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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - Aug. 2018 Trading - v.115

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TOP of Page Header ... : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : idx24_russell_en_2.gif : idx24_hui_en_2.gif :

3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

chart.png?m=bitstampUSD&v=1&t=S&noheader

BTC all data: 8yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d10d 5d / SLV-lv

rRVz8qT.png

NYXBT : 3yr : 3yr-377d : 1yr : 6mo :

tb8Gy2P.gif

02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50) =6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/( -750 :11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/31: 0.6817 x$7091- +200 =4834 -050:$7041Jun(+403):4800/(+603+12.6%):
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
05/10: 0.6937 x$9365(+000) =6497 +268:$9,533Jun(+003):6613/(+003+0.05%):+0000:$9,633+568,-.000: 9.90
07/22: 0.6932 x$7700(+000) =5337 +050:$7,750Sep(+000):5372/(+000+0.00%):+0000:$7,750+050,-.000: 9.38
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x$7,750= $1744: 3628: H:4762 /$1,134/.6937= 1635 = 9.38 to New High

CRYPTO---- : BTC &us$ - 07/22- : 05/10- :
Bitcoin-- : US-Dollars  @7,737 : @9,330 :
Cardano-- : .00002372 : $ 0.18 : $ 0.33 :
Bitc. cash : 0.10860---- : $0,840.: $1,761 :
Ethereum-: 0.06096---- : $  472.: $0,787 :
Litecoin--- : 0.01113---- : $  086.: $0,169 :
Ripple------ : 0.0000601 : $ 0.46.: $ 0.85 :
TRON------- : 0.0000047 : $ 0.03.:
EOS Token- : 0.001092 : $ 8.45.:

crypto mining companies

ATLEF vs Hive ... from 1.1.2018 :HIVE 7/20/2018 (vs.6/5): C$0.81 (1.12): RIOT: $5.90 (7.80), ATLEF: $0.12 (0.225)

fHrXg0N.gif

 

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UK Peak versus possible PH Property Peak?

In reaction to a post on my website about the UK property market:

First time since 1990 I've heard an agent utter the words 'the market is falling'.

That's an important marker.

They probably would not say that unless there was a lot of evidence

The main property bellwether, BDEV, peaked over 9 months ago

That's nicely within the window of "Developer stocks peak 6-12 months before the actual market"

BDEV / Barratt Dev'l ... update :

NSW3pSS.gif=

Compare : PH:ALI, Ayalaland

69hr4yh.gif

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Gold pushing up towards $1200 again

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : $1200 = abt. GBS.-$113.10

Here's GBS / Gold Bullion Securities ... 10d6mos : 3mos / GLD-3mo :

wre5yxk.gif

 

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Could be just the 4th wave: 

 

Nevertheless haven't sold any of my gold holdings, as we all know this will all blow over in a few months.

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It is possible... since Gold is still in a downtrend (see my last post)

Holding above $1200 today, might begin to change that

EUR is testing its downchannel today ... 10d :

jm1Yn4Z.gif

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coffee

Q3eI0Il.png

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THESE Gold-related charts look reasonable "symmetrical" to me.

hard to know if they will mean anything - until we see the next move

Gold in-EUR

NOVVpDs.png

GDX to-Gold

xx

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From BUBBLE in PH property? thread...

CAUTION - during the possible "last rally" ?

What should the worried property investor do now?? Any suggestions??

IF you are going to buy, then Buy Carefully:

+ Secondhand, cheaper properties

+ With better prospective yields, like 8-10%+ Gross yield

The Good news is the recent Downtrend in PH property stocks was broken, as  USD Libor eased somewhat

Reverse Libor (DLBR) vs PH Property stocks ... update :

5Ao1HlS.gif

This trend change, suggests a possible new high - or retest of highs - in these stocks, and that the bull market in PH property is still alive

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COMEY's Cover-up of Clinton Crimes

James-Comey-Anthony-Weiner-Hillary-Clint

https://therightscoop.com/turns-out-comey-lied-about-the-emails-on-anthony-weiners-laptop/

It turns out that Comey lied in 2016 about a full review of all the emails on Anthony Weiner’s laptop as he finally closed the Hillary email scandal for good. Shocking, I know.

Real Clear Investigations report:

When then-FBI Director James Comey announced he was closing the Hillary Clinton email investigation for a second time just days before the 2016 election, he certified to Congress that his agency had “reviewed all of the communications” discovered on a personal laptop used by Clinton’s closest aide, Huma Abedin, and her husband, Anthony Weiner.

At the time, many wondered how investigators managed over the course of one week to read the “hundreds of thousands” of emails residing on the machine, which had been a focus of a sex-crimes investigation of Weiner, a former Congressman.

Comey later told Congress that “thanks to the wizardry of our technology,” the FBI was able to eliminate the vast majority of messages as “duplicates” of emails they’d previously seen. Tireless agents, he claimed, then worked “night after night after night” to scrutinize the remaining material.

But virtually none of his account was true, a growing body of evidence reveals.

Here’s what really happened:

In fact, a technical glitch prevented FBI technicians from accurately comparing the new emails with the old emails. Only 3,077 of the 694,000 emails were directly reviewed for classified or incriminating information. Three FBI officials completed that work in a single 12-hour spurt the day before Comey again cleared Clinton of criminal charges.

Only 3,077 out of 694,000? That’s less than half a percent, and it was apparently a treasure trove of confidential information. Good grief. 

Of course we know what really happened. Hillary’s people put massive pressure on Comey and his Hillary henchmen to kill the investigation before the election. So they did. And of course, these same FBI agents were very busy with trying to defeat Trump so that had something to do with it too.

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BOOM! Gold up $19

GLD /Gold etf ... 10d / last: $114.16, vol. 8.5mn

T9e32Av.gif

Gold Holds $1,190 Kitco Commentary

Commerzbank: Gold Simply Needs Spark For Short-Covering Rally Kitco News

Gold Prices Rise 1% Following Comments From Fed Chair Powell Kitco News

Gold Prices At $1,200 As U.S. Durable Goods Miss Expectations, ...

Gold Posting Solid Gains As U.S. Dollar Index Sells Off ...

Look for gold to consolidate between $1,190 and $1,210, which would give us enough confidence that the lows are in. However, a break below $1,180 would cause some major heartburn and would mean lower prices.

Chair Powell is in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and speaks today. His words could create a big move in gold depending how he uses them.

. . . “The [2018] drop in price is largely the result of a stronger dollar, a buoyant U.S. equity market, weak EM [emerging-market] currencies and speculative selling,” Commerzbank said. “Covering of record-high short positions would cause the gold price to surge. All it needs is a trigger, for example, a correction of equity markets or an end to USD [U.S. dollar] strength.”

“The dollar has reaped the benefit of both its substantial yield advantage versus the euro and from its role as a safe haven,” Commerzbank said. “The latter has led to strong demand for U.S. Treasuries so that the 10-year yield has dropped to well below the 3% mark.”

. . .  Gold prices are holding above the critical psychological barrier at $1,200 an ounce and up more than 1% on the day as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlights the central bank's commitment to gradually raise interest rates as the U.S. economy continue its strong performance.

In his much-anticipated remarks at the global central bank retreat at Jackson Hole Wyoming, said that the U.S. economy has "strengthen substantially" but the current pace of rate hikes is appropriate as there is not an elevated risk of overheating."

"The economy is strong. Inflation is near our 2 percent objective, and most people who want a job are finding one," he said in his speech.

Gold prices are not only trading at session highs but its highest level for the week following Powell's comments. December gold futures last traded at $1,209 an ounce, up more than 1.2% on the day.

BZ6KRS8k

Adam Button, currency strategist at Forexlive.com, said that Powell's comments have a bit of a dovish tone, despite the optimistic outlook.

. . . (earlier): Friday, the U.S. Census Bureau said that new durable goods orders dropped by $4.3 billion or 1.7% to $246.9 billion, in July, missing expectations. Consensus forecasts were calling for a decline of 0.7%.

Core durable goods, which strips out the volatile transportation sector was also weaker than expected, increasing 0.2% last month. Consensus forecasts were calling for a 0.5% increase. June's core data was also revised down to a rise of 0.2%.

Gold prices had been trending higher through the early morning session after holding support around $1,190 an ounce overnight. December gold futures last traded at $1,200 an ounce, up 0.50% on the day. (and Moved HIGHER later.)

. . . There are mixed ideas on whether Powell's comments were deemed hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. Nonetheless, the U.S. dollar index is trading near its daily low. December gold was last up $19.70 an ounce at $1,213.60.

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SWOT Analysis: Rising Inflation Could Lift Gold Prices Frank E. Holmes

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in almost a year, according to a University of Michigan report. Bloomberg writes that this could be a possible caution signal for spending following strong gains in the second quarter. The report also showed that buying conditions for large household durable goods fell to the lowest in four years, car-buying views were the lowest since 2013 and home-buying conditions are the least favorable in about a decade. Another sign of inflation is in Deere & Co.’s lower earnings due to higher freight and raw material costs. Steel prices are rising due to tariffs on imports and freight costs are up due to higher oil prices and a shortage of big-rig drivers. Bloomberg writes that “cost inflation is marring what is proving to be a strong uptick in demand for agricultural-machinery.”

Hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio has kept his faith in the two biggest ETFs backed by gold, even as other investors have backed away, reports Bloomberg. As of the end of the second quarter, Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates had 3.9 million shares in SPDR Gold Shares and 11.3 million in the iShares Gold Trust, according to regulatory filings. Ten-year real yields are down 10 basis points since the start of the month which likely helps to stall the dollar. A stronger dollar has kept investors away from gold, which may no longer viewed as the traditional safe-haven asset. However, Rick Rule, chief executive officer of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc. doesn’t think this trend will last. Rule said that U.S. investors “will begin to diversify their risk-off trade to include, among other things, gold” after they shift focus away from the U.S. dollar relative to other currencies.

The first bullion-backed ETF guaranteed by a government has launched on the New York Stock Exchange. Australia’s Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) started trading on Wednesday and allows shareholders to exchange their shares for gold and have the physical metal delivered to their doorstep by Perth Mint. Richard Hayes, the Perth Mint’s chief executive officer, said that “we believe investors will have greater confidence with the knowledge that their wealth is physically stored in one of the most secure central bank grade vaults in the southern hemisphere.”

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WEEKLY: Gold may have Bottomed in sharp short-covering rally

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/03 :  08/10 :  08/17 :  08/24 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 : 1219.0 : 1184.2 : 1213.3 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 118.65 : 115.83 : 114.92 : 114.69 : 112.13 : 114.16 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 271.28 : 281.43 : 283.60 : 283.16 : 285.06 : 287.51 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2718.4 : 2818.8 : 2840.4 : 2833.3 : 2850.1 : 2874.7 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 216.7%: 230.4% : 232.2% : 232.4%: 240.7%: 236.9%:
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $75.94 : $76.63 : $75.24: $75.29 : $72.61 : $74.54 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $74.15 : $68.69 : $68.49 : $67.63 : $65.21 : $68.72 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r16.92 : r-17.80 : R-17.86 : r18.02 : r18.16 : R17.66 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.850 : $2.940 : $2.950 : $2.920 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $2.970 : $2.800 : $2.760 : $2.740 : $2.630 : $2.700 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->: 861.75 : 892.75 : 855.25 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47%: 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 501.25 : 530.50 : 556.25 : 546.75 : 579.75 : 536.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 371.25 : 376.25 : 384.25 : 371.75 : 378.75 : 362.75 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.39 : 194.16 : 193.23 : 191.69 : 188.74 : 192.08 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.03: $17.47 : $17.51 : $17.21 : $17.44 : $17.04 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  8.99% :  9.00% :  9.06%  :  8.98% :  9.24%  :  8.87% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r-3.841 : r-3.990 : r-4.212 : r-4.386 : r-4.300 : r-4.375 : r-4.163 : r-??
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $94.47 : $94.67 : $95.16 : $96.27 : $96.13 : $95.16 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 121.72 : 119.46 : 119.22 : 120.66 : 120.98 : 122.29 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1223.2 : 1219.0 : 1184.2 : 1213.3 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.532 : r1.528 : r-1.539 : r1.551 : r1.533 : r1.586 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE : 819.04 : 800.20 : 794.90 : 786.08 : 772.24 : 764.58 : 
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.06 :$20.94 : $21.18 : $20.83 : $18.43 : $18.13 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.31 :$21.32 : $21.16 : $20.56 : $18.72 : $18.95 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.70 : $31.92 : $31.46 : $30.60 : $27.49 : $28.21 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $28.88 : $27.53 : $27.23 : $26.52 : $24.51 : $25.21 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : R1.910 : R1.889 : R1.878 : R1.840 : r1.761 : R??
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.15 : $14.57 : $14.50 : $14.41 : $13.92 : $13.92 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.200 : 15.490 : 15.460 : 15.300 : 14.630 : 14.790 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $28.75 : $28.13 : $28.64 : $28.74 : $28.09 : $28.55 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $43.33 : $44.69 : $44.21 : $43.19 : $42.21 : $43.37 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 2847.4 : 2873.6 : 2740.4 : 2795.3 : 2669.0 : 2729.4 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7193.7 : 7701.4 : 7819.4 : 7805.0 : 7583.5 : 7766.5 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $26.59 : $28.13 : $28.12 : $29.97 : $28.17 : $28.24 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 163.77 : 165.26 : 166.39 : 167.53 : 168.35 : 171.59 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1624 : 0.1702 : 0.1690 : 0.1789 : 0.1673 : 0.1646 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $5,883  : $8,143 : $7,473 : $6,462 : $6,495 : $6,499 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/03 :  08/10 :  08/17 :  08/24 :

 

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New Finance Regime?  End of US Dollar Dominance

After the News & Chart moves of this week, the USD rally may be over

DXY / trade-weighted USD ... since 1/2012 :

b2bhkGn.gif

===

"Germany has had enough"

"Independent SWIFT System. Europe wants to stick to Iran treaty"

NEWS AND VIEWS FROM THE NEFARIUM AUGUST 23 2018

It's begun: Germany wants a new financial clearing system independent of American-controlled SWIFT:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-0...

https://sputniknews.com/amp/world/201...

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GLD ... 6mo : Last $114.16

AiSUDk4.gif

GLD ... since Late 2016 :

vU1Sq0d.gif

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WHEN?  Is NOW! says Jim Sinclair, about the timing of trouble starting

Jim Sinclair & Bill Holter - The World Is Venezuela

Why now?

"the TRIGGER has already been pulled... in the Emerging Markets"

"The contagion is going to spread... China's going to get swept up in it"

+ Advent of a serious Trade War... China is moving

+ The Emerging Market countries, were like a synthetic short (because they borrowed in USD).  Fed tightening triggered a short-covering war.  That may be over now

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Crypto Summary at 08/27/18

CRYPTO---- : BTC &us$ - 08/27- : 07/22- : 05/10- :
Bitcoin-- : US-Dollars  @6,702: @7,737: @9,330:
Cardano-- : .00001449 : $ 0.097 : $  0.18 : $  0.33 :
Bitc. cash : 0.0795------ : $0,533 : $0,840.: $1,761 :
Ethereum : 0.04144---- : $  277. : $  472.: $  787 :
Litecoin--- : 0.00860---- : $  58.6 : $  086.: $0,169 :
Ripple------ : 0.0000498 : $ 0.33.: $ 0.46.: $ 0.85 :
TRON------- : 0.0000034: $0.023 : $ 0.03.:
EOS Token: 0.000766  : $ 5.13 : $ 8.45.:
===
 crypto mining companies

ATLEF vs Hive ... from 1.1.2018 :HIVE 7/20/2018 (vs.6/5): C$0.81 (1.12): RIOT: $5.90 (7.80), ATLEF: $0.12 (0.225)
>
==

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There are some major alignments happening all at once at the moment. Dollar index appears to have peaked, BDEV peaked 2017 that is now likely to show in the markets October 2018, gold and the miners appear to have bottomed. I also think sterling is oversold. Europeans are wakening up to the insanity of mass immigration. Question is will precious metals run or have they lost their shine as new and younger demographics no longer  believe in their store of value.

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Fleeing the Buck: What Will Happen if Gulf States Move Away From the Dollar?

Russia, Turkey, China and Iran are fleeing the dollar and promoting bilateral trade in national currencies, amid the US tariff and sanctions spree. Speaking to Sputnik, Middle Eastern economists have shared their views on whether the Persian Gulf States will follow suit.

"It is very difficult to move away from the dollar alone, but if the countries of the Persian Gulf decided to do this together, if they introduced a single currency, this would have a huge effect and a push for progress," Egyptian economist Muhammed Abdel Jawad told Sputnik Arabic, adding that "this would turn the Gulf states into "global economic leaders."

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Another long term Gold Bull (it seems)

Danielle DiMartino Booth - Gold is the Ultimate Hiding Place

 

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FDI.L / Firestone Diamonds ... All Data : 10yr / Last: 5.25P

hSbXNqU.gif

: 10yr :

Rnr8VwW.gif

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