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DrBubb's Diary - June 2018 Trading - v.113

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au / Btc / 8yr: 12mo : 5m : 2m : 1m : 25 10 5d 2d / spiral

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC 1m 2d : SLV-lv



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"Are you getting into silver?" - Hector

I am (getting into Silver)...

SLV versus EUR & Gold etf's ... update


- but more into Silver shares, which for some reason are still weak -esp. outside the US & Canada

Here's SLV versus KoreaZinc, FRES.L & POLY.L ... update


GLD / Gold... weekly-chart - is not doing much yet


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I was asked to look at this, by a Canadian friend

BCE / BCE Inc. (NYSE) - all-data : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo / used to be Bell Canada
arrow -0.3196
Percent Change:
P/E Ratio:
52 Week Range:
41.01 to 49.06
My view is...
That support level below $40, near $39, is likely to be tested

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Silver is down 29 cents, with a $17  drop in Gold





That Silver breakout may be getting unwound after recent weakness in EUR & strength in USD

EUR etc ... update


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I haven't bought silver yet, but after seeing today's move I'm very reluctant to get in to anything anytime soon.

Disappointed to see gold breaking the lower trendline, we'll have to see if it holds.

Are you still bullish DrB?

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" Are you still bullish DrB? " - H.

EUR-vs-SLV etc ... update : SIL-vs-FRES :


SIL-vs-SLV ... update


Possibly SLV or SIL this could be a great buy here, given the big selloff. But I won't rush now*

It should make sense now to wait a bit, to see if there is a follow-through in today's very heavy sell-off.

The LESSON here seems to be that Silver could NOT lead the market higher on its own.

And the falling Silver shares, like Fresnillo & Korea Zinc - and the EUR itself, were a better predictor of the market,

than the rising SLV.


*I was lucky, in a way,  I had some SLV calls expirying Friday, and I rolled them into (cheaper) SIL calls,

and Sold some AG/FR.t calls, replacing them with an outright long in FRES.L - so I was less exposed to today's selloff.

Since FRES.: pays a dividend, & I am buying it at below GBP 12, I see it as a better Long term hold & plan to buy more.

I was planning to buy some CDE calls today, but decided to wait until next week (at least)...

CDE / Coeur Mining ... 12mo



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KITCO Articles

OPINION: Gold Bulls Whipsawed  Kitco Commentary

We have the U.S. Federal Reserve taking its first step toward an early exit from its balance sheet reduction. The central bank increased the rates it pays on reserves by 0.2 percentage points Wednesday. This all comes after it raised interest rates by 25 basis point and signaled two more hikes later this year.
So what did this all mean for gold…just when it was shaping up to be an incredible week for the metal, hitting a 4-week high…a reversal of fate awaited.
. . . Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, is also optimistic on gold in the near term, especially as the Trump administration approved $50 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports. It is expected that China will again retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, with agriculture products in the crosshairs.
“Everything right now is going against gold, but I don’t think you want to be short the metal in this environment,” he said. “I don’t see one major catalyst that will drive gold higher but there are a lot of little factors, and it won’t take much to shift the negative sentiment in the gold market.”
Gold Is Down But Not Out
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, said that his bias for gold in the near-term is down as the market has been unable to hold gains above its 200-day moving average, which is around $1,308 an ounce.
However, he described the gold market as dull because ultimately he sees the market trapped in its well-established range. While the hawkish monetary policy is weighing on prices, global market financial uncertainty is providing some support.
“Gold is trapped between the Fed’s desires to raise interest rates but also by its focus on global trade and economic issues,” he said. “If the Fed becomes really concerned about trade issues that would be very supportive for gold.”
Weinberg said that there is enough uncertainty in financial markets to shift sentiment in gold to a more positive tone quickly. He added that rising inflation and growing concern over the global economy makes gold the best safe-haven asset.
“You definitely don’t want to hold equities in this market as volatility picks up,” he said. “You also don’t want to hold bonds as inflation rises either.”
Lawler said that gold will struggle until there is a definite shift in financial markets, which means a weaker U.S. dollar and weaker equity markets.

Silver Not Done Rallying; Look For 8% Upside From Current Levels Kitco News

According to Baker’s analysis, July silver futures initiated a new PriceCount when it closed above $16.865 twice this past week.

The first upside target, according to this PriceCount, is $17.437 an ounce and the second objective is $17.922.

Silver has been trading in a narrow range since January 2018 and has broken past $17 an ounce for the first time since April on Wednesday.

Baker noted that from here, upside potential remains intact as long as July futures do not trade below $16.19. The comments come as silver has struggled to hold on to its gains as gold futures fell to a six-month low Friday. July silver futures settled the week at $16.48 an ounce, down almost 5% from its highs earlier in the week.

“The $17.45 zone appears to be key resistance as this was a previous PriceCount that was already met,” he said in a report.

Baker recommends trading July silver 1,000-ounce futures (YIN19) at $16.75 or better.


“Place sell stops at $16.30. Take half profits at $17.40 and then move stops up to break even. Exit remaining positions at $17.90,” the report said.

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Is There a Straw That Broke the Camel’s Back?

Gold is trading under major pressure today, with August futures currently down $25.90, and is fixed at $1282.30. This sharp decline coincides with a major selloff of many commodities. Sharp declines in oil, grains, and other commodities defined trading activity in the futures markets today.


The sharply lower precious metals pricing is in contrast to recent activity in which both gold and silver were moving in tandem with an extremely strong US dollar.

The major event which occurred today was that President Donald Trump announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. Chinese imports that contain “industrial significant technologies” will be charged a 25% tariff.

Although it has been widely regarded that the initiation of tariffs would raise the level of concern in terms of the geopolitical climate, which in turn would be bullish for the safe haven asset gold, this is not what traders witnessed as the outcome today.

If today’s $25 drop in gold prices was not in reaction to the announcement by President Trump, then what was the cause to today’s selloff in gold?

One plausible explanation to today’s gold selloff is that it was a result of a combination of factors. We have just ended a week that began with four major events beginning with the G7 meeting last week which resulted in discord between the United States and other member nations.

This was followed by the summit between the United States and North Korea, the conclusion of this month’s FOMC meeting, and an announcement by the European central bank that they will soon end their quantitative easing monetary policy.

The announcement by the European central bank caused a surge in US dollar value specifically against the euro, the other of events of this week resulted in a tepid reaction in terms of gold pricing.

The fact of the matter is that this week has been ripe with exceedingly important events that will affect the fabric of the global economy for years to come. However, it was the announcement by the European central bank that could have been the final straw that broke the camel’s back.

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Weak EUR , Strongish USD

With financial troubles in Italy, & political troubles in Germany : "Merkel gone in a week?"

EUR vs Gold ... update



Gold in EUR is not looking weak! -2.49% -28.10 to Eur 1,101.40


Silver in EUR : -4.74% -0.71 to Eur14.20




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INVERSIONS Happen ! (& crashes maybe 1-2 years after)

"The Global Bond Curve Just Inverted": Why JPM Thinks A Market Crash May Be Imminent


The last time the global bond index turned negative was in 2007 ahead of the global financial crisis; before then it turned very negative in late 1990s also, just before the bursting of the dot com bubble...

... we already knew that the market had priced in an inversion in the short-end of the curve - something remarkable happened last week: the entire global bond curve just inverted for the first time since just before the financial crisis erupted.

... What are the practical implications? Well, in a word, global investors - those for whom Treasury flows are fungible and have exposure to the entire world's "safe securities" - now find themselves in inversion.

In other words, with the Fed having pushed the yield on short dated 1-3 year US government bonds to above 2.5%, global bond investors who, by construction, hold more US government bonds in the 1-3 year bucket and more non-US government bonds in the longer-dated buckets, finds themselves with a situation where extending maturities at a global level provides no extra yield compensation.

And the punchline:

This means that while at the local level bond investors are still demanding a premium for longer-dated bonds, at an aggregate level – abstracting from segmentation and currency hedging issues – bond investors globally are no longer demanding such a premium.

What this means is that a decade after the last such inversion, bond investors globally no longer require extra premium for holding longer-dated bonds vs short-dated bonds, something that happens rarely, e.g. when investors have little confidence in the trajectory of the economy, or they think monetary policy tightening is overdone or they see a high risk of a correction in risky markets such as equities.


MK13 inosent Sat, 06/16/2018 - 14:05 Permalink

Don't ruin someone doomsday scenario!!!

Even better, this global yield curve inversion has about 2 year head start of market corrections. Last 2 times that has happened the market was 20% higher, with some bigly ups.

Yeah, go for it, short or put it, nothing produces an up like a short squeeze (look at TSLA stock last week).

mkkby Mikeyyy Sat, 06/16/2018 - 19:03 Permalink

Fake news again by ZH.  JPM said nothing about a crash.  Only that investors MAY have lost confidence.  Pretty milquetoast, yet ZH screams CRASH.

The average ZH tard doesn't even read the article, and is too stupid to realize the titles are click bait trash.  Imbeciles, conspiracy theorists, queers and political hacks are all that's left here.

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Nomi Prins: The Central Banking Heist That Put The World At Risk


Her main target in the new work is “quantitative easing” – described by Prins as “a conjuring trick” in which “a central bank manufactures electronic money, then injects it into private banks and financial markets”. Over the last decade, she tells me when we meet in London, “under the guise of QE, central bankers have massively overstepped their traditional mandates, directing the flow of epic sums of fabricated money, without any checks or balances, towards the private banking sector”.

Since QE began, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, “the US Federal Reserve has produced a massive $4.5 trillion of conjured money, out of a worldwide QE total of around $21 trillion”, says Prins. The combination of ultra-low interest rates and vast monetary expansion, she explains, has caused “speculation to rage... much as a global casino would be abuzz if everyone gambled using everyone else’s money”.

Much of this new spending power, though, has remained “inside the system”, with banks shoring up their balance sheets. “So lending to ordinary firms and households has barely grown as a result of QE,” says Prins, “nor have wages or prosperity for most of the world’s population”. Instead, “the banks have gone on an asset-buying spree”, she explains, getting into her stride, “with the vast flow of QE cash from central banks to private banks ensuring endless opportunities for market manipulation and asset bubbles – driven by government support”.

Prins describes “the power grab we’ve seen by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other central banks”. Using QE, she argues, “these illusionists have altered the nature of the financial system and orchestrated a de facto heist that has enabled the most dominant banks and central bankers to run the world”.

. . . I put to Prins the conventional wisdom: there was no alternative to QE, and without it, the global banking system would have collapsed in 2008, causing untold economic and political damage. While she accepts there was a need for immediate post-crisis action, she argues the time for emergency measures has now long since passed. “If financial markets so much as wobble, the world’s leading central banks, between them, do more QE,” she says. “The insiders maintain the status quo of subsidies to the financial system – but there is no world war, aliens are not invading our planet, this is totally unjustified.”

Prins says that QE has been “a massive deceit and a huge factor in driving inequality – a dedicated effort by institutions with the ability to create money, deciding that it doesn’t go to ordinary people”. While it was sold “as a massive trickle-down programme, helping the incomes of regular households, the benefits have been focused at the very top”.

Stock markets have benefitted, she acknowledges, “but a mere 10% of Americans own 85% of the market”. Prins also argues that low interest rates have harmed most Americans. “We need to normalise the rate environment, so ordinary people get some kind of return on their pensions and savings,” she says.

QE and low rates, says Prins, have also caused “a debt explosion” – as not only have governments taken on more borrowing but financial institutions have too, keen to boost the scale of their investments in QE-driven markets that look like a one-way bet. US government debt has soared from $9 trillion to over $20 trillion since the financial crisis, Prins observes. “And public and private debt combined amount to a staggering 225% of global GDP – much of it accumulated since the financial crisis,” she says.

“The next financial crisis will be sparked by a debt failure somewhere – then this QE bubble will pop very quickly,” Prins predicts. “And when the new crisis comes, rates are already low and we have little in the way of fiscal ammunition, so mitigation will be very tough – and it will be ordinary people who suffer the most”.

it is in the US where the bulk of the narrative is set and it is there the arguments Prins makes will be most keenly read. The Federal Reserve has just lifted interest rates by a quarter point, and signalled that two more increases are likely in 2018. As the world’s most important central bank continues the long, gradual march away from emergency measures, and with the ECB also committed soon to ending QE, the warnings in this important book about extent of today’s asset price bubbles, and the role central banks have played in causing them, are about to be severely tested.

“What we’ve witnessed, since 2008, is the unbridled ability of the so-called people at the top to implement socialism for the banks,” Prins tells me. “If anyone had said we are going to give $21 trillion to the global banking sector, it would never have happened – so we’ve had a backdoor process instead, under the pretense it would help ordinary people.”

Leaning forward for the first time, Prins ups the ante. “Well, real people don’t believe that – and they’ll believe it even less as and when we have another crash, a crash off the back of ten years of emergency measures that were supposed to fix the system.”

> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-16/nomi-prins-central-banking-heist-put-world-risk


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Here Is The Stunning Reason Why Treasury Yields Blew Out In April


Russian liquidated half, or a massive $47.4 billion, of its US Treasury holdings in one month.

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E-Estonia experiment: One Card. One Life


"Every has an e-ID... and uses it for everything"

"this card is mandatory... 98% have it"

MP3 : http://media.blubrry.com/rbn/s/content.blubrry.com/rbn/stream_2018-06-16_185956.mp3

"there is almost NO anonymity online"

Oh, and the government OWNS your DNA

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Gold Cycle has still not turned up

GLD / Gold ... update


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==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/02 :  03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/08 : 06/15 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1323.4 :  1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.39 : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 123.01 : 121.34 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 269.08 : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 278.19 : 277.13 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2762.1 : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2734.6 : 2779.0 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 203.4% : 199.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 213.3% : 217.4% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $66.95: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $76.90 : $74.17 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.25 : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $65.74 : $65.06 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r21.61 : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r-19.82 : r-19.65 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.690 : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.890 : $3.020 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.120 : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $3.300 : $3.140 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 500.00 : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 520.00 : 499.50 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 385.25 : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 377.75 : 361.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 194.12 : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.04 : 196.24 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $19.39: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.77 : $18.46 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.90% :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  9.38%  :  9.41% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r3.453 :  r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : R-4.097 : r-4.018 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.91 : $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $93.54 : $94.45 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 118.35 : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 119.53 : 120.38 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1323.4 : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.587 : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.571 : r-1.543 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 833.98 :  846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE  : 828.78 : 828.76 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $19.32 : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.17 : $22.15 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.49 : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.36 : $22.23 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $31.73 : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.78 : $32.71 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $29.95 : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $30.21 : $29.57 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.924 : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : r1.914 : R1.910 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.56 : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.78 : $15.60 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.470 : 16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.780 : 16.480 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $28.95 : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $32.56 : $30.37 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.13 : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $46.33 : $45.23 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3254.5 : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 3067.1 : 3021.9 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8458.6 : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7740.7 : 7529.5 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.44 : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $28.08 : $27.47 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 152.35 : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 166.52 : 167.81 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1867 : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1686 : 0.1637 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 11,117 : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $7,620 : $6,545 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/02 :  03/29  : 04/27 :  06/01 :  06/08 : 06/15 :


PH Stock Index / PH:PSEI ... update



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Back to Pre-Obama, Pre-Recession levels...

GALLUP: Satisfaction with US direction highest since '05...

  • Satisfaction rate of 38% is highest since September 2005
  • Second month in a row above 35%, also for the first time since 2005
  • Satisfaction rises among Republicans and independents, not among Democrats

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Thirty-eight percent of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States today, similar to last month's 37% satisfaction rate but marking the numerical high since a 39% reading in September 2005.

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Tech stock still running ahead of SPY

SPY vs GOOG, AAPL, FB ... update :


The Tech Bubble WILL BURST: That’s Not Just Any Analyst But Morgan Stanley Sounding The Alarm


Josh Sigurdson talks with author and economic analyst John Sneisen about recent warnings regarding a massive tech bubble burst.
Despite Goldman Sachs who are infamously wrong most of the time saying that there is no tech bubble, it doesn’t take much more than common sense to recognize the clear and present dangers arising in the tech sector.

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett exclaimed back in March that Netflix, Google, Facebook, Ebay, Twitter and Amazon were in a bubble considering their growth of 617% since the financial crisis. Hartnett continued just recently that there will be a quick, deep tech selloff.
Well now, Morgan Stanley’s Chief US Equity Strategist Michael Wilson warns that the tech sector will see a moment of truth “at any moment, without warning.”
While people can’t afford simple things anymore and we see major retail giants fall at the same time as Amazon takes over and people leave Facebook and other social media in droves due to a large array of problems, this is a storm waiting to be let loose.
The outlook is bearish because these are highly centralized markets with incredibly risky levels of faith. Look at the speculation! We’ve seen this before. We may have learned a little bit since the 2001 dotcom bubble, but many in the markets today were just children at the time and they’re blindly investing in investor confidence rather than fundamental value. These tech giants are starting to break loose despite an incredible year of profits.
Is Twitter truly that valuable? Will Facebook keep the customers it’s shunning? Will YouTube allow creators to be free on the platform?

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EUR & GLD broke a Support Line

EUR vs GLD, GBS.L, HK2840 ... update


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Gold Bulls Capitulate

(Kitco News) - After the Fed gave a more hawkish perspective on Wednesday, followed by the ECB announcement on Thursday that it would be year-end before they were looking to tighten, forex traders aggressively bought the dollar. There was a delayed reaction until Friday, but metals traders having initially disregarded the 250 bip drop in the euro finally capitulated on gold. Gold’s inability to break above $1,307, the 200-day moving average, also created technical pressure on the gold market. A move of this size in the euro suggests that maybe a light bulb went off in the multi-national corporate trading rooms. US rates are moving up and ECB rates, at best, are on hold until year-end. I suspect that a number of corporates have not as of yet converted their offshore balances for repatriation home after the tax-law changes. I would expect a bounce after Friday’s carnage. Would see a $1,287 level as an initial target, but dollar strength needs to mitigate. The support line around $1,278 must hold to prevent a test as low as $1,250.


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EURo versus Gold etf's

EUR vs GLD etc ... update


EUR -etc ... 10d :


GLD / Gold on its own ... update :



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NAILING DOWN THE BIAS - in the fake FBI investigation

Gowdy does a great job here

No way that Strozk could have done an honest job investigating the Witch
Rep. Trey Gowdy Questions I.G. Horowitz | House Judiciary Committee Hearing

/ 2 /
Rep. Jim Jordan Questions I.G. Horowitz | House Judiciary Committee Hearing

WHEN WILL A REAL INVESTIGATION into Mrs Clinton's alleged crimes begin?

With Trump, there were NO CRIMES ALLEGED, but there was a VERY thorough investigation

Perhaps the investigation should involve waterboarding

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