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DrBubb's Diary - July 2018 Trading - v.114


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TOP of Page Header ... : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe :

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3d : ag : au : 10d-Gvs.UK : >News : DrRp : AJo : Fox : WRH : Arc : RenA : Rvd : FxN :

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BTC all data: 8yr: 3yr: 12mo: 6mo 1mo 10d10d 5d / SLV-lv

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NYXBT : 3yr : 3yr-377d : 1yr : 6mo :

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02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50) =6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/( -750 :11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/31: 0.6817 x$7091- +200 =4834 -050:$7041Jun(+403):4800/(+603+12.6%):
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
05/10: 0.6937 x$9365(+000) =6497 +268:$9,533Jun(+003):6613/(+003+0.05%):+0000:$9,633+568,-.000: 9.90

======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x$9,533= $2145: 4468: H:4726 / ($258) /.6937= $372 = 9.90 New High !

Bitcoin--- : $9,330 ---- @9330
Cardano-- : .00003628 : $ 0.33
Bitc. cash- : 0.1889 -- : $1,761.
Ethereum-: 0.08434 -  : $  787.
Litecoin-- : 0.01807 -- :  $  169.
Ripple----- : 0.0000913 : $ 0.85

crypto mining companies

Hive vs Atlas ... update /HIVE - etc, at 6/5/2018: C$1.12 ... Last 6-mos : RIOT: $7.80, ATLEF: $0.225

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A "useful" (?) look backwards in Time

OVER SIX YEARS AGO - we wondered if GLD / Gold had put in its Top

Dominic Frisby speaks with Jonathan Davis and Michael Hampton about gold

Geologic8
Seems like the "rubbish" in the podcast was far more accurate than the negative comments from the Gold bulls - who can only see things one way. No wonder those sorts of inflexible "cultists" lose money over time.
 
The Podcast was done in early March 2012, and you can see what happened after the $100 drop
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Gold - long term

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GLD / Gold etf - since inception

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Gold - the last three years : GLD-4yr :

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JUN 6, 2017

1496670758865-Screen+Shot+2017-06-05+at+

If we use the 1980 formula to measure inflation—the year gold peaked—you can see the current price is near all-time inflation-adjusted lows. In fact, gold is selling at roughly the same level as the early 1970s, when it was illegal to own in the US!

You can also see that the inflation-adjusted high would be a whopping $11,253 per ounce. Gold may or may not get to 5 figures, but this shows it certainly could if it repeated the performance from the 1970s. This data tells us that not only is gold dramatically undervalued at current prices, but the potential upside is enormous. If the gold price were to match the return from the past mania, it would have to rise 9 times from current levels!

Gold (GLD) vs. Resource related etfs, Energy shares (XLE) and Agricultural-Grains (DBA) ... from 2009 : all : 3yr : 6mo :

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On Silver's correlation with HK China & Property shares

LOOK WHAT HAPPENED - haha! /

The "Cluster" of prices came together, all but one

"SLV correlation is better than with HSI" (historically, I had noted)

HK-2823 etc ... update

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UPDATE - HK2823 & HK12 fell to the level of SLV - as HK10 got cheaper; now almost 35% cheaper

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Sym. Stock -- : 07/04/17- Pct. : 07/05/18- Pct. : change :
2823-China50 : $12.28 (100.%) : $12.44 (100.%) : + 1.30%
SLV--Silver Etf : $15.30 (126.%) : $15.03 (121.%) :  - 1.76%
HK12-Hender. : $40.00 (326.%) : $40.95 (329.%) : + 1.02%
HK10-HangLG : $31.30 (255.%) : $21.20 (100.%) : -32.27%
HSI-- HS index : 25,389 (2068x) : 27,985 (100.%) : +10.22%

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Singapore Property Stocks Hammered

Singapore’s renewed clampdown on speculative property demand sent real estate stocks reeling on Friday, as analysts predicted the end of a nascent home price rebound and the deflation of a buoyant market for collective sales.

The tightened rules, rolled out a day after the central bank noted “euphoria” in the property market, sharply increase buyers’ stamp duties for entities such as developers. Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index dropped as much as 2.5 percent Friday as property developers and banks led declines, with City Developments Ltd. and UOL Group Ltd. sliding more than 16 percent each.

City Developments Ltd ... SG:CDL- update :

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UOL Group Ltd. ... SG:UOL ... chart : 5yrs :

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As major property markets from New York to Sydney show signs of cooling, Singapore and Hong Kong prices are on a tear, causing unease among local policy makers. In Singapore, a sudden rebound in speculative demand, stoked by record land bids and redevelopment deals, threatened to undo years of carefully implemented curbs that had given the city-state an edge over Hong Kong in quality of living.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/singapore-steps-up-property-cooling-measures-after-strong-gains

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FTSE Straits Times Index / SG:STI ... All Data :

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Singapore’s Stock Market Correction is Here: What Investors Should Do Now

Chin Hui Leong

Shares of property developers fell sharply after the Singapore government announced new measures to cool down a heated property market.

The new set of rules include higher stamp duties and tighter requirements around the loan-to-value limits on residential property purchases. Before the implementation, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) had warned of “euphoria” and “excessive exuberance” in the property market.

As of 10:45 am today, shares of City Developments Limited (SGX: C09) and UOL Group Limited (SGX: U14) had fallen 15.8% and 12.5%, respectively. CapitaLand Limited‘s (SGX: C31) shares also dived 4.1%. Singapore’s banks, which provide housing loans, were not spared either. DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05) fell almost 3% while its peers Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (SGX: O39), and United Overseas Bank Ltd (SGX: U11) dropped 2.6% and 3.3%, respectively.

As a whole, the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) fell by over 2%, pushing Singapore’s stock market deeper into a market correction.

We Meet Again, Market Correction

A correction is often defined as a fall of 10% or more.

As it stands, Singapore’s stock market is down 12.4% from its high. The sharp decline sounds like a horrible thing to happen, but it also quite a common occurrence in the Singapore stock market. The diagram below shows the maximum decline from peak-to-trough for the Straits Times Index for each year between 1993 and 2016, a period of 24 years.

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Here are some odds to chew on: Of the 24-year period above, all but three years saw a 10% decline or more. To simplify, nine out of every 10 years saw a more than 10% fall from peak-to-trough. That’s a high probability.

With that in mind, I would argue that investors should get comfortable with market corrections as it is likely to happen again in the future.

However, what should investors do in response?

> MORE: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/singapore-stock-market-correction-investors-035544020.html
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WEEKLY UPDATE


==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/08 :  06/15 :  06/22 :   06/29 :  07/06 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 : 1270.7 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 123.01 : 121.34 : 120.34 : 118.65 : 118.86 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 278.19 : 277.13 : 274.74 : 271.28 : 275.42 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2734.6 : 2779.0 : 2754.9 : 2718.4 : 2759.8 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 213.3%: 217.4%: 216.8% : 216.7%: 219.8% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $76.90: $74.17 : $75.15 : $75.94 : $75.67 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $65.74 : $65.06 : $68.58 : $74.15 : $73.80 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r19.82 : r-19.65 : r-18.58 : r16.92 : r-17.02 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.890 : $3.020 : $2.940 : $2.920 : $2.880 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $3.300 : $3.140 : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.820 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 520.00 : 499.50 : 504.25 : 501.25 : 515.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 377.75 : 361.25 : 357.25 : 371.25 : 373.00 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.04 : 196.24 : 197.53 : 200.39 : 198.05 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.77 : $18.46 : $18.21 : $18.03 : $17.91 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  9.38%  :  9.41% :  9.22% :  8.99% :  9.04% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : R-4.097 : r-4.018 : r-4.127 : r-4.212 : r-4.121 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $93.54 : $94.45 : $94.18 : $94.47 : $93.97 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 119.53 : 120.38 : 120.53 : 121.72 : 122.75 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 : 1270.7 : 1254.5 : 1255.8 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.571 : r-1.543 : r-1.54E : r-1.532 : r-1.565 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE  : 828.78 : 828.76 : 825. E- : 819.04 : 802.24 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.17 : $22.15 : $21.69 : $22.06 : $22.68 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.36 : $22.23 : $22.18 : $22.31 :$22.61 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.78 : $32.71 : $32.78 : $32.70 : $33.50 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $30.21 : $29.57 : $29.30 : $28.88 : $29.45 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : r1.914 : R1.910 : R1.890 : R1.910 : R1.953 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.78 : $15.60 : $15.50 : $15.15 : $15.08 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.780 : 16.480 : 16.460 : 16.200 : 16.070 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $32.56 : $30.37 : $28.78 : $28.75 : $29.31 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $46.33 : $45.23 : $43.92 : $43.33 : $43.41 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 3067.1 : 3021.9 : 2889.8 : 2847.4 : 2799.8 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7740.7 : 7529.5 : 7063.2 : 7193.7 : 7180.8 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $28.08 : $27.47 : $27.07 : $26.59 : $26.67 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 166.52 : 167.81 : 167.82 : 163.77 : 168.25 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1686 : 0.1637 : 0.1613 : 0.1624 : 0.1585 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $7,620 : $6,545 : $6,138 : $5,883  : $6,564 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  : 04/27 :  06/01 :   06/08 :  06/15 :   06/22 :  06/29 :  07/06 :

RATIO : Energy Stocks (XLE) -to Agri-Grain etf (DBA)

gMmE0h1.png

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Coeur Mining (CDE) Mining has moved up MORE than Silver (SLV)

CDE - Last: $ 8.21 / versus: SLV : $ 15.08 = Ratio: 54.4%

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Ratio : CDE -to-SLV : 54.4%, up from recent XX%

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A few weeks ago, I sold SLV calls and AG calls, to buy calls on CDE, SIL, and shares of FRES.L/

With the shift in relative value, it may be a good time to look at shifting back into SLV (or AGQ) Calls

 

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China Threatened By "Vicious Circle Of Panic Selling" From Marketwide Margin Call

Two weeks ago, when commenting on the PBOC's latest required reserve ratio cut, we pointed out that one of the more prominent risks facing the Chinese stock market, and potentially explaining why the Shanghai Composite simply can't catch a bid during the recent rout, is the risk of a wave of margin calls resulting in forced selling of stocks pledged as collateral for loans.

The pledging of shares as loan collateral - a practice that has gotten increasingly more popular over the years - has been especially prevalent among smaller companies as we observed in February and initially, last June. Unlike in the U.S., where institutional shareholders are a big market presence, private Chinese firms are often controlled by a major shareholders, who often own more than half of company. These big stakes are the most convenient tool for such big shareholders to raise their own funds.

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KITCO

Gold Popping Higher Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz
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US Equity Futures Tumble As US Readies $200 Billion China Tariff List

Just when you thought it was safe to BTFTrade War Dip, a headline hits to remind you that President Trump is anything but done with China.

Bloomberg reports that President Donald Trump is preparing to release a list of an additional $200 billion in Chinese products to be hit with tariffs, according to two people familiar with the matter.

"The list could be released as soon as Tuesday, and likely this week", according to Bloomberg sources. The publication of the list starts a weeks-long process that includes a public-comment period and hearings.

The potential unveiling comes as Trump is stil considering imposing duties on another $16 billion in Chinese goods, following a public hearing later this month. China, of course, as vowed to retaliate tit-for-tat and dollar-for-dollar to all future US tariffs.

The immediate result: Dow futures plunge 200 points in the blink of an eye.

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Gran Columbian Gold - is the correction finished yet?

GCM.t ... update :

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Emerging Markets rolling over?

EEM / iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

... All : 10yr  : 5yr :

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Silver is having another bad day - is back retesting support

Close: Silver: $15.82 -0.27 : SIL: $28.48 -0.93 / SLV: $14.86 -0.26 = r-1.917 -0.28 -1.44%

SLV / silver etf ... update : SIL :

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SIL-etc ... 10d / SIL: $28.48 -0.93 / SLV: $14.86 -0.26 = r-1.917 -1.44%

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"IT's THE DOLLAR... debasing of the Chinese Yuan has hurt Gold"

It’s a Battleground For Silver Prices (near $16)

“Silver, it’s battling. It’s a heck of a battle down here against 16 bucks,” said Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures.
Silver has recently come out of a net short position, according to the Commitment of Traders Report, and is now in a net long position. This means that gold, and not silver, is due to be the leader to the upside, Baruch told Kitco News.
“[Silver] is very constructive around $16 [an ounce], I think it will follow gold higher. One thing I am worried about with silver is are you going to see some of the base metals, like copper, which lost 20 cents over the last two weeks...is that going to hold silver back on that rip when gold makes it,” Baruch said.
On gold, Baruch said that major currency headwinds have been keeping gold under pressure, despite the prospect of a global trade war breaking out. In particular, the dollar has strengthened on the back of a weakened euro and Chinese renminbi.
“You’ve got to keep an eye on these currencies,” he said, “I think gold will find its path higher, it will take a little bit of time as we work through this trade war, and what China’s going to do with their currency upon this war.”
Baruch said that gold investors should consider buying put spreads to protect the down side and selling calls against long futures.
“My belief here is that you’re going to see $1,300 retested in the next 30 to 60 days,” he added. (show less)

 

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Flattening Yield Curve Portends Recession

Ed Yardeni: That flawless predictor of recession and a bear market is wrong this time MarketWatch

xx

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KITCO articles

Gold Holds Steady Near 1-Wk Low As Dollar Firms Against Yen Reuters

Gold, Silver Hit Hard By Sell-Off in Raw Commodity Sector Kitco News

Gold Has Not Entered A New Bear Market - ScotiaMocatta Kitco News

Peak Gold Triggers Flows Into Gold Stocks - Frank Holmes Kitco Video News

Gold prices held steady on Thursday, close to a one-week low hit in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen, amid an intensifying trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold held steady at $1,241.20 an ounce at 0100 GMT. The yellow metal slipped 1 percent and hit an over one-week low at $1,240.89 on Wednesday.

* U.S. gold futures for August delivery were 0.2 percent lower at $1,241.60 an ounce.

* The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was flat at 94.733. The dollar rose to 112.12 yen, close to a six-month peak touched on Wednesday.

* European Central Bank policymakers are split over when the ECB might raise interest rates next year, with some saying an increase is possible as early as July 2019 and others ruling out a move until autumn, according to several sources.

* The fact that investors are siphoning money out of stocks is not helping gold, with the safe-haven asset suffering as people wary of a global trade war flock to the U.S. dollar.

* U.S. fund investors pulled $1 billion* from commodity funds, including those invested in the precious metal, the largest withdrawals since July 2017, Investment Company Institute (ICI) data showed on Wednesday.

* Russia produced 92.56 tonnes of gold in the first five months of 2018, up from 90.39 tonnes in the same period in 2017, the finance ministry said on Wednesday

. . . Investment capital is flowing* into gold stocks and Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Investors, said that this may be due to peak gold. “What we’re witnessing now is [money] going into gold stock ETFs,” Holmes told Kitco News.
Holmes said that there is currently no breakthrough technology like there was for fracking in the mining industry, so gold production is likely to continue to plateau and eventually decline, according to the theory of peak gold.
He added that investors are likely to see gold stocks move up as more capital continues to flow in, which is usually a precursor to the bullion rallying

==

*An interested contradiction there - they must be talking about investment flows over different periods

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SPY Back up to Resistance near $280 - where next?

SPY / etf for S&P 500 ... update

8mSM77y.gif

LOW volume on this rise

 

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"This Is A Very Scary Scenario": Restructuring Legend Warns Of Coming "Perfect Storm"

Jul 12

Two months ago, we brought to your several very concerning quotes from some of the nation's top restructuring bankers, of which the most dire warning came from Bill Derrough, the former head of restructuring at Jefferies and the current co-head of recap and restructuring at Moelis who admitted that: "I do think we're all feeling like where we were back in 2007. There was sort of a smell in the air; there were some crazy deals getting done. You just knew it was a matter of time."

What he is referring to is not just the overall level of exuberance, but the lunacy taking place in the bond market, where CLOs are being created at a record pace, where CCC-rated junk bonds can't be sold fast enough, and where the a yield-starved generation of investors who have never seen a fair and efficient market without Fed backstops, means that the coming bond-driven crash will be spectacular.

 
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Doug Casey | Talks Cryptocurrencies, Precious Metals and Novels

Maurice Jackson: I’d like to hear what you’re doing to prepare for the bad times, but I have a two-fold question here first. How much of an effect is the trade war having on the space and how is the natural resource space impacted in the long term when First World nations participate in a trade war?

Doug Casey: First of all, the trade war, of course, is something that has been set off by Mr. Trump. I think I ought to make a brief comment on Trump. In general, I support him. Why? Because he’s not a card-carrying member of the Deep State, number one. Number two, he’s never been in politics before. That’s good. He’s been in business his whole life. He tends to think like a business guy, not like a political guy.

I support Trump for those reasons. I support him for the fact that he’s not Hillary and he’s not a Democrat, because the Democratic Party at this point has just jumped the shark. It’s turned into a cesspool of every bad economic and political idea that you can imagine. In fact, Trump is rolling back a lot of regulations. It’s quite amazing. These are all good things.

But, and here’s the big but, he doesn’t have a philosophical core. In other words, he’s somebody that has never, I don’t think, has ever studied economics or history, so he basically does what seems like a good idea at the time instead of acting according to any principles. I hope his playing chicken with the Chinese and the Europeans doesn’t turn into a trade war because the way the human race increases its standard of living and its net wealth is by trading with people that do one thing better, trade with people that do other things better. It’s a question of marginal utility. He’s really playing with fire.

The answer to the question is if it turns into a trade war, and the Chinese are very proud, and Trump doesn’t want to feel like he’s ever going to lose anything, this could be a genuine catastrophe because of the very fragile state of the world economy. That’s my answer.

I’m on tenterhooks because it’s completely unpredictable what these political types are going to do. The people who are in governments in China, the U.S., and Europe, all over the world, they’re not the best and brightest. It’s the opposite. They’re power-seekers. They’re busybodies. They’re people who actually think they have a right to control other people. I find it very scary. They’re capable of anything.

Maurice Jackson: It seems to me that Mr. Trump could benefit from one of the presentations that you conducted at Jayant Bhandari’s Capitalism and Morality conference and/or he should read a book called “Economics in One Lesson,” by Henry Hazlitt. You had referenced us going through the storm, the eye at the moment. What are you doing to prepare yourself should the events come to fruition?

Doug Casey: I got involved in the cryptocurrencies about a year ago, actually, which was late in the game. It took me a while to understand the value proposition of bitcoin and many clones, but they were very, very good to me in the last half of last year until I sold almost all my position in December. I didn’t buy at the bottom, but I got lucky in top of the market.

I’m still involved in them for a number of reasons. I’m optimistic about the future of them. There are 2,000 of them right now. They’re like junior mining stocks. Most of them are either frauds or losers.

But I think the area is going to do well, especially as these cryptocurrencies spread to the Third World, countries in Africa, South America and Asia, where the currencies are only good within that country. I think that increasingly, and we’re talking about two-thirds of humanity here, can only save in their worthless local currencies, kwachas, or pulas, things of that nature. More of these people are going to get involved in bitcoin and its clones in the future because they’re transferrable internationally. You don’t have to use one of these bankrupt banks in any of these countries.

I actually like the cryptocurrencies. I’m doing that, to answer your question. I continue to buy gold coins. Not so much silver. I own a lot of silver, but it’s very bulky, believe it or not, so I continue to buy gold coins.

Incidentally, I buy the small gold coins, things like British sovereigns, or Swiss and German 10 and 20 mark pieces from the 19th century. The reason I do that is all of these governments’ customs services are on the lookout for things that look like one-ounce gold coins, personal experience traveling in Africa and South America. But the small coins look like small change: nickels and dimes. Who cares? I’m just buying the small coins.

Those things, I’m buying, speculating in junior mining companies, which are very cheap right now. It’s number three. Number four, as big as your economic risks are today, I think your political risks are even bigger; I continue to diversify my assets internationally. Those are the four things that I’m doing.

But I might say a fifth thing, which is continuing to look for entrepreneurial activities, goods and services that I can supply to the market that people will be willing to pay for because those things are of more benefit to them than their currency. I think that probably sums it up.

. . .

Of the four metals, which do you see ready for a breakout? It doesn’t have to be immediately, but of the four, which one do you see?

Doug Casey: Silver is the cheapest and the most volatile of these four metals. For capital gains, I’d go for silver, but silver is only worth, what, $16 an ounce, in that area. It has pretty low unit value. It’s rather inconvenient because it takes many, many, many pounds to be worth much money. Now still, as a speculation, I think it’s the place to be.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2018/07/12/doug-casey-talks-cryptocurrencies-precious-metals-and-novels#F3hl74iPLD4FDUAs.99

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Gold still looking for a Low

Here's UGLD - "Ultra Gold" - the 3X Bull etf ... update : Last: $ 9.20 - could open 2% lower

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Are we AT PEAK GOLD PRODUCTION ?

“We were all talking about how production was going to increase every year. I think those days are probably gone,” said Nick Holland, CEO of South Africa’s largest gold producer Gold Fields.

He was echoed by Rudy Fronk, chairman and CEO of Seabridge Gold, who noted that “Peak gold is the new reality in the gold business with reserves now being mined much faster than they are being replaced.”

According to Kevin Dushnisky, president of mining giant Barrick Gold, “Falling grades and production levels, a lack of new discoveries, and extended project development timelines are bullish for the medium and long-term gold price outlook.”

The biggest warning comes from mining executive Ian Telfer, chairman of Goldcorp. In an interview with Financial Post, he said: “If I could give one sentence about the gold mining business… it’s that in my life, gold produced from mines has gone up pretty steadily for 40 years. Well, either this year it starts to go down, or next year it starts to go down, or it’s already going down… We’re right at peak gold here.”

One of the most well-respected and knowledgeable mining experts in the world, Pierre Lassonde, also says we’re reaching ‘peak gold’.


Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#3XWxyBqHeXkv4lAA.99
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GLD - price vs volume ... update : GDX : GDXJ :

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New low made on MUCH lower volume (5.3M) - versus 12 M+ on recent low

: GDXJ :

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GDXJ is now at a HIGHER level than when Gold made the first Low

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RZZ / Abitbi near record highs (despite weak Gold prices)

RZZ (and GZZ too! which I own) are Massively outperforming GLD / Gold and GDXJ

RZZ - etc ... From Beg.2015 : with GZZ.v :

GZZ.v: C$0.29 +125%, AEM: $45.52 +65%, GDXJ: $32.53 +62%, GLD: $117.61 +0%, AUY: $2.91 -27%

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RZZ-etc w/ GZZ.v ... from Beg. 2016 :

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RZZ was up 6.3% (+C$0.62)  on Friday on relatively "high" volume: 29,256+ shares x $10.44 = C$305.2k

The ratio continues to slide, staying under a Downtrend : GZZ/RZZ: 0.29/10.44= 2.78%

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GLD / Gold vs possible inflation bellwethers : XLE (energy), DBA (grains/food) ... update : 2yr : 6mo : 10d :

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GLD : turnDate : $-GLD- : $-XLE-  ( Pct. ) : $-DBA-  ( Pct. )
low - 11/12/08 : $70.00 : $44.60 (63.7 %) : $24.61 (35.2 %)
high- 08/22/11 : 184.59 : $62.73 (34.0 %) : $33.30 (18.0 %)
low - 12/17/15 : 100.50 : $60.38 (60.1 %) : $20.17 (20.1 %)
high- 04/11/18 : 128.11 : $70.64 (55.1 %) : $18.90 (14.8 %)
XLE
start 01/04/05 : $42.74 : $34.80 (81.4 %) : --N/A- (NA.0 %)
start 02/24/05 : $43.33 : $43.11 (99.5 %) : --N/A- (NA.0 %)
high- 05/20/08 : $90.90 : $90.39 (99.4 %) : $36.30 (39.9 %)
low - 03/05/09 : $91.99 : $38.37 (41.7 %) : $23.02 (25.0 %)
high- 06/23/14 : 126.85 : 101.29 (79.9 %) : $27.80 (21.9 %)
low - 01/20/16 : 105.37 : $51.77 (49.1 %) : $19.79 (18.8 %)
high- 05/21/18 : 122.48 : $78.91 (64.4 %) : $18.99 (15.5 %)

Ratio : XLE-to-GLD

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Ratio : DBA-to-GLD

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