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DOW : The Great Dow Highs of Summer 2007


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Cheers for the travelblog link - will probably do something like that and may well do something occasionally here on GEI too - don't want to bore people here, but might post a bit and see how it goes.

Sounds great, will probably be having a years travelling myself. Would be useful to have any ideas/tips you pick up.

 

 

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Sounds great, will probably be having a years travelling myself. Would be useful to have any ideas/tips you pick up.

It does sound like a good idea. Jim Rogers did it, in his own way.

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  • 1 month later...
DD,

You are very welcome to set up a Travel Blog here, on GEI.

Even in the investment section, if you will retain an interest in investing as you travel.

 

DD is now off on his travels.

You can follow his accounts here: http://www.TinyUrl.com/DDsDiary

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

A few quick thoughts on the markets as i am back in the UK for a few days.

 

I said back in March that:

 

If, or when, this wave down is complete then yes a common retracement target is a previous 4th wave.....the 9,000 to 10,000 area [on the Dow] would seem a likely first target. Given that we are currently at 6.6k then even the 9k level would be a near 40% rise and to 10k would be 50% rise. Substantial rises.

 

I also said on the 24th March:

 

We should now be in the early stages of a multi-month corrective rally that takes the markets considerably higher and likely will not end until quite a lot of confidence has returned to the markets, i.e expect Vix to fall back a lot and to probably below 20 etc.

 

I didn't call the turn to the day like Dr B (good work Dr). But I got the month right and the size and speed of the subsequent rise - so far anyway. The Dow closed last night at 9361 and looks poised to move higher today. I was also looking for volatility to fall away substantially, and Vix has done just that, it currently being at 25, having been below 24 a few days ago. So, we are close to my target of below 20.

 

The rally has lasted almost exactly 5 months so far, so in time terms it can be seen as quite short (i think it should be correcting the whole of the bear market from 2007) so it could last a while longer, but in terms of size it has basically got to the first substantial target (between 9000 and 10000), though i think the upper end of this target might prove a magnet. So, it is time to be alert to a reversal sometime soon and look to protect profits.

 

If i am right about there being at least one more large down leg to come to substantial new lows then these green shoots we are seeing in the economy will never get beyond shoots and in fact this recession will soon worsen. Seems a funny thing to say on the day data came out on Germany and France showing their economies grew 0.3% in the second qtr which 'supposedly' marks the end of the recession, but that is my reading of the markets and of the lack of progress in getting rid of the underlying problems in the world economy - the bubbles. The imbalances are still there and the debt problems have got worse.

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A few quick thoughts on the markets as i am back in the UK for a few days.

 

I said back in March that:

 

 

 

I also said on the 24th March:

 

 

 

I didn't call the turn to the day like Dr B (good work Dr). But I got the month right and the size and speed of the subsequent rise - so far anyway. The Dow closed last night at 9361 and looks poised to move higher today. I was also looking for volatility to fall away substantially, and Vix has done just that, it currently being at 25, having been below 24 a few days ago. So, we are close to my target of below 20.

 

The rally has lasted almost exactly 5 months so far, so in time terms it can be seen as quite short (i think it should be correcting the whole of the bear market from 2007) so it could last a while longer, but in terms of size it has basically got to the first substantial target (between 9000 and 10000), though i think the upper end of this target might prove a magnet. So, it is time to be alert to a reversal sometime soon and look to protect profits.

 

If i am right about there being at least one more large down leg to come to substantial new lows then these green shoots we are seeing in the economy will never get beyond shoots and in fact this recession will soon worsen. Seems a funny thing to say on the day data came out on Germany and France showing their economies grew 0.3% in the second qtr which 'supposedly' marks the end of the recession, but that is my reading of the markets and of the lack of progress in getting rid of the underlying problems in the world economy - the bubbles. The imbalances are still there and the debt problems have got worse.

 

 

Good to hear your thoughts DD. Keep them coming if you are able.

 

I think were approaching the 3rd of the C up, so looking to flatten off here to look for the reversal downwards.

 

 

 

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  • 2 months later...

An update on my thoughts.

 

As i have mentioned previously, corrections are so much harder to read as they can take so many forms, compared to a market moving in the direction of the main trend - i.e in this case down as i believe we are in a long term bear market. So the market of 2008 had a really clear form, whereas this correction since March is less clear. But, we have very nearly got to below 20 on the vix (21 yesterday) as i was looking for in March and the Dow has hit the top of the 9,000 to 10,000 target i also mentioned in March (Dow is closed as i write this, at 10,062). Plus, optimism has simply returned too quickly for it to have been a real bottom IMO. It should take years to get back to the current level of optimism, if not decades, not months. So, this looks a good area for a top to form.

 

If these falls manifest themselves then the economy too should nosedive. The illusion of everything returning to normal will be seen as just that, an illusion. Clearly the lessons of what went wrong have not been learnt. For example, and as the Economist of Sept 26th points out, "The Federal Housing Administration (FHA), another agency that will lend up to 97% of a proprty's value, has meanwhile been filling the vacuum left by subprime lenders. Total loans guaranteed by the three have grown by $227 bn this year, to $6.1 trillion." Amazing and stupid. This 'depression' is to a large extent about debt. This problem is still here - it has gone nowhere and if anything has got worse. Personal debt is starting to fall marginally in some areas, but corporate and Gov't debt has either stagnated at best or got soooo much worse in the case of the latter that clearly we have a long way to go to lay the foundations of the next sustainable upturn.

 

Such a nosedive in the markets and economy will likely be accompanied by a flight to safety - which probably means the dollar, at the expense of most western currencies and more. I fear for the UK and the pound given the debt problems there. My fear is that we could get what M Armstrong calls a pendulum swing to the private sector. That is, initially we could see bond yields on short term Gilts falling as people move to safety, but then as things get really bad it swings back to the private sector and gilt yields rocket as faith in the Gov't and its ability to honour its debts evaporates. Fingers crossed this does not happen.

 

As for what should happen next once this top is in. We should, IMO, get a massive reversal to the downside, eventually taking out the March 2009 lows and then some. My preferred target is the levels reached at the bottom of the 1987 crash (which i think i recall detailing last year on this thread). From the same edition of the economist - "As a result, the markets look vulnerable to a setback. As a strategist at UBS remarked in a recent research note: "Liquidity has been a much bigger driver of the market than fundamentals. Liquidity-driven rallies have a habit of reversing violently without warning"".

 

I must admit, I write this with a small degree of scepticism that things could get soo bad that we reach 1987 levels, but that is what i see from the pattern of the markets, so that is what i will stick with. Maybe its the cheap beer and lovely steak with blue cheese sauce i have just had here in northern Laos that is making me feel slightly optimistic, but I recall feeling similar scepticism last year (20th Sept 2008) when i was talking of their being a crash hours after the US govt came out with its bail out plan and just after the markets had taken off in the biggest ever jump, but I stuck with what the pattern was saying then and it obviously turned out to be the right thing to do. So will do the same thing now.

 

 

P.S To summarise what i think are the latest stock market forecasts of the three gurus frequently quoted on this site and whom i follow from time to time. Prechter, Neely and Armstrong. Interestingly, they are all very different. Prechter sees a massive decline to below 1000 on the Dow. Neely now sees a large sideways movement in the markets, a few hundred S&P points either side of where we are now for the next few years, but not taking out the March 2009 lows; and Armstrong sees a short term fall into 2010 followed by longer term big rises. But they are all looking for further economic turmoil. Either ways, interesting times lie right ahead. All are looking for the period 2010 to 2014 to be very interesting indeed.

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Hi DD,

 

Have to be honest, I have been short FTSE since 4930 and am patiently waiting for the (I believe) inevitable falls/correction.

Luckily not to heavy a bet, but sold all my shares over the summer also. Thought I had done well on them, although they have all risen a bit since then.

 

Cheers for the update, how's the travels??

 

 

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Hi DD,

 

Have to be honest, I have been short FTSE since 4930 and am patiently waiting for the (I believe) inevitable falls/correction.

Luckily not to heavy a bet, but sold all my shares over the summer also. Thought I had done well on them, although they have all risen a bit since then.

 

Cheers for the update, how's the travels??

 

Maybe, just maybe, today will be the day. Looks set up nicely to rise at little at the open (to complete a small degree 5th wave) and for the Dow to make a new recovery high and then start the falls. Sadly, things rarely work out quite that perfectly, but will look later to see how it develops.

 

Travels still going well thanks. Still in Laos having a little look around.

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I think the fall has started.

 

What do you think of my wave count?

 

My Own Elliott Wave count - in edit from 10/23 :: updated chart

 

aa1d.gif

 

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I think the fall has started.

 

What do you think of my wave count?

 

Pretty much spot on as i see it. The prob being right now is that the markets have not fallen enough as of Friday to confirm that the next leg down is on, so it could subdivide higher if it wanted. Hope not though, as getting tired of these rises.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Pretty much spot on as i see it. The prob being right now is that the markets have not fallen enough as of Friday to confirm that the next leg down is on, so it could subdivide higher if it wanted. Hope not though, as getting tired of these rises.

 

And subdivide higher it unfortunately did. Here we are three weeks later and at new recovery highs. The Dow is currently just over 10400 and the S&P at 1109 - having hit 1113.7 in yesterday's session. So, at what level would i throw in my extreme bearish towel? Not yet, although significant further strength would be worrying for the extreme bear case.

 

The long term target of a number of fibbo savvy tarders has been 10334 (50% retracement of the Dow's losses) - as John Doe pointed out recently somewhere on this site - referring to a long term target of Sandy Jadega. We have obviously now hit that.

 

Other targets include what i think should probably be the main one - the down sloping resistance line drawn off the Oct 2007 peak and the wave 2 high in May 2008. As gleaned from EWI's free week a week ago, "using intraday extremes, this line runs through 10508 tomorrow [Nov 10th] and 10500 on Weds [11th]. Given that we are now about 6 days away from the 10500 area mentioned and that it seemed to be falling at about 8 points a day, this would suggest the line is currently around 10450ish.

 

For the S&P the 50% retracement is 1121 and its down sloping resistace line was at 1103 last Weds and falling at nearly a point a day, so below 1100 now.

 

Sandy J has also been targetting a turn date of the end of Nov for a while - again fibbo calculated i am sure.

 

So, there should be strong resistance around these levels in the markets, thus it seems reasonable to look again for a turn anytime now. If instead, the market were to power through and on up, then that is what would undermine my extreme bear case. Greater than 50% retracements are obviously common (with the next fibbo target being 62%) and so the bear ship would not be holed terminally, but powering through the resistance lines would be a worry for my extreme bear case.

 

Adding to my expectations of a turn soon is the dollar. I am currently short the euro against the dollar as it looks like we are in the final (5th) wave lower of the US dollar index. If this count is right then we must be close to a large and potentially violent turnaround in the fortunes of the dollar. Parabolic gold might do what markets do when they finish going parabolic too if this plays out.

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Other targets include what i think should probably be the main one - the down sloping resistance line drawn off the Oct 2007 peak and the wave 2 high in May 2008. As gleaned from EWI's free week a week ago, "using intraday extremes, this line runs through 10508 tomorrow [Nov 10th] and 10500 on Weds [11th]. Given that we are now about 6 days away from the 10500 area mentioned and that it seemed to be falling at about 8 points a day, this would suggest the line is currently around 10450ish.

 

For the S&P the 50% retracement is 1121 and its down sloping resistace line was at 1103 last Weds and falling at nearly a point a day, so below 1100 now.

 

Sandy J has also been targetting a turn date of the end of Nov for a while - again fibbo calculated i am sure.

 

So, there should be strong resistance around these levels in the markets, thus it seems reasonable to look again for a turn anytime now. If instead, the market were to power through and on up, then that is what would undermine my extreme bear case. Greater than 50% retracements are obviously common (with the next fibbo target being 62%) and so the bear ship would not be holed terminally, but powering through the resistance lines would be a worry for my extreme bear case.

 

Adding to my expectations of a turn soon is the dollar. I am currently short the euro against the dollar as it looks like we are in the final (5th) wave lower of the US dollar index. If this count is right then we must be close to a large and potentially violent turnaround in the fortunes of the dollar. Parabolic gold might do what markets do when they finish going parabolic too if this plays out.

Ever thought that the reason the TA (EW) works best on bear moves, is because on the way up the manipulation is far easier, but when the dam breaks and the fear sets in, no matter what the authorities do, the outcome is very much as predicted by TA?

 

The more I look at potential turn points (retracements etc) when markets are rising, the more I see that the authorities could easily manipulate these markets (through small announcements etc to the (majority) of bulls and pressure on government backed investment banks etc).

 

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Ever thought that the reason the TA (EW) works best on bear moves, is because on the way up the manipulation is far easier, but when the dam breaks and the fear sets in, no matter what the authorities do, the outcome is very much as predicted by TA?

 

The more I look at potential turn points (retracements etc) when markets are rising, the more I see that the authorities could easily manipulate these markets (through small announcements etc to the (majority) of bulls and pressure on government backed investment banks etc).

 

Does it work best on bear moves? One of the most simple things you can do is draw a couple of trend lines and see how the price moves up and down between the two, bouncing off the bottom and stalling at the top. Ever thought that it might simply be a case that the institutions buying and selling kicks in when these trend line support and resistance areas are hit? There is no great science in this, yet it is amazing how often it happens, as can be seen in the charts below taken from the world market thread.

 

Dow/FTSE mirror image.

 

Weekly Dow

ScreenShot016.gif

 

Weekly FTSE

ScreenShot014.gif

 

Daily Dow

ScreenShot017.gif

 

Daily FTSE

ScreenShot015.gif

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Does it work best on bear moves? One of the most simple things you can do is draw a couple of trend lines and see how the price moves up and down between the two, bouncing off the bottom and stalling at the top. Ever thought that it might simply be a case that the institutions buying and selling kicks in when these trend line support and resistance areas are hit? There is no great science in this, yet it is amazing how often it happens, as can be seen in the charts below taken from the world market thread.

Oh I agree about the trend lines, it's like with most things, if enough people follow them they become self fulfilling. Indeed, these also would be great points for potential manipulation with greatest effect for minimum effort.

 

But I was really thinking more about EW analysis, where the falling market wave patterns and fib retraces really do seem to fit the theory quite well. I don’t see the same correlation on the up trending markets.

 

 

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  • 2 months later...
.....The Dow is currently just over 10400 and the S&P at 1109 - having hit 1113.7 in yesterday's session. So, at what level would i throw in my extreme bearish towel? Not yet, although significant further strength would be worrying for the extreme bear case.

 

Adding to my expectations of a turn soon is the dollar. I am currently short the euro against the dollar as it looks like we are in the final (5th) wave lower of the US dollar index. If this count is right then we must be close to a large and potentially violent turnaround in the fortunes of the dollar. Parabolic gold might do what markets do when they finish going parabolic too if this plays out.

 

Well, stocks didnt fall last Nov as i was hoping, but kept crawling up. There wasn't significant further strength, but a frustrating chopiness into the 10700s, so the extreme bear case has not been holed as yet. The falls of the last couple of weeks have so far taken a three wave form and so for this turn down to be the 3rd wave down then it should not rise above the highs of early last week, about 10300 in the Dow and just over 1100 in the S&P and instead continue falling in a few days to trace a 5 wave impulsive form.

 

More immediately, the sharp rise on Friday into the close seems to have traced out a 5 wave form so it is likely this correction has a bit further to go - ideally a down up sequence - before starting more big falls. Anyways, it should soon be resolved and if the bear case is on then further big falls shouuld soon be back on agenda. Be really interesting to see how this pans out.

 

The dollar has obviously been strengthening since late last year and looks like it is in a 3rd wave at the moment and so if this count is correct it would suggest the dollar has a lot further to go on the upside over the coming weeks, it having gone from about 1.51 to 1.36 so far. This would tie in nicely with falling stocks.

 

It is all set up nicely so fingers crossed it pans out this time.

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Well, stocks didnt fall last Nov as i was hoping, but kept crawling up. There wasn't significant further strength, but a frustrating chopiness into the 10700s, so the extreme bear case has not been holed as yet. The falls of the last couple of weeks have so far taken a three wave form and so for this turn down to be the 3rd wave down then it should not rise above the highs of early last week, about 10300 in the Dow and just over 1100 in the S&P and instead continue falling in a few days to trace a 5 wave impulsive form.

 

More immediately, the sharp rise on Friday into the close seems to have traced out a 5 wave form so it is likely this correction has a bit further to go - ideally a down up sequence - before starting more big falls. Anyways, it should soon be resolved and if the bear case is on then further big falls shouuld soon be back on agenda. Be really interesting to see how this pans out.

 

The dollar has obviously been strengthening since late last year and looks like it is in a 3rd wave at the moment and so if this count is correct it would suggest the dollar has a lot further to go on the upside over the coming weeks, it having gone from about 1.51 to 1.36 so far. This would tie in nicely with falling stocks.

 

It is all set up nicely so fingers crossed it pans out this time.

Hi DD,

How are the travels? Great thread on the Travel section by the way.

 

There has been a lot on the news/radio about the markets having moved from their support of ever increasing Gov Stimulus toward "how you gonna pay it back" mode over the last week. Probably coinciding with Greek (and more recently talk of other EU countries) risk of default.

 

Iran now seems to be rearing up on the scene once more with even Germany saying patience has run out.

 

So, question is, as a hardened EW follower, would this be a social mood change coinciding with the 3rd down wave?

 

 

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Hi DD,

How are the travels? Great thread on the Travel section by the way.

 

So, question is, as a hardened EW follower, would this be a social mood change coinciding with the 3rd down wave?

 

Travels great thanks. Just arrived in Santiago, Chile and maybe just in time for some market fun.

 

It certainly looks that way, in answer to your social mood change.

 

Anyways, more immediately, right now there is a great low risk set up in the markets. No promises of course, but best set up i have seen for a while. If instead the markets rise above the stop levels mentioned below then stand aside, but the potential losses are quite small in comparison to the potential profits.

 

Markets look ripe for a turn very very soon. US stocks have nearly made the new 5 day recovery high i have been looking for, S & P now at 1077 and Dow at 10125, with a point or two to go on the S&P to make the new high above Tuesday's. Once that is in the corrective pattern will hopefully be basically complete and so should fall if we are on the cusp of a mini 3rd of a 3rd wave down. Stops of 10300 and just over 1100 on the s&ps.

 

[if we rise above these stop levels then it looks like the big falls have been delayed and a new bear market recovery above the Jan highs is on the cards. But, i think the odds are looking very good at the moment for falls and for the bearish scenario.]

 

Gold (now 1093) and silver have risen nicely too today and look like completing an abc correction of the falls that started from 1120ish last week and so should start falling very soon too. The euro too looks like it is set nicely for the falls to continue.

 

Just need markets to play ball now and for them all to start falling in unison.

 

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Travels great thanks. Just arrived in Santiago, Chile and maybe just in time for some market fun.

 

It certainly looks that way, in answer to your social mood change.

 

Anyways, more immediately, right now there is a great low risk set up in the markets. No promises of course, but best set up i have seen for a while. If instead the markets rise above the stop levels mentioned below then stand aside, but the potential losses are quite small in comparison to the potential profits.

 

Markets look ripe for a turn very very soon. US stocks have nearly made the new 5 day recovery high i have been looking for, S & P now at 1077 and Dow at 10125, with a point or two to go on the S&P to make the new high above Tuesday's. Once that is in the corrective pattern will hopefully be basically complete and so should fall if we are on the cusp of a mini 3rd of a 3rd wave down. Stops of 10300 and just over 1100 on the s&ps.

 

[if we rise above these stop levels then it looks like the big falls have been delayed and a new bear market recovery above the Jan highs is on the cards. But, i think the odds are looking very good at the moment for falls and for the bearish scenario.]

 

Gold (now 1093) and silver have risen nicely too today and look like completing an abc correction of the falls that started from 1120ish last week and so should start falling very soon too. The euro too looks like it is set nicely for the falls to continue.

 

Just need markets to play ball now and for them all to start falling in unison.

So DD, what are the targets?

 

I have my shorts target at DOW 9645 (After Sandy Jadega)

 

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So DD, what are the targets?

 

I have my shorts target at DOW 9645 (After Sandy Jadega)

 

If this is the 3rd wave down then short term targets of that sound reasonable, but ultimately should blow through those levels to much lower levels.

 

Just woken up to see markets are trending lower nicely at the moment.

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We got a bounce - on lightish volume - off that low.

But it may not last long

I still think that SPY may be done here

zzzzm.gif

 

and ftse too

xxxs.gif

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Hey DD,

Given where you are, any chance you will make it to Casey's shindig in Argentina?

 

(Casey is building his own "Shangri-la" in Argentina)

 

Doug: We’ve built the golf course and golf club house. The construction of the social clubhouse, gym, tennis courts, etc. should start next month. It should all be pretty well done within a year. By then, there should be 40 or 50 houses built, or under construction, and it will be a delightful place to live.

 

There’s one really interesting, perhaps unique, thing about this project. I’ve lived in, and been to, a lot of communities around the world, and sometimes you like your neighbors, and sometimes you don’t. It’s the luck of the draw. In Aspen, the chances are that I wouldn’t like them; these days it’s just drawing the wrong crowd, from my point of view. But I like all the folks I’ve met who’ve bought lots at Cafayate and are planning to spend time there. It’s a generally laissez-faire, smart, get-along & go-along crowd, drawn from 14 different countries. It’s really becoming a bit of a Galt’s Gulch.

 

It’s been a pain, having to build it myself, but there was simply no existing place in the world that I knew of that had everything – or even just most of what I wanted.

 

fotoNews6.jpg

/source: http://www.laestanciadecafayate.com/

 

One sign of how real this is, is that many of those who’ve bought lots at Estancia de Cafayate are Argentines – which shows that the pricing is right.

 

L: And they pay cash.

 

Doug: Everyone pays cash in Argentina. That’s why land prices are real and so low – they are not inflated by borrowed money. There simply is no money to be borrowed for real estate in Argentina. None.

 

L: And you say Argentina has a very European flavor?

 

Doug: Yes, at this point, Argentina is more European than Europe is. You know what they say: an Argentine is an Italian who speaks Spanish, thinks he’s British, and lives in a French house. That last refers to the gilded age buildings, of which there are thousands. Apartment buildings in La Recoleta generally have 14-foot ceilings and walls two feet thick, because that’s how they were made, back in the day.

 

You know, I talk about how bureaucratic and stupid the government is, but I think there’s a chance that the place will reform for the better, much the way New Zealand did in the mid-1980s. In other words, you can be so stupid, for so long, that eventually you have to throw in the towel and try being less stupid

It would be interesting to hear your impressions

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  • 4 weeks later...
Hey DD,

Given where you are, any chance you will make it to Casey's shindig in Argentina?

 

 

It would be interesting to hear your impressions

 

Hi Dr B. Had very limited internet access for the last few weeks, travelling through Chilean and Argentian Patagonia. Absolutely stunning scenery. Am now in Buenos Aires with a good enough internet connection to be able to download the link you sent.

 

Looks like the shindig has come and gone. Anyways, i wasn't near there at the time. Will be passing through Salta (near ish the estancia) in a week briefly but no time to check out Cafayate am afraid.

 

As for the markets, the last time i wrote the markets looked set for further falls, but instead rose above the 10300 area i mentioned turning the falls into a 3 wave corrective pattern rather than an impulsive one. It was a low risk play so not the end of the world but annoying nonetheless. Given the 3 wave appearance to the falls of mid-jan to earlyish Feb then the odds favour new recovery highs soon.

 

In some ways i actually prefer this scenario as the MSCI World Index (where EWs are possibly at their clearest over the last few years) had traced out a fairly decent 5 wave pattern since the March 09 lows, suggesting that the rises since then were just part of a larger ongoing correction that would last for a further year or so. However, if it shortly goes onto make new receovery highs it will turn an impulsive pattern into a corrective one and thereby suggest that a larger correction is no longer necessary.

 

The Dow is currently lagging most other indicies and so that is the one worth keeping an eye on. Once (and if) it makes a marginal new recovery high then it might be time to be on ones guard for the return of the bear. The Dow is currently at 10625 and so has a further couple of hundred points from memory to go to make this new high.

 

The euro appears to be treading water at the moment against the dollar in a corrective pattern and so should start weakening again soonish, its currently at 1.376. I temporarily closed my euro shorts when it was in the 1.36s for the first time since going short at 1.50, but am looking to return to the short side soon. Today's news of an agreement on a Greek bail out might give the euro just the short term filip i am looking for in order to short again.

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In some ways i actually prefer this scenario as the MSCI World Index (where EWs are possibly at their clearest over the last few years) had traced out a fairly decent 5 wave pattern since the March 09 lows, suggesting that the rises since then were just part of a larger ongoing correction that would last for a further year or so. However, if it shortly goes onto make new receovery highs it will turn an impulsive pattern into a corrective one and thereby suggest that a larger correction is no longer necessary.

 

Hi DD, not sure what you mean by this paragraph. So you think a large correction is not imminent from the MSCI patterns?

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