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drbubb

DrBubb's Diary - May 2018 Trading - v.112

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BTS / bitcoin ... 12mos :

Sw9kbRK.png

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Topping action in SPX / SPY ?

SPY ... 6-mos :

HTTarVc.gif

BOT again at under $17 on Tuesday the puts I had sold at $24 = Jan.2018 - Spy $285P

Here's an update on Straddle Pricing

12/31: $266.86 ==== : ======/ 11.04%/ Jan2019: b-o : $285P / $285-C: Straddle (%SPY) d>1.18 /Sqrt= aVix : %VIX
02/02: $275.45 - 6.13:  - 2.18%/ 17.31%/ $19.43-19.85: $19.64 / $11.25: $30.89 (11.21%) 351d: /.981= 11.43 : 66.0%
02/05: $263.93 - 11.5:  - 4.18%/ 37.32%/ $29.00-34.00: $31.50 / $08.00: $39.50 (14.97%) 348d: /.976= 15.34 : 41.1%
02/15: $273.03 +3.44: +1.28%/ 19.13%/ $20.77-21.07: $20.92 / $10.53: $31.45 (11.52%) 338d: / .962= 11.98 : 62.6%
03/07: $272.78 - 0.10:  - 0.04%/ 17.76%/ $18.50-23.50: $21.00 / $09.42: $30.42 (11.15%) 318d: / .933= 11.95 : 67.3%
03/29:  $271.65 - 2.78: - 1.01%/ 19.97%/ $00.00-00.00: $26.70 / $06.30: $33.00 (12.15%) 296d: / .901= 13.49 : 67.6%
04/18:  $270.39 +0.20: +0.07%/ 15.61%/ $19.84-20.04: $19.94 / $06.60: $26.54 (09.82%) 276d: / .870= 11.28 : 72.3%
05/23 : $273.36 +0.75: +0.27%/ 12.99%/ $16.82-17.04: $16.94 / $05.58: $22.52 (08.24%) 241d / .813= 10..14 : 78.0%

 

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The 900d MA was shattered

GCM closed at C$ 3.19 +$0.35 : +12.32% ... 10d

AiUh4Xx.gif

It did however leave a "breakaway" gap at $2.85 (= 900d AM)

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wizard_of_twitter_tweet_web.jpg?width=73

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(From the Generative Exploration thread):

" I might be overly cautious here, but I would have thought that getting hold of a great valuable asset is one thing, but ..."

That write-up was an excerpt from a longer article - and was not mine.

I haven't yet analyzed the company.  But I plan to look at it more carefully.

Just looking at the chart (above & below) I see that it is VERY thinly traded, and that is a big warning sign, since you will often see a thinly traded stock having an asset injected, and then get  strong promotion with stories like this.  I wouldn't recommend buying any unless you take a much closer look first

(I added the following warning from readers here):

VIVA GOLD / "excerpt from write-up (invest cautiously, if at all)"

VAU.v ... update

MZqSZpe.gif

BTW, a share where I have invested, after doing more research, a company I regard as serious & invest-able with solid management is

McEwen Mining / MUX ... update

joDpc9A.gif

I own shares, bought below $2.00, and Nov.$1.50 wts, which cost me 70 cents - ie, I breakeven at $2.20.

McEwen Mining is run by famous mining investor, Rod McEwen who ran and built up Goldcorp, one of the most successful gold mining

companies on the planet, and MUX is his newest major project. 

> There's already a thread on MUX at:

I am also already invested in GZZ.v, FF.t, and some other small miners or explorers, but not every share I look at here

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BITCOIN / BTS ... 5mo :

CdY6XcE.png

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jsMX7Eg.png

GOLD-in-EUR - a breakout may have started

K8Yhp23.png

Gold-in-Sterling ... may also be breaking out

Lttzj1p.png

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DeFqjWsV4AEa-NN.jpg

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‘’Biggest Ever Change’’ In Oil Markets Could Send Prices Higher

Crude oil pipeline

Iran and Venezuela have dominated the oil market discourse for a while and will continue to do so in the coming months. Fears of supply shortages amid a tighter market have stoked an oil price rally that saw Brent Crude hitting $80 a barrel last week.

But an upcoming regulation that analysts have called “the biggest change in oil market history” and the “the most disruptive change in the refining industry” is lurking just around the corner, and experts say that it will drive oil prices higher as it will fundamentally shift the demand pattern for fuels.

The regulation concerns significantly limiting the sulfur content in the fuel that ships use, in a bid to curb emissions from the shipping industry.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil will be allowed to be used for ships. The global sulfur limit on fuel oil will be set at 0.50 percent m/m (mass/mass) in 2020, a significant cut from the 3.5 percent m/m global limit currently in place.

> https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Biggest-Ever-Change-In-Oil-Markets-Could-Send-Prices-Higher.html?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=idealmedia&utm_campaign=oilprice.com&utm_term=68762&utm_content=1

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Silver - to Gold -  ready to run possibly
Q6fsTk8.png

Larry Pesavento has been reluctant to stay long gold

"because the Euro is too weak"

xgOYgfv.png

 

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LARRY PESAVENTO is a short term trader and a very good one

pic_LarryPesavento.jpg > Thu-MP3 : Fri-MP3 :

Larry said he "sold at a small profit" and still likes the set-up for Gold.

gold.gif

I think he sold above $1300.  (if so, he was/is able to repurchase at a lower price.)

He said he thought he would buy back in "soon", but did not want to stay long, while the EUR was so weak.

(Larry has a 24 hour beeper, and when the EUR strengthens at any time, he may jump back in; may have already.)

Let's see:

Here's EUR vs. GLD & GBS & HK-2480-Gold  ... 10d : 2mo :

RYgms0Q.gif

When the large 2%+ gap narrows, and/or when EUR starts climbing again on the 10d chart, I expect he will go long again.

Over 2 mos - you can see they clearly move together

897Ranp.gif

My own trading is not as short term as his, but I am looking for an entry point in buying some Gold shares

BTW. that yawning gap has meant that Gold-in-EUR and Silver-in-EUR is rising

8SqmuEe.png

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Gold versus Euro, Longer Term ... 10yr : 5yr : 4yr : 2yr : 12mo :

VGAUODg.gif

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SPX in EUR has hit a New HIGH

8eDbPCQ.png

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CAN GOLD be THIS Heroic too?

MALI Spiderman, a hero in Paris

spiderman.0.0.jpg

Malian hero scales Paris building to save child

Mamoudou Gassama Mali spiderman to be made French Citizen after rescuing a child from falling

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I guess with FX you just need to identify those extremes in sentiment

You could quite clearly see that the sentiment in the USD was quite overdone while it was able to consolidate and start recovering

The negative sentiment in the EUR I suspect is only just developing. Italy developments not helping.

As for gold, you don't want to step in front of any large move either way. The fractal is too big now.

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Analysts Ask: Is Gold Ready To Rally With Bullish Bets Close To 2.5 Year Low ...

 Kitco NewsMay 28

Hedge funds continued to shed their bullish gold bets, but some analysts said that there are signs that the selling momentum is starting to fade.

The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows net bullish speculative positioning in the gold market at its lowest level since late-January 2016.

gold_silver_bars_closeup.jpgThe CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 22, showed money managers reduced their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 11,845 contracts to 91,411. At the same time, short bets fell by 9,378 contracts to 74,880. Gold’s net length now stands at 16,531.

Gold’s net length dropped 12% from the previous week as the selling pressure pushed prices to a new five-month low during the week-long survey period. However, the fact that gold was able to hold critical long-term support above $1,280 an ounce is a sign that the market is oversold, according to some analysts.

Net long or short positioning in the CFTC data reflects the difference between the total number of bullish (long) and bearish (short) contracts. Traders monitor the data to gauge the general mood of speculators, although excessively high or low numbers are viewed by many as signs of overbought or oversold markets that may be ripe for price corrections.

Olen Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank said that the gold market is, “building up for a new upside attempt once the fundamental and/or technical outlook improves.”

Commodity analysts at TD Securities said that continued strength in the U.S. dollar continues to weigh on gold; however, they also see the potential for a recovery in gold in the near-term.

“Between the FOMC minutes striking a dovish tone, and Trump canceling the meeting with North Korea's Kim, the precious metals environment should appear more attractive moving forward,” they said.

While gold is struggling to attract investor interest, the silver market appears to be turning a corner as new bullish bets and short-covering supported prices last week, according to the trade data.

The disaggregated report showed money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures rose by 7,347 contracts to 56,388. At the same time, short positions fell by 8,676 contracts to 56,978. Silver's net short positioning currently stands at 590 contracts.

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Harry Dent Predict (May/2018) Indicator Signals Upcoming Stock Market Crash in June /2018

/ 2 /

Martin A. speaks about some of the problems Euro is facing with Greece & Italy

"The drop in bonds has already started" (with European bonds?)

Martin Armstrong – Rates are Going to Jump to 10% Instantaneously

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFRuRoqLKZU

Where does renowned financial and geopolitical analyst Martin Armstrong see big trouble brewing?

Look no further than the bond market. Armstrong explains, “The bond market is going down. . . . We’ve already started into it. . . .You have to understand both Japan and Europe have destroyed their bond markets. They have completely and utterly destroyed them. They are the buyers. That’s it. There is no pension fund that can buy 10-year paper at 1.3% when they need 8% to break even. They are locking in a 10 year loss. They can’t do it. We have been helping major funds shift into equities because it is the only place they can go. . . . Once you start seeing the cracks in Europe, you are going to see interest rates rise faster than you have ever contemplated in your life. There is nobody in their right mind that can buy an Italian bond at 1.3%. It’s just not going to happen. Once the ECB is forced to stop, those rates are going to jump to 10% instantaneously. Once it starts to crack, that’s it, it’s gone. What is going to make everyone know it is cracking is when you see rates going up dramatically, and the ECB is at a point it just can’t buy any more.” Armstrong does not see a big War in the near term, but one is brewing in the Middle East. What Armstrong does see right now is “increasing civil unrest.” On gold, Armstrong sees the yellow metal “fighting a stronger dollar” but predicts it will have its day sometime after 2020 to 2021.

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Differing E-Wave counts...

quickrick38 says:

fiona, you really got me thinking this weekend. The fundamental question about the S&P is whether or not 2880 was a III or a v ??? Fact is that what we are calling a wave III was a very strong bull market with very little in terms of pullbacks that we typically depend on to count the waves. Ergo, it could be a wave iii or, it might have been III, iv, and v. There’s no way anyone can know for sure.

The reason I put it that way is because I was looking at the triangle that I posted earlier and asked myself the question; if the market drops below the floor of the triangle…how would it count. The answer is quite ‘eye opening’.

The ‘A’ and ‘B’ remain the same…noting that most corrections are ABC in nature wherein the ‘C’ wave drops well below the bottom of the ‘A’ wave. In other words, it could look like this;

rVF78v.jpg

In other words, if 2880 was a wave v we would expect to get a bigger correction. That would be entirely consistent with your forecast. Thanks for your insight.

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SPY -etc... update

xmgbHn4.gif

12/31: $266.86 ==== : ======/ 11.04%/ Jan2019: b-o : $285P / $285-C: Straddle (%SPY) d>1.18 /Sqrt= aVix : %VIX
02/02: $275.45 - 6.13:  - 2.18%/ 17.31%/ $19.43-19.85: $19.64 / $11.25: $30.89 (11.21%) 351d: /.981= 11.43 : 66.0%
02/05: $263.93 - 11.5:  - 4.18%/ 37.32%/ $29.00-34.00: $31.50 / $08.00: $39.50 (14.97%) 348d: /.976= 15.34 : 41.1%
02/15: $273.03 +3.44: +1.28%/ 19.13%/ $20.77-21.07: $20.92 / $10.53: $31.45 (11.52%) 338d: / .962= 11.98 : 62.6%
03/07: $272.78 - 0.10:  - 0.04%/ 17.76%/ $18.50-23.50: $21.00 / $09.42: $30.42 (11.15%) 318d: / .933= 11.95 : 67.3%
03/29:  $271.65 - 2.78: - 1.01%/ 19.97%/ $00.00-00.00: $26.70 / $06.30: $33.00 (12.15%) 296d: / .901= 13.49 : 67.6%
04/18:  $270.39 +0.20: +0.07%/ 15.61%/ $19.84-20.04: $19.94 / $06.60: $26.54 (09.82%) 276d: / .870= 11.28 : 72.3%
05/23 : $273.36 +0.75: +0.27%/ 12.99%/ $16.82-17.04: $16.94 / $05.58: $22.52 (08.24%) 241d: / .813= 10.14 : 78.0%
05/29 : $269.02 - 3.13: - 1.19%/ 17.02%/ $19.77-20.08: $19.93 / $04.49: $24.42 (09.08%) 235d: / .802= 11.32 : 66.5%
======

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DXY : Update - 5/30 : 94.07

cgUcrjR.gif

==

The US Rally may be ending, despite articles like this

King Dollar’s safe-haven surge has only just begun

via Khaleej Times:

The US Dollar Index’s 4.5 per cent rise since mid-April has myriad causes. One, the Italian election annihilated the political center and produced the worst possible coalition scenario of the far left (Five Star) and the far right (Northern League), two populist, anti-euro parties that won 54 per cent of the vote. Italy has a de facto bankrupt banking system, a 130 per cent public debt/GDP ratio, vast regional inequalities (Milan and Calabria are different planets, as are Lombardia and Veneto from Sardinia) a toxic Mafia presence and a fiscal nightmare. Now its politicians want to renege on the fiscal/pension reforms imposed by Berlin and Brussels in 2011. This is the nightmare scenario for the euro and the euro is 57 per cent of the US Dollar Index.

Two, the Italian-German Bund debt spread has surged, as has Italy’s risk of sovereign default. The euro’s fall to its SNB’s floor against the Swiss franc at 1.20 is an ominous message of systemic risk. There is no way the ECB can begin quantitative tightening in September. A premature end to Dr Draghi’s asset purchase programme could literally trigger a Greek-style sovereign debt crisis – only on a far bigger scale. Italy has the third-largest bond market in the world. If Italy goes bad, Planet Forex will script the requiem for the euro and the dream born in the Treaty of Rome. The safe-haven bid in the US dollar has only just begun.

Three, the US-China deal averts an immediate trade war, though it is mathematically impossible for the US trade deficit to fall $200 billion on higher Chinese imports of US energy and agribusiness products. Chinese exports to the US will have to fall, a real risk to growth in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia. Net-net, this means lower Asian currencies against the US dollar.

> http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/king-dollars-safe-haven-surge-has-only-just-begun/

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Yields Are Creeping Up The Soft Underbelly Of Europe's Axis Of Debt

Summary

Yields on Italian debt are testing 3-year resistance, and if they break through, there is no significant upper resistance until the 4% range.

A standoff between Italy's President and government coalition on the confirmation of eurosceptic Dr. Paolo Savona as Finance Minister has come to a head.

If Savona is not confirmed within 24 hours, say the coalition parties, new elections are likely, and Italian stocks will be rattled and interest rates will rise.

If Savona is confirmed, interest rates will rise anyway because a confrontation with Brussels and Germany would be likely.

The ECB cannot grant debt forgiveness to Italy because then it would have to do so to all countries for which it bought bonds, so it looks like there's no way out this time.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4177623-yields-creeping-soft-underbelly-europes-axis-debt

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As Its Stock Crashes To All Time Low, A Shocked Deutsche Bank Issues A Statement

Back in September 2016, when its stock was imploding over capitalization and solvency concerns, the market was transfixed with the daily drop in Deutsche Bank stock price, which tumbled, eventually sliding below €10, and only implicit promises that Germany would bail it out, prompted a slow, if painful reversal. And yet, at no point in that period did the stock close at a level below where it closed today: a new all time low, crashing 7.2% to €9.16 following reports that the bank was on the Fed's "Secret" probation list.

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