drbubb Posted October 1, 2018 Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 PESO - PHP Price History PHP : 11 Sep.2018 onwards : update : 10d : psei : $cny Pcny / Last: PHP 54.08 at Oct.1st, after 54.40 high Historical - from 9.11 to: 10.17.18-P53.8 : to 11.07.18 ... Last: P52.9 PHP : 2008-2017 (ends Feb.2018, because of data glinch, in middle of that month) PHP: 2000-2018 : update : The Philippine peso, from 1950 to 2009 A 60-year history of the Philippine peso packed into one happy graph: What we have here is a chart showing the historical exchange rate of the Philippine Peso against the US Dollar from 1950 to 2009. (Data from 1950 to 1997 from Penn World Tables; Data from 1997 onwards from Oanda, using exchange rates on January 1 of each year) It's just really weird that I haven't seen a graph like this available anywhere else on the internet, because there's so much that can be learned from it. Look at how all the significant movements in the graph can be traced to events in Philippine history (which is, looking back at it, composed almost entirely of bad news): 1961: President Diosdado Macapagal allows the peso to float on the free currency exchange market, unpegging it from the US dollar to stimulate economic development. Its value sinks from P2 to P3.7 to the dollar. 1970: I can only assume this is due to the First Quarter Storm, where a series of heavy demonstrations and protests and marches take their toll on the country. The value of the peso slips from P4 to P6 to the dollar. 1983: Ninoy Aquino assassinated, and Marcos' shit hits the fan. The country rapidly deteriorates, culminating in the EDSA Revolution. Value of the peso dives from P8 to 20 to the dollar over a few years. 1989: A series of ugly coup attempts threatens the Aquino administration, including a bloodbath in January 1989. Peso descends from P21 to P27 to the dollar over two years. 1997: The Asian Financial Crisis occurs, and I can't understand it no matter how many times I check Wikipedia, but the peso crashes from P26 to P41 to the dollar in a single frickin' year. 2000: Economic mismanagement and political instability during the Estrada administration, plus charges or corruption leading to an impeachment trial. Peso nosedives from P40 to P50 to the dollar. And finally there's 2005 to the present, the only time in history that the Philippine peso has significantly strengthened in value, albeit with a sharp rebound in 2008. I'm at a loss to attribute this to any single event, but history has shown that movements of that scale do not happen without a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2018 Tying the Charts together ... update ST : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 16, 2018 TURNING? PHP getting Stronger? (for a while, at least) PHP - from 9/11/2018 to 10/17/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2018 PESO DEPRECIATION ... against USD / Thinking Global Has averaged 4.55% per annum, over the last Six Years. That is a larger loss than the estimated 4.0% Net Yield* on New Property. In other words, foreign buyers are now relying 100% on Capital Gains!! Timing: PHPusd chg: PSEI +chg% = in$USD -chg% End'12: 41.06 ----------: 5,813 ---------- : 141.57 End'13: 44.38 8.08%: 5,890 +1.32%: 132.72 - 6.25% End'14: 44.73 0.79%: 7,230 +22.8%: 161.64 +21.8% End'15: 46.86 4.76%: 6,952 -3.85%: 148.36 - 8.22% End'16: 49.61 5.87%: 6,841 -1.60%: 137.90 - 7.05% End'17: 49.96 0.71%: 8,558 +25.1%: 171.30 +24.2% 10/19-: 53.85 7.79%: 7,117 -16.8%: 132.16 -22.8% =Aver.: 6yrs > 4.55%: 6yrs> +3.74%: 6yrs.> -1.11% p.a. Over the last six years since the end of 2012,Foreigners (keeping score in USD) may have LOST money on many PH stocks. - Assuming that their stocks have performed in line with the PSEI. 2/ Absent Capital gains... Foreign buyers thinking in USD are likely to be LOSING wealth on their (new) PH property investments.Are they really going to make Cap.Gains buying New Property at over P200k psm? *Calculation" Estimated PH Property yields, New & Secondhand TYPE------ : PerSqm: EstRent: R- p.a.> GrossY : Cost-: PreTax : @80%/20% tax paid New Prop: P 200k : P1,000 : P12,000: 6.00 %: 2.00%: 4.00% : 3.20%: 2ndhand- : P 150k : P1,000 : P12,000: 8.00 %: 2.00%: 6.00% : 4.80%:Target = Min. 8-10% pa Gross: 10.0 %: 2.00%: 8.00% : 6.40%: Compare w/ Interest Rates on PH Govt. Bills PH 12mos. : 6.25% PH 5-years. : 7.45% ALTERNATIVE? Buy (select) Property stocks in foreign markets PH-listed vs. HK-listed "high-yield" Property stocks, adj. for Peso Depreciation Timing: PSEI-: HKSI--: ALI-- Yld%D0: SHNG Yl%D1: HK-10 Yld%D2 +Depr*: 87001 Yl%D3 +Depr* End'12: 5,813: 22,657: P26.45 1.81%: P3.04 6.45%: $44.05 1.82% +6.32%: R4.15 6.75% +11.2% End'13: 5,890: 23,306: P24.75 1.94%: P3.15 6.22%: $39.15 2.04% +6.54%: R3.86 7.25% +11.8% End'14: 7,230: 23,605: P33.70 1.42%: P3.30 5.93%: $35.20 2.27% +6.77%: R3.48 8.05% +12.5% End’15: 6,952: 21,914: P34.45 1.39%: P3.13 6.28%: $25.20 3.17% +8.67%: R3.33 8.41% +12.9% End'16: 6,841: 22,001: P32.00 1.50%: P3.27 5.99%: $27.00 2.96% +7.46%: R3.14 8.92% +13.4% End'17: 8,558: 29,919: P44.60 1.07%: P3.13 6.26%: $28.75 2.78% +7.28%: R3.15 8.89% +13.4% 10/19-: 7,152: 25,561: P40.90 1.17%: P3.12 6.28%: $19.58 4.09% +8.59%: R3.05 9.18% +13.7% Div.>- : P 225: $1,100: P 0.48 --------- : P .196 --------: $ 0.80 ----------- : ---------- : R 0.28 ------- : --------- :Yield- : 3.15%: 4.20%: 1.17% ------- : 6.28% ------: 4.09% ------- : ------- : 9.18% ----- : ------ :CapGains: Idx./Co: PSEI : HKSI : ALI ------------ : SHNG ------- : HK-10 ---------- : ---------- : 87001 ---------- : 6years +23.0% +12.8% +54.6% -—--- : +2.63% —-— : -55.5% —----—- : —-—— : -26.5% —— : ——— : Disc. : x.763 : x1.000 : x.763 : ——— : x.763 —---— : AdjPr : 5,456 : 25,561: P31.20 ———: P2.38——--—: $19.58 —----—- : ——-— : $3.05 ——- : ——— : $chg.: -6.15% +12.8%: +18.0% ——- : -21.7% —--— :-55.5% —----—- : ——-— :-26.5% ——> 6years ==== stock-: -Price- : PE-R: -Div.-: Yld-Latest ALI : P40.65 : 21.1: 0.480: 1.18% > 0.24 + 0.24 SHNG : P 3.12 : 4.51: 0.196: 6.28% > 0.07 + 0.1255 HK10 : $19.58 : 4.47: 0.800: 4.09% > HKD 87001 : $ 3.06 : 12.9: #.280: 9.15% > RMB *In preparing the table above, I used TODAY’s Dividend for all yearsDepreciation of the Peso is assumed to be 4.50% per annum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2018 Want a Better yield? ... than you can get in New PH Properties? (that's <4% Net) Currency matters, when you look at alternatives outside PH #1: Here's Shang Properties / update : w/o trendlines : SHNG : P 3.12 : 4.51: 0.196: 6.28% PHP (if you are willing to take FX risk, then some foreign property stocks may offer even better returns) #2: Hang Lung Group, which trades in Hong Kong / update : w/o-trendlines : Thread on Hang Lung : HK10 : $19.58 : 4.47: 0.800: 4.09% > HKD #3: Hui Xian REIT, which trades in HK, but in RMB / update : w/o trendlines : 87001 : $ 3.06 : 12.9: #.280: 9.15% > RMB == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2018 Hong Kong Property prices Many Properties are Now near P1,500k psm (1.5 mn Pesos) per sqm ! But they are now under pressure, falling about 5-10% from the recent peak Centaline Index ... update : 100 was 1997 Peak, now 185, ie 85% Higher Hong Kong Property Agent's Window Note Discounts! Harbour Green-- : 995/1050:-5.23% (/482=$20,643psf), ImperialCullinan: 1400/1550:-9.68% (/524=$26,718psf) The Long Beach: 1140 (/550= hk$20,727psf)HKD$ 20,000psf: x10.73 x6.90 = PHP 1,480k per sqm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 Two of my Favorite Asian property-related shares are Hang Lung & Shang ( I own HK10, but not SHNG yet ) HSI & PSEI, vs HK10 & SHNG ... update : since Nov. 2014 : 10d : HLG & HLP : video: Hong Kong Is Growing Slowly, Says Hang Lung's Chan Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Properties, discusses retail in China, Hong Kong's economy, Hong Kong retail, how the U.S.-China trade war could impact his business, rising interest rates and Hong Kong's residential market. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open" from the sidelines of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. > https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-06/hong-kong-is-growing-slowly-says-hang-lung-s-chan-video Major NEWS of 2018 for Hang Lung: Hang Lung snaps up prime Hangzhou plot for US$1.7b/ 29 May 2018 HL's Largest single investment ever? The land is believed to be the most expensive plot for commercial project development in the capital city of affluent Zhejiang province, and one of Hang Lung’s priciest ever mainland acquisitions. Total investment of 19 billion yuan is earmarked for the planned project, a large-scale commercial mixed-use complex, comprising a world-class shopping centre and office tower, the Hong Kong real estate major said late on Monday. HK$ Rmb 19 Bn /6.93= US$ 2.74 Bn x1.13 = HKD 21.47 Billion (1.36B, 2.51B shs) = HK$15.79 per HK10 share, & HK$8.55 per HK101 share Hangzhou City, China's Manhattan > article HangLung : IR-news : SCMP : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 WHEN THINKING - about Pesos and Inflation - think about this too ! LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent "An inevitable return"? The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable? As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES (yeah, and increasing risk of default!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2018 CHINESE Currency (RMB) in Pesos - Big impact on Inflation? Is it Easing now? CNY in PHP ... All data +USD : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo / Last: Php 7.625 per RMB == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 Investors Look to Philippines to Avoid Trade War, Says Trade Secretary The Philippines Trade Minister, Ramon Lopez, says that the Philippines is benefiting from the U.S.- China trade war, with both countries seeing it as an alternative manufacturing site. He also discusses the Philippines opening up its economy to non-traditional markets. Ramon Lopez spoke exclusively to Bloomberg's Haslinda Amin in Singapore. (Source: Bloomberg) > https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-15/investors-look-to-philippines-to-avoid-trade-war-says-trade-secretary-video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2019 The HANG LUNG "Solo" is WORKING ! (as reported on the TCF Club thread ) : == Maximizing The Return in a Silo... "HK-quoted Property Shares" / HK10 : All-data : thread : Initial Portfolio (Oct. 2018) HK10 : $19.50 x 82,000 shs = $1,599k > US$203.k > P 10.7M At $21.60, early Dec. HK10 : $21.60 x 74,000 shs = $1,598k Cash held , sold 8,000 shs > $ 173k Total: $1,771K (+ 10.8%) At $19.50, early Jan. HK10 : $19.50 x 82,870 shs = $1,616k At $21.60, this week: HK10 : $21.60 x 72,000 shs = $1,555k Cash held, sold 10,870 shs > $ 235kTotal: $1,790k (+ 11.9%) That is > US$227.k > P 12.0M, up from P10.7M xx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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