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Charts:: All: 8yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yrL: 12mo L: 5mo L: 2mo B: 1mo B-6d C : 10d B C: 5d B: 2d B/ BTC : ETH : LTC : mktCap / TestBM

Bitcoin fell back on its first attempt at $20,000 (so far)

"But the 2-3 months cycle may be bottoming around year-end.

Clif High thinks the price will be at $13,000 in Feb. & will reach $64k - 100k during 2018, in next wave."

(In edit - at 3/3/2018):

Bitstamp -12month chart ... update

ulK4MhZ.png

BTS .. 12 mo w/ Cycles - bottomed nr. End-Jan.? OLD cycle / 8yr: 12mo : b5  BTC 10 5d

Dnf6W32.png

BTS - all data : 1yrL: 12mo: 5mo: 2mo:

BzRZJ7k.png

All-data

JPpFwYv.png

=====

12/31: 0.5481 x13100+0000=7180:+070:13150Mar(3950):7208/(3950:54.8%)

JAN

01/31: 0.5955 x10240-(000)=6098/0079:10319Mar(1100):6145/(0500:08.1%):+0397:10637 +600
FEB
02/01: 0.5980 x$9400-(000)=5621/0000:$9500Mar(1000):5681/
02/02: 0.6040 x$8000-(000)=4832/0000:$8000Mar(1000):4832/(0400:08.3%):+0300:$8300 +600

02/27: 0.6177 x10738-( -50)=6633:+006:10742Mar(-800):6635/(-700:10.6%):+0150:10853 +115,-0.00: 11.4
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50)=6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/(-750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/01: 0.6159 x10600-(- 50)=6529: -025:10560Mar(-700):6504/(-600:9.22%):+0150:10670 +055,-.003: 11.6
03/02: 0.6102 x11117-(-50)=6784:+023:11140Mar(-850):6798/(-750:11.0%):+0150:11235 +118,-.006: 11.6
03/03: 0.6041 x11459-(-50)=6922:+102:11561Mar(-850):6984/(-800:11.5%):+0100:11695 +245,-.010: 11.9
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x 12750= $3337; x11561= $2601: 4383: H:4588 / 0205/0.535=$383: 11,944 : to New High !

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BTC is approaching $12,000 again. Currently $11,500 for March 2018.
My hedge is now at 11.5% (-$800). I plan to raise it to 25-30% (say $1800-2100) on a Rally to $12,000

 

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I did sell a bit, but BTC hasn't hit my Full target yet - with some minor selling the Hedge is now a touch higher at 14.0%

Looks like there might be some important resistance of the Gold Line (see below), and I may need to lower some Sell Targets.

BTS .. 1-month : 10-d : 2d :

ztmcC05.png

Close-up : 2d :

RG3j21v.png

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TIPS: COMMISSIONS, at Bitmex
In case you wondered...
What is the Commission at Bitmex on a $100Trade, with BTC Price at $11500:
+0.0750%    +0.00000638 XBT : 7.5cents - client pays, when YOU hit the bid or offer
- 0.0250%    - 0.00000212 XBT : 2.5cents + client receives, when someone hits your bid or offer
========
I just put in an order, and with the short delay, my trade wound up hitting the Bid in the market,
so I paid a 3 cent commission on my $50 Trade.
This came after a series of  37 trades, where my bid or offer was left in the market, and got hit.
So for 37 trades in a row, I GOT PAID TO TRADE, though only tiny amounts, maybe 50 cents or so

 

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zRhmGZO.png

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OFF The $11,700 High, fall to $10,500 next?

I got to a 34% Hedge at the top of the latest rally - just before the Drop

BTS ... 5d

erbG2ku.png

I am waiting to see if support near $11,100 holds - but I will not be covering my hedges just yet.

(added in edit, A little later) - 1mo chart

Hv3d8ji.png

Trouble could be coming, a key MA has been broken, let's see how this pattern develops.

A slide towards the 21 day MA (10,431x15min periods), near $10,500 (or lower) is possible

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NOTES: MINING Bitcoins - is it really profitable?
=====

I attended an interesting Meet-up in HK yesterday:

Securing the Bitcoin Blockchain, Bitcoin HK
Monday, March 5, 2018, 7:00 PM
Garage Society QRC, 19th floor, 299 Queen's Road Central, Sheung Wan HK
Peter Ng shares his experience on running more than 40 industrial-sized mining sites, and his views on the future of cryptocurrency mining. All up, Peter manages 250 MW, enough to power around 200,000 average US homes.

=== ( I made some Notes for a friend who had to leave early) ===

+ What did I learn from someone long active in Crypto Mining? (Peter Ng)

Mainly that Bitcoin mining does not seem to be an intrinsically profitable activity.  In the Q&A we learned; Ng sticks to the power side of mining.  He does not think the actual miner, "the guy driving the car" is going to make money. People "in the pit, servicing the car", ie in other parts of the "mining business" might still do okay.
+ He said he lost money in the early years that he was a miner
+ Now, it seems he is mainly building systems, and selling them off "to the people who want to drive them".  This suggests to me that new equipment might be profitable only for a very brief time - perhaps only a few months - because there is an extremely rapid obsolescence.  So he aims to build a system, and sell it off before it becomes loss-making


+ He said that some quoted co's (Hive and Atlas) have big market caps, and they can raise money cheaply in the stock market, and use their cheap money to buying mining farms.  "No one can compete with them in raising cheap money."  Using their financial edge, they are investing where mining is most likely to be profitable, where power is very cheap.  They are now focused on setting up their mining farms in places where power costs are well below China: places like Washington State and Canada.  (BTW, I heard more or less the same thing from Atlas, when I met with them in January.)
+ Overall average power costs are now too high in HK and in China to make money on a sustained basis.  And it can be "very hot" to be living in a flat stuffed with mining equipment.  Ng seems to have have pockets where he can get subsidized power.  He didn't sat so terribly clearly, but he seems to now be mining crypto in a container in a farming area of Yuen Long.  By living next to chickens, he (or his client) gets access to government subsidized power - that's what I guessed from the clues he gave.

+ Ng doesn't want to see private mining disappear and leave the sector fully dominated by  big listed companies.  He misses the days when half the people at a Meet-up were miners, and the could compare notes at a Meet-up.  That's where he originally learned how to mine.  He said he did not expect miners to disappear.  "There are always new people who want to jump in, and give it a try."  He did not think they would be able to make money (in HK or China).   But many would want to try anyway.  He (& the panel) seemed to be saying it was better to start with GPU mining (NVIDEA & ??? chips) rather that ASIC Mining, and maybe with Ethereum rather than BTC.  Apparently, some of those who had been miners in the past had been bailed out by big jumps in the price of Cryptos.  But if they were relying on price appreciation it would be better to "just open an account on Bitmex, and speculate on prices."

> MORE:  Blockchain Tech & Mining Co's, Listed

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A few minutes After posting this on Viber

"Fell to my target below 10,600 - and I am doing some small buying"

I produced this chart : update : 2d :

x2XaSyE.png

Mostly likely next move?

Probably a Rally to about $11,000 - so I reduced my Hedge a little to 31.5%.

So far, the rally looks less vigorous than I expected. So the medium term prognosis here may be More Bearish than I had previously thought.

So if the rally comes and it stay weak, I will plan to Add to the Hedge, near $11,000/

(To my now-losing bet on BCH, I added a small long on XLM/Stellar - I am down over $130 on these combined.)

/ 0.6214 x 10,480= $6,512 ... H:$2050: 31.5% /

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 "Looks less vigorous than I expected. So the medium term prognosis here may be More Bearish than I had previously thought."

(Yup. Seems like a Big Seller was lurking in the background. Then we got the News shock.)

BTC chart ... update : 10d :

vwJ1vHw.png

Bitcoin Dives After SEC Says Crypto Platforms Must Be Registered

Speculation that Binance was hacked adds to crypto concern
    Biggest digital coin breaches $10,000 in two-day decline

Bitcoin slumped back below $10,000 after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reiterated that many online trading platforms for digital assets should register with the agency as exchanges.

The largest cryptocurrency dropped as much as 13 percent to $9,416 after the SEC statement boosted concern that tightening regulation may limit trading ... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-07/bitcoin-dives-after-sec-says-crypto-platforms-must-be-registered

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BELOW $10,500... we have possible support at about $9300, $7800, and the $6,000 Recent Low

BTC- 1 mo :

sLIhwPc.png

(added later): BTC ... update

XLP4XKf.png

 

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Crypto Trading Update: in a "sideways" market
01/31: 0.5975 x$9897 -(000)=5913:0029:$9926Mar(1100):5931/(0500:08.4%):+0321:10218 +600
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-( -50)=6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/( -750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/08: 0.6344 x$9980-(050)=6331: -030:$9950Mar -1500:6312/-2050:32.5%: --500:10065 +085, -.012: 11.2
======
Chg : + 0.0369 +$0083 ----> $418------------------------ H: -1550
Bitcoin Holdings: up 6.2% : $NAV: up 7.1%. on just a 0.8% ($83) rise in BTC prices - since end of Jan.2018
Summary: 0.6344 x $9950= $6,312 ... Hedge: $2050: 32.5%

 

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Still struggling a little with my 1 BCH long position, after selling 1,000 XLM at a small ($6) profit

Yw4qAbg.png

I need about 0.123 BTC on the BCH to breakeven

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Based on my 10d Chart, I called the aborted bounce in advance - (on the Viber chat)

BTS ... update

JttsiLW.png

Yesterday - posted on the Viber chat:

Has rallied back to resistance near $9500 - a good place for a reversal to down

Today:

Yeah, prices reversed there - $9500, and then fell again, down almost $1000... I misssed the prior bounce from the $8500 level.  It is now being retested, so I am doing some small buying here on the retest,  But I still think about $8000 or lower is still probable

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The price now looks like it has tried to bottom near $8500, which is above my $8000 target

So I am redrawing the trend lines to show a possible bottom near $8500

BTS ... 2mos :

hB5sSO9.png

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Bitcoin has stalled - and that $8000 support level may still be in play

BTS ... 12-mo : 5-mo : 10-d : 5-d :

x6eaIFm.png

UCQ19Sd.png

 

STlNSeX.png

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I DID STRONG BUYING on the Drop below $8,000 - which I had forecast on the Viber chat  // Hedge: now < 4%!!

BTS .... 1-mo : 2-day :

KBEf0zl.png

(From Viber yesterday):

+ Bitcoin futures - today is the last trading for March futures (I believe)

+ And BTC prices are back under pressure - Spot is falling fast, and is near $8700 now

+ There may be some selling pressure today until 2:45pm Chicago time, since that is when the March CBOE contract stops trading

+ $8000?  it is possible, but there is also some support above that -- I will post a chart here... If that support line goes, then we may see $8000 or so -- even as early as early tomorrow (2-3am?) ... I might do some small buying there (near $8600) ... did some minor buying

(Then early morning - I woke up in before dawn):

+ March and June have fallen below $8000 - and I am Buying

(Later):

+ BTC dropped below $8000 and I did a lot of buying.

+ My hedge is now down to near 3% !! 0.6865 x$8160= $5,602 ... H:-0200: 03.6%

 

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E (on Viber): Do you think that is it for the fall or would it go below 8000 again?

+ A retest is possible,  but I wanted to bring my hedge to the lowest level in a Long time, because I was not sure we would get another chance.  One thing that got me to buy (so heavily) was that the selling volume near the lows was not heavy

E : Got this. Thank you for all sharing

+ I let the market tell me - haha

+ I can have a view -like: The market can fall to support near $8000.  But if the action is not confirming my expectations there (in terms of volume & chart pattern), then I will rethink.

E : That is the trick, understanding the market

+ It never works well when you try to TELL THE MARKET where to go, and ignore its signals.  I am not saying you are doing that. 

But I know many who do,  Example:  so many crypto holders have told me: The market will go back up!  It is going to $50,000, $100,000! (or whatever) 

HOW CAN THEY KNOW THAT?  my attitude is "anything can happen" -- and I watch for the signals

BTS - 2d

pUEE8f1.png

+ I see some signs of a Low being in place on THAT chart - What do YOU SEE ??

+ But one short term chart is not enough... to know what a high degree of certainty.  My present time is to ride my very-lightly hedged position higher until the market starts to look tire and hits resistance levels.  There is a chance that a very important low may be in place, and I will post some charts later showing why I think that mat be possible

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LONGER TERM

BTS ... 1-yr-Log :

45J42Pa.png

BTS ... 10d

ROWhxJY.png

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BTS ... 2d : 1mo :

v2hwjen.png

SizUXcf.png

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BTS ... 1-mo :

2PNrQIq.png

(Posted on Viber over the weekend... & this morning)

+ BTC was tired.  The weak bounce gave way to a retest, and now Lower Lows near ‎7500-7600

+ I now have Zero hedge, and I considering going to a small Negative hedge

+ Nice JUMP UP on strong volume today

+ This is the best Jump on best volume in weeks.  best chance yet that the bottom is now in place

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Nice Jump in BTC overnight to $8950, I am still running at 0% Hedge

BTS ... 10d

jkkaVFU.png

Might do a 5-10% hedge near $9000 based on the chart

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01/31: 0.5975 x$9897-(000)=5913:-029:$9926Mar(1100):5931/(-500:08.4%):+0321:10218 +600
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(-50)=6680:-100:10950Mar(-800):6680/(-750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
03/15: 0.6865 x$8250-(050)=5664:-090:$8160Mar(-250):5602/(-200:03.6%):+0100:$8160 -090,-.000: 9.40
03/21: 0.6869 x$9093-(000)=6246:-013:$9080Mar(-100):6237/(-147:02.3%):+0103:$9096 +003,-.000: 9.67
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x 12750= $3337; x$9080:$2043: 4194: H:4588 / 0394/0.671=$587: $9,667
0.6869 x$9080= $6,145 ... H:-147: -02.3%

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BTS ... 10d : 1-mo :

rhzQxPH.png

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 08:44 Bitcoin stumbles as Binance faces potential regulatory backlash / MarketWatch

7SCjCrF.png

After a solid start to the week, the No. 1 digital currency stumbled out of the blocks Thursday following a report that the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange is facing potential headwinds in Japan.

Binance, the biggest trading exchange by 24-hour volume, according to CoinMarketCap, has been operating in Japan without a license, and according to a Nikkei report, regulators in Japan are set to take action.

“The Financial Services Agency is the world’s largest virtual currency exchange company and plans to issue warnings based on the revised fund settlement law to Hong Kong-based [Binance]. The company was operating in Japan with no registration and judged that investors could suffer damage,” a translated version of the Nikkei report said.

The possible move by the FSA follows the January hack of Coincheck Inc., where over $500 million in NEM coins were stolen, raising security questions about exchanges operating in Japan. In the wake of the hack, the FSA said it would conduct inspections of exchanges that are operating in Japan without a license.

However, hours after the news, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao took to Twitter to rebuke the reporting from the Nikkei, saying: “It does not make sense for JFSA to tell a newspaper before telling us, while we have an active [dialogue] going on with them.”

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