DOW : The Great Dow Highs of Summer 2007

[nbarter]

I may move the Blog-Journals to another section.

Please comment / here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....showtopic=10777

 

If you don't want the move, and a majority with Blogs also do not want it,

I will very happily leave things as is.

 

The idea was to make it easier to get to the Blog-Journals, and to increase visibility

 

Fine by me.

[drbubb]

Do you think you can make as much on this slide, as on the 2008 slide?

 

In other words, are you playing the downside as aggressively as last time?

[Member100]

Anything new, Douce Dore?

When is the slide going to resume?

[nbarter]

Do you think you can make as much on this slide, as on the 2008 slide?

 

In other words, are you playing the downside as aggressively as last time?

 

No, not really. Am too busy with work to keep abreast of things too closely, but have some exposure. Might increase if things look set up really nicely.

 

Member100 Posted Today, 05:29 AM

Anything new, Douce Dore?

When is the slide going to resume?

 

Looks like we had an inital 5 waves down at yesterday's open (as Dr B was looking for) and this strong rise today has now taken the S&P up to the 50% retracement of these falls i think, at 1099, which is where it is now. So, if the bear is back then markets should turn lower from here (or a little higher at the 62% i guess). As i have said before, the nature of the market should let us know whether this really is a 3rd of a 3rd, if so then we should be on the cusp of serious weakness. Anything other than this should raise serious alarm bells.

 

Edit: half hour later. Just calculated the 50% and 62% retracements exactly for interest. The 50% is 1099.4 and the 62% is 1106.5. High so far is 1100.1. Much above the 62% retrace and i will get worried from a bear perspective. Currently at 1098.7

[drbubb]

As i have said before, the nature of the market should let us know whether this really is a 3rd of a 3rd, if so then we should be on the cusp of serious weakness. Anything other than this should raise serious alarm bells.

 

Edit: half hour later. Just calculated the 50% and 62% retracements exactly for interest. The 50% is 1099.4 and the 62% is 1106.5. High so far is 1100.1. Much above the 62% retrace and i will get worried from a bear perspective. Currently at 1098.7

There's a decent chance the wave ii up is done now IMO.

If so, the Big Slide may begin very soon

 

[nbarter]

Just calculated the 50% and 62% retracements exactly for interest. The 50% is 1099.4 and the 62% is 1106.5. High so far is 1100.1. Much above the 62% retrace and i will get worried from a bear perspective. Currently at 1098.7

 

1100 was not reached again, so far at least. Have had another small leg down since then and another smaller degree wave ii. Looks like a coiled spring with my bet being that it is soon going to bust lower. I have just added to my shorts when the Dow bounced to 10250 a few mins ago. Maybe a little premature, but prefer to be in on this.

[Ret45]

1100 was not reached again, so far at least. Have had another small leg down since then and another smaller degree wave ii. Looks like a coiled spring with my bet being that it is soon going to bust lower. I have just added to my shorts when the Dow bounced to 10250 a few mins ago. Maybe a little premature, but prefer to be in on this.

 

 

Good call, looks like you could be bang on the money...

[John Doe]

Yep, nice one DD.

 

Sandy J gone bearish too

 

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/private...owards10000.htm

 

 

 

[nbarter]

In the bullish camp we have:

- month end/beginning right ahead (first trading day of Sept the S&P has been up 11 out of last 15);

- next w/e is labour day w/e and this is usually bullish;

- the gap left from 23rd Aug at 1067.36 has still not quite been closed and market often like to fill gaps;

- a set of 5 waves down from the recent 9th August high at 1129, followed by a 3 wave correction and then another set of 5 waves down to Friday's 1039.7 low. This could be read as a bigger ABC correction and so the next leg up should be in play now;

- Neely looking for a bottom in the very near future to be followed by a strong rally;

- etc

 

In the bearish camp we have:

- instead of being an ABC correction from the Aug 9 high, it could be wave 1 down, 2 up and then a mini first wave of a larger 3rd down. This would suggest that we should soon embark on the most explosive part of a market, the 3rd of a 3rd down;

- etc

 

I still favour the bearish case at the moment despite, as i have said recently, the dissapointing way in which the market has fallen quite slowly to date. But, despite this slightly slow start, no EW rules have been broken so i see no reason to change my stance. If the market takes out the wave 2 or B high of 17th Aug at 1100 then i might reassess the whole pattern since the April highs. It closed Friday at 1064.59.

 

I added shorts near the close and whilst there maybe some follow through next week, e.g to fully close that gap, i am looking for a decisive turn lower shortly.

 

The dollar looks similarly poised. There is even less room though here for the dollar to weaken without making the pattern messy. I think a decisive turn down in the fortunes of the euro is right around the corner, but it looks like mr market will soon show whether or not this is the case.

 

The Dax in europe is showing a nice pattern at the moment and loks like it is just putting the finishing touches to its bounce that started Wednesday and then should roll over nicely gathering momentum on the downside. Going above the 6200 area would invalidate this.

[drbubb]

Better than expected news, and a weak dollar has "lit a fire" under US stocks today (sept.1st)

[chazza]

I like the count that puts us in the 'e' wave of a triangle, with the 'a' on the 21st June. This could give us the end of 'e' around 1130, before the C leg down.

 

A triangle would suggest we would then be entering the final leg of the move down and could be more a correction rather than a 5 wave move down.

 

So are we still in the P2 move up from 666.

 

Any thoughts on this DD?

[drbubb]

I like the count that puts us in the 'e' wave of a triangle, with the 'a' on the 21st June. This could give us the end of 'e' around 1130, before the C leg down.

 

A triangle would suggest we would then be entering the final leg of the move down and could be more a correction rather than a 5 wave move down.

 

So are we still in the P2 move up from 666.

 

Any thoughts on this DD?

 

Yelnick has a similar looking count, I believe

[chazza]

Yelnick has a similar looking count, I believe

 

Ahem, yes, I won't try and take credit for the triangle, but it is seeming to appear on a number of different instruments, stocks through comodities

[nbarter]

Apologies Chazza, not even seen you had posted on here - not checked in since August. Too busy and internet problems at home.

 

After an extremely frustrating summer and September, the top may just have been made a few hours ago. I liked the way it popped up sharply to a new multi month high and then sharply dropped back to be down on the day (US markets at the open). Dow currently at 10800 and if this is right should not go back above 10948 - today's high. S&P hit 1157.16 3 hrs ago at the open and is currently at 1143.

 

I will give this a go now on the short side, but have lost enough over the last couple of months that i am not going to go in too big.

 

Finally, it will not be immediately clear if the markets do fall now if it is the long expected wave 3 (very bearish scenario that the Prechter types are looking for) or a less bearish C wave from the April highs. Both could be produce very sharp falls. The difference would come later - a few weeks down the line or so.

[chazza]

After an extremely frustrating summer and September, the top may just have been made a few hours ago. I liked the way it popped up sharply to a new multi month high and then sharply dropped back to be down on the day (US markets at the open). Dow currently at 10800 and if this is right should not go back above 10948 - today's high. S&P hit 1157.16 3 hrs ago at the open and is currently at 1143.

 

Agreed, nice pop and reversal, would have liked it to hit 1167 personally, so havent added to shorts today. Will see how the USD acts tomorow before I eneter the market

 

The market has worked its magic making us quite cautious....

[drbubb]

After an extremely frustrating summer and September, the top may just have been made a few hours ago.

I liked the way it popped up sharply to a new multi month high and then sharply dropped back to be down on the day (US markets at the open). Dow currently at 10800 and if this is right should not go back above 10948 - today's high. S&P hit 1157.16 3 hrs ago at the open and is currently at 1143.

Could be another great call, DD

And we seem to agree:

 

 

[nbarter]

The late Sept pop and drop obviously came to nothing, so i have been out of the markets for the last month as the markets continued their steady march higher. S&P currently at 1183.

 

Hands up I got the direction of the markets over the summer and early autumn wrong. The late Sept pop and drop coming to nothing was the last nail in the coffin for the near term bear case. Markets have reversed so much of the falls from late April that i would be amazed if they didn't go onto make new recovery highs from here - above the April 2010 highs. We could see a top this year, but i think it is more likely to be next year.

 

The continued strength in the markets and especially in the leading indicator copper, also suggests that the economy may not tip back into negative growth as quickly as it looked like doing a few months back. Don't get me wrong, i have not turned into a bull, it just looks like the real bad days are slightly further away than they looked in the summer.

[drbubb]

Another month begins... another chance for a drop to start perhaps

 

Clint Quatro expects a pop & drop after the election

[nbarter]

The late Sept pop and drop obviously came to nothing, so i have been out of the markets for the last month as the markets continued their steady march higher. S&P currently at 1183.

 

Hands up I got the direction of the markets over the summer and early autumn wrong. The late Sept pop and drop coming to nothing was the last nail in the coffin for the near term bear case. Markets have reversed so much of the falls from late April that i would be amazed if they didn't go onto make new recovery highs from here - above the April 2010 highs. We could see a top this year, but i think it is more likely to be next year.

 

The continued strength in the markets and especially in the leading indicator copper, also suggests that the economy may not tip back into negative growth as quickly as it looked like doing a few months back. Don't get me wrong, i have not turned into a bull, it just looks like the real bad days are slightly further away than they looked in the summer.

 

I think this might have been my last post, nearly 10 months ago. The sham recovery obviously did continue into 2011 as i was starting to suspect back last autumn.

 

Been very busy since then, not least with flat rental problems (more on that another time). I have not traded for very nearly a year now, but will at some point get back on that horse when we get a good bounce from these current sharp falls. I have been keeping a loose eye on the markets and the price of copper in particular as a leading indicator, looking for signs of a turn. I think the steepness of the falls of the last week or so is quite encouraging from a bear perspective - in stocks and copper. I notice too that the Nasdaq techs indices managed to get above their 2007 highs this year in what looks like a big ABC correction from the nadir of the 2002 tech bubble bursting (and so a min recovery there is in place). So, maybe just maybe the top of the phony recovery is in. I will keep a closer eye on things and look to get back into the markets (trading downside) if these current falls take on a nice 5 wave appearance and then bounce.

[drbubb]

I think this might have been my last post, nearly 10 months ago...

 

Thanks for that personal update, DD

 

Your comments are always welcome here

[John Doe]

I think this might have been my last post, nearly 10 months ago. The sham recovery obviously did continue into 2011 as i was starting to suspect back last autumn.

 

Been very busy since then, not least with flat rental problems (more on that another time). I have not traded for very nearly a year now, but will at some point get back on that horse when we get a good bounce from these current sharp falls. I have been keeping a loose eye on the markets and the price of copper in particular as a leading indicator, looking for signs of a turn. I think the steepness of the falls of the last week or so is quite encouraging from a bear perspective - in stocks and copper. I notice too that the Nasdaq techs indices managed to get above their 2007 highs this year in what looks like a big ABC correction from the nadir of the 2002 tech bubble bursting (and so a min recovery there is in place). So, maybe just maybe the top of the phony recovery is in. I will keep a closer eye on things and look to get back into the markets (trading downside) if these current falls take on a nice 5 wave appearance and then bounce.

 

Long time DD, hope all is well.

 

So, have you got your 5 waves yet?

[nbarter]

Long time DD, hope all is well.

 

So, have you got your 5 waves yet?

 

Yeah not bad thanks.

 

 

No, not 5 waves yet. Here is my favoured count over the last few years. 5 clear waves down to the March 2009 lows, an ABC from then 'till this spring and then what looks like the start of a new long term wave down since then. The count I have against the falls of the last few months may have to be tweaked if this wave subdivides. The trend line i have drawn on which stopped the falls of a couple of weeks ago should be broken if we get a 5th wave lower soon. It is that i am looking for to significantly raise the odds that these current falls have some serious legs.

[nbarter]

Worth keeping an eye (if nothing more) on the markets tomorrow, the 30th. It is a Bradley turn date, plus, if there were to be a high tomorrow it would make two equal up waves (in time) from the lows of the 9th. With wave A going from the lows on the 9th to the 17th, with B to the 22nd and then C up to ?.

 

Month ends and beginnings are often marked by strength so prob not worth trading this possible turn, but interesting to see how it pans out.

[drbubb]

DD, I wonder if you have any thought on this?

 

Tony Caldero is still medium-long term Bullish

 

But he thinks we are in a Bear Market, which will take the form of an A-B-C, with the A maybe now complete.

 

(Here's an excerpt from his weekend report):

 

Since the market reached an oversold condition for a bear market, this suggests the first significant decline is over. Therefore, we are not expecting five waves down, i.e. 2007-2008, for the first significant wave of this bear market. Only three waves down. This is why we have labeled this bear market with Major A, Major B and Primary A. Next we should get a choppy two month rally into October, taking the form of a double zigzag but one uptrend, and retracing at least 50% of the total decline thus far. This would suggest an uptrend to at least the OEW 1240 pivot, and possibly the 1261 or 1290 pivots. Then using the WROC buy signal as a guideline, the market suggests the uptrend should now be underway.

 

SHORT TERM

 

Support for the SPX is at 1176 and then 1168, with resistance at 1187 and then 1222. Short term momentum ended the week just below overbought. We updated the SPX hourly/daily charts to reflect the preferred count: Major wave A Jun low at SPX 1258, Major wave B July high at SPX 1356, and Major wave C (Primary wave A ‘green’) August low at SPX 1102/1121. Now we are expecting a two month abA-B-abC uptrend hitting, at minimum the OEW 1240 pivot and then the 1261 or 1290 pivots.

 

/more: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/

 

Yesterday, I loaded up with some puts and Bear spread with SPY over 121.

We had a gap up on light volume into a possible Turn day, so I did not find

it very convincing

[nbarter]

DD, I wonder if you have any thought on this?

 

 

 

Yesterday, I loaded up with some puts and Bear spread with SPY over 121.

We had a gap up on light volume into a possible Turn day, so I did not find

it very convincing

 

Yeah its possible and one of the reasons i wanted to see 5 nice complete waves down which we don't yet have in most markets (though do in some, e.g, Nasdaq 100), but i think his rosy scenario is unlikely. I cannot see, bar sudden hyperinflation which i think is very unlikely at this stage, how we are in the early stages of a big expansionary phase. Every days brings further bad news (and this is not the wall of worry stuff) but rather fundamental stuff like the UK's debt position being worse then ever, eurozone on the verge of serious serious problems etc etc so I can't see how the next few years will be anything but dire.

 

The market turned down near the close there, so if today's turn date is to deliver then we should see continued falls tomorrow. If this 5th wave does transpire then it will likely be relatively shortlived before we get a big bounce, perhaps on the back of some major 'good' news like QE3 or yet another 'good' eurozone bailout development.