nbarter Posted October 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 Purely from a pattern perspective I think we should shortly see a bigger price collapse than we saw early this week. The bailout plans add an element of uncertainty which makes me hesitate to press the metal too hard to the floor, but concentrating on the pattern has worked well these last couple of weeks, so I shall try the same now. It looks like we are in the midst of a third wave down, with the two day bounce from Monday's close, a correction that seems likely to have run its course. There appears to be a smaller correction going on now of the wave down yesterday, but it seems likely that once this has run its course the market should collapse big time. Again I somehow find this amazing collapse scenario hard to believe, especially given that Vix is currently at 43, but this is my favoured Elliott wave count, so I will go with it with stops a bit above the mid-week highs (in case the falls of yesterday were just a 'b' wave down of a larger correction of the falls to Monday). We should not see a rise above the highs of last Friday on this count. Dow is currently around 10620. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 6, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 Purely from a pattern perspective I think we should shortly see a bigger price collapse than we saw early this week. The bailout plans add an element of uncertainty which makes me hesitate to press the metal too hard to the floor, but concentrating on the pattern has worked well these last couple of weeks, so I shall try the same now. It looks like we are in the midst of a third wave down, with the two day bounce from Monday's close, a correction that seems likely to have run its course. There appears to be a smaller correction going on now of the wave down yesterday, but it seems likely that once this has run its course the market should collapse big time. Again I somehow find this amazing collapse scenario hard to believe, especially given that Vix is currently at 43, but this is my favoured Elliott wave count, so I will go with it with stops a bit above the mid-week highs (in case the falls of yesterday were just a 'b' wave down of a larger correction of the falls to Monday). We should not see a rise above the highs of last Friday on this count. Dow is currently around 10620. Bingo again. I am loving this. I wrote the above about ten trading hours ago. Just after i wrote that the Dow moved a little higher to complete its correction at just below 10800. Thirty minutes ago it hit 9533. A fall of over 1200 Dow points. How's that for 'the market should collapse big time'? Anyone doubting Elliott Wave should go through my thread here. I largely use EW to read the markets. I have mentioned a few times what 3rd of 3rd waves can look like on this scale, now we have a graphic example. Given this should be a third wave, it means the bottom is far far from in. In fact it is probably at least a few years away and i will talk about potential targets another time. But for now, the market is rising a little, but i think we have at least one more big panic fall to come before a more meaningful temporary bottom is in here and we can start tracing out a 4th wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted October 6, 2008 Report Share Posted October 6, 2008 Gotta hand it to you douche, you seem to be on a roll recently. Nice work. What’s the short term EW analysis? I was expecting a bounce today and very nearly got stopped out for a big loss on a short I opened just after S&P went below 1060. Managed to just about scrape a flat trade with a small loss when I jumped back out just before market close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 7, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Gotta hand it to you douche, you seem to be on a roll recently. Nice work. What’s the short term EW analysis? I was expecting a bounce today and very nearly got stopped out for a big loss on a short I opened just after S&P went below 1060. Managed to just about scrape a flat trade with a small loss when I jumped back out just before market close. Thanks. I was looking for 'at least one more big panic fall to come before a more meaningful temporary bottom is in'. We obviously got a new low today, but it doesnt seem to be much of a panic low (Vix didnt make a new low, the headlines are more muted etc), so i favour further downside before we start a multi-week bounce. I will post an updated chart later this week when i get a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 7, 2008 Report Share Posted October 7, 2008 Thanks. I was looking for 'at least one more big panic fall to come before a more meaningful temporary bottom is in'. We obviously got a new low today, but it doesnt seem to be much of a panic low (Vix didnt make a new low, the headlines are more muted etc), so i favour further downside before we start a multi-week bounce. I liked the VIX reading- it was a non-confirmation. We got a lower low in stocks, and VIX was slightly higher than the previous day. A VIX of 53 is plenty high. There must be an upper limit for VIX fear, since a VIX reading of 100 seems impossible. Surely that means people think stocks are headed to double or zero. I dont think the market will ever ALL expect 0. And so the VIX upper limit must be in the 60's or 70's, I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 8, 2008 Report Share Posted October 8, 2008 If this long term Dow Channel holds, we may get a major Low in Q4.2008 or Q1.2009, at between 8,000-9,000 Dow Close: 9,447.11 Change: -508.39 Open: 9,955.42 High: 10,124.03 Low: 9,436.67 Volume: 362,523,799 Percent Change: -5.11% The Dow/INDU has broken those 2004 lows, and is approaching the bottom of the Quarterly Bolly ... update Closer-up: 5 years ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 8, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 8, 2008 I was looking for 'at least one more big panic fall to come before a more meaningful temporary bottom is in'. We obviously got a new low today, but it doesnt seem to be much of a panic low (Vix didnt make a new low, the headlines are more muted etc), so i favour further downside before we start a multi-week bounce. I sold the last of my puts at this morning's lows on the FTSE. It was arguably the panic low i was looking for after the Nikkei fell just under 10% overnight and Europe opened up about 5% down. But, no guarantees. I have a few small shorts left as insurance in case falling off another cliff becomes more desirable for the markets than attempting to scale one it has just fallen off. But, whereas before the wave pattern only looked right with much bigger falls, now that we have had these massive falls (worst year since 1937 etc) the pattern could i guess be counted as being somewhat complete. I am not overly convinced a multi week bootom is in, but have decided to take the vast majority of my profits as greed could lead to my travel fund evaporating quickly. Dow is currently 9320 on the spreadbetters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted October 8, 2008 Report Share Posted October 8, 2008 DOW 9258 on close, but lower in after trade on spreadbets. Paulson managed to kill the potentially higher close. Think he follows DOW theory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 9, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 9, 2008 Does this look like a market that has bottomed? Clearly i don't think so, but I guess we could get a powerful bear market rally at any time so i am watching on the sidelines at the moment. I have not added a mini 4th wave to the chart as yet, though it has been so volatile lately that we might have had it in the last few days. So i expect to see a rise at some point, maybe even as soon as tomorrow, which will likely be a mini 4th wave, or a 4th wave of one larger degree. But, until this clears up i keep trying to remind myself not to chase shadows and end up losing a stack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 continuing good work, DD do you think we will see SPX-780 in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 continuing good work, DD do you think we will see SPX-780 in October? Thanks. Probably more likely than less likely, but even if we do not, it is only a matter of time. My minimum target is the 2002 lows for this market (768), and most likely considerably south of this. Plus, i think we still have many months of this bear left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 ...i think we still have many months of this bear left. with some bounces along the way, yes? ftse-3900: a good place for a low ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 with some bounces along the way, yes? Yes definitely some big bounces. Already had a 800 point Dow bounce today mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 12, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 12, 2008 I have been meaning to add a chart showing my target for where this bear market may bottom for some time; here it is. I said in July 07 that the most bearish case was if we are correcting the rises since the early 1930s in which case to look for a floor below 8,000 on the Dow. Well, this now looks to be the case. I also said last week My minimum target is the 2002 lows for this market (768), and most likely considerably south of this. Markets often retrace back to the extremes of previous 4th waves. I think the 1987 lows are a previous 4th wave extreme. So a more realistic target is probably the bottom of the stock market crash in 1987, a target of around 216. It could take a couple of years to get there i guess. This weekly chart also shows clearly the size of the stock market crash of the last couple of weeks. I may add some fibbo time analysis when i get some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 13, 2008 Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 I have been meaning to add a chart showing my target for where this bear market may bottom for some time; here it is. ... I may add some fibbo time analysis when i get some time. Douche, the book thread may be appropriate, however which book would you reccommend for elliot Wave analysis? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 13, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 13, 2008 Douche, the book thread may be appropriate, however which book would you reccommend for elliot Wave analysis? Thanks Many apologies, i saw your question on a different thread a few days back and then clean forgot to answer. Depends how familiar with it you are i guess. If you have not read Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter then give that a go. It doesn't have huge amounts on EW, but does give a useful intro to it. But, the much more in depth EW bible i refer to is Precher's and Frost's 'Elliott Wave Principle'. For a few years, until about 2 years ago i guess, i also subscribed to EW International's thrice weekly markets update (not very cheap) and i learnt a lot through that in terms of applying EW to the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 14, 2008 Report Share Posted October 14, 2008 Many apologies, i saw your question on a different thread a few days back and then clean forgot to answer. Depends how familiar with it you are i guess. If you have not read Conquer the Crash by Robert Prechter then give that a go. It doesn't have huge amounts on EW, but does give a useful intro to it. But, the much more in depth EW bible i refer to is Precher's and Frost's 'Elliott Wave Principle'. For a few years, until about 2 years ago i guess, i also subscribed to EW International's thrice weekly markets update (not very cheap) and i learnt a lot through that in terms of applying EW to the markets. Great thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frizzers Posted October 14, 2008 Report Share Posted October 14, 2008 Especially for you Douche http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?nl_id=294 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 14, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 14, 2008 Especially for you Douche http://breakpointtrades.com/controls/preview.php?nl_id=294 Great stuff, looking forward to looking at this in more detail soon. Thanks. My bones are getting more bearish again. At a minimum i think there is a good chance we should soon see a new low. So i have started nibbling shorts again, as it were. It maybe that the falls today are just a 'b'wave of an abc correction from friday's lows, but i dont want to have no exposure if this is not the case. Such a shame puts are soo damn expensive. (The Dow is currently around the 9300 area in after hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Doe Posted October 15, 2008 Report Share Posted October 15, 2008 Jezo douche, good call again, DOW nearly 8% down! So when you giving up the day job? You couldn’t give me six numbers between 1 and 49 for this weekend could you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbarter Posted October 15, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 15, 2008 So when you giving up the day job? Cheers. Hopefully in six months time to go travelling for a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazza Posted October 16, 2008 Report Share Posted October 16, 2008 Jezo douche, good call again, DOW nearly 8% down! So when you giving up the day job? You couldn’t give me six numbers between 1 and 49 for this weekend could you? Don't bother bought THE ticket already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 16, 2008 Report Share Posted October 16, 2008 EWI has a 64-67 week cycle Another Quarter to go to the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tedlem Posted October 16, 2008 Report Share Posted October 16, 2008 This looks a little different in terms of breath compared to other times. So If 60 weeks is the time measure, what is it to say that it drops and stays there for while or increases a bit and moves sideways fr 66 weeks? Wouldn't that be a long wait? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 17, 2008 Report Share Posted October 17, 2008 This looks a little different in terms of breath compared to other times. So If 60 weeks is the time measure, what is it to say that it drops and stays there for while or increases a bit and moves sideways fr 66 weeks? Wouldn't that be a long wait? I think a bounce and retest, or lower lows, is possible : maybe by year-end or Q1.2009 Mish Shedlock (spoke to him an hour ago) thinks SPX-600 or even 450 is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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