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drbubb

McEwen Mining (MUX) : 205,000 /yr. Gold miner (est.)

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MUX : Watching this with interest now it’s back at the lows. 

Whats knocking this Dr B, why the smack down? - Jerpy

=====

MUX : 10yr : 4yr : 3yr : 12mo : Last $1.72 @ 12/11/18 / (since 7/2016): MUX-vs-GDXJ : MUX-vs-SPX : s

LrU1n5c.gif

I believe they are doing a fund-raising after a weak quarter... and there is likely to be some year-end tax selling now.

I have some shares already. Far less than the GCM shares that I hold.

Ratio to GCM

zgctKOZ.png

... is at Low for the year - but is still  bit of a "falling knife" and looks headed to 75-76%, possibly lower if GCM breaks out

Here's the MUX-to-GDXJ ratio:

XSdyy1F.png

At about 8% could be a "cheap way into a GDXJ-type exposure" - if GDXJ flies, MUX could fly more

If I add more, it will be through MUX Calls possibly.

But I shall study it more first, because the relative weakness is not comforting

And the stock has been called "overvalued" by some.  We are probably seeing some "tax selling" now

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Thanks for the feedback Dr B

High on my watch list having sold off but will sit on hands awhile longer.

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Production and Costs (US$)
  Q3 YTD Full Year
2018 Guidance
2017 2018 2017 2018
Consolidated Production          
Gold (oz.) 19,051 33,806 61,338 105,834 128,000
Silver (oz.) 749,749 745,172 2,252,003 2,213,254 3,225,000
GEOs(1) 29,047 43,742 91,364 135,344 171,000

McEwen Mining misses by $0.01

SA NewsWed, Oct. 311 Comment
SA TranscriptsWed, Oct. 3117 Comments

 McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE: MUX) (TSX: MUX) today reported third quarter results for the period ended Sept. 30, 2018 (“Q3”). During Q3, gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) produced increased by 51% and all-in sustaining costs per GEO sold decreased by 3% compared to Q3 2017. Net cash flow from the business excluding project development costs was $2.2 million or$0.01 per share. Total expenditure of $35.5 million was incurred to further our long-term production growth plans at the Gold Bar, Black Fox, Fenix and Los Azules projects. Our consolidated net loss for Q3 was $13.3 million or $0.04 per share.

During the first nine months of 2018, GEOs produced increased by 48% and all-in sustaining costs per GEO sold was unchanged compared to the same period in 2017. Net cash flow from the business excluding project development costs was $20.8 million or $0.06 per share. Total expenditure of $84.5 million was incurred to further our long-term production growth plans at the Gold Bar, Black Fox, Fenix and Los Azules projects. Our consolidated net loss for the first nine months of 2018 was$23.9 million or $0.07 per share.

McEwen Mining announces $15M strategic financing

McEwen Mining (MUX -0.3%announces bought deal private placement offering of 6,634,000 flow-through shares, representing ~2% of its outstanding shares.  The funding consists of $15M (~C$20M) at $2.26 per share (~C$3.02) that will be used for generative exploration activities for properties in the Timmins region.  The offer price represents a premium of 26% over the closing price of McEwen on the TSX as of December 5, 2018. The offering is expected to close by December 21, 2018.

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MUX at or near a Buy point maybe?

MUX -to-GDXJ Ratio : 6.14%... MUX ($1.74 -0.01) / GDXJ ($28.33 -0.04)

hVn4F57.png

==

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Rob McEwen On Why The Next Gold Bull Market Is Already Underway

Gold's bull market may go for 7-9 more years

 

Published on 21 Nov 2018

There are few in the gold market who have seen and experienced more than Rob McEwen of McEwan Mining. Which is why we were fortunate to have him join Chris Marcus on Inside the Markets to explain what most in the investment community have yet to discover.

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MUX has a High short interest - almost 30 days - vs. 2 d- NEM, x d- GG, x d- ABX

> short-int. http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=mux&submit=Short+Quote™

Sym : Price MktCap: ShsOS : ShortOS: PctFlt. : Days : EstVol. : vs-High : vs200d :

MUX : $1.70: $531.M :  257.M :  45.7 M :  17.8 % : 29.8d: 00.0M : - 56.2% :  - 22.9 % :

OOO : $0.00: $0.00 B : 00.0 bn : 000.0 M : 00.0 % : 00.0d: 00.0M : - 00.0 % : + 00.0 % :

=====

 

Historical chart

MUX+Short+interest.png

g311841mmi007.gif

Biggest Short positions: http://online.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nyseshort-highlites.html

Summary : most of those on the List are below 10 days. Includes: WFT (4d), RIG (8d), ESV (7d)

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MUX vs GLD (Gold etf) ... from 2.20.16 : MUX.vsMNT (CAD Gold etf) :

LMhaEkv.gif

/ 2 /

Ratio : MUX to-GLD
VT41hUc.png

==

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2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three

co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- /
Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. /
Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% /
Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% /
Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% /
Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% /
Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% /
*cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018
===
12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% /
Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% /
shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% /
MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% /  768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% /
Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% /  00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% /  800. > 810. +00.0% /
EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% /  769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% /
/oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k>4.84k -30.9%/5.06k>3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% /
NW 224. > 260. +00.0% /  521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% /
BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% /
p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% /
====

 SUMMARY

1. GCM / Gran Columbian looks very cheap by comparison with the others
+ Tiny MktCap of $100M; that is only 38% of GCM's $5.40 Book Value
+ Adding debt, the Enterprize Value (EV) is only $150 Million
+ That's a tiny $690 per ounce of production: 217k oz, & growing
+ GCM is showing good Free Cash flow & profits - looks very cheap, performing well.

2. MUX / McEwen Mining has a well-regarded CEO with a big personal stake
+ Annual production was expected to grow by 16% 128k oz in 2018
+ Adding gold equiv. from Copper, etc, 171k GEqv oz expected, up 12.5% over 2017
+ Valuation looks stretched at $3,630 per oz. of GEO. That's down -28% from prior year.
+ But the Market has had confidence in MUX's ability to grow production in future years
+ 2019 should be another UP year in production, because...  (Black Fox Mine is starting up?)
+ Has high historical beta to Gold prices, so could climb 2-4X faster than Gold

3. NGD / Newgold was a big loser in 2018, down -73%, highest drop among mid-producers
+ NGD's production costs @xxx were higher than expected. That caused price drop
+ NGD carries over $800M in debt, and so was forced the sell off two mines in 2018
+ Valuation dropped sharply, so by year end... EV / oz. was down almost half to $3,260/oz.
+ Should be cheap enough to bring a bounce, if production keeps growing and the new
management can bring some operational improvements. Gold price might help too.

 

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MUX has been disappointing... with the share price under-performing peers recently

MUX / McEwen Mining ... 5-yr :

uXpUUWy.gif

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Production figures have been released for Q4

TORONTO, Jan. 15, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE: MUX) (TSX: MUX) reports annual consolidated production in 2018 was 135,124 gold ounces and 3,032,727 silver ounces, or 175,561 gold equivalent ounces(1)(“GEOs”).

Consolidated Production Summary

  Q4 Full Year Full Year
2018 Guidance
2017 2018 2017 2018
Gold (oz) 48,609 29,291 109,947 135,124 128,000
Silver (oz) 926,739 819,473 3,178,742 3,032,727 3,225,000
GEOs(1) 60,965 40,217 152,329 175,561 171,000
(1) Using a 75:1 gold to silver ratio.

(updating the Table):

2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three

co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- /
Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. /
Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% /
Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% /
Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% /
Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% /
Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% /

Q4: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 29.3 :- 39.7% / 61.0 > 40.2 : - 34.1% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% /
Yr.: 174. > 218. :+25.3% / 110. > 135. :+22.7% / 152.> 175.5:+15.2% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% /
*cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018

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On 1/17/2019 at 4:21 PM, drbubb said:

MUX has been disappointing... with the share price under-performing peers recently

MUX / McEwen Mining ... 5-yr :

uXpUUWy.gif

Took the hit on this one last week before news release, which despite looking better, doesn’t seemed to have inspired the market.

Is it the high short position that is controlling this?

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MUX needs better news and some help from the Gold price.

Very disappointing recently.

If gold jumps above $1300, the shorts may get squeezed, something that boss McEwen would love to do

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I lent a hand to this today by buying half of my intended position. If it drops more I will acquire the other half.

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54 minutes ago, hector said:

I lent a hand to this today by buying half of my intended position. If it drops more I will acquire the other half.

I’m waiting a bit longer but getting twitchy to jump back in.

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6 minutes ago, jerpy said:

I’m waiting a bit longer but getting twitchy to jump back in.

I agree that the stock doesn't inspire confidence, but at the same time gold looks like it's proving itself so this will be a long term hold.

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I have some shares, and am not adding at the moment.  The stock is not trading well.

Maybe that will change if gold trades a bit higher, or if some positive news flow comes out.

I do think McEwen's team is capable of producing good news and rising production, but there has been some months of drought in market-moving positive news

 

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If Gold keeps rising, MUX will have its day

3oMXno4.gif

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MUX has correlated with AG (First Majestic Silver) over time

Including in the Big spikes of 2016... but recently they have both lagged many other Juniors

AG - vs-MUX .... update : 10d / Last: $6.11 / $1.80 = R-3.39

JI1mqZ3.gif

Ratio: MUX -to-AG ... AG may be about to breakout of its historic connection to MUX (if MUX still lags)

npV2g6L.png

 

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Your picks are on fire Dr B, shame I didn’t believe in GZZ, little bit like MUX.

For me McEwan, the man himself seems a good guy watching videos, I’ve sent them an email to ask questions, just don’t believe in the stock right now and staying out but watching.

Glad I followed your GCM and WM.t prompts though, particularly GCM. You’re much more disciplined about selling than I ever am, I suppose that comes with a cynical trading view. 

- Jerpy

===

3 out of 4 is not bad, eh?

GZZ is winning because of its large holding in RZZ, which I think is worth $13 or more.

Can't get them all right.  I'd be buying MUX now if it was performing better,  and I could be more sure about future good news.

Gold bar has been delayed a bit, but it should start up this month

Maybe MUX will benefit if/when the ounces start being produced and reported.

But the new performance might be taken for granted.  A big discovery near Gold bar or elsewhere would help.

I have enough GCM, that I can afford to take some profits.  But I am now sitting with more cash than I am accustomed to having.

Seeking opportunities in Oil & Gas (yesterday's jump in O&G shares came a bit to quickly for me.)

- And maybe in Silver-related calls

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TPRff (GCM in US$) to MUX ratio - May go a bit higher - above 180%, >190%?

UaLlaZj.png

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On 2/14/2019 at 1:40 PM, hector said:

Really surprised if this won't bust 1.82 resistance today given the robust gold price. 

Maybe as Dr Bubb says, it just needed that little bit of help with the gold price. I’m back in today, nothing major but dipped a toe.

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By the way, I added a "very useful" holding of Silver / SLV calls to my current TOP 5

- see charts: 5x

WM.t  : 0.245 UNCH, +0.00% : disappointing, still digesting recent up moves maybe
Gcm.t : $4.07 +0.07, +1.75%
GZZ.v : $0.37 +.025, +7.25%
(rzz.v) : 12.90 +0.24, +1.90%
Mux.t : 1.875  +.085, +4.75%
SLV- : $14.83 +0.18, +1.23%
(Sil-) : $26.72 +0.27, +1.00%
(Gdxj): 32.84 +0.51, +1.58%
(Gld): 124.85 +0.79, +0.63%

Nice to see MUX getting a bid, at last ! - last $1.87.

Close Over $1.95-2.00 will be a breakout of sorts

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Probably enough time to the end of the month to break 2.00 resistance. Might end up congested at 2.20 unless gold keeps plowing through and breaks 1367 resistance.

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