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DrBubb's Diary - July 2018 Trading - v.114

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv



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Gold versus Gold stocks

GLD vs GDX, GDXJ ... in 2018 : Flipped :


: Flipped :


KITCO Headlines

Has the Bear Woken Up? Gary Wagner

Immediately following the apex and all-time record price of $1,900 per ounce in August 2011, gold, for the most part, traded with consistent lower highs followed by lower lows. That trend continued up until the end of 2015 when gold pricing reached a low of $1,040.

From those lows, gold would rally to the highest trading point since the correction when prices touched $1,377 per ounce in June 2016. Prices then corrected to a low of $1,126 per ounce well above the previous low. What would follow would be a series of shallow rallies moving to higher highs, followed by brief corrections that would conclude with a higher low.

Then in September 2017 gold prices once again challenged the highs achieved earlier reaching $1,362, this would be the first of four occurrences in which gold prices would challenge and trade above $1,360 per ounce.

On the last of the four occurrences gold reached a high of $1,369 before it began its correction. The major difference during this current correction is that today gold traded to a lower low than the previous low.

At the same time, technical traders identified a “death cross”, which is an indication that a short-term correction has now become a long-term trend. These two events occurring in a short time span could be the first technical evidence that the bullish market sentiment which has been so prevalent in gold since the end of the multiyear correction has now ended. It could, in fact, be signaling that the bear has woken up.

Gold: Where Are The Buyers? Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz
  • As seen in the chart below, gold stocks have outperformed bullion for the past five weeks. In fact, the spread between the two shows outperformance of gold equities by over 500 points.   This increase in the value of the gold mining companies relative to gold is borne out by the money flows cited in the prior bullet point, in that money is coming out of precious metal funds and instead are buying the stocks of the companies that mine gold. Perhaps this rotation is anticipating the seasonal buying pattern in the yellow metal, which normally rises as the fall season approaches, but the stocks can perform much stronger than gold bullion itself.


gold stocks have outperformed bullion for the past 5 weeks

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Euro, Gold Ready to Turn-up maybe?

EUR vs. Gold etfs ... update


EUR-etc, from 12/1/17 :


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SPX to...

Ratio to EUR


Ratio to Gold





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Is this Timing of GOLD LOWS matching Trump/Putin meetings just "seasonality" & a mere Coincidence?


Trump/Putin Meeting date, and trading prices before & after

DATE---- : - GDX : - GLD- : $Gold- : - WTI- : - DXY- :
07/05/17: 21.76 : 116.47 : 1221.7 : $45.13 : $96.27 :
07/06/17: 21.49 : 116.47 : 1223.3 : $45.52 : $95.57 :
07/07/17: 21.21 : 115.28 : 1209.7 : $44.23 : $95.79 :
07/10/17:  ???
+ 2mos.:
09/07/17: 25.49 : 128.13 : 1332.7 : $49.09 : $91.54 > Gold up $123.0 : +10.2%
07/13/18: 21.96 : 117.61 : 1241.2 $71.01 : $94.51 :
07/16/18: 21.87 : 117.55 : 1239.7 $68.06 : $94.55 :
07/17/18: ???


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Go Listen to Michael Rivero, 1st Hour, Tuesday's show

> MP3 : http://media.blubrry.com/rbn/s/content.blubrry.com/rbn/stream_2018-07-17_145948.mp3

The level of sedition and treason in the news the last 24 hours or so is shocking.

I think some of these people ( Brennan for instance, + others) should be rounded up.


These guys sound like traitors, who should not be walking around, and calling for a change* in govt.

Rivero mentions that "the last president who called for a better relationship with Russia and got excoriated for it was...

JFK, just before his assassination. What are these people planning?"


*some even said Trump should be replaced by HELLary, so we should know who is behind this - Lock 'er up!

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Gold & Silver versus Euro - still falling, as EUR holds its ground

EUR vs SLV, Gold etfs ... from 12.01.17  : 12mo :


: 12mo :



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Gold Chart - nice clear lines can still be drawn!
Gold Needs To Break With Yuan Bill Baruch
Gold Bears Are Roaring Louder Avi Gilburt
The fundamental picture suggests that gold continues to have a downward bias and our target of $1,220 suggested two weeks ago, after gold’s break below $1,252, remains viable. There is buying interest in the $1,238 area, but the level has been tested twice and a third attempt may prove successful. Gold’s direction remains dependent on the course of the dollar and here the 10-year bond rate becomes a focal point. When the yield was north of 3%, gold came under selling pressure, but the current yield closer to 2.85% should have created a bigger bounce for the yellow metal. It is probable that the yield goes higher from here, which will again prompt dollar buying and create an issue for gold prices. On the bright side, the weaker prices have begun to spark investor interest again in the physical market, but the volumes remain much softer on a year-on-year comparison.
. . . If Gold can deter its focus from the Chinese Yuan, we imagine the metal would find itself higher in the latter half of the week. We are also eyeing Industrial Production data at 8:15 am CT.

Technicals: Price action continues to flirt with and fail to lift from our rare major four-star support. Gold must trade out above resistance at 1247.9-1248.8 to bring even the most modest life back to this market.

. . . I am again seeing many articles coming out suggesting that you must stay away from metals. I am even seeing many articles coming out with perspectives presenting their certainty that gold is heading below $1,000. And, yes, many of them were written by those who were looking for a break down below $1,000 gold back in 2015/2016, and they missed one of the strongest rallies seen in the metals complex. I suspect they will be left in the same position as we look forward towards 2019. And, if you are asking yourself about the bullish articles, generally I don’t even bother reading or looking at articles from perma-bulls, as we already know what they are going to say.

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Ratio Improving for Gold shares

Ratio : GDX -to-GLD


One Year


Gold sold more than Gold shares & SPDR was a seller

SP Angel: Gold ETF Holdings Fall To Lowest Level Since March

Holdings of gold by global exchange-traded funds have fallen to the lowest level since March, reports commodities brokerage SP Angel. The ETFs trade like a stock but track the price of the commodity, with metal put into storage to back the shares. They give investors exposure to the gold price without incurring certain expenses such as assaying and storage. “Depressed gold prices are forcing total known holdings in ETFs to fall to 2,158.1 tonnes, the lowest since March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,” SP Angel says. “Investors continue to exit exchange-traded funds for eight consecutive weeks, the longest slump since January 2014, as appetite for the metal wanes amid a strengthening dollar and robust demand for equities.”

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News

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TUCKER Nails it - in his opening remarks

"Trump has been taken hostage.. by the same people who have mis-managed our foreign affairs"

"On the Big Issues, Trump is indisputably right!!"

Tucker Carlson Tonight Fox News 7/17/18


God bless Tucker, who speaks sense from a big platform

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(summary added):

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner says don’t believe the Federal Reserve when it says it expects “the strong performance of the economy will continue.” According to Nenner, it’s about to go the other way—down. Nenner explains, “Definitely, later this year, the interest rates are going lower, and it could be much lower. We did work on all kinds of economic indicators. Employment is not going to be as good anymore as they say. Inflation is not going to be as strong as they expect. The commodity index is breaking down. Copper cycles are down. Crude oil cycles are down. Soon, everybody is going to wake up again and say hey, what’s going on? It is very interesting how Wall Street is approaching all the indicators. . . . If you do your homework, everything actually looks like the economy is weakening.”

How bad is this financial cycle going to get? Nenner is not afraid to use the “D” word. Nenner contends, “Still, the Fed talks like this could continue forever, and it’s the longest expansion. So, why do you think this time is going to be different? If you start with this low of GDP and interest rates and then you get to recession or depression, then you definitely get into at least disinflation.”

So, does Nenner see an actual depression coming soon? Nenner says, “Yeah, I have been saying that for many years. . . . Yes, if you look at the . . . long term cycles. Yes, we are going to a hyperinflation, but first, we are going to have a deflation scare. . . . We have one more scare of deflation before we get into real big inflation problems. It is a matter of timing. So, it could be a couple of years away.”


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Nenner says, “Gold is going to enter a new bull market. The first cycle will bottom after the summer. $1,212 per ounce is our downside target. If it hangs around there and it’s after the summer, we will probably give it a buy signal. If that breaks, we will come up with a new low price target, but it definitely will enter a new bull market.

" Yes, we are going to a hyperinflation, but first, we are going to have a deflation scare"

No real sign of Inflation here yet (chart below) - but Oil is well off its Low

EUR vs. XLE (energy shares), GLD (Gold etf) & DBA (Grains-Agri.) ... update


WTI Crude Oil


Goldcorp Chairman Warns World is Running Out of Gold


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Harley Schlanger: Europe Is a Mess, Lost Century Ahead!

01:15 The perception of President Trump, good or bad?
07:30 Europe’s political and economic problems
12:20 Similarities between Hamilton, Lincoln and Kennedy
15:10 Is it game over for the Deep State?
19:40 Stock bubble, dead cat bounce

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Royal Gold (RGLD) tends to lead the Gold price - by a day or so

GDXJ vs. RGLD, GLD. UGL ... update


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"I think gold ultimately goes to $1184 but no lower. Then a rally to 1800 the likes we've never seen"

- Hector

It is possible.

One after another, I have seen decent set-ups for Lows ruined, as new lows are made, and the 4-6 month Cycle gets stretched.

Nenner wrote about $1212* - "if that's broken, and will target a New low"

We are getting very very close to Nenner's number.  And yours is not far below that.

As for the Rally to $1800, that would be great, but let's get a firm Low first.

What do you base your target on?  My own charts keep getting busted


*$1212 - we just touched that!

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I am basing support on the 2013 lows. It doesn't make sense for gold to get busted since it is a key reserve asset of the Euro.

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You cannot keep a good stock down - even when Gold is weak

McEwen Mining (MUX) - etc ... update : MUX alone : Last: $2.38 + 0.05


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Mueller's Trumped-up, Phony investigation exposed: "Nothing is there"

One FBI text message in Russia probe that should alarm every American

- John Solomon

For any American who wants an answer sooner, there are just five words, among the thousands of suggestive texts Page and Strzok exchanged, that you should read.

That passage was transmitted on May 19, 2017. “There’s no big there there,” Strzok texted.

The date of the text long has intrigued investigators: It is two days after Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein named special counsel Robert Mueller to oversee an investigation into alleged collusion between Trump and the Russia campaign.

Since the text was turned over to Congress, investigators wondered whether it referred to the evidence against the Trump campaign.

This month, they finally got the chance to ask. Strzok declined to say — but Page, during a closed-door interview with lawmakers, confirmed in the most pained and contorted way that the message in fact referred to the quality of the Russia case, according to multiple eyewitnesses.

The admission is deeply consequential. It means Rosenstein unleashed the most awesome powers of a special counsel to investigate an allegation that the key FBI officials, driving the investigation for 10 months beforehand, did not think was “there.”

> More: http://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/397902-opinion-one-fbi-text-message-in-russia-probe-should-alarm-every-american

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