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Canadian Convertible Debenture Market

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Underlying shares (of discounted Debs)

DHX -etc. from 1/1/2016 :

aqbOMDJ.gif

==

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Conv. Are Testing resistance, and may soon get a shot up... Or rollover

Underlying shares (of discounted Debs) / DHX -etc. from 1/1/2016 :

PU0nx8U.gif

: BCV-etc ... Update : 10d : $21.59 w/ 4.63% yield ($1.00 div.?) - BCV is a us convertible fund (shows how cv bonds are performing)

0xuk3eG.gif

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Underlying shares (of discounted Debs) / DHX -etc. from 1/1/2016 :

13yxApe.gif

: BCV-etc ... Update : 10d : $21.59 w/ 4.63% yield ($1.00 div.?) - BCV is a us convertible fund (shows how cv bonds are performing)

0xuk3eG.gif

dqGyHTD.gif

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EIF.t /Exchange Income Corp. (TSE)

... update : 10d : yahoo-fin./ Last: $38.29 (cv price: C$49 ) YTM: 5.75%

fFEkqlC.gif

Cv Bond / Last: $99.98 / EXCHANGE INCOME CORP 5.75 PCT DEBS - http://www.exchangeincomecorp.ca/

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NEWS

2019-07-17 07:58 ET - News Release

Mr. Mike Pyle reports

EXCHANGE INCOME CORPORATION ANNOUNCES JULY 2019 DIVIDEND

The directors of Exchange Income Corp. have declared eligible dividends totalling 18.25 cents per share for the month ended July 31, 2019, payable Aug. 15, 2019, to shareholders of record at the close of business on July 31, 2019.

Eligible shareholders have the opportunity to reinvest their dividends in accordance with the corporation's dividend reinvestment and share purchase plan. Additional details can be found in the investor information section of the corporation's website.

The dividend is designated as an eligible dividend under the Income Tax Act (Canada) and any corresponding provincial legislation. Under this legislation, individuals resident in Canada may be entitled to enhanced dividend tax credits which reduce income tax otherwise payable.

About Exchange Income Corp.

Exchange Income is a diversified acquisition-oriented company, focused in two sectors: aerospace and aviation services and equipment, and manufacturing.

 

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STAT DATA: Deb.Price is Xx/19
Bd.symb.: coup.: matur.: conv.: LAST: BkVal: %ytm : $deb.pr: model: u/o-val: EntVal.: Ebit.: EV/eb: PER :

SGY.db.- : 5.75%: 12/22: $2.75: $1.20: $2.63: 8.44%: $92.02: $96.81: -5.21%: $854m $138m: 6.21: N/A :
SGY.db.A: 6.75%: 06/24: $2.25: $1.20: $2.63: 6.93%: $99.25: 100.63: -1.39%: $854m $138m: 6.21: N/A :
EIF.db.K  : 5.75%: 03/26: 49.00: 38.22: 19.21: 5.77%: $99.89: 107.69: -7.81%: $2.30b  $281m 8.19: 17.8 :

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Added to my Ownership of :
Alaris Debs / AD.DB / 5.50% maturing: 30-Jun-2024 (4.7 yrs) /

conv.@ $24.25: 41.2371 common shares for each $1,000

AD.t / Alaris Royalties ... All-data : fr. May'13 : 6mo : 10d/

Last: $19.49 /vs. cv@ $24.25 : 80.4% / Deb: $95. = 20.5%/ Cash Yield: 5.79% + 5.3/4.7= 1.12% = 6.91%

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: fr. May'13 : fr. 2016 :

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dividend history

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> ALARIS https://www.alarisroyalty.com/investors/presentations-and-events

====
YearE Price : Divid : Yield%  $TNX : Differ.:.Bk.Val.: Rev/sh: %chg.: (Adj): NCF/sh: %Div
2008: $9.00: $1.44 : 16.0% : 2.10%: 13.9%:
2009: $9.15: $0.84 : 9.18% : 3.70%: 5.48%:
2010: 11.64: $1.02 : 8.76% : 3.30%: 5.46%:
2011: 18.00: $1.14 : 6.33% : 1.95%: 4.38%:
2012: 23.00: $1.18 : 5.48% : 1.70%: 3.78%: $ ????  : $1.53: + ?????: (0.35) $1.26  : 93.7% : 22,337sh
2013: 29.87: $1.36 : 4.55% : 2.90%: 1.65%: $14.98: $1.97: +28.8%: (0.33) $1.64 : 82.9% : 28,694sh
2014: 35.36: $1.48 : 4.18% : 1.90%: 2.28%: $16.52: $2.28: +15.7%: (0.65) $1.63 : 90.8% : 32,072sh
2015: 23.50: $1.57 : 6.68% : 2.10%: 4.58%: $19.69: $2.44: +7.02%: (0.81) $1.65 : 95.2% : 34,390sh
2016: 23.95: $1.62 : 6.76% : 2.50%: 4.26%: $17.83: $2.75: +13.1%: (0.73) $2.02 : 80.2% : 36,711sh
2017: 20.67: $1.62 : 7.84% : 2.40%: 5.44%: $16.45: $2.44: - 11.3%: (0.59) $1.85 : 87.6% : 36,481sh
2018: 16.99: $1.62 : 9.54% : 2.69%: 6.85%: $17.29: $2.75: +12.3%: (0.60) $2.15 : 75.3% : 36,496sh
9/’19: 19.42: $1.65 : 8.50% : 1.67%: 6.83%: $17.23:
Aver.:  2009 -2019 : 7.12% :

> Financials: https://www.alarisroyalty.com/investors/financials#2019

YearE Price : Divid : Yield% $-Revs..: perSh : Prev.Yr.: Other: (Adj): EPS.fd %Revs : - NOTES -
2016: 23.95: $1.62: 6.76%: $00.00m: $2.75: +13.1% (0.00m) (0.73) $0.00 : 00.0%/ (36.?? sh)
q1'17: 22.31: $.405 : 7.26%: $20.88m: $0.57: ———%: (0.35m) (0.25) $0.32: 56.1%
q2’17: 23.03: $.405 : 7.03%: $22.78m: $0.62: ———%: $3.85m: (0.24) $0.38: 61.3%
q3’17: 20.57: $.405 : 7.88%: $23.78m: $0.65: ———%: 27.57m: (1.35) (0.60) <0.0%> (50.8) Impairmt.
q4’17: 20.67: $.405 : 7.84%: $21.63m: $0.59: ———%: $0.00m: (0.37) $0.22: 37.3%
2017: 20.67: $1.62: 7.84%: $89.07m: $2.42: - 11.3%: 27.95m: (2.10) $0.32: 13.2%/ (36.754 sh)
q1'18: 19.01: $.405 : 8.52%: $23.64m: $0.64: +13.2%: $5.41m: (0.73) (0.09) <0.0%> (26.0) BadDebt
q2’18: 15.94: $.405 : 10.2%: $28.44m: $0.77: +24.8%: $6.92m: (0.04) $0.73: 94.8%
q3’18: 20.29: $.405 : 7.98%: $22.69m: $0.62: - 4.58%: $7.11m: (0.10) $0.52: 83.9%
q4’18: 16.99: $.413 : 9.54%: $25.31m: $0.69: +3.95%: $0.17m: (0.40) $0.29: 42.0%/ (36.766sh)
2018: 16.99: $1.62: 9.54%: 100.08m: $2.72: +12.3%: 19.61m: (1.07) $1.65: 60.7%
q1'19: 21.08: $.413 : 7.84%: $27.66m: $0.75: +17.0%: (5.27m) (0.44) $0.31: 41.3%
q2’19: 18.81: $.413 : 8.78%: $27.40m: $0.74: - 3.66%: $8.41m: (0.14) $0.60: 81.1%
===== 

In December of 2018 the U.S. Treasury issued proposed regulations which provided administrative guidance and clarified certain aspects of U.S. Tax Reform. The proposed regulations are complex and comprehensive, and considerable uncertainty continues to exist until the final regulations are released, which is expected to occur later in 2019. As these proposed regulations have not been enacted as at June 30, 2019, their impact has not been reflected in income tax expense. However, if the proposed regulations are enacted as currently drafted, certain provisions could be effective commencing January 1, 2019. Based on the Corporation’s current capital structure, the resulting increase to income tax expense of the Company for the period ended, June 30, 2019 would be an increase of approximately $5.5 million

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AUG. 2019

Risk ——: UnderV / Company — : Coupon : Maturity : Db.Price: Y.T.M.
Lower:
ARE.DB.C : 6.05% / Aecon Group : 5.00% : 31-Dec-23 : $105.10 : 3.71%
Mod.  :
AD.DB       : 9.53% / Alaris Royalty: 5.50% : 30-Jun-24 : $  95.75 : 6.54%
EIF.DB.K.  : 7.85% / Exch.Inc.Corp: 5.75% : 31-Mar-26 : $100.24: 5.70%
EIF.DB.J   : 5.37% / Exch.Inc.Corp: 5.35% : 30-Jun-25 : $100.25 : 5.30%

+ CHE.db.D : ...

Underlying shares (of discounted Debs)

1/ EIF-etc. : fr. Jun.2017 : (updated 9/5/19)

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COMMENTARY - from the creator of the Peanut Portfolio

Market Commentary - Super Quick Points (August 30, 2019)

  • Hope you've had a nice summer.
  • As you ought to be aware, global trade concerns and terrible politically driven trade policies have thrown uncertainty into the global economy, and central banks are on a dovish stance in response.
  • I expect at least two more rate cuts from the US Fed before Christmas, and maybe one cut from the Bank of Canada (which has an overheated housing problem in Vancouver and Toronto to worry about).
  • Yield curve inversion (i.e., yield on a 10-year bond is less than the yield on 2-year bond or, if you prefer, yield on a 10-year bond is less than the yield on a 3-month treasury bill) in both the US and Canada is now clearly a thing. Note that sustained yield curve inversion (based on the the 10-year and 3-month yields) in the US has successfully predicted an economic recession in each of the last seven (7) US recessions.  Historically, the lead time from signal to recession is around 18 months.  We will see if this predictor makes it 8 for 8 sometime around early 2021. 
  • Stock markets are around record highs, even with a bit of volatility in August.  Note, however, we are getting to that spooky time of year in September and October where severe adverse market events or tripping hazard.  Also note that stock markets tend to lead economic cycles, so if the bond market is right about recession in 18 months ... 
  • Not to fear-monger, but there are risks in the system.  A Canadian federal election in October and, more significantly, a US presidential election next November will both be acrimonious in nature with unpredictable effects on markets.  
  • That said, with rates heading lower and a still (somehow) buoyant stock market, convertible debentures have exceeded all expectations so far in 2019.  As measured by the -date Peanut Convertible Debentures Index™, convertible debentures are up 10.47% year-to to August 30, 2019. 
  • It would be unreasonable to expect this type of continued performance in the near-future, however, not with the kind of risks we are facing.  
  • As per usual, stay diversified out there, and focus on quality issues and returns for the long-term. 

> source: https://convertibledebentures.blogspot.com/

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xx

 

Globe says Invesque downgraded to "speculative buy"

2019-08-22 07:46 ET - In the News

The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Aug. 22, edition that Industrial Alliance Securities analyst Brad Sturges lowered his rating for Invesque to "speculative buy" from "strong buy" following a "noisy" second quarter. The Globe's David Leeder writes in the Eye On Equities column that Mr. Sturges trimmed his share target to $7.25 from $7.50 (all figures U.S.). Analysts on average target the shares at $7.55. Mr. Sturges says in a note: "We do admit that Invesque's share price and recent earnings results have not lived up to our expectations. Furthermore, a near-term positive catalyst to materially narrow Invesque's discount valuation may be lacking given the company's recent decline in FD AFFO [fully diluted adjusted funds from operations] per share, and the company's above-average investments risks that include an elevated FD AFFO payout ratio, above average financial leverage employed, high geographic and operating tenant concentrations, perceived U.S. SNF sector operating challenges, foreign currency exposure, and low share liquidity.

However, we continue to view Invesque's shares as undervalued relative to its U.S. seniors housing and SNF REIT/REOC peers, and to its estimated NAV."

xx

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