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DrBubb's Diary - March 2018 Trading - v.110

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Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 110th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

GjtfFlk.jpg

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

TIME is running out for Hillary & her coverup team @ the FBI- Month #2

"MUELLER NEEDS TO QUIT!" - says 'Thomas Paine' at American Intelligence Media

If Mueller read the memo Today, he should quit tomorrow (if he did not know what was in the memo.)
If he already knew what was in the memo, why was he not investigating the parties in it?
"If we got the Fusion GPS records, we would see that they paid Press people"
"Hillary tried to spring the Russian connection... She knew about it because seh was paying for it."
"Hillary's biggest weakness was the UraniumOne connection, she tried to hide it, by manufacturing this"

================

DrBubb's Diary - March 2018 Trading - v.110

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

VyJr9tC.gif

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term: tny_au_en_euoz_2.gif

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR

YZFCUM4.png

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

fS3ADxm.png

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Big Three" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc

z3vB3se.gif

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :
end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :
end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :
end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :
end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :
end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :
end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :
end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :
end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :
end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :
======
"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

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DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
03-31: 206.43 - 1.82: 127.M: 15.29 : 18.24 - 0.23: 113.66 - 0.09: 4.38M: 1,185.5 $47.49* 98.406 +0.432: 130.69 +0.28: 00: 000/ 000: 2800
06-30: 205.85 +0.43: 155.M: 18.23 : 17.76 - 0.14: 112.31 - 0.70: 7.54M: 1,172.1 $59.09* 95.516 +0.541: 117.46 -0.82 : 11, 118/ 086, 1887
09-30: 192.13 +0.50: 142.M: 24.50 : 13.74 +0.33: 106.86 - 1.12: 7.19M: 1,114.5 $45.34* 96.282 +0.384 : 123.54 - 0.43: 04: 133/ 104, 2853
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
01-29: 193.72 + 4.61: 182.M: 20.20 : 14.21 +0.35: 106.95 +0.41: 7.92M: 1118.4 $33.74* $99.53 +0.95 : 127.30 +1.07 : 02, 072/ 1600, 5,341
02-29: 193.56 - 1.53: 109.M: 20.55 : 19.38 +0.69: 118.64 +1.53: 11.5M: 1239.3 $33.90* $98.15 - 0.03 : 130.98 +0.57 : 02, 076/ 1250, 3,324
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
04-29: 206.33 - 1.11: 124.M: 15.70 : 25.83 +1.55: 123.65 +2.36: 18.2M: 1294.9 $45.90* $93.02 - 0.45 : 129.38 +0.33 : 0?, 060/ 400, 3,160
05-31: 209.84 - 0.40: 88.7M: 14.19 : 22.58 +0.30: 116.06 +0.44: 8.06M: 1217.5 $48.83* $95.86 +0.16 : 130.16 +0.31 : 0?, 088/ 070, 2,652
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
07-29: 217.12 + 0.35: 70.1M: 11.87 : 30.59 +0.84: 128.98 +1.32: 12.9M: 1357.9 $41.60* $95.52 - 1.04 : 141.56 +1.17/ 0?, 064 : 080, 2,785
08-31: 217.38 - 0.62: 71.9M: 13.42 : 25.42  - 0.42: 124.78 - 0.25: 13.2M: 1311.4 $44.70* $95.98 - 0.05 : 139.87  +0.20/ 03, 067 : 237, 5,229
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
10-31: 212.55 +0.01: 55.9M: 17.06 : 24.52 +0.71: 121.94 + 0.36: 7.09M: 1273.1 $46.86* $98.44 +0.10 : 131.25  +0.80/ 10, 094 : 1128, 5,808
11-30: 220.38 - 0.53: 92.0M: 13.33 : 20.83 - 0.40: 111.75  - 1.52: 10.9M: 1173.9 $49.44* 101.54 +0.59 : 120.24  - 1.98/ 02, 107 : 629, 5,879
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
27: 267.33 +0.00 00.0M: 10.47 : 23.16 +0.00 : 122.23 +0.00 0.00M: 0000.0 $00.00 : $92.67 -0.00 : 126.77 +0.00/
28: 267.87 +0.55 38.6M: 10.18 : 23.20 +0.04 : 122.85 +0.62 5.67M: 1287.2 $59.84 : $92.50 -0.17 : 126.66 -0.11/ 00, 102 : 000, 1436
29: 266.86 -1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 -0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

JAN
30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
01: 267.70 - 3.95 160.M: 22.47 : 21.57 +0.22 : 124.72 - 0.28 12.8M: 1306.2 $60.99 : $90.23 - 0.50 : 119.32 +0.57/
02: 269.08 +1.38 118.M: 19.59 : 21.49 - 0.08 : 125.39 +0.67 9.75M: 1323.4 $61.25 : $89.98 - 0.25 : 118.35 - 0.97/ 00, 009 : 035, 035
05: 272.19 +3.11 86.1M: 18.73 : 21.65 +0.16 : 125.18 -0.21 5.55M: 1319.9 $62.57 : $90.00 +0.02 : 118.03 -0.32/ 00, 019 : 000, 112 :
06: 272.88 +0.69 68.0M: 18.36 : 22.01 +0.36 : 126.53 +1.35 8.56M: 1335.4 $62.60 : $89.43 -0.57 : 118.14 +0.11/ 06, 025 : 048, 160 :
07: 272.78 - 0.10
08: 274.10 +0.00 00.0M: 16.54 : 21.65 -0.00 : 125.42 +0.00 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $90.11 -0.00 : 118.69 -0.00/
09: 278.87 +4.77 97.3M: 14.64 : 21.57 -0.08 : 125.54 +0.12 5.01M: 1324.0 $62.04 : $90.10 -0.01 : 117.91 -0.78/
12: 278.52 -0.35 62.6M: 15.66 : 21.76 +0.19 : 125.54 +0.00 2.84M: 1320.8 $61.36 : $89.87 -0.23 : 118.58 +0.68/ 00, 032 : 000, 0320:
13: 276.72 -0.00 92.0M: 16.35 : 21.67
14: 275.30 -0.00 00.0M: 17.33 : 21.73 -0.00 : 125.70 -0.00 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $90.13 +0.00 : 120.24 -0.00/
15: 275.00 -1.40 68.5M: 16.59 : 21.45 -0.28 : 124.90 -0.80 5.93M: 1318.8 $61.19 : $90.14 +0.01 : 120.24 UNCH/
16: 274.20 +0.30 80.5M: 15.80 : 21.43 -0.02 : 124.60 -0.30 5.72M: 1312.3 $62.41 : $90.19 +0.05 : 119.81 -0.43/XXX
16: 274.20 +0.30 80.5M: 15.80 : 21.43 -0.02 : 124.60 -0.30 5.72M: 1312.3 $62.41 : $90.19 +0.05 : 119.81 -0.43 :
19: 270.49 -3.71 00.0M: 19.02 : 21.51 +0.08 : 124.87 -0.00 0.00M: 1317.8 $62.07 : $89.92 -0.27 : 119.43 -0.38 :
20: 270.95 +0.46 53.3M: 18.20 : 21.27 -0.24 : 124.31 -0.56 3.37M: 1311.9 $63.54 : $90.41 +0.49 : 118.95 -0.48 :
21: 270.43 -0.52 72.6M: 17.86 : 21.86 +0.59 : 126.48 +2.17 12.4M: 1321.0 $65.17 : $89.53 -0.88 : 119.08 +0.13/00, 049: 000, 0508
22: 263.67 -6.76 130.M: 23.34 : 21.50 -0.36 : 125.98 -0.50 5.19M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $89.63 -0.18 : 120.26 +1.18 :
23: 258.05 -5.62 156.M: 24.87 : 22.12 +0.62 : 127.61 +1.63 11.6M: 1349.9 $65.88 : $89.48 -0.15 : 120.17 -0.09 :
26: 265.11 +7.06 122.M: 21.03 : 22.44 +0.32 : 128.28 +0.67 6.13M: 1355.0 $65.55 : $89.05 -0.43 : 119.71 -0.46/
27: 260.60 - 4.51 118.M: 22.50 : 21.99 - 0.45 : 127.49 - 0.79 6.15M: 1342.0 $65.25 : $89.29 +0.24 : 120.99 +1.28/
28: 260.28 - 0.40 000.M: 22.87 : 21.99 - 0.00 : 125.73 - 1.76 0.00M: 1330.0 $64.38 : $90.14 +0.85 : 121.31 +0.32/
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
02: 257.47 -5.68 000.M: 23.62 : 22.23 +0.25 : 127.26 +1.47 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $90.18 +0.17 : 121.88 -0.02/
03: 260.77 +3.30 118.M: 21.10 : 21.91 -0.32 : 126.30 -0.96 5.99M: 1337.3 $63.51 : $90.07 -0.11 : 120.94 -0.94/
04: 263.56 +2.79 112.M: 20.06 : 21.87 -0.04 : 126.45 +0.15 7.08M: 1340.2 $63.37 : $90.16 +0.09 : 120.69 -0.25/
05: 265.64 +2.08 76.2M: 18.94 : 21.97 +0.10 : 125.80 -0.65 5.28M: 1328.5 $63.54 : $90.53 +0.08 : 119.79 -0.90/
06: 259.72 -5.92 151.M: 21.49 : 22.07 +0.10 : 126.39 +0.59 6.05M: 1336.1 $62.06 : $90.07 -0.46 : 121.10 +1.31/

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Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: June 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
HUI  ------ : 000.00 : 192.31 :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

... All : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

1Y7GBX2.gif

EIGHT KEY CHARTS
=================

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All / Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over soon

vTCYnw6.gif

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

l53JqYM.gif

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but looking very tired

KkMUCOw.gif

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

28in9Y4.gif

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

ALL / Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is DOWN, reversing?

uPTblbm.gif

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

vUh8nu6.gif

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

95mS7Vo.gif

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All : Cal'13 : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

08NICzu.gif

.

HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data-update :

d2pmnkR.gif

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

OAe96ng.gif

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : ??

PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

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Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update

OiR7uum.gif

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

j8rTwGB.gif

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90
Gold-toUSD_zp.png

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:Gold-toUSD.png

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d : this chart begins to show a divergence

LBpSEGJ.gif

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 2/01/2018

PretIMm.gif

==

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BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

pYLsFGz.gif

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :
SP_500_Bradley_Siderograph.png
===
Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

21fkdLL.gif

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

xzuWrag.gif

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

pYLsFGz.gif

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :
SP_500_Bradley_Siderograph.png
===
Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

21fkdLL.gif

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

xzuWrag.gif

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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Bitcoin fell back on its first attempt at $20,000 (so far)

"But the 2-3 months cycle may be bottoming around year-end.

Clif High thinks the price will be at $13,000 in Feb. & will reach $64k - 100k during 2018, in next wave."

(In edit - at 3/3/2018):

Bitstamp -12month chart ... update

ulK4MhZ.png

BTS .. 12 mo w/ Cycles - bottomed nr. End-Jan.? OLD cycle / 8yr: 12mo : b5  BTC 10 5d

Dnf6W32.png

BTS - all data : 1yrL: 12mo: 5mo: 2mo:

BzRZJ7k.png

All-data

JPpFwYv.png

=====

12/31: 0.5481 x13100+0000=7180:+070:13150Mar(3950):7208/(3950:54.8%)

JAN

01/31: 0.5955 x10240-(000)=6098/0079:10319Mar(1100):6145/(0500:08.1%):+0397:10637 +600
FEB
02/01: 0.5980 x$9400-(000)=5621/0000:$9500Mar(1000):5681/
02/02: 0.6040 x$8000-(000)=4832/0000:$8000Mar(1000):4832/(0400:08.3%):+0300:$8300 +600

02/27: 0.6177 x10738-( -50)=6633:+006:10742Mar(-800):6635/(-700:10.6%):+0150:10853 +115,-0.00: 11.4
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50)=6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/(-750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/01: 0.6159 x10600-(- 50)=6529: -025:10560Mar(-700):6504/(-600:9.22%):+0150:10670 +055,-.003: 11.6
03/02: 0.6102 x11117-(-50)=6784:+023:11140Mar(-850):6798/(-750:11.0%):+0150:11235 +118,-.006: 11.6
03/03: 0.6041 x11459-(-50)=6922:+102:11561Mar(-850):6984/(-800:11.5%):+0100:11695 +245,-.010: 11.9
03/04: 0.6065 x11147-(100)=6761:+007:11154Mar(-850):6765/(-950:14.0%):+0000:11321 +174,-.010: 11.8
03/05: 0.6035 x11510-(200)=6946:+080:11590Mar -1150:6995/-1500:21.4%:--0150:11777 +267,-.010: 12.0
03/06: 0.6087 x11230-(200)=6836:+080:11275Mar -1600:6863/-2350:34.2%: --550:11462 +267, -.011: 11.9
03/06: 0.6155 x10880-(200)=6696:+045:10925Mar -1600:6724/-2350:34.2%: --550:11085 +205, -.011: 11.7
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x 12750= $3337; x10925= $2458: 4266: H:4588 / 0322/0.405=$795: $11,720

: 12,012 : to New High !

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KITCO

Investor Interest Is Simply Not There For Gold - Mining Legend Pierre ...

Have We Reached Peak Silver? - Hecla CEO Weighs In

Gold Stages An Impressive Recovery, Will It Last?

=====

Keith Neumeyer, CEO of First Majestic Silver, is sticking to his call that silver eventually will reach TRIPLE digit prices. “Silver is extremely important, people look at it as the poor man’s gold, which is the absolutely the wrong way to look at silver,” Neumeyer said on the sidelines of the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference. “Silver is an extremely critical metal, it’s a strategic metal, and the investment community will figure it out eventually.”Neumeyer ... (read more)

While a much higher gold price is needed to bring bullish sentiment back into the mining space, the yellow metal is already fairly priced, said Pierre Lassonde, Chairman of Franco-Nevada Corp.“At $,1300 [an ounce], I will argue that gold is well priced,” Lassonde told Kitco News on the sidelines of the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference. “It’s not overpriced and it’s not underpriced. It’s where it should be given everything else that’s happening in the ... (read more)

"The operators are doing well, they have learned their lesson, they are focusing on margins, but if you look at the investor, they don't want to hear about [gold]," he said on the sidelines of the BMO Metals and Mining Conference in Florida this week.

"If you look at gold price sitting around $1,300 an ounce -for seven years the gold price has been up and down $100 dollars, it's not going anywhere and at the same time you have had the cryptocurrencies coming and attracting attention," Lassonde explained.

Lassonde says, " I LOVE Copper"

A lack of silver exploration in the last 30 years has caused silver production to reach a peak, said Phil Baker, CEO of Hecla Mining. “I would characterize it as having reached a peak level of silver production,” Baker told Kitco News on the sidelines of the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference. “There hasn’t been an exploration, certainly in the lead and zinc area, and so there is a continued coming deficit.”Baker noted that silver has demand from new ... (read more)

In trading today, gold futures (April 2018 Comex contract) sank to $1,303.60 before staging an impressive recovery. As of 3:40 PM Eastern standard time, gold is currently trading up $3.60 on the day at $1,321.40

Spot gold traded to a low today of $1,302.97. It is presently up approximately $2.50 and fixed at $1,320.30. Although sellers continue to dominate trading activity today, it is dollar weakness that has pulled gold by the bootstraps resulting in today’s price recovery. According to the Kitco Gold Index, selling pressure has resulted in a decline of $3.20. However, a weakening U.S. dollar added $5.70 in value today.

GLD_31_BAR.png

On a technical basis, Tuesday's strong selloff resulted in significant chart damage. This is based on two primary studies: current support trendline and the 50-day moving average.

The support trendline was created from the low of $1,235 which occurred in mid-December of last year, and the low of $1,308 which occurred on February 8. Tuesday’s sharp decline traded and closed significantly below this trendline. On Tuesday gold closed just above $1317 and below the 50-day moving average for the first time in 2018.

Yesterday gold traded in a compressed and narrow range that closed a few ticks below Tuesday’s close, still below the 50-day moving average.

On a fundamental basis it was President Trump’s proposal to implement tariffs on steel and aluminum that created the recovery. These actions have a high probability of leading the US into a trade war, which would result in sizable upside spike in inflation, which would be extremely bullish for gold.

Platinum and Palladium Trade Within $15 of Each Other

Platinum futures lost almost 2% on the day and are currently fixed at $969.60. At the same time, palladium futures lost over 5% in value as they dropped over $53 in trading today, with palladium futures currently at $983.90. These precious metals are obviously reacting to their industrial component as President Trump proposes tariffs on steel and aluminum that could dramatically impact automobile sales in the United States. As such, these two precious white metals traded significantly lower and as of this writing have not recovered.

For those who would like a deeper analysis, simply use this link.

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Junior Gold stocks, headed to pinchpoint. Big move coming. Up move looks most likely

GDXJ ... update : GDX :

w2Lpea3.gif

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The Peterson transformation - why JBP matters

This documentary is well-done & thought provoking

Documentary: A Glitch in the Matrix (David Fuller production)

 

Published on Feb 17, 2018

 

A Glitch in the Matrix: Dr JB Peterson, the Intellectual Dark Web & the Mainstream Media: Documentary by Journalist David Fuller.

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USD Still in big downtrend - against two ASEAN Currencies

THB / Thai Bhat and MYR / Malaysian Ringgit ... update : usdMYR : usdTHB : usdPHP :

THB: 31.44 / MYR: 3.93 (x8): 4.50: 36.00, 4.25: 34.00, 3.95: 31.60 / PHP: 51.94 / IDR: 13,758

W3NYlof.gif

: usdMYR :

PlC71RY.gif

 

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DSVK3yYUMAEcrGL.jpg

Jeff & Catherine Austin Fitts - Fortress America? Are We Bringing America Home?

Mar 2

Money & Markets tonight on the Solari Report OPEN TO THE PUBLIC: Censorship in 1000 forms, Stock Market Correction - over? Putin's Presidential Address, Xi Jinping's term vs POTUS, Pence space initiative Trump mulls student loan bankruptcy possibility

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The Fed Is About to Pop the Bubble in Stocks

By Bill Bonner, chairman, Bonner & Partners

Wolves of Wall Street

For their part, investors don’t question it.

They still believe the Fed has their backs, as it has for more than a generation. The buy-the-dip mentality still seems to be a great way to make money.

Until it isn’t… of course.

Which is what happens when the Fed changes course… or runs out of claptrap.

Yes, that is where the other hand is. That is the big change.

The brains at the Fed now believe they have done such a super job of shepherding the economy into high clover that they can now take a break without worrying about the wolves of Wall Street.

They’ve announced to the world that they are going to take a break… go down to the bar… and have a drink.

Instead of supporting stocks and bonds with quantitative easing (injecting cash into the system) and ultra-low interest rates, the Fed has begun quantitative tightening (sucking cash out of the system) and raising rates.

Somehow, it knew the world would be a better place with lower rates and QE in full swing. Somehow, it knows it will now be a better place with higher rates and QE in reverse.

Foolish Fed

What are investors thinking?

That the Fed doesn’t mean it? That it won’t follow through? Or that higher rates won’t affect their stock portfolios?

We don’t think the Fed will follow through, either. But it won’t get back on the job – inflating the markets and the economy – until the wolves have dragged away a few of the flock and the rest are running for cover.

That’s the way it works. The Fed is not just fallible; it is also foolish.

First, it makes mistakes. Second, it tries to correct its mistakes with more mistakes. And third, when it sees what a mess it has created, it reverts to the first mistake: It cuts rates… and holds them down too low for too long.

Then it raises them… and the economy goes into recession. It cuts again. Raises again. And then, it must cut again.

Or try to.

The 10-year Treasury note yielded nearly 10% on Black Monday in 1987. It yielded over 6% when the dot-com bubble blew up in 2000. And it yielded just under 5% when the subprime mortgage crisis hit in 2007.

But today, the 10-year note yields 2.9%, which doesn’t leave the Fed much to work with.

So Chief Powell is making the second mistake now. He is eager to get yields higher before the next crisis hits. Then, he’ll have something to make the first mistake with.

But raising borrowing costs is bound to set off the next recession/crash.

Disaster could strike any day… as soon as investors realize that Mr. Powell is sneaking up on the bubble with a pin in his hands.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
Chairman, Bonner & Partners

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BEARISH - not only because they are down 10% - but because they still have 90% to Sell

China Holdings of U.S. Debt Down 10%...

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Sterling Steel? = Big Steel versus the Silver price

STEEL is no longer a Steal - Time to sell? Or will Inflation take off?

REPORT: Icahn dumps $31 million in steel-related stocks before White House tariff talks...

X / US Steel = "Big Steel" ... update

HNWXmML.gif

On the other hand...

If it breaks through the Resistance, and trades over $48, there could be substantial upside.

Should the stock be part of the "Inflation Watch"? Probably.

If X-Steel and DBA-Grains rise, will it unleash the "coiled spring" in Silver prices?

SLV-Silver vs. X and DBA ... update

NkFb4PY.gif

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KITCO

"Tepid"? / BMO Maintains $1,280 Price Target For Gold; Interest Diverted ...

Hang On, Gold Interest is About To Renew - Sandstorm CEO

Kitco News Gold Survey: Prices Seen Rising Rise On Trade-War Fears

PDAC 2018 Descends On Toronto This Weekend; Here Is What To Expect

=====

.This interest in industrial metals comes as President Trump has recently issued an import tariff on steel and aluminum. A risk-on appetite, fueled by rebounding global growth, does not provide incentives for the average retail investor to own gold as a safe haven asset, said Kaip“[Gold] is viewed as a safe haven, but when you have global growth in the manner that we are seeing right now, and you have a very healthy economy in the United States, full employment, Europe is rebounding, you really have to think that some of the reasons for owning gold just aren’t there with the average person,” Kaip told Kitco News on the sidelines of the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference. “We are seeing some early signs of interest in the precious metals space, but it’s very tepid right now,” Kaip said. (show less)

. . . .“About a month ago, when the stock market went crazy and the VIX blew up…and it sort of hinted that the global economic system, with record debt levels, is starting to show signs of not cracks but stress,” Watson told Kitco News on the sidelines of the BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference. “And when you have that much money moving around, things start to get a bit shaky, and that’s when people are going to look to gold.”On bitcoin, Watson noted that the cryptocurrency has only hurt gold on the retail investor side, since large institutional investors have yet to allocate large quantities into blockchain funds. “

. . .

Ken Morrison, editor of the newsletter Morrison on the Markets, is among the majority looking for gold to benefit from nervousness about an escalating trade war.

“The prospects of a trade war with most of the U.S. strongest trade partners and allies have suddenly changed the sentiment toward the dollar and thus gold,” Morrison said. “Thursday's big decline was accompanied by a shakeout of open interest, down 15,000 contracts on the day on above-average futures volume, signaling capitulation. Gold will likely have support until more details are known on the proposed tariffs, with a return to $1,335 possible. Will Canada and Mexico be exempted as they were in 2002? They account for 25% of all U.S. steel imports and [are] obviously important trade partners.”

Adam Button, currency analyst at Forexlive.com, looks for gold to be higher for similar reasons.

“The market is confused by Trump’s newly announced tariffs and the risk of more,” Button said. “Gold will be an increasingly attractive safe haven.”

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group, commented that tariffs also could support gold due to the potential for inflation. Higher tariffs would raise the cost of a wide range of items, such as cars (metals for manufacturing) to soda (aluminum used for cans), he said.
“I am bullish on gold for next week,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “On Thursday, the bottom of a $1,300 to $1,360 channel held with a bullish hammer candle, indicating a trading bounce may be starting.

Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, described himself as neutral but looking for volatility. He commented that the gains that occurred in gold after news of Trump’s tariffs were likely due to short-term speculative buying, and he doubts many big long-term bets have come into the market just yet.

. . .

This year’s Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention, known as the mammoth of all mining conferences, is promising to be busier than ever, with more than 24,000 attendees coming from 130 different countries to exchange ideas and network.

The event will take place from March 4 to March 7 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre, which will mark the 86th year for the convention.

“The PDAC convention is our largest industry event and provides mineral and mining professionals, as well as investors, analysts, geologists, executives, government officials and students, access to an array of programming, short courses, presentations and networking opportunities,” said PDAC President Glenn Mullan.

The conference will keep attendees on a tight schedule, with more than 400 presenters discussing the latest trends in mining.

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Latest week's data is added. A mostly quiet week

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   02/09 :  02/16 :  02/23 :  03/02 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1315.7 : 1356.2 : 1330.3 : 1323.4 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.39 : 124.77 : 127.96 : 126.14 : 125.39 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 275.45 : 261.50 : 273.11 : 274.71 : 269.08 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2762.1 : 2619.6 : 2732.2 : 2747.3 : 2691.3 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 206.5%: 199.1%: 201.5 %: 206.5% : 203.4% :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  17.285 : 16.710 : 16.140 : 16.710 : 16.480 : 16.470 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $15.66 : $15.39 : $15.73 : $15.59 : $15.56 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $72.46 : $66.67: $68.12 : $68.80 : $66.95 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $65.45 : $59.20 : $61.55 : $63.55 : $61.25 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r-20.43 : r-22.22 : r22.03 : r20.93 : r21.61 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $2.850 : $3.030 : $2.560 : $2.660 : $2.690 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.190 : $2.580 : $3.250 : $3.210 : $3.120 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 197.44 : 188.51 : 193.58 : 195.99 : 194.12 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 361.50 : 362.00 : 367.50 : 374.50 : 385.25 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 446.75 : 449.00 : 457.75 : 464.25 : 500.00 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.97 : $18.82: $18.97 : $19.10: $19.39 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73%  :  9.61%  :  9.98% :  9.80% :  9.74%  :  9.90% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.981 : r-3.820 : r-3.543 : r-3.591 : r-3.600 : r3.453 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $89.19 : $90.33 : $89.01 : $89.81 : $89.91 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1315.7 : 1356.2 : 1330.3 : 1323.4 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.589 : r-1.603 : r1.603 : r-1.604 : r-1.587 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 841.35 : 820.71 : 846.E. : 829.26 : 833.98 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $22.91 : $21.68 : $22.51 : $21.97 : $21.49 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.13 : $19.02 : $19.69 : $19.55 : $19.32 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $32.29 : $30.63 : $32.51 : $31.91 : $31.73 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $30.70 : $28.71 : $29.74 : $29.27 : $28.95 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.05 : $46.42 : $49.54 : $49.72 : $48.13 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3462.1 : 3155.0 : 3199.1 : 3289.0 : 3254.5 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8810.8 : 8503.7 : 8612.4 : 8478.6 : 8458.6 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.36 : $27.68 : $28.98 : $29.12 : $28.44 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 153.83 : 146.77 : 153.34 : 153.98 : 152.35 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : ====== : 0.1836 : 0.1909 : 0.1886 : 0.1890 : 0.1891 : 0.1867 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : $8,800 : $8,840 : 10,100 : 10,200 : 11,117 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   02/09 :  02/16 :  02/23 :  03/02 :

This ratio is interesting - Silver -to-CRB (Commodity Research Bureau's commodity index)

fdLlGFg.png

The Ratio has traced out a textbook A-B-C correction which may be done, or nearly done.

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A BLAST in the PAST

- here's a "guru" I haven't listened to for a long time

John Michael Greer - The Retro Future: Looking to the Past to Reinvent the Future

 

/ 2 /  This one might be better for many : some sane talk about the world today & politcs

John Michael Greer Podcast 01/09/18

JMG needs a better mic

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I did sell a bit, but BTC hasn't hit my Fully target yet - with some minor selling the Hedge is now a touch higher at 14.0%

Looks like there might be some important resistance of the Gold Line (see below), and I may need to lower some Sell Targets.

BTS .. 1-month : 10-d :

ztmcC05.png

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The stock market looks poised to Slide Lower...

- But that not mean it will happen

I follow these Two Bear instruments to see it a breakout is happening - that might be associated with a bear market
 

FAZ & TZA ... update

94coedq.gif

 

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TLT: A Dangerous "Opportunity"?  Or maybe just a Big fat risk?

There are still ‘very few bargains’ for investors — except for this

MW-GD908_bargai_20180216065725_ZH.jpg?uuGetty Images
Do you see good deals in this market?

So it’s looking rather hunky-dory again for the stock market, as a three-day weekend nears.

The worried-about-inflation story has “largely been priced in, and now the market is responding more constructively to these strong economic headlines,” says CrackedMarket’s Jani Ziedens.

Except a whole host of strategists aren’t convinced by the sharp rally that has come right after last week’s big selloff.

“Last week was just the preview to the bigger event that we’ll see this year probably,” growls one veteran short-seller, while another doubter warns that buying the dip isn’t always the right move.

Count the True Contrarian’s Steven Jon Kaplan among the skeptics, even after the Dow just scored its biggest five-day percentage gain in six years. He provides our call of the day.

“Most investors are convinced that we had our correction for 2018, and that the bull market continues in earnest,” he writes to his subscribers. But Kaplan suggests they’ve got it wrong.Other than buying TLT near and below $118, I see hardly any worthwhile buying opportunities,” he says, referring to the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT, -0.27%  .

TLT / LT T-Bond etf .... update

UuCNjoJ.gif

“Except for U.S. Treasurys, I see very few bargains in any asset class. Just about everything is close to all-time record overvaluations, and we have barely begun what will likely become a historic global risk-asset collapse.”

The newsletter writer laments that some of his subscribers “have been especially eager to do more buying,” and that many brokerages are sending out stay-the-course messages to clients. His newsletter aims to highlight the unanimous views in markets, along with how traders can go in the exact opposite direction.

Kaplan has sounded mostly bearish on stocks for months, though he hasn’t been sitting on the sidelines, saying he’s shorted some FANG stocks and taken a well-timed nibble of a Mexico ETF.

Read more: Here’s the ‘real’ reason stock-market investors are worried about bond yields

=====

I do note that Charles Neener foresees an Upcycle in TBonds starting any time now

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Brilliant!

It's Time: Listen to the Children - Owen Benjamin (and the unbearables)

Lefties who rely on their FEELZ know how dangerous it is to rely on logic and reason

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Very interested material about what is (or might be) Happening behind the Scenes.

Trump's counter-coup is now underway, and certain recently-passed Executive Orders are critical to it.

Arrests may come soon, and criminals be be tried at Military Tribunals

/ they use the Kitty images to try to shield themselves from Youtube algorithms /

Kitty Shows Her Claws

 

Talks about... Trump's surprizing (& little recognized victories)

 

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NOTES: MINING Bitcoins - is it really profitable?
=====

I attended an interesting Meet-up in HK yesterday:

Securing the Bitcoin Blockchain, Bitcoin HK
Monday, March 5, 2018, 7:00 PM
Garage Society QRC, 19th floor, 299 Queen's Road Central, Sheung Wan HK
Peter Ng shares his experience on running more than 40 industrial-sized mining sites, and his views on the future of cryptocurrency mining. All up, Peter manages 250 MW, enough to power around 200,000 average US homes.

=== ( I made some Notes for a friend who had to leave early) ===

+ What did I learn from someone long active in Crypto Mining? (Peter Ng)

Mainly that Bitcoin mining does not seem to be an intrinsically profitable activity.  In the Q&A we learned; Ng sticks to the power side of mining.  He does not think the actual miner, "the guy driving the car" is going to make money. People "in the pit, servicing the car", ie in other parts of the "mining business" might still do okay.
+ He said he lost money in the early years that he was a miner
+ Now, it seems he is mainly building systems, and selling them off "to the people who want to drive them".  This suggests to me that new equipment might be profitable only for a very brief time - perhaps only a few months - because there is an extremely rapid obsolescence.  So he aims to build a system, and sell it off before it becomes loss-making


+ He said that some quoted co's (Hive and Atlas) have big market caps, and they can raise money cheaply in the stock market, and use their cheap money to buying mining farms.  "No one can compete with them in raising cheap money."  Using their financial edge, they are investing where mining is most likely to be profitable, where power is very cheap.  They are now focused on setting up their mining farms in places where power costs are well below China: places like Washington State and Canada.  (BTW, I heard more or less the same thing from Atlas, when I met with them in January.)
+ Overall average power costs are now too high in HK and in China to make money on a sustained basis.  And it can be "very hot" to be living in a flat stuffed with mining equipment.  Ng seems to have have pockets where he can get subsidized power.  He didn't sat so terribly clearly, but he seems to now be mining crypto in a container in a farming area of Yuen Long.  By living next to chickens, he (or his client) gets access to government subsidized power - that's what I guessed from the clues he gave.

+ Ng doesn't want to see private mining disappear and leave the sector fully dominated by  big listed companies.  He misses the days when half the people at a Meet-up were miners, and the could compare notes at a Meet-up.  That's where he originally learned how to mine.  He said he did not expect miners to disappear.  "There are always new people who want to jump in, and give it a try."  He did not think they would be able to make money (in HK or China).   But many would want to try anyway.  He (& the panel) seemed to be saying it was better to start with GPU mining (NVIDEA & ??? chips) rather that ASIC Mining, and maybe with Ethereum rather than BTC.  Apparently, some of those who had been miners in the past had been bailed out by big jumps in the price of Cryptos.  But if they were relying on price appreciation it would be better to "just open an account on Bitmex, and speculate on prices."

> MORE:  Blockchain Tech & Mining Co's, Listed

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ANOTHER WIN for Trump?

NKorea Willing to Discuss Giving Up Nukes, South Says...

North Korea Is Willing to Discuss Giving Up Nuclear Weapons, South Says

We will see what happens! https://twitter.com/drudge_report/status/970627841535520769 

Photo
 
The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, center, meeting in Pyongyang, the capital, on Monday, with South Korean envoys. Credit North Korean Central News Agency, via European Pressphoto Agency

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has told South Korean envoys that his country is willing to begin negotiations with the United States on abandoning its nuclear weapons and that it would suspend all nuclear and missile tests while it is engaged in such talks, South Korean officials said on Tuesday.

During the envoys’ two-day visit to Pyongyang, the North’s capital, which ended on Tuesday, the two Koreas also agreed to hold a summit meeting between Mr. Kim and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on the countries’ border in late April, Mr. Moon’s office said in a statement.

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