Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

PESO: PHP Charts, Inflation & foreign Property stocks

Recommended Posts

PESO - PHP Price History

PHP : 11 Sep.2018 onwards : update : 10d : psei : $cny Pcny / Last: PHP 54.08 at Oct.1st, after 54.40 high 

Historical - from 9.11 to: 10.17.18-P53.8 : to 11.07.18 ... Last: P52.9

Lzq4I0n.gif

PHP : 2008-2017 (ends Feb.2018, because of data glinch, in middle of that month)

J1xLMVL.gif

PHP: 2000-2018 : update :

HsHzGvO.png

The Philippine peso, from 1950 to 2009

A 60-year history of the Philippine peso packed into one happy graph:

38zInhI.png

What we have here is a chart showing the historical exchange rate of the Philippine Peso against the US Dollar from 1950 to 2009. (Data from 1950 to 1997 from Penn World Tables; Data from 1997 onwards from Oanda, using exchange rates on January 1 of each year)


It's just really weird that I haven't seen a graph like this available anywhere else on the internet, because there's so much that can be learned from it. Look at how all the significant movements in the graph can be traced to events in Philippine history (which is, looking back at it, composed almost entirely of bad news):
  • 1961: President Diosdado Macapagal allows the peso to float on the free currency exchange market, unpegging it from the US dollar to stimulate economic development. Its value sinks from P2 to P3.7 to the dollar.
  • 1970: I can only assume this is due to the First Quarter Storm, where a series of heavy demonstrations and protests and marches take their toll on the country. The value of the peso slips from P4 to P6 to the dollar.
  • 1983: Ninoy Aquino assassinated, and Marcos' shit hits the fan. The country rapidly deteriorates, culminating in the EDSA Revolution. Value of the peso dives from P8 to 20 to the dollar over a few years.
  • 1989: A series of ugly coup attempts threatens the Aquino administration, including a bloodbath in January 1989. Peso descends from P21 to P27 to the dollar over two years.
  • 1997: The Asian Financial Crisis occurs, and I can't understand it no matter how many times I check Wikipedia, but the peso crashes from P26 to P41 to the dollar in a single frickin' year.
  • 2000: Economic mismanagement and political instability during the Estrada administration, plus charges or corruption leading to an impeachment trial. Peso nosedives from P40 to P50 to the dollar.
And finally there's 2005 to the present, the only time in history that the Philippine peso has significantly strengthened in value, albeit with a sharp rebound in 2008. I'm at a loss to attribute this to any single event, but history has shown that movements of that scale do not happen without a reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tying the Charts together ... update ST :

00eotFD.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TURNING?  PHP getting Stronger? (for a while, at least)

PHP - from 9/11/2018 to 10/17/2018

3qwdkZG.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PESO DEPRECIATION ... against USD / Thinking Global

Has averaged 4.55% per annum, over the last Six Years.
That is a larger loss than the estimated 4.0% Net Yield* on New Property.
In other words, foreign buyers are now relying 100% on Capital Gains!!

Timing: PHPusd chg: PSEI +chg% = in$USD -chg%
End'12: 41.06 ----------: 5,813  ---------- : 141.57
End'13: 44.38 8.08%: 5,890 +1.32%: 132.72 - 6.25%
End'14: 44.73 0.79%: 7,230 +22.8%: 161.64 +21.8%
End'15: 46.86 4.76%: 6,952  -3.85%: 148.36 - 8.22%
End'16: 49.61 5.87%: 6,841  -1.60%: 137.90 - 7.05%
End'17: 49.96 0.71%: 8,558 +25.1%: 171.30 +24.2%
10/19-: 53.85 7.79%: 7,117  -16.8%: 132.16  -22.8%
=Aver.: 6yrs > 4.55%: 6yrs> +3.74%: 6yrs.> -1.11% p.a.

Over the last six years since the end of 2012,
Foreigners (keeping score in USD) may have LOST money on many PH stocks.
- Assuming that their stocks have performed in line with the PSEI.

2/ Absent Capital gains... Foreign buyers thinking in USD
are likely to be LOSING wealth on their (new) PH property investments.
Are they really going to make Cap.Gains buying New Property at over P200k psm?

jbMH91O.png

*Calculation" Estimated PH Property yields, New & Secondhand
TYPE------ : PerSqm: EstRent: R- p.a.> GrossY : Cost-: PreTax : @80%/20% tax paid
New Prop:  P 200k : P1,000 : P12,000: 6.00 %: 2.00%: 4.00% : 3.20%:
2ndhand- :  P 150k : P1,000 : P12,000: 8.00 %: 2.00%: 6.00% : 4.80%:

Target = Min. 8-10% pa Gross: 10.0 %: 2.00%: 8.00% : 6.40%:
Compare w/ Interest Rates on PH Govt. Bills
PH 12mos. : 6.25%
PH 5-years. : 7.45%

HsHzGvO.png

ALTERNATIVE? Buy (select) Property stocks in foreign markets

PH-listed vs. HK-listed "high-yield" Property stocks, adj. for Peso Depreciation

Timing:  PSEI-: HKSI--: ALI-- Yld%D0: SHNG Yl%D1: HK-10 Yld%D2 +Depr*: 87001 Yl%D3 +Depr*
End'12: 5,813: 22,657: P26.45 1.81%: P3.04 6.45%: $44.05 1.82% +6.32%: R4.15 6.75% +11.2%
End'13: 5,890: 23,306: P24.75 1.94%: P3.15 6.22%: $39.15 2.04% +6.54%: R3.86 7.25% +11.8%
End'14: 7,230: 23,605: P33.70 1.42%: P3.30 5.93%: $35.20 2.27% +6.77%: R3.48 8.05% +12.5%
End’15: 6,952: 21,914: P34.45 1.39%: P3.13 6.28%: $25.20 3.17% +8.67%: R3.33 8.41% +12.9%
End'16: 6,841: 22,001: P32.00 1.50%: P3.27 5.99%: $27.00 2.96% +7.46%: R3.14 8.92% +13.4%
End'17: 8,558: 29,919: P44.60 1.07%: P3.13 6.26%: $28.75 2.78% +7.28%: R3.15 8.89% +13.4%
10/19-: 7,152: 25,561: P40.90 1.17%: P3.12 6.28%: $19.58 4.09% +8.59%: R3.05 9.18% +13.7%
Div.>- :  P 225: $1,100:  P 0.48 --------- : P .196 --------: $ 0.80 ----------- : ---------- : R 0.28 ------- : --------- :
Yield- : 3.15%: 4.20%:  1.17% ------- : 6.28% ------: 4.09% ------- : ------- : 9.18% ----- : ------ :
CapGains:
Idx./Co: PSEI  :  HKSIALI ------------  : SHNG  ------- : HK-10  ---------- : ---------- : 87001 ---------- :
6years +23.0% +12.8% +54.6% -—--- : +2.63% —-— : -55.5% —----—- : —-—— : -26.5% —— : ——— :
Disc.   : x.763 : x1.000 : x.763 : ——— : x.763 —---— :
AdjPr :  5,456 : 25,561: P31.20 ———: P2.38——--—: $19.58 —----—- : ——-— : $3.05 ——- : ——— :
$chg.: -6.15% +12.8%: +18.0% ——- : -21.7% —--— :-55.5% —----—- : ——-— :-26.5% ——> 6years
====

stock-: -Price- : PE-R: -Div.-: Yld-Latest
ALI      : P40.65 : 21.1: 0.480: 1.18% > 0.24 + 0.24
SHNG :  P 3.12 : 4.51: 0.196: 6.28% > 0.07 + 0.1255
HK10  : $19.58 : 4.47: 0.800: 4.09% > HKD
87001 : $  3.06 : 12.9: #.280: 9.15% > RMB

*In preparing the table above, I used TODAY’s Dividend for all years
Depreciation of the Peso is assumed to be 4.50% per annum

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Want a Better yield? ... than you can get in New PH Properties? (that's <4% Net)

Currency matters, when you look at alternatives outside PH

#1: Here's Shang Properties / update : w/o trendlines :

SHNG :  P 3.12 : 4.51: 0.196: 6.28% PHP

doDNGk6.gif

(if you are willing to take FX risk, then some foreign property stocks may offer even better returns)

#2: Hang Lung Group, which trades in Hong Kong / update : w/o-trendlines : Thread on Hang Lung :

HK10  : $19.58 : 4.47: 0.800: 4.09% > HKD

Thuenqf.gif

#3: Hui Xian REIT, which trades in HK, but in RMB / update : w/o trendlines :

87001 : $  3.06 : 12.9: #.280: 9.15% > RMB

9oYiuBB.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hong Kong Property prices

Many Properties are Now near P1,500k psm (1.5 mn Pesos) per sqm !

But they are now under pressure, falling about 5-10% from the recent peak

Centaline Index ... update : 100 was 1997 Peak, now 185, ie 85% Higher

KHpgSgt.png

Hong Kong Property Agent's Window

PUqAfSJ.jpg

Note Discounts!
Harbour Green-- :  995/1050:-5.23% (/482=$20,643psf),
ImperialCullinan: 1400/1550:-9.68% (/524=$26,718psf)
The Long Beach: 1140 (/550= hk$20,727psf)
HKD$ 20,000psf: x10.73 x6.90 = PHP 1,480k per sqm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two of my Favorite Asian property-related shares are Hang Lung & Shang

( I own HK10, but not SHNG yet )

HSI & PSEI, vs HK10 & SHNG ... update : since Nov. 2014 : 10d : HLG & HLP :

UT4S5Rq.gif

video: Hong Kong Is Growing Slowly, Says Hang Lung's Chan

Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Properties, discusses retail in China, Hong Kong's economy, Hong Kong retail, how the U.S.-China trade war could impact his business, rising interest rates and Hong Kong's residential market. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open" from the sidelines of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. 

> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-06/hong-kong-is-growing-slowly-says-hang-lung-s-chan-video

Major NEWS of 2018 for Hang Lung:

Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Group and Hang Lung Properties. Photo: SCMP

Hang Lung snaps up prime Hangzhou plot for US$1.7b

The land is believed to be the most expensive plot for commercial project development in the capital city of affluent Zhejiang province, and one of Hang Lung’s priciest ever mainland acquisitions.
Total investment of 19 billion yuan is earmarked for the planned project, a large-scale commercial mixed-use complex, comprising a world-class shopping centre and office tower, the Hong Kong real estate major said late on Monday.
HK$ Rmb 19 Bn /6.93= US$ 2.74 Bn x1.13 = HKD 21.47 Billion (1.36B, 2.51B shs)
= HK$15.79 per HK10 share, & HK$8.55 per HK101 share

d4bed9d6cb40188c0ff423.jpg

Hangzhou City, China's Manhattan > article

HangLung : IR-news : SCMP :

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WHEN THINKING - about Pesos and Inflation - think about this too !

LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent

"An inevitable return"?

The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable?

As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES

(yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CHINESE Currency (RMB) in Pesos - Big impact on Inflation?  Is it Easing now?

CNY in PHP ... All data +USD : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo / Last: Php 7.625 per RMB

eKD3doi.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoticons maximum are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×