drbubb 0 Report post Posted January 1, 2019 Year End price Recap Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change : YrE'18 : change : Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% : GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% : Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== : GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% : GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% : SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% : SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% : Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : : WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% : USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% : OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% : XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% : SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% : ======= Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides below $97 : : USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ... DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : DXY: $96.17, EUR: $1.147, GBP: $1.275, CAD: $0.737, AUD: $0.704, PHP: 52.50 (FYE'18) GDXJ - OIH vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba : FXFX : 2017-19.Q2 : Group #1 : update : JNUG ($9.76), UGLD ($94.65), GDXJ ($31.79) Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.52), CCO.t ($15.56), MUX.t ($2.02) OIH ($17.99) vs. Drillers: RDC ($11.13), MDR ($8.37), ESV ($4.03) .10d / == Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted January 3, 2019 (I explained a Timing issue in this entry in my Diary): BUYING NGD/Newgold Feb.$0.50 Calls ...was an end of the year trade. A bit like the Oil Service stocks*. (I thought we would see a shift from selling to buying in NGD, because it was : Biggest Loser of 2018, among Gold Miners: -73%.) Many were Selling during December to lock in Tax Losses. That pressure ends completely in the new year. And those who sold earlier may re-enter the stock, locking in a tax loss, and to establish a new position at Lower cost. === *Update on Oil Service stocks: YE'18 : OIH ( $14.03 ) vs. Drillers: RDC ( $8.39 ), MDR ( $6.54 ), ESV ( $3.56).10d / 01/02: $14.37 +2.42% vs. Drillers: $8.74 +4.17%, $7.16 +9.48%, $3.73, +4.78% - "... poised?", I asked. Let's see what happens to these stocks the coming days. OIH / Oil Service ... All-Data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / YE'18-update / Last: $14.03 / YrL: $13.13, H: $29.86 == Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted January 3, 2019 2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three MUX vs. GCM (tprff), NGD & GDXJ ... 3-mos : fr. 10/1/18 : 9/5/2018 : co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- / Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% / Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% / Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% / Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% / Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% / *cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018 === 12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% / Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% / shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% / MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% / 768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% / Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% / 00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% / 800. > 810. +00.0% / EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% / 769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% //oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k> 4.84k -30.9%/5.06k> 3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% / NW 224. > 260. +00.0% / 521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% / BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% / p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% / ==== Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted February 12, 2019 SILVER related Charts SIL ($26.35) - vs SLV, GLD ... update : SLV ($14.72, r-1.79) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%) Ratio : SIL-to-SLV : 1.79 SLV ($14.72,) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%) Ratio: SLV -to-UGL (r-38.2%) David Morgan - Silver Will Shine Again Kerry Lutz - audio MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/DavidMorgan07Feb19.mp3 SILVER should outpace Gold ... on the upside "Last month, gold rose 3.46%. Silver rose 3.94%. That’s only about 14% better, but the point is that this pattern is the norm, not the exception, when precious metals are rising. The last time precious metals prices were really on a tear, silver outperformed gold even more: From the bottom of the crash of 2008, London PM gold rose from $713.50 to $1,895 in September of 2011. Gold was up 165.6%. From the same starting point, London PM silver rose from $8.88 to $48.70 in April of 2011. Silver was up 448.4%—and in less time. This is why I’ve said that if you’re a gold bull—which I am this year—you should be a raging silver bull." > https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-02-08/Silver-Not-Just-the-Poor-Man-s-Gold.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted February 14, 2019 Gold has broken the downtrend & Resistance at $1300 / Might SIL (silver share etf) be next to breakout? GLD (gold etf) versus SIL ... update : $123.37, $26.13 Ratio: $26.13 / $123.37 = 21.2 == Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted February 28, 2019 SOXX Shock! : -1.20%. Has the stock market turned? 183.63 Change: -2.23 Open: 185.11 High: 185.11 Low: 181.6301 Volume: 980,095 Percent Change: -1.20% SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down? SPY fell just -0.04%. IWM rose +0.14% SOXX - etc ... 10d Top Holdings, as SOXX closed at $183.63 - 2.230, -1.20% SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down? Name Symbol % Assets Broadcom Inc : AVGO 8.94% $271.49 - 3.51, -1.28% Texas Instruments : TXN 7.98% $105.71 - 1.56, -1.45% Intel Corp : INTC 7.56%. $53.24 +0.01, +0.02% NVIDIA Corp : NVDA 6.96% $155.25 - 1.69, -1.08% Qualcomm Inc : QCOM 6.73% $53.04 +0.01, +0.02% Xilinx Inc. : XLNX 4.79% $123.27 +0.49, +0.40% Adv. Micro Devices : AMD 4.54% $23.48 - 0.73, -3.02% Lam Research : LRCX 4.28% $177.20 - 1.36, -0.76% Analog Devices : ADI 4.26%. $105.24 - 1.24, -1.17% Applied Materials. : AMAT 4.15%. $38.78 - 0.80, -2.02% SOXX is looking toppy And AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, too. AMD was down over 3% yesterday, the biggest drop among the Top10 components of the SOXX Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted March 4, 2019 TURNING Up (like Sh.Composite), or Rolling Down, like SLV might be doing now Three Different Prices ... update : 10d : Cycles - between Silver & Shanghai stocks NOT SURE how useful this indicator will be, but I may follow it for a while. They should both respond to monetary inflation, and China has been showing a dramatic loosening : 10d : Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted March 14, 2019 SLV looks likely to retest $14. SIL to retest $25.50-25.70? SLV / Silver etf ... update : 6mo : $14.24 -$0.27, -1.86% vol. 7.57M, Yield: n/a, PER: n/a SIL vs SLV/ Silver Shares vs. Silver ... update : 6mo : $26.28 -$0.59, -2.20% vol. 164.5k, Yield: 1.16%, PER: n/a Ratio: SIL to-SLV : $26.28 / $14.24 = R-1.00? == Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted April 1, 2019 US Dollar - is the Big Slide finally due? I am watching to see if there is a breakdown in these charts > Below $97 & then $96? DXY / Trade-weighted US Dollar... 3-yrs / 10d - Last: $97.06 - 0.17 / 10d Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted April 26, 2019 HOWZAT? A good day for gold & gold shares xx GDP Numbers Show Gold Is Learning To Live Without U.S. Dollar: Kitco News03:40PM Interest In Gold Is Growing Among Generalist Investors – Kitco News04:25PM Forget The Fed, Commodities Now In Focus At Jekyll Island Conference Kitco News04:09PM Why Is Gold Up When The U.S. Economy Grew 3.2%? Dive Deeper, Kitco News == Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted May 29, 2019 GOLD BACK So far, OVER that Gap down ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted September 1, 2019 ROLLING OVER? A Big Drop Ahead ! PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... update : 10d / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87. Late Aug. It rose into 8/30. Philippines PSEI / Possible Right Shoulder now in place at 8400, w/ recent rallyback to 8000 PSEI ... update : with Prop.Dev'l : 10d / Last: 7,980 + 87, + 1.10% Major property developers ROSE to a NEW PEAK at the time of the recent possible Right Shoulder PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019 If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted November 28, 2019 GOLD ready to move up soon? GOLD vs Bonds, including TIPS (inflation protected bonds) Made valuable discovery today, on what drives Gold price - Last week Tips Led?: GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44) from 5.Jul.19 : 10d / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= Gap:$2.06, r-101.5% UPDATED: / GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%... was: Gap:$2.06, r-101.5%, Gap swung by $5.76 ! RATIO & Gap:($3.71) r-97.41% But a GLD-TLT GAP Straddle: ie Buy GLD-Call / Sell TLT-Put ?? Such as: ... GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41% ======: 142C: 142P=strad / 140C: 140P=strad / 138C: 138P=strad / 136C: 136P= strad / GLD-Ja.: 0.66+ 5.35= $6.01 / 1.05+ 3.70= $4.75 / 1.67+ 2.31= $3.98 / 2.64+ 1.26= $3.90 / TLT -Ja1:1.28+ 2.83= $4.11 / 2.18+ 1.71= $3.89 / 3.42+ 0.95= $4.37 / 5.05+ 0.50= $5.55 / TLT -Ja. : 1.68+ 3.15= $4.83 / 2.61+ 2.03= $4.64 / 3.83+ 2.03= $5.86 / 5.30+ 0.74= $6.04 / G.c /T.p : 0.66+ 2.83= $3.49 / 1.05+ 2.03= $3.08 / 1.67+ 2.03= $3.70 / 2.64+ 0.74= $3.38 / GLD-Fb.: 1.32+ 5.80= $7.12 / 1.80+ 4.25= $6.05 / 2.47+ 2.88= $5.35 / 3.40+ 1.80= $5.20 / TLT -Fb.: 2.38+ 3.83= $6.21 / 3.33+ 2.74 = $6.07 / 4.55+ 1.93= $6.48 / 5.88+ 1.35= $7.23 / G.c /T.p : 1.32+ 3.83= $5.15 / 1.80+ 2.74 = $4.54 / 2.47+ 1.93= $4.40 / 3.40+ 1.35= $4.75 / ======:$139 strads: Jan./ exp. 1/17/20 : 51 days-/ Feb./ exp. 2/21/20: 86 days- / ======: 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 37.3%/ 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 48.5% / > GLD- : 1.32+ 2.97= $4.29 / 3.09%: 8.27%/ 2.11+ 3.53= $5.64/ 4.06%: 8.36%/ > TLT - : 2.78+ 1.28= $4.06 / 2.92%: 7.83%/ 3.88+ 2.33= $6.21/ 4.47%: 9.21%/ G.c /T.p: 1.32+ 1.28= $2.60/ 1.87%: 5.01%/ 2.11+ 2.33= $4.44/ 3.19%: 6.59%/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted March 8, 2020 HOW to Hedge a Gold position with Bond options (use Calls on TMV) TMV/20yr TBond 3xBear vs- dGLD & dSLV .. fr. 2015: 10.6.19: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / $6.09 -1.13, $20.88, $16.71 : 10.6.19: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d 10d : TLT-Gld-Slv-10d / $6.09 -1.13, $20.88, $16.71 // $166.77 +8.25, $157.55 +0.05, $16.18 -0.12 : TLT-Gld-Slv-10d / $166.77 +8.25, $157.55 +0.05, $16.18 -0.12 Gold & Bonds have shot up, while Silver has lagged - Gold-to-Silver ratio is up near the 100x High. : SLV-Gld-Tlt- 5yr : 1yr: 3mo / TLT: $166.77 / SLV: $16.18 = Ratio : SLV-Gld-Tlt since sep.2018 : SLV-Gld-Tlt-10d : 5yr / $16.18 -0.12, $157.55 +0.05, $166.77 +8.25 Ratio: TLT to-SLV: 10.3x , Has shot up since beginning of 2020, as Bond yields dropped Sometimes Silver Dropped when Bonds went up... But then Silver Rose when Bonds dropped == Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted July 26, 2020 NEAR A TOP? He sees a Top in Silver coming at $24-26. And then a 6-9 months correction, and a Stock bear market "Stocks could rollover from a double top within the next month. Then, as stocks fall, Gold and silver will rollover too." After the correction in silver, it will be ready for a really huge move to $48 and beyond. Chris Vermeulen: Caution Advised Before Gold Targets $5000 and Silver Targets $100+ He also sees the USD falling and is "in a major downtrend" ... to Major Support at $93-94... then a big bounce SPX "we are about to fill the last gap on the SPX. we are only 2.5% away. When we do that, stocks could head into something very bad on the downside' Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted October 22, 2020 GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44: r-100%) from 5.Jul.19 : Oct-19: 10d / 10.21.20: GLD:$180.60 / TLT:$158.70= r-113.8% Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drbubb 0 Report post Posted November 25, 2020 Is the Slide in Precious Metals finished? GLD ... YTD: 10d / Last: 169.59 -2.64, -1.53%. LOD: 168.86 vs yrH: 194.44, -13.2%- Last move up: 136 > 194.4 = 58.4. (194.4- 168.9= 25.5): -43.7% SLV ... YTD: 10d / Last: $21.63 -0.30, -1.37%. LOD: $21.41 vs yrH: $27.39, -31.8% Last move up: $18. > $27.4 = $9.4. $27.4- $21.4= 6.0): -63.8% == Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
