Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
drbubb

CHARTS : #2 - for Everyday Viewing

Recommended Posts

Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides below $97

idx24_usd_en_2.gif  : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : DXY: $96.17, EUR: $1.147, GBP: $1.275, CAD: $0.737, AUD: $0.704, PHP: 52.50 (FYE'18)

H0RJHT1.gif

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :

cfejGmZ.gif

FXFX : 2017-19.Q2 :

PXkDUt6.gif

Group #1 : update JNUG ($9.76), UGLD ($94.65), GDXJ ($31.79)

0KjKXAS.gif

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.52), CCO.t ($15.56), MUX.t ($2.02)

bBFSX6v.gif

OIH ($17.99) vs. Drillers: RDC ($11.13), MDR ($8.37), ESV ($4.03) .10d /

hQ5f6IB.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(I explained a Timing issue in this entry in my Diary):

BUYING NGD/Newgold Feb.$0.50 Calls

...was an end of the year trade. A bit like the Oil Service stocks*.
(I thought we would see a shift from selling to buying in NGD, because it was :  Biggest Loser of 2018, among Gold Miners: -73%.)
Many were Selling during December to lock in Tax Losses. That pressure ends completely in the new year.
And those who sold earlier may re-enter the stock, locking in a tax loss, and to establish a new position at Lower cost.

===

*Update on Oil Service stocks:

YE'18 : OIH ( $14.03 )  vs. Drillers: RDC ( $8.39 ), MDR ( $6.54 ), ESV ( $3.56).10d /
01/02: $14.37 +2.42% vs. Drillers: $8.74 +4.17%, $7.16 +9.48%, $3.73, +4.78%

- "... poised?", I asked.  Let's see what happens to these stocks the coming days.

4n4GyJU.gif

OIH / Oil Service ... All-Data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / YE'18-update / Last: $14.03 / YrL: $13.13, H: $29.86

EOhHinK.gif

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three

MUX vs. GCM (tprff), NGD & GDXJ ... 3-mos : fr. 10/1/18 : 9/5/2018 :

CuETRX1.gif

co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- /
Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. /
Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% /
Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% /
Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% /
Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% /
Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% /
*cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018
===
12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% /
Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% /
shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% /
MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% /  768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% /
Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% /  00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% /  800. > 810. +00.0% /
EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% /  769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% /
/oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k> 4.84k -30.9%/5.06k> 3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% /
NW 224. > 260. +00.0% /  521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% /
BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% /
p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% /
====

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SILVER related Charts

Yypu3MC.png

SIL ($26.35) - vs SLV, GLD ... update : SLV ($14.72, r-1.79) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)

sZymRLh.gif

Ratio : SIL-to-SLV : 1.79

ikyIJc3.png

SLV ($14.72,) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)

BJnEEk3.gif

Ratio: SLV -to-UGL (r-38.2%)

3XVGXKj.png

David Morgan - Silver Will Shine Again Kerry Lutz - audio

MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/DavidMorgan07Feb19.mp3

SILVER should outpace Gold ... on the upside

"Last month, gold rose 3.46%. Silver rose 3.94%. That’s only about 14% better, but the point is that this pattern is the norm, not the exception, when precious metals are rising.

The last time precious metals prices were really on a tear, silver outperformed gold even more:

  • From the bottom of the crash of 2008, London PM gold rose from $713.50 to $1,895 in September of 2011. Gold was up 165.6%.
  • From the same starting point, London PM silver rose from $8.88 to $48.70 in April of 2011. Silver was up 448.4%—and in less time.

This is why I’ve said that if you’re a gold bull—which I am this year—you should be a raging silver bull."

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-02-08/Silver-Not-Just-the-Poor-Man-s-Gold.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gold has broken the downtrend & Resistance at $1300

Might SIL (silver share etf) be next  to breakout?

GLD (gold etf) versus SIL ... update : $123.37, $26.13

dj88suE.gif

Ratio: $26.13 / $123.37 = 21.2

z0bQvUs.png

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOXX Shock! : -1.20%. Has the stock market turned?

183.63
Change:
arrow -2.23
Open:
185.11
High:
185.11
Low:
181.6301
Volume:
980,095
Percent Change:
-1.20%

SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down?

SPY fell just -0.04%.  IWM rose +0.14%

SOXX - etc ... 10d

1oeNZLO.gif

Top Holdings,     as SOXX closed at $183.63 - 2.230, -1.20%

SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down?

Name                        Symbol  % Assets
Broadcom Inc         :  AVGO    8.94%    $271.49 - 3.51, -1.28%
Texas Instruments :  TXN      7.98%    $105.71 - 1.56, -1.45%
Intel Corp                 :  INTC     7.56%.      $53.24 +0.01, +0.02%
NVIDIA Corp            : NVDA     6.96%    $155.25 - 1.69, -1.08%
Qualcomm Inc         : QCOM    6.73%      $53.04 +0.01, +0.02%
Xilinx Inc.                 :  XLNX     4.79%    $123.27 +0.49, +0.40%
Adv. Micro Devices :  AMD      4.54%      $23.48 - 0.73, -3.02%
Lam Research          :  LRCX    4.28%    $177.20 - 1.36, -0.76%
Analog Devices        :  ADI        4.26%.   $105.24 - 1.24, -1.17%
Applied Materials.   :  AMAT    4.15%.     $38.78 - 0.80, -2.02%

SOXX is looking toppy

X1OOKHt.png

And AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, too. 

f2rO2uX.png

AMD was down over 3% yesterday, the biggest drop among the Top10 components of the SOXX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TURNING Up (like Sh.Composite), or Rolling Down, like SLV might be doing now

Three Different Prices ... update : 10d :

PFQSQD7.png

Cycles - between Silver & Shanghai stocks

DS2iwh4.png

NOT SURE how useful this indicator will be, but I may follow it for a while.

They should both respond to monetary inflation, and China has been showing a dramatic loosening

: 10d :

856jAfT.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SLV looks likely to retest $14. SIL to retest $25.50-25.70?

SLV / Silver etf ... update : 6mo : $14.24 -$0.27, -1.86% vol. 7.57M, Yield: n/a, PER: n/a

1WQKb1Z.gif

SIL vs SLV/ Silver Shares vs. Silver ... update : 6mo : $26.28 -$0.59, -2.20% vol. 164.5k, Yield: 1.16%, PER: n/a

GK9faVU.gif

Ratio: SIL to-SLV : $26.28 / $14.24 = R-1.00?

S065XhL.png

==

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

US Dollar - is the Big Slide finally due?

I am watching to see if there is a breakdown in these charts > Below $97 & then $96?

DXY / Trade-weighted US Dollar... 3-yrs / 10d - Last: $97.06 - 0.17

iCDnpQ2.gif

/ 10d

zScxlIb.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GOLD BACK

gold.gif?0.6926577608530164

So far, OVER that Gap down !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ROLLING OVER?  A Big Drop Ahead !

PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... update : 10d / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87. Late Aug. It rose into 8/30.

9Asz0gk.gif

Philippines PSEI / Possible Right Shoulder now in place at 8400, w/ recent rallyback to 8000

 PSEI ... update : with Prop.Dev'l : 10d / Last: 7,980 + 87, + 1.10%

tcCDa9a.gif

Major property developers ROSE to a NEW PEAK at the time of the recent possible Right Shoulder

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019

wGnqUMz.gif

If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks

The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×