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DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2018 Trading - v.119

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chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTC all data: 8yr: 4yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d 10d 5d / SLV-lv

=====

NOTHING SELLS better than Fear

But humans are good at overcoming their Fears

Rick Rule - The Future is Hopeless, but it Need Not be Serious

"I Learned... You will EITHER be a CONTRARIAN... Or a Victim"

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ACTION - At Last!

I am finally getting some decent action in a few of my small gold-related holdings

It could be an interesting day!

GDXJ - etc... 10days : preMkt :

5F0jlCe.gif

==

Would like to see some up moves in GCM.t and MUX where I have larger positions

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Interesting?  Yes. Instead... a smack-down !

In GLD, GDX, .. stocks

(Hopes were dashed that the Fed would say they were Done raising rates.)

GDXJ - etc ... update : +ugld : $28.04 -$1.41, -4.79% v.25.9M

A11sZes.gif

GDXJ -4.79% v.25.9M : GDX -5.41% v.95.2M : HUI :

8qDTysZ.gif

The smackdown in GLD-gold was down only 0.61% : update : Last: $117.43 - 0.72

7t8GGgb.gif

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FED MOVES +0.25%, to 2.50% FF rate

The Fed "needs more ammunition... 250bp is not enough". 400-500bp needed?

Danielle DiMartino Booth - $250 Trillion Global Debt Will Not Be Forgiven Willingly

What the Fed’s rate hike will mean for home buyers and consumers with credit-card debt MarketWatch

Powell party pooper: Here are the worst-performing stocks after the Fed wrecks the market 

Powell offers markets an olive branch but gets rejected

Why it may be time to shine for emerging-market currencies in 2019

===

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it hiked the benchmark federal funds rate 25 basis points and indicated that it plans to raise rates again in 2019. An increase to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend money to each other, can lead to an uptick in mortgage rates.

Ahead of the Fed's rate hike announcement, the interest rate on a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage fell 12 basis points from the previous week to 4.63%. While that’s the lowest mortgage rates have been since September, they are still higher than a year ago. And by this time next year, experts predict rates will be even higher.

Realtor.com estimated that the rate for a 30-year mortgage will reach 5.50% by the end of 2019, while real-estate firm Zillow estimated that it could hit 5.80% in a year’s time. Mortgage liquidity provider Fannie Mae was more moderate, predicting that rates will only increase to 5% by then.

Either way, homebuyers can expect to pay more in interest if they buy next year. And rising mortgage rates will cause ripple effects throughout the market, said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at real-estate data firm Attom Data Solutions.

“What’s driving the slowdown in price appreciation and the rise in inventory is not so much that inventory is being created, but that demand is decreasing,” he said. “This is an extremely mortgage-rate sensitive housing market.”

Realtor.com only expects the national median home price to increase 2.2% next year and for sales to drop 2%. Zillow was a bit more upbeat, expecting home prices to rise 3.8%.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 2.25% to 2.50%.

Read: Text of FOMC statement for December

During a press conference, Powell indicated the Fed was likely to raise rates twice in 2019.

. . . Matus said the Fed shifted its dot plot “lower a lot.” The central bank now sees only two rate hikes in 2019 and one more through 2021.

Stocks plunged after the Fed meeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.49%   hit a new 52-week low.

“He tried to meet the market halfway and clearly the market is upset he didn’t go further,” Matus said.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter-point, the fourth hike of the year, but signaled a slower pace in 2019.

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Tony Caldaro 😄

The OEW 2525 pivot, which was only added last week, was tested two times this week then broke today.

The next OEW pivot is at 2479. Around that level Minor C equals Minor A. Strong support? Positive divergences continue to appear on the hourly and weekly charts, with oversold daily and monthly RSIs. With options expiration up next, the volatility is certainly to continue. Still a day traders markets!

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

LONG TERM: downtrend most probable

CHARTS: https://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

(post from TC's blog):

banking-index-repeating-2007-crisis-patt
Thanks Chris Kimble

https://www.iris.xyz/

https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=e4a27753-fb0e-4e99-880f-9e0b2d62863e&mime=pdf&co=raymondjames&id=jeffrey.saut@raymondjames.com&source=mail
Thanks Raymond James

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US Dollar, last 12 months

DXY ... 12 mos : ST :

8K7aQG0.gif

EUR ... 12 mos : actually , USD in EURs : ST :

e1cMOLy.gif

CNY ... 12 mos : ST :

teqZjo7.gif

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OIH / Oil Service, another Down day

zq5eeXP.gif

Still laser-beam-like...

All time low (late 2001) was near these levels: $14.27 was the adj. close on 9/26/2001

(in edit, CLOSING levels):

OIH : $14.76 -$0.44, -2.89% : why? given the following...

WTI: $48.17 +$1.57, +3.35%
USO: $10.02 +$0.23, +2.35%
brnt: $57.24 +$1.16, +2.07%
oilb : $25.33 +$0.18, +0.72%

KysaIuW.png

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From Glen Neely, at NEOWAVE : a POWERFUL 1-2 week rally ... then a 50% drop over 3-5 years?

cs@neowave.com / 19 Dec at 23:14

Two days ago, I took a HUGE public risk and issued this S&P warning along with the attached "1-SP daily" chart...
     After today's wash-out, all NEoWave structural criteria is in place to create a POWERFUL 1-2 week rally (see attached chart). Thereafter, the recovery may slow down but the S&P should continue to advance into mid January. 

In the top right corner of that chart, you can see the rally predicted to come (red-dashed line). At the end of that projected rally, notice I warned of a "Possible END to Bull Market" in early 2019. Also notice that the "Possible END..." was plotted to occur at a LOWER HIGH.

Today's "scary" sell-off (on Dec 29, 2018) pushed the S&P a little lower than expected but it does not alter the overall forecast in Monday's update. What it does do is change the LABELING in that chart. Instead of the S&P rallying to end wave-(D) at a lower high in early 2019, we can now confirm wave-(D) ended at 2018's high. So, the predicted red-dashed rally will become wave-b of a new bear market, instead. 

HOW COME I DIDN'T ORIGINALLY PLACE WAVE-(D) AT 2018's HIGH?  The MOST important NEoWave innovation, which differentiates NEoWave from orthodox Elliott Wave, is the concept of market "self-confirmation." This is where the start of a new trend MUST move further and faster than the last counter-trend move of the prior pattern. UNTIL TODAY (Dec 19, 2018), the S&P had FAILED to achieve confirmation, which is why I could not objectively place wave-(D) at 2018's high. With today's action, the S&P has FINALLY dropped further and faster than any decline since wave-(C)'s termination - see attached 2-SP monthly (LT) chart. As a result, we can now objectively confirm wave-(D) ended at 2018's high.

Chart 3-SP monthly provides clearer evidence of this year's drop falling further and faster than the prior largest decline that occurred in August 2015. Notice how much faster the drop is now than in 2015. THAT is what constitutes NEoWave Confirmation. If you have a copy of Mastering Elliott Wave, refer to Chapter 6 for more details on this concept. 

Chart 4-SP weekly gives a more detailed perspective on the progress of the new bear market. It shows the coming bounce as wave-b instead of the future conclusion of wave-(D) at a lower high, which is what I assumed would occur until today's drop finally confirmed wave-(D) was over. 

Now that we have behavioral proof wave-(D) is over, a more detailed, long-term prediction can be made. See the attached 5-SP 6month chart, which maps out the S&P's expected price action into the end of the next decade. It projects a 3-5 year bear market that will force the S&P to lose about 50% of its current value! 

If you'd like to keep up with the progress of this new, multi-year BEAR MARKET, please click the below link to subscribe to the NEoWave S&P Forecasting service. By the way, if you're interested in GOLD, Wave structure in that market has cleared up significantly this month, allowing me to more precisely predict that market than I've been able to do for a few years.

NEoWave FORECASTING 
https://www.neowave.com/market-forecasting.asp

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely

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GOODBYE 23,000: STOCKS CONTINUE ROUT...
DOW -464...
WORST MONTH IN DECADE...
WIRE: Recession near?

SPX ... update : Last: 2,467 - 39.54, 1.58%

/ Maybe this time... 2,480 in O'night trading

sJCZ4av.gif

(from Tony C's Blog, a comment):

Jordi G says:

Hi Tony, as you know SP printed today a low at 2441, and your target for this bear market is 2400, so in a couple of months is very close of your target. How you interpret this? Are we near to end the bear market? or maybe the roadmap ( bear market to 2400, and then a bullish wave 3) is wrong?

Good evening all. As a follow up to my post earlier this afternoon, I suggested the possibility that SPX might have completed wave 3 of 5 intra-day. From that low, equities rallied into the close but more importantly, /ES continues to rally after the close. That observation plus the futures trading at +5 this evening, broke the first “small,” 15 minute short. Next higher target for /ES is 2516. But that is just the next target higher…./ES can continue to trading higher.

The point I am trying to make is that these data points lends support to SPX trading in wave 4 of Just ballpark numbers….should wave 4 work out to a 120 point, counter trend rally, that would take /ES to approx 2664. At that point, I would 3 would look for a final leg down after Christmas.

Tomorrow is options expiration…maxim pain is currently trading at 2665. I would not be surprised if /ES trades close to that level intraday, tomorrow. As alway, we’ll see.

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Brent Oil -  Low of $27.10 x 2 = $54.20 - today's Low was $54.28

caQDh99.png

==

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Gold in EURO - now holding over EUR 1,100

Short Term: t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : gold_1d_o_EUR_z.png?0.08749488187703625 :

Gold-in-EUR at/near the Top of a Down-Channel

DfR7qCP.png

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WATCHING these closely again today...  having sold half of my NHK for an approx 25% gain

GDXJ - etc ... : +ugld : 10d :

nGWyItt.gif

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GOLD in Sterling - also at a possible breakout point, just over GBP 1,000

ZEtyTEi.png

 

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FB / Facebook & GOOG / Alphabet ... since 1.2016 : FB: $125 / GOOG: $980 = r-12.76% (prev: 13.65%)

0JRM7fU.gif

Dustify Target #1?
PAPER: FACEBOOK FINISHED?

Is Facebook finished? 'We're not far from Zuckerberg getting subpoenaed', privacy expert says

'We need to get him and other Facebook executives under oath and ask them questions they cannot dodge,' one professor says

Even for a company as serially scandalous as Facebook, it's been a bad week for the social network. Separate investigations revealed that Facebook gave more than 150 firms access to people's private messages, while also making it impossible for users to avoid location-based ads.

After months of fallout from the Cambridge Analytica scandal, US prosecutors also finally got around to filing a lawsuit against Facebook for its data sharing practices.

Individually, none of these would likely be enough to bring Facebook down, but some experts believe that, collectively, this could signal the end for the internet behemoth.

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WEEKLY Data - RISK OFF still! : Stocks down huge -??%, while Gold rose +XX%

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1258.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.54 : 118.72 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 275.65 : 240.70 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2760.2 : 2416.6 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2%: 192.1% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $66.11 : $56.11 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $45.59 :
OIH-: $33.35 : $26.05: -11.9% : $23.87 : $26.27 : $25.19 : $21.14: $18.80: $13.65 :
OI/Wt:  62.1% : 43.1% : ====== : 36.76% : 35.43%: 34.39% : 31.28%: 36.91%: 29.94%:
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $3.750 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.670 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 895.00 : 897.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 516.00 : 514.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 378.00 : 378.50 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 172.13 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.29 : $17.00 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06% : r9.51% : R9.88% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.301 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.95 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.33 : 120.72 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1258.1 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.602 : R1.628 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 761.74 : 772.67 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.64 : $18.91 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $20.44 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $28.94 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $24.74 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  R1.730 : R1.801 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $13.74 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 14.700 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $25.13 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $41.08 : $38.52 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2588.2 : 2516.3 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7367.9 : 7479.7 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.83 : $22.79 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 151.83 : 128.37 :
F/iwm 17.24%: 17.84%: =====  : 18.16% : 16.24%: 16.36% : 17.13%: 17.67%: 17.75% :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 :  $3,979 : $4,035 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/21 :

OIH vs- CRB and XLE ... update :

WKx93Gt.gif

DBA vs. SLV ... update :

lbkhGw5.gif

==

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MUX vs GLD (Gold etf) ... from 2.20.16 : MUX.vsMNT (CAD Gold etf) :

LMhaEkv.gif

/ 2 /

Ratio : MUX to-GLD
VT41hUc.png

==

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CHART

2i4HSVC.png

T-Note

H14OVeN.png

T-NOTE Wave Structure CLEARER - More PREDICTABLE

Early this year, T-NOTE Wave structure started clearing up and becoming FAR more predictable!

HERE'S THE PROOF...
Chart 1 (January 1, 2018) - the first day of this year, I issued a very bearish outlook [using 6-monthly charts) on Notes and warned of rising interest rates. See the red-dashed line on that chart.

Chart 2 (March 4, 2018) - zooming in on monthly Wave structure, you can see a more-detailed run-down of the larger chart's original project and more precise targeting for wave-c. 

Chart 3 (September 2, 2018) - at this juncture, it was confirmed that wave-c had ended and the d-wave of a NEoWave Diametric formation had begun. Notice the last small green rectangle - that is projecting the time and price action for wave-d. 

Chart 4 (December 2, 2018) - the time projection for wave-d remained exactly the same as months before but its upside price target was tightened. 

At this juncture, wave-d should soon be ending, which will be followed by more downside in Notes and a slow progression of the 10-year cash yield toward 4.00% rates. 

After 2-3 years of unpredictability in the 4 traditional markets NEoWave has followed for 35 years (the S&P, Gold, Notes and Euro), they are ALL becoming predictable again. In the next few weeks, I'll give a run down on how GOLD is also becoming predictable again. 

( By EMAIL )
NEOWAVE FORECASTING

https://www.neowave.com/market-forecasting.asp

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HEY SMILE. CHUCK!  YOU ARE GOING TO OWN THIS !
5P7Mvdh.jpg

Despite what Trump said, Schumer will get blamed for the Government Shutdown.

$5 Billion is too small an amount for him to be playing the beat-Trump game.

Shame on you, Cheese E Chuck Schumer !

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USD in EUR rallied back.  But will it now "give it up" ?

USD in EUR .. update : 3-years :

qTU8Wsk.gif

: 3-years :

eNBGomI.gif

Great set-up for another Peak in the USD

USD in Sterling also looks like a potential high : 3-years :

u8a0S4o.gif

CABLE : GBP in USD : all-data :

2eRKHWP.gif

If the USD is peaking, GOLD may have a great run in 2019

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Sorry Jeff: The Treasury Short Squeeze Hasn't Even Begun Yet

gundlach%20teaser%204_0.jpg?h=b728d024&i

While Gundlach was right on bonds undergoing one of the sharpest moves higher in recent years, the Bond King was wrong about one key aspect of the move: there has been virtually no squeezing of shorts.

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Clif High "comes out" on ALIEN Abductions & "Bugs"

"over 1 million abductions per annum... globally"

Clif High - Major Anouncement, Changes on the Earth Like You've Never Seen

The Military & Deep state are fighting these abductions
5G is a "strategic weapon against the space aliens"

===

Possible confirmation is here:PP
 "THIS PLANET WILL BE THEIRS."
David Jacobs on the Richard Dolan Show. Dec. 10, 2018.

x

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ECB / Euro Chocolate Buyer posted

"The entire developed world is now actively "taxing to death" Chinese flight capital.

Australia is the latest. Peter from the Property Club has several videos about the dramatic tax increases occurring in AUS/QsLand.

For non resident owners 3pct of the value of the homes will be taxed. This is the highest in the world. This will cause a fall in prices..."

> here Bubble Debate (in PH)

To which I responded:

TAXES are one of the two ultimate Certainties in Life

And not only are they being raised in Oz,  Also in NYC, thanks to Trump's tax reforms

One year in, tax law faces test with filing season...

Exodus of NYC's endangered middle class...

Where are they moving to?

Philadelphia could be one place. Could be 1 - 1 1/2 hours away by train or car.

Prices still seem to be rising there

 

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