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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2018 Trading - v.118

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Thanks DrB. A laser beam is a helpful analogy - or in other words, don't catch the falling knife.

It's especially dangerous in these current times due to the ongoing monetary tightening.

===

(added by DrB): 

TOP ... : Chan-GE : MP : PP : Charts2 Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

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5 hours ago, hector said:

One thing I learned quickly about oil ETFs is that they don't match the performance of oil over longer time frames. Apparently due to contango when rolling over swaps/futures.

Check out LSIL too, spotted contango there years ago, you can only ever trade it in mini swings unless a full on bull period.

SSiL will,be similar but it’s had a better return in recent times.

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A Resurgent Crispin Odey: "We Are At The Start Of A Profound, 25 Year Bear Market"

Crispin-Odey-collage.jpg

(many years ago, Odey asset mgmt offered me a job.  But it was subject to me "meeting his wife, and her agreeing"

That meeting never happened, because a big trade  in Consols began to unwind, and they decided to end their hiring plans.

I would up getting a nice lunch out of it, so it wasn't a total waste of time. haha. Just a big disappointment.)

"Populism in the west has a long way to go. QE has undermined savings and now populism will undermine the price mechanism. We are at the start of a 25 year cycle so get used to it."

odey%20exposure%20nov%202018.jpg?itok=Ho

Two years after British billionaire Crispin Odey decided it was time to not only "fight the Fed" but launched a brutal and bloody crusade against central banks around the world, in which he bet virtually everything on a "violent unwind" of the QE bubble, loading up on gold and shorting every government bond he could find, something strange is happening: Odey appears to be winning.

In some ways, it has been a pyrrhic victory: managing billions in assets several years ago, Odey Asset Management has shrunk substantially in the past 2 years, and as of October 2018 AUM had dropped to $828 million, while the OEI MAC fund is down to just $250 million.

More importantly, Odey was not wiped out and is still managing money after an abysmal stretch in which the hedge funds lost 21.3% in 2015, 49% in 2016 and 22.3% in 2017. Fast forward to 2018, when Odey is enjoying his best performance in a decade, up 49.8% YTD, his second best year on record after the 67.7% return in 2007.

. . .

Odey also briefly recaps his cataclysmic take on China...

As Mark Latham described it ‘China looks like the Netherlands in the 16th century. A large trade surplus is leveraged 20x into state directed investment, which lasts so long as the current A/C surplus lasts. China looks likely to record a deficit next year.’

... before, surprisingly, ended on a few optimistic, if not outright bullish notes:

It is becoming difficult to find places to hide in this market. Argentina looks increasingly attractive. Their populism began in 1929 and thanks to the IMF may be coming to an end. On such gossamer threads is our optimism built.

Finally, for those asking, here are Odey's top ten holdings as of the end last month:

top%20ten%20holdings%20oct%202018.jpg?it

... his non-USD currency exposure - let's just say he is not a fan of the pound...

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3 hours ago, hector said:

Thanks DrB. A laser beam is a helpful analogy - or in other words, don't catch the falling knife.

It's especially dangerous in these current times due to the ongoing monetary tightening.

Right

laserpointerataliens_top.jpg

A laser differs from other sources of light in that it emits light coherently, spatially and temporally. Spatial coherence allows a laser to be focused to a tight spot, enabling applications such as laser cutting and lithography. Spatial coherence also allows a laser beam to stay narrow over great distances (collimation),

To me, the laser beam shows both urgency and discipline... and therefore a plan... like a determined plan to sell (or buy)

===

Wait for the knife to hit the table top and bounce, then you know where the table (support) might be

"We Are Not There Yet": Prior Bear Markets Suggest Even More Pain For Oil

wti%2011.23.jpg?itok=AkW_OnML

"the decline will not end until we see a low in equity markets, and as we have noted in recent reports, we're not there yet." - BMO

Unfortunately for oil bulls, in his latest note published earlier today, Visch has some bad news, highlighting that during the last two cyclical bear markets in 2011 and 2015, oil only stopped falling when stocks bottomed. And as the ongoing price action in the S&P shows, the drop in stocks is hardly over.

 

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Brilliant humanitarian or money-grubbing huckster? You be the judge!

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[With the European financial system already extremely WEAK it was just announced that the FBI, SEC and FinCEN are now investigating a $150B money laundering operation out of the World’s largest bank derivative holder….DEUTSCHE BANK!
 
Hang on tight.
 
ALERT: Deutsche Bank’s NEW $150B Whistleblower Scandal to Destroy EVERYTHING!! (Bix Weir)
https://youtu.be/0zA6UM4Eeds
 

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RATIOS

GDX -to GLD

anpQP4X.png

GDXJ -to GLD

rJXwufd.png

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On 11/20/2018 at 2:40 AM, hector said:

Looks like a down day on SPX looks like luck ran out..?

(no disrespect intended)

Yup!

STUFFING: Stocks post worst Thanksgiving week decline since 2011...

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Linda Moulton Howe Discloses Huge Whistleblower Testimonies That Will Change Everything

 

Magnetic anomaly found  in Antarctica . Unearthly structures, with heiroglyphs, match what was found on the Moon.  Cydonia on Mars has some matching glyphs as well.

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Update on the Comparison with Prior Notable Declines

DJA_Jesse-400x400.png

by Jesse The next weeks will be interesting. This is just the Dow Industrial Average, such as it is today. We would have to see confirmation in the less narrow … Read more

/ 2 /

One After The Other, Individual Stocks Are Getting Crushed…. Why I Think This Sell-Off Is Just One Step In Methodical Unwind Of Stock Prices

US-SP500-index-2018-11-23_12-months-400x

Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter It was an ugly Monday and Tuesday followed by a Wednesday that at first look like a real bounce but ended with the indices giving up … Read more

 

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History Says FANG Feast Is Finished

A comparison to the dotcom bubble suggests the FANG stocks may have topped.

3 years ago, on the day before Thanksgiving, we published a blog piece that remains one of our most popular posts ever. Its subject was the FANG stocks, i.e., Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet). At the time, FANG was all the rage, much more so than even today if you can believe it. A composite of the 4 stocks had just achieved a 500% rally in just 3 years. Our post suggested, based on one historical analog, that it was possible the FANG run may actually have further to go — much further.

That suggestion was based on a comparison to another group of former high-flyers that we introduced in the post. Looking to the dotcom bubble, we created another composite, this one of 4 of the leading stocks during the dotcom era: Cisco, Intel, Microsoft and Qualcomm. We labeled this group CIMQ (not as catchy, I know).

3 years ago

tumblr_inline_pingi0ZHnG1sq14jh_500.jpg

Now

tumblr_inline_pingitboTD1sq14jh_500.jpg

 

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Resemblance between two Monsters? 

(If so, maybe it is a Reptilian thing)

EoIdcqR.jpg

/ just joking ! /

> MORE on Nazca Mummies :

 

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Freezing Temperatures Could Heat Up Natural Gas Prices

Here in San Antonio, the temperature hit a bone-chilling low of 27 degrees last Wednesday, breaking a 102-year-old record for mid-November. An out-of-state visitor, Cornerstone Macro’s Head of Portfolio Insights Stephen Gregory, speculated that the Central Texas temperature, ordinarily mild this time of year, was down more than three standard deviations. I didn’t make the calculation, but my guess would be about the same.

With temperatures so low, it’s perhaps no surprise that natural gas had one of its best days in years. Its price popped almost 18 percent last Wednesday—before falling nearly as much on Thursday. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that natural gas storage in the lower 48 states was below the five-year average as of October 31. This, combined with a stronger-than-expected start to winter, prompted traders to push prices to a four-year high of $4.84 per million British thermal units (MBtu). Meanwhile, natural gas futures trading hit an all-time daily volume record of 1.2 million contracts, according to CME Group.
 

image: http://www.stockhouse.com/getattachment/d5291854-0438-427f-b02b-8002288e0910/f2.jpg

f2.jpg

Freezing temperatures increase demand for heating, much of which is provided by natural gas. In January of this year, when temperatures fell below the average in many parts of the U.S., demand reached a single-day record of 150.7 billion cubic feet, according to the EIA. I can’t say we’ll beat this record again in the coming months, but forecasts for more freezing weather this Thanksgiving week and beyond should support additional moves to the upside.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2018/11/19/freezing-temperatures-could-heat-up-natural-gas-prices#K3krLwZaR8bI5vDs.99

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MUX.t to MNT.t (C$-Gold etf) is down to 14.2%. but above 13.5% Low

- Rally to 15.5% coming?

C$17.08 x15.5%= C$2.65 x0.755= $2.00
C$17.08 x18.0%= C$3.07 x0.755= $2.30

T69Cvxn.png

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"No Long term future for Foreigners in China... the way the Politics are now"

China's Golden Age is OVER!

China under Xi is cracking down... on everything

/ 2 /

"Family here comes way, way ahead of personal relationships"

Are Chinese Women Heartless?

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Wow! (The mess in North America explained):
Ben Shapiro is really On-the-Mark with this speech
Ben Shapiro Invades Canada! | UBC Free Speech Club Talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EymDXH-u8Y0

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Bitcoin Plunges to $3,738; Whole Crypto Scam Melts Down, Hedge Funds Stuck

Bitcoin plunged to $3,738 at the moment. Down nearly 40% from two weeks ago, and down 81% from peak-mania of $20,078 on December 17, 2017. It’s back where it had first been on August 12, 2017. It looks like a magnificent bubble that is imploding, but “bubble” is a misnomer; it’s a magnificent scam, where people paid a lot of money – many billions of dollars – to get an essentially useless digital entity whose price then dissolved into where it had come from.

This chart via CoinMarketCap shows the drama of bitcoin’s market cap surge to $333 billion on December 17, 2017 and the collapse to $64.9 billion now:

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EUR, Oil & Precious metals shares :  fr.July '17 : 10d :

EUR, PM's still in channel,  Oil shares have joined it

wyAbm2R.gif

Ratio: SIL -toXLE -Log

srQs9Cw.png

==

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6628376-6429561-A_migrant_family_part_of

STAGED FAKE NEWS?  Same threesome were taken from different angles

What responsible parent would take her children to such a place?

Why is she moving towards the fumes, holding her kids back?

 

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WTI Crude - Nice bounce yesterday.  But looks set to go lower still

WTIC : +2.40%

8hmvOPN.png

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KITCO

VIDEO NEWS: Bitcoin's Downfall Could Mean Renewed Confidence In Miners

KC Chang, senior economist at IHS Markit, said that his firm continues to see gold prices trading between $1,200 and $1,300 an ounce in 2019, with prices hitting the top of the range in the later part of the year.  Chang added that the market is missing one key ingredient that would send prices through $1,300: inflation.

“Inflation expectations will remain well anchored next year,” he said. “If gold is going to break its range, inflation needs to rise well above 3%.”

Although tame inflation won’t be enough to drive gold prices out of their range, Chang said that there is enough global financial instability to keep a safe-haven bid in gold through 2019.

In a recent report, IHS economists warned that growing volatility is the latest threat to what they see as weak global economic activity in 2019.

“The recent surge in financial volatility—a de-facto tightening of financial conditions—is an unwelcome addition to these threats to global growth,” the economists said. “Even without a full-blown bear market, the combined effects of policy uncertainty and large financial gyrations are hurting business sentiment and capital spending.”

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WEEKLY Data - Needs update
 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/26 :  11/02 :  11/09 :  11/23 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 : 1208.6 : 1223.2 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 116.65 : 114.48 : 115.64 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 271.89 : 277.76 : 267.50 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2723.1 : 2781.0 : 2632.56
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 220.8%: 230.1% : 215.2% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74: $66.48 : $67.56: $68.50 : $63.91 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $63.14 : $60.19 : $50.42 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-19.53 : r-20.08 : r-24.26 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $3.280 : $3.720 : $4.350 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.810 : $2.680 : $2.760 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 887.75 : 886.75 : 881.00 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 508.75 : 502.00 : 507.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 371.25 : 369.75 : 359.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 192.30 : 188.45 : 179.50 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.77 : $17.31 : $17.16 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: r9.24% : r9.19% : R9.56% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R3.750 : R3.802 : R3.957 : R3.724 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $96.50 : $96.90 : $96.94 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 112.00 : 113.35 : 115.14 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 : 1208.6 : 1223.2 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.624 : R1.61E : R1.606 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 759.06 : 751.0E : 761.74 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $17.15 : $16.28 : $15.85 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.63 : $19.04 : $19.36 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $28.06 : $27.13 : $27.27 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $24.11 : $23.35 : $23.37 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.765 : R1.731 :  r1.740 : r1.753 : r1.741 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.86 : $13.32 : $13.42 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.760 : 14.140 : 14.240 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $24.27 : $24.44 : $25.92 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $40.82 : $39.80 : $39.74 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2676.5 : 2598.9 : 2579.5 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7140.3 : 6968.8 : 7340.2 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.38 : $27.12 : $26.00 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 154.00 : 154.08 : 147.89 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1713 : 0.1713 : 0.1760 : 0.1758 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 : $6,322 : $5,570 : $4,285 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :  9/28  :  10/26 :  11/02  :  11/09 :  11/23 :

 

SPX -to Gold Ratio

https://i.imgur.com/MLStMHG.png

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SPX to Gold Ratio

MLStMHG.png

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DXY / US Dollar headed to likely resistance near 98?

DXY ... update : $97.37 - hod: $97.50

Ja13Zrg.gif

Gold in EUR - resistance at Eur.1,085-90 ?

tny_au_en_euoz_2.gif

MiU3XP5.png

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