.

The set-up in the gold futures market is beginning to resemble the positioning of futures traders in early 2016. This past week, commercial traders went aggressively long and are not far from being net-long, meaning they strongly expect higher prices in the next few months. Meanwhile, managed money speculators are now net short, which is also both unusual and very bullish from a contrarian perspective. The positioning of gold futures provides a massive amount of short covering fuel if the Fed hints of a near-term interest rate pause in December.

Gold prices were steady early on Monday as the dollar weakened on U.S.-China trade truce that revived investor demand for riskier assets.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold inched up 0.1 percent to $1,222.97 per ounce at 0109 GMT.

* U.S. gold futures were up 0.2 percent at $1,228.1 per ounce.

* The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was down about 0.2 percent.

* Asian shares rallied on Monday after U.S. and Chinese leaders brokered a truce in their trade conflict, a relief for the global economic outlook and a tonic for emerging markets.

* China and the United States agreed to halt additional tariffs in a deal that keeps their trade war from escalating as the two sides try again to bridge their differences with fresh talks aimed at reaching an agreement within 90 days.

3

- Silver, which has been “the most hated precious metal” this year, is finally going to rise in the next few months, according to one analyst.

Silver has disappointed many investors this year, with Comex silver trading down 16% year-to-date, Boris Mikanikrezai, precious metals analyst at Metal Bulletin, wrote in a Seeking Alpha post last week.

Mikanikrezai sees silver heading higher in the next few months, but first, prices need to stabilize around the $14 an ounce level.

“The speculative community is still skittish toward silver, hence the lack of fresh buying. But if the current wave of short-covering helps silver prices to stabilize at $14 per oz, longs could come back, thereby extending the speculative normalization process. This will push Comex silver spot prices higher, and ergo, lift the value of the iShares Silver Trust ETF,” he said.

Silver is a great buying opportunity for investors at the moment, the analyst added, citing how cheap the metal is compared to other precious metals.

 

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FX-Gold

2 mo : 3mo +KF : 2018 w.CNY w.SIL - Clearly they move together / / FRES+ 10d : KrFres

Zih03d0.gif

w.SIL

https://i.imgur.com/g3nyPyQ.gif

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Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless MarketWatch

Opinion: Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless

By Atuyla Sarin: Dec 3, 2018

Bitcoin is now entering a death spiral

MW-FY883_bitcoi_20171122110718_ZH.jpg?uuGetty
 
Just one year has passed since bitcoin enthusiasts forecasted that the cryptocurrency would hit a price of $1 million.

But that was then. With the price of bitcoin BTCUSD, -1.20%  having fallen almost 80% from its peak, and now trading well-below the support level of $6,000, everyone is wondering where it goes from here.

The answer is, a swift and painful drop to zero.

In a MarketWatch column I wrote last April, I explained what it would take for bitcoin to become worthless. Bitcoin is getting close to that point. As I argued, once Bitcoin’s price falls below its cost of mining, the incentive to mine will deteriorate, thrusting bitcoin into a death spiral. That is, without the mining activities supporting the ledger that maintains the records of who owns what — bitcoin is, after all, a set of encrypted numbers that cannot establish the ownership of anything — bitcoin will become worthless.

A typical asset has a set of cash flows, and its value is driven by investors’ expectations of those cash flows. Bitcoin has no cash flows. In that respect, it is more like gold, in that its value is driven to some extent by its desirability and potential uses, but mostly by its cost of mining. While there are many estimates of bitcoin’s cost of mining, most suggest it is close to $5,000 per coin. Furthermore, even though traditional commodities like gold require significant investments, with limited technical knowledge and capital, anyone can mine bitcoins. Thus, the price of bitcoin must be close to the fully loaded cost of mining it (meaning you are modestly compensated for your time and capital outlay). So, one would expect the price of bitcoin to fluctuate somewhere around that point.

Moreover, there is one additional complication: Unlike gold, which, probably due to a historical accident, is universally accepted as a store of value, bitcoin is a digital commodity with no such universal acceptance as a store of value. While the original buyers and miners of bitcoin were true believers in the paradigm shift they thought it promised, and were willing to make the necessary investments for future gains, the more recent buyers and miners have been run-of-the-mill, greed-driven investors.

. . .  Mining at a cost higher than the cost at which you can sell in the futures market destroys value. So, any rational investor — even one who strongly believes the price of bitcoin will rebound — has no incentive to mine if the cost of mining is higher than the future price and is better off buying in the futures market. And unlike gold, which can retain its value even if mining activity stops, bitcoin can have no value absent the mining activity that maintains the ledger of who owns it. Absent the mining activity, bitcoin is a just a set of encrypted numbers with no value.

Death spiral

So, it appears bitcoin is now entering a death spiral: If the price continues to drop and the cost of mining does not fall correspondingly (the cost of mining will algorithmically decrease, but not necessarily to same extent as the decline in prices), bitcoin will quickly go to zero.

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GOLD in Euros

L7D6UiL.png

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KITCO Articles

Gold, Silver Gain On Demand Hopes, Lower USD ... Kitco News

Money Managers Increase Net Bearish Positioning In Gold Kitco News

McGlone highlighted a unique similarity between gold’s set-up and that of natural gas, which surged in November on supply concerns in the U.S.

“Much like natural gas earlier this year, gold has the drivers in place to rally from its compressed range. Increasing inflation and debt levels are positive companions, as is gold's divergent strength to the dollar,” he said.

“The narrowest 24-month Bollinger bands for the longest period in 16 years indicate the metal's upside,” the strategist said.

. . . Changes in monetary policy could really affect stock markets and increase volatility in equities in 2019, this according to Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares.
“...I think that really increase the likelihood of a stock market sell-off coming into next year. So, we’ve already got a strong dollar as you know at the moment, I think that an increase in rates at this level, it’s difficult to see how much further the dollar can go from here,” Rhind told Kitco News.
Rhind added that the economy is already showing signs of weakness and any further disruptions could bring volatility to equities.He noted that gold is not correlated to the equities market as much as it is negatively correlated on the dollar.

. . . Risk appetite was back in full force to start the trading week...

The U.S. dollar index is lower today as secondary world currencies were boosted on the U.S.-China truce. That’s a bullish outside market force for the metals markets. There are notions a U.S.-China trade agreement would lessen demand for the safe-haven greenback and make the secondary currencies look more attractive.

The U.S.-China trade cease-fire gave traders and investors a double-barrel shot of upbeat news, following last week’s surprisingly dovish comments coming from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. In other news, the OPEC oil cartel meeting is getting under way in Vienna, Austria. Reports said Qatar plans to pull out of the cartel in January. Oil prices were also lifted today in part on comments from Russian and Saudi Arabian officials that they want to extend production cuts.

. . . Large speculators increased their net bearish positioning in gold during the most recent reporting week for data compiled by the Commodity Trading Commission but trimmed their bearishness in silver slightly.

gold_bars.gifDuring the week-long period to Nov. 27 covered by the report, Comex February gold fell $7.10 to $1,219.90 an ounce, while March silver lost 16.8 cents to $14.221.

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Can Gold Beat The December Curse?

GBrIOX5x

One commodity analyst says he is waiting to see if the gold market can beat its December curse as the market is starting the month on a strong note, trading just below the critical resistance level of $1,240 an ounce.

In the last three years, December has not been a kind month for gold, with the precious metal consistently hitting its yearly lows during the month. However, Andrew Hecht, creator of the Hecht Commodity Report, said in a commentary on Seeking Alpha that there are signs that this year could be different.

He noted that since hitting its lows in August, the gold market has performed relatively well, even in the face of a strong U.S. dollar. February gold futures last traded at $1,236.10 an ounce, up 0.83% on the day.

“Gold has had every reason to move to the downside over the past few weeks, but it remains at the $1225 level,” he said. The sign of strength in an environment that should be causing weakness is a good sign for the price path of the yellow metal.”

Despite some growing optimism, Hecht said that the precious metal isn’t completely out of the woods yet. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision scheduled for December 19 remains the biggest risk and opportunity for gold his month, he added.

“The Fed has done an excellent job preparing the market for rate hikes, and the next hike that will take the short-term rate to 2.25-2.50% is likely baked into all markets,” he said.

. . . “The latest comments from Chairman Powell last week indicated he may be softening his hawkish approach to monetary policy,” said Hecht.

In its last economic projections, released in September, the U.S. central bank signaled that it sees three rate hikes next year and one rate hike in 2020.

“A retreat from their tightening could light a bullish fuse under the gold market which is holding these days with one eye on the central bank and the other on the dollar,” said Hecht.

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Clif High - Who Runs The World?

The Rothschilds are multi-trillionaires, and a member of the family may be the single Key decision-maker

Dick thinks that Cryptos "will be the next big thing"

"many countries are working on their own cryptos"

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Fed's Beige Book Confirms US Economy Is Slowing

beige%20book%20tariff%20vs%20slow.jpg?h=

The Fed's Beige Book has a clear message for the economy: it's slowing down... some 43 times.

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Canadian Dollar Gold etf has shown a nice Rally

GLD - at $117.12, is 5.45% off Low of Year ($111.06), 33% to H-$129.52, +$18.46
MNT - at C$17.40, is 8.34% off Low of Year (C$16.06), 57% to H-C$18.46, +C$2.40

MNT.t / Royal Canadian Mint - Canadian Gold Reserves ... update :

LhZI77g.gif

GLD : 5years : at C$17.40, is 8.34% off Low of Year (C$16.06),

0Eo421M.gif

GLD -vs.MNT : update :

2IWUvCN.gif

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OUTLOOK 2019 _ This was a GOOD Interview

"To make Big Money, you have to see the Cycles" (a new one is coming)

Gold Will Rally 22% In 2019, Outperform Everything / Kitco Video

http://stream2.kitco.com/18_12_05_TUCKER_LIFERAY.mp4

2019 will see the start of a new bull cycle for gold and push the metal up to $1,500 an ounce, said E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty & Streaming.
“To make big money in this market, you have to see the cycles. Nothing changes. We’ve had three big cycles in gold since 2000 and we’re about to have another one,” Tucker told Kitco News.
Tucker said that the next cycle peak could reach $1,900 an ounce, but that won’t happen next year.
“We’re calling for $1,500 next year, that’s a 22% increase in the price of gold, it’ll be one of the best performing markets in a very, very volatile year for equities,” he said.

"THERE IS NO DOGMA!"

#2 : Get Ready For The “Real World,” Says Frank Holmes

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THE FUTURE Revealed?  On the Cover

The ''Illuminati'' Have A SECRET MESSAGE For Us In 2019

Why are so many powerful people "into numerology"?

(Is He against the Leftist Religion?  Or FOR it?):

Sunday Special: Pastor John MacArthur

Hmm. He talks about "submission to authority"

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GOLD has a good solid BID now @$1243.60 +$6.60... may be breaking out of the Downtrend... at long Last!

gold.gif?0.6926577608530164

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities - Gold etf traded in London ... update :

QtPTqT0.gif

The "3-year cycle" may have bottomed a bit early

idx24_usd_en_2.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif

Watching DXY too ... update : Key Support is $96.50 - Last: $96.77

clqk5v3.gif

FXFX

2 mo : 3mo +KF : 2018 w.SIL - Clearly they move together / / FRES+ 10d : KrFres

Chk8A7r.gif

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