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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2018 Trading - v.119

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

 

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At Risk... of Lower Profits

HK:11 / Hang Seng Bank... All-data3yrs : 5yrs : 10 yrs : $177.30

Iz8boPt.gif

. All-data :

z

Both Goldman and Citi Say Hong Kong Banks at Risk After Central Bank Money Printing

Hong Kong’s banks are staring at a tough year for business, marred by lower demand for loans and a peak in local property prices.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut the lenders’ loan-growth estimates and target prices on Tuesday. Citigroup Inc. said the banks’ shares may drop as much as 15 percent in 2019.

“A cyclical slowdown in loan growth has been happening recently as rates started to rise and macro slowed this year,” Goldman analysts Gurpreet Singh Sahi and Ethan Liu said in the note. “Whether this slowdown follows the recent historical one-to-two years ‘shallow’ pattern or becomes longer and deeper would depend on how the current ‘financial’ cycle in Hong Kong unfolds.”

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MUX at or near a Buy point maybe?

MUX -to-GDXJ Ratio : 6.14%... MUX ($1.74 -0.01) / GDXJ ($28.33 -0.04)

hVn4F57.png

==

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SPX Long Term

Dez3YgS.png

SHComp - Shanghai Composite

t3qkBX2.png

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Wave A... of A-B-C Down may be nearly done - then Big Wave 3 up?

Tony Caldaro's E-Wave comment:

LONG TERM: downtrend probable

It seems every time the market has made a low during this downtrend, with positive hourly/daily divergences and a weekly oversold RSI, we expected the downtrend to have ended. The market then rallied for a period of time, only to roll over and make lower lows soon thereafter. Such was nearly the case again on Monday at the recent SPX 2583 low. The medium term Intermediate wave A downtrend continues.

SPXwkly.png?w=640&h=485

Long term not much has changed. Five Intermediate waves up from SPX 1810 to SPX 2941. Int. iii subdivided into five Minor waves. All corrections, alternated with their corresponding wave degrees. An EW normality that has been nearly absent in recent years. With Major wave 1 completed, a Major wave 2 bear market is probably underway. (To be followed by Wave 3 UP,  when ir ends - and the Chinese market's downtrend may end first, see panel above.)

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues

Short Term

. . . Technically a small rally, then decline could setup another hourly positive divergence. The weekly RSI is already sitting at a positive divergence. Maybe the FED will be the catalyst to put in the final low, and get Int. wave B underway. Short term support is at the 2594 and 2575 pivots, with resistance at the 2632 and 2656 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week oversold. Best to your options expiration trading!

(Note; Wave B up, would be followed by Wave C down)

 

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TWO for my favorite Thinkers, sharing a stage in a great conversation:

Sir Roger Scruton/Dr. Jordan B. Peterson: Apprehending the Transcendent >

JBP:
The claim that there is nothing but Power, is the justification for seeking Power
The willful failure to distinguish between Competence & Tyranny.
(It is easier to claim to be a victim than to retool to succeed.)

Sir R:
The risk of the male predator is there.
But our society seems to have lost the ability to CELEBRATE THE NORMAL,
that most men and women are not predators

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SPX wave A may end near my tentative Target of 2525-ish (but not gteed)

SPX ... 5-yrs : 2yrW : 2yrAlt : 2yr- Norm : 6mo : Last: $2,599.95 -50.59, -1.91%

2Ra9GC1.gif

: 2yrAlt :

NuJo6nQ.gif

: 2yr- Norm :

rMBglZK.gif

==

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Hedging an SDS position.

SDS is a 2X Bear etf on the S&P500 - last: $40.60

NS0yP46.gif

====
Idx: 12/31/17: 06/30/18: H.-10/03 : 12/14/18 vs."High"
SPX: $2,673.6:   2,718.4  :   2,925.5  :   2,599.9 - 11.13%
VIX : %11.04  :  % 16.09  :   % 11.61  :   %21.63  + 86.3 %
SDS: $ 41.05  :  $ 32.22  :    $ 32.86  :   $ 40.60 + 23.55%
===

(I spoke about this hedging concept recently with "D" at a social event.  He's long SDS.)

If you expect SDS to "range trade" for several months...

/ more /

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NEEDS UPDATE

WEEKLY Data - RISK OFF! : Stocks down -4.60%, while Gold rise +2.66%

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/07  :  12/14 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1252.6 : 1241.4 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 115.54 : 118.09 : 117.06 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 275.65 : 263.57 : 260.47 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 22760.2 : 2633.1 : 2599.9 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 226.2% : 210.2% : 209.4% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $66.11 : $64.07 : $62.09 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $50.93 : $52.61 : $51.20 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-23.96 : r-23.81 : r-24.25 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $4.600 : $4.488 : $3.827 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.790 : $2.760 : $2.760 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 895.00 : 916.75 : 900.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 516.00 : 531.25 : 530.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 378.00 : 385.50 : 384.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 181.74 : 184.15 : 180.31 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.29 : $17.41 : $17.33 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ======:  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: r9.51% : R9.45% : R9.61% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479 : R3.750 : r3.823 : R3.680 : R3.582 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $97.20 : $96.48 : $97.42 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 115.33 : 118.41 : 118.48 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1220.2 : 1252.6 : 1241.4 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.602 : R1.649 : R1.626 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 761.74 : 759.73 : 763.56 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27: +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $15.64 : $16.55 : $18.94 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.09 : $20.20 : $20.12 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $26.59 : $28.04 : $27.77 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $23.05 : $23.88 : $24.60 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : r1.765 : R1.731 :  R1.730 : R1.739 : R1.795 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.32 : $13.73 : $13.70 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.350 : 14.700 : 14.640 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $26.52 : $26.23 : $25.61 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $41.08 : $39.88 : $39.83 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2588.2 : 2605.9 : 2593.7 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7367.9 : 7461.1 : 7524.4 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.83 : $25.11 : $24.24 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 151.83 : 144.02 : 140.61 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1713 : 0.1767 : 0.1744 : 0.1724 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 :  $3,979 : $3,402 : $3??
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 :  10/26 :  11/30 :  12/07  :  12/14 :

Copper has bottomed... maybe ?

Sw91wGG.png

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OIH is getting close to a possible BUY window, I reckon

OIH / VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF ... all-data / Last: $15.66 -0.67, -4.10% Yr.Low: $15.63

rwekKtU.gif

Ratio : OIH - to WTI Crude

image.png

==

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KITCO articles - Gold Waiting for a Fed Pause ?

OUTLOOK 2019 Gold In 2019: Fed Pausing Could Mean Everything For Gold

===

VIDEO : 2019 is shaping up to be a good year for gold if macroeconomic factors line up in place, said Erik Norland, senior economist at the CME.
“If we see the labor market continuing to tighten, with unemployment rates falling even further, if we see some upside pressure on inflation, that could be extremely bullish for gold,” Norland told Kitco News.

"soft data on housing etc... But the overall yield curve has 75 bp positive slope... a slowdown?"

"upside pressure on inflation could be extreme bullish for gold... weaker USD would also be bullish for gold"

. . . according to our research -- Bank of America appears to be the most bullish on gold. The bank sees gold prices pushing to $1,400 an ounce next year, stating that investors looking for a commodity to be bullish on should look at gold.

The most bearish so far appears to be BNP Paribas as the bank sees gold prices falling below $1,200 next year.

. . . The biggest obstacle for gold prices this year was the strong U.S. dollar, which has taken safe-haven attention away from the precious metals.

“The stars haven’t really been aligned for gold this year. For most of the year, you had this ongoing U.S. dollar strength playing through. We’ve had bouts of volatility, which I quite like for gold, but the U.S. dollar hasn’t sold off,” Pepperston head of research Chris Weston told Kitco News.

But, the good news for gold is that things look very different next year, analysts pointed out, commenting that the U.S. dollar has likely peaked in 2018 and the yellow metal is expected to trade north of the critical $1,300-an-ounce resistance level next year.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth - $250 Trillion Global Debt Will Not Be Forgiven Willingly, Sharp Decline Early in 2019

Former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth says the $250 trillion global debt is going to be a painful and messy problem to resolve. What about a giant global debt forgiveness such as a debt jubilee? DiMartino Booth warns, “I am not so sure something like a debt jubilee, where all countries are supposed to hold hands and sing kumbaya, I don’t know that scenario necessarily unfolds. . . . The debt will not be forgiven willingly.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder of Quillintelligence.com.

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On 12/16/2018 at 12:07 PM, drbubb said:

SPX wave A may end near my tentative Target of 2525-ish (but not gteed)

SPX ... 5-yrs : 2yrW : 2yrAlt : 2yr- Norm : 6mo : Last: $2,599.95 -50.59, -1.91%

: 2yr- Norm :

rMBglZK.gif

Low, Monday: 2,530.54

SPX ... 10-yrs :
9S1H6rx.gif

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

nVzEZ3p.gif

 

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SPX close: 2,545.94  -54.01 - 2.08%

Tony C said in his weekend wrap-up

" We still think the SPX 2577 level should hold. If not SPX 2550. "

( Guest Posts from his Blog )

DupOADUU0AAqRkZ.jpg

The S&P 500 set a new trading low for 2018 today.

Amazingly, here is every year ever (since inception in 1923) that SPX set a low point for the year in December:
𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟴
𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬
𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟯
𝟭𝟵𝟰𝟭
𝟭𝟵𝟯𝟭
𝟭𝟵𝟯𝟬

In case you're not much of a history buff, those years are:
NOW
TECH CRASH
ENERGY CRASH
YEAR WE ENTERED WW2
GREAT DEPRESSION
GREAT DEPRESSION

Noah J says:

I said this about a month ago and stand by it. Tony will be re-writing his longterm, medium, and short term counts in the near future. That’s why you can never solely rely on EW/OEW. Lots of living through the rear-view mirror.

lunker1 says:

SPX hit Feb low 2533
hit 2525 pivot
SPX & DOW +D on 60min & Weekly
Double +D Weekly NAZ
NAZ new low but all FAANGs except AAPL showing RS with a higher low

bounce worthy territory

Serious bear here folks,
Big boy pants.

spx-6yesrs.jpg?w=640

Only significant support is several hundred SPX handles lower.
If it breaks here, “ABC U later”

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WTI closed at $xx

USO / US Oil etf ... 10-yrs : Last: $10.45 -0.37:-3.42% / target: $10 maybe

DLc8XKJ.gif

=====

Hello Tony,

At what price do you see WTI crude oil bottoming before a move to mid 80s?

Please advice. Thank you

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BONDS : who is crazy?

Low could already be in place at 111... OR ?

TLT : 10-yrs : last: 119.17 , 2.69% / TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%) / TYX: 3.114% (YrH: 3.455%)

WhzksV6.gif

TNX: 2.857% (YrH: 3.248%)

uMz5BSP.gif

Hey Phil
Did you hear Gundlach laughingly says he tells his friends that 10Treas could hit 6%, and they all tell him he’s crazy?

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POPULIST REVOLUTION w/ Russell Brand vs Candace Owens,  Will it go Left or Right?

Very worthwhile interview from Russell (once again.)

HEATED, thought-provoking, & FUN all at the same time

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EUR versus Gold and Gold shares

chart :

svFEs5n.gif

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OIL - a bottom may be near

4wZGGKH.png

High: $76.90
Last: $46.60
Ratio 60.60%

Strong Support: $42-42.50, if we get there

 

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I feel vindicated for cutting my loss on oil.

In happier news, I'm glad I bought this dip in crypto (Ethereum specifically). There's a real risk the next bull run has started - I put the odds at 30-40%.

Also, gold looks like its ready to continue its raging bull market, FOMC could be the catalyst.

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I might wait a few more days on the Cryptos - since year-end Tax Selling may still be underway

I did take a position in OIH/ Oil Service, that I will describe later

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Gold

GLD ... update :

yvKWbPG.gif

mwHnq3H.gif

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OIH, Oil Sevice etf - Are we now in a long Term Low buying window?

Rationale: made record Low price, Oil is at low of year, & tax selling is driving weak oil svc. shares lower

OIH / Oil Service ... all-data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mos - 10d /Last: $15.20 -0.31, -2.00% YrL: $15.11

DwKpJwX.gif

Brent Oil

EZDk3xv.png

OIH share values have SLID relative to Brent Oil

wXir4jb.png

OIH vs OILB (Brent etf) ... all-data : 10-yr : 5yr : 3yr - 10d / Last: $15.20 / $25.15 = R-60.4%

yp3M3XJ.gif

In the above chart (since late 2005), it is very RARE to see OIH under 62% of OILB, as now

Sym. Last$: %WTI :$-Chg. %Chg. R-WTI: yield: Year-L: Year-H: -Vs.H-:
brnt $56.08: 100.% -$2.58, -4.40%  100.%: 0.00% $55.58: $86.74: -35.3%
oilb  $25.15: 44.8% -$1.12, -4.26%  96.8%: 0.00% $25.15: $37.98: -33.8%
WTI: $46.60: 83.1% -$3.60, -7.17% 163.%: 0.00% $46.11: $76.90: -39.4%:
USO: $ 9.79: 17.4% -$0.66, -6.32% 144.%:  0.00% $  9.73: $16.24: -39.7%
===
OIH: $15.20: 27.1% -$0.31, -2.00% 45.5%: 4.46% $15.11: $29.87: -49.1%
SLB: $37.84: 67.5% -$1.21, -3.10% 70.5%: 5.29% $37.67: $80.35: -52.9%
HAL: $28.98: 51.7% -$0.11, -0.38% 08.6%: 2.48% $28.17: $57.86: -49.9%
HP -: $54.45: 97.1% -$1.92, -3.41% 77.5%: 5.22% $53.66: $75.10: -27.5%
bhge:  21.22: 37.8% -$0.40, -1.85% 42.0%: 3.39% $20.81: $37.76: -43.8%
TS -:  $21.79: 38.9% -$0.04, -0.18% 04.1%: 2.39% $21.66: $40.64: -46.4%
===

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