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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2018 Trading - v.117

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv

==========================================

(on Sept.19th - pg.3 of my SEP DIARY, I wrote): THIS IS...

 "A very logical & Classic Set-up for a Bottom in Gold stocks" - IT WAS !

GDX/ VanEck Vectors Gold Miners  ... update : $18.43 +0.11 +0.60%, GDXJ: $27.46, SIL: $24.12, /SLV: $13.31= R1.81

ZzotVjo.gif

NOW: TURNING Higher? Downtrend reversed?

EUR & Gold ets ... update : w/SIL & SLV : flipped :

rB1aHeY.gif

: flipped :

ND6H80D.gif

hk10-etc-5yr : Oddly. SLV/ Silver seems to correlate with HK10/Hang Lung, as well as it does with GLD/ Gold

I8oCB8r.gif

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That is possible.

We certainly are overdue on a good strong short-covering rally now

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Hong Kong Property Agent's Window

PUqAfSJ.jpg

Note Discounts!
Harbour Green-- :  995/1050:-5.23% (/482=$20,643psf),
ImperialCullinan: 1400/1550:-9.68% (/524=$26,718psf)
The Long Beach: 1140 (/550= hk$20,727psf)
HKD$ 20,000psf: x10.73 x6.90 = PHP 976.1k per ssm

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Silver: SIL vs. SLV ... update : w/GDXJ :

LvxnIdH.gif

GLD vs SIL ... update :

itpFiwS.gif

==

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Three Stock Indices & SPY Put Pricing

(added on Wed., in edit:

Dow drops 250 points as volatile trading continues...

IWM / Russell-2000 vs SPY ... 3mos : 10d :

818H9YR.gif

==

Timeline
DD: -SPY- + chg. : Vol.- : -VIX- / InTM: Nov.5: Nov.9: ratio :.5itm: Nv9-.5 : as-%X: Days: sqr.T: %/sT*
01: 291.73 +1.01 56.1M: 12.00/ - 1.73: $2.30:
02: 291.56 - 0.17 43.8M: 12.05/ - 1.56: $2.20: $2.90: 75.9%: -0.78: $3.68: 1.27% : 38d :
03: 291.72 +0.16 56.5M: 11.61/ - 1.72: $2.28: $2.85: 80.0%: -1.72: $3.71: 1.28% : 37d : .318: 10.1%
04: 289.44 - 2.28 100.M: 14.22/ $0.56: $3.49: $4.10: 85.0%: +0.28: $3.82: 1.32% : 36d :
05: 287.82 - 1.62 00.0M: 14.82/ $2.09: $4.30: $5.20: 82.6%: +1.05: $4.15: 1.43% : 35d :
08: 287.82 Unch. 87.3M: 15.69/ $2.09: $4.12: $4.70: 87.7%: +1.05: $3.65: 1.26% : 32d : .296: 10.6%
09: 287.40 - 0.42 67.5M: 15.96/ $2.60: $4.36: $4.94: 88.3%: +1.30: $3.64: 1.26% : 31d : .291: 10.8%
10: 278.30 - 9.10 185.M: 23.08/ 11.70: 13.15: 13.18: 90.0%: +5.85: $0.00: 0.00% : 30d :
11: 272.17 - 6.13 254.M: 24.98/ 17.83: 17.80: 17.80: 100.%: +8.92: $0.00: 0.00% : 29d :
12: 275.95 +3.78 165.M: 21.31/ 14.05: 14.25: 14.40: 99.0%: +7.20: $0.00: 0.00% : 28d :
15: 274.40 -1.55 91.9M: 21.30/ 15.60:
16: 280.40 +6.00 101.M: 17.62/ $9.60: $9.41: $9.54: 98.6%: +4.80: $0.00: 0.00% : 24d :
17: 280.45 +0.05 99.3M: 17.70/
18: 276.40 - 4.05 123.M: 20.06/
19: 276.25 - 0.15 121.M: 19.89/

=========
*%/sT (09): 1.26% /.291= 4.33 x 2.5= 10.8% (/15.96= 67.8%)

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Tony C's E-wave comment

spxwkly1.png?w=640&h=485

With the SPX/DOW joining the NDX/NAZ in confirmed downtrends, we can now count five waves up from early-2016. This suggests, as we have been noting the technical deterioration, that the Major wave 1 bull market ended at the recent highs. We are now expecting a shallow 15% to 20% bear market lasting several months into next year. Bear markets are often quite volatile. And a rally back to SPX 2900 at some point would not be a surprise. After the expected Major wave 2 bear market ends, the Primary III secular bull market will resume.

MEDIUM TERM: downtrend

> https://caldaro.wordpress.com/

SPX TARGETS---
2941 x 85%: SPX 2,500
2941 x 80%: SPX 2,350

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Brooks Agnew, Ph.D. - The Rise of Socialism in American and Other Historical Facts

 

/ 2 /

Brooks Agnew | Hollow Earth Updates, Secret Sciences, & Darpa

 

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SPY ... update :

xJLKigV.gif

SIL /Silver shares, SLV /Silver & GDXJ ... update

sVFqKL8.gif

 

Expect Higher Gold Prices For The Rest Of The Year — Analyst Kitco News

These Forces Could Push Gold Above $1,250 - Martin ... Kitco Video News

Dow Dives Sharply On Rates Fears, Tech Shares Sink Nasdaq The Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 324 points, or 1.3%, to 25,382.37, the S&P 500 declined 1.4%, and the Nasdaq was down 2.1%. The declines today and yesterday mainly wiped the advances made on Tuesday. Tech stocks like Apple Inc. (AAPL - Get Report) , Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN - Get Report) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL - Get Report) fell between 2.3% to 3.5%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond was at 3.2%. The Dow, which has fallen in eight of the past 11 trading sessions, is trading about where it was back on January 10. Gold for December delivery rose 0.1% to $1,228.20 an ounce.

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FaceGoogle set to test key support level

FBgoog ... update

G1ZeTdg.gif

==

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NEOWAVE : Big Bear Market... to start in 2019

(I have received this email from Glenn Neely, Neowave)

TIME TO INVEST IN THE NEOWAVE EQUITY FUND

Without doubt, 2018 has been the BEST year for NEoWave in a decade!  Our success has been the result of extremely high market predictability (which occurs near the end of major Wave patterns) AND our expansion into all major U.S. markets (instead of just the 4 we used to trade). Furthermore, to enhance returns, we now write options premium against Long positions (which allows us to reduce risk and increase income during volatile or less-trendy market conditions) and buy Puts to protect profitable positions. 

Because of these major improvements in the Fund's investment opportunitites and strategies, I'm SO confident in our future success that - next month - I'm ADDING $300,000 (from my IRA) to my NEoWave Equity Fund account. 

If you're already an investor, this is a great time to INCREASE your stake. If you're not part of the Fund, now is the time to act - before the S&P begins its final mania phase. Based on clear long-term Wave structure, the next 3-4 year bear market should begin in early 2019 and begin with the largest, fastest decline in stocks we've seen since 2007!

Capital PROTECTION will be the name-of-the-game in 2019.

For more information,
contact Magelan (with NEoWave) or Christine O'Neill (with Financial Solutions Accounting)

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.

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STRONG Friday Close

Small co Miner/Explorer Bells... ready to ring again

Some bellwethers I am watching ... update :

kCZ5LXj.gif

GDX ... update : Last: $20.01

7hlsM47.gif

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JOBS, Not MOBS

Exclusive — Scott Adams Predicts ‘Greatest Turnout by Republicans, Maybe Ever’ in Midterms

Scott-with-Dilbert-Best-640x480.jpg

SANTA MONICA, California — Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams looks thoughtful in in the lobby of a beachfront hotel on a sunny Thursday afternoon as he tells me that the phrase “jobs not mobs,” which he suggested on Twitter six days before, would be catchy — though he adds that Republicans had not yet used it.

Literally minutes later, President Donald Trump tells a rally in Montana: “Democrats produce mobs. Republicans produce jobs.” The president tweets soon afterwards: “#JobsNotMobs.”

Win Bigly is not just a review of the 2016 presidential election, but an argument for a new way of looking at the world, through the “persuasion” filter.

Adams predicted in August 2015 that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination for president, based on his analysis of Trump’s persuasion skills. He also suggested that Trump had a chance of defeating Hillary Clinton.

At the time, few others agreed, but Adams was correct — and has made several other successful predictions since. His Twitter feed and his morning Periscopes have become essential reading and viewing — and are evidently followed closely by the White House.

 

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Looking at SPY movements & Put Pricing, #3

IWM / Russell-2000 vs SPY ... 3mos : 10d :

AKz8bYo.gif

SPY ... 10-days :

KOYR23m.gif

9yiFaMr.gif

(Change over one week):

SPY@290.Nov.Puts - FRI. Oct.12th
=====: ------------ Close- /Open: Low > High: ( -VIX- )
SPY---: ------------ 275.95 +3.78- 272.37>277.09 (21.31%)
SPY: 290p ITM  14.05/ ------- : 12.91> 17.63
====: Close, b-offer: mid./Open : Low > High : Vol.--- : Symbol Code-------
Nv5: 13.83-14.37 14.10/ 15.46:15.46>15.46 : 0,012 : SPYW05183290000
Nv9: 13.97-14.45 14.21/ 14.35:14.01>16.50 : 0,049 : SPYW09183290000
PCT---: 99% - 99%: 99% /  -NA- :  -NA- > -NA-  :

SPY@290.Nov.Puts - Fri. Oct.19th
=====: ------------ Close- /Open: Low > High: ( -VIX- )
SPY---: ------------ 276.25 -0.15- 275.47>279.30 (19.89%)
SPY--: 290p ITM: 13.75/------- : 10.60> 14.53
==== : Close, b-offer: mid./Open : Low > High : Vol.--- : Symbol Code-------
Nov5: 13.74-14.20 13.97/ 13.50:10.97>13.50 : 0,060 : SPYW05183290000
Nov9: 13.81-14.22 14.01/ 11.38:11.38>14.00 : 0,011 : SPYW09183290000
PCT--- : 99% : -99% : 99% / -NA- :  -NA-  > -NA- :
J285: 12.93-13.03 12.98/ 11.50:11.03>12.67 : 0,274 : SPYM18193285000
PCT--- : 94% : -92% : 93% /
=============

Timeline
DD: -SPY- + chg. : Vol.- : -VIX- / InTM: Nov.5: Nov.9: ratio :.5itm: Nv9-.5 : as-%X: Days: sqr.T: %/sT*
01: 291.73 +1.01 56.1M: 12.00/ - 1.73: $2.30:
02: 291.56 - 0.17 43.8M: 12.05/ - 1.56: $2.20: $2.90: 75.9%: -0.78: $3.68: 1.27% : 38d :
03: 291.72 +0.16 56.5M: 11.61/ - 1.72: $2.28: $2.85: 80.0%: -1.72: $3.71: 1.28% : 37d : .318: 10.1%
04: 289.44 - 2.28 100.M: 14.22/ $0.56: $3.49: $4.10: 85.0%: +0.28: $3.82: 1.32% : 36d :
05: 287.82 - 1.62 00.0M: 14.82/ $2.09: $4.30: $5.20: 82.6%: +1.05: $4.15: 1.43% : 35d :
08: 287.82 Unch. 87.3M: 15.69/ $2.09: $4.12: $4.70: 87.7%: +1.05: $3.65: 1.26% : 32d : .296: 10.6%
09: 287.40 - 0.42 67.5M: 15.96/ $2.60: $4.36: $4.94: 88.3%: +1.30: $3.64: 1.26% : 31d : .291: 10.8%
10: 278.30 - 9.10 185.M: 23.08/ 11.70: 13.15: 13.18: 90.0%: +5.85: $0.00: 0.00% : 30d :
11: 272.17 - 6.13 254.M: 24.98/ 17.83: 17.80: 17.80: 100.%: +8.92: $0.00: 0.00% : 29d :
12: 275.95 +3.78 165.M: 21.31/ 14.05: 14.25: 14.40: 99.0%: +7.20: $0.00: 0.00% : 28d :
15: 274.40 - 1.55 91.9M: 21.30/ 15.60:
16: 280.40 +6.00 101.M: 17.62/ $9.60: $9.41: $9.54: 98.6%: +4.80: $0.00: 0.00% : 24d :
17: 280.45 +0.05 99.3M: 17.70/ $9.55:
18: 276.40 - 4.05 123.M: 20.06/ 13.60:
19: 276.25 - 0.15 121.M: 19.89/ 13.75: 13.97: 14.01: 99.7% : --------- $0.00: 0.00% : 21d :

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WEEKLY Data

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/05 :  10/12 :  10/19 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1205.6 : 1222.8 : 1228.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 113.90 : 115.23 : 116.01 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 287.82 : 272.95 : 276.25 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2885.6 : 2767.1 : 2767.8 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 239.3%: 226.4% : 225.3% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $77.16: $73.00: $71.53 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $74.34 : $71.34 : $69.28 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-16.22 : r-17.13 : r-17.74 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.140 : $3.160 : $3.250 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.760 : $2.800 : $2.780 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 869.00 : 867.50 : 856.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 521.00 : 517.25 : 514.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : -0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 368.25 : 373.75 : 367.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 199.04 : 197.94 : 197.18 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.35 : $17.55 : $17.54 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   8.99% :  8.66% :  8.71% :   8.87% :  8.90% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R4.450 : R4.160 : R4.080 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $95.60 : $95.23 : $95.64 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 113.04 : 114.47 : 113.71 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1205.6 : 1222.8 : 1228.1 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r-1.651: r-1.642 : r1.647 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 730.17 : 744.64 : 745.82
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $17.05 : $17.38 : $17.41 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $18.65 : $19.73 : $20.01 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $27.62 : $29.30 : $29.61 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.93 : $24.79 : $25.06 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.765 : R1.740 : R1.804: R1.824 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.75 : $13.74 : $13.74 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.650 : 14.640 : 14.650 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.86 : $22.89 : $21.58 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $40.84 : $40.29 : $39.67 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56%: 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2821.4 : 2606.9 : 2550.5 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7078.2 : 7004.8 : 7151.5 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $28.00 : $26.43 : $26.67 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 162.16 : 153.60 : 153.36 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1727 : 0.1721 : 0.1 ???
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,547 : $6,224 : $6,440?
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :   9/28 :  10/05 :  10/12 :  10/19 :

Ratio : SPX -toGold ... Rolled over?

f8KbGIt.png

Inflation Watch - Gold may have bottomed with DBA

GBS/Gold, Oil shares, EUR, DBA/Agri ... update :

72guPL4.gif

==

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BONDS testing bottom of the Long Term Upchannel

TLT / etf for TBonds ... update / TLT: 113.70, TNX:3.20-%

HnEWir9.gif

TLT-etc -vs- Gold & Silver etf ... update -on 530wk support / GLD: $116.01, SLV: $13.74

ibVKEst.gif

Investments shifting out of Bonds... and into Gold : 1.02

K6rKsPJ.png

TYX - 30yr+ Rates ... update : 3.40%

5KCZfAN.gif

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Bellwether for US Property - still sliding

PHM / Pulte Corp... update :

aXs6Lbs.gif

KBH / KB Homes ... update :

dWc67vv.gif

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